sabermetrics & stat analysis 2008

Bill James on 60 Minutes tonight.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/27/60minutes/main3974752.shtml

Footage of Weaver walking someone, losing composure, LOL

is that guy yr hero, morbs? it was an interesting piece.

^^Bill James 60 Minutes piece is on right now on the West Coast.

Yes, tell us Morbs (a) Bill James or (b) Tom Tango.

a or b

I don't know who b is, and I was in a train station during 60 mins.

Tom Tango = TangoTiger, a sabermagician (formerly?) for The Hardball Times, whose work is referenced from time to time by BP and other places.

I don't look at Hardball Times very often. And if a piece is solely about metric math, I usually don't read the whole thing.

Yeah, I only really know the name -- the few times I've visited THT, the writing on the stat pieces really turned me off. They did used to post pieces about pitchers' mechanics written by Carlos Gomez (yes, not the prospect) that were excellent, tho. They were good enough, in fact, that he's now scouting for the Diamondbacks! Here's a page w/ links to his work.

I don't know who b is, and I was in a train station during 60 mins.

-- Dr Morbius, Monday, March 31, 2008 6:32 AM (5 hours ago) Bookmark Link

Dear Statheads:

Please post the names of better sabermetricists and statisticians here ↓

Voros McCracken

DIPS LIPS POWER

Vörös McCracken announces new, park-adjusted fielding metric.

d'oh. good one.

funny thing is, voros mcracken totally sounds like a made up name.

Sometimes I think Morbius is not a real doctor.

who is your insurer?

I was kinda startled that Neyer (I think) said in a recent chat that "most of the work has been done" re quantifying defense! Is this commonly believed?

Sorry j.q. I must have gotten mixed up. Apparently this McCracken guy does soccer stuff too.

and is of no relation to the famed quinton mccracken.

Someone should Bermanize all the stat gurus.

Apparently this McCracken guy does soccer stuff too.

as does Mr. Billy Beane.

Voros is a self-appointed nickname.

Morbs, the defense work is done but it is not available to the general public (well, unless you want to donate a couple million to STATS, Inc.)

I read WikiGonzalez.com also.

I understand his discovery of DIPS is a quant achievement on the scientific level of Copernicus, Gallileo and Newton. But has McCracken done anything significant since his DIPS?

Other than admittedly successfully isolating the "fun" variable out of the baseball equation until recently.

James is/was a Huckabee man. > <

Wiki González

Vörös McCracken . . . is also a heartthrob whose disturbing photograph on his author page drew thousands, if not millions, of hits per year.

bannister shut out the tigers last night! i love this dude.

Bill James interviewed at the Times' Freakonomics blog:

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/01/bill-james-answers-all-your-baseball-questions/

Q: Are there any baseball rules either in the game itself or for the leagues that you think ought to be changed, removed, or added to increase the entertainment value of the sport?

A: Many, actually. My pet project is a rule to limit pitching changes in the late innings. My rule, specifically, would be this:

1) Each team is entitled to one unrestricted pitching change per game.

2) With the exception of that one unrestricted change, no pitcher may be removed from the game in mid-inning unless he has been charged with allowing a run in that inning. With an exception for injuries, of course.

When you propose a rules change like that, people say, “Oh, you’re changing the way the game has always been.” That’s nonsense. In 1970 major league teams used 1.75 relievers per game. In 1990 they used 2.02 relievers per game, and in 2007 they used 2.97 per game — and the rate of increase in this area is still accelerating.

I’m not trying to change the game with this rule; I’m trying to stop a change in the game that is running amok. There are actually many rule changes like that which I would favor — rules designed to control changes in the game that are occurring, uncontrolled, at a breakneck pace.

Q: Do you feel, given the right personnel, that some teams should try a four man rotation. If not, why not? If so, which team do you think is best suited and why?

A: I think it is plausible that that could happen and could succeed. I would explain my feelings about it this way: that between 1975 and 1990, two changes were made to reduce the workload of starting pitchers in an effort to reduce injuries. First, we switched from a four-man to a five-man rotation. Second, we imposed pitch-count limits on starting pitchers, starting at about 140 and then gradually reducing that to about 110.

I think it is clear that at least one of those changes was unnecessary, and accomplished nothing. It is possible that both of them were unnecessary and accomplished nothing, but the better evidence is on the side of the pitch limits. I think it is possible, based on what I know, that the starting rotations could go back to four pitchers with no negative consequences.

Q: Is clutch hitting a repeatable/retain-able skill?

A: I don’t know.

A: Many, actually. My pet project is a rule to limit pitching changes in the late innings. My rule, specifically, would be this

You could just mandate that a pitcher has to face at least two batters.

My brother's two BTF friends went out for a beer with Voros McCracken last week.

i played racquetball w/ voros mccracken this morning.

not really.

It would definitely be good if you could get him out for some exercise.

(BTW I advocate exercise for everyone, not just those of us who are a tad zaftig.)

actually j.q. are "you" a McCracken sockpuppet?

I don't think "you" ever put "your" Cubs Spring Training pics up.

sabermetric suzy

eXXactly. :)

Did I ever tell you about the time . . .

I got George Will to autograph a copy of Men at Work to my brother for his birthday at a book signing in Harvard Square? True story.

Anyway, not to derail, I kind of worry about VMcC. He sounded sad that he hasn't really come up with the follow-up to DIPS. Maybe if we namedrop him a lot he will come to the board and we can all work together.

oh, man...

george will lives next door to one of my best friend's parents. when he has his opening day party, they have a party mocking george will and his guests. pretty amusing.

does GW know about it?

i don't think he much cares. my friend's dad is big labor lawyer, will lives on one side of him and richard perle on the other. the neighborhood tension is palpable.

More Bannister porn: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/larrystone/2004360912_stone20.html

He really is pretty awesome to listen to talk.

On February 3, 2010, Deep Focus, Inc. withdrew its application to trademark the term “sabermetrics” for social media consulting services.

Sabermetrics was coined by statistician Bill James, who first introduced the word to readers of his Abstract in March 1980, writing: “Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records.” Since that time, sabermetrics has become a ubiquitous part of the baseball landscape at all levels and by players, front office staff, the media, and fans alike. Most major league teams use sabermetrically derived statistics as part of their player evaluations. Members of the Baseball Writers Association of America and others who report on baseball refer to sabermetrics and its metrics on a regular basis. Recently James has said that sabermetrics is a “declaration of no ownership of knowledge.”

“SABR appreciates that Deep Focus has seen the value of keeping the term ‘sabermetrics’ in the public domain,” said Executive Director John Zajc. “We now understand that there was no intent to restrict free use of the word, and we are glad that they respect that free use of the word benefits everyone.”

“The intent to use the term ‘sabermetrics’ was solely to describe our approach to evaluating engagement within social media, and not to own the term outright. In no way did we mean to restrict others’ use of the word,” said Deep Focus’ CEO Ian Schafer. “We are fans of the game and fans of the sabermetric approach of statistical evaluation. We owe great thanks to Bill James and other sabermetricians for inspiring us to think more objectively about performance.”

Whoa, you can look at a player's "HR log" on Baseball Reference now -- when did they start posting these? This stuff is awesome ... check out Junior Griffey's log, for instance:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?t=b&n1=griffke02

Random freaky stats: 52 HR hit on the 6th pitch of the AB, 40 HR hit to left-centre, 120 HR hit to right-centre, 26 HR with runners on 1st-3rd ... you could go crazy studying all this!

Lots of game situation stats too (HR when leading/tied/behind, by inning, by score, etc.) ... cue up a million arguments about "clutchiness".

holy shit, they logged each individual one!

I'm pretty sure the HR log has been there for at least a couple years, though it wasn't as in-depth -- just the "play-by-play" section, I think?

http://msn.foxsports.com/video?vid=25789e2d-f44b-452b-a90d-86baa273c81e&from=IV2_en-us_foxsports_cp_mlb

Bowden interviews GMs about modern stats. Very weird.

i think my junior high school public access channel had better editing and we were dealing with film, not digital.

guys i made a fancy undated rolling thread for this stuff:

rolling sabermetrics and statistics thread