Logjam at Second Base

If you want to make WAR the final arbiter, it's Whitaker. If you use WAR as more of a general guide, it's very close:

Whitaker -- 74.8
Grich -- 71.0
Sandberg -- 67.6
Alomar -- 66.8
Biggio -- 64.9

The two guys on top, of course, the two who can now only go in the real HOF via special committee.

roberto alomar is in already

as is sandberg

oic, nm

grich for the anti-HOF points and bc oriole

I think the easy part is that Biggio was the least impressive player of the five (actually surprised that many people would be arguing for him). After that Whitaker very consistent but lowest peak value by far than other four which I think has to be a knock (10 year JAWs likes him but still lower than Sandberg and Grich). Alomar's peak also actually lower than I expected but a lot of that is obviously that all the new defensive metrics hate him. I'm inclined to think based on my memories and the hardware he might have been at least a little better than those numbers credit him for--it's barely enough that based on peak value I'd edge him over Whitaker. Sandberg has the hardware, but Grich was slightly better at his best and for longer (based on all the era/park adjusted numbers) so overall I'm inclined to go:

1) Grich
2) Sandberg
3) Alomar
4) Whitaker
5) Biggio

I've voted for Alomar virtually every round since he came on the ballot, but I know my bias figures in heavily. (The bias of having seen him a lot as much as the bias of being a Jays fan--he was here for a relatively brief time, but I watched a lot of games back then.) The one thing that always bothered me about Sandberg was his pronounced home-road split:

Home: .300/.361/.491
Away: .269/.326/.412

Those away stats are very ordinary. But I realize his prime was mostly spent in a pitcher's era.

Alomar went 6-6-6 in MVP voting while he was here. That can only mean one thing.

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I voted Alomar, but I thought for sure that Whitaker or Grich would win on here. Somewhat of an anti-sabermetric vote.

I think despite Grich's sabermetric bonafides the fact that most peope on this board didn't seem him play is bound to work against him.

True enough. Even though I watched a lot of baseball in the '70s--I mean, as much as was on TV then, which wasn't a lot--I doubt I saw him much either.

I think the easy part is that Biggio was the least impressive player of the five

Biggio at his peak may have been the best player in baseball ('96-'98) and that's significant, I think. Only Sandberg could make the same claim in this group. Grich gets a big boost in career value from defensive metrics which I'm not sure I trust based on data from the 70's. He drew a lot of walks but otherwise wasn't exactly HOF-level on offense (he didn't run well or get many XBH except for two or three years). Second base was basically a *very* weak position when he played so his WAR looks more impressive than it really should be (even though WAR makes some correction for historical norms). And I can't see anything he did that Whitaker didn't do better.

But you have to compare Biggio's numbers to the era. Taken in isolation they look amazing, but 96-98 was such an offensive boom that even Biggio's numbers probably put him outside of the top 5 best position players for that arbitrary three year period (and I'm not sure he was even best player on his own team).

Grich drew a LOT of walks, had decent pop for 2B and was by reputation and #s a stellar defender. I think main difference between he and Whitaker is that at his best Grich was a near MVP level caliber ballplayer (reflected in his peak value) whereas Whitaker was just very good for a very long time.

Even relative to his era, Biggio had a monster peak for a middle infielder.

I don't remember a thing about Grich's career so I could very well be misjudging how he was perceived in his time.

never realized how good he was at his peak. still not sure i would call it "monster" tho - just two season of over .900 OPS in the greatest hitting era of our generation.

but still - really really good. never noticed how many doubles he manged to hit.

Fifth all-time in doubles! Biggio's HOF case is a lot like Barry Larkin's -- he did everything well, more or less, and had a lot of consistently good to great seasons playing an up the middle position. And Bill James called him the best player in baseball in the late '90's in the updated Historical Abstract </clemenza>

Yes--knew he'd said that somewhere, couldn't remember where (I think he'd stopped putting out an annual by then).

I always think of Grich as one of the early sabermetric players, one of the guys James was all over in the first few Abstracts--Grich, Gene Tenace, Ken Singleton, Amos Otis--trying to make people aware how good they were, and knocking down Garvey, Gary Templeton, etc. I looked at a couple of old Zander Hollander guides for a more mainstream view of Grich, and couldn't find much:

('78 guide, just after he'd been signed by the Angels): "Another star-crossed Angel millionaire."

('79 guide): Another of the Angel's millionaire free-agents who has not yet lived up to expectations...Once regarded as one of the best players in the AL."

The key word being "once," I guess. I think there was always a vague feeling attached to Grich of not having lived up to advance notice out of the minors. (He was The Sporting News' Minor League Player of the Year in '71). By the time sabermetrics caught up with him, he was too late for the HOF.

I think this thread is definitely proving how difficult it is to separate these dudes.

Lol at </clemenza> btw.

Posnanski has Whitaker as 97th best player ever which seems pretty absurd to me.

calling biggio arguably the best player from 96-98 seems crazy to me, you know how many all-time greats were peaking then?

biggio was maybe the 10th best player over those years if we're being generous

Checked the biggest names from '96-98 for their cumulative WAR (position players only):

Bonds: 25.9
Griffey: 25.4
A-Rod: 23.5
Bagwell: 21.5

Biggio: 21.4

Piazza: 20.3
I-Rod: 19.0
McGwire: 19.0
Edgar: 18.2
Chipper: 17.1
Walker: 16.8
Thomas: 16.3
Larkin: 16.3
Thome: 16.3
Jeter: 15.8
Belle: 14.2
Manny: 14.1
Palmeiro: 13.9
Alomar: 12.5

Not #1, but pretty close. Undoubtedly I missed a couple of guys. If you add pitchers, #10 sounds about right.

Knoblauch from 95-97 had 22 WAR, but 98 was a down year for him.

Obvious pitchers were:
Brown
Clemens
Pedro
Maddux

Glavine on outside. Not sure anyone else had that peak.

So Pos has order as:

Whitaker (97)
Biggio (93)
Alomar (82)

Will be curious to see if Grich and/or Sandberg make it at all.

I think Grich will make it, Sandberg I don't know. I just posted a comment on the Alomar entry.

And there is Sandberg.

He kind of glides past (what is to me) Sandberg's significant home/road split. On the other hand, as Joe points out and as I said above, very much a pitcher's era ('87 excepted).