2011 Hall of Fame election

January's BBWAA ballot:

Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Barry Larkin, Al Leiter, Edgar Martinez, Tino Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Raul Mondesi, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Kirk Rueter, Benito Santiago, Lee Smith, B.J. Surhoff, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker.

Veterans Committee ballot:

*George Steinbrenner
*Vida Blue
*Dave Concepcion
*Steve Garvey
*Ron Guidry
*Tommy John
*Al Oliver
*Ted Simmons
*Rusty Staub
*Billy Martin
*Pat Gillick
*Marvin Miller

Here's who is on the committee:

Hall of Famers
*Johnny Bench
*Whitey Herzog
*Eddie Murray
*Jim Palmer
*Tony Perez
*Frank Robinson
*Ryne Sandberg
*Ozzie Smith

Executives
*Bill Giles
*David Glass (what the fuck)
*Andy MacPhail
*Jerry Reinsdorf

Veteran Media Members
*Bob Elliott (Toronto Sun)
*Tim Kurkjian (ESPN)
*Russ Newhan (LA Times)
*Tom Verducci (SI)

I'm sure they'll find a way to fuck Marvin Miller again this year

On the merits: Alomar, Bagwell, Edgar, McGwire, Palmeiro, Miller, Gillick

Wouldn't bother me a bit, even if they probably wouldn't be on my own ballot: Blyleven, Raines, Trammell

(You can now berate me for thinking Edgar Martinez should go in ahead of Tim Raines.)

Close: Smith, Walker.

Who I'd actually vote for, in light of what we know and, for the time being at least, what I suspect: Alomar, Edgar, Miller, Gillick.

pretty sure Miller doesn't want in at this point; he asked (formally or not) to be removed from consideration.

Didn't know that--good for him. "Badges? We don't need no stinkin' badges!"

bagwell and blyleven are the 2 no-brainers here

alomar, larkin, edgar, raines would all be cool too

I missed Larkin; I should have added him to my "Wouldn't bother me a bit, even if they probably wouldn't be on my own ballot" category. (I've always been bothered by how many partial seasons he had--by my count, he only reached 140 games seven times--and I don't think he was the best choice the year he won his MVP. But obviously he was often a great player.)

Contradicting yourself in record time; I guess Larkin would bother me, a bit.

surprised PED McCarthyism hasn't touched Bagwell. Look at his rookie card sometime.

But I think it has touched him--even Neyer alluded to that yesterday. (I don't really think it's McCarthyism to suspect Bagwell of having used PEDs--even your own post points to some circumstantial evidence that's hard to ignore. As was, in retrospect, his sudden transformation in 1994 from Mark Grace into Jimmie Foxx, and as was his body completely breaking down post-testing.)

You've got to stop yelling "McCarthyism" at anyone who doesn't share the "Steroids? So what?" viewpoint. There is room for a legitimate difference of opinion on this matter.

man can't grow a goatee like that without PEDs (see also: gagne, mcgwire, possibly buhner)

Not to mention all those people in Pearl Jam and Alice and Chains--PEDs, every one of them.

"In," not "and"--two bands, not three.

I think it's baseball witch-huntery when the case is reduced to "look, he's bigger"

No, it's "look, he's bigger" and "geez, his slugging percentage just jumped 250 points all of a suddden."

Anyway, let's not have this argument for the nine millionth time. Again, my only point: people see this issue differently.

how did Raul Mondesi make this list?!

i think anyone who played 10+ seasons is eligible?

I think they winnow a bit, but not much

That's right:

http://baseballhall.org/hall-famers/rules-election/future-eligibles

Thinking of some of the names I've seen on the ballot over the years, Mondesi wouldn't be anywhere near the worst--last year there was Greg Vaughn, Dunston in 2008, Bobby Witt and Scott Brosius in 2007, etc.

Thinwall: don't forget, we only saw the late-stage Mondesi in Toronto, and you're right, not pretty. He had a few pretty solid years in L.A., though.

what!? no wayne tolleson?

Dave Fleming, a contributor to James's site, has a round-up of all the new names on the ballot. We were talking about Mondesi upthread; Fleming gives a good summary of how, early in his career, Mondesi actually looked like a potential HOF'er (especially doing his hitting in Dodger Stadium):

At the end of 1997, you would’ve thought Mondesi was a good candidate for the Hall of Fame. He was 26 that year...he hit .310 with 42 doubles, 30 homeruns, and 32 steals. He won his first Gold Glove in the outfield. His on-base percentage jumped from .334 to .360. He had 100 homeruns on his career, hadn’t had any injuries. His most comparable player was Billy Williams. Then Freddie Lynn. Then Dave Parker.

He didn't get better...

And it goes on from there.

Charles Johnson was one of those guys that was really hyped up big when he was coming out of Miami-U. The guy had the glove, but he never hit at all like they expected him to be able to do.

John Olerud is hard one to figure, that dude was generally good player, but he has a couple of years where his batting average spikes like 50 points above the norm.

B.J. Surhoff seemed to play FOREVER and played a ton of different positions.

Larry Walker probably won't make it into the Hall, but he was a heck of a ballplayer and he had one sweet swing.

wasn't he an epic prick? (not that it has any bearing)

I'm really interested in the Walker vote. I think he'll be a test run for Helton, even though I know there's a lot that's different about them--just in terms of how much voters are going to penalize anybody who ran up numbers in Colorado. One thing about Walker: in his MVP year, he actually had more home runs (29-20) and a higher slugging pct. (.733-.709) on the road than at home, although his BA and OBP were higher in Colorado.

Was he really a bad guy? I've never heard that--the first thing that I think about is how funny he was hitting against Johnson in the All-Star Game.

Walker is borderline for me, and like you said, he wasn't helped by Coors nearly as much as people think. And Walker was a great hitter before and after he left Colorado, which wasn't the case for a lot of other guys.

You and I may have a small nationalistic bias here...James once wrote that Walker would have been the perfect 1950s Yankee.

xp but wasn't Olympic also a notorious hitters ballpark?

Larry Walker's problem was that he didn't stay healthy. All his rate stats look amazing, but he only got to 150 games ONCE in 17 years which dinged his counting stats badly.

You're right--never realized Walker's GP were so spotty. Lack of 150-game seasons is really the main problem I have with Raines and Larkin.

and the winner is Pat Gillick. MM one vote shy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof11/news/story?id=5890610

Pat Gillick Elected To Hall Of Fame
Tim Kurkjian on Pat Gillick election to the Hall of Fame and George Steindrenner missing out

lol boston fans epsn bias

I'm on the fence with Steinbrenner, but any Jays fan is going to be thrilled about Gillick.

from marvin miller's statement:

"It is an amusing anomaly that the Hall of Fame has made me famous by keeping me out."

Gillick's a great choice, I'm glad he's getting his due. And to think that Jays fans used to ridicule him in the 80's (his nickname for a while was "Stand" Pat Gillick) when the team couldn't get over the ALCS hump.

It seems like Gillick got voted in because he was the safe, non-controversial choice, i.e. committee members wanted to vote for somebody but wanted to stay clear of a potential Miller/Steinbrenner shitstorm, so they chose Gillick. I'm not saying that Gillick isn't deserving, but for instance someone who wouldn't vote for Steinbrenner because not enough time has passed to "put his career into perspective" can't justify voting for Gillick now.

Steinbrenner is such a tough call for me. He did good stuff, and he did heinous stuff--and I don't mean the serial firings, but things that were actually criminal. His bad stuff is probably far worse than the PED users I prefer to put on hold for the time being. Supposedly he was great helping out players and former employess were down on their luck, and he seemed to soften in his later years (perhaps with one eye on the HOF). I honestly don't know if he should go in or not.

I think every executive/owner in the HOF did very good and very harmful things (OK, maybe not criminal things, but did Steinbrenner affect the integrity of the game by giving illegal campaign contributions? I can't see how.)

When somebody dominates baseball headlines for 30+ years, I don't see how he can NOT go to the HOF.

he's bigger than the hall.

I could see where illegal campaign contributions could maybe get you some favorable zoning regulations or something like that at some point, but basically, no, there's no direct connection to the integrity of the game. (Beyond the obvious, that you're a powerful owner who has very little integrity.) And I basically agree that dominating the headlines for a long period of time is a strong argument for induction--with the obvious caveat that mostly you should be dominating for positive things, like winning championships. Marge Schott dominated the headlines for 5-10 years, and you wouldn't want her anywhere near the Hall. Were Steinbrenner's headlines on balance for positive things, things that benifitted the game? I don't know--probably.

i was reading a book of compiled public apologies. Marge Schott had two entire pages.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/12/07/marvin.miller.hof/

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Aqc4QTMoPrdtdDQxaDYzd1lLOGpOdUdrcnNNNWNXa2c&authkey=CPyuwqIJ&hl=en&pli=1#gid=5

ballot tracker

My man

keithlaw keithlaw
Without a doubt. RT @Sbennett15: @keithlaw You think Lou Whitaker was HOF-worthy?

keithlaw keithlaw
If I had a #HOF ballot, I'd vote for Alomar, Blyleven, Raines, Edgar, Bagwell, Larkin, and Trammell.

Szymborski:

I'd vote for Kevin Appier before Morris.

To get to Morris's 105 ERA+ in the 1228 missing innings, Appier would have had to pitch 1228.2 innings of 6.23 ERA baseball.

Does anyone think that 1228.2 innings of 6.23 ERA baseball would have enhanced Appier's career value?

To match Jack Morris, Kevin Brown would have had to throw 567.2 innings of 7.92 ERA ball.

And for Dave Stieb, he'd have been as "valuable" as Jack Morris with 928.2 innings of 5.86 ERA.

For Morris to match Blyleven's IP/ERA+, he would need 1146 IP of 2.04 ERA ball.

So essentially, if you vote for Morris and not Blyleven, you are saying that 1146 IP of 2.04 ERA ball has negative value.

1146 IP of 2.04 comes to 4 and a half seasons of 254.2 IP with a 207 ERA+

Derek Lowe to match Jack Morris - 1495.1 innings of 4.88 ball. Above replacement now, but any HoF should be crushing Lowe.

B-b-b-but Jack Morris was so good that he could pitch to the score!

would Morris be the worst player in the hall if he gets in? There'd at least be a decent argument for it, right?

Maybe of the modern era but there are plenty of lousier old tyme-y players in there.

maybe worst non-VC selection then.

he's a gamer, he's a winner, he's a man of deep faith

Agree with you totally there. I've made it clear that I'm still on the fence as to PED usage; I think it's silly, though, when a player's reaction to being found out becomes part of the equation. Pettitte bows his head remorsefully and says "Aw, shucks," and it's forgotten about; Palmeiro waves an admonishing finger and lies--in a place where people fudge numbers and knowingly tell fibs every day--and he's an outcast. (And after he lies, he goes in back and signs autographs for the people who are so outraged by his lying.) With Clemens and Bonds, where you may be lying to a Grand Jury, that's a separate issue. Otherwise, I don't think how remorseful you are, or how well you fake sincerity when apologizing, should matter at all.

(In my everyday life, when kids do stupid things on the schoolyard, I often let the kid who says "Sorry, I won't do it again" off with a warning, whereas those who lie or get argumentative, they're the ones who are more inclined to end up in the office. So I'm a hypocrite on this matter.)

eh that's not hypocrisy, that's the difference between kids and adults

(Bows head remorsefully, puts theory to test):

CAD, I would like to apologize for our run-in on the Blyleven-Palmer matter a few weeks ago.

There's a Pettitte HOF poll up on baseballreference.com:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9854

I haven't waded through the comments yet (140 and counting). Right now, it's close to an even split on whether he'll actually get in: 48% yes, 52% no. As to whether he deserves to get in, not so close: 28% yes, 72% no.

His Yankee career should mean he loses say 10% from his W total before the rest of his stats are even considered. Would 220 wins qualify?

i think pettitte's gonna have a jack morris-like run towards the HOF and like morris he may get in, may not. the wild card is definitely how folks view his PED use. it's kinda funny how he's regarded as this noble figure whereas clemens is regarded as a total d-bag (of course pettitte just seems a lot classier and chill than rog, who is basically MLB's version of lance armstrong (w/floyd landis' low-level ability at navigating his own troubled waters.)

)

CAD, I would like to apologize for our run-in on the Blyleven-Palmer matter a few weeks ago.

― clemenza, Saturday, February 5, 2011 11:13 AM (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

i'm sorry too clem :)

(Everybody sing gently) Kumbayah, my lord, kumbayah...

It's hilarious how some people will wave off Pettitte's PED use and say he's a HOFer, but turn around and say that McGwire shouldn't be in the HOF because PED's OBVIOUSLY were the reasons he hit all those HRs and OBVIOUSLY wouldn't have put up HOF numbers otherwise.

Anyway, Pettitte is no HOFer -- he had two, maybe three Cy Young caliber seasons. There were probably 30-40 other pitchers in the past twenty years who had better five-year peaks than him.

more Pettitte pettifoggery:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/2/7/1980801/andy-pettitte-and-the-hall-of-fame-redux

Posnanski's turn:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/02/06/pettitte-junction/

Ryan (Boston)
Re: Pettitte and the HoF. So we are all in agreement that voters only care about PED use if it involves muscley hitters blasting homeruns, yes?

Klaw (1:01 PM)
You're not giving writers enough credit. It's a complicated calculus, involving other variables like contrition (real and perceived) and ethnicity.

so, gary sheffield has officially filed his retirement papers. HE says he deserves induction, but what's new, i guess?

Sheffield case depends on two things: 1) how important do you think the PED allegations are and 2) how much weight you give to his mediocre/lousy fielding. His case is better than Pettite's though.

I don't know what I think about Sheffield. He definitely had one HOF, near-Triple Crown year pre-PED (1992). James ragged on him for years, then, after he started working for the Red Sox, did an about-face and wrote a long thing about how he never realized how great Sheffield was until he saw him up close.

What's to rag on? At the very least the dude was very amusing. That said as all bat no glove OFers go, I'd rather have Manny being Manny. What's interesting is that Sheffield was a real athlete (I believe he came up as a SS, I believe) so his defense ineptitude (assuming the #s are argument) isn't the usual bad body/lead feet stuff you see so frequently.

# are accurate, ahem

Yeah, Sheffield was SS/3B until '94.

Sheffield's also one of the few dudes who was in the Little League WS and went on to be a big league All Star, I think.

sheffield's year to year Rfield column on bbref is a sight to behold

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml#batting_value::none

with average defense for his career he would have been over 80 WAR which is pretty much an inarguable HOF lock, dunno what to think of him now

63 is considered sort of borderline, no?

I think what James used to criticize Sheffield for (I'd have to go back and check) was the same thing a lot of people criticized him for: deserved or not, he had a reputation as a malcontent who bounced from team to team. I'm always a little wary of such charges when levelled against a black player; anyway, I have no idea whether there was some validity there or not.

xp yeah, literally everyone at 70+ bbref WAR is in or will be in except for Rose, but as soon as you drop below 70 you hit all sorts of guys who are considered borderline, like Trammell and Whitaker and Edgar Martinez and such.

sheffield was great almost up until the end, and i forgot how eye-popping his first half was in '07 (the second half was so poor that his overall numbers that season are merely "ok" compared to the rest of his career):

1st half

82 games
78(!) runs
21 hr
58 rbi
52 bb
.303/.410/.560

2nd half

51 games
29 runs
4 hr
17 rbi
32 bb
.203/.324/.299(!)

clemenza - i don't want to start this kind of argument, but what does the colour of his skin have to do with his being a malcontent (or not)?

It seems like black players get that label a little easier than others, though obv in Sheff's case he really earned it

yeah we don't really need to have this conversation because sheff was truly and actually a malcontent who bounced from team to team

Maybe my post wasn't clear...I have no idea whether Sheffield was a malcontent or not; historically, black players have been deemed malcontents far more readily than white players, and I was saying that, for that reason, I'm a little skeptical when that charge gets levelled at a black player, even today. Two famous examples: Dick Allen and Clemente. Another example you'll know, Thinwall: George Bell.

do you consider the "adam dunn hates baseball" rep to fit sort of into the malcontent category? obviously, he doesn't TOTALLY fit in here, but just curious.

i guess black guys might get that label more often - but you still have your Kents and Pierzynskis too.

Those guys were hated more by their teammates than the press though. I think players hate other players equal opportunity.

i think everybody enjoyed seeing AJ get punched in the face.

the "adam dunn hates baseball" rep -- you're talking about JP Ricciardi's rep here?

add "jd drew shows no emotion" to that list

there's probably some kind of "real yankee/false yankee" list that can be moderated by mike mussina

question re: ricciardi/dunn?

how so? was it ricciardi that first said that? it's certainly caught on.

i think the other big one is the lazy latin ballplayer. oh, my...the vile stuff i used to hear on philly radio about abreu. oof.

re: Ricciardi - yes it was.

here in Toronto it sort of caught on as a "Ricciardi flapping his gums when he probably should have just shut the fuck up" mantra.

I think with Clemente, the writers got on him for being a hypochondriac. And they insisted on calling him "Bobby," even thought he made it clear he wanted to be called Roberto. (Similar to Dick/Richie Allen.)

"here in Toronto it sort of caught on as a "Ricciardi flapping his gums when he probably should have just shut the fuck up" mantra."

I think that was how it caught on everywhere. Even if it was true (and by all accounts it's not) why the hell are you getting a debate with a fan on talk radio about this?

because Ricciardi loves to hear his voice.

only saw about 20 secs each of Bert and Robbie.

Kahrl on overlooked candidates from the '80s:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14104/stars-of-the-forgotten-80s

kind looking forward to a billion words being written on Barry Bonds soon

IMO he clearly deserves to be in but sadly he probably won't make it right away

Pos posted something on his blog about "The Future of the HOF", I'm really looking forward to all the 2013-5 craziness.

Neyer predicting Larkin and Santo for next year.

Larkin's inning in the booth last night during the game smelled pretty campaigney.

btw the HOF shunted the Frick, Spink, and Buck O'Neil award winners to a separate Saturday ceremony.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14600

Roland Hemond comes to the SABR convention every year.

Pos posted something on his blog about "The Future of the HOF", I'm really looking forward to all the 2013-5 craziness.

Just read that. IMO Schilling and Biggio are probably going to get in. Piazza should but if the voters didn't vote in Bagwell, who knows? If Barry gets in, that opens the gates to guys like Clemens, Sosa, McGwire, etc. I hope people's stance on steroids has softened by then. I mean yes he cheated and all but he did so in an era of cheaters and even then was far and away one of the greatest hitters ever. Posting an OBP of .600 in your late-30's is impressive regardless of how much HGH you pump into your veins.

I guess this is like yelling at clouds, but: besides loving all the adulation in Toronto for Alomar right now, there's a small part of me that's been amused. I went to a couple of Jays games during Alomar's time with Baltimore and Cleveland, and I made it a point to clap during his every AB (stood up a couple of times too). I was of course surrounded by booing and hissing on all sides. I was unhappy with the way he handled his exit from Toronto too (was also amused by Alomar's current contention that he never wanted to leave Toronto--he was dying to get out in '95, and pulled all sorts of stuff to expedite that happening), but at a certain point, certainly by the time he got to Cleveland, let it go. He's the greatest Blue Jay we've ever seen*, I used to think--why are you still booing?

(*Will likely be passed by Halladay, eventually; some would probably say that's already happened.)