Some questions I have about FT%

Am I right in thinking that pros mostly miss free throws because of tiredness/pressure/compound running-into-people-for-thirtyfive-minutes? Is so, are free throw percentages noticably higher in the first two minutes of a game? Is there any way to check this?

What would guys like Dwight Howard shoot in practice? 80%? More?

Maybe one of the advanced stats sites has data about it. It's certainly something you could get from play-by-play data, but it'd be a pain.

i'm gonna guess big guys like d12 who shoot ~50% from ft are because of substantial suckiness in shooting form tbh

I just find that unbelievable though? Like, in every conceivable way I am 200 times less co-ordinated than DH, I have practiced FTs for like 10 hours total in my life, I basically take each one as a flat footed set shot, and I shoot 60%? Like, I'm not talking about about Shaq who made never practicing his thing or whatever, I'm talking about a dude who actually has a professional whose job it is to teach him how to do this thing.

i think its just physical realities of being a giant man with giant hands trying to maneuver a tiny ball into a hoop several feet away with precision. as a point of comparison, try shooting a youth ball for FTs and see if your % is that good (not tryina be on the offesnive, actually kinda curious, TRY IT AND REPORT BACK IMMEDIATELY).

^^^ when you do this experiment, make sure to adjust the rim to a heigh of like 8 or 9 feet as well

really think poor FT-shooting big men should try underhand rick barry style

i think its just physical realities of being a giant man with giant hands trying to maneuver a tiny ball into a hoop several feet away with precision.

Problem with this is that plenty of big dudes can shoot FTs just fine: Yao is a career 83% free throw shooter, Dirk 87%, Jack Sikma 85%, Brook Lopez 80%, Big Z 78%, Mike Gminski 84%, Brad Miller 80%, McHale 80%, etc.

I think consistency and control of form are the culprit. Some guys seem to have a hard time moving from the run, jump and slam into each other game to a calmer state where they can focus for free throws. But this isn't just bigs (though there are more of them) as there are crappy FT shooting guards too; Jordan Farmar 68%, Rondo 62% (and falling), Quinn Buckner 65%, Sherman Douglas 67%, Pooh Richardson 65%, etc.

those good FT-shooting big men are good shooters in general, and same thing with at least some of those poor FT-shooting guards, right? seems like the thing that is most highly correlated with being a good FT shooter is, y'know, being a good shooter. Big men as a whole don't need that skill in order to make it to the NBA level, whereas smaller guys almost always do.

should say, and vice versa w/those poor FT-shooting guards.

think the "feels like throwing a tennis ball" thing does contribute to shaq's awfulness at least tho

Would be cool to have some available stat for hand size - don't even know how you'd measure it.

Kevin Love is a p.decent free throw shooter with massive hands.

Still curious about the "have a hard time moving from the run, jump and slam into each other game to a calmer state where they can focus for free throws" point - did anyone here play ball at any sort of competitive level? Did you find that to be the case?

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3396/3446290100_46687203bb_z.jpg

I played through high school till I blew out my knee, and yes, sometimes I had a hard time controlling the adrenaline. The awareness needed for playing required me to be as attuned to everything around me as I could be; the squeak of a shoe from outside of my peripheral vision could signal a backdoor cut, the tightening in a thigh muscle could cue me to which way a player was going to explode from the triple threat. When I stepped to the line I had to block out all that heightened awareness so I wasn't distracted by sounds or motion, and had to control my own twitchiness so I was as fluid as possible through the shot. It's one reason why so many players have pre-free throw rituals; for me, three dribbles in my right hand while flexing the fingers in my left, then raise the ball to my chest with both hands, bend at the knees and shoot. It triggered muscle memory as well, "when I do these things I then do this." OCD calming at the line.

I got nervous during games at pretty much all moments! Was a much better player in practice. Thing is FTs was the part of my game I was most confident in, so I'd be more calm at the line than away from it.

Big men as a whole don't need that skill in order to make it to the NBA level, whereas smaller guys almost always do.

― hope this helps (Granny Dainger), Monday, December 13, 2010 11:27 AM Bookmark

But a good big man who can also hit threes is such an asset, because it's tough to stop them without fouling and then they score anyway.

Am I right in thinking that pros mostly miss free throws because of tiredness/pressure/compound running-into-people-for-thirtyfive-minutes?

― Gravel Puzzleworth, Sunday, December 12, 2010 5:12 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

feel like this is the issue and it affects everyone, theres prob lots of guys who can shoot like 99% ft in practice

Yeah, that's why I suggested the first two minutes thing, 'cos no way does say Kobe (career .84) miss one out of every six when he's just at the gym right?

Meant to say FTs, obviously, not threes. xpost

in practice players can also shoot a bunch in a row and sort of get into a groove, while in games they're never shooting more than three at a time. they're doing things that feel much different in between and don't have that immediate muscle memory.

yeah feel like thats part of the phenomenon too - also why 2nd ft% is much higher that 1st

hey have i ever shared w/you all my visionary ft reform rule change concept - its based on the premiss that the dead ball rebound on a 1st free throw attempt is the most tedious part of the game - naturally if you eliminated the least enjoyable aspect then the game as a whole would be more enjoyable

how you do that is only shoot one free throw a trip to the line - if its an and one the shot is a as usual worth one point - if its a shooting foul from a missed shot yr one free throw is worth two points - and if a player is fouled shooting a 3 its worth 'three points'

blammo! i have just eliminated the worst part of basketball! call david stern!

think of it no pointless lo5s inbetween shots anymore!

no dudes switching sides of the lane anymore!

but then I wouldn't get to wonder what is going on with certain dudes on the opposing team who NEED to touch the ball after the 1st FT

haa

That would have eliminated Bogut's ghost fist bumps too, which is one of my favorite NBA moments of the past decade.

Is there a sort of NBA code-of-honor about not fouling weak FT shooters? Dallas are red hot at the moment and they have a starter shooting twenty-six percent - that's 0.5 points per possession! Would the other coaches just blacklist a guy who called up a load of D-leaguers to foul Haywood 30 times a game?

this is basically hack-a-shaq that you're describing, yes?

Shaq was shooting like 55% though? 50% at his worst? Haywood is literally shooting half that.

i think this strategy has been used on the likes of bruce bowen and ben wallace too, but i think its gone out of vogue as a strategy

Is it because it's seen as ineffective, or just bad manners? Like, if you did that all game for a typical game, the Mavs would score 52 points - you could just take Gilbert Arenas contested threes all game and win easily?

problem is haywood is their backup center, only playing 19 min a game. youd have to get into the penalty to do hack-a-haywood, which means anytime u foul anyone like butler or terry or dirk, who are good free throw shooters, free points for the mavs basically.

I rarely post (up) here, but I played 5 years organized ball including 4 years of HS as a 2 guard.

In practice, we would get spontaneous mid-practice FT drills (ie, unexpectedly with elevated HR and fatigue set in). Cold FTs were to be done on your own time. If you were a weak FT shooter in official practice (~<60%), you would get assigned "homework", ie FT throw drills usually run after practice with an asst coach. Usually sets of "lines" and then shoot 4 FTs with a target to make 3. If you missed 2, you were back on the floor touching lines. It sucked for these guys, trust me.

Pressure is being discounted all up ITT. That's cool you can hit 60% at your gym, but try in front of tens of thousands of people screaming and waving streamers and shit. This ain't golf.

Absolutely are poor free throw shooters targeted by the defense to be fouled when the game is close and late. By that same regard, only the best FT shooting players are allowed to touch the ball on offense when the game is close and late. If the game wasn't close and late, you'd risk foul trouble and/or letting the other team going into the bonus. Really this is only a factor close and late.

Do streamers work? Is home FT% noticably different than away FT%?

I don't know firsthand about pro-level visual and audio interference, but at the extreme amateur level I was subject to some heckling because I wore my hair long which was out of fashion at the time, esp for the court. I had a good sense of humor about it and would chuckle along with the more clever ones.

"Home teams have shot free throws +.004 better in both 2004-05 and 2005-06 (season to date)"
http://www.82games.com/random4.htm

That's less than the difference in FG% right?

Is there a sort of NBA code-of-honor about not fouling weak FT shooters? Dallas are red hot at the moment and they have a starter shooting twenty-six percent - that's 0.5 points per possession! Would the other coaches just blacklist a guy who called up a load of D-leaguers to foul Haywood 30 times a game?

― Gravel Puzzleworth, Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:39 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

feel like teams would go to the hack a haywood if they thought he really was a 25% ft shooter but hes 60% for his career so this is prob just a blip - theres a couple other problems w/the hack a approach which is you get yr players into foul trouble and yr team into the penalty and if a guy takes 8 in a row hes prob more likely to get in a groove - be curious to see as study trying to peg when it makes sense to foul a guy - thinking its somewhere a lil south of 50%

most hilarious free throws imo come from bedrins, chuck hayes and of course the shaq daddy