the 2010 AL cy young predictatron poll

Weeeeeeeeeens

I always come on like the Ghost of Curt Gowdy here, but I really think Hernandez will win. Sabathia's last couple of starts have created enough of an opening, and going by that straw poll of GMs in SI a few days ago, there seems to be a growing feeling that this needs to happen. What'd be really fascinating would be if Hernandez went out and lost his final start 1-0. It's all psychological, but having finally accepted that a 12-12 pitcher could be the best in the league, could the writers make the leap to a 12-13 pitcher?

the fat guy

hernandez is not winning

price nice win tonight maybe tips it to him???

this really is a waterloo of sorts

it's hilarious to watch tim kurkijan on baseball tonight talking about this -- so much hand-wringing and guffawing

baseball tonight has actually got to showing WAR

i think felix is gonna win tbh

the one thing that felix has going in his favor is that he's first BY FAR in ERA, i think it would be a much different and prob a much more interesting situation if he was like slightly third or fourth in ERA

here are my predictions

1 felix
2 cc
3 price

what was the handwringing about grienkie last year? I remember there was something. Was it just that he's crazy?

if he was 3rd or 4th in era we wouldn't be talking about him i don't think.

xpost

or do you mean CC?

no, felix

i mean if his ERA was 2.45, would he even have a shot?

eh - maybe not. but he'd still be 1st in Ks and 2nd in whip.

not sure where he stands with all your stathead mumbo jumbo tho.

i think it could go to any of those 3 (minus lee) depending on which writers got the AL CY ballot this year

voting felix though

Didn't realize Heernandez was scheduled to pitch last night. So he's 13-12 now, with a slight lead in E.R.A. It sounds crazy that one game in a 162-game schedule could determine an award, but it may come down to that. I think he's scheduled to finish the season: 1) He wins impressively. 14-12 plus the E.R.A. title (and every other metric) and I think he'll win. 2) Unlikely, but he gets knocked out after four or five innings; 13-13 and second-place in E.R.A. (depending upon Buchholz, obviously) will be a tough sell. 3) He loses impressively. Not sure what would happen then.

It would be bonkers if Hernandez lost to CC due to finishing second in ERA -- by hundredths of a run -- behind someone with 70 fewer innings pitched.

ya - no matter what happens in his next start, he's still going to have an ERA that's way better than CC's.

I agree with both of you, but irrational though it may be, those kinds of distinctions (winning the ERA title, as opposed to finishing second) do affect voters.

I should pay attention--when I posted above, I didn't realize Sabathia had a great game last night too.

I voted for CC because Im lazy and so are baseball sports writers.

^ this could very well be the correct answer - but i went with King Felix.

bucholz

i really don't watch the American League but thinking this needs to go to Felix Hernandez.

i'm leaning Felix but i don't understand if there is a double standard at play here: it's OK to factor in consistency and getting your team to the postseason for hitters or pitchers under consideration for the MVP but that has no bearing on a Cy Young award?

i don't think that's fair for the MVP either, you shouldn't punish MVP-level players because the rest of their team sucks

in fact, someone like miguel cabrera possibly has more 'value' to his team than josh hamilton or robinson cano because he provides a larger percentage of his team's offense

it really all boils back down to the eternal inability of sportswriters to credit team accomplishments to the team rather than to individual players

i don't see any double standard. most valuable player can be a pitcher or a hitter and their value is relative to other outside aspects that also affect the team. cy young just goes to the best pitcher.

The writers seem to have collectively made up their minds--for the time being, anyway--about two things, though, neither of which I completely understand. 1) Pitchers are not MVPs anymore. There hasn't been a pitcher win MVP since Eckersley in '92. 2) Relievers don't win Cy Youngs. Also since Eckersley in '92, only Gagne has won a Cy Young. Pitchers did win MVPs, and relievers did win Cy Youngs, before that; not a lot of them, but every so often.

interesting though that ERA keeps getting called out for Felix and you hear nothing about his defensive support. which might be a mirage as it was a linchpin of the #6org strategy yet seems to have only produced 1.2 uzr/150

Verducci posted his ballot today:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/10/04/awards.picks/index.html?eref=sihp

Very interesting: "Hernandez will win this award fairly comfortably, a measurement of not only how wins are better understood but also how fast and wide groupthink travels these days."

I'll be happy if so, but there are gonna be some enraged dinosaur essays/jock punditry

I'm thinking that Verducci must have informally polled a decent sample of other voters before going on the record with such a statement. He doesn't hedge at all.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Jeff (Walnut Creek, CA)
No way Felix deserves Cy Young. Wins DO MATTER! Steve Carlton was on a terrible team and won 27 of their 59 total team wins. David Price has the overall numbers to win it, hands down.

Rob Neyer
Do you feel better now, Jeff?

Poll results seem pretty accurate to me -- I think that's almost exactly the way the real votes will be divided up.