2012 NBA PLAYOFFS: DOO DOO JUMP?

http://i.imgur.com/8zZPg.jpg

not pictured: weed dealer who won't relinquish his entire stash

MATCH UPS

CHI v PHIL
MIAMI v NY
INDY v ORL
BOS v ATL

SA v UTAH
OKC v DAL
LAL v DEN
MEM v LAC

CHI > PHIL in 6 - feel like this is a p god match up for phil if they can get their defense amped back up for the payoffs what w/derrick rose all fd up in the hospital n shit

MIAMI > NY in 5 - the matchups in this one are the most mysterious, like ny has some good 3pt shooters and they should be able to take at least a game via just bombing away, chandler is key in the middle as far as making the big 2.5 into jump shooters, shump will hound wade but then what happens, ny is def at their best w/melo at the 4, the big question mark is how are they gonna guard bron, double team him all the time idk, ny has been playing really well recently melo is on fire, i kinda want to say this will go 6 but i feel like miami will figure the knicks out defensively summoning bad melo, idk abt series maybe it will be interesting

INDY > ORL in 4 - lol orlando lol dwight lol nba

BOS > ATL in 4 - prediction hawks average <80ppg this series

SA > UTAH in 4 - utah is not v good

OKC > DALLAS in 5 - okc runs circles around these old dudes, occasional sights of vintage dirking not withstanding

DEN > LAL in 6 - denver runs bynum off the court for the sake of all that is good and holy

MEM > LAC in 6 - this is really just the worst possible match up for the clips w/tony allen to guard paul and tons of interior size the griz should take this p east, i give l.a. two games just out of respect for the god cp3, im p depressed abt this tbh was psyched to see him go ham but this is just not a cool scenario for that

CHI v PHIL

chi in 6 -- not sure philly will ever reach their potential, def seem stuck in "nice spare parts, need one great player" mode. they played the bulls well a few times this year and think they could take a game or two. will interesting to see how the bulls handle rose.

MIAMI v NY

mia in 5 -- melo was pretty terrifying last year vs boston and i'm sure there will be one game in MSG that the knicks take cuz they shoot 43% from three, but still think this is a largely garbage team overall that the heat will take pretty easily. lebron handles melo pretty well, and after that i'm not sure where they turn. happy that this series is happening tho.

INDY v ORL

indy in 6 -- idk i don't totally trust the pacers, and could see stan helping push orlando into a game 7. but this isn't a team that's gonna win a first round series w/o dwight.

BOS v ATL

bos in 5 -- celtics are old, atlanta will win one game. series should be a war crime tho, at least visually.

---

SA v UTAH

spurs in 4 -- pretty obvious, no?

OKC v DAL

okc in 6 -- don't think dallas really has it this year, and okc should've taken them last year but mavs had that weird comeback pixie dust going all postseason. will be interesting to see how russ plays after he got killed all over the place last year, but i think OKC is ready to take it.

LAL v DEN

lakers in 6 -- don't think denver can handle them inside... they def have the wings to counter kobe and i guess they can hope that he shoots like 38% for the series, but bynum is gonna destroy the nuggets' big guys.

MEM v LAC

clippers in 7 -- pretty even series, but i don't think memphis will have an answer for cp3 unless tony allen really is that good of a defender. should be really fun tho... just think memphis might be getting overrated a bit. tho i could see marc and z-bo totally overwhelming the clippers frontcourt, which is kinda overrated too.

CHI in 5
MIAMI in 5
INDY v ORL uh, pass
BOS in 4

SA in 4
OKC in 6
DEN in 6
LAC in 7

Predicting every playoff round
Here's how every series of the playoffs goes down (PER Diem: April 27, 2012)
Updated: April 27, 2012, 2:34 PM ET
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com

We can look backward, but we can't see forward. And that's sometimes the problem when it comes to projecting the playoffs -- we're looking for the teams that are peaking in April, because that's what we've just seen, when what is far more important is who will be peaking in May and June.

The 2011 Mavs, 2010 Celtics and 2009 Magic should have driven that point home by now. None of them covered themselves in glory during the final month of the season -- in fact, all three were much better earlier the season -- but each started clicking in late April and made a push to become surprise contestants in the NBA Finals.

Lest we think this is common, one should also remember that those three surprise contestants in a row were essentially our first since the Knicks crashed the party in 1999. Every other conference champion this century either had one of the two best records in the conference or, in the case of the 2007 Spurs, an extremely strong case on other grounds that they were the league's best team.

I say this as a reminder that strange things can and do happen in the playoffs. Somewhere there's a DeShawn Stevenson or a Rafer Alston lurking, ready to make shots he's been missing his entire career. Somewhere, perhaps, there's a team ready to jell in May and shock everybody.

Or, alternatively, maybe the Spurs will just thrash everybody and everything will go completely to form.

We don't know, and that's the beauty of it. But while we can't say what will happen, we can absolutely make some educated guesses about what is likely to happen. Speaking of which, you'll notice I've picked a lot of these series to end in five games. That's no disrespect to the underdogs; it's just that with three of the first five on the favorites' court, the most likely outcome is home-court team in five.

Finally, along with each pairing I've included the season series, the Power Ranking, and, just for kicks, how Accuscore's Playoff Predictor sees it:

FIRST ROUND

The historical rule of thumb for first-round series is very important: if you don't have home-court advantage, and you didn't at least split your season series, you can pretty much forget about advancing. In the last 53 instances of this, the home-court team is 51-2.

The two exceptions this century both were in bizarre circumstances: in 2009, an injury-riddled (and basically coach-less) Denver team lost to a Utah team that finished with the same record and a superior point differential, and a San Antonio team that had a major point differential advantage (plus-5.1 to plus-2.7) but finished five games worse than Dallas knocked off the Mavs.

That's the list. The big recent first-round upsets -- Memphis and Golden State winning as No. 8 seeds, for instance -- have all come in series where the road team split or won the season series.

The implications, obviously, are that Boston, Orlando and the Clippers have a much better shot of advancing than the other five clubs without home-court advantage. And while this isn't the only factor, I'm not inclined to bet against a trend that's 51-2 without a darned good reason.

EAST

(1) Bulls vs. (8) Sixers
Season: 2-1 Bulls
Power Rankings: Bulls 107.1, Sixers 102.9
Accuscore: Bulls 80%, Sixers 20%

Let's start with some low-hanging fruit. The Sixers can't score and the Bulls are impossible to score on. Any questions?

In all seriousness, Philly could make this somewhat interesting. They hammered the Bulls earlier this year and their fast-break game is the perfect antidote for Chicago's penchant for crashing the offensive boards. Additionally, the Sixers appear to have finally figured out that Evan Turner can only play with Lou Williams; he has a negative point differential in two-man combinations with Andre Iguodala, Jrue Holiday and Jodie Meeks but is plus-6.9 points per 48 minutes with Williams, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool.

Nonetheless, the Bulls have shown that they can beat top-notch teams even with Derrick Rose injured or limited. This is a perfect series for him to play himself back into shape, with the key for Chicago being to wrap things up quickly and get Rose and Deng some rest before the real battles start.

Pick: Bulls in 5

(4) Celtics vs. (5) Hawks
Season: Celtics 2-1
Power Rankings: Celtics 104.5 Hawks 103.0
Accuscore: Celtics 65%, Hawks 35%

Again, for posterity: Although the Celtics are the No. 4 seed, Atlanta has home-court advantage by virtue of having a better record. The Hawks also won't lack for bulletin board material; Kevin Garnett called Jeff Teague "a nobody" earlier this year and the Celtics basically tanked a game in Atlanta last week based on the arrogant logic that they didn't need home-court advantage to beat the Hawks.

But this series won't be won on the bulletin board. If the Hawks had two centers, I would pick them to win. If they had one center, I would think very hard about it. But with zero? Yah, that's gonna be a problem. Al Horford is a no-go for this series, and Zaza Pachulia is questionable with a sprained foot, leaving the Hawks likely starting Jason Collins token minutes at the 5 and going long stretches with Josh Smith in the middle.

Against a Boston team that doesn't bother contesting offensive rebounds (the Celtics set the record for the worst offensive rebound rate in history) that may not be as big a problem as it is against other opponents, but it's equally important that it subtracts two incredibly useful players from Atlanta's rotation. Josh Smith-Ivan Johnson has actually been a very effective frontcourt (plus-53 in 379 minutes) and we'll probably see a lot of it in this series, but extended daylight exposes Johnson's proclivity for fouls and turnovers.

The Hawks have had a lot of success playing Joe Johnson at 3 and Kirk Hinrich at 2, and Hinrich does a great job chasing Ray Allen through screens. Nonetheless, the overwhelming stat here is on Boston's side: when Kevin Garnett plays, the Celtics are really good. Boston outscores opponents by 10.71 points per 100 possessions with KG on the court, according to basketballvalue.com; this trend is consistent across nearly all their lineup combinations.

Overall, I expect an extremely ugly, defensive series much like the two regular-season games they played with their starters (Boston won both, 79-76 in regulation and 88-86 in overtime). It will be closer than you might think, but Boston will prevail in any scenario where Garnett stays on the court all series.

Pick: Celtics in 6

(2) Heat vs. (7) Knicks
Season: Heat 3-0
Power Rankings: Heat 104.6, Knicks 104.0
Accuscore: Heat 83%, Knicks 17%

The marquee series of the first round gives us our first-ever pairing of LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, not to mention four of the top five picks in the star-studded 2003 draft. (Darko Milicic will be watching from somewhere in St. Paul, presumably.)

New York has a few items in its favor in this matchup -- the Knicks' 3-point heavy offense pairs well against the Heat's inability to guard the long ball, they have enough wing defenders to handle the Wade-LeBron combo, and you don't need a backup center against Miami (or even a starter, really).

Unfortunately, New York's stubborn commitment to making the Melo-Amare Stoudemire combo work in the frontcourt will be their undoing. New York has been outscored this season when Anthony, Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler play together; with Anthony at the 4, on the other hand, they've been brilliant. Start Anthony at the 4, bring Stoudemire off the bench, and New York might really have a shot at this.

The Knicks are a better team than their win-loss indicates and they finished the year strong. But with their conventional lineup, the Knicks will need to shoot ridiculously well on 3s to win the series. I see them having two lights-out games from deep to extend the series, but that's as far as I can ride them.

Pick: Heat in 6

(3) Pacers vs. (6) Magic
Season: Magic 3-1
Power Rankings: Pacers 102.8, Magic 99.5
Accuscore: Pacers 80%, Magic 20%

Let's not waste a ton of time here. If Dwight Howard were healthy this would be a great series; without him it's a mismatch. Indy is healthy and its starting five has been extremely effective as a unit. Orlando counters with a wounded Glen Davis, no stars, and virtually no bench. If the Magic win this one, Stan Van Gundy should be allowed to fire Howard.

Pick: Pacers in 4

WEST

(1) Spurs vs. (8) Jazz
Season: Spurs 3-1
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Jazz 101.9
Accuscore: Spurs 93% Jazz 7%

Could Utah make this interesting? Perhaps. Size gives San Antonio some problems, and the monstrous Millsap-Jefferson-Favors frontcourt the Jazz have rolled out of late has been incredibly effective. Additionally, Utah stinks against zones, and the Spurs hardly ever play zone.

Nonetheless, I just don't see how the Jazz will get any stops. Utah is by and large awful against the pick-and-roll, and the Spurs have been carving up teams with that play all season. The Jazz's defense at the point of attack would have to dramatically improve to give them much of a chance against this Spurs juggernaut.

Keep an eye on the Jazz because in another year or two they're going to be handful, but they can't handle this big a step up in class just yet. Even when the Spurs sat their three stars in Salt Lake City, the Jazz barely beat them.

Pick: Spurs in 5

(4) Grizzlies vs. (5) Clippers
Season: Clippers 2-1
Power Rankings: Clippers 103.4, Grizzlies 102.5
Accuscore: Grizzlies 62%, Clippers 38%

These two foes have a lot in common. Both relied heavily on their starting units and showed signs of running out of gas down the stretch. Both have worrisome minor injuries to key players -- Chris Paul's groin, Marc Gasol's knee. And both racked up a lot of wins in the final month against dubious schedule quality.

The fact that the Clippers won the season series puts this one "in play" based on my guidelines above; nonetheless, I'm going with Memphis. The Clippers' best lineups this season all featured Chauncey Billups, who won't be participating. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin on the court together the Clippers were plus-7.7 points per 48 minutes, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool, which is good but not overwhelming.

Memphis, meanwhile, was plus-7.4 with Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley and Tony Allen together, but that figure soared into double digits once Zach Randolph joined the fray. I'm still not sure how close to last year's Z-Bo he is, but the good news for Memphis is he probably doesn't need to be quite that good for the Griz to advance.

Finally, there's the little matter of the sideline matchup. Lionel Hollins coaches by feel and doesn't always feel what the math says, but he's developed a fairly strong sixth sense for which buttons to push with this group. Vinny Del Negro is a pleasant enough guy who mostly got this team to play hard for him, but he's not exactly the Bobby Fischer of the clipboard.

This is going to be a fascinating series thanks to some killer matchups -- Tony Allen guarding Chris Paul, Z-Bo on Blake Griffin, Memphis' swarming hands against the Clippers' precision offense -- but my Grizz Fever is starting to burn up again.

Pick: Grizzlies in 7

(2) Thunder vs. (7) Mavericks
Season: Thunder 3-1
Power Rankings: Thunder 106.9, Mavs 101.6
Accuscore: Thunder 73%, Mavs 27%

This is not a great matchup for Oklahoma City, as we saw in last year's Western Conference finals and again in this year's regular season. Despite the way Dallas stumbled and staggered through the regular season, it gave the Thunder all they could handle in the four meetings and it took a miracle shot by Kevin Durant to avoid a split of the four games.

Dallas will make the Thunder uncomfortable again in this one, with its heavy use of zone defenses. The Thunder were only 16th in points per play against zones, according to Synergy Sports, and the Mavs used that defense more than any other team except Golden State.

Additionally, we don't know how James Harden is going to come back from his concussion -- setbacks aren't uncommon with this injury -- and the Thunder don't have the depth to easily withstand his loss.

Ultimately, however, Dallas' offensive woes will allow Oklahoma City to survive. The Mavs won the title last year playing offense, scoring at a blistering 110.2 points per 100 possessions that was by far the best mark of the 2011 postseason, but that attack has been AWOL all season: Dallas finished just 20th in offensive efficiency.

The Mavs also have something of a Jason Terry conundrum lineup-wise -- their two-man game with Terry and Dirk Nowitzki is superb, but their defense suffers mightily with Terry on the court. Dallas gave up 7.5 points per 100 possessions more with Jet out there, and for some reason the Terry-Shawn Marion combo has been a particularly awful look for Dallas.

The Mavs have wobbled along like a one-and-done team all season -- no big shocker in light of the decision not re-sign Tyson Chandler -- and while they'll make the Thunder look ragged and impatient at times, I just don't think they can score enough to win more than once or twice.

Pick: Thunder in 5

(3) Lakers vs. (6) Nuggets
Season: Lakers 3-1
Power Rankings: Nuggets 103.7, Lakers 101.2
Accuscore: Lakers 60%, Nuggets 40%

If there's a series that's tempting me to bet against 51-2, this is the one. This could absolutely, positively be the first-round upset that very few see coming.

Let's run through the numbers. Denver had a better plus-minus on the season than the Lakers, even though it dealt with far more injuries; this was true even before the ridiculousness in Minnesota last night. L.A., in fact, finished with the worst Power Ranking of any Western playoff team; again, that was true even before last night.

Denver was a wide-open missed layup away from splitting the series and rendering that 51-2 stat irrelevant. Denver is 27-16 when Danilo Gallinari plays and its worst lineup combinations (according to NBA.com's stats tool) mostly involve Nene and Timofey Mozgov, neither of whom we'll be seeing much of in this series. (Nene has been traded to Washington.)

Contrast that with the Lakers, who won't have Metta World Peace for the first six games, and he's a player who figures heavily in most of the Lakers' best lineups this season. I normally would give the Lakers a big advantage in that they'll rely less on their awful bench in a playoff series, but this season I think that's more of a two-way street -- the same bench awfulness also caused them to put a ton of mileage on their starters. Kobe Bryant, for instance, hasn't been the same since the first month of the season, although his recent injury may be a blessing in disguise that regenerates his legs.

There's more. L.A.'s biggest weakness -- defending quick point guards -- is a major weakness against Ty Lawson and Andre Miller. Also, I'm not covering this series and thus won't be around to curse the Nuggets.

L.A. does have two big items in its favor. First, I'm not sure the Nuggets can handle the Lakers' size; this Al Harrington-at-the-5 stuff isn't going to fly against Andrew Bynum. Also, I think the additions of Ramon Sessions and Jordan Hill address major shortcomings on the L.A. side.

Ultimately I changed my pick six times in half an hour before settling on L.A. because, at the end of the day, I'm not sure my case for Denver is ironclad enough to bet against a trend that's 51-2. But everybody is sleeping on this series -- it should be a barnburner.

Pick: Lakers in 7

Conference semis, conference finals and Finals picks coming soon

INDY > ORL in 4 - lol orlando lol dwight lol nba

BOS > ATL in 4 - prediction hawks average <80ppg this series

SA > UTAH in 4 - utah is not v good

^^^^

*jizzes*

xxp

the others
CHI 5
NY 7
OKC 5
DEN 4
MEM 6

DEN 4 B-)

lol trollin

;-)

due to shortend lockout season, all series will be sweeps

hollinger cont

CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

In the conference semis, none of that head-to-head stuff applies. Hey, I don't make the rules here, I'm just telling you that the trendline that is so overwhelming in the first round completely disappears afterward.

For example, last season the Lakers beat the Mavs 110-82 two weeks before the playoffs started to complete a 2-1 win of the season series, and they had home-court advantage against Dallas in the second round. Not much good it did 'em. Similarly, Chicago's season-series sweep over Miami last season was of little portent in the Eastern Conference finals.

EAST

(1) Bulls vs. (4) Celtics
Season: Bulls 3-1
Power Rankings: Bulls 107.1, Celtics 104.5
Accuscore: Bulls 62%, Celtics 38%

Three years ago Boston and Chicago gave us one of the most exhilarating first-round series in history. I'm wondering if we'll get something close to a repeat. These are two elite defensive teams playing basically the same defensive system with a manic intensity none of the other 28 teams comes close to matching. Chicago led the league in defensive efficiency, Boston was a close second, and nobody else was within a point of them per 100 possessions.

While the regular season might make you think a huge gap separates these teams, I'm not sure that's really true. Take away Boston's second unit and Chicago's second unit -- one among the league's worst, the other among its best -- and I'm not sure much separates these teams. With the benches likely to see much less action in a playoff series, that's an important distinction.

This won't be easy on the eyes at times because of all the defense, but the Bulls' ultimate advantage is at the other end. Boston just doesn't score all that much -- the Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency and dead last in field-goal attempts.

Pick: Bulls in 7

(2) Heat vs. (3) Pacers
Season: Heat 3-1
Power Rankings: Heat 104.6, Pacers 102.8
Accuscore: Heat 76%, Pacers 24%

Here's the other potential barnburner that nobody is talking about. Indy is better than you think -- the Pacers are tough defensively, they're basically completely healthy, and their size on the wings allows them to match up well against Miami. With George Hill at the point, the starting five outscores opponents by 15.1 points per 100 possessions, and regardless of who plays point, the other four starters are plus-10.0, according to NBA.com -- a number that nearly matches Miami's output with its three stars in the game.

The problem is actually the rest of the game. Indy's bench is secretly terrible; virtually every bench unit combination has been outscored this season, and a few combinations have endured savage beatings. (Lou Amundson-Dahntay Jones, for instance, is a minus-7.0 per 48 in 519 minutes, while Collison-Tyler Hansbrough is minus-5.2 in 555 minutes.) The Pacers' best bet is probably to use a six-man rotation as much as possible, with Danny Granger moving to a smallball 4 and David West getting some burn at center, but in a compressed series with a back-to-back in the middle that may prove extremely difficult in practice.

In the big picture, Indy is a good team on the upswing, but this is the part where they come oh so close, lose painfully, and gain from the experience.

Pick: Heat in 7

WEST

(1) Spurs vs. (4) Grizzlies
Season: Spurs 4-0
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Grizzlies 102.5
Accuscore: Spurs 80%, Grizzlies 20%

It's a rematch of last season's huge upset, in which No. 8 Memphis knocked off top-seeded San Antonio, and a few trends from a year ago remain. Memphis did an amazing job taking away San Antonio's 3-point game a year ago, and that will be Job 1 again this time around. The Grizzlies also have a matchup problem for the Spurs in the Randolph-Gasol frontcourt, and this time around they have Rudy Gay on the wing too.

Alas, San Antonio did not stand still. Manu Ginobili is healthy this time, and the supporting cast is much better. Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter give the Spurs more options for defending Randolph, plus the Spurs aren't facing the Z-Bo of a year ago. Also, the second units are going to matter in a compressed series with a back-to-back in the middle, and the Spurs' bench is going to blow the Grizzlies' off the floor. Finally, there's the issue of accumulated rest. San Antonio is fresh as a daisy; the Grizzlies have been riding the starters all year and may very well be coming off a grueling seven-game slog with no rest.

For all those reasons, I think San Antonio avenges last season and emerges relatively easily as a conference finalist.

Pick: Spurs in 5

(2) Thunder vs. (3) Lakers
Season: Thunder 2-1
Power Rankings: Thunder 106.9, Lakers 101.2
Accuscore: Thunder 86%, Lakers 14%

It's our two favorite talented-but-frustrating hero-ball teams, in a heated rematch that sees Metta World Peace return to what will likely be an angry welcome in OKC. As long as James Harden is healthy, however, I'm not sure the Lakers have the firepower to hang with the Thunder. The big picture matchup says it's one Big 3 against the other, with the supporting casts on either side playing comparatively minor roles.

But look deeper. The home-court advantage and compressed schedule both will weigh heavily in the favor of the younger Thunder's legs, and their Big 3 also plays nice with each other much better than the Lakers' trio. Oklahoma City outscores opponents by 10.6 points per 48 minutes with their three stars on the floor, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool; the comparable number for the Lakers is a mere 3.2. In fact, the Lakers don't have any three-man combos that played at least 150 minutes and outscored opponents by more than 10 points per 48 minutes.

The other variable is which team will do more to make us throw things at the end of games. Oklahoma City reliably ends up with Kevin Durant shooting a 28-foot contested 3s during crunch time; in the last three minutes of one-possession games, 31 of his 58 shots have been 3s and he has zero assists. This has also been Kobe's M.O. for the past few years, but of late he's shown a willingness to defer to the more effective option of Andrew Bynum.

A crunch-time snafu or two by the Thunder could allow the Lakers to extend this series. But I still have a hard time seeing them win it.

Pick: Thunder in 5

CONFERENCE FINALS

Sorry to be so chalky here, but the fact is four teams have dominated the entire regular season, so it would be a little bizarre to go off kilter and pick somebody else to show up at this point. Not saying it can't happen; just saying it's probably not the way to bet.

(1) Spurs vs. (2) Thunder
Season: Spurs 2-1
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Thunder 106.9
Accuscore: Thunder 51%, Spurs 49%

The Thunder are really talented and nearly always play hard. They don't always play smart, however, and they're about to get a serious education in this series. I expect the Spurs' offensive precision to pick them apart, and while Durant and Westbrook will get some of those points back for the Thunder, I still have a hard time picking OKC when the Spurs basically used the regular season as a warm-up exercise and still outpaced them in the standings.

My favorite stat: San Antonio's three stars -- Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan -- have only played 297 minutes together the entire season because Ginobili missed half the year and the Spurs have been so proactive about resting players. When they do play together? San Antonio outscores opponents by 17.8 points per 48 minutes. Again, that's not a typo: 17.8.

The good news for the Thunder is that the Spurs have a few ineffective lineups. The bad news is that most of them included Richard Jefferson, now with Golden State. San Antonio's bench won't be as much of a factor as it was in the regular season, but they'll still run the Thunder's subs off the floor when they're matched up. And that Big 3 that has played just four minutes per game together this season will get closer to 20 minutes of family time a night in this series.

Pick: Spurs in 5

(1) Bulls vs. (2) Heat
Season: Tied 2-2
Power Rankings: Bulls 107.1, Heat 104.6
Accuscore: Bulls 58%, Heat 42%

We haven't had two No. 1 seeds meet in the Finals since 2008, when the Lakers played Boston. Prior to that, believe it or not, it hadn't happened since 2000. And I'm guessing it won't happen this year either. Chicago actually has a tough road just to get to this point -- Boston won't be a pushover, especially given the Bulls' injuries -- and unfortunately the Heat may have too much star power for them.

I would like Chicago better, actually, if the Bulls would just go ahead and put Ronnie Brewer back in the starting lineup, use Kyle Korver as the lone wing off the bench, and tell Richard Hamilton it was great and all but they just want to be friends. Chicago's starting lineup has been significantly less effective with Hamilton on the floor this season, and he doesn't bring much defensively to a matchup against Dwyane Wade.

Here's the key stat for Miami: The Heat outscored opponents by 12.8 points per 48 minutes when their three stars play together, and by 7.4 when at least two of them play together. In all other situations they've been outscored.

Guess what? "All other situations" isn't happening in this series. Miami will nearly always have two of its three stars on the court, and in those situations Chicago's on-paper advantage evaporates. Throw in the ongoing health question marks with the Bulls, and the scales tilt slightly in Miami's favor.

Slightly. I won't be shocked at all if Chicago wins. It's just not how I would bet.

Pick: Heat in 6

NBA FINALS

(2) Heat vs. (1) Spurs
Season: Heat 1-0
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Heat 104.6
Accuscore: Spurs 53%, Heat 47%

If you haven't figured this out by now, I'm all-in on San Antonio. The Spurs' best players are in far better shape physically than anybody else's, their bench is kicking serious butt, they can match up any big, small or anything in between, and they've taken steps to address their biggest shortcoming, defending post-up 4s.

Statistically, the lineup data backs the Spurs, too. San Antonio's Big 3, when on the court together, has actually been even more effective than Miami's. The same applies when only two of the three stars share the floor.

And they're still gaining steam. The Spurs outscored opponents by over 15 points per game over the final 20; what stands out about that is that they were resting their best players heavily in that stretch and still destroyed all comers. They're 21-2 in their past 23 games; one of the two losses was a game against Utah in which they opted not to play their three stars. If New York or L.A. had a stretch like this it would break the Internet but because it's San Antonio hardly anyone is discussing it.

So, yes, I expect the Spurs to win it all. But let me offer solace for fans of the other 15 teams: It's been a while since I got this right. Strange stuff can and will happen during the next two months, and that's the best part of the playoffs.

Nonetheless, the odds say that we'll have fiesta No. 5 on the Riverwalk this June.

Pick: Spurs in 6

Spurs are a respectable enough choice, but there are 4 or 5 teams with a good shot this year. If it does come down to Heat vs. Spurs, and the Spurs are all healthy, then I'd go with the Spurs over the Heat, too.

Those hollinger pieces should come with a spoiler alert

pruiti http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7862612/lebron-james-kobe-bryant-new-york-knicks-one-x-factor-watch-every-first-round-series-nba-playoffs

pruiti needs to be able to feed his articles into a machine that make them interesting to read

hah

chandler has the flu btw

netw3rk ‏ @netw3rk Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Maybe Tyson is just faking like MJ was. *runs away*

CHI v PHIL bulls 5 i mean
MIAMI v NY heats 5 east first rd is boring
INDY v ORL pacers 4 gettin sleepy here
BOS v ATL celtics 4 sleeepy

SA v UTAH spurs 4, jazz are an appetizer.
OKC v DAL thunders 6 dirk u r the ppl's champion :(
LAL v DEN nuggets 7 fuck it
MEM v LAC grizzlies 7 dark days for socal

zach lowe links

general playoff storylines post http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/04/27/key-questions-storylines-for-playoffs/?sct=nba_t11_a0

bulls/sixers http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ian_thomsen/04/27/bulls.sixers/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a1
heat/knicks http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/zach_lowe/04/27/heat.knicks/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a2
pacers/magic http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/chris_mannix/04/26/pacers.magic/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a3
hawks/celtics http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/ian_thomsen/04/26/celtics.hawks/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a4

spurs/jazz http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/zach_lowe/04/26/spurs.jazz/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a5
thunder/mavs http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/04/27/thunder.mavericks/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a6
lakers/nuggz http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/lee_jenkins/04/27/lakers.nuggets/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a7
clips/grizz http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/lee_jenkins/04/26/grizzlies.clippers/index.html?sct=nba_t11_a8

Simmons' obligatory 15k words: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7863321/nba-playoffs-preview

CHI v PHIL - CHI in 5
MIAMI v NY - MIA in 4
INDY v ORL - INDY in 4
BOS v ATL - BOS in 6

SA v UTAH - SA in 4
OKC v DAL - OKC in 5
LAL v DEN - LAL in 5
MEM v LAC - MEM in 6

CHI v PHIL - CHI in 5
MIAMI v NY - MIA in 5
INDY v ORL - INDY in 4
BOS v ATL - BOS in 6

SA v UTAH - SA in 5
OKC v DAL - OKC in 5
LAL v DEN - LAL in 7
MEM v LAC - MEM in 7

rooting for the clippers and nuggets tho

Metta WorldPeace ‏ @MettaWorldPeace Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
I'm out socially right now..Lots of girls.. Just conversation.. But they scared to sit next to me.The afraid of my elbows.Not a good feeling

metta world friendzone

it's not going to end well for Metta, is it

cock blocked by ones own elbows, harsh

Thx for the dn, mwp

AMPED

o jeez

Paul Flannery ‏ @Pflanns Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Ray Allen: "If I could, I would get surgery tomorrow." http://bit.ly/IZLuOK

calf reduction surgery

we we we we so excited

bunch of good video breakdowns of playoff matchups here http://www.hickory-high.com

ITS ON

Chi in 4 and Phi never breaks 80pts
Mia in 6
Bos in 6
Ind in 4 aka who cares

Spurs in 4 lol utah
Okc in 4 SUP Y'ALL
Griz in 7
LAL in 6 also w /a cheap Bynum hit that suspends him next round

I think my only real challop is I think MIA/NYC will be all close games

this really is a game of runs just like they say isnt it, has anyone mentioned that

men at a work a new comedy abt men at work and by work we mean play

omg a h8 these weak ass charge calls so much

heaven forbid you brush kyle korvers chest while going by him

*lovingly brushes kyle korvers chest*

raise your hand if you called rip hamiltons 19 points on 7 shots through 3 quarters

i'm only catching parts of this, but did you guys see cj watson's wraparound assist to noah? that was nuts

SebastianPruiti ‏ @SebastianPruiti Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Why was Rose in?

Homework Liker ‏ @homework_liker Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
doug collins trying not to do a jig

rose hurt his left knee pretty bad at the end of that game

pharmacy gorilla ‏ @radiokeller Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
oh shit, rose is hurt bad

not that he needed the money

sheed, right?

he still got paid i think or got bought out for a reasonable amount

pp is not walking away from almost 17m and a shot at a team that's almost as good or better next year, i kind of forgot that if kg comes back at a more reasonable $ amount and ray does the same or walks, they actually will have some free agent money for the first time since 08. not that there's much available this year but apparently basically every nba player wants to play for doc for some reason

everybody loves doc

hes a "no BS" coach i assume

i kinda doubt the celtics will be as good or better next year.

ive learned my lesson saying that about the celtics and spurs year after year

the celtics will probably be better next year

they weren't amazing this year and only reached the ECF bcuz of rose's injury, but they'll be a bit younger next year as they shift more minutes to bradley and green (& maybe whoever they get in the draft) and with the schedule expanding again they'll be in the hunt for a top 4 seed along with the heat, atlanta, indiana and i guess the bulls.

i'd be surprised if the ECF next year wasn't indy-miami, tho

i think ainge will trade green, stagnates offense so much

idk, he's always had a weird fascination with him. also he gives the celtics some line up flexibility, and since he's coming off heart surgery he'll be pretty cheap. i don't think he's really all that great, but danny likes him.

haberstroh suggests that should try and sign oj mayo

could be worse

i'd be cool w that

btw dude from the SA paper speculated that garnett would fit well on the spurs

i would bug out, just double down on old man twin towers, make this happen bball jesus

that would be nuts... personally i don't see how the celtics let him bolt but i guess SA could offer him three years or something

TImmy D and Garnett together? lol those dudes hate each other don't they?

oh yeah by the tim duncan is signed, spurs will be over the cap tho not luxury tax, so they could rly only offer MLE. i dont think this scenario happens unless (1) celtics explode everything (2) duncan is drugged the whole summer and when he comes to, KG is hovering over him with his crazy eyes "WHATS GOOD, TEAMMATE"

so not gonna happen

it should only be allowed to happen if they have a tv show where theyre roommates too

i dont think this scenario happens unless (1) celtics explode everything (2) duncan is drugged the whole summer and when he comes to, KG is hovering over him with his crazy eyes "WHATS GOOD, TEAMMATE"

― he bit me (it felt like a diss) (m bison), Monday, June 11, 2012 10:33 AM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is a profound vision

the way KG played this year there's no way he's gonna son anywhere for an MLE

they weren't amazing this year and only reached the ECF bcuz of rose's injury, but they'll be a bit younger next year as they shift more minutes to bradley and green (& maybe whoever they get in the draft) and with the schedule expanding again they'll be in the hunt for a top 4 seed along with the heat, atlanta, indiana and i guess the bulls.

i'd be surprised if the ECF next year wasn't indy-miami, tho

― J0rdan S., Monday, June 11, 2012 10:13 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah idunno i see 4th in the east as their ceiling, and barring another catastrophic injury to one of te leagues 10 best players they're not getting back to the ECF. and let's not forget there's a 100% chance one of their best players is hurt for a significant part of the season

they could make it back to the ECF final if they could avoid the heat in the second round. if indy doesn't add a big piece i don't think they're definitively better than the celtics in a seven game series. a KG/pierce/rondo/bass team will definitely have a good shot to get back there in a rose-less east.

saying the fourth seed is their ceiling is putting a lot of faith in atlanta or the bulls, who are playing basically the entire season w/o their best player and prob at least a few months w/o deng. dwight will almost certainly be gone from orlando, too.

well again you're assuming pierce and garnett don't significantly regress, which i'd bet they will. and the bulls are good enough to make the playoffs easily without rose, and whenever he comes back they're a top 3 team again. it'll depend on the seedlings I guess

i don't see why pierce & KG are going to significantly regress... the east is weak imo & the roster will be better on paper, assuming they find a legitimate solution at SG.

you're a bit more optimistic about the bulls than i am... you're going out on a pretty big limb imo assuming rose is the same player (and the bulls are the same team) after missing nearly an entire year rehabbing from a torn ACL

Pierce has shown zero signs of regression thus far. If there is any, I would doubt it would be significant. Garnett I don't know; this playoff run might have taken the last of his greatness.

heat & pacers are guaranteed top 2 teams. i don't see anyone who is a lock after that.

atlanta may decide to trade josh smith. the bulls imo are going to be a mess... they may lose asik and cj watson, deng is intent on playing in the olympics and deferring wrist surgery so that his recovery will stretch into the beginning of the regular season. the sixers may shoot up the standings but there's always the doug collins thing. orlando is a total wild card. the knicks are no better than a sixth seed, if they're lucky.

i alwayas think the celtics r gonna fall off bigtime, lol they are SO OLD, they are still so old even more older

yeah but their old players are REALLY GOOD & they know how to deal with their age. also they do have some youth. idk. the east just looks insanely weak to me next year.

its basically unprecedented to have three players that age still playing so well on one team

obvs its a current league wide phenomenon but just super pointed on the c's

rondo + bradley for howard DONE DEAL

here's the east next year imo

1 heat
2 pacers
3 hawks
4 celtics
5 sixers
6 bulls
7 knicks
8 bucks

looks abt right, tho i could see cleveland or detroit making a play for those last couple spots

if the nets somehow get dwight & deron that's a top 3 team -- i don't think that's happening tho

detroit is still a weird team... stuck b/w old & young

the only thing the nets r getting is SCREWED ahahahahah

btw read a piece yesterday abt a rally outside the new stadium w/a bunch of the local leaders who were key to pushing the project through complaining abt how ratner did them wrong, fn marks each one

made u fools a thread already

2012 NBA Offseason Speculatin' and Spectatin'

Not really playoff related, but w/e: They said if the prince puts his fork down and stops eating, you all better stop eating. And Charles said, Well, I hope he stops when I'm done eating my meal, because I'm eating my meal. (short GQ oral history of the Dream Team)

Hubbard: One time they were playing against Venezuela, and the guy who was guarding Magic kept on saying, "I need your shoes! I need your shoes!" During the game. And Magic goes, "Look, I need my shoes!"

felt kinda short, that story. should be a book.

do i really have 2 listen 2 ed burns narrate this dream team doc

"compupost who is better, rondo or deng?"

Wait what? this was a thing? Musta been before my time.

yeah this was never argued. you guys should work for RNC.

have you spent the past 2 months reading this thread like a book?

but yeah, granny's right. the argument was who is a "better" and "more varied" offensive player, which requires enough logical hoop-jumping to make reince priebus proud

rondo is a better offensive and defensive player. but other teams don't play off deng 5 feet daring him too shoot. the end.

ha that revive was priceless.

the end.