2008 HOF player ballot

Two weeks into spring training, Dawson turned the tables on Green and the Cubs, presenting Green with a blank contract. Green filled in the contract with lean figures: a $500,000 base salary with $250,000 in incentives if Dawson made the All-Star team, started the All-Star Game, or won the National League MVP award. He did all three

the hawk deserves it, just for this

except he totally did not deserve that MVP.

I think I would vote Raines, Gossage, McGwire and maybe Trammell.

Same here, though it would be awkward to have Trammell and not Whitaker.

...Like when they run in to each other in the cafeteria?

No Murphy, no credibility.

Blyleven, McGwire, Dawson, Raines, Trammell, Goose

harold baines not quite good enough for the Hall, he barely made the cut last year, and yet

career hits - 2866 HR - 384 RBI - 1628 BA - .289

tony perez

career hits - 2732 HR - 379 RBI - 1652 BA - .279

no big red machine, no hall???

From the list, I'd take Dawson, Rice and Smith

lmao knoblauch

seriously wtf

hawk, goose, big lee has the numbers though saves are such crap, rice

surprised mattingly doesn't even have 2200 hits.

no big red machine, no hall???

Tony Perez shouldn't have been selected in the first place.

What are the chances that nobody gets in this year? There aren't any slam-dunk selections like Ripken or Gwynn.

(yeah, I know that guys like Blyleven and Gossage should be HOFers, but I'm trying to gauge the opinions of the people who actually cast the votes)

At one point, a few years ago, I think Lee Smith would have been a first ballot HOFer, but now that Hoffman has broken his record, with others sure to follow in the next couple of years (Mo Rivera and Billy Wagner for sure -- both of whom are much better pitchers than Smith was), I'm not sure that he'll get in at all.

Raines should be a slam-dunk.

He deserves to get in, but I have zero confidence that it will happen this year. Rickey gets in next year, followed by ten or so years of dumb HOF voters dismissing Raines as a "poor man's Rickey" or whatever. But he'll get in eventually.

Agree on Raiunes having to wait... Tony Perez got too much credit for 90 RBI every season in the best lineup of the decade.

I forgot Blyleven.

Todd Stottlemyre!

what?! no love for brady anderson? no love for tawny kitaen's ex-husband?

you guys...

Stottlemyre -- never an all-star, right?

I mean it's about time he got some recognition for that one year his ERA was lower than 4.00.

Brady's plaque image wd be his beefcake poster

Rock: the Vote
by Jay Jaffe

The BBWAA 2008 Hall of Fame ballot was announced on Monday. It features 14 holdovers and 11 newcomers, all of whom I’ll get to in due time once the data elves can turn their attention away from Baseball Prospectus 2008 long enough to feed the hamster that run the JAWS machine.

The most prominent and qualified newcomer on this year’s ballot is a player whose candidacy many of us have eagerly awaited: Tim Raines. Not because he’s a slam dunk for election; Raines lacks the round-number milestones and major category rankings that generate buzz come ballot time. His 808 stolen bases (fifth all-time) and 84.7 percent success rate (tops among those with 300 or more attempts) don’t really register in the context of today’s power-saturated game. Indeed, one gets the impression that Raines may not break 50 percent of the vote initially, and could be in for years of Blylevenesque toil on the ballot.

No, as I read it, our collective enthusiasm for Raines’ candidacy stems from a combination of three things:

• the electricity he generated in his prime, with his dazzling speed and athleticism. Tim Raines could take over a game, as his comeback from collusion-driven contract limbo and his bravura performance at the 1987 All-Star Game showed.

• the charisma that became more apparent as he aged, morphing into a classy, highly-sought role player on the engaging Yankee champions of Joe Torre’s early tenure. As I wrote in a mailbag piece nearly two years ago:

Gotta love the Rock! Friend of BP Alex Belth probably calls me twice a year to ask whether I think Tim Raines could make it, chirping, “I wish he was on this ballot, man!” On some level, I share Alex’s excitement, and if ever there were a candidate I’d want to launch a preemptive campaign to enshrine, it’s Raines, who in his Expo days was an unforgettable, electrifying ballplayer, the kind whose obvious joy at playing the game made you savor it—and him—all the more.

• the fact that the nascent field of sabermetrics arrived in time to give us a fuller appreciation of Raines’ value. Raines was a Bill James favorite—he called him the second-greatest leadoff man of all-time, after Rickey Henderson, and ranked him as the eighth-best leftfielder in his New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. He was a favorite around these parts as well; as far back as his first, illness-related retirement in early 2000, we were penning tributes, and the day after the 2007 voting results were announced, Joe Sheehan was beating the drum for Raines’ candidacy. Raines himself showed a good understanding of his sabermetric virtues, preaching the gospel of OBP and the necessity of a high stolen-base success rate (his 84.7 percent dwarfs even Henderson’s 80.8) in David Laurila’s excellent Q&A from this past summer.

Joe’s take includes a JAWS-based comparison of Raines with Jim Rice, at 63.5 percent the top vote-getter among the returning hitters on the ballot. Since I haven’t revised the numbers yet, we’ll stick with those:

EQA BRAR BRAA FRAA WARP3 peak JAWS
Rice .295 648 379 -16 89.3 58.2 73.8
Raines .308 893 596 37 131.8 72.3 102.1
AVG HOF LF 752 477 7 111.1 62.6 86.8

Ain’t. Even. Close. Sure, Rice has the 1978 MVP award and the reputation as the game’s most feared slugger in his heyday, but Raines was much more valuable in his prime. He was worth more than 10 wins a year at his peak; that’s two wins a year better than the best of Jim Rice, and more than 40 wins better over the course of his career.

Raines, whom JAWS ranks seventh among leftfielders, suffers only in comparison to Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter of all time and the fourth-ranked leftfielder (178.2/76.1/127.2). The other names in that top seven are Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Pete Rose and Carl Yastrzemski. Some of them could play. Hall of Fame speedster Lou Brock, at 88.2/48.3/68.3, needs to connect at an international airport to get anywhere near that stratosphere. Yes, Brock has 3,000 hits and some incredible World Series performances on Raines, but we’re talking a gap of more than three wins a year at peak. You can’t just handwave that away. link.

Raines performed under the influence of PEDs therefore I think he should be banned from the HOF.

Is it common knowledge, or just an urban legend in my household, that Raines always slid head first because he always kept a vial of something or other in his back pocket?

Common knowledge.

urban legend?

Haha okay it's a common urban legend then. I mean you can't see an article on Raines that doesn't mention it (usually in conjunction with his nickname "Rock" haha).

urban knowledge?

pft xpost

Mark McGwire, confirmed drug cheat? Are you sure?

"confirmed" "drug" "cheat"

JOSE CANSECO SAID SO

"Tracy Ringolsby: The biggest debates for me were Tim Raines, who obviously was overshadowed by Rickey Henderson, but also if you take Vince Coleman's five top years, I would say he outperformed Raines, too, and I don't see Coleman as a Hall of Famer."

Bonkers.

Pick ONLY ONE: Black speed demons of the '80s

aren't you forgetting something?

• Dr. Morbius

I think Tracy Ringolsby must have never saw Vince Coleman actually play the outfield. For all of that speed, the dude was a total dud in the field.

I don't even know if Coleman would have even done what he did if he played someplace else other than that crazy carpet that they had at Busch stadium. Ozzie Smith also got a bazoodle of cheapy hits off that rug, as did Willie Wilson on that fake carpet in Kansas City. That turf in St. Louis was crazy, those guys adding in Willie McGee and Tommy Herr could infield single teams to death.

I'm pretty sure Tracy Ringolsby has never looked at any of Vince Coleman or Tim Raines stats and is basing all of this on some complete bullshit fantasy of Vince Coleman being valuable because he once stole 110 or something bases.

In all fairness, I'm not totally sure that Tim Raines would make my HOF either, but if you are debating about putting Rice or Dawson or whomever in (not to mention any number of marginal ballplayers who've already made it) well Raines was clearly a more valuable OF than any of those guys by any reasonable measurement.

Alex, how would you see Raines falling short? These numbers look good to me:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/raineti01.shtml

I am not categorically stating that Raines wouldn't get my vote, but I am growing more and more in favor of a smaller and more elite hall of fame and I'm not totally sure that Raines would make that hall.

By my count Raines had about six or seven very strong years and a bunch of good, but more middling ones. And of course he was around forever. Looking at this case seems pretty strong: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7007, but I'm not totally sure looking at the numbers (esp. defensively--look at the FRAA/FRAR for some of Raines best years!) that it's as clear cut as Jaffe is making it seem. Is seven strong years (including one MVP year where a month was robbed from him) enough? Probably, but I'd want to do a lot more thinking about it (esp. comparing Raines with other elite LFers) before I would state categorically that he should make it.

And of course, I'm not REALLY voting so I'm not going to do that haha.

A lot of 80's stars are undervalued today because offensive numbers have increased so much since then, I'm thinking about guys like Sandberg (who wasn't elected in his first year of eligibility), Trammell, Raines, and maybe Dawson. Maybe the best 90's/00's comp for Raines is Craig Biggio?? Both guys were one of the best, if not the best OBP/run producing machines in their prime, underrated because he was overshadowed by teammate(s) with better Triple Crown stats, and played forever. Biggio played long enough to get 3K hits, but Old Raines was a lot more productive than Old Biggio was.

I also think there's something to be said for "spanning different eras" ... a LOT of 80's stars (hitters and pitchers) couldn't adjust to the 90's style of play and pretty much vanished. Very few guys continued to make an impact well into the 90's, and those who did (Ripken, Larkin, Ozzie Smith, Gwynn) are usually the elite players (by definition, I guess).

Well I was looking at WARP3 when I was trying to evaluate Raines contribution, which is supposed to adjust for the offensive/defensive era and all that, not so much at Raines raw stats. And like I said Raines WARP3 looks very good for about 6 years (and by very good I mean 9-11 for most of those years which is really very special). Otherwise though he's mostly in 5/6 or so win range which is good, but not truly anything to write home about.

I think it's hard to argue that Raines wasn't better offensive producer than Biggio, BUT I think that comparison only works if you ignore the fact that Biggio adequately played a (couple of) premium defensive positions and Raines basically only played LF (also just adequately AFAICT--although this is where the DTs get goofy cuz they are all over the place on Raines defensive prowess.)

goose

tommy john, trammell, dawson, goose

i saw rijo when he came up with the yankees. they could have started winning a few years earlier in the 90s if they hadnt given up on some of the pitchers they did (rijo, al leiter, doug drabek)

bob tewksbury, that's the other one i was trying to think of

Pick ONLY ONE: Black speed demons of the '80s

-- Andy K

aren't you forgetting something?

• Dr. Morbius

-- gabbneb

bert blyleven continues to be jobbed

big jump for blyleven, dawson, and rice in % though. rice will get in next year with henderson, and i wouldn't be surprised to see dawson and blyleven the year after that based on their pretty sizable vote increases.

though it all depends on who's going to appear on the ballots over the next several years, too. who are the next shoo-ins after rickey?

I'm all for Blyleven, but Raines getting only 24% is just pathetic!

ok i found a list of upcoming eligibles:

2009: Steve Avery, Jay Bell, Mike Bordick, John Burkett, David Cone, Ron Gant, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Charles Nagy, Denny Neagle, Jesse Orosco, Dean Palmer, Dan Plesac, Rick Reed, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Williams, Mike Williams

2010: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile

2011: Wilson Alvarez, Carlos Baerga, Jeff Bagwell, Bret Boone, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Juan Gonzalez, Marquis Grissom, Mike Hampton, Al Leiter, Tino Martinez, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, John Olerud, Rafael Palmeiro, Benito Santiago, Ugueth Urbina, Larry Walker

2012: Vinny Castilla, Bill Mueller, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Bernie Williams, Tim Worrell

i count one definite hall of famer, one very likely, and four maybes.

Henderson and Alomar and a whole bunch of other shit?

bagwell, mcgriff, larkin, martinez (taking into account their chances being affected positively or negatively by the steroids stuff). mcgriff is a weird case because i figure people tab him as a player who hung around a year or two too long and never made a big impression, but he is also tabbed as being clean. it could affect his chances, not that i think he'll actually get in.

yeah i don't know larkin's no.'s off the top of my head, but I seem to remember him being borderline.

also, who voted for harold baines and who continues to vote for don mattingly.

McGriff deserves it even if you don't take steroid speculation into consideration. Still, he probably won't make it.

McGriff doesn't get in my HOF.

Rice very likely to go in w/ Rickey. I'm not sure that even Alomar will get in on the first ballot, he fell off so fast in his ignominious Mets period.

plus i bet some people remember his spitting more than his hitting

Peter (Albany): Rob, congratulations, you are the most feared chatter of your era. I was looking at the ESPN ballots, and almost all of them included Rice. But almost none for Dale Murphy...don't they have the same argument. Great peak, short career, except Murph played defense

Rob Neyer: (3:19 PM ET ) Yeah. Though Murphy wasn't lucky enough to play half his games in Fenway Park. Really, there's no excuse voting for one but not the other, and when you consider defense Murphy was *clearly* the more valuable player, over the course of his career. It's not close.

That turf in St. Louis was crazy, those guys adding in Willie McGee and Tommy Herr could infield single teams to death.

Coleman would probably agree about the turf having a major impact on his career :( I am pretty sure he tore up the SB's in the minors too though fwiw.

<i>plus i bet some people remember his spitting more than his hitting</i>

yeah but he and hirchbeck made up and made a joint charity or some shit and became bff, of the non-steroids variety

this guy didn't make it:

http://www.myspace.com/hotstott

THANK U JAY JAFFE FOR ALL THIS INFO ON BP

lexomatic (busybeeland): who do you see as the next candidate undeservedly snubbed by the bbwaa for not understanding their value on the field? also: how long do you think the Mcgwire punishment vote lasts? thanks for answering my last question

Jay Jaffe: Looking at the upcoming eligibles, I see trouble ahead for Roberto Alomar (105.0 JAWS, where the 2B benchmark is at 101.7) and Barry Larkin (96.7, where the SS benchmark is at 96.6). They're on the ballot in two years, as is Edgar Martinez (85.5, where the HOF hitter benchmark is 93.2 - i.e., his case will be easier to understand).

As for the punishment vote, it may last his entire 20 years on the ballot. The BBWAA voters aren't exactly known to forget a grudge, and let's not forget the energy many of them expended building McGwire a rather large pedestal. Mike Lupica, please pick up the white paging phone...

see, of those guys, i can see how in a writer's mind, barry larkin gets extra points for spending his entire career on one time and winning all those gold glove awards. i mean, the gold glove is kind of meaningless, but it makes it doubly so if they elect to give it to him and then give it no creedence, y'know?

Shawn Dunston has been out of the game for five years? Where does the time go?

Agreed re: Raines getting hosed badly

Come 2009, Jim Rice can thank steroids for his election to the HOF, as the writers continue their crusade against evil drug users by electing power hitters from past eras.

2010 will be interesting. Probably only one of Alomar, Larkin, and Edgar Martinez will get in, and I wouldn't be shocked if none of them do, owing to the mutual competition and the fact that none of them are big, "inner circle"-type names. McGriff has no shot in that year or in any other -- he's the Harold Baines of power hitters.

Probably only one of Alomar, Larkin, and Edgar Martinez will get in

(I'm just referring to 2010 here ... I think they will all eventually get in)

lol at Mike Hampton's coming eligibility.

Larry Walker ... any chance? The Coors effect obviously hurts him, but his WARP3 numbers were just as good in Montreal, and for a few years he was arguably the best player in baseball. He was hurt a lot, but was outstanding when he was in the lineup (right up until the end of his career), and was a five-tool player. Lots of health-related what-ifs ... the Mickey Mantle of the 90's?

his career BA splits are pretty crazy. he did have pretty even splits when he won the mvp (and hit 29 of his 49 HR on the road that year!) but he had some other years where he hit like .270 on the road and .410-.430 at coors. i think that might kill his chances.

Amazing factoid (from Peter Morris of SABR): only 3 pitchers born since 1947 have been elected to the HOF, all primarily relievers -- Eck, Gossage, Sutter.

That's about change very quickly though. . .

Unless Maddux, Glavine, Martinez, and Johnson's trainers are BIG MOUTHS that is.

And none of those guys have retired yet! We might not see another pitcher in the hall of fame for 5+ years unless the Blylevenophobes come to their senses.

what happens with Palmeiro?

(LOL)