The Cy Young award anticipation thread 2007

Wins - AL

 1.	C. Sabathia CLE	14 

 2.	J. Lackey LAA	14 

 3.	J. Beckett BOS	14 
Wins - NL

 1.	C. Zambrano CHC	14 

 2.	B. Penny LAD	13 

 3.	N. Lowry SF	12

I think if Haren continues at this pace, he'll probably win it (and deserve it.) 13-3 and a 2.50 ERA are very impressive to most Cy voters.

A lot of voters are going to pay an inordinate amount of attention to Santana's abnormal number of losses.

Today: Haren and one of Peavy/Young.

Dan Haren has 22 quality starts, the most in baseball. Then Penny (20), and then Peavy/Bedard/Hudson/Carmona with 18. Chris Young and Zambrano and others are tied for 21st with 14.

In terms of opponents' OPS, Peavy and Young are at the top. Then there's a big gap, followed by Haren, Hudson, Penny and Tim Linceceum.

I don't have access to BP stuff, but I think it's hard to argue against Haren as the obvious front-runner in the AL. The NL seems up for grabs between Peavy, Young, Penny and Hudson. Young would pretty much have to completely dominate the second half to have a chance against those three guys, I think, and being injured right now doesn't help his cause.

is young still on the DL? i can't see it not being peavy if that's the case.

bedard would be a cool dark horse guy in the NL

poly, http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204030

tim hudson 4th in zloop!

Huh, look at the big gap between Haren's ERA and RA. Interesting.

Young is still on the DL but supposedly he'll make his next start. Oblique injuries can be tough to come back from, though.

Don't discount the crazy ramblings of Zambrano, he's driven!

"I believe this year, I can win the Cy Young," Zambrano said, "and besides that, we will win the World Series. I guarantee that. I have faith in that."

"Any time I can do anything -- hitting, running the bases, kicking the ball -- I've got to use my God-given ability," Zambrano said.

Peavy has thrown about 30 innings more than Young.

If Santana gets more wins than Haren, I don't think the other numbers will matter.

In terms of opponents' OPS, Peavy and Young are at the top. Then there's a big gap, followed by Haren, Hudson, Penny and Tim Linceceum.

Only one of these guys is in the AL, if that matters much (and it should).

Also if that OPS isn't park-adjusted it's not really fair anyway, as the Qualcomm (or whatever it's called now) is murder offense.

Yeah, but Peavy's numbers still stand up pretty well in terms of VORP.

If Santana gets more wins than Haren, I don't think the other numbers will matter.

Regardless of whether or not he should win the Cy, I don't see Santana actually winning if he has like 10+ losses.

Yeah, Peavy still leads NL in VORP w/ its park adjustment.

Santana is 11-9; if he finished at 20-13 and had most of his usual numbers, he might win it.

For now, the James/Neyer Cy Predictor has Haren and Penny with narrow leads over Lackey and Peavy. Very Californy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy

If Zambrano can keep it up and leads the Cubs into the playoffs, I think he will win in the NL. I've never seen the number, but I wonder what his ERA has been in this run by the Cubs. Zambrano's ERA is down around 3.4, so considering his first six weeks were not that hot, I bet he is probably well under 3 during this hot streak. I just don't see those east coast voters going for Penny or Peavey if the Cubs are in the race.

What if the Padres are still in the race? I mean, they're currently in the lead for the wild card.

It's as if people think the NL West is triple-A or something.

Zambrano hasn't been the best pitcher in the NL but he seems to me like a strong candidate: high profile, kicks the shit out of catchers, just wins, etc.

Month   ERA

------------

Apr     5.77 

May     4.72

*BARRETT PUNCH-OUT*

Jun     2.53

Jul     1.38

"It's as if people think the NL West is triple-A or something."

I figure it is more that people see and follow the Cubs a whole lot more than the Padres, which is a club that has a low profile even when they are winning. Heck, the NL West has won 6 of the last 8 NL Cy Youngs, four of which being won by the Unit.

How much of a stat lift do you think that Peavey and Young have gotten playing in that stadium in San Diego? It seems to be a very kind pitchers park.

Peavy:
Home ERA: 3.10
Away : 0.98

Young:
Home ERA: 0.73
Away: 3.02

Gaudy splits for both, although I was surprised that Peavy's been so good on the road. The park obviously helps them, but give either guy 30 starts on the road and you've still got a worthy Cy Young candidate.

uh, are Peavy's splits reversed there?

Nope. He's actually 0.89 on the road. Damn.

well, it seems possible that Petco doesn't help him, then.

It also seems possible that Peavy is the heavy favorite, no?

He certainly has a better likelihood of continuing to pitch well than Penny (bad second-half guy) or Young (no track record, injury). Zambrano and Hudson seem to me the most likely to put up a huge second half out of the four other guys to compete with Peavy down the stretch. Zambrano would have to seriously close that ERA gap, though, unless he has a huge lead in wins.

Peavy's to lose IMO.

Yeah I'd agree.

On the other hand, if you had one game to win and your life depended on it, would you pick Peavy over Zambrano? I'm not so sure I would.

I think I would take Peavy. At any rate, the award is for the entire season and for that reason I wouldn't think Zambrano has a chance based on consistency. I don't know how much consistency plays into the Cy Young mind you, but I imagine you'd have to have a very consistent year to win out over all the other contenders.

I'm not even positive who won it last year outta Webb-Carpenter-Oswalt

"On the other hand, if you had one game to win and your life depended on it, would you pick Peavy over Zambrano? I'm not so sure I would."

Definitely. Control counts for a lot and Peavy SO rate is as good as Zambrano's is.

Better actually!

Webb won (I had to check.)

Lackey grabs Cy Predictor lead from Haren.

Webb is looking pretty nice right about now...

well, it seems possible that Petco doesn't help him, then.

-- Dr Morbius, Wednesday, August 8, 2007 7:37 AM (5 days ago)

You and fellow SABR-member AlexSF both have misinformation about PetCo (w/r/t Linebrink's stats which show that he's a much better road pitcher). Is this a correlation?

Don't look now, but Roy-O has 13 wins. He has won 8-of-9 decisions and 5 in a row.

Not saying he deserves the Cy Young, but he might be in the mix before it's all over.

(w/r/t Linebrink's stats which show that he's a much better road pitcher).

Well, some years he's been better at home, and some years he's been better on the road. It isn't so cut and dried, I don't think. But he has had some unusually good road years mixed in there.

polyp,

you need to look at the post i made a week or two ago which show that mr. linebrink is a much better road pitcher than home pitcher. i guess you missed that but split stats are pretty easy to come by dude.

Oh, you're right that it's much more obvious when you factor in WHIP and batting average against. I was only looking at ERA, which of course is somewhat worthless for relievers. His ERAs are pretty close H/R, all things considered.

"You and fellow SABR-member AlexSF both have misinformation about PetCo (w/r/t Linebrink's stats which show that he's a much better road pitcher). Is this a correlation?"

It's an aberration due to one of two bad games. Anyone concluding that PetCo's park effects are overrated based on a couple of innings is a chump.

ORLY LOOK AT HIS CAREER HOME/ROAD SPLITS CHUMP:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6455/splits;_ylt=AraHrujKxVl9hX6zmsmxuHuFCLcF?year=career&type=Pitching

c/p

What do career home/road splits have to do with park factors at PETCO? His aberrant 2005 aside (0.66 ERA on the road in 40 innings which is obviously unsustainably and abnormally great), Linebrink has clearly pitched better at PETCO than he has on the road.

omg what are you talking about!?!?!?!?!?!? are you in a different dimension?

CAREER SPLITS
PETCO: 2.63 ERA 1.20 WHIP .240 BAA
ROAD: 2.95 ERA 1.11 WHIP .216 BAA

" Linebrink has clearly pitched better at PETCO than he has on the road" = bull-caca nonsense from your chumpy mouth!

Shasta did you fail reading comprehension in addition to basic statistics?

I mean the obvious answer here is the it's pretty hard to determine anything definitive looking at what basically amounts to a little over 100 innings over the course of four years, but it's pretty clear that 1) PETCO reduces the number of HRs and 2) reduces the number of hits BECAUSE every single statistical measurement indicates that. If certain people think that SOMEHOW Scott Linebrink has magic powers (bad magic powers) and that these his extremely advantageous home ballpark doesn't AFFECT HIM AT ALL then so be it.

The original theory was not just Linebrink but Peavy too. I checked Hoffman but he's had a slight advantage at PetCo, still nothing significant enough to be decisively clear.

Thing is: The "park factor" doesn't seem to have a tremendous influence on SD's best pitchers. That's all I'm saying.

Runs HR H 2B 3B BB Rank
2007 0.852 0.924 0.931 0.865 1.261 0.983 29
2006 0.860 0.982 0.905 0.767 1.086 1.012 30
2005 0.803 0.750 0.903 0.832 1.331 0.945 30
2004 0.837 0.691 0.895 0.895 1.519 1.046 29

Zambrano must have been checking this thread out, as true to fashion as soon as he looks fantastic, he will swing back and have some really cruddy starts.

Bedard is just a hair behind Haren for the AL VORP lead, but of course no-decisions like yesterday aren't going to help him with Cy voters.

Brandon Webb's scoreless inning streak just reached 34 innings.

And Chris Young hit another home run! SERIOUSLY STOP BATTING HIM FIRST GUYS!

just for a little fun:

Pitchers With Most Consecutive

Scoreless innings, One Season
Year   Streak              Pitcher, Team                Total Inn.
1988   Aug. 30-Sept. 28    Orel Hershiser, Dodgers            59.0

1968   May 14-June 8       Don Drysdale, Dodgers              58.2

1913   Apr. 10-May 14      Walter Johnson, Senators           55.2

1910   Sept. 5-Sept. 25    Jack Coombs, A's                   53.0

1968   June 2-June 26      Bob Gibson, Cardinals              47.0

1933   July 13-Aug. 1      Carl Hubbell, Giants               45.1

1950   Aug. 16-Sept. 13    Sal Maglie, Giants                 45.0

1904   Sept. 12-Sept. 30   Doc White, White Sox               45.0

1904   Apr. 25-May 17      Cy Young, Red Sox                  45.0

1908   Sept. 17-0ct. 3     Ecl Reulbach, Cubs                 44.0

1905   Aug. 22-Sept. 5     Rube Waddell, A's                  43.2

1914   May 1-May 26        Rube Foster, Red Sox               42.0

1902   June 26-July 16     Jack Chesbro, Pirates              41.0

1911   Sept. 7-Sept. 24    Grover Alexander, Phillies         41.0

1917   Sept. 13-0ct. 4     Art Nehf, Braves                   41.0

1968   Apr. 28-May 17      Luis Tiant, Indians                41.0

1918   May 7-May 26        Walter Johnson, Senators           40.0

1967   Aug. 28-Sept 10     Gaylord Perry, Giants              40.0

1972   Aug. 19-Sept. 8     Luis Tiant, Red Sox                40.0

Brandon Webb is now a member of the above list.

What's the record for consecutive complete game shutouts?

Drysdale had 6 I guess?

Webb is fucking sickkkkkk. if RJ wasn't gimped up then you'd think they actually earned that record~

can someone explain something abt PETCO to me - why is the number of hits lower there, as alex mentioned above? it seems like there should be more hits than at other parks cuz there's practically an extra gap, all that space to make niggas run around in.

bedard!

w/ several starts to spare, monsieur erik has tied the franchise record for Ks set by mike mussina (218).

bedard's also, in a three way toe for first w/ escobar and haren for win shares in the al.

When does Escobar get into this convo? era under 3. Going for win 15 today.

Joe Sheehan had him on the shortlist in his column the other day.

can someone explain something abt PETCO to me - why is the number of hits lower there, as alex mentioned above? it seems like there should be more hits than at other parks cuz there's practically an extra gap, all that space to make niggas run around in.

-- cankles, Saturday, August 18, 2007 4:53 AM (1 week ago) Bookmark Link

hay guys wuts goin on wit dis

I got no clue and always wondered about it myself.

Marine layer knocking balls down?

"it seems like there should be more hits than at other parks cuz there's practically an extra gap, all that space to make niggas run around in."

Yeah there is an increase in triples, but I think the depth of the outfield (and air/wind/something which causes fly balls to get caught up as well) depresses the home runs and creates more fly outs and that's what decreases the number of hits/runs/etc. That's just an assumption, but that's the general reason for parks being pitcher friendly. Well that and expansive foul territory, but that's less common in recently constructed ballparks.

when i started watching more games the past coupla years it seemed really intuitive to me that more parks should be like that, i think it would get more casual pps into baseball. like, home runs are context dependent, they're boring as shit if you're just seeing clips or whatever. whereas i could watch web gem highlights all day. high scoring is cool and all too but i think this would be better imo~

"it seems like there should be more hits than at other parks cuz there's practically an extra gap, all that space to make niggas run around in."

Marquis Grissom (first player to ever hit a HR there) said that it would take 4 outfielders to ostensibly cover all the OF ground there. or maybe he was just an old dude... you make the call.

Peavy with another great outting - 1 ER & 11 K through 7

It's definitely his to lose.

The AL Cy Predictor now has Escobar in the lead by a hair over Beckett... and Putz.

Webb tagged for 6 ER and the loss against San Diego, chances fade a bit.

Brad Penny has allowed 4 through 1 2/3 to the impressive murderer's row that is D Jimenez, R Fick, J Flores (whoever that is), S Hill, and N Logan.

Peavy went 7 innings, no runs, 2 hits, 9k's tonight to pick up his 16th win, and dropping his era to a league leading 2.10. It's his to lose at this point.

Sabathia takes over lead in VORP and the James Cy Predictor.

Peavy got WORKED yesterday. So much for three days rest as a good idea.

why on earth was he pitching??

bcz it was against their main rival?

Jake Peavy IS Gene Mauch

so, Sabathia-Beckett-Johan race?

If the Indians got 1/10 the hype of the Red Sox or Yankees, Sabathia would be the clear front-runner now. The Indians are running with the division but nobody seems to care, so if Beckett wins 20, then he might have it sewn up.

I think it's CC vs. Beckett and the VORP/WARP3 difference there is pretty neglible so it could go either way. I can't see Johan taking it playing on a team in a distant third place and with a record of 15+-11+, rightly or wrongly.

Sabathia

Needsabathia

what about my mans bedard??? does sitting out the rest of the season essentially DQ him?

yes

CC has been better in the second half than Beckett. I'd vote for Sabathia.

Down the line but...they deserve some props even though they are not Cy Young canidates.

Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates has been totally filthy the few times I have seen him pitch. That guy isrough on left handed hitters.

Aaron Harang has left the game with the lead not to get the win six times this year. If the Reds had Arizona's bullpen they would be sailing into the playoffs and Harang would probably be about at 20 wins.

The good ole' (ex & current) Braves trio have all had solid seasons. Pretty impressive for a three guys whose age is over 120 years old.

Fausto Carmona is also pretty tough. The thing that has impressed me about Carmona is that he has been an escape artist in getting himself out of some tough jams. One of the first games I saw the guy throw he loaded the bases against the Red Sox with no one out facing like Ortiz, Manny and maybe Mike Lowell and got out giving out no runs.

Another guy that is really tough and I think could come up huge in the post season for the Indians is Rafael Bettencort. That guy is totally nasty and will be the guy to shut down some big rally in the 7th or 8th during October.

Santana should be out of contention by now.

Verlander finished seventh in voting last year and should be around there this year -- higher K/9, lower WHIP, better W-L.

Sutcliffe sez: give it to Halladay.

Beckett winning 20 and the Red Sox winning their division are essentially sure things now, and the combination of the two = Cy Young for Beckett no matter what anybody else does.

even tho the Indians are leading their division?

I just feel like arguing with you today.

Jake Peavy had another very nice game.

I think the last two weeks will determine who wins the AL Cy.

Thermo -- yeah, but as I said upthread, a lot of people don't give a crap about the Indians (or about anything that doesn't involve Boston vs NY). Beckett's accomplishments get noticed a lot more than Sabathia's. This has nothing to do with who is more deserving of the award, mind you.

Sabathia or Escobar has a shot if Beckett doesn't win again, otherwise no.

Would've kinda blown if Wang had won one more game last year, then.

Nah, there was a huge difference between Santana and Wang in the other conventional stats (nearly a run in ERA, obviously a massive difference in K's) so Johan still would have won easily. The win difference needs to be a lot larger than that for the voters to screw it up (i.e. 2005).

does a Sabathia 19th win tonight take it?

I think Sabathia will win, mostly because of his performances against Santana. Also I think people like him more than they do Beckett.