Which of these surprising/flourishing teams will have the most successful second half?

i figure the Nats have the best odds, with the Sox and Indians both having decent odds of not totally imploding.

kinda interesting how linked many of these prob are to if their breakout sp's can keep up what they did in the 1st half

gio (strasburg too, tho he was expected to be an ace)
burnett/mcdonald
hammel
dickey
sale/peavy

For reference - here is each of these teams' actual winning percentage vs. third-order wins (which adjusts for run differential and quality of opponent)

Orioles: .529/.460
Indians: .518/.524
White Sox: .553/.575
Nationals: .590/.581
Mets: .535/.533
Pirates: .565/.515

It's about what you'd expect - the Nats are legit, the White Sox are surprisingly good (Dunn not being a hole in the middle of the lineup probably has a little do with this), and both the Orioles and Pirates are both (finally) running hot

In terms of wins above expectation, the Orioles are #1 (advanced stats put them at about 39 wins instead of 45) and Pirates #2. Then it's Dodgers, Rays, and Marlins. The unluckiest teams so far are the Red Sox (should have 48 wins instead of 43) and the Phillies (who still aren't good, but shouldn't be 13 games under). After that it's Cardinals, Mariners, White Sox, and D-Back. Welp, that's all I got

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

well this might impact the O's

ORIOLES PITCHER JASON HAMMEL LEFT THE GAME IN THE TOP OF THE FOURTH INNING WITH AN APPARENT INJURY.