‹‹‹‹ 2022 NBA Finals ›‹ Celtics vs Warriors ›‹ The ILH Bowl ››››

i think the series will kinda have to not make much sense for the warriors to win kinda like the ECF if the heat had won. it’s gonna require some lapses from the celtics and some major individual performances from the warriors. i think the aggregate scoring and stats will prob favor the celtics but can the warriors have a few of those tidal wave quarters like the heat did to swing a few games (absolutely possible), get a 40 point game or two from someone to carry them (possible), just kinda championship experience their way to another win in a game the celtics more or less controlled? i’m having a hard time envisioning a series where at the end we’re just like, yep the warriors whipped the celtics and if they didn’t win the series it would’ve been a miscarriage of justice. but i can definitely see that being the case in reverse

i think a lot will depend on if the dubs supporting cast can hold up under the celtics pressure, memphis is the closest theyve seen to it but the griz were just too green

you know the dubs top three are gonna show up and if they dont its over anyway but all they guys after that could go either way

it is weird how many people ive seen acting like the warriors are strong favorites do they think it is still the same team as 2015 just becasue the main 3 guys are still there

something like that

celtics a lil underrated too, tho tbh theyve prob played down to that so far

yeah. these celtics are the cardiac kids. they almost threw away game 7. i hate to say it but i’m not sure they can keep it on lock no matter how well they play otherwise. their d is good enough to keep them close but are they going to forget how to play basketball or not, ihibidtae

this warriors iteration has similar stretches where it looks like they forgot basketball

basketball is hard tbf

this warriors iteration has similar stretches where it looks like they forgot basketball

― ciderpress, Monday, May 30, 2022 11:12 AM (twenty-three seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

they've always been a highwire act tbf.

steph and klay's shooting #s have both dropped to where they don't quite bury you in points anymore they're just normal good 3pt shooters instead of transcendent

seems like poole would have to play transcendently and looney be a huge force for the dubs to take this series. could happen

Turnovers will indeed be key. Dubs did great keeping them in check against Dallas. Tatum also leads all players in the postseason with turnovers.

GP2 will be an X factor

if iggy can play, boston will have fewer perimeter dudes to target 1-on-1 but yeah like you say Jordan those perimeter guys are the guys who score for you so

JJJ hit tons of 3s vs the Dubs … wonder if the Celts try letting Horford bomb away and also pull Looney/Dray away from the hoop.

JJJ and morant left open to shoot threes was the plan. not sure they want horford shooting those same shots

yeah hes happy to hoist if they let him

theres gonna be so much switching in this series hah

seems to be where the playoffs always ends up

dubs need to figure out a way to play rob off the court cos he was causing havoc around the rim last time they played. negated a lot of poole drives, similar to how jjj did. guarding poole with length seems to work well. both teams have good small ball lineups so it will be cool to see who gets the edge there.

OTM, Rob can give them hell. They haven't faced a player like him this playoffs.
Kuminga has had decent success guarding Tatum this season (small sample size obv) but he's also foul-prone and sloppy with the ball, which they can't afford to be against Boston. It'll be interesting to see if Moody can continue to earn effective minutes.
Dubs in 7 with each team taking a road game.

moody and kuminga wont play much (or at all) unless gp2, iggy or otto miss time (or if they look bad on their return)

switching is OP

I have a hard time seeing GPII get his stroke back quickly or Iggy providing much value at this point, unless he shows more willingness and ability to shoot. Who knows, though, maybe Iggy's been saving it all up the last three seasons for this moment.

Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II and Otto Porter Jr. worked out but did not participate in Warriors scrimmage today, per coach Steve Kerr. Availability for G1 Thursday still TBD.

— Monte Poole (@MontePooleNBCS) May 30, 2022

I'm going with dubs in 5. Probably wrong but they are pretty-much full-strength now and they want it so so bad. They have way more finals experience (including their coach, who has been to the finals a few times, vs a rookie), and while the Cs are good at defense, I don't think they've had a lot of experience having to guard 4 elite shooters at once. There will probably be one day where their shooting disappears and they can't make it up in the paint, but I can't see that happening 4 times.

did the dubs pick up another shooter lol

another two shooters

poole wiggins otto are all very capable

poole has been excellent this year afaict

theyre fine i mean theyre all fine wiggins is a career 35% shooter from three hes fine

you do have to guard him you have to guard all of them but are they going to totally roast you well probably not

there are two guys on the warriors who you say a little prayer whenever they get the smallest window to hoist

elite guys if you will

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

i'm obligated to take c's in 7. this is going to be really interesting--the celtics have the best defensive backcourt in the nba yet have had to spend these playoffs gaming for durant, giannis, and butler. put up or shut up time against curry, klay, and poole. on the other hand the warriors have played against a defense remotely like this and it's worth filing away that memphis stressed them a little bit with some talent, but a lot more effort and energy. they're going to need to find a different gear to run their stuff against boston.

i'm very torn on what rob williams means to this series. he can definitely disrupt drives but still gets lost against teams that move the ball effectively. on offense if healthy he could really punish golden state with his verticality at the rim, they have no one who's going to do anything about that. the warriors swing guy is probably poole--definitely a player type that can give the celtics trouble but they could hunt him on the other end.

health will obviously be critical, i'm hoping marcus and rob are moving a bit better and while the warriors injuries are with their role players every little bit counts at this point. i don't see the return of iguodala or payton being meaningful--if they do come back they'll most likely be limited in one way or another.

i hope this is close and fun, everyone deserves that.

i hope its close and fun but the celtics winning easily would be fine too

Question from a baseball fan. I assume because of Nate Silver's involvement, the projections on 538 are analytics-based. They have the Celtics at 83% to win the series (they've been projecting the Celtics to win for many months), which I find really surprising. Is this the equivalent of an old-school/analytics argument in baseball, where the Warriors have so-called intangibles on their side (experience, history, comeback narrative), while the Celtics are the obvious favourite if you don't believe in that stuff?

i don't think the statistical case for the celtics is nearly as strong as that projection would claim. they've been the statistical best team in basketball for a while now but the warriors are right up there too. their offense has been lethal when they avoid turnovers.

the type of intangibles you're talking about also aren't really a thing at this point in the playoffs, both teams have been through a gauntlet to get here and i think most would agree that the celtics have had a harder path.

I think the reason why most ILHers have picked the Celtics is that in a seven game series the best team, or at least the best team in aggregate after injuries are taken into account, will win about 80% of the time. The need to win four reduces variance quite a bit. The margin between teams needs to be extremely thin to make a seven game series a total toss up. Going in, the C's look a bit stronger in their match-ups, but it should be a closely contested series, either 6 or 7 games. And hella fun!

well in general if you like the road team you should pick them in 6 but this particular celtics team seems to operate differently

celtics have tried more threes in the 2022 playoffs than GS have :o

a lot of that probably has to do with playing the bucks but still

538 likes the celtics prob cause they were by the numbers pretty clearly the best team for the second half of the regular season, the regular season can be deceiving in basketball tho, most close nba watchers had them as a contender in a crowded field of contenders which turned out to be more accurate than 538 seeing them as dominant, likewise 538 has them as big faves to win this series where its prob pretty much a toss up, tho i guess you do have to give 538 credit despite being a bizarre site by and for deranged weirdos for liking the celtics more than the average casual fan who didnt really see them as contenders at all

I would also say, Clemenza, relative to a sport like baseball, how teams match up against each other is a much, much bigger factor in basketball. Ergo much harder to use the data of previous performance against other teams to make those kinds of predictions. That said, the Celtics have famously played the Warriors well for the past several years. I believe I saw a tweet that they are the only team in the NBA with a winning record against them over the past 8 years or something(?!). On the other hand, they have of course never met in the playoffs and - again, different from other sports - the playoffs really are a whole different game. In a regular season matchup the Warriors aren't going to switch up their whole style of play from game to game, but in the playoffs you can (try to) mold your whole thing to take advantage of your opponent, as they do the same to you. That's why hoops are the best baby

yeah in the warriors famous 73-9 season the celtics had a win and an overtime loss vs them (with a different (much worse) team than the current one mind you)

their prioritization of perimeter defense has kept it a good matchup through roster turnover i guess

it kind of a classic matchup in the san francisco is the boston of the west coast

are you sure it isnt seattle

seattle is just idk what you even do with seattle

give them a basketball team back, for starters

they need to take it lets see something from the city of seattle

the goat imo

loony "draymond be yelling at us all year too" lmao

The Dubs were chanting "F**k you Draymond" in the locker room after the game 🤣 pic.twitter.com/x1KZHVwYeC

— 95.7 The Game (@957thegame) June 17, 2022

i guess it drives engagement or whatever, but enough of this crap

https://i.imgur.com/TBGnwJP.jpg

― mookieproof, Thursday, June 16, 2022 11:51 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

xp isnt that simply saying that historically teams with a 10 point lead at 3:43 into the game have won 85% of the time? or is it adjusted by some measure of relative team strength? (the models seemed to all prefer the celtics)

― ciderpress, Thursday, June 16, 2022 11:57 PM (yesterday)

I mean if you have two evenly matched teams and you spot one of them 10 points and take 3 minutes of game time off, it seems to make sense that the one team suddenly becomes a huge favorite

i think so too but people didn't seem to think 85% was realistic for it still

Huh!

Mostly, though, Golden State became the NBA champions with the worst regular-season record in 16 years because they saved their very best roster, rotations, and defensive performances for last.

https://defector.com/the-warriors-answered-every-question/

its pretty wild steph does what he does without getting to the line like at all. just a complete unicorn

Steph on Drives in the Finals:

78 Drives
47 points
22/44 FG (50%)
2 /2 FTs
1 foul drawn
8 assists
2 turnovers

— Alex 👋 #WelcomeBackDeebo (@dbs408) June 17, 2022

that’s completely bananas

i thought when kyrie had that huge game 1 vs boston in round 1 that he showed an effective counter to the celtics overall size at every position was having a guy smaller than all their players who could blow past them and get to the rim and finish. kyrie peaced out of that series after game 1 and it didn't really flare up again because the heat and bucks both have a wing as their best on ball creator w/ PGs who are not going to consistently score off the dribble at the rim. but steph brought a bit of that back especially to close it out last night, boston was prob near dead at that point anyway but steph squased the comeback by daring anyone to stop him off the dribble

dragic shot 18-32 from two (56%) in that series too stay woke

https://defector.com/the-warriors-answered-every-question/

― Antifa Lockhart (Leee), Friday, June 17, 2022 3:31 PM (one hour ago)

So that's where Ray Ratto went! I've always enjoyed his writing.

there were already doubts before the start of the season when the celtics made it clear that they were going to roll with smart at pg. it looks now like having a faster guy on the floor who can also maybe create offense without turning the ball over i.e. a traditional pg might not be a bad idea. will be interesting to see if they make any moves at the guard position over the offseason

yeah i would prefer it if they had a "normal" starting point guard instead of smart but not if it requires making a really disruptive roster move

steph, ayesha & wiggins singing canada’s national anthem lmao pic.twitter.com/HG80a0tvG6

— Chris Montano (@gswchris) June 17, 2022

white and smart are both being paid about the same amount to be vaguely the same type of guy when they could really have used a different type of guy to get some different options on offense in these playoff games

yeah a halliburton type would be perfect but those guys dont grow on trees. or even a good version of pritchard

hmm maybe pritchard can become a good version of pritchard with another year under his belt

🐦[Players with 4+ rings and 2+ MVPs:

Bill Russell
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
LeBron James
Tim Duncan

And now, Steph Curry. pic.twitter.com/fszYzl9nJN🕸
— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 17, 2022🕸]🐦

its a nice list but steph is not the same as those guys

hmm maybe pritchard can become a good version of pritchard with another year under his belt

― ciderpress, Saturday, 18 June 2022

or they could package pritchard and whatever draft picks they have left for someone who is already good like tyus jones

Steph makes it look easier than any of those guys did.

Take another look at Kareem.

comparing across eras is a suckers game but basically players have never ever been better than they are now

and even ignoring all that steph still wins pound-for-pound

Take another look at Kareem.

Will do!

check out "lebron james"

lol gotta disagree with you there

This clip got me choked up

in the end the boston offense was just too one-dimensional. clearly the lesser team. drive and kick, try to make an extra pass. there wasn't really a plan B. the warriors eventually figured it out in game 4 and the celtics never won again. not sure i totally agree that they need to go out and get a great playmaking point guard but they need a way to create looks for brown and tatum. drive and kick too often meant brown and tatum were passing it out to a lesser scorer - and then hoping the ball swung back to them.

i've heard a couple of times that ime's general plan this season was - play elite, tight d, and on offense "stay loose" and have fun. in a way it's surprising that it worked as well as it did. but it's clearly not enough to win in the finals.

tatum has got to be rattled. i think he made one FG in the entire second half of game 6. ime's take on it is that he's never faced being the center of a defense's attention to this degree. that may be right, but isn't it also the coach's job to create a plan that shakes him loose more?

https://i.imgur.com/oTknznZ.png

the rest of the league has been relegated