2011 ILB PREDICTATRON

only a week left, let's do this folks

some vegas odds, for reference:

http://i.imgur.com/L1bMT.png

http://i.imgur.com/3TbqY.png

i used ~*math*~ this year so i expect mine to be 100% correct

AL East: BOS
AL Cent: CHW
AL West: OAK
AL Wild: NYY
NL East: PHI
NL Cent: STL
NL West: LAD
NL Wild: SFG
AL Worst: KCR
NL Worst: PIT

and CHW over PHI i suppose

ALE: RAYZ
ALC: TWINZ
ALW: TEX
ALWC: SOX

NLE: PHILZ
NLC: REDZ
NLW: ROX
NLWC: GINTZ

AL Worst: JOKELAND FADERZ
NL Worst: METZ

RAYZ over PHILZ in 6

u r boring

i'll play:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Cent: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wild: Yankees

NL East: Phillies
NL Cent: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wild: Rockies

AL Worst: Blue Jays
NL Worst: Astros

Red Sox over the Giants in 7.

AL East: BOS
AL Cent: CHW
AL West: LAA
AL Wild: TB

NL East: PHI
NL Cent: MIL
NL West: LAD
NL Wild: ATL

AL Worst: CLE
NL Worst: PIT

AL east - bos
AL cen - twins
AL west - a's
wc - nyy

nl east - phils
nl cen - reds
nl west - giants
wc - brewers

al worst - royals
nl worst - pirates

ALE: TB
ALC: Mnn
ALW: Tx
ALWC: NYY

NLE: Phi
NLC: Cin
NLW: Gia
NLWC: Rockies

AL Worst: Seattle
NL Worst: pirates

Math makes the Dodgers win? Something's got to, I guess. The betting site I use has their over/under at 85 games and I immediately stuck a fair sum on the under.

Here's mine:

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Athletics
AL WC: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Rockies
NL WC: Phillies

AL Worst: Indians
NL Worst: Pirates

AL East: BoSox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Yanks

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Reds

AL Worst: Indians
NL Worst: Astros

AL East: BoSox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Yanks

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Reds

AL Worst: KC
NL Worst: Pitts

and you know Sox over SF for WS.

I'm terrible at baseball predictions, so I never try this. I do think the Braves will make the playoffs, though. (/homer)

2011 strength of schedule from ESPN magazine:

http://i.imgur.com/lT9Me.png

no surprise at who's got the hardest schedules

and the easiest schedule in the AL is still harder than the hardest in the NL, yikes

Can I still short the shit out of Phillies win expectancy? Youd think they'd have factored in all the Utley injury stuff.

they did pretty damn good with Utley out 1/3 of the season (?) last year. Tbqh, he wasn't even that great last year.

they also had jayson werth

aren't the vegas lines moved around based only on the amount of over vs under bets coming in? the wisdom of the masses has never been that accurate at projecting baseball. i'm curious what the Rays' over/under was in March 2008.

just found a vegas watch blogpost from Feb 2008 that had TBR at 72 wins, sweet

^like that blog. y'all should enter the o/u contest for kicks, i was kinda proud to finish almost top-20 i think last yr, tho of course that is worth nothing

http://vegaswatch.net/2011/03/mlb-totals-contest-2011.html

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Oakland
AL WC: New York

NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: Milwaukee
NL West: Los Angeles
NL WC: San Francisco

AL Worst: Kansas City
NL Worst: Pittsburgh

And BP is having a standings contest, but you have to give to Drs w/out Borders first (which I did a few weeks ago):

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13385

Not the Mets for NL East? :P

zzzzzz

how come so many people are picking the A's? i am very much underwhelmed by their line-up.

hi-ceiling pitching, competitive division

after seeing Ron Washington manage that WS, how can Texas be a shoo-in to win again?

The A's are so awful.

you would know, sage

not sure what's wrong with picking the A's, they were .500 last year and picked up a few more above-average hitters who will probably put up 'underwhelming' lines in that ballpark but still be better than what they had. don't think anyone in that division is good enough to run away with it, might be weaker than the Central this year

look out AL West - it's David DeJesus!

It will be Seattle vs. Oakland in a race for the cellar.

blind hatred, lol

re the Mets, the BP depth charts now have em at 81-81, and that sounds about right.

ESPN picks:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview/2011/news/story?page=11expertpicks

Tristan Cockraft

so Steve Berthiaume (who's name i do not recognize) picked the Astros to win their division!!!

let's presume that's a typo. If not, he MCs some episodes of Baseball Tonight, or did last year. Maybe John Kruk hacked into his picks.

It's pronounced "BER-thyoom."

His "back back backbackbackbackbackback... GONE" is "FILL THINE HORN WITH OIL... and go"

Maybe it has changed since MLB Network went on the air. I haven't watched much Baseball Tonight since then.

Ravech > that guy

I just looked over the Vegas odds that ciderpress posted at the top of the thread (my account is set to hide images so I didn't look at them until now) and there are some messed up lines there. Milwaukee at 100-1 odds to win the WS? In a weak division with one of the league's best starting rotations? Where do I sign up?

ok, he is a big dummy:

http://houston.sbnation.com/2011/3/30/2081031/espn-analyst-steve-berthiaume-picks-astros-to-win-nl-central

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Red Sox

NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Phillies

AL Worst: Mariners
NL Worst: Houston

I'm pretty sure one of us has linked/quoted some crazy thing written by Berthiaume.

NLE: PHILZ
NLC: REDZ
NLW: ROX
NLWC: GINTZ

NL Worst: METZ

― City of Jorts (Steve Shasta), Friday, March 25, 2011 5:27 PM (3 weeks ago)

supples my pupples

my my, patting yourself on the back for predictions on April 17. Not even a cunt like Murray Chass would do that.

lol

The A's are so awful.

― City of Jorts (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, March 30, 2011

3 out of 4 vs the league champs! How DO you do it?

Are the Mets are so bad that you now celebrate when your 2nd fave team goes 1 game over .500?

I celebrate anything that makes you look bad, u know that.

Okay, I'm sorry I picked the A's to be 4th place in the West as they currently enjoy a solid grip on 3rd place.

Dr. Morbius 30 day report card:

AL East: Boston (Last Place)
AL Central: Minnesota (Last Place)
AL West: Oakland (2nd to Last Place)
AL WC: New York (even a blind chicken...)

NL East: Atlanta (2nd to Last Place)
NL Central: Milwaukee (4th Place)
NL West: Los Angeles (2nd Place, good pickin' Morbsies)
NL WC: San Francisco (tied for 4th Place)

― your generation appalls me (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, March 30, 2011 6:34 PM

Wish you dudes would get a room.

We're not selling jeans here...

get back to me in 5 months, jeanzie

Midseason recap!

*** = nailed it
* = got close

ALE: RAYZ - 3.5 out, I think they can still do it.
ALC: TWINZ - 8 out, admittedly a total bust.
*** ALW: TEX - 1.5 lead, they got this imho
*** ALWC: SOX - WC lead, weird season: cold, hot, warm?

*** NLE: PHILZ - 4.5 game lead, they got this easy.
NLC: REDZ - 2.5 out, I think they can still do it.
NLW: ROX - 6.5 out, pretty disappointing. not counting them out, but thought they'd put up more of a fight.
*NLWC: GINTZ - NL West leaders, no idea how this team is staying afloat.

AL Worst: JOKELAND FADERZ - 3rd from the bottom, 3 games out of the AL basement. Perhaps only KC is a shittier team.
NL Worst: METZ - WOW, this team caught fire. Yet, soon or later the flames will go out and this zeppelin will go down hard.

^closet Phillie phan

admittedly, getting Wright back should kill the Mets

I like the Rays more than the Phils, but yes, no problem with Philly going all the way.

i got nearly everything wrong

btw no one's "nailed" anything on June 30. Specify you're predicting for midyear mebbe.

Thinking I would prefer asterisk indicators denoting how WRONG preds were rather than how right? After all, that's the main thing other ppl will be looking for, since spectacular fail is more spectacular than spectacular success.

(Not directed at Shasta at all -- just treating this as long-distance spectator sport :D)

re: spectacular fail - look at my picks.

*********check out sanskrit's ballot, pretty good job there.

SO FAR

yes, WE GET IT! just let us have our fun.

TO THIS POINT i'VE PICKED 5 OF THE PLAYOFF TEAMS TO sHASTA'S 4; THAT'S FUN

now you're getting it! (sort of)

revive?

sanskrit?

just LOL at all the Twins love, they were the worst in the AL btw.

RAYZ over PHILZ in 6

― City of Jorts (Steve Shasta), Friday, March 25, 2011 5:27 PM (6 months ago)

i'll play:

AL East: Red Sox
AL Cent: Twins
AL West: A's
AL Wild: Yankees

NL East: Phillies
NL Cent: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL Wild: Rockies

AL Worst: Blue Jays
NL Worst: Astros

Red Sox over the Giants in 7.

in the AL i got one
in the NL i got two
and i knew the Astros were going to be bad, the Blue Jays were OK.

in the AL you got 0

revive: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview/2011/news/story?page=11expertpicks

got NYY, PHI, STL

3 of 10 is good right??

ctrl-f "red sox"

more than 100 results

hall of fame terrible

http://i55.tinypic.com/2j2t634.png

maybe we should give partial credit for mixing up a pennant winner with a wild card pick and vice versa.

Somehow worse

http://i53.tinypic.com/25ixg13.png

AL East: BoSox
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL WC: Yanks

NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Brewers
NL West: Giants
NL WC: Reds

-- NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, March 28, 2011 3:50 PM (6 months ago) Bookmark

Well, these picks were looking pretty good on Sept. 1.

And yeah, we all bought into the Twins making another run this season. Heh.

why the dodgers love? altho they played well last 2 months after they were buried

on paper they have a dec looking team! not ashamed of having picked them. i feel dumb about picking Cleveland for last in the AL tho.

you can't predict baseball

(which is why S_S abd I both picked 2/8 playoff teams)

i predicted the Brewers! :D

wait, i did well with 4/10? huh?

braves over phils was my challops pick.

Thought I posted, but I know I was thinking BOS/CHI/TEX (NYY); PHI/MIL/LAD (ATL).

Milwaukee at 100-1 odds to win the WS? In a weak division with one of the league's best starting rotations? Where do I sign up?

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, March 31, 2011 4:12 PM (6 months ago) Bookmark

I should have put my money where my mouth was.