theres always allstars in there just gotta chose right
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:25 (four months ago) link
hawks randomly winning the lottery in the worst draft ever would be really good
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:25 (four months ago) link
sad lol that detroit got the best odds again and once again got the 5th pick
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:26 (four months ago) link
lmaooooooooooooooooooo
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:27 (four months ago) link
alex sarr get ready to learn strip club buddy
hawks did it bb playin to #1 pick what a dream
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:28 (four months ago) link
lmaooooooo j0rd
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:29 (four months ago) link
curtis mayfield mentioned
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:30 (four months ago) link
reed sheppard to spurs feels right
― lag∞n, Sunday, May 12, 2024 3:25 PM (two minutes ago)
i forgot who said this on one of the podcasts recently but one of the guys, might've been hollinger, was arguing that we are generally very good at projecting the quality of the top 3 or top 5 in the draft -- those players are supposed to be pretty translatable, it's pretty rare we think the top 5 isn't good and then there's randomly 2 hall of famers in there or something. but after the top 8 or something even we basically have zero ability to understand or predict draft quality overall, which sounded right to me
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:30 (four months ago) link
its my greatest desire, my lil hoister
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:30 (four months ago) link
xp
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:31 (four months ago) link
it's pretty rare we think the top 5 isn't good and then there's randomly 2 hall of famers in there or something.
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, May 12, 2024 3:30 PM (seventeen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink
ant and lamelo fit the bill, no one liked that draft teams had no interest in trading into the top three, stuff like jaylen and jayson both going third and a lot of people thinking that was too high, i dont think the predictions are as good as hollinger does
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:35 (four months ago) link
well it's not that everyone understands precisely how to order the top 5, that's not the point. teams still mess up all the time. but for instance that tatum draft was considered to be loaded and it looks that way now. it's just that people thought it was gonna be fultz and lonzo who were the stars not tatum and fox
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:39 (four months ago) link
i mean there are big misses in the top five every year
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:41 (four months ago) link
ant as the no 1 pick def massively exceeding expectations, maybe alex sarr can be the next ant. but the rest of that top 5 is wiseman, lonzo, patrick williams and isaac okoro i don't think it's beating the bad top of draft allegations
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:41 (four months ago) link
lamelo made the allstar team his second season and was great from the moment he stepped on an nba court, hes just injured all the time, but he wouldve been a perennial allstar at the very least, and still could be
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:43 (four months ago) link
2020 draft hard to gauge bc of covid, this one is a more traditional "no clear #1 bc no one is that compelling" problem
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:45 (four months ago) link
like sarr at least should be a great defender in space, but still dont know what he'll do offensively. dillingham could be a maxey/trae young type offensive engine but he's so bad defensively. reed seems like a shoo-in high level rotation player but his lack of size lowers his ceiling. topic is not much of an outside shooter yet. no one knows if risacher's the real deal. clingan seems like a kessler archetype atp. holland and buzelis cant shoot, etc.
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:49 (four months ago) link
idk 2020 draft kinda perfectly illustrates the point to me, everyone thought that guys like okoro, williams, killian hayes, deni avdija were real stretches as top 10 picks, reflective of a weak class at the top and that's exactly how it has played out. but then you have guys like halliburton, maxey, bane, jaden mcdaniels, quickley later in the draft when it gets to the point that nobody actually has any ability to gauge year to year quality
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:50 (four months ago) link
the weak class at the top while there are better players in the middle of the draft is just a failure put the players in the right order theres nothing else going on
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 19:59 (four months ago) link
hmm, looking at that list of 2020 top 10 busts, common thread seems to be betting on positional size/athleticism in the absence of more revealing skill data and passing up talented small guards (maxey, quickley, bane's arms) in the process
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:01 (four months ago) link
the banes arms fallacy
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:01 (four months ago) link
tbf to the teams drafting for the nba is really hard it makes sense to fallback on size and athleticism cause at least the players have that, its kind of like drafting quarterbacks in the nfl where you just hope they can read the speed of complexity of the pro game but theres no way to test for it, except thats every nba player
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:04 (four months ago) link
That Houston pick that went into the top-3 is from Brooklyn. It was obvious at the time and even more so now that prioritizing the picks from Brooklyn over getting Ben Simmons was the right move.— Nate Duncan (@NateDuncanNBA) May 12, 2024
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:09 (four months ago) link
the nets are skilled at team building, just none of them are the nets haha
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:11 (four months ago) link
Uh, what the fuck just happened?
― Heez, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:13 (four months ago) link
da #1 pick its all yours who are you going to select
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:14 (four months ago) link
feel in my bones that a hawks-pelicans trade involving brandon ingram is imminent
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:19 (four months ago) link
for dejonte or trae
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:22 (four months ago) link
My immediate thought was some trade involving Trae but I’ll take the 7’1” man who weighs 217 what could go wrong
― Heez, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:24 (four months ago) link
― lag∞n, Sunday, May 12, 2024 3:22 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink
feel like dejounte makes more sense if they keep CJ
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:30 (four months ago) link
feel like cj shouldnt factor into their decision making too much hes just not that good anymore
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:32 (four months ago) link
true, they may just prefer dejounte is of only to have some sort of defensive identity with herb jones
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:34 (four months ago) link
*if only
trae gives them more of what they need shooting and playmaking but zion and trae together on defense might be a non starter
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:34 (four months ago) link
thing about dejonte is hes best with the ball in his hands but hes still not that good and now hes dominating the ball, idk not a big fan, his defense has slipped too maybe he can get it back but it seems like he might think hes a star now whos above all that
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:36 (four months ago) link
he made one injury replacement all star team and signed to klutch, v much a case of a guy who thinks he's better than he actually is
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:43 (four months ago) link
No team had EVER dropped from 1 to 5 in the history of the NBA Draft Lottery…It’s now happened to the Detroit Pistons TWO years in a row. Incredible.— Ryan Field (@RyanFieldABC) May 12, 2024
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:57 (four months ago) link
lottery used to be just top three so its only been possible to do that in the few years since they switched to top four
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 20:59 (four months ago) link
still gotta be long odds of doing that tho
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:00 (four months ago) link
theyve only done the top 4 lottery since 2019
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:00 (four months ago) link
its a bum deal for detroit, but the worst record has a 48% chance of #5, definitely bad luck to happen twice but just under 1 in 4 odds bad luck
― polyamerie "it's more than this 1 thing" (m bison), Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:01 (four months ago) link
its one in four if youre the worst team two years in a row
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:03 (four months ago) link
honestly odds are better that the pistons get a star in this draft bcuz four teams ahead of them screwed up than they would be if they had the no 1 pick themselves. it’s for the best
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:09 (four months ago) link
been out so i'm catching up with news now and lol at this being the year that a team hits the bottom of lottery to #1 jackpot move-up, too poetic
― ciderpress, Sunday, 12 May 2024 21:25 (four months ago) link
― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Sunday, May 12, 2024 3:39 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
― lag∞n, Sunday, May 12, 2024 3:41 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
I think it was nate duncan who actually said this fwiw, the idea is not that there’s a hard cutoff at 5 but just that the confidence in your evaluation (and/or a player’s chances of making it) decrease more or less linearly with draft order, which is kind of self-evident
― brony james (k3vin k.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 22:19 (four months ago) link
What would Trae Young and the No.1 pick get you in a deal?— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) May 12, 2024
the replies are great
― brony james (k3vin k.), Sunday, 12 May 2024 22:50 (four months ago) link
― brony james (k3vin k.), Sunday, May 12, 2024 6:19 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
yeah i mean they know something about who the good players are its not random
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 23:55 (four months ago) link
trae + the first pick isnt going to get you anything the teams that want trae doent want the first pick and vice versa
― lag∞n, Sunday, 12 May 2024 23:58 (four months ago) link