what would your 2007 award ballots look like?

1-10 VORPs?

I made it without looking at VORPs, and they just happen to be the ten leaders in a somewhat different order.

Jeremy Guthrie and Delmon Young both ROY-eligible?

That list looks pretty good, but I'm gonna rank 'em by WARP1 instead.

AL MVP (WARP1)
Alex Rodriguez, NY (10.6)
Curtis Granderson, DET (9.6)
Carlos Pena, TB (9)
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (8.7)
Magglio Ordonez, DET (8.6)
Jorge Posada, NY (8.1)
David Ortiz, BOS (7.3)
Victor Martinez, CLE (7.1)
Grady Sizemore, CLE (6.4)
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA (6)

"Jeremy Guthrie and Delmon Young both ROY-eligible?"

I believe so.

hmmm, is a 1B who hit like Pena really more valuable than a catcher who hit like Posada? Jorge, as you may have seen on BP, has had the fourth-best VORP among catchers since 1959.

(two Piazza seasons and a Javy -- that's right, blew past the best of Bench, Carter, Fisk and Pudge-Rod)

According to WARP he is. Pena's DTs on defense are really good and Posada's are not so great.

Posada's allowed 98 SBs and only caught 31 this season. That's not Jason Kendall, but it is well below average.

still, a mediocre catcher who hits like Piazza (redundancy) is a rare asset.

Actually that's a ridiculous amount SB attempts.

True, but a slick fielding 1B isn't exactly chopped liver either. That's one of the reasons Pujols is so valuable.

Haha actually I just looked at the SB attempts against Piazza in his prime and uh it's not.

Does any site keep track of SB-against and CS-against by pitcher?

Hardball Times has that data.

OOH. THANK YOU.

Posada's allowed 98 SBs and only caught 31 this season.

Let me introduce you to the 2007 San Diego Padres.

hmmm, is a 1B who hit like Pena really more valuable than a catcher who hit like Posada? Jorge, as you may have seen on BP, has had the fourth-best VORP among catchers since 1959.

-- Dr Morbius, Wednesday, September 26, 2007 3:50 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

i think that's why VORP might be a little problematic wrt MVP, i'm not sure that the positional value should mean anything. it's useful for measuring value against other players at that position but mvp is relative to ALL other players. obv posada's had an incredible season and should prob be in the discussion on his own merit.

i'm curious what differentiates granderson so much. obv he's had a really nice season but i guess i am missing something regarding why he is a top ten, top 20 type dude. i know replacement lvl standards for CF are low, but that can't be the entire difference.

NL time!

roughly in order:

wright
holliday
rollins/utley
prince
larry
peavy
ERIC BYRNEZ

my gut feeling rn is that it goes to rollins if they make the playoffs. otherwise who knows.

wait, otherwise = holliday

"i'm curious what differentiates granderson so much."

Well 1) he's had a zillion plate appearances. VORP/WARP are counting stats at their heart so having more opportunities to add value is always good. 2) he's a CF (which sets the bar for lower than say 1B or even 3B) and he's 36 fielding runs above replacement at that position which is really really good. 3) Plus he's stolen 23 bases and only gotten caught stealing once.

I don't think any of the awards are cut and dried this year other than MVP Alex, Cy Young Peavy, ROY Braun (even with his terrible fielding). I think there are at least three reasonable candidates for every other award, sometimes more. I think Pedroia, Fielder and Beckett will win, though.

And probably Melvin and Torre for Managers of the Year, I'd think.

youngest guy ever to hit 50 HRs = sportswriters cum (tho Rollins still has a shot, even tho Utley is more valuable with a month on the DL)

think that's why VORP might be a little problematic wrt MVP, i'm not sure that the positional value should mean anything. it's useful for measuring value against other players at that position but mvp is relative to ALL other players.

But this is one of VORP's major strengths! 30HR/100RBI is no big deal if you play 1B, but if you're a catcher then those are monster numbers. It's not always fair to compare against the entire league. A 1B with a 1000 OPS is usually far less valuable than a catcher with a 900 OPS because good hitting 1Bmen are relatively easy to find.

That doesn't make sense to me.
if you have that 30hr/100rbi catcher and a 1b that's at, say, 32/110 - the catcher would be a better mvp candidate because of the position he plays? i thought mvp = biggest impact on a team; not most difficult person to replace in a line-up!

well, being that kind of difficult-to-replace player is a measure of value, it could be argued.

(ie, Ryan Howard isn't even in my top 10 in the NL right now)

(...as that gaudy RBI total is largely a reflection of Rollins & Utley being on base all the time)

With that C/1B scenario, I'd tend to side with the catcher -- as long as he is not some kind of liablity behind the plate -- by virtue of having to squat, wear all that gear, call pitches, et cetera, for 130 games or whatever. He has to be locked in on every pitch of the game. It is very taxing, both physically and mentally. Being able to do that, in addition to producing very significantly on offense, is extremely valuable. I think that has more impact than a first baseman with slightly better offensive numbers.

Well either way Pena has had a better year than Posada, whether its looking at their offensive production with no positional adjustment or looking at their value compared to replacement player. Unless you don't count defense into the latter argument, I guess.

OK - that does make sense. but the argument that a players impact a team, in the sphere of mvp consideration, is impacted by the relative value of others in his position still doesn't add up for me.

xpost

Anyway NL Cy Young:

1) Peavy
2) Webb
3) Smoltz
4) Oswald
5) Hudson
6) Penny
7) Lilly
8) Harang
9) Cain
10) Gorzellany

AL Cy Young:
1) Beckett
2) Sabbathia
3) Carmona
4) Santana
5) Bedard
6) Lackey
7) Haren
8) Wang
9) Halladay
10) Escobar

AL Cy Young is so tight, but let's be honest pitching in Boston is a harder than pitching in Cleveland so despite being pretty statistically even I gotta go with Beckett. Plus Carmona and Sabathia both being on the same team dinks each of them slightly.

but let's be honest pitching in Boston is a harder than pitching in Cleveland

Not if you're from Texas!

I still doubt that Pena has had a better year than Posada. Defense counts, just not that much (esp at 1b).

Yeah I wonder how FRAR/FRAA works with stuff like that. I mean you would think a CF or C who is 18 runs above average has got to be more valuable than 1B who is, but WARP doesn't seem to differentiate. Those 18 runs saved are the same whereever they come from.

i thought mvp = biggest impact on a team; not most difficult person to replace in a line-up!

yeah i think this is where i'm coming from on this. in general my unscientific but unshakable criterion for MVP in any sport = whoever is the most clearly dominant player over length of that season. a-rod makes that kind of decision pretty easy, but less so in the NL i guess. the nebulous definition of value pretty much demands that you make up your own bullshit reasons for picking whoever.

also, just for the hell of it:

Chipper Jones, Braves (73.9): Jones has his younger self to beat, and he's not going to quite get there this year because he's 30 runs behind his outstanding 1999 VORP of 104.8. Still, his '07 season is fifth on the franchise list since 1959, trailing only his own '99 and '01 efforts, Gary Sheffield's year in '03, and Hank Aaron in 1962 (compiled when the team was still in Milwaukee). This despite the fact that Jones missed a good chunk of time to injury for the third year in a row. Looking at his season in terms of VORPr, it is the seventh-highest among third basemen in the last 48 years. At .561, it is the second-best during the Braves' tenure in Atlanta (1966 forward). In that time, Jones occupies the first, second, fourth, sixth, ninth, and eleventh spots. That's pretty much the definition of a franchise player.

VORPr > VORP

there is no clearly dominant NL player, period. Most years there isn't.

Larry was #2 on my ballot TIL LAST NIGHT.

Here's a fun comparison:

Joe Mauer, 2006: 521 AB, 86 R, 13 HR, 84 RBI, .347/.429/.507
Jorge Posada, 2007: 500 AB, 90 R, 20 HR, 89 RBI, .336/.423/.544

Jorge is suffering from being significantly uglier than Mauer.

i'd like to see those comparison stats park adjusted...

That comparison's fine and if Posada had that year last year I'd probably be saying that's a solid MVP campaign (esp. if he fielded like Mauer.) But it's this year and A-Rod is having a much better year obv and Carlos Pena is having a better year than Morneau did last year.

well, about ten guys are having a better year than Morneau did...

VORP
Posada 2007: 72.0
Mauer 2006: 66.9

Jorge is suffering from being significantly uglier than Mauer.

-- Dr Morbius, Thursday, September 27, 2007 6:35 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

i dunno dude, i know a lady yankee fan who has hella girlboners for posada. which is hilarious/mystifying to me.

njguido.com/posada.jpg

lady yankee fans = very discriminating

VORP
Posada 2007: 72.0
Mauer 2006: 66.9

Yeah, but again that doesn't take into account any defensive contribution. Last year 36 basestealers were successful against Mauer and 24 got caught. That's just a little better 98 and 31. Mauer's also young and pretty quick-footed for a big guy whereas Posada is ancient and tortoise-like.

http://lolyankees.files.wordpress.com/2007/07/lolyanks40.jpg

XP

Yes, I don't disagree Mauer likely had a better year overall

Neither do I, but it's interesting to see how similar the numbers are considering the MVP groundswell Mauer had by comparison.

Yeah well A-Rod's kind of silenced all the other MVP voices in the AL this year.

i thought mvp = biggest impact on a team; not most difficult person to replace in a line-up!

I would argue that these are almost exactly the same things. If Catcher A is 10 wins better than a replacement level catcher, whereas 1Bman B is only 5 wins better than a replacement level 1Bman, then Catcher A has had a bigger impact on his team (= he's done more to help the team win).

Personal ballots aside, I guess we can agree that David Wright doesn't have a chance in hell of winning MVP now. If the Rockies get in, I think it's Holliday now. I'd predict one of the Phillies, based on the Chipper Jones Mets-killing precedent of 1999, but they'll split the vote.

Peavy has a chance too, esp. if he pitches well tomorrow.

I mean assuming there is a tomorrow of course, but it def. looks like there will be.

Uh jinx.

david wright went from a likely first to a likely fourth in a real hurry there, huh

Yes, to the Kruks of the world (ie, 95% of all BBWAA members).

dw might be the top choice, sure, though i'm not certain holliday or utley are bad picks! or rollins, even.

NL MVP:

Name VORP WARP
1 David Wright 81.1 11.2 (in fairness this should really be Pujols again)
2 Matt Holliday 74.4 10.1 (the winner of tonight's game breaks this tie)
2 Jake Peavy 78.7 10.9
4 Albert Pujols 72.1 11.3
5 Chase Utley 68.8 9.6
6 Jimmy Rollins 66.2 9.4
7 Miguel Cabrera 71.4 9.1
8 Hanley Ramirez 89.5 8.7
9 Brandon Webb 66 8.7
10 Chipper Jones 76 8.7

I would vote for Tulowski and Pedroia for ROY and have no opinion on anyone else really.

tulowitzki over braun?

i'd be surprised if the nl mvp was someone other than holliday or rollins right now. utley's out because of missed time even though his aggregate performance for the season was apparently better than rollins'

Yeah the defensive difference is huge. Braun maybe a couple of wins better on offense, but he's just a horrible game changingly bad defender at third, whereas Tulowitzki is a very good offensive shortstop and a excellent glove as well. The difference in VORP is 57 to 35 in Braun's favor, but Braun's WARP is a mindboggling low 4.4 (-20 FRAA!) to Tulowitzki's 8.0.

dang. i need to start paying more attention to WARP, huh.

Well if I would be more inclined to possibly write it off as an aberration of WARP if it wasn't for the fact that EVERY defensive metric and the human eye as well (26 ERRORS!) seem to agree that Braun is really really really terribly historically awful with the glove and that Tulowitzki is really really good. I mean .634 slugging is impressive, but it's more impressive when you aren't given a shitload of those runs back ya know.

NL MVP

1- Matt Holiday
2- Jimmy Rollins
3- David Wright
4- Prince Fielder

AL MVP

1- A Rod
2- Vlad
3- Magglio Ordonez
4- Grady Sizemore

NL Cy Young

1- Jake Peavey
2- Brandon Webb

AL Cy Young

1- CC Sabathia
2- Beckett

Where does Brandon Phillips show up on those VORP lists? Phillips put up some pretty gaudy numbers for someone at second base. I don't know where Phillips defensive zone numbers and the like fall, but he made some crazy plays that I have not seen out of someone at second since Sandberg.

braun made three errors in one of the brewers' final losses of the season.

Phillips has 37 VORP and 8.4 WARP (slightly better than Tulowitzki on both counts.)

phillips was a FANTASY GOD this year, like a budget version of soriano last year. i'm not sure how he fares metric-wise.

I still don't think Braun's stinko defense quite catches Tulo up to him.

NL MVP

David Wright, NY
Chipper Jones, ATL
Albert Pujols, STL
Hanley Ramirez, FLA
Chase Utley, PHI
Matt Holliday, COL
Jake Peavy, SD
Miguel Cabrera, FLA
Prince Fielder, MIL
Jimmy Rollins, PHI

AL ROY

Jeremy Guthrie, BAL
Dustin Pedroia, BOS
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS

NL ROY

Ryan Braun, MIL
Troy Tulowitzki, COL
Hunter Pence, HOU

NL CY

Jake Peavy, SD
Brandon Webb, ARI
Brad Penny, LA
Tim Hudson, ATL
Roy Oswalt, HOU

AL CY

C.C. Sabathia, CLE
John Lackey, LAA
Fausto Carmona, CLE
Josh Beckett, BOS
Johan Santana, MIN

NL MOY

Clint Hurdle, COL
Bob Melvin, ARI
Charlie Manuel, PHI

AL MOY

Mike Scioscia, LAA
Eric Wedge, CLE
Terry Francona, BOS

a-rod/rollins mvps
yawn

get more sleep!

word up

YOUR OFFICIAL MLB COMEBACK PLAYERS OF THE YEAR FOR 2007:

CARLOS PENA (FORMER DETROIT 1B)
DMITRI YOUNG (FORMER DETROIT 1B)

Greg (Milwaukee): Fielder 87 extra base hits, 119 rbis, 109 runs and a 618 slu Wright 73 ectra base hits, 107, rbi's, 113 runs, and a 546 slugging How does Wright have better numbers?

Rob Neyer: (1:07 PM ET ) Greg, I'm in Oregon, where it's still too early in the morning to explain park effects (not to mention the difference between an immobile first baseman and a rangy third baseman).

Okay I know it's boring to argue over the meaning of "valuable" but come on, the Mets have Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado and Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner and millions of dollars of other proven major league talent. Who did the Brewers have this year besides Fielder and a certain May call-up slugger? Sheets sucked, Weeks disappeared, Hall regressed, Hardy regressed (although still had a great freakin' year to be honest), we started Craig Counsell and Tony Graffanino on a regular basis...and we still almost made the playoffs, only losing to the Cubs' payroll. Was David Wright really more important to the Mets than Prince Fielder was to the Brewers?

Not to say Wright shouldn't be MVP, just saying Neyer is wrong to dismiss the question out of hand like that.

[Redacted "park effects is bullshit in an MVP argument" screed]

I don't think an individual award should depend on how bad (or good) the guy's teammates are.

The only Met who is conceivably deserving of edging into the MVP top 10, April-to-Labor Day hype for Reyes notwithstanding, is Beltran. Very similar to Fielder-Braun. Except Wright plays a more challenging position than Prince, and the park effects cited above.

^the only OTHER Met^

I wonder if Holliday wins it now. He moves above Peavy in my list above and I am entertaining thoughts about pushing him above Wright as well (although I think I'll stick with my original vote.)

you're folding! like the Mets! Wright would've cut HIS chin if he'd known.

it's not called Best Player, Doc, it's "Most Valuable." your issue is not with me, the logician -- it's with the bastards who thought up the damn thing in the first place

that having been said, I don't really care about this award anyway so sure, yeah, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Scott Schoenweis, whoever, woo-hoo.

at sea level holliday is jeff kent circa this season! it'll either be him or rollins, though.

xp

same diff (MV = Best, sez me)

Fielder is a really awful fielder at probably the least difficult to field position on the diamond. That really decreases his value to me same as it does Brauns. But really all things being equal I think Wright was the only reason the Mets even had a chance at the postseason this year and he played far far better overall than Fielder did.

dude can steal a base too, and i don't mean the number he stole but the relative number he didn't get caught. actually this season had a shitload of dudes who stole a fair number of bases w/a great success rate.

Nobody knows or understands the voting criteria for the MVP Award, because there are none. Come on guys, we go through this every year.

That said, I tend to dislike arguments like "Did Player X mean more to Team Y than ..." because then you can argue that the lone superstars on shitty teams should win all the time. Paging Mike Sweeney. The counterargument is the oft-heard "yeah, but they'd have still finished last without him" which is equally extreme.

This guy uses a predictive methodology based on BBWAA history, and expects Holliday to edge Rollins:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/whos-going-to-be-the-mvp/

I think that methodology is pretty flawed since one of the factors has to be whether or not another viable candidate plays on the same team.

It can't be any less flawed than ranking Rollins TENTH like Morbs just did up above.

Haha yeah I don't know what that's based on.

REVENGE

That guy's PREDICTING, I'm going on merit. How about Rollins' merely OK(for leadoff) .344 OBP and the way his sissypants ballpark enabled him to reach 30 homers?

I'll put Bonds tenth if you prefer.

hahahahahaha that is an awesome fake Dr. Morbius post

wright was a more efficient base stealer this year than reyes iirc

i was looking at some WARPs and shit (wright and pujols easily lead the nl w/11.2 and 11.3 respectively), and i came back to hanley ramirez and his giganto-VORP again - the funny thing about hanley is that his defense is so insanely fucking bad that you'd think it basically negates the supposed advantage of having a SS who can mash it. i mean if u started playing big papi at SS you would have the greatest hitting ss of all time, but also the worst fielder in the world. hanley and larry have the same WARP btw, 8.7~~~

"i mean if u started playing big papi at SS you would have the greatest hitting ss of all time"

Well except for A-Rod.

the funny thing about hanley is that his defense is so insanely fucking bad that you'd think it basically negates the supposed advantage of having a SS who can mash it.

No. It would literally have to be an Ortiz at SS to come close to negating it.

I didn't realize so many of you drank the Kruk-Aid about J-Roll. There's nothing wrong with being the 10th-best player in the league, you know.

Rollins has a lower road OPS than Matt Holliday.

I'm guessing I'm not the only one who voted in the Internet Baseball Awards (hope cankles missed it).

Hardball Times guy -- NOTE, no Holliday or Rollinsmouth in top 5:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/my-2007-mvps