Swinging for the Fences: Does Missing Matter? (BP Article)

Here's the concluding section of that article:

The verdict is that OPS has nothing whatsoever to do with changes in a player's SAM[swing and miss ratio = (# of times swinging and missing) / (total # of pitches seen)]. Neither do OBP, Slugging percentage, isolated power, batting average, walks per plate appearance, home runs per plate appearance, pitches per plate appearance, hittable pitches per plate appearance, or balls per plate appearance. Strikeouts per plate appearance were just about the only stat that increased with an increase in SAM.

The next time that the announcer’s voice drips with disgust at a swinging strike, remember that overall, the big whiffs are meaningless. It won’t help when that last strike ends the game, leaving the bases loaded in the ninth, but it might end the bias against the free swingers that baseball’s held for decades. A strikeout, it turns out, is just another out. Take your cuts, men.

So, swinging and missing, in and of itself, is irrelevant as it relates to a batter's overall performance.

This is different to last week's, discussion re: low K totals for the A's this year.

The A's as a team are probably maximizing something like BB/K, or (BB * #of pitches seen)/K.

I never read the article, so it is difficult for me to comment on its content as a whole. What I do need to comment on, however, is this statement:

"A strikeout, it turns out, is just another out. Take your cuts, men."

Bull. This has to be obvious to everyone, right? A swinging strike is just another strike as long as it isn't the third. A swinging or taken third strike is the worst that a player can do for his offense. One may argue that the double play affects his team more adversely than the strikeout. The problem with that argument is that the player did not directly hit into a double play. He hit a ball that happened to be turned into a double play. It could have been a line drive or a ground ball. Either way, he was giving his offense a chance by putting the ball into play. The defense simply made a good play.

Runners on first and third, no outs. What's worse: a ground ball or a strikeout? I'd take the ground ball. It may end up in a double play, but the defense still needs to make the play. Regardless, the run will score. A strikeout does nothing. It doesn't move over the runner. It does not put the batter on base. It does not drive in a run. You or I could have done the same in that slugger's position. All it does is skip his at-bat and put pressure on the following batter to put the ball in play.

Nothing more frustrating than the strikeout. One out, runner on third. What are you begging of that slugger? Don't strike out. Put the ball in play. When you put the ball in play, good things can happen. Even if the player gets on base on an error, he got on base. A strikeout is always an out unless the ball goes to the backstop. If it does, that slugger sure as hell better be running his ass off down to first base.

I would like to see a comparison between Adam Dunn and Juan Pierre. One or no out, runner on third. How many RBI does each player get? Granted, Dunn will get some with the home run. Still, I'm curious. My bet is that the comparison is very close. Maybe Pierre drives in more. Considering Dunn has 87 RBI on 35 homers, my bet is that 60% of his total RBI come off of home runs.

Whatever though. Just trying to start some chatter.

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What gear said.

>the player did not directly hit into a double play. He hit a ball that happened to be turned into a double play. It could have been a line drive or a ground ball. Either way, he was giving his offense a chance by putting the ball into play.<

Naaah. A guy who swings at a pitch likely to result in a slow grounder with a man on first is guilty guilty guilty!

"A swinging or taken third strike is the worst that a player can do for his offense."

So, wait - if he attempts to put the ball in play (which you want, JL) and fails, then he's doing the worst thing possible for his offense. But if he actually does puts the ball in play and gets out, then he's at least trying? The swing is the "try", not the end result! Meaning:

"A strikeout, it turns out, is just another out. Take your cuts, men."