Who should win NL Rookie of the Year?

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This is stolen from a poll MLB.com ran a few days ago. Was surprised by the results of that one.

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Buster Posey 11
Jason Heyward 5
Jaime Garcia 2
Gaby Sanchez 0
Starlin Castro 0


Bee OK, Thursday, 30 September 2010 03:10 (fifteen years ago)

i'm thinking Jason Heyward. Buster Posey could have possibly won if he played the whole year.

Bee OK, Thursday, 30 September 2010 03:12 (fifteen years ago)

such a good crop

still have to vote for posey tho -- i think it's okay that he was called up late, can't blame him for organizational incompetence -- he's been most valuable & most consistent imo

J0rdan S., Thursday, 30 September 2010 03:15 (fifteen years ago)

i would rank

1. posey
2. heyward
3. sanchez
4. garcia
5. castro

J0rdan S., Thursday, 30 September 2010 03:15 (fifteen years ago)

went with buster. got a little heyward backlash in me. 20 hr outfielders *yawn*

ಠ_ಠ (bnw), Thursday, 30 September 2010 03:34 (fifteen years ago)

Posey.

Fig On A Plate Cart (Alex in SF), Thursday, 30 September 2010 12:06 (fifteen years ago)

if garcia gets it in real life i'd be fine with that. but posey > heyward due to positional factors.

sanskrit, Thursday, 30 September 2010 13:17 (fifteen years ago)

haven't looked hard at numbers yet

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 30 September 2010 14:30 (fifteen years ago)

i went with Garcia. i'd actually had no idea how low his era was until i checked it just now!

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:04 (fifteen years ago)

was gonna go with Buster before that.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:04 (fifteen years ago)

Tempted to pick Garcia but ultimately I think Posey is going to be the better player long-term, and is a much rarer commodity.

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:15 (fifteen years ago)

BP by WARP1:

Heyward 4.5
Posey 4.0
Garcia 3.8

I don't understand "long-term" being a factor; Keith Law talks like this too. It's not a psychic's award.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:16 (fifteen years ago)

ya - that doesn't make alot of sense to me either. it's rookie of the year - not rookie of the future.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:22 (fifteen years ago)

it is weird tho how many ROYs fall on their faces after winning the award.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:23 (fifteen years ago)

above average hitting RF with a good arm/defense

vs.

far above average hitting C harnessing one of the best staffs in baseball who only played a fraction of the season because his team is managed by chimpanzees.

Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:25 (fifteen years ago)

Posey

A Reclaimer Hewn With (Michael White), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:27 (fifteen years ago)

I don't understand "long-term" being a factor; Keith Law talks like this too. It's not a psychic's award.

That doesn't mean psychics shouldn't be allowed to vote, though! This is America!

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:27 (fifteen years ago)

are you now - or have you ever been affiliated with psychics?

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:29 (fifteen years ago)

it is weird tho how many ROYs fall on their faces after winning the award.

Chris Coughlan RIP

mayor jingleberries, Thursday, 30 September 2010 17:55 (fifteen years ago)

Posey.

In "Bob" There Is No East or West (WmC), Thursday, 30 September 2010 18:32 (fifteen years ago)

heyward since i'm a sucker for elite OBP guys

stanton is my favorite though, dude hits the ball harder than anyone i've ever seen before, and he's still only 20 (!)

ciderpress, Friday, 1 October 2010 12:51 (fifteen years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Sunday, 3 October 2010 23:01 (fifteen years ago)

only a few hours left to vote

Bee OK, Monday, 4 October 2010 16:34 (fifteen years ago)

heyward's had a very j.d. drew-ish season where a huge chunk of his value is wrapped up in the 'invisible' areas of walk rate and defensive range, so i won't be surprised to see him passed on for posey's .300 BA

its a toss-up stats-wise anyway imo as long as one of those two win

ciderpress, Monday, 4 October 2010 16:48 (fifteen years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Monday, 4 October 2010 23:01 (fifteen years ago)

I'd put Drew Stubbs over Castro and maybe over Garcia, but I'm a homer. Stubbs got off to a horrible start and was hitting like .200 in early June, but had a really nice second half.

I'd voted Posey.

earlnash, Monday, 4 October 2010 23:06 (fifteen years ago)

Giants homers are the only people who should be making a case for Posey. Heyward has 36 more points of OBP and 180 more PAs in 34 more games. He's 4th in the league in OBP and walks and led his own team in both categories during his age 20/21 season. He leads Posey in VORP and WAR (both B-R and FG models) and wOBA and wRC+ and WPA. Posey might have had a flashier season, but Heyward provided more bulk value.

ciderpress otm iow

Princess TamTam, Sunday, 17 October 2010 00:37 (fifteen years ago)

my problem w/ the bulk value argument is that you're penalizing posey for giants management being too stubborn to call him up to start the season, despite the fact that he obviously should've been starting at either C or 1B

truly blunted rhyme fiend (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 17 October 2010 00:52 (fifteen years ago)

Sure, and that's a great reason to call the Giants idiots, but the net result is he still didn't play those games! That's 50+ games where he provided nil value, because he wasn't even playing. It's not so much penalizing him, it's just electing not to reward him for only playing 100 games. Same reason you look at IP when picking the Cy Young.

I'm probably underselling him a little because he had a wonderful season and it's truly a very close race, but when I look at the 34 game gap I just can't imagine picking him over Heyward.

Princess TamTam, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:30 (fifteen years ago)

^^^

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:31 (fifteen years ago)

i can

Bee OK, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:32 (fifteen years ago)

he was basically the Giants MVP. i was sold on Howard until September happened

Bee OK, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:33 (fifteen years ago)

like they say: it not how you start it's how you finish. no one finished stronger in the NL, no one.

Bee OK, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:34 (fifteen years ago)

well that's a dumb argument

truly blunted rhyme fiend (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:37 (fifteen years ago)

i'm watching the game, don't have the time to get into it

Bee OK, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:39 (fifteen years ago)

Posey gets Rookie of the Finish!

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:39 (fifteen years ago)

I can understand voting for Posey, because RoY isn't like MVP or CY where it should be rewarded to whoever plays best over the course of the season. Most rookies aren't in the opening day lineup, and even out of the ones who are, most of them don't make a serious impact and become one of the best players on their team.

That said, you can't give it to Posey just based on the "what if" argument, because that's like penalizing Heyward and anyone else who did play more games.

Posey gets Rookie of the Finish!

This is some strawman bullshit though, it's not like Posey was a September call-up.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:47 (fifteen years ago)

yeah, yeah, yeah. i will get geeky about it when i have time. he had a 21 or more game hitting streak, a bunch of timely hits, hit over .300 for the year and arguably catches the best staff in baseball.

Bee OK, Sunday, 17 October 2010 02:48 (fifteen years ago)

He is a fine player and deserving of 2nd place honors.

macaroni rascal (polyphonic), Sunday, 17 October 2010 04:09 (fifteen years ago)

it makes sense to me.
obv at some point how many games you were around for factors in. it's just a matter of what number.

i was one of the two that voted for Garcia - but if it came down to Posey vs Heyward i'd have to figure out if the difference in plate appearances was greater than the difference in hitting.
obv its quite subjective and that formula will be different for everyone. for me it's close. very very close.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 17 October 2010 05:06 (fifteen years ago)

Yeah, I didn't even mention Garcia because I'm not entirely sure how to compare position players and pitchers in such a close race, or if I even should. I don't blame anyone who votes for him though.

Princess TamTam, Sunday, 17 October 2010 13:15 (fifteen years ago)

's not like Posey was a September call-up.

Didn't say that! I believe Posey would've created more runs if he'd played the whole year. He didn't, it doesn't matter why, and even the positional difference doesn't close the entire gap.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 17 October 2010 13:50 (fifteen years ago)

But I'm saying that the "gap" (by which I assume you mean WAR) shouldn't matter for RoY like it does for MVP or CY. Yeah, I think it's more about "potential" and about who played better after they were called up, whenever that may have been. I'm not talking about giving the RoY every year to guys who get called up in August and hit like crazy for six weeks (like Franceour in his rookie season). Posey played two-thirds of a season and that's a lot of PT, more than enough of a sample size to say that his season was for real.

Like I said upthread, I think we have to acknowledge how difficult it is for rookies to break into Opening Day lineups for a number of reasons (some of them related to $$$ i.e. super two status and having *nothing* to do with someone's ability) and judge RoY accordingly. Otherwise, we're basically saying that a guy who doesn't break camp with the team has almost no chance of winning RoY (unless it's a really weak field).

I always thought that rookie SP's get overlooked in these votes, because a) it's crazy difficult for rookies to break camp as starters, and b) good rookie SP's are probably even rarer and more valuable than either rookie catchers or outfielders.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 17 October 2010 15:11 (fifteen years ago)

three weeks pass...

Posey takes IBA NL Rookie (I suspect the decisive votes were cast after the Braves got beat):

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12404

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 9 November 2010 18:58 (fifteen years ago)

RIP Never Forget...
Stephen Strasburg, pitcher and Scott Boras client

i love you but i have chosen snarkness (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, 9 November 2010 19:24 (fifteen years ago)


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