2012 Hall of Fame elections

Ron Santo and Gil Hodges, long a pair of Major League Baseball's most disputable candidates for the National Baseball Hall of Fame, are back on a Veterans' Committee ballot representing the Golden Era of the sport from 1947-72, it was announced on Thursday. . . .

The ten candidates are Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Allie Reynolds, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant, Buzzie Bavasi and Charlie Finley.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111103&content_id=25882756&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

oh, that election is this Dec. 4, but close enough.

For the very unscientific reasons that he was such a character and so much fun to watch, I'd love to see Tiant get in. Thinking about him in the '75 Series immediately gets me all nostalgic for that era. (Not that his case is negligible by the numbers.)

Some very useful stuff on Bagwell's minor-league career here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19626/denying-jeff-bagwell-the-hall-is-a-travesty

Neyer wonders re Bagwell when the generation-wide logjam is gonna end:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/3/2679397/jeff-bagwell-hall-of-fame-steroids-election

Posnanski is so good:

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2012/01/03/the-future-and-past-of-the-hall-of-fame/?sct=hp_t13_a4&eref=sihp

Heyman's pro-Morris argument (as he sat between Jaffe and Sheehan during a Clubhouse Confidential segment) might be the gold standard for aggravating/hilarious baseball analysis.

He was the ace OVER Dan Petry!
He had 14 OPENING DAY STARTS!
He WAS NOT average!
I talked to players who said he was special!

After being told that Morris' career ERA was one one-hundredth below the league average during era, that his reputation might be overstated: "No, I don't believe that... I do believe he pitched to the score. I know there's some research that says otherwise."

Heyman also said that Morris was the ace over Blyleven. The two never played on the same team.

it takes a pretty gritty pitcher to earn #1 starter status year after year over the likes of mike wilcox and post-fastball frank tanana (even if most years your ERA+ wasn't close to the best on the staff.)

listening to Heyman on Morris :: listening to Chris Matthews on JFK

From the reading I've been doing on four or five sites, I'll guess that Larkin makes it with room to spare (85%+), and that McGriff bounces back a bit (which won't help him by the time you get to next year). We'll find out Monday.

this is baseball think factory's latest numbers from their ballot collector page.

Friday, December 30, 2011

2012 Hall Of Fame Ballot Collecting Gizmo

UPDATE~~~ 102 Full Ballots.

90.2 - B. Larkin
59.8 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
58.8 - T. Raines
57.9 - Bagwell
45.1 - Trammell
43.1 - Lee Smith
36.3 - E. Martinez
23.5 - F. McGriff
19.6 - L. Walker
15.7 - McGwire
12.7 - D. Murphy
9.8 - Mattingly
7.8 - R. Palmiero
2.9 - Bernie Williams !
2.0 - J. Gonzalez
1.0 - V. Castilla
1.0 - P. Rose (write-in)

previously:

81 Full Ballots.

92.6 - Larkin
63.0 - Jack (The Jack) Morris
61.7 - T. Raines
58.0 - Bagwell
44.4 - Trammell
43.2 - Lee Smith
39.5 - E. Martinez
22.2 - L. Walker
21.0 - McGriff
18.5 - McGwire
13.6 - D. Murphy
11.1 - Mattingly
9.9 - R. Palmiero
2.5 - J. Gonzalez
2.5 - Bernie Williams !
1.2 - V. Castilla
1.2 - P. Rose (write-in)

FYI:

jack morris appeared on 53.5% of the ballots last year.
raines: 37.5
bagwell: 41.7
trammell: 24.3
smith: 41.3
martinez: 32.9
walker: 20.3
mcgriff: 17.9
mcgwire: 19.8
murphy: 12.6
mattingly: 13.6
palmeiro: 11.0
gonzalez: 5.2

Bernie's really getting buried--a bit surprised with such a soft ballot. At one time, I think the perception was that there was a big Yankees bias in awards voting. I remember James once wrote something showing how they'd been significantly under-represented in MVP and Cy Young voting when compared to the number of titles won. (I think I have that right--maybe it was a New York bias in general that he was countering.)

it looks like tim raines is definitely going to make it, imo.

but who knows, really. and this is only 20% or so of the ballots.

Do you mean this time? I don't know...if he's at 61.7% a fifth of the way through, he'll have to draw almost 80% the rest of the way.

nah i mean eventually...

would love to see walker make it, but looks like he's got a long way to go.

i have a hard time thinking about Walker as a HOF'er. i looked at his career splits, and away from Colorado he's nothing even close to special. his number on their face are great - probably HOF numbers. but once you start looking at the park factor things start to crumble pretty fast.

am more rooting for Martinez's % to go up.

i understand that but i feel like sometimes playing in coors fucks w/how guys play on the road. like walker wasn't a .420 hitter season-round, but he wasn't as bad as he played elsewhere.

case in pt: galarraga having those outstanding seasons after he left colorado, despite having weak road stats during his time there, not sure what it would take to get a rockies player in the hall tbh.

weird thing is, some seasons those guys are amazing on the road (walker in '97) and other years their road numbers are nowhere near the home numbers (walker in '95.)

I'm rooting for Edgar to get in too, at some point. Somebody a few weeks ago wrote that if he'd been a lousy third baseman instead of a great DH, he'd stroll in.

heh - that's probably true!

and 1997 was an epic outlier for Walker. you look at every year he was a (healthy) Rocky and the difference in OPS is usually between 100-300 points!!!

Posada? I'd have to take a longer look--seems like a weak case at first glance, but a case nonetheless.

definitely not. but i'm sure we'll be hearing about him either way.

Jorge Posada had a nice career but I would have rather had Javy Lopez by comparison. I think Ted Simmons is probably the best catcher 'not' in the hall of fame not counting Ivan Rodriquez (who I guess still might play next year- haven't heard so far) and Piazza.

Lance Parrish was also pretty good, not a hall of famer but definitly quite good. You can file Posada and Lopez in that hall of very good along side guys like Parrish, Bill Freehan, Terry Steinbach and Tim McCarver (yeah annoying, but he was a good player for a while).

did you put Steinbach's name in there to see if we're paying attention?

This isn't current thru 2011, I don't think, but Posada blows past Javy Lopez on career value. He's a HOFer to me, just had a long fade.

http://bb_catchers.tripod.com/catchers/winshares-career.htm

http://www.futilityinfielder.com/wordpress/2012/01/the-ballot-battle.shtml

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIFs8M9pg0I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0mvgI0F1YU

Jaffe is doing a BP chat shortly

facts and logic don't play well w/heyman w/r/t morris.

these youtube clips are designed to enrage me, aren't they?

Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special: Via JAWS, I have five guys: Raines, Bagwell, Larkin, Edgar, and Smith. If I'm going with my heart instead of my system, I'd tack on Bernie and Trammell, too, but I make a point of playing my system first.

seriously, jack morris' mustache is going to be what gets him in.

more JJ:

Kevin Brown, David Cone, Dwight Gooden and Orel Hershiser all had disconcertingly short stays on the ballot. I do think all of them will have at least some proponents in a VC-like panel situation, particularly because their postseason accomplishments will get closer looks.

Gooden's actually the strongest of those candidates. In fact - holy smokes, I just realized this - he's above the standard at 52.1/38.1/45.1, because he had 16.7 WARP through his first two seasons.

Walker had a big home/road split but a) it's not so unusual for guys who played in hitters parks (e.g. anyone who was with the Red Sox in their prime -- check Wade Boggs and Jim Rice's H/R splits), b) OPS+ takes park effects into account, and Walker's 140 OPS+ is pretty ridic. The longevity factor counts against him more than the Coors factor IMO.

I liked it when they used to make the announcement early in the morning. I've been checking CNN/SI all day.

It's 3 PM EST, right?

yes (baseball Oscars for jaymc)

I pay attention to MVP/Cy Young announcements, too.

Thanks.

I was trying to find the Goodfellas clip where Jimmy, Henry, and Tommy are in the back of the bar celebrating the fact that Tommy's just been made. I know they let inductees know via a staged phone call, but I think they should send Willie Mays and Tom Seaver right to your house to do it Goodfellas style.

or in the case of Jack Morris - the other thing they did to Tommy Goodfellas style.

are any of us guessing anything but Larkin, or nobody? Morris if the dinosaurs have a victory, but I doubt it.

Yeah, I do think Larkin will make it, but that's it.

larkin alone

hopefully - i fear Morris tho.

let's just take a minute

looking forward to next years class

Excellent idea:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/9/2693010/the-hall-of-fame-an-immodest-proposal

If you don't think steroids are an issue--much less suspected steroid use--than it's superfluous. But the fact is, there are lot of fence-sitters like myself. Neyer's idea would at least put the issue to rest when it comes to people like Bagwell, Thome, I-Rod, etc. (Largely, anyway--I'm sure there'd still be holdouts.) I'd of course vote for all of them without hesitation if there was that out.

heh - i liked this bit that piece linked to: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/10/2696110/awful-writer-turns-in-awful-hall-of-fame-ballot

"Hitting way up high makes you a cheater, too,"

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman
i love the folks who never saw jack morris pitch who are certain he isnt hall of famer bec their stat guru said so

It does not take a fucking stat guru to see that only two other pitchers "lost" more games '80-'89 than Jack "Best Pitcher of the '80s Because He 'Won' So Many Games" Morris.

As I posted this time last year, I think, Morris obviously pitched to the calendar and/or standings.

(Yeah, the people voting for Morris are now irritating me more than the people not voting for Raines. Sorry.)

Jack's going to squeeze in with 75.1%--he pitches to the score.

I really admire Jaffe and Sheehan for containing their laughter while sharing camera time with Jon "Opening Day Starts" Heyman.

Neyer doesn't think Morris is inevitable:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/10/2696542/jack-morris-hall-of-fame-chances

nice to see he's still butthurt over jim rice

the morris thing wouldn't bug me if some of his acolytes were "big hall" dudes who were also repping for raines and trammell (stark's support of morris doesn't bother me, for example), but some of these idiots are small hall guys who thought blyleven was a weak choice.

Yeah but he has so many votes right now.

I don't recall ANY Morris/Hall chatter while Morris was a Tiger -- not from Detroit sports writers or telecasters, at least. (Watched/listened to most of the games, read sports sections almost every day.) It was all about Whitaker and Trammell: "Wouldn't it be great if they were inducted together?," etc. Not once did I watch Morris and think I was witnessing a potential Hall of Famer (and I was a fanatic kid/homer at the time).

i did not think that watching as a J's fanboy in the 90's either. i also had great difficulty understanding how he got so many fucking wins.

Heyman's "I talked with guys who played with him" is a lol, like he pitched in 1934.

the morris thing wouldn't bug me if some of his acolytes were "big hall" dudes who were also repping for raines and trammell (stark's support of morris doesn't bother me, for example), but some of these idiots are small hall guys who thought blyleven was a weak choice.

― omar little, Tuesday, January 10, 2012 1:38 PM (52 minutes ago) Bookmark

otm

thing about the '80s, when i think of the pitchers who are representative of that decade for me the first guy who comes to mind is dave stieb, or steve rogers for the early '80s. or welch, or hershiser. seriously, morris is getting in because of one game and also his MUSTACHE. i'm not even joking.

I think I mentioned this on another thread, but I chose Morris in the garbage rounds of a fantasy baseball league in 1991 (paid $1 for him) and everyone laughed at me. He was terrible in '89 and '90 for the Tigers and was turning 37 so it's not hard to understand why most people thought he was washed up. Not to mention that the Twins went from worst to first in 1991 and weren't expected to contend, so if Morris was this incredible HOF ace who did nothing but win, why didn't any of the expected contenders try to sign him as a free agent that year?

they didn't understand pitching to the score

nice to see he's still butthurt over jim rice

Yeah, why mention the writers' biggest mistake of the last decade?

it's kind of tragicomedic how fast dwight evans dropped out of sight and how long and desperately people pushed for jim rice. evans had an amazing mustache, too! he should have been voter catnip.

There are no specific guidelines for voting on Hall of Fame candidates who used performance-enhancing drugs. Therefore, individual voters in these instances must create their own standards. In that way, this becomes an essentially American activity.

it's true -- there's nothing more american than making up your own standards as you go along

Which current below-the-radar great pitcher would benefit the most from growing a mustache? Maybe Tim Hudson? Give him another 3-4 good seasons, 50-60 wins to get him into the 240 wins range, and a massive 70's porn star 'stache and he could become a HOF candidate almost overnight.

if mike mussina really was mensa material he'd have grown one, he'd be first ballot 90%+

It's a shame Clay Zavada isn't sustaining an AJ Burnett-like career.

I was jealous of the Jays for having Stieb!

It didn't take a sophisticated understanding of baseball statistics to realize that he was better than Morris.

Jimmy Key would never have had to play second fiddle to Steib if he had one.

Jimmy Key was better than Morris too. He also pitched in a famous (if you live in Toronto or Detroit) season-ending 1-0 game (in 1987). He lost it though. I guess that's why he's not a HOFer.

can someone explain to me why "pitching to the score" isn't a huge negative to these people

"yeah, he was the best pitcher of the 80s, he never tried harder than he had to and didn't understand the value of a multi-run lead"

Yeah, it's like the pitching equivalent of not running out a grounder.

also, clutch players like Jeetz don't try so hard when the chips aint down

When he pitched against the other team's ace he would always win 2-1. Always. He could do that at will. He was also a psychic and knew exactly how many runs his team would score, so would only fall behind 4-1, then slam the door shut, and refuse to leave the mound until he was ahead 5-4. Also big leads are for sissies, great teams (and players) know how to win the close ones.

http://blog.blueclaws.com/wp-content/uploads/jackmorris2.jpg

He does have a pretty impressive Jeff Bridges visage going on there.

looks like a bubble bath goatee

It is pretty cruel that they didn't put Ron Santo into the hall of fame until the year after he died. They made the guy wait year after year after year even on the vets committee and then the guy dies and they elect him in.

The 80s is kind of a weird period as many of the really great players either through injury or lifestyle had short career peak arcs. Morris won the most games, but the guy wasn't Dwight Gooden or Orel Hershiser. Then you had flukey guys like John Tudor and Mike Scott who were around for a while then were really un-hittable for a couple seasons. (Well Scott probably had a nail file helping him out.)

Morris was the pitcher "of the 80s," so I took a look at Cy Young balloting from 1980 through 1989. I took each player's point total from that season and divided by the maximum number of points for a pitcher that season (such that a 1 means a player won the Cy Young, and a .5 means a pitcher accumulated half as many points as the winner). In that spirit, I give you the top 25 pitchers in Cy Young share of the 80s:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15820

Cocaine is a helluva drug xp

In advance of Schilling next year, Mark Simon compared him to Gibson:

Win Pct: Schilling (.597)/Gibson (.591)
Games over .500: Schilling (70)/Gibson (77)
ERA+: Schilling (128)/Gibson (128)
Strikeouts: Schilling (3,116)/Gibson (3,117)
K per 9: Schilling (8.6)/Gibson (7.2)
Starts: Schilling (436)/Gibson (482)
World Series W-L: Schilling (4-1)/Gibson (7-2)
World Series ERA: Schilling (2.06)/Gibson (1.89)
WS Titles: Schilling (3)/Gibson (2)

I know that's selective, but pretty impressive nonetheless.

Opening-day starts would settle this debate.

neither had mustaches, so i dunno.

a preview of next year's idiocies:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/10/2697745/hall-of-fame-2013-craig-biggio

Not 2012 HOF related, but HOF related ...

I was killing time on B-R and came across the 1945 HOF voting:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_1945.shtml

Nobody got elected, but the most interesting thing is that several active players received votes, including Joe DiMaggio, Joe Gordon, Ted Lyons, Johnny Van der Meer, and Van Lingle Mungo (!!)

Obviously these were write-in votes, and the five-year eligibility rule wasn't in use. Does anyone know the story here? Were there people who thought these players wouldn't return after the war was over and that their careers were effectively over?

They explain it right on Baseball Reference:

In the original 1936 Hall of Fame Election all players, including active players, were eligible for selection. From 1937 through 1945 Hall of Fame Election there was no waiting period, but writers were discouraged from voting for active players, though some still did. In 1946 the BBWAA started a one year waiting period. This would last until the 1954 Hall of Fame Election. The 1955 Hall of Fame Election was the first to use the current five year waiting period.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKzobTlF8fM

I didn't know this, though:

If a player dies within the five year span, he is eligible six months after his death provided he meets the above criteria. If an active player dies, he is eligible six months after his death.

I always thought they'd made a special provision for Clemente, but it's right in the rules.

Ah, thanks! I thought the same about Clemente too.

I thought that rule was adopted after Clemente?

Probably was...I realize I didn't actually answer NoTime's question, where he acknowledged the absence of the five-year rule; he was asking more about the mindset of the writers who voted for still-active players. Not sure where you'd ever track down their rationale. Maybe James has something about that in The Politics of Glory. (I did a little reading on Ted Lyons, and he technically did retire in 1942, before coming back for five starts in '46.)