the amazing 2010 NL cy young predictatron fun time poll

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what say you?

Poll Results

OptionVotes
Roy Halladay 14
Adam Wainwright 1
i am brain damaged 1


got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 5 October 2010 23:46 (fifteen years ago)

Interesting race in one respect: they're incredibly close statistically, yet Halladay will probably (and should) win unanimously. There's no compelling rationale to vote for Wainwright...I don't think there is, anyway--am I missing something? (I was defending Jiminez as the All-Star starter at the break. Thought he rebounded well from his bad stretch, and still had an impressive season; no run support the last few starts cost him 20 wins.)

clemenza, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 00:03 (fifteen years ago)

Oswalt.

Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 6 October 2010 00:39 (fifteen years ago)

josh johnson

J0rdan S., Wednesday, 6 October 2010 00:41 (fifteen years ago)

gagne

ಠ_ಠ (bnw), Wednesday, 6 October 2010 00:45 (fifteen years ago)

ollie

sanskrit, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 01:12 (fifteen years ago)

i am brain damaged for ubaldo

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 05:03 (fifteen years ago)

oh but halladay will win easily if that's what we're predicting

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 05:04 (fifteen years ago)

Oswalt will win WS MVP, Halladay will do well but when all is said and done, is merely the 2nd best pitcher named Roy on the team tbqf.

Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 6 October 2010 05:08 (fifteen years ago)

I love Ubaldo so much but he wasn't the best NL pitcher. He had some superb games, some good games, some shaky games and some bad games, and just too many of the latter two to take him out of contention. 2nd best, maybe? 3rd?

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 11:01 (fifteen years ago)

Ciderpress: I'm also wondering how you arrived at Jiminez. I advocated hard for him at the break, but that month or two rough patch really undermined his first half. He did rebound at the end, and did still have (I'm pretty sure) the greatest year ever for a Colorado starter, but I can't see voting for him over Halladay.

clemenza, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 11:19 (fifteen years ago)

Shasta in full nursing-home mode

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 October 2010 11:27 (fifteen years ago)

It's not like we didn't know at the ASB that Jiminez's season was an illusion being propped up by luck. Too bad Josh Johnson got hurt because this could have been a really interesting three-way race.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 11:45 (fifteen years ago)

An illusion propped up by luck? That's pretty severe for a guy who was 19-8 with a sub-3.00 ERA in Colorado. Joshnson and Jiminez are the same age, and based on what they'd done prior to this year, I don't see how Jiminez's year is any more of an illusion than Johnson's.

clemenza, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 12:32 (fifteen years ago)

shasta challopsing hard for oswalt still huh

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 12:38 (fifteen years ago)

I think Jimenez's luck at the break was pretty clear, both in terms of his stats and the way games and innings fell for him (his 92% strand rate, for example). BUT he was still probably the standout pitcher even taking this into account. Unfortunately, he had several games where his control let him down - it seemed that batters simply waited for a strike to hit and took the walk if it didn't come. But he certainly levered himself back into candidacy over the last ten or so games of the season, and here's a stat that amply shows his luck has well and truly turned - his last 8 quality starts provided ZERO wins.

And yes, this was, by 0.5 ERA, the best year ever by a Colorado pitcher.

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 12:44 (fifteen years ago)

xxxp: ubaldo's probably a tick below halladay but the park factor for coors this year was enormous, almost pre-humidor levels, and he put up the best rockies pitching season ever by a fair margin (his 2009 season was the previous best btw)

halladay was more dominant due to his much lower walk rate but results-wise his extra innings and lead in ERA only barely beat out a park-adjusted ubaldo in all the player value calculations (WAR etc)

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 12:51 (fifteen years ago)

Do you mean Coors proved itself to be almost pre-humidor? Because I didn't hear anything about the park factor being any different to last year.

Ok, I just looked it up. Jesus.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

That is just ridiculous! In 2009 it was 1.24 and in 2008 a miniscule 1.13 - my memory tells me it was supposed to be about 1.19 this year, I think? Carlos Gonzalez has a lot to answer for.

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 13:10 (fifteen years ago)

also while we're on the topic, i think it's interesting that the common perception of hitters vs pitchers parks is almost entirely based on home runs and not overall run scoring. most parks actually play pretty close to neutral since if it's easier to hit a home run it's generally harder to hit a double or triple.

FOR EXAMPLE: citizens bank (PHI) and great american (CIN) are considered hitters parks but have actually played about neutral. AT&T (SFG) has always been considered a pitchers park, but it actually played as a hitters park for the past few years until this year when it balanced back out. the oakland coliseum has played about neutral too.

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 13:25 (fifteen years ago)

fuck factoring park effects into it. really statheads are going down that route? i guess they're already a part of WAR and WARP but won't those arguments alienate the codgers (aka actual voters)?

for some inexplicable reason i have no problem denying CarGo the MVP due to his home away splits.. but it seems a little unfair to deny Mat Latos the 2013 Cy Young because of where he pitches.

sanskrit, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 14:54 (fifteen years ago)

sanskrit, even you must be aware that doesn't work. Try being a Rockies fan and watch hitter after hitter dismissed because of where they play their home games. Ubaldo should at the very least get recognition for superb pitching in a hitters park and, yes, Latos's Petco exploits have to take park factors into account.

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 14:59 (fifteen years ago)

uh, you do know that Koufax and Drysdale were overrated bcz of Dodger Stadium, right skrit?

also won't Latos be in the Bronx by '13?

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:00 (fifteen years ago)

Either the Bronx or the loving arms of Dr. James Andrews.

Andy K, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:07 (fifteen years ago)

park effects aren't exactly a stathead thing, sportswriters have been wary of colorado hitting numbers for a long time (e.g. todd helton finished 5th in MVP voting in 2000 despite leading the league in hits, doubles, RBI, batting average, OBP, SLG, and total bases)

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:15 (fifteen years ago)

And that's fair enough (frustrating, but fair - or at least it would be if our pitchers got comparative praise).

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:19 (fifteen years ago)

according to that bbref park/year translator, mat latos's 2.90 ERA translates to a 5.25 ERA if he was on the 2000 rockies o_O

ciderpress, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:21 (fifteen years ago)

if park effects are going to be part of the equation then luck has to be in it too. what easy to digest metric should the voters factor in? strand rate? fip and xfip? something simple plz.

sanskrit, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 15:54 (fifteen years ago)

The difference with luck is that it evens out with every game and every pitch.

Mark C, Wednesday, 6 October 2010 16:36 (fifteen years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

System, Saturday, 9 October 2010 23:01 (fifteen years ago)

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

System, Sunday, 10 October 2010 23:01 (fifteen years ago)

well that settles that.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 11 October 2010 03:26 (fifteen years ago)

Who is brain damaged; who is retarded?

Astronaut Mike Dexter (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, 11 October 2010 03:49 (fifteen years ago)

Morbs for Johan?

Fartbritz Sootzveti (Steve Shasta), Monday, 11 October 2010 03:51 (fifteen years ago)

I picked "I am brain damaged" because it seemed true to me.

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Monday, 11 October 2010 04:42 (fifteen years ago)

Also I felt more people should have been listed, even if Roy is a worthy winner.

funky house skeptic (polyphonic), Monday, 11 October 2010 04:42 (fifteen years ago)

ya sorry. you know how i can get with Doc.

got electrolytes (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 11 October 2010 15:34 (fifteen years ago)

according to that bbref park/year translator, mat latos's 2.90 ERA translates to a 5.25 ERA if he was on the 2000 rockies o_O

― ciderpress, Wednesday, October 6, 2010 11:21 AM (5 days ago) Bookmark

i dug around there but couldn't find the tool. is it a tool or did you do the numbers by hand? link?

sanskrit, Monday, 11 October 2010 21:20 (fifteen years ago)

go to the player page, click More Stats, scroll down to neutralized pitching

they've got 1968 dodgers and 2000 rockies presets as the 2 fun extremes, and then you can also set it to any particular year/team i think

ciderpress, Monday, 11 October 2010 21:24 (fifteen years ago)

i think all it does is translates based on runs scored in that particular park/year. pre-humidor coors had almost twice the scoring of current petco so that's where that comes from

ciderpress, Monday, 11 October 2010 21:27 (fifteen years ago)

probably would have helped if i had been looking on bbref not prospectus :/

sanskrit, Tuesday, 12 October 2010 14:39 (fifteen years ago)

btw if anyone has K.Law's award ballot from behind premium wall, post.

kind of shrill and very self-righteous (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 12 October 2010 14:44 (fifteen years ago)


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