Who will win the NL Central (corrected options this time)

to a degree, i'm surprised at the performance of all four teams here.

at this point, i figured the brewers would have been running away with the division, but they've actually given up 9 more runs then they've scored so far this year. the pirates...well, wtf. the cardinals have struggled with injuries, but i'm hoping that they can pull a 2006 and win the division with <90 wins, but go on a hot streak during the playoffs. they're certainly capable. i fucking hate the reds, but expecting them to put together a long string of wins anytime and take the lead.

this is really tough

i think the pirates will fall back

brewers obviously have the pieces, but i think they have too many holes in their line up to make it last

both the cards & the reds are imperfect... i guess i just trust the reds pitching a bit more? it's hard to vote against the cardinals hitting tho.

i'm gonna reluctantly vote for the reds, but i wouldn't be at all surprised to see the cardinals (or i guess even the brewers) take it

regardless, the playoffs are gonna be awesome this year

you think so? feels like it's just going to be phillies stomping on everybody vs. either the sox or yankees (again)

does look like the cardinals have a very favorable schedule tho

oh i think the phillies hitting is suspect enough that they could be beat by the giants, the braves or whoever comes out of the central

i think a decent trade pickup would put the cards on top. NOT heath bell.

voted Cubs

after watching the Brewers all weekend makes me think they don't have the discipline to come out on top.

the Pirates are a great, great story but that probably won't last.

my pick, tho i wonder if they have the pitching to actually get there.

these Reds have to leap frog too many teams to get it done, though possible.

what's your pick? the cards?

i dont watch this div a lot but

brewers seem awful & surprise me theyre over .500, everytime i see them casey mcgehee strikes out w/ men on base

pirates are gonna be like the pads last yr and fall a bit short imo

cards/reds probably a toss up, guess ill vote stl

most likely the Cards, wd prefer anyone but

what's your pick? the cards?

yes, i like their lineup.

it's an honor merely to be invited to this poll.

the pirates are about to embark on a seven-game road trip to atlanta and philly, which i suspect will cool everyone's jets. hopefully before they do something crazy at the trade deadline.

as i mentioned in their thread, the bucs haven't hit a homer in seven games, while the cards hit six against them this weekend.

i feel like i might like the reds were they not from cincy and managed by dusty

i feel like i might like the cards were they not managed by tlr. i guess they're probably the best club tho

i voted cards before the season started and i'm sticking to it

voted redbirds, but my heart says "no one".

feel like the mets mindset of "lol phillies, why bother" is spreading around the nl.

b/c playoffs are a crapshoot iirc

yeah, the phillies are far from an overwhelming favorite

look what happened to Philly last year. it's essentially the same team unless they do something crazy trade-wise.

well hold on now

the pitching IS better

that said, their hitting is worse, so mayor jingle still pretty much otm

brewers seem awful & surprise me theyre over .500, everytime i see them casey mcgehee strikes out w/ men on base

This is one of their biggest problems. Casey hit two game winning PH HR's but besides that he almost always comes up small in big moments. he doesn't strike out a whole lot more but he's hitting a bunch more ground balls.

Between August 1st and September 7th, MIL and STL play 12 times. If one team goes like 8-4 in those games that should really wrap it up huh? Surprised that the Reds aren't in this more than they are; their offense is a powerhouse, but somehow I think their starting pitching is going to prevent them from going on a huge run.

I don't think the Phillies are an auto-win either as their offense doesn't seem very good right now, but being able to run Halladay/Lee/Hamels is going to be insane. Hopefully they can match up with Grienke/Marcum/Gallardo which would make for an awesome series.

I don't think the Phillies are an auto-win either as their offense doesn't seem very good right now, but being able to run Halladay/Lee/Hamels is going to be insane

yep, it's the pitching that puts them over the top for me. Oswalt is returning soon as well. It's not just that Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Oswalt are some of the best pitchers in the game, which they are, it's that they're all veterans as well who seem best suited for playoff pressure. I can see any one of them taking things into their own hands during the playoffs, elevating their game to a point where it doesn't matter what the offense does.

or they could choke. baseball's weird.

veterans...who seem best suited for playoff pressure

you really must stop listening to Baseball Tonight and MLBN.

Has anyone run numbers on rookie/veteran playoff performance? Rookies, second-through-fifth-year players, sixth-through-tenth-year players, Jamie Moyer, etc.

I may try to find some articles when I have time; I seem to recall no one's proved the vet clutchiness myth.

if nothing else you have to admit that Halliday and Lee have been sick in the postseason.

still, this is getting a little OT right now.

i'm wondering what people think Pittsburgh's odds are of making the postseason. like 3%? less?

most likely the Cards, wd prefer anyone but

― you call it trollin' i call it steamrollin' (Dr Morbius), Monday, July 25, 2011 4:26 AM (12 hours ago) Bookmark

Agreed. I'm surprised the Brewers haven't been playing better.

This morning BP has the Bucs at 3%. Cards 47, Brewers 46, Reds 11.

Those are actually playoff berth odds, not Central title; they give the Cards and Brewers slightly under a 3% shot at winning the WC.

veterans...who seem best suited for playoff pressure

you really must stop listening to Baseball Tonight and MLBN.

ha! i don't listen to either, but admittedly the veterans/playoff connection does resemble Baseball Wisdom that would get spouted off just before talk of a scrappy 2nd basemen who's a "real gamer".

but i still think there's something to the argument. all else equal, i'd take a pitcher with more experience in big games than a rookie who has never seen the playoffs. the "all else equal" is such a huge caveat that you'll never be able to use sabermetrics to find two pitchers of different ages that performed exactly the same, so it comes down to a gut feeling. If Jaime Garcia and Cliff Lee were pitchers of the exact same caliber, I'd still go with Cliff Lee in a big playoff game.

*ducks*

I'd like to know why people didn't criticize the Phillies last year for naming a guy with zero playoff experience as their Game 1 starter in the NLDS, when guys who had been there before, like Joe Blanton, were on the roster.

(just saying ... that wasn't a response to your post)

I'm sticking with my initial pick of the Reds. I'm hoping they can make a late season charge and spoil the shit out of the NLC. Nobody really wants the division anyways.

Losing Cozart really sucks for them though. Renteria or bust

oh i think the phillies hitting is suspect enough that they could be beat by the giants, the braves or whoever comes out of the central

― J0rdan S., Sunday, July 24, 2011 5:44 PM (Yesterday)

u mad.

The Phillies have the highest RS/RA differential in the NL (by a factor of 2x!), and are #3 in MLB. Their hitting/offense is beyond capable.

And before you start in with the fact that they are fortunate to play the Mets close to 15x a year, do note they have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NL (#8 in all of MLB):

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

that was me^^

As good as Halladay/Lee/Hamels are though, I don't know if they're that much better than Hanson/Jurrjens/Lowe or Lincecum/Cain/Vogelsong or Grienke/Marcum/Gallardo.

*sees that Halladay's on pace for 9 WAR this season*
*head explodes*

short serieses, guys

shasta, regardless of differential, the phillies have scored the 8th most runs in the national league. they are not an unbeatable team like some in this thread have claimed. (that would be the red sox)

which isn't to say either that the phillies aren't the favorites, but they could easily lose in the first round even!

last year they had the best differential by over 20 runs btw

overall i think the NL is really close. i think any of the 4 playoff teams have a very good chance of making it to the world series.

but no one is gonna beat the red sox

Reds' charge foiled by The Awful Mets

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

can i change my vote

Just heard about the Rasmus trade. I'll have to look into it more, but any gut reactions?

they got better this year, prob a stupid trade in the long run, but prob the best they could've done if they wanted to trade him before the deadline

i was reading the comments on viva el birdos... ppl were not pleased. they better make good on the picks they'll get once jackson & dotel leave, too

on the bright side for the cards, rickie weeks got hurt tonight & the reds just got swept by the mets

one more game tomorrow in mets/reds series

AND THE BUCS GOT JOBBED you meant to say

cards got pretty much fleeced, was just counting down the days until larussa made a terrible deal for rasmus

god, this rickie weeks thing sucks

brewers got $1 for wil nieves, not even making that up
kinda think the braves got ripped off on that one

well this week's series is certainly important as it's essentially a two-team race now, and both teams have fairly easy schedules from here on out

why did i pick the reds

it pains me to say it, but i think the brewers will probably take the division pretty handily, regardless of what happens this week. both teams have been playing well recently (brewers have taken 11 of their last 12, although 9 of those wins came against the astros and cubs, while the cardinals have gone 7-3), but cardinals have just looked AWFUL, even when they manage to win. the cards' bullpen is improved, and Furcal is a big improvement over Theriot, but it's too late, too little. and the stupidity of losing Rasmus has been magnified by Jon Jay regressing hard over the last few weeks. still, when Pujols, Holliday and Berkman are firing on all cylinders and the SP is decent, they're hard to beat.

yeah, I wouldn't want those guys to fire on all cylinders. the reason why the Brewers have been so good vs. the Cards lately is because they know how to pitch to Pujols. despite this they've been horrible on the road and if I'm St. Louis I'm thinking "sweep"