stashing assets for the 2023 nba offseason

reading the tea leaves at the moment i feel like this is headed towards something like

miami gets dame
brooklyn gets herro
portland gets 3 firsts and jovic
spurs get nurkic + a first
okc gets simmons + a first

i picked those last two teams just bcuz they're the obvious cap space teams but there's prob other teams who'd be willing to play that role. but i think there's one or two teams brought in to take on the bad money in exchange for some of the draft compensation that would otherwise all go to portland

three firsts and jovic is pretty rough, particularly in the context of the other recent big trades

i think something more like one of those other firsts and jaquez goes portlands way and one of those other teams gets two seconds

I hear jovic can create an advantage immediately, if that helps.

yeah. i'm just spitballing. but i do think if they want to move off nurkic they have to relinquish one of the firsts that will be in the deal. maybe one of their own goes out heavily protected. there's prob a thousand different permutations. i just don't see how the heat can take on nurkic + dame... the heat are getting the best player but they also have a legitimate argument that taking on a contract paying a guy $60m per year is also worth something too

i personally wouldnt do even the best version of that deal if i were portland just cause the firsts are gonna be bad, you really want all unprotected picks in this deal, and preferably non miami ones, tho i guess theres an argument to be made that once dame and jimmy age out miami will be bad, but i just wouldnt trust the heat to bottom out

doubt protland will send a first out with nurkic if only for appearances sake, you really want to make it look like you got as much as possible

if i had a $20 billion net worth thanks to microsoft i would just say, yeah we can keep nurkic around in exchange for more draft picks. but i don't have $20 billion so what do i know

gotta get $20b then let us know

when the heat traded for dragic they gave up a protected pick (2018) and unprotected pick (2021)

funnily enough both those picks were used to get mikael bridges -- the 2018 pick became no 16, which phoenix used to select zhaire smith who was obv flipped w/ miami's 2021 first for bridges

that 2021 first ended up being no 18 overall -- okc ended up w/ that pick eventually and took tre mann

the heat also traded a first in the butler deal -- at the time the reports said it was miami's 2023 lottery protected first but obviously miami drafted w/ their own pick outside the lottery so i have no idea what happened there. reverse engineering trade protections and stuff is a bit wacky

According to source: Heat's 2023 first-round pick dealt to the Clippers is lottery protected in 2023. If doesn't convey in 2023, also lottery protected in 2024. If doesn't convey in 2024, also lottery protected in 2025. Then unprotected in 2026.

— Anthony Chiang (@Anthony_Chiang) July 2, 2019

moral of the story is that the recent history of the heat's picks are that they're late lottery to mid first round at best and if you have the pick and not them you're prob looking mid first round

as you say you could make the argument their downside of a butler/dame era is prob greater than past years but ppl were saying that about the heat in that weird waiters era and it never played out. here's same vecenie writing in 2018 about how the heat's 2021 unprocteted pick is "extremely valued leaguewide," funny article to read back in general

https://theathletic.com/407741/2018/06/25/why-the-unprotected-2021-miami-heat-first-round-pick-is-an-incredibly-uncertain-yet-valuable-asset-league-wide/

lol good find

best thing about dame and harden situations is we have something to speculate about during an otherwise dead period

the dame situation is mostly annoying bcuz it just needs to be done w/

the harden stuff is amazing theatre tho i hope it drags out all summer

rumors that both garland and siakim are available too, could be a big nba offseason

idk why toronto is trying to be competitive unless it’s an ownership mandate. i like siakam for basically every team in the league, they should cash him in

Some rumblings that current FAs are waiting on the Dame situation before signing. :\

absolutely xp

would also not be surprised to see jaylen brown dealt this summer, tho itd be tricky for the celtics to find the right deal cause theyre trying to contend so fit becomes a much bigger deal they cant do a picks trade etc

but still they gotta be looking at that supermax hes due and taking a long think

the fact that there’s been zero news on that extension is quite bizarre

beat guys are saying "the want to get other things in place first" which doesnt make any sense or that theyre working out the details like if theres a player option etc which is a lil more believable but yeah cant trade him once hes signed and he has not been signed

im sure that if they sign him they would like for it to be for less than the supermax which i suppose is not impossible

would not tho help the ol jaylen brown boston celtics relations

yeah weird situation there, would they be able to sign&trade him next year? i dont know the rules

it seems like, whatever is going on, both sides are on the same page. if that page is “yeah we might trade you”/“yeah i’m cool if you want to trade me” that feels not so great

otm

i have to imagine if jaylen wanted to sign the supermax at the first possible opportunity & boston was like “well actually we want to keep our flexibility so we can trade you” that we would have heard about it by now

or so that we can *possibly* trade you, i guess would be most accurate

like they cant be moving one of their best players in a year they're gonna contend but hes also not quite good enough to max if you want to keep contending in the medium term

i do like a trade for garland from a what they need basketballwise great all around perimeter offense, tho their roster would be very imbalanced then, three guards one wing would require more moves, it would be perfect for cleveland tho

siakim is intriguing too tho hes in a jaylen but worse contract situation since hes older

clay we need an update on how the dame sitch is playing in portland

this is ground control to damian lillard haha

most likely celtics just make a couple more small to mid moves resign jaylen and call it a day since they already made a big trade that could move the needle

garland for jaylen is really interesting tho would jaylen agree to that who knows

boston would need more size at guard if they did that but that could prob be addressed

yeah dont have a good sense of what jaylen wants hes pretty reticent, feel like him and mitchell might be friends tho

celtics need to keep jaylen and teach him how to dribble

before he signs the contract make him promise to practice dribbling

tbf his handle is pretty good when hes not playing the heat in the ecf

the only problem is hes often playing the heat in the ecf

you know what they say, “one must dribble good when playing the heat in the eastern conference finals”

tbf his handle is pretty good when hes not playing the heat in the ecf

― lag∞n, Wednesday, July 5, 2023 1:12 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

or warriors in the finals

i think being that good at nba basketball while only being able to dribble w/ one hand is actually more impressive than just being a great dribbler w/ both hands

jaylen was really good in the warriors series!

the issue tbf isnt even with his handle it has more to do with poor court awareness

yeah he was trying to drive into traffic and force something too much which is what exposed his weak handle

i dont think his handle is even week, i mean he gets to the rim pretty good

before he signs the contract make him promise to practice dribbling

nah you put it *in* the contract that he has to practice dribbling, like the (terrible) kyler murray thing

lol