2005 Season First Half Review, Second Half Predictions

This is the only part I'm not convinced about.

nl east: nationals run seems to have run its course, sadly enough. i see them more or less falling out in august, but i hope they win the world series. don't know much abt the braves, but their story sounds incredible. i really don't know what the fuck is up with that team. and yeah i'll predict 'em to win the division, why the fuck not, but florida def ain't done yet.

al east: boston's best, easily, and while he may be something of an unknown quantity, schilling's coming back soon, and epstein&co have shown they can plug holes on the fly better than anyone in the game. i know damn little about baltimore, but i just can't take them seriously as a contender, at least not yet. sorry jq. on the yankees side, wang is shouldering way too much of the load and will eventually sound their death knell. the starting pitching is a shambles, and the bullpen isn't a whole lot better, and it just doesn't matter how good the offense is. for the yankees to win the division (assuming a full strength sox squad), giambi's resurgence has to be real, pavano has to come back in something resembling 2004 form, johnson has to shape up, and wang has to continue to betray everything we thought we knew about how peripheral pitching stats predict future performance. and even IF all that happens, the staff'll still be carrying a fifth starter that has no business in the major leagues (i actually have no idea what the details are on either brown's or wright's injuries, but i'm assuming they're done), and a pen that's only 2 men deep in a close game...this is an embarassing team.

ok i'm gonna wrap the rest of this up real quick like:

rest on nl: cards, pads.

al central: sox: good, but not that good. there are probably about 4-5 teams in the AL that could take 'em, including thirsty young punks like the a's & twins. don't really know why hermanson is the closer when he's probably the third or fourth best man in the pen. i hate them. don't seem em losing the division, but it'd be nice.

al west: angels obv.

al wc: god knows.

nl wc: don't care.

The division is tight enough that three or four teams will be able to hang around for a while, but right now, I can't see Boston not winning. I agree completely with John's take on the Yankees. The Jays are essentially fucked without Halladay (even though the offense has been clicking again as of late), which means if they can pull off a minor miracle and be a few games above .500 on July 31 and only 4-5 games out of the Wild Card then they've GOT to go for it at the deadline with Halladay back (hopefully) at the start of August.

Like I said on another thread: Cards 2005 in NL = Eagles 2004-5 in NFC. This is self-explanatory, right?

AL Central: I still think the Twins are a better team, as the front three in their rotation is at least the equal of Chicago's front three, and that's all that will matter come the playoffs. Also, I have no idea how Chicago is 10th in MLB in runs scored, given their OBP & SLG. But their division lead is so big right now that it'd take a major collapse for them to miss the playoffs. Prediction: Garland won't win 20.

AL West: Go A's.

angels, white sox, boston win the divisions. wild card? i hate the yankees and i hope they don't do it, because it would be sweet to see them miss out completely, but i'm not sold on either the a's or the twins staying ahead of them.

frank thomas, second half mvp for white sox? he's got 11 HR in 25 games or something like that. he's been much better than expected. palmeiro, 30 hrs. giambi, .280 something with 25 HR. also, i read some stupid article (probably on espn.com) about how manny ramirez was "done" because his average was down. morons. he's still got it. ortiz might win mvp this year.

nl predix:

nl west: padres, gotta be the padres. cards win the nl central. braves once again win the nl east. i used to hate the braves, but now i just love seeing them and their players prove people wrong. julio franco is ten years older than sammy sosa and playing like ten years younger. smoltz is awesome. andruw having the beltre breakout w/lower average, but this breakout is more likely to stick around for a few more seasons.

derrek lee probably won't hit .380 in the second half, something he agrees with. no triple crown there, sorry. I think he'll finish in the .340-.350 range, though. if the cubs make the wild card (possible?), he's gotta be the MVP. if they don't, it'll probably end up being andruw or pujols.

also, ken griffey jr. will finish with a .290 average and 35 HR and 100 rbi. i hope so, anyway. and if he gets traded, i think the cubs need to take a shot at him. balls out, cubbies.

AL:

Red Sox, yeah sure. O's don't have the pitching depth, Yankees don't have the talent, and the B-Jays have Shea Hillenbrand (and Miguel Batista) (TRADE HIM NOW JP!). Jorge Cantu wins the D-Rays' Triple Crown; no one cares. Red Sox solve the 2B "dilemma" in-house (I hope). Miguel Tejada cakewalks to another MVP. Derek Jeter takes 15 balls off the face in 1 game, shakes it off, hits game-winning seeing-eye single, inspires another 150,000 words about his hottness.

White Sox, oy vey. They'd have to die to screw this up, tho I imagine they'll come down to earth (and hover around .500) going foward. Twinkies, meh. I don't see them doing much of anything, especially in light of SUPER-ROIDED INDIANS POWAH! Tiggers maintain (tho Maggs & CG will probably get hurt again), Royals plantain. Allard Baird is turned into Olestra. Calvin Pickering comes back up, hits 15 HRs in August-September. Dustin Hermanson will hopefully implode now, instead of imploding next year in the wake of a overpriced multi-year deal. People start to name-drop Jhonny Peralta's name for consideration in The Big Three. Unworthy (tho mighty fine) Cy Young candidate folks will love chatting about come late August: Jeremy Bonderman.

OAKTOWN BABY! Angels are wanged up, Rangers are effed up, and the A's are smmmmmmmokin'. (Seattle gets what they deserve for dropping all their ducats on a one-year wonder and a servicable-but-aging first baseman.) A's take first in early September, Angels hang on for wild card. Rangers' pitching staff poops itself, tho people actually start to give Chris Young the time of day. Bobby Crosby gets consideration as the Shannon Stewart Stark Invitational frontrunner, and Nick Swisher finishes the year with 30+ HRs (possibly away from the lower 3rd of the batting order, too). And (watch out) Jason Kendall gets his slugging ABOVE his OBP. OAKTOWN! Oh - and Buck Showalter gets raked over the coals. Again.

The NL wild card looks to becoming out of the East, barring some miracle moves by DePodesta in LA. I'll say my April view was all wet and the Braves and *sigh* Mets will be the two survivors.

A big enough Chisox collapse to lose the division is unlikely but possible. I can see a nutty final week where 5-7 teams are still vying for 2 spots.

The Astros' recent hot streak is illusory.

Eff one DC. Them going somewhere now does nothing for baseball except inflate Jim O'Brien's out-of-whack ego. (Oh yay for wanting to trade for Preston Wilson, you dingbat.) Bravos wahey, though their pitching staff, w/ Hudson & Thomson DLing, is suspect. Phillies need pitching and/or an extra 15-20 feet at home. Show Brett Myers some love! Marlins? Maybe, if they weren't deadset on shooting themselves in the Burnett. Let's go Mets? If Willie can fix his damn lineup and pitching rotation & figure out what's what in the pen, maybe. Heilman (& Seo?) join the rotation in the next month.

Central is done. Astros = fakers, and any trade they make to solidify a run towards futility is only going to keep them where they are. Cubs need to lose Dusty Baker and/or brainwash him into playing folks that don't have AARP membership cards. Reds need to lose their ownership group - if that fails, tho, they can just off themselves by trading away Dunn & Kearns. Pierats might actually be the up-and-comers in this division. That's scary. Ian Snell in the rotation for good soon? Ryan Doumit as the new Craig Wilson? Jose Mesa as someone else's problem? Oh, wait - MATT C'S BREWERS IN '06! I imagine Overbay is The Guy this trading season, and if the Brewers make a trade on the level of the moves they've made in the past year+, then they are good to go going forward.

I guess someone has to win, so it shd be the Pads. However, I'm holding out hope that the Dodgers stop hurting themselves and make a run at respectability. Playing HOME RUN DERBY PARTICIPANT Hee Seop Choi full-freaking-time might be a step in the right direction. Firing Jim Tracy and his LaRussian busy-handery might be a bigger step. Cutting the ding donging bait on Scott Erickson = like duh! 'Zona is pfffft - way to fund the Russ Ortiz Balls for Bats Charity, Mr. G. And anyone that actually gives a crap about the Rockies probably A) has Todd Helton on their fantasy team, B) had Clint Barmes on their fantasy team, or C) is waiting for JD Closser to bust out the whuppin' stick for their fantasy team. FREE JOE KENNEDY!

V Zambrano has actually pitched rather well the last 6 weeks, he stays in the Met rotation. Todd Helton seems like right fit for Mets 1b, but I worry.

Baltimore's tough; dunno how they can keep it up, but they might stick around long enough to give the Sox a scare; if this past weekend (and, uh, the last three years) proved anything, it's that Baltimore can hang with them on the field. Least likely subplot of 2005 Yankees: MELKY's scorched-earth ROY campaign. Halladay getting bunged is a damn shame, but that leads me to Bold Prediction #1:

AL Central: JON GARLAND FOR AL CY YOUNG! That Bonderman's a serious candidate (and he certainly is!) speaks volumes as to the dearth of quality AL starters. Unless someone - possibly Santana - goes on a Santana-like run, Garland's got as good a chance as anyone. That walk rate is no joke, haters. If Buehrle keeps it up, they could split the vote, but Halladay isn't going to get it, Clement's getting the hairy eyeball from everyone who matters, and the writers would rather run in front of traffic than give it to the Gambler. Accordingly, White Sox win the Central (how can they not?), but the Twins, with Rad Bradke leading the charge as ace taco maker like he worked on Thayer St, make it fun and capture the wild-card in the process. Love a Pronk, but next year it's yours, Tribe.

AL West: Despite stone-cold Chris Young, Rangers don't have a shot. Vladdy's exactly as valuable (ie. MOST) as he was last year for the Angels, but it's A's, A's, A's all the way - Haren and Blanton are turning the corner, Swisher's blasting, and Duchscherer, Street, and old friend Jairo Garcia combine to form a lights-out minimum-wage 'pen. This will be a good race.

NL East: Nats could be paper tigers, especially if Hernandez breaks down, what with that run differential, blah blah. They can keep winning. It's a weak division. I'm no Braves believer - but how 'bout the Marlins? Can Mike Lowell hit his weight? Can Dontrelle carry the team? Dark horse NL CYA candidate who won't get a goddamn vote: John Patterson. GET ONE DECISION.

NL Central: Cards. The Eagles analogy is OTM, right down to their inevitable steamrolling by Boston's finest. Way into the Brewers, and know they'll get max value for Overbay, but not yet - next year, Brewers/Indians Series a scary good prospect. Bold Prediction #2: Astros, caught up in Melkymania, trade Koby + the Rog to New York. Reds trade everybody, get nothing in return. Eric Milton gives up 70 tacos.

NL West vs AL West in a nutshell: Oakland, 7.5 back, are perfectly acceptable contenders. Dodgers, 7.5 back, are doomed. Pads win this one like Carrie Underwood - because someone had to. Derrek Lee for MVP just on gaudiness alone, although the Cubbies will strive to win 85.

Pujols will come closer to the Triple Crown than Derrek.

AL ROY is Chacin or Street? (is Mauer eligible?)

Is Cordero a rookie? I didn't realize.

all i can say is that the rumors of the o's demise have been greatly exaggerated. maybe i'm crazy or blinded by homerriffic devotion, but i honestly don't see how the yanks or bosox are markedly better teams on balance.

al central: um, ozzie guillen is crazy and i love it. what was once a pretty boring, shitty division has turned in to the wwe. i don't like the white sox one bit, but i like that they've made things exciting.

al west: viva los angeles!

nl east: anybody follow english soccer? y'know how there are some coaches that seem to excel at getting teams promoted to the premier league, but not much else? i have much fear that bowden and robby are going to something to mess w/ the nats' delicate balance. i tengo even more miedo about the fact that so many misfortunes have befallen the braves and yet they still gain!

i really don't care about the other two divisions except for hee sop choi!

one question: who hits a brick wall first, derek lee or brian roberts?

The Nats need a big bat to put with Jose Guillen, but being a serfdom franchise for the MLB, I doubt that they will be able to make a deal happen. Best hope is that Vinnie Castilla somehow gains some Denver power or something and that Guillen continues to be a big bat at the plate. They will have Vidro for the second half, which should help some. I think the Nats are probably due for a seven game losing streak, as their dice have been coming up boxcars too many times in a row. Then again, if everyone stays healthy and productive, they might pull it off.

I still think the ATL is the choice pick in the NL East until someone de-thrones them. They are going to get back all three starters right after the break and Chipper Jones is already re-habbing in the minors. I'll be suprised if Andruw Jones can keep up the homer binge and would not be suprised if he only hits 10 jacks from here until the end of the season. Braves fans have reason to feel good going from here, as they have the youngest group of starters in the NL. They still need Chipper back, as they need another consistent power hitter. With Chipper back and Jordan on the DL (and possibly his starting job gone), only Chipper and Estrada are the only starters over 30 and Estrada just turned 30 a week or two ago.

The Marlins are getting knicked up in their pitching and Juan Pierre and Mike Lowell are having off years, especially Lowell. Encarnacion and Gonzales have both been playing above their career marks, which probably means they will probably slip in the second half. Unless Lowell comes out of his funk in a big way with Pierre getting on base, I just can't pick them. One has to wonder where the Marlins might be if they could have signed Pudge up a couple of years ago, as they seem still seem like a decent team, but seem to have a missing piece.

Al Leiter is finished, I can't see them sticking with him for much longer. As much grief as Tommy Glavine has gotten in the Mets thread, be happy Leiter is playing for the Fish this year. Glavine's first half looks workable compared to Leiter.

I could see the Mets finishing with around 82 to 86 wins, but I could also see the ghost of Art Howe returning with a second half collapse. I think much depends on keeping everyone healthy and seeing if David Wright can keep it up for the entire year.

The Phils look like a team that should contend, but they won't be in the chase. Burrell has had a nice first half, but now Thome is a wreck. Abreu and Rollins are solid. Their pitching is pretty inconsistent as ever. They will probably finish around .500.

forgot all about vidro.

mlb is giving bowden money to play w/ pre-7/31 b/c the nats attendance has far exceeded expectations. i think they already had a 20 million profit in may or june.

what does this mean? who's jim o'brien?

...but, yeah, i agree w/ the sentiment. jim bowden really fancies himself.

The Cards are going to walk into the playoffs. One has to wonder if Grudzielanek and Eckstein can keep up their good seasons and if wonderboy Scott Rolen will ever come back to health. Watching the game last night they posted an odd stat that they can't get anyone to hit batting #2, Walker was used for a long time and he hit in the .230s and they have used Edmonds for the past 15 games or so and he was hitting like .210. Kind of odd. Reggie Sanders is quietly putting up a nice year.

The Brewers and Pirates have both had some good weeks and really poor weeks. If you could combine them into one uberclub, they would maybe be the best team in the NL. Since that isn't going to happen, I don't see either one getting past .500 and one or both could really slide in the second half.

The Cubs are starting to get healthy, but I don't feel good about things. For them to make a run at the wildcard, as catching the Cards is not going to happen, they are going to have to pop off a big winning streak. They seem to not be able to pitch when they are hitting and they can't hit when they are pitching AKA the same ole same ole. Burnitz has played a whole lot better than you might figure, so him and Lee will probably slide some back to Earth in the second half.

The Reds are a mess and nothing is going to change about that until they get some new ownership and management. It is nice to see The Grif make it to the allstar break without falling to pieces, maybe he will get to the end of the year intact. If they could somehow unload Sean Casey to someone for a pitcher pitcher not a belly itcher, things would be much improved. Unfortuantely I think Sean Casey is the new Ray Knight and will be kept around for "character" reasonsor something of the sort.

Are the Astros for real? The starting pitching is real but I am not as sure about Morgan Ensberg or their bullpen after Lidge and Wheeler. They will need Brandon Backe to give them some starts like the 2nd half last year and the playoffs and Jason Lane is going to have give them some more at the plate or somehow find someone via trade. Taveras is a nice suprise and I am kicking myself for letting him and Felipe Lopez get away this year in fantasy baseball, as I had both for a short time early in the season.

NL Central: duh

NL East: The Braves, although I'd be more confident if they decided to spin a couple of those amazing farm kids for, say, Jason Schmidt.

NL Wild Card: Every year some team starts fast, fades late, and just misses. That will be the Nats. So who wins, then? Obviously no one in the west. Whoever it is, they're not going anywhere. I'm guessing one of the east teams, either the Marlins, Phillies or Mets. I'm guessing the Marlins.

AL West: Angels.

AL Central: Chisox. Still waiting for the fade, but if they pull the rumored Jason Schmidt & Omar Vizquel trade, this shit is over.

AL East: Yanks or Sox, with the Orioles hanging around. I'm going to hesitantly say the Sox, but I'm not too convinced.

AL Wildcard: Yanks/Sox vs. Twins vs. Indians vs. A's... The A's are looking really good right now, but they're bound to have some dry spells. The Indians couldn't possibly do it, could they? That leaves the Sox/Yanks or the Twins, and while I like Johan a lot, the Twinks don't seem like they have enough offense or starting pitching depth to last against the Yankees/Sox.

Playoffs:

Cards over Padres
Braves over whoever
Angels over Sox
Yanks over Chisox
Cards over Braves
Angels over Yanks
Cards over Angels

Arizona is probably the closest contender, if you can call it that, as their pitching is really sucky and one of those injury prone hitters by odds will go down for the count.

LA is actually worse than their record makes them appear, as they went 15-8 in April and 25-40 since May 1st. I don't think there is enough Kirk Gibson mojo in Dodger Stadium to get this club to make a run.

SF starting pitching is terrible. You have to think it will improve, but without Bonds, I can't see this club making a move towards the top. Old Man Vizquel has played pretty good.