How Many Home Runs Will Jose Bautista Hit in 2011?

20-29

prob the safest guess

voted 0-9 because I plan on injuring him at the beginning of the season

What will your technique be?

are we supposed to take into account his upcoming 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs

If you believe such a thing will happen, sure.

i was being sarcastic

gonna go with 20-29 but my opinion could change depending on what he does for the rest of the season

I also think that the safest choice is 20-29, but I'm slowly becoming convinced that he really did make major changes to his swing and that this year wasn't a total fluke, so I voted 30-39 (FWIW, closer to 30 than to 39).

yeah i think the best projection is gonna be ~30-33 for a full season but i'm erring on the low side since he can lose playing time but he can't gain it

he's doing this by literally pulling everything his bat touches and that's got to be exploitable somehow. his spray chart is pretty hilarious, none of the 41 HR so far are opposite field or even to center

I'll be following this up with a most exiting "How many home runs will Vernon Wells hit next year?" poll: 14-16, 17-19, 20-22, more than 22 but less than 25, 25 exactly.

Bautista went deep off Verlander tonight. Later on, he missed a changeup by what appeared to be a full foot.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

i want to do this as a pool next year. i',m totally calling 28 right now

starting to feel like he'll crack 30 now

I've heard a couple of times that he now has the second-highest one-year jump ever. Behind Brady Anderson? One of those odd things I don't know how to check online--it's got to be Anderson, right?

my guess was davey johnson, looks like i was otm: 5 hr to 43 hr (brady was 16 to 50.)

btw from 1-61* the only home run totals that haven't been achieved in a single season are 53 and 55.

Forget all about Johnson. The three-guys-over-40 team: sci-fi in '73.

"Forgot"...not disputing you!

I was at tonight's game with a Japanese friend and his wife who wanted to see Ichiro. Bautista had five chances for his 50th, couldn't do it. (Ichiro was 4-4.) It would have such a fluke if he'd done it, because I was there in '86 when Barfield became the first Jay to hit 40. If only: I would have been all set for a return visit in 2034 to see Travis Snider, Jr. become the first Jay to hit 60.

I meant to say...I should probably post this on the Seattle thread, but I'm afraid I'll get chased out. The Mariners' offense is worse than I even imagined. Four guys in their starting lineup were hitting under .200, including clean-up (.199). One starter was in double-digits for home runs (10). The starters had combined for 44 HR going into the game, four less than Bautista. It was like that year where Ruth outhomered every other team in the league.

saw this linked on bbtf

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/jose-bautista/hitchart/154727

dude had a grand total of 6 hits to right, right center at Rodgers center.. impressive. kinda.

going for 60 now apparently

ya - two today! wow.

The Common Man (Parts unknown)

Do you buy the notion that rebuilding Jose Bautista's swing turned him into a homer machine? Or is this season a Brady Anderson like fluke?

Klaw (1:09 PM)

The latter.

I guess Klaw votes for 10-19.

i think later in the chat he pegs bautista for 28 homers next year

Nice piece by Joe Posnanski about the 32 Flukiest Home Run Seasons. Bautista is at #5.

Oh yeah, link

I might have included Jim Hickman's 31 in 1970.

the closest guy to bautista in terms of a jump in numbers (if not in other areas and minus the stint in japan) kinda seems to be cecil fielder.

Maybe he's taking performance-enhancing cupcakes.

there's a couple flukey HR seasons every year, people just don't notice as much if they don't crack 40 or 50

that was an interesting list. #32 was pretty lol

Bautista is at #25 on the all-time single-season home run list.

8. Roger Maris, 1961 (61 homers)

If there were no roids and Bautista was closing in on the HR record, he would probably be hated on Maris style as described by Pos.

this guy hit number 52 today (51 went over the fence).

incredible

sorry, it's the more ridiculas number of 54.

- J. Bautista homered to deep right

he did it!

does he have another arb-year next year or is he a free agent this offseason?

ok he seems to be a super-two so one more year w/ jays

daaamn

holy shit. 54 left field shots and one to right. amazing.

Experts!

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2010/10/experts-predict-jose-bautistas-2011-home-run-total.html

Will 27 minutes ago

I say he doesn't hit more than 19.

benjidoc 18 minutes ago in reply to Will

I say you're a retard.

Projecting to hit 54 again this year.

he has 19 BB already and i think none of them are intentional. also: 19 runs scored, all through 18 games.

alot of them had been of the unintentional intentional variety.

is slugging .800 atm

we might've needed to add a 50+ option

Projecting to 61 atm.

best player in the game right now (ahead of that guy on the cardinals, or one of those two guys: holliday and berkman...)

ahead of that guy on the cardinals

yeah, i'll rep for Rasmus.

the jays announcer after bautista's second hr: "bautista is a major leaguer playing out of his league"

Unbelievable.

I think he has a pretty good chance at two more AB.

BAUTISTA

Got a little carried away...short of big rally, he gets one more AB.

UH

unreal

he's at 16 now - which was his career high before 2010.

who is most often batting behind him? Seems like JB would start getting the Bonds treatment at this clip.

JeffPassan Jeff Passan
Bautista is now slugging .868 -- higher than Barry Bonds' record .863 in 2001 and Babe Ruth's .847 in 1920.

holy shit.

Lind was batting behind him up until recently.

they just said on the radio he's on pace for 77!

everyone calm down and wait for July

(July was his best month last year)

well, he's just made that more difficult to repeat!

Neat article: http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201106/number-crusher-how-blue-jays-slugger-jose-bautista-experimented-his-way-greatness

the man keeps on giving:

"This guy isn't like Mike Schmidt," Ricciardi said. "He's not going to come out and hit 40 home runs."

http://l.yimg.com/a/p/sp/editorial_image/e0/e0fb9df5d3bf7d3cc8951786e0fe4725/photo_torontos_jose_bautista_shrinks_to_preadolescent_size.jpg

all-star votes cast for Bats so far: 5,263,840
next closest vote total (Cano) is trailing by over 500,000!

Anyone care for a re-poll?

who gets this treatment for next year, ellsbury?

Granderson

^ this

Gotta do a Brett Lawrie HR poll for next year.

The person who voted 30-39 still has a shot, albeit a small one.

that was me actually (or i might have voted 40+), tho i didn't state that at the time.

Weird, but I don't think he ever officially retired. Baseball Reference has an entry for "last game played," but if you google "Jose Bautista retires," the story stops a year ago with various pieces observing the same thing--that he never officially announced.

wasn't he supposed to be on the mets last year?

I think so...He's definitely done; I'm just intrigued that he never officially announced, like he's holding out a glimmer of hope someone will sign him. The rare super-rich guy I feel a little sorry for in that he never really cashed in like he could have--partly his own fault, but mostly, I think, bad timing beyond his control.

(Maybe he's more at fault than I think: the words "no home-town discount" come to mind.)

long island ducks are coming back on the 28th of may i think