CHW - BOS 2005 ALDS Thread

If they can come back and win 7-6 at home in Game 1, then they'll make a believer out of me. Otherwise, their asses are going home in four and Ozzie Guillen will have to put off his retirement for a few years.

and the best record in the AL is "fumes"? They won five in a row to close the season, nonchalantly sweeping a series on the road that their arch-rival HAD to have.

No one would even be saying a bad word about the Sox's September if Cleveland hadn't won EIGHTEEN of TWENTY games before faltering. I mean, what the hell can you do against that kind of a run? Cleveland was out of their mind. Doesn't take away the best record in the AL, nor that nice five-game win streak to close, with all five starters looking very sharp in the process.

Hardly ... they were a Padres-like 36-34 in the second half before closing with those five straight wins (four of which were close, very much in line with how they've been winning all season). A week ago, just about everyone agreed that the Indians were a better team (and I think the Sox believed it too), and one 1-6 stretch doesn't change that. Cleveland's Pythagorean record is six games better than Chicago's, and you can thank a gaudy 35-19 record in one-run games for that.

The White Sox are a 90 win team, tops, who got lucky. Most of their starters have been wildly inconsistent in the second half, and their hitters can't get on base (24th in OBP in MLB).

None of this is news.

Contreras' last 10 starts:
IP/ER:
7	0
6.2	4
8	1
7	3
7	3
7.2	0
5.2	3
8	1
9	1
8	2
Buehrle's last 10 starts
IP/ER
7	6
7	4
8	1
7	4
7	1
6	5
6.1	4
6	4
9	1
5.2	0
Garcia's last 10 starts:
IP/ER
8	0
7	3
8	1
4.1	8
7	1
7	3
5.1	7
6.1	4
8	1
7	2
Garland:
IP/ER
5.1	5
7	2
7.2	0
4.1	5
9	0
6	7
8	1
7.1	5
6.2	3
6.2	2
McCarthy:
IP/ER
5	6
4.2	6
6.1	3
3	5
7.2	0
7	0
5.2	2
3	1
8	1
6.1	3

Aside from a few bad outings from Garcia and some mediocre ones from Burly/Garland, the White Sox's starting pitching has been commendable down the stretch.

So it will be Boston's bats vs. our arms. The White Sox will need to get guys like Everett, Rowand, Crede, Pierzynski and Iguchi going, and hope that Podsednik and Konerko can keep up what they've been doing. I foresee a lot of 8-6, 7-5 type games and probably one pitcher's duel.

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          1st half (ERA, WHIP)            2nd half (ERA, WHIP)
Garland        3.38, 1.08                      3.65, 1.28
Garcia         3.53, 1.18                      4.28, 1.34
Buerhle        2.58, 1.11                      3.84, 1.28
Contreras      4.26, 1.32                      2.96, 1.14

The Boston offense is just way too much for about any pitching staff. I like Buehrle's chances against Boston, but the rest of their starters I don't excite me. Chicago is going to have to hit way above their heads to win this series.

I could see the White Sox beating the Red Sox, but I will have to see it happen to become a believer.

My picks to click in this series are Carl Everett and Mark Buehrle.

And Mind..., where do the BoSox starters stand in comparison, in the second half? I admit, I don't know much about their stats but my impression is that Boston's starting rotation has been pretty brutal of late.

But with the White Sox, if the pitching goes, they go.

Game 1 is key. Contreras vs. Clement.

The thing is, you can't not pitch to both. That's the advantage of there being two of them.

Seconded. Last year I almost died.

I have to say I'm with jhoshea all the way, here.

"There are White Sox fans?"

Yeah, there are a few on this board. I mean, if you've been around here for more than
a day.

What is it about the south siders that prompts you to play this game where you pretend that you're ignoring them ('cos we all know that your vain self really ain't...)?

C'mon east coast...unburden yourselves. We all know how important guilt is in your culture.

Please. God I wish you snobs would all get struck by a New Orleans-style hurricane.

on the other hand GO WHITE SOX, eff a sabermetric fatwa

I'm not sure I want to know what you mean by that.

Red Sox in 5, if only due to my abiding faith in Jose Contreras to turn into a human taco machine every time he faces Boston. Come back to the AL East, comrade!

Listen, you're in the playoffs, time to toughen up. I know you're used to be ignored, but now people are going to make fun of you for being ignored and for not existing. I know it's hard to hear that you don't exist. But I think what needs to happen is for all the white sox fans of the world to band together, forming a bond stronger than east coast elitism. Maybe if someone has a biggish couch, you could all watch the game together?

Please. We got this condescending shit from the Cubs for years. We know your gaslighting game...it's covering up for some nasty crimes coming from your side of the country. And that's one thing about the playoffs that you don't know.

Ignored, our ass. You know damn well that the Sox are a little problem for you history-wise, as if the Black Sox invented throwing games.

I can't believe you east coast types are still trying to slide this nonsense under our noses. Fact is, you are obsessed with the White Sox - to the point of lying to the press and getting your handlers to cause all sorts of trouble for us.

Does that make us 'whiners'? No - it means you screwed us, and it's time for you to pay. Why, you wouldn't even be coming here out of nowhere if the situtation didn't require one of your patented 'handles'.

Use other cliches next time. Irish people don't take kindly to being talked down to by their WASP inferiors and their lackeys.

hey now, there are more than a few white sox fans on the east coast! i've been wearing my hat all day, man.

and hey, it's just baseball, folks.

Coincidence? Oh please cut the crap, already. Awwww...I'm sorry things aren't as 'romantic' as they seem. Boo-hoo.

All I can say is, give me more. I want details. Like, how exactly is hbo involved? Is it against just chicago teams, or the whole midwest? And who's in on it, mlb, the government, Tim McCarver and Joe Buck, Steve Bartman?

For starters, you folks are fond of show trials. Shall we talk about the one you tried to provoke back in 1992, or is this getting a little too ugly for you?

Fact is, they were stalking my brother when he was in Little League, fer chrissakes - how many other kids did they do this to? Oh yeah, and they've been harassing my family forever. Oh yeah, please do go on about how the Irish are 'white' and all...that really makes up for seventy-five years of slander, libel and extortion. Is it really that difficult? Do some research on 'nativism' and the fears regarding the Irish community and Irish power during the teens and twenties.

I'm fucking fed up with the bullshit, and I really couldn't care if you want to stage another 'show trial' on yet another bulletin board. Suit yourselves. Spend your whole lives in your vain morality play if you so desire.

Oh yeah, and the gambling thing. No, that's not a 'conspiracy'. That's the sort of history you might learn if you weren't masturbating to baseball statistics all the time.

HermansonSchmermanson. If all goes well, Jenks should be the closer next year, and a dominate one.

-- oops (don'temailmenicelad...) (webmail), August 26th, 2005 3:16 AM. (Oops) (link)

um, I meant at the end of this year. yeah.

Meanwhile Chicago did what they did best -- pitch well, and score just enough runs to win (except for the Game 1 abherration. They obviously can't expect to score 14 runs too often). Their big three starters can now rest up, and Jenks has proven that he can be the man in the late innings. If Hermanson can come back healthy then they're going to be that much tougher to beat once the 7th inning rolls around, and with those starters, the 7th inning will roll around damn quick.

One thing Gammons brought up a couple of days ago I did not realize is that the White Sox actually hit more home runs than Boston this season. I never really thought of Chicago having that much power.

A) Chicago has 1 more team homer than Boston (which is true, tho the White Sox still trail the Red Sox in team SLG by 30+ points)

Thank GOD I don't have to listen to Chris fucking Berman one more second this postseason. You could feel the disappointment dripping from his throat when Renteria grounded into the final out.

shhhh, it spoils the Official Story.

Fox is prolly panicking over how to exploit '1917' when the country doesn't know about it. "Let's do the Game 1 open with Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe..."

Well, I mean, Renteria is a historically superior player, for one thing.

But yeah, bad year. They should trade him and bring up Hanley already.

Cabrera:
2004 .264 .306 .383 16SB 237TB Age29
2005 .257 .309 .365 21SB 197TB Age30

Renteria:
2004 .287 .327 .401 17SB 235TB Age28
2005 .276 .335 .385 9SB 240TB Age29

I mean, they both sucked pretty badly both year, and Renteria makes an extra 2mil. However, Renteria is pretty clearly the better of the two players. Obviously Renteria's decline in SBs probably has more to do with organizational philosophy than anything else. Otherwise, he's superior across the board.

Again, I'd rather stick Hanley there for $250k than either of these two bad options, but the idea that they should have signed Cabrera is baffling to me, and the idea that they should have signed Eckstein is the ultimate in 20/20 hindsight.

Also - THIRTY ERRORS?!?!?!

I mean, if I go all in on a two of clubs and a seven of diamonds and flop a 7 7 2, that doesn't mean I didn't make a bad decision.

I was all wet on the length, but unusually correct on the means.

Scoring playoff prognostications = measuring 'clutch'

My 'predictions' are what I want to see happen, slightly reined by probability.