the amazing 2010 NL cy young predictatron fun time poll

Interesting race in one respect: they're incredibly close statistically, yet Halladay will probably (and should) win unanimously. There's no compelling rationale to vote for Wainwright...I don't think there is, anyway--am I missing something? (I was defending Jiminez as the All-Star starter at the break. Thought he rebounded well from his bad stretch, and still had an impressive season; no run support the last few starts cost him 20 wins.)

Oswalt.

josh johnson

gagne

ollie

i am brain damaged for ubaldo

oh but halladay will win easily if that's what we're predicting

Oswalt will win WS MVP, Halladay will do well but when all is said and done, is merely the 2nd best pitcher named Roy on the team tbqf.

I love Ubaldo so much but he wasn't the best NL pitcher. He had some superb games, some good games, some shaky games and some bad games, and just too many of the latter two to take him out of contention. 2nd best, maybe? 3rd?

Ciderpress: I'm also wondering how you arrived at Jiminez. I advocated hard for him at the break, but that month or two rough patch really undermined his first half. He did rebound at the end, and did still have (I'm pretty sure) the greatest year ever for a Colorado starter, but I can't see voting for him over Halladay.

Shasta in full nursing-home mode

It's not like we didn't know at the ASB that Jiminez's season was an illusion being propped up by luck. Too bad Josh Johnson got hurt because this could have been a really interesting three-way race.

An illusion propped up by luck? That's pretty severe for a guy who was 19-8 with a sub-3.00 ERA in Colorado. Joshnson and Jiminez are the same age, and based on what they'd done prior to this year, I don't see how Jiminez's year is any more of an illusion than Johnson's.

shasta challopsing hard for oswalt still huh

I think Jimenez's luck at the break was pretty clear, both in terms of his stats and the way games and innings fell for him (his 92% strand rate, for example). BUT he was still probably the standout pitcher even taking this into account. Unfortunately, he had several games where his control let him down - it seemed that batters simply waited for a strike to hit and took the walk if it didn't come. But he certainly levered himself back into candidacy over the last ten or so games of the season, and here's a stat that amply shows his luck has well and truly turned - his last 8 quality starts provided ZERO wins.

And yes, this was, by 0.5 ERA, the best year ever by a Colorado pitcher.

xxxp: ubaldo's probably a tick below halladay but the park factor for coors this year was enormous, almost pre-humidor levels, and he put up the best rockies pitching season ever by a fair margin (his 2009 season was the previous best btw)

halladay was more dominant due to his much lower walk rate but results-wise his extra innings and lead in ERA only barely beat out a park-adjusted ubaldo in all the player value calculations (WAR etc)

Do you mean Coors proved itself to be almost pre-humidor? Because I didn't hear anything about the park factor being any different to last year.

Ok, I just looked it up. Jesus.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

That is just ridiculous! In 2009 it was 1.24 and in 2008 a miniscule 1.13 - my memory tells me it was supposed to be about 1.19 this year, I think? Carlos Gonzalez has a lot to answer for.

also while we're on the topic, i think it's interesting that the common perception of hitters vs pitchers parks is almost entirely based on home runs and not overall run scoring. most parks actually play pretty close to neutral since if it's easier to hit a home run it's generally harder to hit a double or triple.

FOR EXAMPLE: citizens bank (PHI) and great american (CIN) are considered hitters parks but have actually played about neutral. AT&T (SFG) has always been considered a pitchers park, but it actually played as a hitters park for the past few years until this year when it balanced back out. the oakland coliseum has played about neutral too.

fuck factoring park effects into it. really statheads are going down that route? i guess they're already a part of WAR and WARP but won't those arguments alienate the codgers (aka actual voters)?

for some inexplicable reason i have no problem denying CarGo the MVP due to his home away splits.. but it seems a little unfair to deny Mat Latos the 2013 Cy Young because of where he pitches.

sanskrit, even you must be aware that doesn't work. Try being a Rockies fan and watch hitter after hitter dismissed because of where they play their home games. Ubaldo should at the very least get recognition for superb pitching in a hitters park and, yes, Latos's Petco exploits have to take park factors into account.

uh, you do know that Koufax and Drysdale were overrated bcz of Dodger Stadium, right skrit?

also won't Latos be in the Bronx by '13?

Either the Bronx or the loving arms of Dr. James Andrews.

park effects aren't exactly a stathead thing, sportswriters have been wary of colorado hitting numbers for a long time (e.g. todd helton finished 5th in MVP voting in 2000 despite leading the league in hits, doubles, RBI, batting average, OBP, SLG, and total bases)

And that's fair enough (frustrating, but fair - or at least it would be if our pitchers got comparative praise).

according to that bbref park/year translator, mat latos's 2.90 ERA translates to a 5.25 ERA if he was on the 2000 rockies o_O

if park effects are going to be part of the equation then luck has to be in it too. what easy to digest metric should the voters factor in? strand rate? fip and xfip? something simple plz.

The difference with luck is that it evens out with every game and every pitch.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

well that settles that.

Who is brain damaged; who is retarded?

Morbs for Johan?

I picked "I am brain damaged" because it seemed true to me.

Also I felt more people should have been listed, even if Roy is a worthy winner.

ya sorry. you know how i can get with Doc.

according to that bbref park/year translator, mat latos's 2.90 ERA translates to a 5.25 ERA if he was on the 2000 rockies o_O

― ciderpress, Wednesday, October 6, 2010 11:21 AM (5 days ago) Bookmark

i dug around there but couldn't find the tool. is it a tool or did you do the numbers by hand? link?

go to the player page, click More Stats, scroll down to neutralized pitching

they've got 1968 dodgers and 2000 rockies presets as the 2 fun extremes, and then you can also set it to any particular year/team i think

i think all it does is translates based on runs scored in that particular park/year. pre-humidor coors had almost twice the scoring of current petco so that's where that comes from

probably would have helped if i had been looking on bbref not prospectus :/

btw if anyone has K.Law's award ballot from behind premium wall, post.