stashing assets for the 2023 nba offseason

i typed all of this next stuff out before this latest digression and i want to post it before i copy and paste again on my phone and lose it all

in all seriousness…

i think the bucks have to be considered the east favorites and second title favorites overall now and prob for the next few years. but that roster is only pointed in one direction. it’s just a question of whether the fall comes slow or fast. they have a 2-3 year window i think — and if giannis leaves the window closes. but there’s no arguing they have a great shot (on paper) of winning one in that period. my question: can they get in one full, healthy playoff run with a core of guys who are all in their 30s and have all had various major injuries/surgeries in recent years (giannis excepted of course)?

as far as boston goes, i’ve always been of the opinion that the Js would eventually run into at least one title. but they apparently want to extend jrue and giving out big extensions to two guys who have never played with tatum & brown, or together, and are either aging or oft injured, is a big gamble. i feel like w/ the jrue trade they’ve now made a series of moves to replace marcus smart without losing his skill set … and i kinda question like, was marcus smart really the problem? something prob needed to change but that’s a big one. is this just a shell game that didn’t really change much? jrue is a better player and maybe that little bit is what matters, but they also gave up some real stuff to get him and i wonder how much room there is for him to be better than marcus given the presence of tatum and brown. in stretches or games where tatum and brown aren’t on the court, jrue can amp up his offense in a way smart can’t and i think that will matter for them. but im not sure they’ve changed their ceiling much w/ all of these moves — tho maybe it all clicks and they have. entirely possible. they seem committed to this roster one way or another tho

i’m just talking playoff situations btw. i expect in the regular season they’ll be 1-2 especially with the new rest rules — bucks and celtics both have 3 guys subject to that now.

i also would be pretty shocked if the heat don’t do something at least by the deadline, even if it’s just to beef up their rotation. they’ve changed the roster at the deadline 2 out of the 4 butler years, and if they wanna target crowder, igoudala type role players again they do have real assets to throw out for those kinda guys.

and then there’s the fact that the best team is prob still in the west. not that that should prevent either of these teams from pushing as hard as possible now — but the bucks will likely have to beat better than chris paul, devin booker and de’andre ayton next time around

last thing i’ll say…

since butler joined the heat, the eastern conference title count is looking like this

butler & bam - 2
giannis & middleton - 1
tatum & brown - 1

the rosters around them all have changed over the years, significantly now, but those guys have been the constants. i’m excited to see what the scoreboard look like this time next year. the east should be really fun

https://i.imgur.com/ouWbjF7.png

lol

i don't buy that the top west teams are better than bucks or celtics but i don't think they're worse either

smart and rob my two favourite players on the celtics gone, kinda stings

― Tracer Hand, Sunday, October 1, 2023 5:20 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm both drafted by the cs grew up with the team i think smart was like the 8th highest tenured player with one team in the league

i don't buy that the top west teams are better than bucks or celtics but i don't think they're worse either

― ciderpress, Sunday, October 1, 2023 6:23 PM (fifty-two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

id put nuggs celtics bucks as the top three teams right now in some order with the nuggs being 1, but obvs theres a lot of unknowns as we havent even seen the celtics and bucks play, also all these trades could end up being pretty meaningless if no one can figure out how to guard joker

i think the bucks have a higher ceiling than the celtics but they gotta get there

bucks supporting cast is dicey but if 35 y/o lopez keeps doing his thing they get a bounce back season from middleton and the rest of the guys play good enough they could be pretty sick

celtics just gonna play crazy d and jack a bunch of threes idk they still have not addressed the lack of playmaking situation that causes their offense to melt into a little puddle in big playoff spots, one thing the celtics have going for them is they still have a lot of draft picks so have some room to address weaknesses in season, a luxury the bucks dont have

i feel like w/ the jrue trade they’ve now made a series of moves to replace marcus smart without losing his skill set … and i kinda question like, was marcus smart really the problem?

well obviously neither the celtics or anyone else knew jrue was available until last wednesday so this was much more opportunistic than strategic, but it seemed to me like an obvious move that they really had to get done within reason. it seemed like a breakup with brogdon was happening one way or another but as everyone is saying jrue is a beast and you rearrange what you need to rearrange to add him when you're already within striking distance of the finals. it's funny that we're already seeing a major ripple effect of the new CBA play out multiple times, which is that teams that are all in have incentives to go even more all in. i'm pretty ambivalent about this as a fan because the end of the run for these celtics is in sight--if they don't get it done in the next two years it's all over. but that was true before this trade, so yeah you go ahead and make this trade.

i will certainly miss rob who was a weird and joyous player, and i hope he can bounce back in portland or wherever else. ultimately in addition to the health stuff i think he became hard to fit given that the never were willing to play him as the sole big man when it mattered.

and marcus, i do think there were some aspects of his game that were tough for them to work around, and i think him being the longest-tenured celtic maybe wasn't ideal for the set of personalities on this team. jrue is also a better player in just about every respect.

the thing that scares me most is still the f'n coach.

yeah the mazulla sitch is dicey

ESPN Sources: In what’s expected to be a continued attempt to push for a trade, Philadelphia 76ers star James Harden isn’t in attendance for the team’s media day today. Harden remains upset that the organization hasn’t moved him to the Clippers.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 2, 2023

lol this guy

aww everyones getting traded but him

daryl moreys in a tight spot

holding out is rare in the nba, phillys had two stars do it in three years

i find the argument that harden has no choice but to show up and be a good soldier this year if he wants to have an NBA future pretty compelling, but it doesn’t seem like james agrees…

yeah hes really not doing himself any favors

with the simmons situation it kinda felt like addition by subtraction if he never showed up and as much as i will dump on harden i don’t really think that’s the case with this. and yet, what’s the fairy tale scenario here? harden returns to the team, leads the sixers to an inspiring top 3 seed, only to shit his brains onto the floor on national TV in the second round playoffs again? it’s really funny

https://x.com/timbontemps/status/1708875870767661449?s=46&t=delhXlmZBYazm252j4iaFA

god i hate “x”

PJ Tucker says James Harden is “my brother” and that their relationship goes way beyond basketball but that what’s happening now “is what it is.”

Asked if he believes James Harden will be here at some point, Tucker says it’s a good question and that he “has no idea.”

lol

“The Chicago days, skip a team, the Philly days, and now here.”

That’s how Jimmy Butler refers to his time in the league

— jeremy taché (@jeremytache) October 2, 2023

https://staticg.sportskeeda.com/editor/2023/10/9cf0a-16962588371350-1920.jpg

player hater of the year, 2023

the emo puns are limitless

been listening to some post-jrue pods & i haven't heard anyone bring up boston's shooting. it's the one major weakness i see w/ their main group in playoff scenarios especially when tatum has the ball. teams are gonna collapse on tatum and ask jrue, jaylen, white, and whichever big is out there to make a lot of jump shots. those guys have all been fairly capable shooters at points but none of them is so scary that you just cannot leave them open on the perimeter. porzingis in particular is going to have to be a completely different player than the guy we saw in the playoffs last who shot 29% from three and sulked about his role as a floor spacer. i don't think it will be a problem in the regular season & of course guys get hot in the playoffs, but if jaylen brown is your best off the ball floor spacer you're giving the opponent a pretty obvious way to try and squeeze your offense. especially if the celtics are still playing the version of basketball where they're ODing on threes even when they keep missing them. one of the main organizational goals for boston if i was stevens & mazzulla would be getting sam hauser to the point where he can give them duncan robinson kinda minutes in the playoffs.

i also think not enough credence is being given to the very real possibility that horford is just a zero as a playoff player moving forward. when your playoff stats go completely off a cliff at age 37, i'm skeptical that they're ever coming back

22 offs - 12/9/3 on 52/48 shooting
23 offs - 7//7/3 on 39/30 shooting

maybe it was all just make or miss league stuff w/ his shooting but this is huge a flashing blaring red siren to me

i just love media day:

ayton doesnt even believe the words coming out of his mouth

.@DeandreAyton: “I bring dominance. My name is DominAyton.” 😤

🎥: @trailblazers pic.twitter.com/MIXOdxuT9v

— NBA TV (@NBATV) October 2, 2023

oh wow didn't realize dwight howard was back

San Antonio Spurs G Devin Vassell has agreed on a five-year, $146 million contract extension, Andrew Morrison, Rich Beda and Mitch Nathan of @CAA_Basketball tell ESPN. Vassell lands rookie scale extension as part of 2020 Draft class and solidifies himself as a Spurs cornerstone. pic.twitter.com/SUK3Y0ig8T

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 2, 2023

ok?

nba money is absurd

imo the celtics shooting is fine theyve got a ton of guys who hoist at a dece percentage, i think the thing with just spamming threes melting down in big game crunch time and even jaylen browns supposed bad left hand has much more to do with a deficit of playmaking, when you have high usage guys who just arent real natural dime droppers its not as good as if they were lol, tatum has made a lot of progress but its still prob the weakest part of his game and then youve got jaylen who is just genuinely bad at that sort of thing, so they can have problems executing under heavy duress, weve seen a similar problem with kd in the playoffs who is an otherwise immaculate offensive player but you can double him and he just wont consistently punish it xp jordan

just like reads, court vision, celtics main guys arent the best at it

yup they need to rebuild his value

While the rebuilding Blazers demanded Williams as part of the deal for the All-Star Holiday, most assumed the veteran Brogdon would be dealt as the team focused on its younger talent. However, Blazers GM Joe Cronin relayed a different message publicly at Blazers media day on Monday.

“We want to have Malcolm come here and be a part of this,” Cronin told reporters in Portland. “He can bring some good on-court intangibles for us and also as a veteran, which is something we’re going to need. We have a very young roster. I want to make sure there’s enough veteran leadership around these guys.”

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2023/10/blazers-reveal-unexpected-plan-for-malcolm-brogdon-after-celtics-trade.html

it'll probably be good for scoot to not have to play on-ball all the time

also could just be shit you have to say on media day

suspect just no one wants to trade for him right now

if he can stay healthy someone will want him tho

Sixers could probably use a guy like him, regardless of what happens with Harden.

Idk if they really have anything to trade.

it has been fun watching the blazers trade down the point guard tree, dame --> jrue --> brogdon --> ??? (lowry feels like the next logical step?)

if brogdon is healthy i could def see him as a deadline target for the heat

imo the celtics shooting is fine theyve got a ton of guys who hoist at a dece percentage, i think the thing with just spamming threes melting down in big game crunch time and even jaylen browns supposed bad left hand has much more to do with a deficit of playmaking, when you have high usage guys who just arent real natural dime droppers its not as good as if they were lol, tatum has made a lot of progress but its still prob the weakest part of his game and then youve got jaylen who is just genuinely bad at that sort of thing, so they can have problems executing under heavy duress, weve seen a similar problem with kd in the playoffs who is an otherwise immaculate offensive player but you can double him and he just wont consistently punish it xp jordan

― lag∞n, Monday, October 2, 2023 5:19 PM (one hour ago)bookmarkflaglink

just like reads, court vision, celtics main guys arent the best at it

― lag∞n, Monday, October 2, 2023 5:30 PM (one hour ago)

i think jrue will 1000% help them reduce the number of 4th quarter playoff possessions where it looks like tatum and brown were just zapped by the men in black mind eraser. if jrue is the one shooting at the end it may not be the best but he can at least make a functional offensive basketball play that might lead to a good shot for someone else in those moments. it's possible this fact alone pushes boston over the top -- you could argue he did this exact thing for the bucks

the shooting thing reminds me of a conversation we all had last year about the sixers, where i said that their role player shooting just wasn't good enough, and i was told that their shooting was more than good enough and to look at tobias' and melton's three pt percentages. i think in the playoffs you really noticed them being one good shooter short. boston's current core guys all have decent percentages, but idk if you can have the whole team built out of 35-37% three point shooters. that's what tatum and brown have been the last two years, so it puts pressure on the other three guys to shoot closer to 40% than 35%. but there is no elite shooter in the rotation unless zinger comes out playing at the apex of what he can do. jrue has shot well in the regular season but we know the playoffs have been different.

to me when you look at them vs denver and milwaukee, i think boston is at a shooting disadvantage at the moment. boston was also at a shooting disadvantage when they lost to golden state, and last year against the heat there ended up being a big disparity too. both denver and milwaukee at minimum have elite on ball shooting (murray and lillard) that boston only gets irregularly from tatum (though often in big games). again i do think boston can be still good enough to overcome it, but past recent champions have had at least some clear elite shooting on their roster and i don't see that (on paper) w/ boston currently.

relatedly to me one of the biggest questions is whether middleton is back to being an elite three point off shooter. if not then milwaukee has some of the same issues. but if he's back to being a 40%+ three point shooter to go w/ dame, boston just isn't able to match that

I can't quite articulate it but Ayton is such a Timberwolves draft pick

i mean obvs some guys are better at shooting than others but a lot of it is looks too, boston had brogdon leading the league in 3pt% after a few years in the low 30s, middleton has played his entire career with giannis destroying the paint, is middleton a good 3pt shooter idk hard to say, were phillys 3pt shooters good enough? harden wasnt lol

hauser is a 42% career 3pt shooter and pritchard is at 40% fwiw

there are actually very few nba players who are consistant 40%+ shooters, its hard theres a lot of factors a lot of variance, duncan robinson 3pt% last 4 years 45, 41, 37, 32, and then you want to talk about variance over an individual playoff series my lord, youre basically playing the lottery

many xps, that devin vassell ext is a little higher than i thought (i figured he'd be closer to 125 than 145 which over 5 years is not huge) but im glad they got him locked in. hes going to be a huge complement to wemby as a perimeter two-way player.