The BP newsletters the last two days have included the following sets of stats:
Top 5 Luckiest AL Starters, by LUCK
Player, Team, W, L, E(W), E(L), LUCK
Freddy Garcia, CHA, 10, 5, 5.9, 6.9, 5.91
Jose Contreras, CHA, 9, 0, 7.0, 3.8, 5.80
Josh Beckett, BOS, 10, 4, 6.5, 6.0, 5.54
Chien-Ming Wang, NYA, 8, 4, 6.4, 7.5, 5.09
Kenny Rogers, DET, 10, 3, 7.2, 5.2, 4.92
Top 5 Luckiest NL Starters, by LUCK
Player, Team, W, L, E(W), E(L), LUCK
Tom Glavine, NYN, 11, 2, 8.1 , 5.0, 5.88
Ryan Madson, PHI, 8, 5, 4.6, 5.9, 5.31
Wandy Rodriguez, HOU, 9, 5, 6.3, 7.2, 4.95
Gavin Floyd, PHI, 4, 3, 2.5, 6.2, 4.74
Miguel Batista, ARI, 8, 5 , 5.7, 6.3, 3.64
Does anybody have the foggiest how these guys derived their LUCK stat?
― boldbury (boldbury), Friday, 7 July 2006 23:55 (nineteen years ago)
BP's definition:
Luck, as measured by the number of extra wins, and short losses the pitcher actually got, versus his expected record. LUCK = (W-E(W))+(E(L)-L)
Expected win/loss:
E(L)
Expected loss record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).
E(W)
Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 8 July 2006 00:11 (nineteen years ago)