I was
bored in a meeting thinking about baseball and I thought, as a manager, I could break a player down to 4 key simple statistical criteria to rate/assess a fielder or a pitcher's performance. (Feel free to comment or critique.)
For fielders (and in order of priority):
On-base percentage (OBP)
Speed
Slugging Percentage (SLG)
Fielding Range/Ability
For pitchers:
On-base percentage allowed (OBPA)
Strikeouts (K)
Walks allowed (BBA)
Home Runs allowed (HRA)
On-base percentage rules both categories because the greater chance you can get on-base (primarily hits/walks) and not give up a sacred out, the better probability that a run will score. And conversely, the more a pitcher can prevent a runner from getting on base (OBPA), the better the performance. Blah blah blah this is elementary sabermetric talk.
Speed is probably undervalued by the sabermetricians but based on my research: getting from 1st to 3rd (or 2nd to home) on a single base hit (the most common hit) is equivalent to a walk (ie, a free base). Speed also complements good defense with better coverage and range for fielding.
Slugging percentage (bases per at bat) relies on the same principle, the ability to produce more bases out of an at-bat. And for runners on base (not just in scoring position), it increases the probability of a run scored.
Fielding accompanies good pitching. Simply: Preventing fewer runs scored increases your chance of winning. Simple, yet often overlooked by abermetricians, though probably overvalued by conventional baseball wisdom.
Strikeouts
As a pitcher, preventing a runner from getting on base without the ball being put in play (running the risk of a fielder not making a put-out, or making an error, or the ball being a solid hit) is critical. The strikeout also measures the effectiveness of a pitcher's deception of batters, as well as the degree of control a pitcher exhibits.
Walks allowed
Employing similar logic as above, control being the major factor here. The more walks allowed, the less deceiving and less control a pitcher exhibits. This also ties into On Base Percentage Allowed as every batter who gets on base represents a potential run scored.
Home Runs allowed
Outfielders sometimes play out of position, some outfielders are slower than others, and some outfielders do not have good fielding skills. These factors contribute to the probability of extra-base hits allowed. However, the pitcher has no control over these factors. The pitcher does have control over serving up a meatball that ends up in the parking lot or the bleachers. And that's no good at all.
Is there anything obvious I'm overlooking?
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 4 February 2004 02:17 (twenty-two years ago)
Absolutely (2B/SS defense vs. a 1B's), but fielding performance would be assessed by the fielder's ability to play "in-position", range to intersect the ball's path, fielding the ball, and throwing the ball quickly and accurately. All fielding positions require the above.
― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 4 February 2004 06:42 (twenty-two years ago)
There's some (relatively minor) stuff that I wonder how best to quantify. Jeter, for instance, seems to get from first to third on a single more often than the average bear. I guess for it to really matter, that will be reflected in more runs scored--but it would be nicer to be able to say
why he might score more runs. Also, how do you factor in the effect of having a Mondesi or Sheffield in right? There are bases and runs prevented simply by the reputations of their arms; they don't even have to necessarily
do anything. James is supposed to be working on a grand unified theory of defense, but there seem to be so many variables at work that I have a hard time imagining it...
― mookieproof (mookieproof), Wednesday, 4 February 2004 14:36 (twenty-two years ago)
I hate stats, but if I had to quantify quality, I would do it as follows.
FIELDER
Fielding %
On Base %
Home Runs
OPS
This doesn't account for the advantages in Sheffield's arm, or Ichiro's speed, but no stat can.
PITCHER
ERA
K
BB
Opponent OBP
Pitching is a lot easier. But even this is not fair to guy like Pettite, who don't get ridiculous amounts of Ks, walk their fair share of hitters, and have relatively high ERAs. Still, he won 21 games last year, while seemingly enjoying les run support than the rest of the Yankees staff. I do not know if that is really true, but as a Yankee fan, it sure seems like we don't produce when Pettite is on the mound.
Also, these stats only account for starting pitchers.
― Tommy Baseball, Sunday, 15 February 2004 19:43 (twenty-two years ago)
seven years pass...
two years pass...
A guy proposed an interesting idea on James's site today: "Game Score Pitching Wins." You just add up all game scores for the year and divide by 100--20 still functions as a benchmark, but run support makes no difference now. His AL league leaders for 2013:
Darvish - 20.22
Scherzer - 20.09
Iwakuma - 19.96
Verlander - 18.81
Shields - 18.62
Hernandez - 18.33
Sale - 18.25
Tillman - 18.12
Wilson - 17.92
Quintana - 17.88
Junk stat, far from perfect, but easy to calculate and better than wins.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 13 November 2013 22:07 (twelve years ago)