Kickass Baseball Media 2008

file under "oof"

lol

geez, Goldman just had thyroid surgery.

DokLivy (Austin, TX): Rany, is there ANY hope for the national league? I've been a Cardinal fan for 30 years and it kills me how much talent leaves the league to play for the larger payroll teams in the American. It's not like the National League is a small market league. New York. Chicago. LA. Phoenix. Houston. Atlanta.

Rany Jazayerli: The imbalance between the leagues today reminds me of an essay Bill James wrote in one of his Abstracts in the mid-80s, back when the AL West was (in his words) the "Third World" of baseball. His point was that teams have an incentive to build to their competition. If you think 85 wins is all it will take to make the playoffs (hello, NL Central), you're best served by making decisions that maximize your chances to reach 85 wins, even if they reduce your chance at 95 wins.

In other words, NL teams know they don't have to compete with the Red Sox or the Yankees (at least until they get steamrolled in the World Series), so they don't feel the need to expand their payroll to nine figures or go way over slot to sign draft picks. Which means we're not likely to see a change in the AL's dominance for some time to come.

Although I usually hate "LOL NL CENTRAL" pieces, this is kind of true. But it has a big hole -- it's kind of dumb to assume that every team can afford nine figures' worth of payroll and that the ones who can't are just lazy or afraid. Especially coming from a Royals fan!

well, I think he's specifically talking about teams who could re 9 figures.

(do you really think Jazayerli thinks the Pirates are keeping under $100M out of laziness?)

Well you might be right. In fact, you probably are. BUT IT KILLS ME TO SAY THAT.

:)

don't know if this qualifies as kick-ass but it's just kind of interesting, from Dave Studeman's column in today's The Hardball Times:

"In one feature of the Season Preview, we simulated the 2008 season 100 times to try to predict how it will play out. Our projected standings not only give each team’s predicted win total, but also its probability of making the playoffs. With the caveat that we ran the numbers before the Santana trade, only four teams missed the playoffs in all 100 simulations.

That indicates a fantastic amount of parity in the MLB, and portends an exciting—and, despite our best efforts, sometimes unpredictable—season ahead."

Sorry, that's David Gassko not Studemann.

Okay this article is all kinds of amazing: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3243227&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos1

Unless you're a Padres fan! :(

But it's so sympathetic to the Padres, esp the owners and poor ol' Trevor Hoffman, whom I admire so much more now than I ever did before. What a mensch!

Wow!

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-02-19-3622276460_x.htm

"Pence said he was in a hot tub at the home where he's staying and got out to use the bathroom. He had left the door open, but didn't noticed that a friend had just closed it. He hit it with his shoulder, leg and head and it shattered."

lolol

looks like someone was having a soak n' toke!

very Martin Sheen in Saigon

The NYT article on Johan Santana's changeup is fairly interesting, but it's the detailed diagrams linked on the left, under "A Study in Stealth" that are kickass.

You’re wasting your time, Rick Morrissey! The more you ignore PECOTA, the closer it gets.

The heart bars are a nice touch, too.

Chris O'Leary's Evaluation of the Pitching Mechanics of SI.com's Baseball's Top 20 Young Pitchers for 2008

Excellent stuff.

6. Francisco Liriano: Oh the humanity! Such incredible, historic statistics. Such crappy mechanics. He's also one reason why I hate the slider.

Back to the photo.

This is a very generic view that tells us little to nothing about the root cause of his elbow problems.

Looks like he's throwing a change-up. Notice the 3 fingers + thumb on the ball. The only thing that's a little funky about this photo is how he seems to be falling off to the Third Base side at the release point. That may be due to the tremendous horizontal forces he generates due to his (really bad) arm action. By the time this photo has been taken, most of the really bad stuff has already happened. I give him a year before his arm rips apart at the shoulder.

Such a waste.

I'm totally not sold on Chris O'Leary's analysis, especially in this case--for half the photos he admits that there's nothing interesting to glean about the mechanics! He's got one or two very specific things he hates and no baseball credentials to speak of. He's very thorough with his photo analysis but there are plenty of differing opinions out there on mechanics. Carlos Gomez, for example, likes some stuff that O'Leary doesn't and got himself hired by an MLB team.

Goldman bullet-preview, picks Reds for 2nd!

http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080331&content_id=1440032&oid=36019&vkey=6

wrong thread

(not kickass but mildly amusing)

ESPN.com contributor Jim Baker's alternative Major League Baseball ’08 team slogans:

* White Sox: “Fix-free since 1919.”
* Cubs: “Tinkers to Ever to Not a (bleeping) Chance.”
* Astros: “Come watch the roof close!”
* Padres: “If games lasted seven innings, we’d be World Champions.”
* Yankees: (A tuxedo T-shirt) “We’ve spent $1.4 billion since 2001 and all we got was this lousy T-shirt.”
* Red Sox: “Your pity no longer required.”
* Indians: “Founded in 1901, lost since 1949.”
* Mariners: “Only 188 days until Richie Sexson’s contract expires.”
* Braves: (With tomahawk logo) “We put the die nasty in dynasty.”
* Marlins: “Where big leaguers make less than you do.”

Padres: “If games lasted seven innings, we’d be World Champions.

What's he got against Heath Bell?

Maybe he thinks Cla can't pla?

Joe Sheehan gives it up to Bruce Bochy:

"Bochy went from Rajai Davis against Heath Bell needing a single to Brian Bocock against Heath Bell needing a single, and wasted a player for the privilege."

Oh I really want to see a T-shirt saying "I was on the World Champion 1997 Florida Marlins and all I got was this lousy trade".

At least one for every no-hoper clubhouse in MLB.

and then you have mike piazza who actually got traded TO the 98 marlins

". . . and all we got was a Lousy 1-tool Catcher"

Eric, Boston: The number of "black" MLB players drops to 8 percent. Or should it be the number of "black" MLB players skyrockets with the Latin influx in to the game? Or even better: Who cares? If David Ortiz and Alphonso Soriano are not black, then who is? I guarantee you they would qualify as "black" in any other situation (grants, the census, etc). Don't like the term "black"? then African American makes it even more obvious. If your ancestors came over on a big ship in chains from Africa then who cares whether your birth certificate is from the Dominican or Milwaukee?

Rob Neyer: (12:12 PM ET ) I'm on your side, Eric, and I would blog about this except I'm trying to steer clear of sensitive subjects for the moment (don't ask). The whole thing is distasteful and, I worry, counter-productive.... I think we should allow kids to play the games they want to play, and not attribute their choices to some spectral, non-specific prejudices.

Wow.

Um shouldn't that be on the Dumbass thread?

Seriously.

If David Ortiz and Alphonso Soriano are not black, then who is?

Not crazy about the phrasing of the question, but the hue-and-cry about who's playing what has always puzzled me. (especially after 3 hrs of Joe Morgan saying a whole lot of not-very-much during the Civil Rights Game)

yeah why is it distasteful, counterproductive or indicative of any kind of prejudice anywhere to point out that fewer black americans are playing baseball than ever

morbius its about mlb & baseball not reaching a big segment of the american populace, which i think is a problem worth trying to correct

I would be concerned with their efforts to make the game appealing to black fans at least as much as to develop more MLB-caliber black American ballplayers.

exactly? is not really obvious that the two go hand-in-hand?

I don't get that. Why just black Americans, not all Americans?

xp

because weve been seeing a long & steady decline in baseballs popularity among black americans at the exact same time were seeing a long & steady upswing in baseballs popularity w/ americans on the whole

I see Neyer's point about "sensitive subjects"

I think we should allow kids to play the games they want to play, and not attribute their choices to some spectral, non-specific prejudices.

I thought it was a commonly-understood point that it's very difficult for a lot of African-American kids to play baseball, even if they want to. Is that bullshit? Neyer is usually on the ball and I'm genuinely confused by this.

declineinafricanamericansplayingbaseballvsrisein_athletic_quarterbacks.xls

i dunno what the fuck he's on about CoD, his argument for why mlb has isolated 1/3 of america seems to be that 'kids will be kids' or something, which...how do you even start w/ that, really

what do studies show? is it more an issue of access to facilities, or indifference to the sport?

In other occupations where race discrimination has played a factor, studies usually show it is a combination of subtle institutional discrimination + a lack of mentoring. Proponents of such studies argue that the disproportionate statistics can only be explained by discrimination.

In a field where a player has to advance through many levels and many decision-makers before reaching the MLB level, perhaps there is something to it. I wonder what the numbers are for the minor league levels.

Well, here's Joe Sheehan.

its not specifically about racism, preference, or access, its about all those things, though institutional ignorance played a far larger part in getting baseball to where it is now among blacks than racism did, imo.

this is all common sense stuff to me but anyway:

-kids idolize & want to emulate people they see on tv & there are fewer black baseball players for black kids to want to idolize or emulate than ever before
-basketball & football are both far simpler sports than baseball, in that in football, just about any particularly remarkable physical specimen has a chance to succeed, & will likely as not be noticed & set on the path to do as much. basketball requires more finesse, but can be played in just about any environment with a ball & a hoop, & can be played alone, with friends, or by walking into the middle of a pickup game. baseball requires lots of space, multiple players, & caters to a unique skill set that literally cant be properly quantified or eyeballed unless the athlete is actually playing the sport, & has been playing it for awhile, & has been coached in some fashion. so while with football a dude can say "im fast/strong, i should play football", & while basketball offers plenty of opportunities for anyone to refine necessary skills almost literally anytime, baseball ideally needs some kind of structure set from above early on if kids are gonna have the fullest opportunities to succeed at it
-and this structure is sewn into the fabric of much of white america to the point that its just sort of what you -do-, as a 6 year old kid, you play tball, then little league, etc. 99% of these kids are shed off down the road due to lack of talent or interest but baseball has become a part of them, & a spark can reignite dormant passions at any time

the problem goes from the very top down & from the very bottom up both; thats why i say it all goes hand-in-hand. but mlb cant control how many black players are currently in the bigs, or will be anytime soon - its up to them to do their best to make sure urban areas receive the proper coaching, facilities, equipment, etc, to give kids there the same opportunity to both succeed at & love the sport as any hick from nebraska already gets.

i can only guess that neyer/sheehan view this kind of attitude as either paternalistic or exploitative or both as i genuinely have no idea why we 'shouldnt care' about this issue (sheehans article is gay-for-pay so i cant read it). i think its both sensible & fair & i truly dont see who doesnt benefit from it, aside from non african-american professional baseball players, i guess.

thank you.

You know what, you (expletive)? You come in here. Yeah, I know I’m 40, or 39, or whatever years old, I know you think you can get it in. But I’m looking in here. You throw that first-pitch heater in here, and I’m gonna turn on it.

“You know, uh, you know uh, uh, I don’t know,”

That's a great Tino Martinez impersonation right there.

Closing, "the most overrated position in sports":

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080805

2002 called. They want their article back.

i wish closers as they exist now would kind of dry up and vanish.

esp if their names rhyme with Shmilly Bagner

for J the Mod -- Jonah Keri on why K-Rod shouldn't be MVP, and the least deserving MVPs of all time:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=krod/080805&sportCat=mlb

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=keri/080805

those are likely better but the idea that k-rod should be mvp should really be a non-starter to begin with. I didn't read the caple article (i saw it on the front bb pange) and I was like, 'that's what ya boy epstein was trying to tell you, dipshits.

The Tigers would gladly accept someone who can, with some regularity, pitch in the ninth (or 14th) without giving up a run. (Or would they?)

Alex (Houston): Would Bonds be a good fit for the Stros the rest of this season?

Joe Sheehan: They're playing Ty Wigginton in left field, and Geoff Blum is getting the extra ABs. Forget any kind of warmup, sign Bonds, start him tonight, and he'd be better than those choices.

But winning doesn't matter as much as perpetuating the myth. Say, did anyone see that Paul Lo Duca is back in the majors?

wow, that WAS kickass.

We know that the Mets' bullpen loses games. That's been the story all season long. However, losing a game when you allow two tenth-inning home runs to Brad Ausmus (number two on the season) and Darin Erstad (number three) is not only a new low, it might be an all-time low. To use a spectacularly geeky analogy, this loss is tantamount to having your 12th-level magic-user killed by a "Black Pudding" in Dungeons & Dragons.

http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080520&content_id=1443601&oid=36019&vkey=6

D&D refs, I am disappointed (and happily uncomprehending)

i wasn't sure what board to post this on, but it's pretty amazing imo: roger ebert craps on jay mariotti

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080828/COMMENTARY/808289997

lol

http://www.google.com/search?q=jay+mariotti&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

(wikipedia blurb)

lol...

"Jay Mariotti - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jay Mariotti, a homosexual, (born 1959 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) was a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times until he resigned on August 26th, 2008. ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Mariotti - 65k - Cached - Similar pages - Note this"

cankles wept

His parents named him after a year?

:0 at Ebert pwning Mariotti

Casey, LA, CA: If people are going to play the "2nd half surge for a playoff team MVP talk" and are bringing up Delgado in the talk. What about Dr. DRE in LA or Manny? Both have a higher VORP than Mr. Delgado.

Keith Law: (1:06 PM ET ) The problem I have with that line of thinking - other than it being stupid - is that once you move into fungible criteria like that, you can slice it any way that suits your argument. Best second half? How about best two months? Best in games against contenders? Best on alternate Tuesdays? How about best for the WHOLE SEASON, people?

Anyone who doesn't vote for Pujols this year should have their cards pulled.
He even has a GREAT STORY! His arm might fall off any second!

Yeah, it really has to be Pujols. Last year I can understand voting for Holliday over Wright or etc., but this year is pretty cut-and-dried.

Sheehan last week:

I’m rooting for Carlos Delgado to win the NL MVP Award. It would, I hope, put an end to the BBRAA awards as a credible arbiter of such honors to have a player not half as good as the actual MVP, and playing alongside two clearly superior players in his own infield, walk away with the hardware. Go Carlos.

Saber guys whining about season awards is starting to get really sad.

Whining about "saber guys" who rail against the dipshitty herd that likes to award undeserving dudes with these awards is about as sad, tho.

They really don't obsess over it. That was one bullet point in the middle of a long JS column.

Unless you meant ME! (as I'm in SABR and I don't believe Sheehan is)

The MVP award is a joke because everyone votes by their own personal set of criteria. This is not news. I don't even see why it's worth getting passionate about until this changes. If Sheehan seriously thinks that there is an MVP choices that would make the masses rise up and revolt against the BBWAA or something he's kidding himself. We had this discussion when Rollins won. We had this discussion when Morneau won. BPro should make its own awards if it knows what a "credible arbiter" would do.

And no Morb I did not mean you. Is Pujols your pick?

yes.

BP is pretty closely linked to the Internet Baseball Awards.

HINDER '05

see:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/iba/

delgado won't win, not as long as ryan howard is carrying the phillies!~

If anyone other than Pujols wins it will be the worst vote since ________.

but Berkman has more Win Shares?

(I have never understood WS)

Nobody has.

My vote would be for Barry Lamar Bonds.

Pujols is leading Berkman in every traditional metric (AVG, OBP, SLG) plus EQA, VORP, WARP and is comparable in all the defensive metrics as far as I can tell (at least BPs and Hardball Times.) There is only about a 30 PA difference between them at this point (although 12 games more for Berkman). Win Shares is crazy.

Mike (Brooklyn, NY): Keith - big fan of your work. What possess the Wilpons to give Minaya an extension?! His record screams "mediocrity." Thanks for Castillo Omar.

Keith Law: (1:22 PM ET ) Talk about tone-deaf ... why exactly did this extension have to be done now? Was Omar going somewhere next week? Was he secretly taking the Seattle job? The Wilpons sort of gave the middle finger to their fans. I'm not saying Minaya was undeserving - he's done some very good things, landing some big-ticket players and committing more resources to Latin America (which is already paying off in their system) - but that's a definite PR FAIL giving him an extension during another late-season slide.

Jay Jaffe: At least with regards to first-round matchups, actual Won-Lost records are less predictive than Pythagorean records. Of the 100 first round contests (League Championship Series from 1969-1993 excluding 1981, and Division Series from 1995-2007), only 42 of them were won by the team with the better raw record. 49 of them were won by the team with the better Pythagorean (first-order) record, 47 by the team with the better third-order record. Limiting it to just the five-game series of the Wild Card era, the numbers are 24/52 for actual, 29/52 for first-order, and 26/52 for third-order. The take-home message is that short series are mostly tossups in which anything can happen, and that looking solely at teams' raw records (and probably head-to-head records) isn't a great way to judge these matchups.

Plz fwd to all TV color analysts (esp old pitchers):

Ted (Milwaukee): The old practice of starting pitchers pacing themselves, saving their best stuff for key situations -- to what extent is it still around, given five-man rotations and seven- and eight-man bullpens?

Joe Sheehan: It's not, and what you describe is more an effect than a cause. Pitchers can't save their best stuff when every hitter they face is a threat to hit the ball out of the park. This is the single biggest reason why the never-ending comparisons to pitchers of the 1960s and 1970s are wildly invalid, and the point can't be made often enough or strongly enough. In those eras, teams had 2-4 guys in EVERY lineup who couldn't drive the ball. Now everyone can, so pitchers can't just downshift some of the time. That's why no one goes nine any longer--it takes the same amount of effort to go six or seven now as it did to go nine or more back then.

I thought Gammons was pretty on the money here:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3642992&name=gammons_peter

BOSTON -- Joe Maddon never whined about being in the jungle land with the New York and Boston money, or with Toronto's consistent strength. "I embraced it," he says, "because it forced us to deal with reality, forced us to have to play tough, forced us to make hard decisions, forced us to grow up fast."

So when Matt Garza dominated the Red Sox on Monday night at Fenway and the Rays hit four home runs to take a 2-1 lead in the ALCS, the point had been reached at which the novelty had worn off, where the Bad News Rays were no more. "We know what we have to do and just do it," said Evan Longoria, matter-of-factly.

Because the fact is that being up on the defending world champions is not hitting the lottery. OK, the Rays won three fewer games than the Angels, but L.A. played 57 games against AL West teams that were a combined 55 games under .500 and outscored by 250 runs. Tampa Bay won more games in its division (43) than any team in baseball, and was 28-26 against the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays, who were a combined 54 games over .500. This team that hadn't won a series at Fenway Park in the 21st century not only went into Fenway the first week of September in a fight for the AL East title and won two out of three, but beat the Red Sox two out of three in Tampa Bay the next week to win the season series and finish first.

So, for a moment, put aside the embarrassing clown who is shown on the Trop message board teaching people how to use to their cowbells, or the tacky "Scream for your team" message. This is all new. Look away from the harsh realities facing the Red Sox -- Josh Beckett having two swings-and-misses at his fastballs in the postseason; Jon Lester hitting the wall Monday 67 innings past his career high; the offensive problems of David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jason Varitek.

The Tampa Bay Rays were the best team in the American League, if not the major leagues, during the regular season. In Longoria, B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, they have very good and borderline great young players. They have the best defense in baseball. They outhomered the Red Sox, despite the injuries to Pena, Longoria and Crawford. Their starters' ERA was second behind only the Blue Jays, their relievers' ERAs was behind only Toronto and Oakland; their save percentage was better than the Red Sox; and in the postseason, the bullpen's ERA is 1.57 and has held opponents to 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position.

"We believe we're a pretty good team," Pena says. "Better than some people think." Well, once the Red Sox let them off the hook in Game 2 and Lester's velocity dropped five miles an hour in the second inning Monday, even the hardest of the New England Red Sox diehards began thinking about it.

"[The Red Sox] are really good," Longoria says. "They are the world champions. They have come back in many series in the past [such as 0-3 to the Yankees and 1-3 to the Indians in their last two ALCS runs]. But I don't think you see any sense of panic in us. We know we belong."

"I think this is where the division helps us," Maddon says. "We have to play tough, grinding games all season. We play in tense, filled parks like Fenway and Yankee Stadium, and all season we had to play those teams to get this opportunity. Playing those guys, playing in those parks force young players to grow up in a hurry."

So while the Rays haven't experienced being down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004 or 1-3 to the Indians last October, they have had to experience the edge of Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium. And after beating Lester on Monday night, they had won three straight in the Fens: two in late September for the division title, one in the ALCS. They lost the first game of this series and had to face Beckett and Lester …

And went up 2-1.

Are the Red Sox whole? No. Ortiz's bad wrist severely limits his power, and his best bolts come down with topspin. Last year's World Series MVP, Mike Lowell, is out. J.D. Drew's back is not right. Beckett insists he is fine because he never makes an excuse for anything, but even if all the shots he took for his oblique have quelled the pain, he is in the early stages of spring training, searching for power and command, and 18 hits, 12 runs, five homers and two fastball swings-and-misses in two starts are not normal Josh Beckett numbers.

But Crawford's finger isn't right. Upton needs to have an offseason operation on his left shoulder. No one says anything about Scott Kazmir, but he's throwing 88 with no breaking ball. Troy Percival had to be held off the roster.

"There is a long way to go yet," says Garza, who threw 94-96 mph Monday night for six innings and appears on the brink of being an elite power pitcher. "We know that. They are very tough."

Next, Tim Wakefield, who will lay his soul on the field. Then Daisuke Matsuzaka, who looked like the reincarnation of Greg Maddux when he cranked out his two-seamer in Game 1. Then Beckett and Lester again.

Then the cowbells, the Mohawks and the guy on the board screaming in Tampa Bay, all of which disguises that the Rays should be in a position where they can win the American League pennant. These are not the '85 Royals or '87 Twins; these are the guys who grew up on the mean streets of the American League East, and for the six-month regular season were the best team in the American League.

EricN Erie, CO: What are those rope thingies that some of the guys (e.g., Lester) wear around their necks? They look heavy and stiff.

Rob Neyer: (12:29 PM ET ) They're made of titanium, and developed by the same people who brought you Scientology and Intelligent Design. I'm sure they make a real difference on the field, and I'm surprised that every player doesn't wear them.

(when he feels like it, Neyer can outsnark KLaw)

they are Phiten from JAPAN! they've been around for a whilesies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phiten

"We're being sold!!! To the Konishi Toy Museum in TOKYO!!!"

It's a bit of an overstatement to say that every hitter these days is a threat to hit the ball out of the park., but Sheehan's main point seems otherwise dead-on. (half a dozen xposts or so)

"drive the ball" ≠ "hit the ball out of the park"

I'm trying to pinpoint when I began to hate Joe Sheehan... hmmm.