Are 9 of the 10 postseason teams of 2013 already known to us?

havent scrutinized standings but i sorta think boston will not have a great 2nd half. also, tx very possibly

I was going to ask if both wild-cards can come from the same division, but the list answers that...I guess Tampa Bay--I could see Texas/Oakland and Baltimore finishing ahead of them.

lol no

mathematically the answer is "almost certainly no", in Bill Simmons talk its "some team always collapses, some team always gets hot".

though I do think the Red Sox are making it. by WAR they're the top offense and 3rd best in pitching. I don't get it either.

some folks have just gone off the deep end with projection-mania, come on now

if 9 teams have a 90% chance of making it, there's a less than 40% chance that they all will.

I voted no just on instinct, but yeah, should have thought of that. I went to their page, and all nine teams multiply to just over 22%. Also, and I know I'm foolishly wading into "That can't be right, Nate Silver" territory here (he was originally a BP guy, right?), but Tampa Bay at 73.6%, the Yankees at 31.8%, and the Orioles at 24.2% strikes me as pretty stark for three teams separated by 2.5 games on July 12.

AL East and NL Central seem competitive and subject to streakiness on all parties involved.. NL West could be up in the air if the Dodgers get even more injuries but I dont know how thats even possible after what happened the first 2 months.

Reds are really struggling playing under .500 ball for like 5-6 weeks now. They could get hot again, but right now they don't seem like a playoff team to me. They need a right handed bat and some of the pitchers to get healthy stat.

Bill Simmons talk not allowed btw

I think it's very possible Washington eclipses one of the Central teams.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

the pirates are the most vulnerable, of course

as Neyer points out, NL is essentially over except who gets the division crown in the Central

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/8/13/4618900/national-league-pennant-races-central-pirates-cardinals-reds

tampa looking shaky

nobody sees a Central team being edged out by Arizona as being more than a 10% shot, do they?

Tampa def seem to be playing their worst right now, but don't know that I can see Baltimore, Indians or the Royals passing them.

main race in the NL is for best record. could be close finishes between ATL-PIT-LAD

I still think all 9 of these are finishing in the money.

Neyer ponders which near-dead team can make a run:

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/8/30/4675008/which-also-ran-has-the-best-shot-at-a-september-run

Suddenly both TB and Texas on the verge of blowing it! Six teams within 2 games for the AL WCs.

Yeah AL WC and who wins NLC is only drama left.

I guess potentially still some drama in ALW.

You guys are underselling the AL, there are four teams within two games of TB for the second wildcard, and Texas isn't that far ahead of them (assuming they don't come back to win the the ALW, which could still happen).

I guess Morbs just wrote the same thing, but basically we're in for a crazy last couple of weeks. Not bad considering the AL looked like a snoozefest about three weeks ago.

The amazing thing is that two months ago, when the thread was started, the Dodgers had the slimmest lead and the least secure odds of making the postseason, and now they have the largest lead.

Which at the time seemed a lot more unlikely than one of the original nine teams blowing their playoff spot.