Prospectus PREDICTATRON 2006

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For the fearless who don't mind looking sorta stupid in the fall for missing win totals by 20 or more:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pt/rules.php

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 3 April 2006 14:53 (twenty years ago)

finally!

I'm picking A's over Cards in 5 in the WS, but I don't have a clue what I'm talking about.

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Monday, 3 April 2006 17:35 (twenty years ago)

I picked A's over Mets (again).

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 3 April 2006 17:53 (twenty years ago)

one month passes...

Woo hoo, I'm tied for 78th! Never been in the top 10% before, and things can only get better as the Tigers swoon and the A's rise (right?).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pt/score.php?user=BillWW

oh Barry, mortally locking KC in at 62 wins may cost you.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 June 2006 19:44 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pt/score.php?user=mlpowell

#162 with a score of 692

― milo z (mlp), Friday, 2 June 2006 20:32 (nineteen years ago)

KC'll get close to 62. They are bound to win a higher % in the second half (when more teams quit caring.)

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 June 2006 20:36 (nineteen years ago)

I stuck with last year's total of 56 wins. Are they really better this year? I can see them winning anything from 45 to 65.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 June 2006 20:49 (nineteen years ago)

The question isn't whether they are any better, but whether the league is any worse (and judging by the first two months, I would say that other than the AL Central, the league is maybe slightly worse.)

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 2 June 2006 21:30 (nineteen years ago)

There's always a lot of parity involved in making these sorts of predictions ... you normally don't feel good about pencilling in a team for 95+ wins because there's always some luck involved in winning that many games and you can never know which teams will be the lucky one. In the same way, I guess I found it tough to predict fewer than 60 wins for any team, particularly in the NL which seemed like a parity-filled league at the time (and still might be, who knows).

It looks like all three of us underestimated the strength of the AL Central and overestimated the strength of the AL West. If Detroit doesn't fall apart and the Twins wake up, then yeah, it'll be a stretch for KC to win 60 considering the unbalanced schedule.

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Saturday, 3 June 2006 01:10 (nineteen years ago)

my team -- middle of the pack at #486

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Saturday, 3 June 2006 01:13 (nineteen years ago)

three weeks pass...

I'm feeling better about my KC prediction, but choosing fucking Atlanta as my mortal lock to win their division is killing me right now.

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 29 June 2006 00:56 (nineteen years ago)

my score is up to 711, but I'm only at #300 now!

― milo z (mlp), Thursday, 29 June 2006 01:48 (nineteen years ago)

I fell precipitously too. Have the Pirates as Mortal Lock winning 68, not lookin that good.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 1 July 2006 16:55 (nineteen years ago)

They're predicting the Rangers will win the AL West.

― zaxxon25 (zaxxon25), Monday, 3 July 2006 14:33 (nineteen years ago)

two months pass...

Ranks and scores:

Me - 790 (308th)
Milo - 793 (263rd)
Morbs - 792 (276th)

It's coming down to the wire! More exciting than the NL playoff race!

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 28 September 2006 16:09 (nineteen years ago)

I've crept into the upper third for the first time in awhile...

Don't forget there's postseason pointage to come.

The key to the top regular-season scores seems not to take the Fashionable Favorite bait (ie, Cleveland takes division with over 90 wins) and to luck out with your Mortal Locks (I've got a shot to hit paydirt with 68 Pirate wins, but not 68 for Tampa Bay). Cuz I'm sure less than 1% of the entrants had Detroit winning 95+, so everyone loses there.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2006 16:16 (nineteen years ago)

These look like the reg-season final tallies:

me - 795
Milo - 795 (OOOH!)
Barry - 794 (OOOOOH!)

I'm surprised the only teams that cost me more than 12 pts were the Tigers, Cubs, Indians, and fuckin' Devil Rays (as my Mortal Lock, 7 wins short, just three more W's woulda got me over 800).

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 October 2006 15:12 (nineteen years ago)

My MORTAL LOCK prediction for KC turned out to be exactly right!

The key to the regular season is to stay away from extremely high and low win totals. For instance, if a team won 100 games last year and you think they'll be great again this year, don't go out on a limb and put them down for 95-100 wins again, put them down for 90-92 because it's the more likely outcome (regression to the mean, etc.). Or if you think a team will improve and crack 90 wins, put them down for 90 but don't get too optimistic and try to convince yourself they'll win 95.

The guy in first place right now used this strategy -- vitually no teams below 70 or above the low 90's.

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Monday, 2 October 2006 16:44 (nineteen years ago)

Yeah, my other mortal lock was Pittsburgh, and I was only one off.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 October 2006 16:57 (nineteen years ago)

As of this precise moment, I'm liking my WS pick of A's over Cards!

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Friday, 6 October 2006 21:44 (nineteen years ago)

Mets-A's ain't looking too bad.

― milo z (mlp), Saturday, 7 October 2006 03:05 (nineteen years ago)

After 1st round

Me - 806 (12 playoff points)
Milo - 807 (12 playoff points)
Morbs (809) (14 playoff points)

You guys picked A's over Mets, I picked A's over Cards, so if the Cards win the NLCS then I AM TEH CHAMPEEN?

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 12 October 2006 13:41 (nineteen years ago)

not if the A's win the next 4.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 12 October 2006 20:23 (nineteen years ago)

--oh wait -- yeah.

Not happ'nin, tho.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 12 October 2006 20:24 (nineteen years ago)

two weeks pass...

but it did.

Barry 818
Milo 815
Dr M 813

No surprise: the top 3 finishers all picked Cards to win the WS (I don't see any Tiger pennant prognosticators yet tho).

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 31 October 2006 15:59 (nineteen years ago)

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