2011 awards thread

Ellsbury and Berkman are Comeback Players of the Year, and Neyer has some qualified quibbles:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/10/13/2487791/comeback-player-of-the-year-jacoby-ellsbury-lance-berkman

For the first time, the Gold Glove awards will be televised. It’s tomorrow night (November 1) at 7 p.m. PST on ESPN2.

full list here:

http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/10/31/espn2-to-televise-first-ever-rawlings-gold-glove-awards-show/

hard to believe the captain isn't among the finalists

oh boy, let's televise the most discredited award...

The Fielding Bible winners (Pujols, Upton not even nominated for GGs):

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

nice to see wieters get well-deserved credit.

so, Gloves winners:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7180262/los-angeles-dodgers-boston-red-sox-trios-lead-gold-glove-winners

And yes, Gardner was robbed.

i like their graphic:
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2011/0622/mlb_e_garderdia_576.jpg

fielding bible awards vs. gold glove is pretty stark. actually, the difference b/w ellsbury and austin jackson really stands out.

Silver Sluggers televised on MLBN tonight, lol. Can't you just find those by looking at triple crown stats?

The Silver Slugger Award winners:

National League

Outfield
Matt Kemp, Dodgers
Ryan Braun, Brewers
Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

First Base
Prince Fielder, Brewers

Second Base
Brandon Phillips, Reds

Third Base
Aramis Ramirez, Cubs

Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies

Catcher
Brian McCann, Braves

Pitcher
Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks

******************

American League

Outfield
Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
Curtis Granderson, Yankees

First Base
Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

Second Base
Robinson Cano, Yankees

Third Base
Adrian Beltre, Rangers

Shortstop
Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians

Catcher
Alex Avila, Tigers

Designated Hitter
David Ortiz, Red Sox

Hudson taking over zambranos death grip on the pitchers silver slugger

i always forget how drawn out baseball awards are

so ROY: who really cares?

eric hosmer cares

*holding out hope that klaws early season claim that brad emaus might garner some roy consideration pans out*

I did vote in the Internet BAs, but damned if I can remember who for.

kimbrel edges freeman in the nl

which al closer is going to win roy? this is getting boring.

oh wait hellickson won? har har. count the wins bitch!

kimbrel edges freeman in the nl

this makes it sound like it was close... Kimbrel won unanimously!

Nov. 14: AL and NL Rookies of the Year awarded.

Nov. 15: AL Cy Young Award awarded.

Nov. 16: AL and NL Managers of the Year awarded.

Nov. 17: NL Cy Young Award awarded.

Nov. 21: AL Most Valuable Player awarded.

Nov. 22: NL Most Valuable Player awarded.

that is for me to keep track, congrats to Kimbrel and Hellickson on today's awards.

Verlander, unanimous.

MLBTR:

"Also receiving votes: Jered Weaver, James Shields, C.C. Sabathia, Jose Valverde, C.J. Wilson, Dan Haren, Mariano Rivera, Josh Beckett, Ricky Romero, and David Robertson. Yes, one writer considered Robertson the fifth-best pitcher in the American League this year."

Probably writes for the Newark Star Ledger

Because anyone who writes for the NYP thinks teh ate is joba's rightful place and anyone else there is fraudulent

when are ilxor awards handed out? when does that thread come out?

Neyer considers luck in the Verlander/Sabathia equation:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/15/2564157/justin-verlander-al-cy-young-award-voting

I was thinking along those lines when I argued that Halladay might have deserved the '08 and '09 Cy Young (I'm fairly convinced he should have won over Lee in '08). Strength of opposition should matter when it comes to awards, but I'm not sure as to what degree.

I voted for Halladay this year in the IBAs, btw

I probably made this point earlier, but while I can definitely see factoring in BABIP into decisions like "Is this guy worth a huge contract?"--I'm most definitely want to know that--I can't see factoring it into awards voting. A hit is a hit is a hit. I'm sure many batting crowns have been won by guys who had a greater-than-normal number of bloop hits and other breaks.

I don't think Neyer is arguing.

Verlander's BABIP was so low because he had awesome infielders and corner outfielders behind him.

Gibson and Maddon win MOYs easily, Roenicke and Leyland place.

"I can't see factoring it into awards voting."

I think it's a useful tiebreaker.

Seriously, though -- Verlander had one decent defender behind him on a regular basis. If you're going to talk about which pitcher faced better hitters, you should also talk about which pitcher had a better defense (unless, of course, there's a specific point you are trying to support).

Same with quality of the defense behind the pitcher.

As a tiebreaker in a near dead heat, sure--although there are other tiebreakers (like quality of defenders) I'd use first. I don't see Verlander and Sabathia as being in a dead heat, though. (This is not in reference to Neyer--I still haven't had a chance to read his piece.)

"I don't see Verlander and Sabathia as being in a dead heat, though."

Me neither.

I've been talking about adjusting WAR numbers on strength of opposition for years. Doubt it would move the needle much but could find some weird quirky outlier players. I guess it would take a lot of data crunching to renormalize every at bat based on pitcher or hitter faced and iterate on their respective values, but I wouldn't be surprised if a club is already doing it.

Still, Sabathia in contention is a pretty big challops.

"I don't see Verlander and Sabathia as being in a dead heat, though."

But Neyer's point is that they (possibly) only appear to be far apart because of luck and that they really are in a near dead heat but some of their numbers don't reflect it.

If two pitchers appeared to be equal and you wanted to use BABIP + defense + opposing batters as a "tiebreaker", and it turned out that Pitcher A had all the luck/great defense on his side and Pitcher B didn't, then this info is more than just settling a tiebreak -- you'd be concluding that Pitcher B was a far better player.

Not trying to be obstinate or old-fashioned, but I just can't get my head around this. As a predictive stat, BABIP seems to me to be valuable knowledge; as a useful metric of what's already happened, much less so.

Verlander had an atypically low BABIP, somewhere around .235. What does this mean in concrete terms?

a) His defense was consistently getting to baseballs that other defenses weren't. If so, I'd put that under the general umbrella of "much better defense," and if that were clearly the case, I'd give that some weight. I don't know much about the Tigers; Andy K does, and he indicates that wasn't the case.

b) He faced a season's worth of batters hitting in bad luck. I guess that could happen, game after game of people hitting the ball right at somebody. It seems unlikely over the course of 35 starts, but I guess it's possible. Still seems like a rather ephemeral yardstick by which to determine awards.

c) They were hitting the ball right at people because Verlander's coaches were very good at positioning defenders. If that were the case, I wouldn't want to punish Verlander and/or reward Sabathia for the quality of their coaches.

My guess is it's a combination of all three--some timely defense, some bad luck at the hitters' end, and some good coaching. A perfect storm, just like most records are set under optimal conditions. Or something like the Tigers' 35-5 start in 1984; I bet if you went through the games, you'd find that almost every important break went their way. That's sports; the games were won regardless, and Verlander's outs were outs.

Tigers and the Yankees had pretty much the same Defensive Efficiency so I don't think there is much to that and c) would be reflected in it and I don't think it's likely a major factor either way.

"It seems unlikely over the course of 35 starts, but I guess it's possible."

It's actually very possible and it happens every year.

It happens every year that certain pitchers face batters the whole season who are hitting in bad luck? Is there any kind of documentation on this?

you guys know i'm totally gay for Halladay - but i think Kershaw deserves the Cy.

I have an easier time understanding the case for Halladay than I do for Sabathia, but I'd probably give a close vote to Kershaw. I haven't compared them closely enough to say for sure. The one thing that I think is really impressive about Kershaw's season--besides the obvious, the Triple Crown--is all those head-to-head wins over Lincecum (4?). But I know Kershaw has a park advantage.

"It happens every year that certain pitchers face batters the whole season who are hitting in bad luck? Is there any kind of documentation on this?"

Every year there are pitchers whose BABIP widely fluctuates from their previous levels, yes. I think attributing a fair bit of that fluctuation to luck is pretty accepted at this point.

In case you were wondering Detroit's Defensive Efficiency was 18th in the league in 2010 and 2011 yet somehow Verlander's BABIP went from .286 to .236.

I guess this will resolve itself a few years down the road--either BABIP will become part of the equation when determining Cy Young suitability, or it won't. To me, it seems rather speculative. "We know you did what you were supposed to do better than anyone in the league--get batters out and prevent runs--but year-to-year fluctuations suggest to us that you didn't get batters out in the right way, or that you would appear to have benefitted from a lengthy run of divine intervention." (I don't think I'm arguing with you, Alex--you've already said you would have voted for Verlander yourself. I'm not really sure who I'm arguing with here.)

To the NL... C Kahrl takes pro-Halladay argument:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hot?id=7242702

Kahrl's argument are unsurprisingly a lot more persuasive than Kurjerkland.

Kershaw gets it.

turns out triple crown numbers spank WAR according to the bbwaa. 27 first place votes.

I love Kershaw. =)

Halladay definitely had a claim.. pitching in Philly has to be a nightmare.

lol wtf

http://c0014049.r32.cf1.rackcdn.com/x2_95bad81

dude is 12 years old

that's Kershaw?! is he wearing his dad's suit or something?

hey he only makes 500k a year.. money doesnt buy what it used to..

that cant be him

thought it was a lost Busey.

I don't think anyone expected WAr to carry the day.

would have been down w/halladay or kershaw. i bet kimbrel finishes ahead of at least one of these dudes in the mvp balloting btw.

I think the NL vote was a good one--Kershaw wins convincingly, with acknowledgement that there were cases to be made for Halladay and Lee. Baseball Reference hasn't updated their Awards Share page yet, but Halladay moves into eighth on the Cy Young list (3.5 share), just a notch behind Palmer for seventh. If he were to have a great year next year, he could jump to fourth. Maddux, currently third, is catchable; Johnson (second) and Clemens (first), probably not.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

kershaw has kind of a weird body iirc

or he has a little skull or w/e

Just read that Christina Kahrl defense of Halladay, and this jumped out at me: "But what about all those strikeouts? Yes, they're great, they're exciting and they're handy for drawing glowing inferences about a player's future. But that's about the future, and what Halladay and Kershaw did is in the past." It you substitute "BABIP" for "all those strikeouts," that's more or less the argument I've been making for Verlander over Sabathia. (Except for the exciting part--not sure how many people get excited by BABIP.)