Kickass baseball media 2009

hey, did ESPN abolish the "Insider" subscrip wall? These blogs have appeared in full for a couple weeks....

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=law_keith

Yeah for the blogs they have. I think the articles are still restricted.

Pretty sure the blogs are free in the off-season.

not sure if this belongs here but here's a link to every Baseball Digest since 1945, readable online.

http://books.google.com/books?id=8LcDAAAAMBAJ&output=html&source=gbs_all_issues_r&cad=2_2

Baseball Digest online archive

oh hell, thanks

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3130/3161088827_677f67c4da_o.png

Haha

The article itself is nothing that SG hasn't harped on before, but the intro is great,

"Spurred on by Buster Olney's mention of this same topic in his blog posting today (I shan't link; Olney is, shall we say, persnickety about who he links to, so I shall be the same)..."

http://pinstripedbible.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/01/another_note_on_posada.html

http://mcfarlane.com/toys/product.aspx?product=3848

I don't know where else to put this.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/01/2008_leaders_an.php

new efficiency stat for Ks... K/100pitches.

pretty interesting way of measuring efficiency with Ks, rather than pitchers who throw 8-10 pitch ABs trying to K a guy who can't hit the ball out of the infield (sup Zito).

LOLivan

Speaking of pitching statistics, has anyone developed a relief stat that is more complex than runners inherited/runners stranded -- one that takes situations (number of base runners, locations of base runners, number of outs) into account?

I think that's what WXRL is supposed to do.

This shit is excessively complicated:

WX

Expected wins added over an average pitcher. WX uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games. Win expectancy looks at the inning, score, and runners on base when the reliever entered the game, and determines the probability of the team winning the game from that point with an average pitcher. Then it looks at how the reliever actually did, and how that changes the probability of winning. The difference between how the reliever improved the chances of winning and how an average pitcher would is his WX.

WXL

Expected wins added over an average pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters faced. WXL factors in the MLVr of the actual batters faced by the relievers. Then, like WX, WXL uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games.

WXR

Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher. WXR uses win expectancy calculations to assess how relievers have changed the outcome of games, similar to WX. However, instead of comparing the pitcher's performance to an average pitcher, he is compared to a replacement level pitcher to determine WXR.

WXRL

Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.

http://www.weei.com/Can-The-Ballad-Of-The-Captain-Please-End-/3729755

Again, it’s not Varitek’s fault that some still believe that the Red Sox pitching staff would turn into 12 Steven Adler’s if he left. It’s not his fault that Tim McCarver commented last season that if “Varitek were in the Army, he’d be a Colonel”. I still have no idea what that means. It’s not his fault that there are people out there that think he has some miraculous powers because he had an extra letter on the front of his shirt.

My prediction? He hits .236 in 108 games and the Sox win 92 games. My prediction if he didn’t sign? The Sox would get roughly the same production out of the catcher spot and win, oh, 92 games. I swear to you that the pitchers would find their way to the mound from the dugout. I remember Josh Beckett once pitched some games in October vs. the Yankees in a different uniform, throwing pitches to someone else.

nifty Sheehan column the other day, the gist of which is

The average American League batter hit .268/.336/.420. Four AL teams couldn't match any of those three figures from a position at which there's no defensive requirement whatsoever. Eight AL teams got subpar OBPs from their DH slot, which seems like a good way to torpedo your offense. If you were to pick your DH entirely based on their ability to not make outs, you'd be ahead of the game in the American League.

i hated that article, sheehan oversimplifies all the time because he's just looking for an excuse to get outraged about something - easily the worst/most transparent 'analyst' on BP

(not that there isn't a kernel of truth in the argument he's making, i just hate his style)

Dean Ara (Vancouver)
(1391)

Joe - your argument is simplistic.

Without actually knowing the financial (or other) demands these players are making (and you have to believe that Boras is not giving in) how could you categorize the non-signings as "non-sensical"?

You don't have to rehash over and over that these players are good. We get it.

But let's assume that this issue isn't entirely about dumb GMs failing to realize that there are great players out there that could help their team.
Jan 30, 2009 13:10 PM
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owned just owned

own zone population sheehan

I just didn't know last year's DHs were THAT unproductive.

well he's equating productivity w/r/t DH's in terms of OBP...

...but I always stereotype DH's as more SLG types than OBP... bigger lumbering players who can't field thus they DH.

Or, like, Jose Vidro.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

these are excellent blorgs about baseball

LSUdavidterry (Dallas): Here's a quote from Steve Phillips from ESPN's $40MM challenge. Steve Phillips: … I was also surprised as to how much talent you can get for $40M.

Steven Goldman: That's hilarious. I am consistently amazed that Phillips can make a living as an analyst. Having him explain team building is a bit like having Henry Kissinger give a lecture on how to foster peace and amity in Southeast Asia.

Steve Phillips: … I was also surprised as to how much talent you can get for $40M.

Has he not ever played MLB2K whatever?

(Oh, wait, he's IN MLB2K9.)

(Oh, wait again, he was once the GENERAL MANAGER of a Major League Baseball team.)

49. Rob Neyer selects Francisco Liriano (P, Minnesota Twins, $471,500)
Steve Phillips: I was going to take him. Good pick.
50. Buster Olney selects Mike Fontenot (2B, Chicago Cubs, $445,500)
Steve Phillips: I was going to take him, too.

51. Steve Phillips selects Ambiorix Burgos

Steve Phillips: Headed into church. Be back in an hour. Gotta pray over my next selection.

the_real_stevephillips

Steve Phillips may be an idiot, but I think he probably drafted the best team. He also had the least amount of money left over.

lol canks

Although I guess he's relying on one of this three SSs to play 2B cuz he didn't seem to draft one. Still Braun/Quentin/Kemp plus Wright/Ramirez/Aviles?DeWitt?Theriot/Gonzalez seems pretty scary and Lester/Nolasco/Santana/Garza plus Papelbon is not slouchy.

yeah he put together a good team, tho i think i like starks' the best - grabbing wieters and rollins right at the end was p. cool

stark's

IRL Stark's def. has the most upside (Upton, Price, Wieters is sick) but I'm not sure how such things matter in these sorts of simulations. I don't understand how Neyer/Olney leave $1M out there, but I'm sure this is hard to do.

i think they outsmarted themselves a little just looking for the best bargains, not realizing that you don't get extra credit for leftover payroll

will this sim be run w/ real world stats (I stopped going to ESPN)?

No, it's a sim based on projections, not performance this coming year.

Not sure if the fact that I noticed this reflects well on me, but the projections had Neyer beating Phillips like a drum.

Goldman:

http://pinstripedbible.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/02/eleven_reactions_to_the_arodst.html

John (Watertown, SD): What were you trying to do in the draft? Other than draft a ton (21) AL players hoping that the translated numbers would make them better relative to their NL brethren?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: (12:23 PM ET ) dingdingdingdingdingding! Congrats, John: As far as I know, you're the first to notice. Cole Hamels is a lot better than Zack Greinke, right? Actually, not so much. When you account for the DH *and* the AL's clear superiority, Greinke's actually pretty close to Hamels. And I was hoping the sim would take that into account. That's not my only secret, but it's probably the biggest. The other is that I did my best to consider defense. Well played, sir.

Matt (St. Louis): You went up the middle, took the best catcher, second basemen, and center fielder. Then you filled out from there with plus defenders and pitchers who throw strikes. No?

SportsNation Rob Neyer: (12:24 PM ET ) Yeah, that was the other thing. I thought strikeouts would play well, because they're so projectable (as opposed to hits and ERA).

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2009/02/spring-training.html

#
# Russell Martin - took up yoga, "credits his new girlfriend, a model and fellow native of Quebec, with teaching him an organized, grounded way to run his life whipping him."

She must have seen him do that perverse ritual-style water cooler beatdown during the playoffs.

You need to work on getting lose and staying focused when you're being forced to catch 150 games a year.

Being a catcher and not doing yoga seems frankly crazy to me.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html

Lewis on Basketball; still (obviously) worthwhile

i see lol images of Yogi Berra (or Sal Fasano) doing yoga

http://pinstripedbible.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/02/the_arod_files.html

As for those on the "steroids corrupt all stats" debate, I remain somewhere between agnostic and outright skeptical. I'd be more willing to believe in a placebo effect than I do in a large-scale impact on home run production. If you feel differently, I'm open to your argument, but we need an argument more solid than, "Look at the home runs, man!" I did a radio spot recently, and the host said -- I loosely paraphrase -- "You puny stathead, I used to play the game, and I look at how Bongs and Ray-Rod can stay back on the ball and still hit it out -- that's unnatural power that can only come from the juice!" And as I struggled to say something more than, "Wait, what?"....

All of this searching for a "natural" production baseline is ridiculous given that there is no such thing. The line drawn between fair and unfair substances is completely arbitrary. No player, in any sport, is competing with only the assets that birth gave him. There's always something else going into the pot, be it aspirin, absinthe, or amphetamines. During his 56-game hitting streak, Joe DiMaggio chain-smoked cigarettes in the dugout to calm his nerves. That gave him an unfair advantage on Wee Willie Keeler. Heck, genes are unfair and should be banned. Consider Barry Bonds and Jose Cruz, Jr. Bobby Bonds was a very good player. Barry Bonds is better. Jose Cruz was a very good player. Jose Cruz, Jr. is not half the player his old man was. Seems like Barry's mom brought more to the chromosome hoedown than did Jose Jr.'s mom. Clearly, Barry Bonds is the beneficiary of genetic hypergamy, giving him a competitive advantage unavailable to other players. As such, his records should be stricken from the book. Breeding, intentional or not, makes a mockery of the level playing field....

i'd expect the next Blyleven in that sense to be Scott Rolen assuming he has a couple more productive years to push him over 70 WAR. excluding deadball, no one with 70+ career WAR on bbref has missed the hall yet (except Pete Rose), and yet Rolen looks to get there without the air of a legendary player media-wise.

or i guess Mussina if he's not seen as a lock by people (is he?)

Reuschel's name has been coming up a lot lately in HOF articles about Morris and Blyleven. His HOF case would have been helped immeasurably if he'd won a Cy Young award in the 70's, which he probably deserved to do. Or if he hadn't been pitching in Wrigley Field during his prime.

Mussina is definitely the new Blyeleven, if there is one.

Tim Raines is the next Blyleven.

the problem with Raines is it could hypothetically reach the point where he's the 11th best player on the ballot even sabermetrically and then what do you do

the thing with Blyleven was that he was a slam dunk by traditional stats too, i feel like anyone who's ever played fantasy baseball even with the oldschool 5x5 categories would look at his bbref page and correctly identify him as a Great Pitcher. (what kind of boggles my mind is that ERA is supposedly a traditional stat by now, one which sabermetrics has exposed the flaws with and has moved on from, and yet there are still sportswriters struggling to make the jump from pitcher wins to ERA [see: contention over last couple years' CY voting]. they're a whole generation behind!)

Vote the other ten guys in first, I guess.

But I don't see how that's not a problem with Mussina too with the add'l problem that if Raines is the 11th best player on the ballot sabermetrically then Mussina is 12th.

Actually I guess it depends on which sabermetricians you talk to... still Mussina's other problem is there a lot of great pitchers coming up and I see him kinda getting lost in the shuffle of Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Martinez, etc.

xp well its apples and oranges but Mussina was a better player than Raines value-wise, i'm pretty sure

anyway, i agree that Raines is gonna get some pushing and shoving from sabr dudes next year now that Blyleven is in but i don't know what's gonna happen when the entire superstar cast of the steroid era starts hitting the ballot the year after

Maybe I'm off here--once Mussina retired after the 20-win season, I figured he was a pretty safe bet. Before that was somewhat dicey. (I realize the 20-win season is symbolic, and shouldn't really affect his case on the merits, but it's still a powerful symbol for voters, and retiring immediately after will bolster his case too.)

Yeah I think Mussina's going to get in pretty quickly ultimately. 10 top 10 Cy Youngs, slew of GGs, 270-153 W-L. That's pretty unassailable even for tradionalists.

Raines ultimate value seems to hinge on whether the defensive stats you are looking at consider him an above average or average LF in his prime. If you believe the former is correct he was probably one of the five or so best position players in the 80s, if you believe the latter then he was probably only in the top ten-fifteen. Either way you are right it's apples and oranges.

i think some of the steroid era leftovers are going to fall off the ballot pretty quickly and allow guys like raines to stick around. wouldn't be surprised to see mcgwire and palmeiro lose support even from guys who would like to vote for them, since they may feel they'd rather throw a vote towards raines and similar players and recognize that the upcoming packed ballots won't do them any favors.

I'd actually never even thought about that before--I wonder how much strategic voting goes on with Cooperstown? It might become a common thing during the steroid ballots, for the reason you cite.

Like with Blyleven, people are going to argue that Mussina was never viewed as a dominant pitcher (never won a Cy Young, only finished higher than 4th once), wasn't a winner (his star took a tumble when he joined the Yankees and was never considered the ace of the team or a "true Yankee"), was an all-Star only four times, etc.

Raines ultimate value seems to hinge on whether the defensive stats you are looking at consider him an above average or average LF in his prime.

I dunno, I think you're complicating the issue too much ... Raines' biggest problem has been and always will be unfavourable (and unfair) comparisons to Rickey. Also, the game has changed so much since the early 80's and players like Raines aren't valued anymore. In the 80's, EVERYONE killed to have a power/OBP/speed player like Raines, but now, with the very rare exception of people like Carl Crawford, those kinds of players no longer exist and the value of having someone like that has fallen off everybody's radar.

Billy Beane would still kill to have a player like Raines!

And of course Ozzie Guillen loves guys who steal bases whether they get on base or not!

lol crawford as an OBP guy

Well, yeah LOL that Crawford was the closest modern day comp I could think of (maybe Curtis Granderson during the two years he played like a star would be a better comp). Anyway, it just goes to show how great Raines was when we can't think of a single player in the 2010's with his combination of skills.

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1003031250/the-eephus-league-baseball-scorebook-revival-proje

I find the idea agreeable even as I am happy w/ generic boxes to fill out

Everyone bait:

Hi, Bill, not sure if you would want to answer this or not, but I'll ask regardless. I grew up with the traditional statistics and have always enjoyed them. I enjoy the new stuff also, and I'm not trying to champion one over the other. I'm just curious as what of the traditional stats you still find relevant, or find yourself checking even if you don't necessarily use them yourself. Thanks.
Asked by: 77royals

Answered: April 26, 2011

[James's response} Oh, I'm like you; I grew up with the old stuff and I still use the old stats. Wins, Losses, ERA, RBI...these are still very much a part of how I think about the game.

Yankees prospect reviews:

"6) Andrew "The Scranton Horror" Brackman, RHP, Grade B-: 7.26 ERA with 58/69 K/BB in 76 innings for Scranton, 71 hits allowed. He is hounded by abominable, eldritch control problems, like insane flute music pulsating with a mind-bending disharmony of universal, ultimate chaos. Those who ruminate overmuch on the chthonic mysteries of Andrew Brackman's career put their sanity at risk, as their mental boundaries melt under the hideous assault of such an unspeakable waste of talent and money. Ia! Shub-Niggurath! Ia! Ia! The Black Goat of the Woods with a Thousand Walks!"

:D

http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/the-myriad-emotions-of-jeffrey-leonard

12. Jeffrey Leonard finally understands, for the first time, what it’s like when doves cry

laughed a little too hard at this

this one's great too, short and sweet
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/nl-central-race-in-dog-gif-form/

There's a line in Posnanski's column today (about the hypothetical perfect pitcher) that captures why I've been enjoying him more the past year than anyone since James:

I’m sure that many of the stories are apocryphal, but one of my favorites was that supposedly Maddux was sitting in the dugout watching the game when suddenly he turned to a teammate and said “watch out.” And on the next pitch, the batter hit a line drive into the dugout exactly where that teammate is standing. Like with all Maddux stories, I don’t want to know that it’s not true.

It's the last line I like so much--even though he's thoroughly grounded in (and constantly advocating for) all the newest statistics, he still gets a charge out of all the old silly stuff.

Posnanski brings it yet again:

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/09/meaning-of-600-saves.html

This got me thinking ... closers have short lifetimes, guys tend to be great for maybe a few years and then flame out. In that sense it's pretty incredible that Hoffmann and Rivera managed to last in that role for fifteen years. How many position players can sustain that kind of peak? Closers with ten year peaks are a lot rarer than position players with ten year peaks, so is being a great closer "harder" than people realize?

Also, has the one inning closer model led to more injuries? If more relievers had to throw 1+ IP in all their appearances, then they'd have to pace themselves more instead of putting 100% into every fastball. Pos thinks that Rivera could have been great if he'd always been used like he was in 1996, but could that kind of usage (60-70 G, 100-120 IP) really have been sustained for fifteen years?

A study of the framing of pitches by catchers:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/1/2461670/joe-maddon-matt-moore-tampa-bay-rays

"Do you realize what 22-year-olds are like? They're usually morons. No idea about anything. And there are probably some 22-year-olds who are all offended by that, but look at what's in your left hand right now. Drugs. You're holding drugs and possibly a set of keys that don't belong to you. That's because you're 22 years old. Joe Maddon had to look Matt Moore in the eyes and figure he was cool. He could pitch a playoff game for his second start in the majors. No problem."

xp that catcher article is amazing btw.

Placebo-ball: the science of baseball's magical necklaces

Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett endorses Phiten necklaces. The necklaces did not keep the Sox from choking during the pennant race, however.

I have a Spacemen 3 single called "Transcranial Stimulation" IIRC.

i think there's a thread on these... lemme check.

nope, but a few mentions, strangely, in the Kickass baseball media 2008 thread.

i actually searched for 'science' and 'physics'

maybe a gygax! should remove the 2009 from this thread?

NM Bill Simmons,

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7739030/a-nervous-exchange-red-sox-e-mails

"Schur: I'm excited for when Bogaerts gets to the majors, has a great first week, and Baskin-Robbins releases "Xander Bogaerts Frozen Yogaerts." (EllsBerry Blast. Chocolate Chip Youkie Dough. Bailey's and Cream. Come on, guys, do I have to do everything for you?)"

Posnanski says this is his last SI column (on Bubba Watson), but doesn't explain why:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2012/04/08/bubbas-and-goodbyes/?sct=hp_t13_a1&eref=sihp

He got a new gig

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7793059/john-burgeson-ibm-computer-start-baseball-video-games

could cross-post with people who've figured out how to live

He got a new gig

― polyphonic, Monday, April 9, 2012 5:42 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

doing what?

A "USA Today/MLB Advanced Media joint venture", apparently.

its still under wraps whatever it is

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/03/old-news.html

it sucks that he hasn't written much lately, it's weird how much i enjoy his blog

Should I just take the year off this thread title?

yeah do it

Why I like so Posnanski so much:

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.ca/2012/09/trout-miggy-and-mvp.html#more

He's able to make the argument for Trout--which I've never disputed--without treating it as a zero-sum game where you must therefore diminish the significance of a Triple Crown.

I’d love to see Cabrera win the Triple Crown. I was one of those kids who would score the daily leaders in the morning paper and try to figure out what Jim Rice or Fred Lynn or George Foster had to do to get to the Triple Crown. In some ways, I still am. But let’s not turn this MVP race into yet another argument about traditional stats and modern ones, between fossils making outdated arguments and pointy-headed, basement dwelling bloggers with slide rulers. It’s none of that. Miggy Cabrera might win the Triple Crown! Mike Trout is having a season for the ages! One of them won’t win the MVP. which is a shame. But one of them will.

Perfect.

ESPN's feature about the 20th anniversary of the Sid Bream slide of '92 (interviews with many of the players involved):

http://espn.go.com/mlb/feature/moment/_/page/SidBream%27sElectricSlide/sid-bream-electric-slide-1992-nlcs-game-7

From the Van Slyke interview:

One more out and the Pirates would go to the World Series. So Van Slyke wanted to make sure. He told Barry Bonds, the Pirates' left fielder, to move in.

"I got his attention," Van Slyke said. "But he flipped me the bird. He put his hand up and said, 'I'll play where I want to play.'"

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19460

Posnanski:

Today's other birthday -- the most important one for the author -- is my daughter Katie. She turns 8 today. When I dropped her off at school, she hopped out of the car and literally skipped to the door. Then she held the door open for a stream of children who had been behind her. She just stood there for 10 or 15 seconds, holding the door, watching the kids go by, happier than anyone in the entire world because she was helping. For her birthday, I wish I could give her the gift of staying that happy for the rest of her life. But I can't.

If you were a Jays fan when they first started winning in the mid-'80s, this bit from James is nice:

Bobby Cox in Toronto was the last great platoon manager. In 1984 he was platooning Ernie Whitt and Buck Martinez at catcher, Cliff Johnson and Willie Aikens at DH, Garth Iorg and Rance Mulliniks at third base, and he was really platooning Jesse Barfield and Dave Collins in the outfield (Collins in left, Barfield in right...George Bell would move to RF to allow Collins, who couldn't throw, to play left, and Barfield, who had a cannon, to play right.)

Those were ALL, with the arguable exception of Barfield, just free-resource players at the time the Blue Jays acquired them--but the Jays got 19 homers and 77 RBI out of their catchers, a .291 average out of their third basemen, 25 homers and 85 RBI out of the DHs, near-MVP performance out of their left fielders (42 doubles, 17 triples, 15 homers, 198 hits, 59 stolen bases and a .297 average), and a .291 average with 24 homers out of their right fielders. They had a nine-man offense, and they had pinch hitters out the wazoo.

(The context was how much managers give up today by carrying 12 or 13 pitchers to accommodate a specialized bullpen.)