win total for the 2010 MIAMI DREAM TEAM GOD TEAM

0

112

12

^how many the cavs will win afaict

the Cavs will still be a playoff team methinks, but more on the 42-40 tip.

heat however going 81-1

60-64

55-59. how long do they have to win a title before everything starts getting weird and they start blaming each other? two years?

if they dont win a title in the next two months riley is going to take over as coach

obv

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cannot breathe

bernie -> stephen a is fucking slaying me

i am seriously dying here

arguably my favorite gif of the year!

i'm voting 65-69 wins btw

65 sounds about right

how is mike miller guy not going to get at least 45% from 3 this year? thats a conservative estimate, if korver can get 54%, mike can get 50% w/ all the open looks he should get

65-70

unless Wade and Bosh double team Lebron's mom

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/3851/hodno.jpg

omg http://i910.photobucket.com/albums/ac310/feeltheboogie/pokeheat.png

miami heat: embrace your inner villain

Former NBA guard Wally Szczerbiak, James' former teammate, told Sirius XM Radio that a Wade/James pairing is ``not going to work. No way. When Wade's dribbling the ball up top, calling for a high pick-and-roll, and LeBron's standing in the corner, no one's going to guard LeBron. He's not a floor spacer. He's not a guy you have to pay attention to at the three-point line. He needs the ball in his hands . . . and there's only one basketball. As an opposing player, I would be so motivated to kick these guys' butts.''

He needs the ball in his hands . . .

Er, Wally. The plan is to make LeBron a PG, don't you recall? What more does he need to "get the ball in his hands"?

plus lebron open in the corner=lebron getting a head of steam to attack the rim. wally not really known for his defensive acumen.

As an opposing player, I would be so motivated to kick these guys' butts.''

i think this tells you why szczerbiak's view isn't objective.

IraHeatBeat
Mike Miller accepts that he will be cast as sixth man. "It'll probably be a role that I'll play," he said just a few moments ago.
6 minutes ago via web

condolences to udonis haslem

WallaceNBAHeat Heat forward Udonis Haslem mourning death of his mother, Debra, after losing long battle to cancer. Send prayers for UD.

he seems like a nice guy, and i appreciate his loyalty to the heat.

off-topic, i realize. apologies for that.

this is all so premature. the miami heat have:

• no interior defense. "How are they going to deal with Gasol, Garnett, Boozer, and even Perkins? They have no interior muscle."
• no point guard defense. chalmers "can't shoot, which will be a big problem when the opposing team chooses to double up on the perimeter."
• no bench. "Arroyo, Jamaal Magloire, Joel Anthony are not exactly role players on a championship team."
• an inexperienced coach. "Spoelstra, I found out, was Filipino. There's no way a Filipino can hold a championship trophy. It's too unAmerican."
• lebron james. "Lebron is just not a winner. When the going gets tough, Lebron pouts and falters. That's the Lebron way."

Nathan Lim goes out on a limb... starts sawing.

Nathan writes in the comments: "Many Americans don't associate Americans with filipinos. Of course there are great filipino americans, like UFC's Mark Munoz, whom I'm going to write an article about. But in backwards places like the south and midwest, people aren't comfortable seeing Spoelstra becoming successful when they themselves are struggling in their backwards ass home states."

What does this have to do with ANYTHING.

can I just say that this dude appears to not really think things through before saying them

like, Filipino ppl have hands, it's relatively easy for them to hold things

Clearly he was trying to be funny and failed miserably, right?

one would hope!

well, he def failed, whatever he was trying to do

mayweather won't fight bcuz people aren't READY do u see

He is the first boxer in history to win seven world titles in seven different weight divisions — Flyweight, Super Bantamweight, Featherweight, Super Featherweight, Lightweight, Light Welterweight and Welterweight

backward ass america has already had a rough go of it imo

lol, we're no. 25 already among the most hated teams of all-time.

bonus: we have the nos. 1 most-hated team, too!

I hate that. -- Phil Taylor

daniel, why do you torture yourself reading things on the website "bleacher report"? i literally do not understand this

WallaceNBAHeat
Eddie House agrees to two-year, $2.8 million contract with the Heat, agent Mark Bartelstein confirms. House returns.
3 minutes ago via web

haha, yeah, it is a form of slow-torture. i'd never heard of that site before this free-agent season.

(xp)

yahoo story on eddit house says heat still interested in mcgrady. hm.

EthanJSkolnick‎. Free Eddie House! The Heat now has 3 guys who could hit 45 percent from 3, w all the open looks: House, Miller, J. Jones (if wrist's right).

not sure i'd go this far, but eddie house -- even at 32 -- is a nice pickup.

because there's been a drip-drip-drip of heat signings since the big free-agency coup, this can escape attention, but miami really is loaded with talent.

i see weaknesses (the obv. ones; a defensive stopper/perimeter defense, a top-shelf center), but the roster is very good.

With someone of the ilk of Magloire or Howard or Jones sitting out on game nights
wow someone is discussing this

I think its hard to run against he Celts tbh . . . I thought Kerr made a good analogy saying that the Celts were like a ball control offense in the NFL trying to keep away and disrupt the flow of the opposing team's offense

yes this is 100% true. boston has not just a good defense, but one of the best, most smothering defenses of all-time.

having said that, for the heat to go where they want this year, they'll have to go thru that defense (and orlando, obv).

that's what they do

why you won't see a fast breaking team with no half court game beat them in a series

Lebron was the only guy on the Heat who looked like he was qualified to play against the Celtics last night.

Wade will be good when he gets back in game shape but he isn't there yet.

yeah, bosh seemed overpowered by the boston frontcourt.

that's gonna happen a lot imo

good player but he won't be beating people up on the block more like tickling them from the outside

They could really use a DeJuan Blair type of player to pair with Bosh.

http://oi52.tinypic.com/2nscinn.jpg

also they'll get way better when they get mike miller back & shooting threes

lol as a t-wolves fan i would warn you against assuming this is a given

It's really me on Twitter, check out the twitpic or should I say Twitzki! http://twitpic.com/30s58t
8:47 AM Oct 25th via Twitpic

wrong thread

where timmy

― ice cr?m

it's a strange fucked-up and useless list now that i look at it again tbqf

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

i'm not gonna hold t wolves stats against anyone

oh i do believe me i do

lol, think that bball ref page doesn't count players as "active" unless their teams have played a game this season.

hollinger

After two games, three conclusions stand out:

1. These guys will guard

If you've been watching how the LeBron-Wade-Bosh trio interacts on offense the past two days, you were looking at the wrong end. Eventually they're going to find ways to score; that goes without saying.

Paul Pierce
Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesMiami's offense needs work, but the defense is already super.

Of far more interest to me was to what extent the trio of stars would commit to being a dominant defensive team. That's one of the biggest obstacles to them becoming a champion, and on that score they passed their first two tests with flying colors.

The defeat to Boston came almost entirely because the Heat couldn't score; defensively, they gave up only 88 points in 90 Boston possessions in a road game against an elite team.

Against Philadelphia on Wednesday, in a road back-to-back, they did even better: 87 points on 94 possessions.

While it's common for defense to have the upper hand early in the season, Miami's defensive efficiency mark of 92.7 is spectacular and would almost certainly lead the league if they were to keep it up for a full season.

Notably, Miami's lack of interior size hasn't prevented it from completely controlling the defensive boards. Miami grabbed 60 defensive boards to 18 offensive boards for the opposition, a very solid 76.9 percent defensive rebound rate.

2. They need more space

OK, about the offense. No, it hasn't looked great, especially early in games. The Heat have just 27 points to show for their two first quarters, which is doubly odd because that's when they should have their most overwhelming lineup on the floor.

Turnovers, in particular, have been a major and befuddling problem. The Heat have 33 in their first two games, including an eye-popping 17 from LeBron James. While their opponents were two of the league's best at forcing miscues in 2009-10, several of Miami's miscues have been absolutely baffling. My personal fave was the play in Philadelphia last night in which Udonis Haslem leaped for a pass as it was going through his legs, but one could produce a short film clip with several moments of levity.

Those plays are only part of the story, however. There will be unforced bobbles and stumbles in any game, but the other reason for the high turnover counts is that Miami players keep driving into crowds.

A lot of the reason for that, in turn, is because the Heat don't have a lot of shooting to put on the court. Miami got a reprieve last night when James Jones rose from the dead to nail six 3-pointers, but the starting lineup in particular appears devoid of the kind of shooting help that could provide more creases for James and Wade.

Thus, the slow starts. Obviously, the absence of sharpshooter Mike Miller and the less-discussed one of Mario Chalmers in the first two games has been a factor, and it's not something a slasher like Jerry Stackhouse can cure. Particularly when center Joel Anthony is on the floor, it's very easy for opponents to leave bodies in the paint to collapse around the drives of James and Wade. In a related story, the team leader in plus-minus thus far is the modestly talented floor-spacing big man Zydrunas Ilgauskas, at plus-23. Anthony, despite playing nearly all his minutes with three of the best players in the world, is at minus-4.

It's also very easy for opponents to hide bad defenders against Miami's starters. Last night the Sixers started human sieve Jason Kapono and put him on Carlos Arroyo to start the game. Short of having all the Sixers point at Arroyo and laugh before the opening tip, it would be hard to more openly disrespect an opposing point guard. Nonetheless, the Heat limped out to another turnover-plagued opening stanza before Jones opened the spigots in the second.

Ultimately, one wonders if Miami will make a shift to its starting five to get more shooting on the floor. I don't expect it to happen tomorrow or even this month, but at some point the Heat are likely to add more shooting to the starting lineup and put one of the two non-shooters, Arroyo or Anthony, on the bench.

3. They need to get Bosh more involved

In the first game, we saw LeBron James thrive while a rusty Dwyane Wade struggled. In the second game, Wade blew up while James took something of a back seat.

In neither game, however, did we see much of anything from Chris Bosh, and if that continues, the Heat will be wasting one of their most potent assets. Bosh has just 23 points and 15 rebounds through the first two contests, a far cry from his output in Toronto in previous seasons.

[+] EnlargeChris Bosh
AP Photo/Winslow TownsonChris Bosh averaged 24.0 ppg with Toronto last season but has just 23 total points through two games.

Mainly, I think the reason is a lack of opportunities. When Miami has run the offense through him, it's been the old "let's run a really stagnant play to involve our big guy" stand-by of lobbing it into the post and letting him work one-on-one while the other guys stand around. Bosh can score a bit from the block, especially on size mismatches, but his specialty is the left elbow -- and he's not getting the ball there.

What I can't tell, yet, is whether that's a function of play calling, playmaking, or, as I strongly suspect, both. The Heat have used Bosh in some pick-and-pop plays, but not nearly enough to let him get in a rhythm attacking opposing big men. Moreover, he doesn't get the ball on most of them: Miami's primary ball handler, James, doesn't tend to make a quick decision to hit the roll man for an open J when he's running the offense.

Playing in Cleveland the past several years, that was probably an appropriate decision. Playing with Bosh, however, he has to move the ball and stop pounding it so much. Bosh can destroy most NBA big men from that spot but his chances to do so have been few and far between in the first two games.

If James can move the ball more quickly, it may solve some other problems as well. Maybe he makes fewer turnovers plowing through crowds, and maybe the lack of shooters is less problematic if there's more motion and more of Bosh pulling big men away from the rim.

That's how it looks now, anyway. Remember, it's two games -- the view at this point can be more distorted than a fun house mirror. Just ask one of the Cavs fans who are hurriedly clipping the standings out of the paper this morning. We know what the Heat were like during their first two games. What we don't know, by and large, is how they'll meld over the final 80.

Notably, Miami's lack of interior size hasn't prevented it from completely controlling the defensive boards. Miami grabbed 60 defensive boards to 18 offensive boards for the opposition, a very solid 76.9 percent defensive rebound rate.

true. but they've been bad on the offensive glass iirc. they need more second-shot opportunities, especially if their shooters aren't shooting well.

but the offense will come. i think i now understand that "continuity" offense a little better. it assumes a double-team on whichever of lebron or wade is bringing the ball across midcourt. the ballhandler draws the double team, then makes the outlet pass to the other devestating perimeter player, making the "help" defender cross-over to the new ballhandler. if the defense isn't quick enough -- and few defenses will be -- the new ballhandler can drive to the basket (of course, if another defender collapses in to help, the ballhandler can dump the ball to bosh). or the ballhandler can send the ball back to his partner, who now will have favorable one-on-one coverage to exploit. can be devestating with this personnel group. i've read this planned offense as being a continuity offense, but it sounds more like a motion offense.

if i'm totally misreading what this offense is about, i'm happy to be corrected.

espn -- breaking down the stifling heat defense:

The throat-clearing has been loud and painful to listen to at times, but the Miami Heat are starting to show glimpses of how they're going to win basketball games.

Despite all that offensive firepower on the wings with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, the Heat have established their trademark early as a stubborn, menacing defense, one that can cover for an offense that's still feeling itself out and occasionally susceptible to an unusual combination of anxious deliberation and hero ball.

"Right now the most important thing is the guys understand, one, our identity is the defensive side of the floor," Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said. "Secondly, get to know each other what we're trying to do offensively. That will take some time."

That stingy defense kept them in a game at Boston they had little right to be in, then clamped down on Philadelphia, yielding only 87 points in 95 possessions. On Friday night against Orlando -- the 2nd most efficient offensive outfit in the NBA last season -- Miami was dominant. After a reasonably effective first period, Orlando couldn't find anything in the half court over the final three quarters. For a team that understands entry angles, ball movement, how to stretch defenses and -- most important -- a team that has a deep sense of self-awareness about what they want to achieve on every possession, Orlando appeared desperate.

Last season, the Orlando Magic averaged 24.1 shots per game at the rim – a smidgen below the league average of 26.5. On one occasion during the regular season, they generated as few as 12 shots in the immediate basket area, and logged a season-low total of 11 attempts at the rim in their humiliating Game 3 conference semifinal loss at Boston. Against Miami on Friday, the Magic attempted only seven shots in the basket area and not one of the team's collective five assists led to points at the rim.

Ever since the Heat began to fill in their roster behind James, Wade and Chris Bosh, we've heard that their most profound vulnerability is thin personnel up front. Tout the Big 3 all you want, said critics, but how can you possibly go to battle in the Eastern Conference -- and potentially against the Lakers -- with a frontcourt composed of the power forward from the worst defensive team in the league last season (Bosh), an undrafted, unimposing stilt who has quick feet but little girth (Joel Anthony), a noble but undersized power forward (Udonis Haslem), a few pokey oldsters off the bench (Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamaal Magloire, Juwan Howard), and an uninitiated rookie (Dexter Pittman)?

Given all that, the logical question is: How did the Heat defy the skeptics and limit Orlando to four field goals at the rim?

Help and Recover

Here is a textbook set where Miami -- with its bedrock defensive principle -- stifles Orlando's go-to stuff:

• 1st quarter, 12:00 mark. Opening possessions aren't always the best exhibit for examination because defenses are fresh and, in a game against an arch rival, amped up. But the Heat's D here offers an instructive look at just how active and intuitive their defensive instinct are.

The Magic start their set with Dwight Howard (guarded by Joel Anthony) and Lewis (Bosh's man) at the left and right elbows respectively, with Vince Carter and Quentin Richardson situated on the right side. Orlando does a good job getting into the set quickly. Lewis curls around counterclockwise, getting an off-ball screen from Howard en route to his favorite spot on the left side of the perimeter. Miami anticipates the action beautifully. When Lewis swings around the screen, Anthony picks him up immediately, while Bosh moves down to take Howard.

Nelson shuttles the ball to Lewis and this seems like a golden opportunity for Lewis to hit Howard -- now with a mismatch -- down on the block. But before he can, Wade has moved off Richardson to get between Howard and the hoop, which provides enough help to allow Anthony and Bosh to recover. That rotation by Wade along with the quick recovery by Anthony renders an entry pass by Lewis impossible. Meanwhile, Wade quickly darts back to rejoin Richardson in the weak side corner.

Miami has extinguished the Magic's first option on the set and, with 14 on the shot clock, Orlando explores option 2 -- a reversal to the wings on the other side of the floor, which starts with Carter now holding the ball with James in front of him. Against a weaker, slower defender, Carter might be able to go one-on-one. Against James at this point in Carter's career? Forget about it. Howard steps up to give Carter a screen and, again, the Heat make life difficult for the Magic. James chases Carter along the arc, while Anthony shadows him. But who has the rolling Howard? It's Wade, again, providing timely help, giving Anthony enough time to drop back onto Howard in the paint.At this point, Wade returns to Richardson and gets there just as Carter pushes a pass over to the Magic's new small forward. With Wade harassing him and only :06 remaining on the shot clock, Richardson steps back for an awkward, contested 3-point attempt that isn't close. Four white jersey wait poised underneath for the rebound.So here we have a possession where all five Magicians touch the ball -- something coaches the world over preach as virtuous. Yet the Magic are never able to sniff the paint. Credit the Heat's defense, which makes a smart decision at every turn.

Pick and Roll Defense

On the surface, the pick and roll -- a staple for Orlando (and most NBA teams for that matter) -- is a perimeter action. But for a team like Orlando, that tactic is often the portal to working the ball down low to Howard and also getting Nelson and Carter into the lane with dribble-penetration. Here's an example of how effectively Miami defended one of the most fluid pick and roll attacks in basketball:

• 2nd quarter, 5:47 mark. This is one of Orlando's bread-and-butter sets, something they've tormented the league with for the better part of three years. It all starts with a high Lewis screen for Nelson. But Chris Bosh steps up off the screen while Carlos Arroyo does a nice job staying between the ball and Lewis, preventing a potential pass to the popping Lewis at the arc. But Arroyo's work isn't over. Bosh recovers onto Lewis, but as Arroyo scampers to recover onto Nelson -- who has dribbled to the right sideline with the ball -- Howard runs interference, then rolls toward the paint. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Howard's man) has to pick up Nelson outside the arc on the switch. Arroyo, stuck with Howard as the big man incurs into the paint, leaps in the air as Nelson telegraphs that he wants to hit Howard with an entry pass. This isn't a fail-safe defensive tactic (Arroyo looks like the short kid at the concert back in the crowd trying to see the stage), but Arroyo is disruptive enough that Nelson can't really make that entry, so the Magic point guard moves the ball to Lewis, who's on his left at the top of the arc.

Bosh guards Lewis on the perimeter, long arms in the air, active feet, giving Lewis no space to breathe. Lewis looks for Howard down low, but Big Z is pushing Howard off his spot. This is an uncomfortable Magic offense. The Heat aren't as physical as the Celtics, but they read every intention and are lightning quick to the ball and to the passer's intended target.

The ball slowly makes its way to the next stop on the perimeter line, J.J. Redick to Lewis' left. The Magic have only 10 seconds with which to work. Redick puts the ball on the floor and makes his way cross-court where he dumps it off to Nelson, who now has :07 to make something happen. Howard moves high to give Nelson a pick. Nelson dribbles in and elevates for a 20-foot jumper (a low percentage shot Orlando is generally superb at avoiding). Ilgauskas smells it the whole way. He recovers effortlessly to stick his big limb in Nelson's face. The shot is dreadfully short. After the game, I reminded Bosh that he played for the worst defensive team in basketball last season, but now finds himself on what appears to be one of the best. So, is a good or bad defense the product of personnel or is it about the system? Which is more vital to success or failure?

"It's about the system," Bosh said. "It's nothing about personnel. It's just effort. I was talking about that with my friends. You have something and you stick to it. 'These are your principles.'"

For the ball the reach the paint, there must be entry angles available and there must be space for slashers to penetrate. Eliminating those avenues are two of the guiding principles that Bosh is talking about.

Being Everywhere at Once

"Orlando is a tough team to play because they put you in a position where you have to double Dwight at times, then you have to fly out to shooters," James said. "You have to do multiple things. You have to get into the paint, then get out to the shooters. We did both tonight."

• 3rd quarter, 8:26 mark. Richardson is able to deliver the entry pass to Howard in the mid-post, where the center is immediately swarmed by a quick double-team by James. Howard is an underrated passer out of the double-team, and is able to lob an overhead pass across the court to the weak side corner where Nelson has set up shop. James dashes over the instant the pass is airborne and, incredibly, is able to close out hard on Nelson before he can launch an would-be open 3-pointer.

This forces Nelson to put the ball on the floor and take a couple dribbles along the baseline. When Nelson meets Bosh-- who has walled off the paint -- at about 18 feet, he's unloads a high-degree-of-difficulty, high-arcing shots that falls through.

Although Nelson gets his two, chalk up this possession as a defensive success for the Heat. They deter two high percentage shots with their strategy (Howard from close range, then Nelson with an open corner-3), and force the Magic to settle for a low-percentage one. Yes, Nelson converts, but if you asked Magic coach Stan Van Gundy to rank in descending order his shot preference on this possession, chances are he'd place Nelson's wild rainbow well behind the first two options. Neither Howard nor Nelson had any chance to finish his shot at the rim.

For the Heat, this type of anticipation and quicks will be central to what will inevitably be one of the league's most difficult defenses to score against this season.

This isn't the full repertoire of Miami's defensive attributes. They clog passing lanes. They collapse on penetration intelligently -- still being mindful of the space they've left behind. And they harass incessantly. With impunity. Joel Anthony still poses challenges for the Heat staff, especially on the offensive end, but his anticipation and happy feet defending the pick and roll are helping his team make stops. For all of Arroyo's failing, he, too, is making smart decisions as a half court defender. And Bosh? We might have a Ray Allen effect -- a guy who arrived into a new situation with a horrible defensive reputation, but just needed a coherent system to show off his instincts. Don't expect Bosh to take home any hardware this season for his work on the defensive side of the ball, but he's far, far better than advertised.

Whatever cohesion the Heat still lack on offense, Spoelstra has already instilled a fluid brand of defense that maximizes his team's uncommon quickness and smarts. Fans will tune in to watch the offensive exploits and the dazzling Top 10 fodder -- and who wouldn't -- but the Heat are going to succeed on the strength of their defensive system, one that has a chance for a historic season.

MiamiHeraldHeat. Crazier Heat stat time: 1st time since ABA-NBA merger a team has held opposing teams starting Fs w/out a FG in back-to-back games.
_________________________________

MiamiHeraldHeat. Crazy-stat time: 323 pts allowed by Heat in 4 games is lowest allowed by league in last 6 yrs, according to ESB.

happy 40th birthday erik spoelstra!

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_CqDk4jAv_Y4/TKwBPfKBLVI/AAAAAAAAE8k/sySgRolzKI4/s1600/13.jpg

petition to change this thread into the rolling Daniel Esq. muses about the Miami Heat thread

haha. i endorse this ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ petition.

it beats discussing politics.

john hollinger has what looks like an interesting article about the heat and lakers on the espn site, but it's behind their paywall, unfortunately. the espn front-page teaser says:

Pythagorean What?The Lakers and Heat are both easy on the eyes but, historically speaking, John Hollinger's mad math methodology really digs one of them.

i assume hollinger "digs" the lakers.

not if he can help it (looool)

surprised anyone still listens to that bum

when they could listen to me

Jordan has insider. Post that article yo

OK, it's only five games.

But after five games, the last four of which were blowout victories, the Miami Heat seem poised to live up to our lofty expectations. After the opening-night stumble in Boston, Miami won four straight by a combined 91 points, and that's with a still-rough-around-the-edges offensive chemistry and Dwyane Wade recovering from a hamstring injury.

The Heat aren't the only team to sport an impressive start, of course. The Lakers are unbeaten after Tuesday night's rout of Memphis, as are the Hawks and Hornets. (Quick side rant: Did Lionel Hollins watch the Finals last season? Kobe Bryant scored 23 points on nine shots in the first half against Grizzlies defenders not named Tony Allen. Allen guarded Kobe for one possession -- yes, just one -- and forced a wild miss that barely grazed the rim.)

Nonetheless, nobody was saying before the season that the Hawks or the Hornets might win 72 games. That's because they won't. And although L.A.'s goose egg in the loss column keeps it ahead of Miami in the standings at the moment, we've already seen what this outfit can do. Win the championship? Perhaps. Win 72? Not bloody likely.

Miami, on the other hand, conjures up a wide range of possibilities, precisely because we haven't seen the limits on what the James-Wade-Bosh partnership can accomplish. We've been wondering all summer if this will be one of the greatest teams of all time or just another nice team. After five games, we're wondering a lot about the former and not so much about the latter. That in itself is a minor accomplishment.

To rank with the all-time greats, obviously, this year's Heat would need to win the championship. But that won't be nearly enough; it's just the minimum threshold. Here are some of the regular-season standards the Heat would need to threaten or exceed, and how they're faring relative to those mile-high standards:

1. Can they win 72?

The Heat are 4-1 at the moment, which puts them on pace to win 66 games for a full season using the avowedly unscientific "if they keep up this pace" method.

Here's a better stab at it: Using our Playoff Odds system that plays out every game for the rest of the season (it's launching soon, don't worry), the Heat project to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. It gives them only an 8.3 percent chance of winning 70 games, a 3.2 percent chance of winning 72, and just a 1.8 percent chance of exceeding 72.

But this may be too pessimistic. Early in the season, the Playoff Odds formula has a significant "regression to the mean" component. In other words, it assumes that a team can't win at the same red-hot pace all season (or lose all of its games, in the case of the Clippers). Ninety-nine percent of the time this makes complete sense -- we don't expect Atlanta or New Orleans to go 82-0 just because they've won a few games to start the year. Even teams that have lengthy early-season success -- for example, Boston's 27-2 start two years ago -- normally cool off considerably.

However, if the Heat happen to be every bit as good as they've shown in the first five games, regressing to the mean treats them too harshly. Based purely on point differential, they're on pace for about a 78-win season using a formula known as the Pythagorean method.

Still, to have a realistic shot at 72 or more wins, I think the Heat will have to stay well ahead of record pace, because they are likely to let off the gas pedal in the final few weeks of the season if they've already clinched the East's top seed. For that reason, I share the Playoff Odds' pessimism, even if my doubts aren't quite as extreme.

2. Can they match the Bulls' best-on-both-ends feat?

The 1995-96 Bulls not only won 72 games, they also were the only team in history to rank No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Coming into the season, one would have thought Miami's biggest challenge in trying to match this feat would be on the defensive end, where teams like Boston and Orlando would present a stiff challenge to claiming the top overall spot. But through five games, Miami's defense has gone gangbusters, with a league-best 87.9 defensive efficiency mark.

It's the offense that's been less sensational. Miami is only fifth on the offensive end at 109.1, although that has come against tough defensive opposition -- in addition to facing the aforementioned Celtics and Magic, the Heat have yet to face a bottom-10 defense. Based on current stats, they won't do so until Game 11 against Phoenix on Nov. 17.

Additionally, the offense would likely be more threatened by one item that's largely out of Miami's control -- injuries. The Heat offense was a train wreck in the opener with Wade returning from a hamstring injury, and seemed the same way in the preseason while Wade sat out. As long as the three stars stay healthy, the top spot in offensive efficiency is likely within reach, but if any of the trio misses extended time, it's likely that at least one other team will surpass them.

3. Can they be the best defensive team of all time?

Of all the items on this list, this one appears to be the most realistic for Miami to achieve. Since the league began tracking turnovers in 1973-74, the top defensive efficiency mark relative to the league belongs to the 2003-04 San Antonio Spurs. That squad posted a 92.3 defensive efficiency mark in a league in which the average was 100.8, making them 8.5 points better than the norm.

(Irony alert: That Spurs team did not win the championship, although four other Spurs teams did. In fact, of the top four all-time defenses, the only one to win it all was the 2007-08 Celtics. On the other hand, that still gives the defenses one more championship than the top four offenses.)

Thus far, the 2010-11 Heat are blowing that mark out of the water. Miami's league-leading 87.9 defensive efficiency is a whopping 14.8 points better than the current league average of 102.7. While we can expect this to even out for a number of reasons -- I doubt, for instance, that their opponents will continue to shoot just 44.0 percent on 2-pointers or brick quite so many free throws -- the Heat have considerable breathing room relative to the record and appear to have committed to dominating at the defensive end of the floor.

4. Can they set the mark for greatest victory margin?

The 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls both outscored the opposition by 12.3 points per game. Miami right now is at a league-best plus-16.6 … but again, it's early. It's not uncommon for teams to be on a record pace for several weeks before cooling off, especially if they're given a favorable early schedule -- which, with 13 of the first 21 games at home, the Heat will have in their favor until the second week in December.

This season's Lakers, at plus-13.3 after four games, also merit mentioning here. They, too, have a very favorable early slate, with 12 of the first 21 at home and most of the opposition appearing to be lottery fodder. Like the Heat, however, they will get a dose of reality with a couple of long cross-country road trips beginning the second week in December.

Thanks j

np

hollinger otm

chris mullin said on some show their week-over-week improvement as far as cohesion compares favorably to The Dream Team

WHO-HOO! thanks, j0/s.

i think mullins point (and hollingers about regression to mean) was that talent will out after you reach a certain level (the fuckoff talent level)

there have been some very good articles lately that explain the heat's defense. this is one of them.

now new jersey's beating the heat.

distressing.

and wade is hurting, too.

what r u guys gonna do with yr lottery pick, pg or c?

i'm thinking point guard. dexter pittman is the middling center of the future.

besides, we're not going to have a lotter pick. we'll be at least fifth in the eastern conference this year.

;)

Q: I know it is early and we should all be patient, but are there any moves that we can make at center? Point guard isn't that bad yet. -- Marcus.

A: I agree that center is more of a concern than point guard, if only because Dwyane Wade and LeBron James can be utilized as primary ballhandlers. As for center, until this past summer's free agents become trade eligible Dec. 15, I think you have to remain in a holding pattern. If he can stay out of foul trouble, figure on Ilgauskas' minutes to be on the rise.

Q: The Heat are empty in the middle. Without one legitimate low-post threat, how can this group ever expect to beat a Boston or an L.A. in a seven-game series? -- Claud.

A: I'm not sure it can, but that also is eight months away. Pat Riley has shown he is capable of making things happen, and there certainly could be buyout options that come available after the trading deadline. There might be more than a few players willing to sacrifice something in their paychecks to play deep into the postseason.

Q: It seems Erick Damper still has yet to sign with Houston (officially). Do you think Heat will have any chance? -- Andy.

A: At this point, the whole thing is confounding. One would think someone would have taken him by now at the minimum.

who's likely to be available at center midseason?

link

so what do we make of lebron bitching about playing too many minutes last night?

he took his talents to south beach to sit on the bench?

He wants to take his talents to south bench.

lebron to cavs in 2011

it's easy to look better during a win-streak, but spoelstra's still in trouble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6n7LWlLOrNk&feature=player_embedded#!