How many Hall of Famers play for the 2012 Yankees?

I think the first four are locks, but I'm pessimistic about the last five. Chances are that at least one of them makes it though, so I voted for five. I could easily see six getting elected, maybe even seven (Cano, CC, Pettitte), but definitely not all nine.

tier 1 (locks)
a rod
jeter
mo
ichiro

tier 2 (possible)
andruw
cc
canoe
tex

tier 3 (eh)
pettite

obv michael pineda = lock also

yeah, that's why there's a "more than 9" option

ditto Ivan Nova, who has a chance to become the Andy Pettitte of the new era (= mediocre innings eater with impressive W-L records because he plays for the Yankees)

I basically agree with Kevin's assessment except that I think CC is a likely HoFer if he continues at the rate he's going whereas Jones and Tex are unlikely to make unless they experience a complete renaissance and Cano has to put up a bunch more good years (which is certainly possible) before he gets real consideration. And A-Rod might get punished for being a douche and druggie, I guess.

So three definites. One should be, but might not because voters are fickle. Two maybes.

I voted six: five down the road, with another one farther down the road. Jeter, Rivera, Ichiro, Sabathia, and Cano, then eventually A-Rod. We'll know better where A-Rod stands after Bonds/Clemens this year, but the thing that I thought was going to happen--that Bonds, Clemens, and A-Rod would get the "he was already a Hall of Famer" pass--I don't think that's going to happen anymore.

The link in NoTime's original post doesn't seem to work. Try this:

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/8/6/3223415/new-york-yankees-hall-of-famers-future-number

A-Rod isn't going to be HOF-eligible for ~12 years, and you know what? A lot more of the sanctimonious voters will be dead or retired by then than ppl are assuming.

So 4 "for sure," and figure 2 more of the other 5.

pretty sure that pettitte has a much better shot than any of the other non-locks not named sabathia at this point. also pretty sure tex has the longest shot, he seems more like a palmeiro or mcgriff type to voters maybe. and he's starting to decline.

Cano will probably be underrated when his career is over, like most second basemen are (Grich, Whitaker, Utley, etc.) unless he puts up a few more monster seasons. He turns 30 this year, so I'd say it's a long shot.

Nobody is going to question Ichiro as a lock? I haven't seen much written about his HOF chances, maybe because there isn't any consensus on whether or not his years in Japan should "count". It feels obvious that he'll be elected (at least to me) but I really have no idea what the voters are thinking sometimes, and there isn't any precedent for a player like him.

it's the baseball hall of fame, not the mlb hall

that's true, but Sadaharu Oh isn't in it (not that they are otherwise comparable). I think Ichiro's 4000 or so combined hits will still overcome any hedging, along with his role as a pioneering 2-continent star.

Ichiro's so anemic right now, I think he'd be smart not to hang around too long. Don't know what his contract status is, but I'd like to see him get out after this year rather than limp along for 3,000 hits. If he does, I think he's first-ballot, with or without the Japanese years.

Not sure what you mean. Sadaharu Oh isn't in the HOF. None of the pre-WWII players got credit for their minor league numbers (back when there were a million really good independent minor leagues before they all became feeder leagues) when they were considered for the HOF. The only precedent for non-career MLB players getting elected was with the Negro Leagues.

xpost

Wouldn't the letter of the law be irrelevant when it comes time to vote for Ichiro? Whether they say so or not, some writers will take into account his time in Japan, some won't.

it's pretty funny how many of his batting comps are deadball guys.

1.Lloyd Waner (875) *
2.Edd Roush (860) *
3.Jack Tobin (859)
4.Wally Moses (849)
5.Willie McGee (843)
6.Paul Hines (837)
7.George Burns (832)
8.Jake Daubert (831)
9.Ken Griffey (831)
10.Patsy Donovan (829)

*HOF

pretty sure that pettitte has a much better shot than any of the other non-locks not named sabathia at this point. also pretty sure tex has the longest shot, he seems more like a palmeiro or mcgriff type to voters maybe. and he's starting to decline.

― omar little, Tuesday, August 7, 2012 11:28 AM (44 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

pettite also has the best chance of hanging it up quickest, other than maybe andruw. the others are obv based on projections. and if pettite retires soon, his case would be pretty weak. though if he wins another world series who knows lol

xpost to clemenza

Sure, there's no set rule on whether he should get credit for the years in Japan. But based on his MLB stats alone, you could argue that he'd be borderline at best (54.3 WAR, which of course includes his defense). With the Japanese years it's a slam dunk by any measure. And if you give him credit as a pioneer and a unique talent/throwback (however unquantifiable it may be) then it's also a slam dunk.

Oh, I agree with all of that (although I think his MLB-only case is stronger than you do). But there seemed to be some question above as to whether his Japanese years should count under the rules, and I'm just saying that the rules will be largely irrelevant, because if a writer wants to take his Japanese years into consideration he's going to do it, regardless of whether he's technically allowed to or not.

I think we went through all this on another thread, but there are basically three paths to the HOF: the career path (Lou Brock, say--these are just examples, doesn't matter whether you think they belong or not), the peak path (Koufax), and, for most players, some combination of the two. From 2001-2010, I think Ichiro did what he had to do to qualify for the meteoric peak path. The ten 200-hit years and the batting titles and the hits record will win over traditional voters, and the 52.7 WAR for those years will be enough for most sabermetrically-inclined voters. Just as a point of comparison, I looked at three sabermetric favorites, Gary Carter and Blyleven and Tim Raines. Carter compiled a 58.6 WAR from '77 to '86; Blyleven's best was 54.3 from '71-80; Raines' best was 47.1 from '81-90. Ichiro's in their range, so I think he'll get a lot of traditional support and enough sabermetric support to cross the line.

Actually only won two batting titles...so throw in the MVP, too. He should have been nicknamed "Binary." His runs scored from 2002-2007: 111, 111, 101, 111, 110, 111.

Hmm, thought Cano was in a better position, but he's ~40 WAR behind Biggio and Alomar. He'll need to be All-Star-quality for quite a while to reach the top-10/15

Are we voting "who will" or "who should"?

i voted for 6... tex has no shot. i think pettite is barely good enough + has some steroid stink so that combo probably keeps him out. andruw was a high peak guy & i don't think they necessarily fare well. the image of great andruw is really far off now.

i'm probably showing too much faith in cano tho

i think CC is on his way to being a lock

andruw was a high peak guy & i don't think they necessarily fare well

Yes--Koufax's unique precedent aside, I think the peak has to be 10 years of basically unbroken excellence. Dale Murphy had an eight-year peak, and he fell short. Nomar's was seven years, and he'll certainly fall short. You can push Andruw's to 10 years if you give him a break at both ends, but I think most people would see an eight-year peak.

Also I think most people don't think Andruw is as good as those three dudes.

also so much of his WAR value is in his defense and tho he is obv well known as a great defender i'm not so sure that it's gonna be enough to get him in

Are we voting "who will" or "who should"?

"who will" was the intent

clemenza, if you're right about steroid shutouts continuing for more than a decade, the HOF is going to want to elect SOME people its visitors saw as players.

Ichiro is a mortal lock. The MVP/ROY, the hits record, the ten years of excellence (maybe just very very goodness by advanced metrics, but close enough that it won't matter) and easily the most dynamic player of his era and all post-age 27.

yeah ichiro is second ballot

I mean the same dudes voting on his candidacy are the guys who made him a Gold Glover ten straight years. I can't imagine they are going to suddenly go "wait dude wasn't that good."

If Ichiro doesn't get in the first time around I would be very surprised.

Again, I'm going to try to hold off on the PED thing until we see how Bonds and Clemens fare. But if the unwritten PED rule continues to keep Bonds and the rest out, there will always be other recent players who might benefit in their absence: Raines, Trammell, Schilling, etc.

I voted 6 - Jeter, Rivera, A-Rod, and Ichiro would all be in if they retired today (and yes, I think the voters will at least consider Ichiro's Japan years). CC Sabathia isn't quite a lock yet but I'm ~90% sure he's in. Of the other four, I think one out of them should make it; probably Cano, probably not Teixeira or Pettite, but who knows really. The voters always surprise me.

Gold Gloves aren't the best indicator -- lots of guys who aren't going to the HOF won GG's every year in their prime (Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel, to name two). MVP votes tell us more about how they're received by the writers at the time, and he hasn't done so well there (uh, besides the MVP he won of course, although he probably didn't deserve it). If you compare Ichiro to say, Rod Carew and Tony Gwynn (two other high average hit machines), Carew also won an MVP and finished in the top 10 six times, Gwynn was in the top 10 seven times (although never came close to winning), Ichiro won once and had four top 10 finishes.

I'm not really disagreeing with anyone here -- I do think he's a lock to be elected in his first or second year -- but it's more about the total package, being more than the sum of his parts, rather than putting up HOF numbers in his prime in MLB.

Cano will probably be underrated when his career is over, like most second basemen are (Grich, Whitaker, Utley, etc.)

i know your point was more about second basemen - but i have a hard time believing *any* yankee is going to be underrated (unless he does something like getting traded to Royals and pumping out several 7+ war season in KC)!

As Neyer says, Pettite has his mythical postseason "greatness" going for him (he's been just good).

i have a hard time believing *any* yankee is going to be underrated

James once presented some pretty convincing research in one of the Abstracts as to how the Yankees had been shortchanged in awards voting over the years in relation to their success as a team. Don't know if that still holds 25 years later, or if it translates to HOF voting.

no mention of Joba?

Kinda obvious...

Derek Jeter
Mariano Rivera
Alex Rodriguez
Ichiro

File under- lets see how it finishes off

Robinson Cano- The guy has put up a really good half a career at 2b. If he can stay healthy and productive, he's going to have some pretty good career numbers for his position.

Mark Teixeira- He's seemed to already peaked at the plate and turned into a .250 hitting power hitter. Never know, he might have another bust out year or be consistent enough to hit 500 HRs, but I think with Adam Dunn probably heading there, that probably won't be an automatic thing anymore. Probably not in the end.

CC Sabathia- It's hard to argue with what the guy has done, but considering he is such a big guy, I think he will need to avoid the injury bug. He retires with a career 3.70 ERA, with it rising as he gets older (it's like 3.53 now) - that might be used to knock his accomplishments.

Nah.

Andy Pettitte- He was very solid for a good while on the top tier team with some playoff wins, but he was rarely great.

Andruw Jones- I get the whole centerfield argument some are already making for him and Jim Edmonds, but I just don't think of them as being great as much as just hall of very good status.

CC's been fairly healthy so far and he's got a lot of counting stats plus ERA has been dropping (it was highest when he was younger.)

pretty sure that pettitte has a much better shot than any of the other non-locks not named sabathia at this point. also pretty sure tex has the longest shot, he seems more like a palmeiro or mcgriff type to voters maybe. and he's starting to decline.

― omar little, Tuesday, August 7, 2012 11:28 AM (44 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

pettite also has the best chance of hanging it up quickest, other than maybe andruw. the others are obv based on projections. and if pettite retires soon, his case would be pretty weak. though if he wins another world series who knows lol

― k3vin k.

lol andy's gonna go 6 IP w/ 2 ER in a clinching game and that will seal his chances but who knows when he'll hang it up, he could probably go another 5 years but i don't know if he's willing to play much longer. yet i figure despite the roid stank and his lack of peak numbers, voters look at him like they look at jack morris, which means he's got a real good shot, deserved or not. but who knows, folks were speculating voters would be kinder to bernie williams, too.

cano is amazing but almost 30 and it looks like his closest contemporaries are utley and baerga, though i like his chances of lasting longer than them and accumulating enough peak seasons to make it.

I can't see that there is any scenario in which Teixeira makes the HoF at this point.

no

He'll pile up a ton of counting stats with the Yanks, he might have 500 HR + 1600 RBI by the time his contract is up and still might be able to pad his totals for a few years after that as a part timer a la Thome. If Tony Perez made the HOF as an RBI machine on winning teams then Teixeira could too. It's not likely, but I can imagine a scenario where he has the best shot of the non-locks, save CC.

500 HR and 1600 RBI don't mean as much as they once did. He's declining now and his rate stats aren't amazing for a 1B despite playing in a bandbox for the first part of his career. And this Yankee team has nowhere near the cachet of those Cincy teams (hell they don't even have the cachet of the 90s/00s Yankee teams and Bernie Williams is getting anywhere near the HOF if his first year voting %s are any indicator.)

also there are the dudes who insist a player have been the best in the majors at his position at some point. and he's no prince albert

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

andruw jones is the greatest CF since willie mays discuss

I looked again at Teixeira, and I wouldn't count him out yet. If you use James's Favorite Toy method (which, seeing as players stick around longer today than 30 years ago, probably slightly underestimates probabilities), my calculations give him a 35% chance at 600 home runs. I know 500 home runs is going to become a lot less meaningful very soon, but, new stats or not, I still say 600 will be a lock for a while yet (usual exception noted). So I'd say that's his chance of getting in--and for every 10 home runs he falls short, deduct another 3 or 4% (down to no chance at 500).

(Penciling him in for 31 home runs this year, and counting his age as 32--maybe I should be using his age next season.)

Clemenza are you in NY i forget

I can see us having the same debate with Teixieira in 10 years that we are with Johnny Damon now, but the short answer is, I think 1B's need to be held to a higher standard offensively

i will bet money Teix doesn't break 500 HRs.

No, Toronto...I kind of garbled the Teixeira post. What I'm saying is that he has (according to James's 30-year-old formula) a 35% chance at 600 home runs, which, I believe, would give him a 100% chance of induction. He's got a 36% chance to hit 590, which might give him a 95% chance of induction, so on and so forth, all the way down to a 51% chance of hitting 500, which for Teixeira I don't think would mean much of anything in terms of getting into the Hall of Fame.

OK word. I'ma pull the "watch him every day" card and override your math. There is no way in creation that he ever comes w/in a sniff of 500 HR, let alone 600.

35% and falling by the day.

Good point--you always get a better sense of someone when you actually get to see him on a regular basis. Having said that, one of the purposes of sabermetrics was to remove, or at least minimize, the you-had-to-see-him argument from player evaluation. But I'm not disagreeing with you.

He has four more years on his contract so if you figure 35 HR per year (including this year) then that'll get him nearly to 500 HR and he'll only be 36. 600 HR isn't so far fetched. And his contract makes him almost unbenchable.

I can see us having the same debate with Teixieira in 10 years that we are with Johnny Damon now,

Or Palmeiro!

He's been fairly consistent in HR and RBI, even if his rate stats have gone a bit crap (thx top of the Yankees order).

well that's exactly it - with all his other numbers sliding, it's only matter of time before the home runs give too. in a few short years he could easily become a dependable upper 20s hr guy as opposed to low 30s.

I'm always interested in this stuff, so here are all the guys who ended up between 400-500 home runs (not including active players in that range), and where they stood after the year in which they turned 32:

Duke Snider -- 331/ended up with 407
Darrell Evans -- 184/414 (hit a ton late into his 30s)
Billy Williams -- 291/426
Mike Piazza -- 278/427
Cal Ripken -- 273/431
Juan Gonzalez -- 397/434
Andre Dawson -- 225/438
Dave Kingman -- 270/442
Jeff Bagwell -- 310/449
Yaz -- 257/452
Jose Canseco -- 328/462
Dave Winfield -- 236/465
Carlos Delgado -- 336/473
Willie Stargell -- 277/475
Stan Musial -- 227/475
Fred McGriff -- 289/493
Lou Gehrig -- 378/493

Obviously, there are a whole bunch of different stories there as to the circumstances of why they fell short of 500 (or, with a guy like Evans, how he somehow managed to hit over 400). But even on a list of guys who didn't make it to 500, they averaged 163 home runs after the age of 32. Teixeira will finish the year between 340-350, so I have to believe he's got an excellent shot at 500.

wow - Juan Gon just hit a wall there, didn't he?!

Gonzalez had a decent shot at 700 coming off his age-32 season: 397 HR, big year (.325/35/140), coming off seasons of 35/22 (injury year)/39/45. But he was one of many players from that era who had developed an addiction to aspirin, and when you come off the aspirin, your game just falls apart.

teixeira really feels more like a delgado or palmeiro type and i bet his counting stats end up just a bit beyond delgado's but he won't come near his career BA/OBP/SLG/OPS.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

I'm having a hard time imagining who, of the people who post on this board, would vote zero. Is that Yankee hatred or people just screwing around?

Darrell Evans -- 184/414 (hit a ton late into his 30s)

I seem to remember Darrell Evans really liking to use that short right field porch in old Tiger stadium. The guy hit 232 HRs of those 414 from age 36-42, which has to be one of the better late career boosts this side of the 'aspirin' era.

I'd say Delgado or Crime Dog is a pretty decent comparison to Teixiera, even though neither was a switch hitter. If Teixeira does hit 500 HRs, the fact that it has only been done by 2 other switch hitters with Mantle and Eddie Murray will be noted.

I always think of Evans as one of the first sabermetric heroes--him, Bobby Grich, Gene Tenace, Gary Carter.

I'm having a hard time imagining who, of the people who post on this board, would vote zero. Is that Yankee hatred or people just screwing around?

I know Morbs has upwards of a dozen sock accounts, he was probably 'avin' a larf.

now *that's* a dedicated Yankee hater :)

i could see tex scraping 500 as his career really winds down (like into his 2012 giambi period) but i don't think it will mean all that much by the time he goes in

I voted 6 but should have voted 4 players, because of John Sterling's and Suzyn Waldman's mortal lock as HoF broadcasters.

i will bet money Teix doesn't break 500 HRs.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, August 13, 2012 10:20 AM (3 years ago)

OK word. I'ma pull the "watch him every day" card and override your math. There is no way in creation that he ever comes w/in a sniff of 500 HR, let alone 600.
― Grimy Little Pimp (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Monday, August 13, 2012 10:56 AM (3 years ago)

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/193777300/mark-teixeira-to-reportedly-retire-after-2016/

You guys were right, I was wrong.

It looks like the right answer to the poll question--for at least as long as A-Rod remains in purgatory, anyway--will be four.

i like the 5 votes for zero

According to Baseball Reference, career was most similar to Tino Martinez's.

who knows how future iterations of the VCs will work, but i think we can safely eliminate CC and Teixeira.

CC's career is looking a lot like andy pettitte's, cumulatively speaking, and w/o the postseason bonafides.

Who's the fourth if A-Rod gets held back, Cano?

he's on track, JAWSwise

I somehow just don't FEEL it but looking at the numbers it's hard to deny his case looks strong.

That's who I meant, Cano. He started to slide a bit last year (in view of his age--he had a pretty good season), but he might hit 40 home runs this year and is looking pretty solid again, I think.

cano last year was miserable the first half and fire the second half. he's more or less on his HOF trajectory again