The End of Mangkind?: Your 2011 St. Louis Cardinals

Let us celebrate the signing Gerald Laird.

and pour one out for Brendan Ryan. I just hope for my city's sake that Theriot can be as small and as white.

Rotowire's Team Preview:

Strengths

A great 1-2 punch both in the offense (Pujols/Holliday) and pitching staff (Carpenter/Wainwright) makes up for a lot of holes…

Weaknesses …but oh my, are there a lot of holes. The Cardinals are counting on Colby Rasmus and David Freese to improve their games (and stay healthy), for Yadier Molina, Ryan Theriot, Skip Schumaker, and Lance Berkman to hit like they did a couple of years ago, for Jake Westbrook, Jaime Garcia, and Kyle Lohse to be 60 percent of the rotation, and for Ryan Franklin to give them one more successful season. That’s a lot of things that have to go right and could go wrong.

Rising: Colby Rasmus - Rasmus and his manager have had their differences and it's been played out in the media, but there's no doubt that he's a budding star. Although he's just 24 and should take a step up in 2011, there are a few warning signs. Rasmus hit a respectable .276 last year, but his BABIP was a bloated .358. He also struck out 148 times in just 464 at-bats. It wouldn't be a surprise to see his batting average plummet this year, even as his power numbers continue to improve. However, if his contact rate improves, there's reason to believe that Rasmus' numbers will be even better across the board this season.

Declining: Lance Berkman - You see that chart above, note that he’s 35 and has been on the DL three times in the last year-and-a-half. He’s breaking down.

Sleeper: Jason Motte – Motte took a huge step up in 2010, and it's clear he's next in line to close should Franklin falter, perhaps as early as this season. He retired 32 batters in a row at one point last year, and his 54:18 K:BB ratio helped him earn two saves and 12 holds. He missed three weeks with a shoulder injury in August, but after coming back, he didn't give up a run the rest of the season. This will probably be the last year that you’ll be able to get Motte cheap.

Supersleeper: Allen Craig – If he even makes the team out of spring training, Craig will likely be a fourth outfielder at best, but given his versatility and potential with the bat, he could find his way into a lot of playing time this year if he stays on La Russa’s good side.

ugh, I have a bad feeling about this year. I like David Freese, but still, the Freese/Theriot/Schumaker combo at 3B/SS/2B is just depressing. Frustrated with the GM for not doing anything whatsoever to improve this over the offseason, and I'd rather have Ryan than Theriot tbh.

Also troubling is that they have absolutely no depth. If, say, Carpenter goes down, the season is over. Hell, even if Jaime Garcia falls back to earth and turns in a 4.10 ERA/10 win season, the cards fall out of the playoff pitcher.

Hate to say it, but this is looking like another 86 win season, at best.

yeah, lots of questions in the line up this year...

i wonder if the ludwick trade will loom large this year

Yep. A lot of this season seems to be riding on the chance that Lance Berkman won't completely suck ass. The nightmare scenario is that Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Nick Punto and Tyler Greene each get more than 200 PA

nick punto is such a la russa player that it's like he was created in a lab -- really just his utter destiny to be on the cards

really wish nate silver was the cardinals manager

or GM, actually

ENJOY YOUR NEPTUNE'S LAIRD

A full year of Westbrook in the NL Central is good. Theriot can hit better with his eyes closed then Ryan.

Beyond that I see no other upticks. No confidence in Freese playing or Lohse performing. Also not hard to see Rasmus going 100% headcase and needing to be traded.

i think there's a fair chance this season berkman will be about as good as ludwick offensively speaking, considering ludwick's '08 came during his age 29 season and even w/r/t that seems to be an outlier along the lines of morgan ensberg's '05. as a cubs fan the cards worry me because their offensive stars are super-consistent and their 1-2 starters are each easily capable of winning a cy young.

pretty sure the union will prevent pujols from racking up his usual rbis in retribution for not 'setting the bar'

Theriot can hit better with his eyes closed then Ryan.

eh, maybe, but Ryan's defensive value more than made up for it. (Fangraphs has B-Ryan's WAR at 1.0, Theriot's at 0. They're both awful, but if anything Theriot was a downgrade)

yeah, ground ball pitching staff w/ absolute crap defense outside 1b and catcher is gonna be painful.

on ryan v. theriot: b-r has career WAR at 6.2 for ryan in 4 seasons vs. 4.9 for theriot in 6, fwiw.

but maybe theriot should hit w/ his eyes open?

do you have it for just 2010? I don't think Ryan will ever hit close to .290 again like he did in 2009.

Fangraphs has B-Ryan's WAR at 1.0, Theriot's at 0.

That was for 2010, I should have mentioned.

also there's a slight insult to injury w/ theriot because of the slight layer of schadenfreude that cubs fans will get to experience when he's hitting .255/.310 in july

then again the whole cubs being in fourth place should balance that out

Shifting to 2B - was Skip the worst everyday 2B in baseball last year?

Ryan doesn't strike out much, i don't think it's a stretch to suggest that last year was a down season for him and that he hits as well as Theriot this year.

.253 babip last year. ridiculously unlucky.

RIP Jim Edmonds

Jim Edmonds has retired, the Cardinals have announced (on Twitter). The 40-year-old, who agreed to a minor league deal with St. Louis earlier in the month, is still bothered by his right Achilles, so his playing days are over.

I never really followed the beefs between Colby Rasmus/Brendan Ryan and Pujols/LaRussa. What was the cause? Is it just personality-driven? Ryan was way too goofy and Rasmus seems like the kid who might blow up the school and you wouldn't think it was that surprising? Did it have to do with work ethic?

Or...I don't know, I was thinking about it, and if I were on the Cardinals I think I would have a hard time keeping my mouth shut about Pujols/TLR Glenn Beck fantasies.

iirc it wasn't completely personality driven, it was TLR being a dumbass and benching guys who weren't hitting for average, even though they were easily justifying their lineup spot with secondary skills (Rasmus still had the 2nd or 3rd best OPS on the team when he was benched for 'struggling')

i don't understand how TLR used to be perceived as being on the cutting edge of strategy (like i remember reading an article in the early 1990s about how he would go back into the clubhouse between innings and use the computer to look up splits on hitter/pitcher combinations), and now he'll keep a guy like skip schumaker in the lineup, apparently only because skip might hit close to .300...like that's the only thing that matters? i figured TLR would be all over sabermetrics...

"I'm a lawyer, dammit, not a number cruncher!"

Ryan had a tendency to show up late apparently, also one game he didn't get back on the field b/n innings during a Carp start. Not surprisingly Carp went ballistic on him in the dugout. His biggest hitting issue was he would change stances every day when he was struggling and looked 100% lost.

Rasmus is a headcase largely because of his controlling father who likes to troll message boards. He fields like runners will be scared of his arm, daring them to go and then throwing a 5 hop ball to the infield. And then he has to call his dad for batting tips instead of listening to say, mark friggin mcgwire.

Both these guys I really wanted to do well last year and just blame TLR, but they deserved a lot of the shit they got.

Cards dodge (self inflicted) bullet

Nick Punto needs surgery to repair a sports hernia and will miss 8-12 weeks.

Hopefully we can find another replacement level player to, er, replace him! *bites nails*

fuck it Ill do it

not sure you have the larussa mentality

I'm scrappy, put me in coach

Wainwright down. Looks like Tommy John. 12 months. Peace out 2011.

the end of wainkind

shit that's sad, always sucks to see a player that good have to miss a year

i don't understand how TLR used to be perceived as being on the cutting edge of strategy (like i remember reading an article in the early 1990s about how he would go back into the clubhouse between innings and use the computer to look up splits on hitter/pitcher combinations), and now he'll keep a guy like skip schumaker in the lineup, apparently only because skip might hit close to .300...like that's the only thing that matters? i figured TLR would be all over sabermetrics...

― Z S, Sunday, February 20, 2011 10:50 PM (3 days ago) Bookmark

La Russa's cerebral, academic approach to the game doesn't always yield the right answers, but you're always left with the idea that he's asking the right questions.

no definitive diagnosis as yet?

xp

Fuuuuuuuuuck.

On the Rockies forum we're discussing whether we'd write off the season if Jimenez went down like this. The answer appears to be yes, and I'm sure at least two dozen other teams are thinking the same. Sympathies.

tbh I was already really pessimistic about this season anyway. They did nothing to improve the team over the winter. If anything, they made it worse. Their strategy for this year seemed to be "hope that everyone has a breakout season and that no one gets hurt".

May as well start looking this as a rebuilding year, get some rookies quality playing time instead of letting grizzled vets hit .253/.304/.331 all year

the Phillies have a semi-used Joe Blanton theyd be willing to part with for the right price..

millwood getting mentioned most.

that's been the strat two consecutive seasons, ZS. seriously the hope this year was berkman and theriot would bring better clubhouse chemistry. that was the actual plan they went with.

what a sadly prophetic thread title

say fuck it & bring up shelby miller imo

2nd year in a row being a top heavy thin team has bitten them in the ass. people say thats why they can't sign pujols, but I think its more that's why you can't trade chris perez for 3 months of mark derosa.

Jonny Gomes walked into the Cincinnati Reds spring training clubhouse early Wednesday morning singing at the top of his warbly voice. The melody was not recognizable, but the words were plaintive: “Wainwright’s gone, Wainwright’s gone, Wainwright’s gone,” he sang joyously.

Is that real? Man, fuck the reds. Hate them more than the cubs tbh

Earlier in the game, the Cardinals were much looser. Corey Patterson put out a small fire in the dugout after players had given Shane Robinson a hot foot. Although some in the press box saw flames, La Russa hadn't been aware of the prank.

"There was no danger. We weren't going to let the guy's pants catch on fire," Patterson said. "I knew what was going on, but you've got to have two or three guys watching in case it gets out of hand."

Cards knocked their playoff odds down to 11% from 26% with that one loss.

Steven Goldman on TLR:

It was a strangely passive performance. The same thing struck me in Thursday’s game. When a pitcher like Motte, with good control, starts walking the ballpark, the manager’s radar should be set off by the uncharacteristic behavior. Leo Durocher used to say, “I wasn’t nailed to the bench,” meaning that when the game was in jeopardy he was free to act. LaRussa was nailed to the bench.

Cubbies tryin to nail the lid shut here

wow

yeesh, fuck u Marmol

up to sweeping Houston? pretty sweet deal

but Astros are on a 12-14 "run" in their last 26 games.

i think the one-game playoff is pretty likely here (that's what happens, right??)

yep. for the WC, it only happened with the Mets and Reds in '99?

Nope 98 and 07 too.

Full list here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_tie-breakers

oh, that bloody Holliday slide...

ROCKTOBER

big K of Pujols by Wandy to kill runner at 3rd

cards rallying, maing

the season is kinda coming down to this

this is like watching the first day of the ncaa tourney i swear

OMG PUJOLS IS SUCH A TROLL

byootiful double steal, and Fatelvis comes throo

this is like watching the first day of the ncaa tourney i swear

Do I hafta say it?

Wesley Wright weighs 95 pounds soaking wet.

Fat Elvis sending Atlanta to Heartbreak Hotel

mmm, it's early yet

that is a defensible Earl Weaver-style bunt

for some reason mlb network switched off this game

so how will it work if the Cards make it? has to be Brewers/Dbacks and Philles/Cards right?

yes

Jay with the Rey Ordonez-style timely popup

Nick Punto, complete baseball player.

nick punto

besides Carlos Lee and Bourgeious I don't recognize a single hitter in this Astros lineup

Ol' Dirtnap

Can't wait until Adron Chambers is up w/ runners in scoring position and two outs while Berkman sits.

he almost had a roof disaster there...

It figured we'd have one endless game tonight.

haha, fuck you and yr doubles trot, Yadier.

It makes a fel-la proud to be an Asssstro!

I missed it what happened?

TLR defensive replacements i.e. why get another AB to Freese and Furcal in a tie game when you could have Nick Punto and Daniel Descalso.

buuuut to put it all on TLR is a stretch. Cards haven't solved Wandy in like 3 years.

(apparently furcal was hurt)

wait, what??

out for next two. punto time ;(

furcal?? hurt????

G Laird PH

furcal hurt, holiday hurt, albert hurt(?)

cards alive ^_^

9 outs for our pen to get D:

turtle molina has gone 1st to home TWICE in one night.
800 yr old arthur rhodes is in, hide under your blankets

damn, so if the cards hold on they'll be two ties for the wild card race tomorrow...thank god we don't have the second wild card yet!!!

sanchez mows down 3 outs in 6th.
TLR leaves him in to bat in 7th.
takes him out after 1 easy out in 7th.......

sadly holliday is out so he can't pull berkman.

kind of cute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngmmJ8hyiH8

awful
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJtdYwDqLYU

shit, now I have to root for fucking TLR to beat the Philths.

from cheering phils to instant loathing

team deserves massive props. looked completely beat after brewers smacked them down.

TLR will get no credit