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― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 16:59 (thirteen years ago)
Here are my player scouting reports and 2012-13 projections for the Philadelphia 76ers. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '11-12.)
PROJECTED STARTERS
JRUE HOLIDAY, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.23.96.216.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big, quick point guard with good quickness and hands. Improved defender.+ Struggling to convert talent into production offensively. Doesn't draw fouls.+ Not a pure point guard. Needs to shoot more 3s. Good midrange shooter.
AnalysisIs the system holding him back, or is Holiday doing this on his own? His third season was a major disappointment, as he showed no progress from his first two, and the question is whether that's because his role was so limited in this system, or because he's hitting the limits of his potential.
Holiday is only 21 and entered last season as a major breakout candidate, but most of his numbers went south. He was 50th among point guards in pure point rating, 44th in true shooting percentage, and only in the middle of the pack in usage rate, and did nothing dramatically better than league-average offensively.
Holiday shot the ball adequately from 3 (38.0 percent) but once again took an exceptionally small portion of his shots from behind the arc. He shot a very solid 40.9 percent from outside 10 feet, and if he can convert some of those 2s to 3s he'll have a lot more value.
Meanwhile, he also has to draw fouls and get to the basket -- two areas he really struggled last season. Holiday was 56th out of 70 point guards in free throw rate, which is unacceptable for a player with his size and quickness. Meanwhile, he only shot 53.6 percent at the rim.
So if he's not a great finisher, and he's not a great passer, and he's not a great shooter, then … well, what is he?
One thing he is, at least, is a solid defender. Holiday had an easier time navigating pick-and-roll defense last season, and otherwise was very good. He's big for the position, quick, likes to pressure the ball, and has good hands. Synergy rated him as one of the league's best point guards, and other data supported the idea that he was a net positive.
JASON RICHARDSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.24.92.513.0(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ High-jumping wing with great elevation on jumper. Weak off-dribble game.+ Two-footed leaper who needs to stop and gather near basket. Good rebounder.+ Subpar defensive player. Lacks lateral quickness. Would benefit from move to 3.
AnalysisRichardson's steady descent continued unabated, shooting just 36.8 percent on 3s and, even worse, losing his finishing skills. Richardson made only 44.2 percent inside the arc and had one of the lowest free throw rates in the league; included in that was an abysmal 28.6 percent mark on long 2s. Other than 3s, the two hallmarks of his game had been post-ups and easy transition baskets at the rim, but he declined dramatically on both last season.
Nothing else improved to offset it. Richardson had a career-low rebound rate and shot a career-low from the free throw line, although defensively he did a solid job by his recent standards. While he's a good leaper, Richardson does not move well laterally and generally struggles at this end. However, he played more at the 3 than in other seasons and this appeared to help him. He's pretty big for a 2 and can jump, so defending bigger players offsets some of his quickness deficit.
Also, Richardson remains an extreme low-mistake offensive player, sporting the fifth-lowest turnover ratio among shooting guards. Most of his shots are catch-and-shoot or catch-and-dunk; in fact he hardly ever dribbles. Given that formula, he can still be an impactful player when the shots are falling.
EVAN TURNER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.48.44.413.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big wing who handles ball well. Average athlete but awesome rebounder for size. + Willing defender with good size, but average feet and hands. Doesn't make 3s.+ Creates midrange shots but rarely gets to rim. Good midrange shooter.
AnalysisTurner took over a starting job last season and played heavy minutes for a team that was a game from the conference finals. As a result, a lot of people are under the mistaken impression that he's good. Offensively, however, he remains a huge negative capable of creating lots of low-percentage shots but few easy ones.
Look at Turner's shot chart and he doesn't seem bad -- he shot 39.4 percent from beyond 10 feet and 66.7 percent at the rim. That's good, right? Indeed, his two-point shooting percentage was above the league average for shooting guards.
But he was dead last in secondary percentage. Turner has one of the lowest free throw rates at his position and never makes 3s, an impossibly inefficient combination that put him fifth from the bottom in true shooting percentage. He's a good passer -- one who tends to make high-value assists -- but not a great one, and his forays inside the 3-point line have a high turnover cost.
So it all looks pretty good while it's happening, but he's actually quietly killing the offense.
The one thing Turner does well is defensive rebound, and I mean he does it phenomenally well. Turner's 22.2 defensive rebound rate not only led all shooting guards, it was quite likely the best of all-time by a guard. Position definitions can be hazy, but a basketball-reference.com search produced nobody in the same zip code -- Jason Kidd's 20.8 in 2006-07 was the best I could do. Turner's mark would have ranked in the top quarter of power forwards and bested a majority of the league's centers; Pau Gasol, Emeka Okafor, Roy Hibbert and Paul Millsap all had worse defensive rebound rates than Turner.
SPENCER HAWES, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.811.73.916.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Skilled 7-footer who likes high post. Good passer and can shoot with range.+ Solid rebounder. Has decent post game but rarely displays it. Shies from contact.+ Has size to be good defender but needs more toughness and strength.
AnalysisNobody's quite sure what to make of Hawes' season, which consisted of a glorious breakout in the opening weeks followed by a steady trail-off toward the Hawes everybody remembered. The cautiously optimistic take is that he's become a much better high-post operator, particularly as a passer, and that combined with his midrange game makes him something of a poor man's Brad Miller but with better defense.
The negative take is that his shooting marks were a fluke, he still never draws fouls, and if he was so good how come the Sixers practically fell over themselves to get him out of the game in the playoffs? Hawes shot 56.8 percent before the All-Star break, 44.3 percent after, and 46.3 percent in the playoffs.
Given that he's shot in the 46 percent range his entire career except for that brief outburst before the break, we should expect a regression this season. And that's unfortunate because he never draws fouls, so he needs a high field goal percentage or some 3s to offset that shortcoming. Otherwise, he's a middling offensive option at best.
However, his development as a playmaker was real and notable. Hawes ranked fourth among centers in assist ratio and second in pure point rating.
Defensively, Hawes was a bit of a weak link, something that was more apparent because Philly's other bigs were so good. Synergy Stats gave him decent grades, but opposing centers had an 18.3 player efficiency rating against him according to 82games.com, and the Sixers gave up 2.4 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. While his rebounding and shot-blocking numbers were solid, his lack of physicality and middling mobility were a problem. The latter is likely to be more exposed if Philly's plan to start him at the 4 comes to fruition.
ANDREW BYNUM, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.313.01.822.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Huge post weapon who can establish deep position and score from short range. + Excellent shot-blocker. Won't rotate to perimeter but protects basket.+ Good post defender. Capable passer but tends to hold ball. Very injury-prone.
AnalysisBynum stayed healthy all season and broke out with a career-best season, making the first of what's likely to be several All-Star teams thanks to his dominant low-post game. The key for Bynum is getting shots at the rim; he took nearly five a game and converted a stellar 73.2 percent of them, plus he drew a high rate of fouls and most came in this area. He was mortal when pushed to 3-to-9 feet and forced to rely on short hook shots, converting 42.6 percent.
Lakers coach Mike Brown also gave Bynum's numbers a nudge by playing him with the second unit to start the second and fourth quarters; with no Kobe Bryant to monopolize the ball, it ensured lots of touches for Bynum. As a result, his 40-minute scoring rate improved by a whopping five points.
Like his teammate Pau Gasol, Bynum also benefited from an extremely low foul rate that allowed him stay on the court, as his rate of 1.93 whistles per 40 minutes was the least of any frontcourt player. While this sometimes was a negative -- he won't take a foul to prevent a layup, unless his team is down by 30 and J.J. Barea is steaming down the middle of the lane -- it allowed him to play over 35 minutes a game despite iffy stamina.
Better yet, he only missed six games, after missing an average of 31 the previous four seasons. The pounding of his huge frame on the knees will be a major story to watch going forward, as knee problems have caused all his absences.
Meanwhile, Bynum also contributed in other areas. He's an elite rebounder who ranked tenth among centers, and he protected the rim well, finishing in the top third among centers in blocks.
About the only negative, aside from his occasional fantasies of becoming a 3-point shooter, is that he holds the ball a lot in the post and brings the offense to a screeching halt. Making quicker moves and decisions, especially against double-teams, will only make him more potent on the block. So, too would eliminating the comfort dribble that he constantly feels the need to take. Nonetheless, he's arrived as the game's second-best center, and will be just 25 on opening day.
RESERVES
THADDEUS YOUNG, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.87.31.818.7(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Left-handed layup machine with speed in transition and nose for rim.+ Left dominant but improved right hand. Likes to attack bigs on drives from wing.+ Very undersized for 4. Great pick-and-roll defender but doesn't rebound.
AnalysisYoung continues to be extremely effective within his peculiar role, and with the league trending toward smaller lineups he's only becoming more useful. While it still may be a stretch to start him full-time at the 4, at 6-8, 220, he's been such an effective two-way player that they may need to consider it.
Young is a great pick-and-roll defender with good hands and takes lots of charges, which offsets his lack of size and physicality against bigger 4s. His bigger shortcoming, actually, is that he doesn't rebound, ranking just 65th out of 70 power forwards and 69th on the defensive glass.
However, offensively he's a huge boost because he gets layups without turnovers. Young shot 68.7 percent at the rim and got four such attempts per game; overall he shot 50.7 percent and had the fourth-lowest turnover ratio at his position. He draws disappointingly few fouls (54th at his position in free throw rate) and never makes 3s, but overall was a major catalyst. The jumper, however, is still a work in progress; Young hit 36.6 percent from beyond ten feet and made one 3-pointer all season.
LAVOY ALLEN, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.110.42.312.7(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long, wiry-strong big man with good mid-range jumper. Good post defender.+ Decent mobility on defense. Not a great rebounder or shot blocker. +Good passer but not a creator. Never draws fouls. Can finish at rim.
AnalysisThe second-to-last pick in the 2011 draft proved a great value for the Sixers, becoming a rotation player and their most effective big man in the conference semis against Boston. Defense will be his calling card -- he has the strength to push opponents out on the post and the length to challenge shots.
Allen's motor also ran hotter than many suspected out of college, as he had a solid rebound rate and competed, albeit with a high foul rate. For the season the Sixers gave up 6.6 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, although his other data wasn't as strong.
Offensively Allen just shoots midrange jumpers. He took three-quarters of his shots away from the rim and earned a laughable 14 free throw attempts the entire season, but he shot well from everywhere -- 63.8 percent inside ten feet, 40.9 percent from outside. The problem, obviously, is the proportion of each, which led to one of the lower true shooting percentages at his position. But Allen is a good high-post passer and a passable offensive player overall; combined with his defense, that makes him a viable rotation player at either frontcourt slot.
DORELL WRIGHT, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.46.42.415.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long forward who can catch-and-shoot jump shots. Excellent elevation on J.+ Very poor ball handler. Can't get to rim on his own. Runs floor well.+ Length an asset on defense but effort inconsistent. Good rebounder.
AnalysisFor a guy who was summarily dismissed from the Warriors' plans and given away over the summer, Wright has put together some awfully solid numbers. Last season he had a player efficiency rating of exactly 15.07 for a second straight season, shooting 36.0 percent on 3s and a stellar 68.4 percent at the rim. He missed nearly everything in between (31.6 percent between rim and 3-point line) and rarely draws fouls, but since more than half his shots were 3s he finished eighth at his position in secondary percentage.
Wright is a lousy ballhandler with a high, erratic dribble, but he knows it and rarely bounces it in traffic -- he had the fifth-lowest turnover ratio at his position as a result. He also ranked in the top third of small forwards in rebound rate.
Wright was miscast as the Warriors' perimeter stopper -- it sure as heck wasn't gonna be Monta Ellis -- and as a result took some lumps at the defensive end. Opposing small forwards had a 17.9 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and Golden State gave up 3.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Subjectively, I don't think he's bad, but there's no question Golden State's defense improved with Brandon Rush or Richard Jefferson on the court in his place.
NICK YOUNG, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.53.11.412.5(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Scoring guard who excels in catch-and-shoot. Can get jumper off over anyone.+ Tall for a 2 and decent athlete, but an underachieving defender. Bad rebounder.+ Has weak handle and rarely takes more than one dribble. Passes even less often.
AnalysisYou can't score an emptier 20 than this guy. A neat summary of the Nick Young Experience is that he averaged better than a point every two minutes and still finished with a player efficiency rating well below the league average. Let's just say the non-scoring categories are a bit wanting. Out of 67 small forwards, Young was 66th in assist ratio, 66th in rebound rate, and 61st in pure point rating. Young's assist ratio was the worst of any player with a usage rate over 15.
Young doesn't get to the basket much, but he definitely can stroke it. He made 36.5 percent of his 3s and 44.6 percent of his 2s beyond 16 feet. However, he has a poor short-to-midrange game (26.3%) and averaged less than a field goal per game at the rim. As a result, his true shooting percentage was ordinary.
Defensively, Young has some ability, but his focus comes and goes and some of the bigger 3s can overpower him. He wasn't particularly bad, but his metrics were slightly negative across the board. Additionally, his inability to rebound remains baffling considering his leaping ability. Young had a worse rebound rate than Luke Ridnour, Derek Fisher, Chris Duhon and Nate Robinson, among others, which is just embarrassing.
KWAME BROWN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Injury-prone big man with terrible hands and poor instincts at both ends. + Good pick-and-roll defender but subpar shot-blocker. Good rebounder.+ Can make short turnarounds in post. Awful foul shooter. Poor ballhandler.
AnalysisBrown outdid even his own recent standards of injury-proneness by exiting after just nine games last season. In the past six seasons the most he's played in a season is 66 games, and he's averaged just 43. This adds another baffling layer to Philly's zest for acquiring him: Even if you think he's good, he's not going to be available for long.
But he's not good, either. At best he's a solid backup who is neutral defensively and a major drag offensively, and that's looking through rose-colored glasses. His best metric is his solid rebound rate, and his pick-and-roll defense is helpful. But he's a bad weakside defender and doesn't block shots, offsetting those plusses.
Offensively, he's a bad foul shooter, bad outside shooter, and struggles to score in the post or catch in the paint. He draws a lot of fouls and gets second shots, but otherwise he mostly takes shots that opponents happily conceded and clogs up the paint, and he doesn't always play hard.
ARNETT MOULTRIE, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Long, quick big man who can jump. Slender build. Can hit mid-range jumper. + Must improve defense and focus. Poor ballhandler. Very good rebounder.
AnalysisMoultrie is a good athlete who can shoot, and those skills could make him a productive role player in the pros. He's a bit of a tweener between 4 and 5, with a limited handle but lacking great strength, but if he can knock down midrange jumps shots he may be able to play fairly regularly at the 4.
My Draft Rater wasn't crazy about him because he had a very low rate of blocks for a big man, because his ballhandling numbers were pretty bad, and because Mississippi State played an unusually weak schedule for a major conference school. But he's clearly an NBA athlete, and if he keeps his sometimes-idling motor engaged as a pro, he should prove useful in much the way Lavoy Allen was a year ago.
ROYAL IVEY, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Defensive-minded combo guard with good lateral movement and intensity.+ Decent midrange shooter but struggles from distance.+ Below-average ball handler and decision-maker. A stopgap-only point guard.
AnalysisIvey played more than expected, getting into 34 games as the Thunder struggled to find a backup point guard solution, but gave a pretty miserable performance that ultimately relegated him back to bench duty. Partly this was because he was trying to be a 3-point specialist, taking 53 of his 73 shots from downtown, but he's not cut out for that -- only 18 of them went in.
Alas, his other numbers were nothing to write home about either. He also appears to have lost some athleticism -- in 354 minutes he had one offensive rebound and zero blocked shots -- and his overall statistical production was heinously bad, yielding just a 4.52 PER.
Somehow, this performance lured Philadelphia into offering him a contract. While Ivey is a solid defender and a locker-room plus, he'll need to produce much better results to keep his foothold on a roster spot for long.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 17:01 (thirteen years ago)
Here are my player scouting reports and 2012-13 projections for the Los Angeles Clippers. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '11-12.)
CHRIS PAUL, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.63.810.024.37(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Incredible ball handler and pick-and-roll operator who never loses dribble.+ Improved outside shooter. Can score but penetrates to pass. Makes free throws.+ Defensive ball hawk. Tough but size problematic on close-outs. Knees a worry.
AnalysisSo I guess his knees were OK. Paul ranked second in the league in player efficiency rating (PER) and third in estimated wins added and made the Clippers relevant for the first time in eons. Better yet, he rediscovered his offensive aggression after a worrisome passive stretch in the second half of 2010-11.
Paul is amazing because he's so clever -- a master of the subtle arts of drawing fouls, getting 2-for-1s and creating angles. My favorite trick of Paul's is when he slows down and walls off the trailing defender on a pick-and-roll. Once an opponent is on his side or behind him, the opponent never, ever gets back in front.
Paul finished third in pure point rating, and amazingly had the second lowest turnover ratio among point guards even though he had one of the highest usage rates in the game. His shooting accuracy was pretty exceptional, too. Paul was fourth among point guards in true shooting percentage, making a stellar 44.5 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet while taking more than six shots a game from this distance. He also converted 49.7 percent in the tricky 3-to-9-foot range, placing him fourth in the league.
Steals Per 40 Minutes Leaders, 2011-12Player Team Stl/40Chris Paul LAC 2.79Sundiata Gaines Bkn 2.77Tony Allen Mem 2.73Ronnie Price Phx 2.63Ricky Rubio Min 2.59Min. 500 minutesDefensively, Paul was his usual pesky self. He led the league in steals per minute (see chart), and while his size is an issue, his ball hawking more than offset it. Opposing point guards had a 13.8 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and Synergy rated him well above average.
CHAUNCEY BILLUPS, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.13.55.514.58(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Crafty guard with good size and deep shooting ability. Rarely turns it over.+ Strong but slow-footed defender. Often does better guarding 2s. Loves pull-up 3s.+ Master of drawing contact. Great foul shooter. Scorer's mentality; average passer.
AnalysisBillups' erratic play had wags calling him "Mr. Bad Shot" -- he had one of the worst 2-point field goal percentages in basketball last season at a ghastly 34.0 percent, and his 36.4 percent overall mark was the third worst at his position. Certainly he could have chosen some of his deliveries a bit better. In particular, his love affair with pull-up 3s led to some unfortunate choices.
But once again, his combination of 3-pointers and free throw attempts made him far more effective than people realized. More than half his shots were 3s and he made a solid 38.4 percent of them; additionally, he had the third highest free throw rate among shooting guards and shot a sizzling 89.5 percent from the line. As a result, Billups was second in the NBA in secondary percentage last season, trailing only New York Knicks 3-point specialist Steve Novak (see chart).
Best Secondary Percentage, 2011-12Player Team Secondary Pct.Steve Novak NY 20.7Chauncey Billups LAC 19.0James Jones Mia 18.7James Harden OKC 16.8Kyle Korver Chi 16.8Min. 500 minutesSo while Billups had a terrible shooting percentage, his true shooting percentage -- the thing that really matters -- rated in the top third of shooting guards. He was also third among shooting guards in pure point rating, which is less surprising considering he often moved to the point.
Where Billups struggled was at the defensive end. He's undersized at the 2, offers nothing on the boards and no longer moves well laterally. While he's still better off at this position than at the point -- he just can't defend quick 1s anymore -- he's a liability defensively at either guard spot.
Of course, of far greater concern is his ability to return from a torn Achilles, a serious injury which few players have made successful recoveries from so late in their careers. Billups was already in steady decline the past two seasons, and he'll be 36 by opening day. The glass-half-full take is that his smarts and shooting ability won't be affected, but he still has to be able to move.
CARON BUTLER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.55.21.811.53(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Volume scorer who likes to take line-drive, midrange jump shots. + Good build and can score in traffic. Quick release. Doesn't see floor.+ Improved team defender who gambled less. Good size, iffy mobility.
AnalysisGrinding out the playoffs with a broken hand was admirable. Butler's regular season was less so, and the Clips have to be deeply worried about the two years and $16 million left on his contract. He shot the ball reasonably well, hitting 35.8 percent of his 3s and 41.3 percent of his long 2s, but made less than half his shots inside 10 feet and had a very low free throw rate. As a result, his true shooting percentage barely cleared 50, and he really offered nothing else to offset it.
Thus, while Butler averaged a solid 16.1 points per 40 minutes, he finished in the bottom third of small forwards in true shooting percentage, assists and rebounds. At least he was fairly solid defensively. Butler stopped gambling for steals as much, dipping to 42nd at his position in steals rate, but his defensive data was solid for a second straight season. Opposing 3s had a 12.1 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Clippers defended slightly better with him on the court. Given his ho-hum effort level in Washington, this is a major improvement.
Nonetheless, they need more offensive production from Butler in order to continue starting him. Grant Hill is looming in the wings, and while he also struggled offensively in 2011-12, he's a vastly superior defender.
BLAKE GRIFFIN, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER23.812.13.723.56(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Phenomenally explosive, strong physical specimen. Ridiculous dunker.+ Handles ball well for size. Monster rebounder. Very quick spins from right block.+ Will loaf on defense. Subpar help defender with short arms. Bad foul shooter.
AnalysisGriffin is much more than a dunker, although it's hard for the other stuff to get attention after some of his earth-shaking jams. His 73.7 percent shooting mark in the basket area gets your attention, but also take note of his solid work in the 3-to-9 foot range (44.4 percent) and that he's slowly becoming respectable with the pick-and-pop game (35.5 percent from beyond 10 feet). He relies too much on the pick-and-pop right now, but he'll need that shot as the years go by and he loses some spring.
Griffin's biggest shortcoming is his free throw shooting; he hit just 52.1 percent, basically undoing all he benefit of drawing more than seven free throw attempts per game. He also drew lots of non-shooting fouls that helped get his teammates in the bonus, as only Dwight Howard was fouled more often on a per-minute basis (see chart). His true shooting percentage was still strong because of his shooting from the field, but this is the biggest obstacle between him and superstardom.
Most Fouls Drawn Per 40 Minutes, 2011-12Player Team PF drawn/40Dwight Howard NY 20.7Blake Griffin LAC 8.9DeMarcus Cousins Sac 7.4Kevin Love Min 7.1Jeremy Lin NY 6.9Min. 500 minutes. Source: NBA.comGriffin's ball skills are pretty refined, too. He was in the top third of power forwards in assist ratio, turnover ratio and pure point rating. He's becoming better at picking out double-teams and finding the open man, and he dribbles well for his size. (But please, dude, ditch all the needless between-the-legs business).
Defensively, Griffin does great work on the boards (sixth among power forwards in rebound rate) but is average at best overall. Partly that's because of his short arms, partly that's because his effort fluctuates and partly that's because he's still learning where to be. He's not the first young player to suffer from those weaknesses, and with a bit more focus and experience he can be very solid.
DEANDRE JORDAN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.812.20.516.31(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big, left-handed center who is a devastating finisher and shot-blocker.+ Has no real moves besides dunks. Poor ball handler. Terrible foul shooter.+ Defensive focus comes and goes. Questionable work ethic.
AnalysisJordan improved, but in general you want a $10 million center to be on the court in the fourth quarter of playoff games. The Clippers were better when he wasn't. The issue for Jordan is that he continues to have lots of sizzle and shockingly little steak. Dunks and blocked shots? Oh hell yeah, he's got those. The other stuff that helps you win basketball games? Not so much.
Jordan actually does one other thing well: rebounding. He had a career-high rebound rate that placed him 14th among centers, and he also ranked ninth in blocks with 3.00 per 40 minutes.
And offensively, he knows his limitations. Jordan shot 63.2 percent last season by mostly shooting right at the basket, and even showed a bit of promise on short hooks, making 24 of his 46 tries from 3 to 9 feet. However, his rebounds and dunks came at a cost in three-second violations. Despite his limited offensive role, he was 48th out of 63 centers in turnover ratio. One other positive, if you see the glass as half-full, was a career-best 52.5 percent mark from the line. Baby steps …
Defensively, Jordan's blocks give him value and he was better than the season before at the fundamental stuff, but he still falls asleep on the weak side or rotates half a second late. Synergy rated him strongly, but opposing centers blistered him for a 20.2 PER, according to 82games.com. Regularized adjusted plus-minus sees him as a neutral defender overall, despite his shot-blocking ability, and subjectively that seems an accurate assessment.
JAMAL CRAWFORD, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.42.84.414.56(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Slick-handling, shoot-first combo guard with great quickness. Will force shots. + Rarely attacks paint but excels at drawing fouls on jumpers. Awful rebounder.+ Low-effort defender. Good quickness but no strength. More effective against 1s.
AnalysisMore shots, fewer makes wasn't a great formula to follow considering Crawford's volume-shooting approach was already hitting the point of diminishing returns, but Portland's lack of offensive punch at the guard spots drove him to find his shot more than ever. Crawford ended up fifth among shooting guards in usage rate, although he wasn't solely jacking for himself -- he was still in the top third of the position in pure point rating. Still, his 50.6 true shooting percentage was a marked decline from his usual level.
Crawford's 3-pointer let him down, but that was partly because so many of his 3s were late shot-clock hoists off the dribble. He hit only 30.8 percent from downtown, offsetting good shooting from other spots -- he made 41.3 percent of his long 2s and drew a high rate of fouls.
Notably, Crawford had a much better PER as a shooting guard (15.8) than as a point guard (12.8), according to 82games.com. This backs up his own feelings: He's known to prefer playing off the ball and bristled when the twin disasters of Raymond Felton and Nolan Smith forced him to play heavy minutes at the 1 last season.
However, he's always defended point guards better and did so again last season. Crawford is a below-average defender overall and last season's data supported that impression, but he can do solid work in situations where he plays off the ball on offense and guards the opposing point guard. Joining the Clippers and coming off the bench with players like Eric Bledsoe and Chauncey Billups may afford him that opportunity.
LAMAR ODOM, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.68.42.810.42(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Mobile combo forward with outstanding ballhandling skill for size. + Visibly unmotivated in 2011-12. Average outside shooter who lacks great burst.+ Strong defensive player when motivated. Can guard 4s or step out to perimeter.
AnalysisPerhaps no player in history has declined as sharply in one season as Odom did in 2011-12. Empirically, we can prove this. I have a database that goes back more than two decades, and Odom is the first player in its history to have a player efficiency rating (PER) decline of more than 10 points in a single season (see chart). Take it from an Atlantan -- when you can knock Speedy Claxton's 2006-07 season off the top five chart, you've done something.
Most Fouls Drawn Per 40 Minutes, 2011-12Player Team Year Prev. PER PER DeclineLamar Odom Dal 2011-12 19.50 9.26 -10.24Jason Hart Sac 2005-06 16.91 7.10 -9.81Chucky Atkins Den 2007-08 17.45 9.12 -9.33Tyrus Thomas Cha 2011-12 18.25 9.06 -9.19Otis Smith Orl 1991-92 17.23 8.12 -9.11Min. 500 minutes each seasonIn addition to becoming a walking spokesperson for the Fluke Rule, Odom's baffling malaise also pretty much torched any chance Dallas had of making a credible title defense. It's hard to say how much he can recover. The history of previous players to suffer drop-offs like this is quite discouraging -- most never even remotely got back to where they were, and at 32 Odom doesn't have time on his side.
The one argument in his favor is the palpable disinterest he showed for much of the season. Whether he was dejected by leaving L.A., was weary from his grueling reality show responsibilities or just lost interest in the game, Odom's effort level was the most notable difference. Those changes were reflected in his rebound rate, which fell dramatically, from 15.2 to 11.4, and in his defensive numbers, which were consistently excellent every season until the disaster from this past one.
Bad shooting also played a role. Odom increased his rates of 3-pointers and long 2s even though he couldn't shoot straight, making 25.2 percent of his 3s and 30.1 percent of his 2s beyond the restricted area. Those numbers may not recover to the career highs of a season earlier, but they should bounce back somewhat.
Nonetheless, the Clippers are taking a risk here. The theory is that he'll play better now that he's back in L.A., but it's an untested one. And for Odom to regain his former level, it would require a historic one-year increase in PER to offset last season's collapse. He'll be better than last season, simply because he couldn't possibly be worse, but it's unlikely a decline this sharp can be remedied simply with improved beach access.
GRANT HILL, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.35.43.18.51(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long, veteran wing with great ballhandling skill for size. Excellent finisher.+ Rarely takes 3s but good midrange shooter. Good rebounder for wing.+ Ace defender because of length, smarts and quickness. Can guard 1 through 4.
AnalysisHill can still defend, but he slipped last season at the offensive end. Looking a step slower and getting fewer shots at the rim, both Hill's scoring rate and field goal percentage slipped and, as a side consequence, he also drew dramatically fewer fouls. He's not a 3-point weapon but still shoots very effectively from midrange, making 42.9 percent between 10 and 23 feet; he'll need that in L.A. to hit shots from the short corner.
Hill's rebound rate slipped to a career low (7.0), another sign that he might be losing some spring, but his ballhandling numbers remained solid and he still had an impact defensively. That's the one skill the Clippers have to hope he retains, because it's the one they need. Hill permitted just a 12.2 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com, and the Suns gave up 3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court; Synergy also rated him as well above average.
Perhaps his offensive decline last season is merely a lockout-induced blip, but Hill will be 40 on opening day, and at times last season he seemed a step slow. One hopes what happened to his offense isn't a harbinger for his defense.
WILLIE GREEN, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.83.52.011.84(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Midrange shooter who has added 3-point weapon. Drives to score, not pass.+ Good quickness defensively. Competes, but undersized and fouls too much. + Good handle; can play point in a pinch. Poor rebounder. Doesn't draw fouls.
AnalysisI've been ripping on Green for years, so of course he comes to my city and immediately starts raining 3s. Green put up a career-high PER and was a genuinely effective player last season with the Atlanta Hawks, precisely because he started spotting up for 3s instead of relying on long 2s. He drained 44.2 percent of his triples while taking more than a third of his shots from downtown.
Green still took a lot of long 2s, making 41.8 percent of them, and he doesn't draw fouls. Nonetheless, he was in the top fifth of shooting guards in 2-point shooting percentage and finished 10th at the position in true shooting percentage; he also had the seventh best turnover ratio at the position. Green still has shortcomings -- he's a bad rebounder and passer and his 3-point percentage last season was almost certainly a fluke -- but if he's taking 3s instead of 2s he can fit in the back end of a rotation.
Subjectively, Green wasn't a bad defender, but his numbers were pretty poor. Synergy rated him as the Hawks' worst defender, opposing wings fared far better against him than any other Hawk according to 82games.com, and Atlanta gave up 5.4 more points per 100 possession with him on the court. The Hawks often used him in defensively stretched smallball lineups, however, which may skew his numbers.
ERIC BLEDSOE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Quick, athletic guard with good size and tremendous defensive potential. + Nominally a point guard, but no idea how to play offense. Turnover machine. + Poor outside shooter and lacks feel, but has great burst and draws fouls.
AnalysisBledsoe was injured for a big chunk of 2011-12 and on the fringes of the rotation for much of the rest, but he was a revelation in the postseason with his dogged defense and ball pressure.
He played only 436 minutes and his regular-season numbers were pretty ugly. He can't shoot and has an insanely high turnover ratio, which it makes it awfully tough for him to be an effective offensive player. Last season his 45.4 true shooting percentage was about as bad as it gets for a guard, and his turnover ratio would have been the worst at his position with enough minutes. He had a negative pure point rating for a second straight season, which is bad, bad news if you're an aspiring point guard. Basically, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more inefficient offensive player.
Nonetheless, his suffocating defense gives him some value. He's an active, athletic defender with high rates of steals and rebounds, and despite standing 6-foot-1 he can guard many 2s effectively. There's a cost in fouls -- he had one every 7.5 minutes, which is extremely high for a point guard -- but the Clippers gave up 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
All of which sets up an important third season for Bledsoe. He'll likely be handed the backup point guard gig and will certainly terrorize opposing backups with his ball pressure. But he needs to show some degree of competence on offense to stay in the rotation.
MATT BARNES, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.79.13.314.4(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Slender combo forward who runs the floor well. Good cutter. Lacks strength.+ Erratic outside shooter. Weak ball handler with high bounce, but good passer.+ Tough and energetic. Outstanding rebounder for size. Fouls frequently.
AnalysisThe Lakers' bench was a huge negative last season, but Barnes provided the one exception to that rule. He quietly (as quietly as can be done as a Laker) had the best season of his career, ripping nearly 10 boards per 40 minutes from the small forward position and ranking second at that spot in rebound rate. He also shot just well enough from the corner (33.3 percent on 3s) to require a bit of respect from opposing defenses.
Although not a great shooter, Barnes is a good cutter and finisher who shot 61.6 percent at the basket and drew a high rate of fouls. Additionally, his passing skills flourished -- he was sixth at his position in assist ratio, albeit at a high cost in turnovers.
Defensively, Barnes doesn't have great feet on the wing and again proved foul-prone -- only six small forwards fouled more often -- but he was seventh in blocks. He competes, too: Opposing small forwards had only a 13 PER against him, and the Lakers weren't any worse with him on the court.
RYAN HOLLINS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.26.60.88.03(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Lean, athletic big man who can run the floor and make spectacular dunks. + Poor shooter with no post game. Can make short runners. Loses cool easily. + Amazingly bad rebounder. Capable pick-and-roll defender. Lacks strength.
AnalysisHollins had a poor offensive season in limited minutes, but he showed enough activity on the defensive end to provide some value as a third center. Averaging just 10.0 points per 40 minutes with his usual sky-high turnover ratio, Hollins provided one interesting footnote: He had the second highest free throw rate in the league, with 75 free throw attempts on just 84 field goal attempts. Only Reggie Evans had a better rate.
Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt, 2011-12 LeadersPlayer Team FTA/FGAReggie Evans LAC 0.99Ryan Hollins Cle/Bos 0.89Tyson Chandler NY 0.89Dwight Howard Orl 0.79Omer Asik Chi 0.66Min. 500 minutes. SourceHollins mostly wasted the benefit of this by shooting 52.0 percent from the line, and his ballhandling was so atrocious that he had the third worst pure point rating in the league.
But the real mystery, as always, is why Hollins can't rebound. He's 7 feet tall with great hops, but his 9.0 rebound rate was the worst of any big man except Steve Novak and Austin Daye. He doesn't block shots, either, and had the lowest rate of steals in the NBA at just 0.38 per 40 minutes (he had five the entire season). Again, this is baffling given his length and quickness.
Defensively, Hollins does a solid job against the pick-and-roll but struggles in strength matchups and tends to rack up fouls; he had one every 6.7 minutes last season. He'll also have better seasons as a scorer than the last one, as he'd had double-digit PERs the previous four seasons. But if the Clippers are counting on him as a full-time backup center, that's not a role he can handle.
RONNY TURIAF, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report
+ High-energy, injury-prone big man who blocks shots and hustles.+ Decent midrange shooter and passer, but only shoots if left wide open.+ Subpar rebounder. Undersized for a 5 and compensates with high foul rate.
AnalysisBetween his usual assortment of injuries Turiaf played only 17 games for Miami and Washington, but he played them well enough to provide a passable backup center -- perfect for using in short bursts when he can run around like a crazy person and foul indiscriminately. The most notable developments were spikes in both his rebound and turnover ratios, but given the small sample size I wouldn't put much stock in either shift.
TREY THOMPKINS, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Skilled big man who can make midrange jumpers and handle ball. + Limited post game and finishing skills. Average athlete. Soft. + Defensive mobility a major question. Needs to get in better shape.
AnalysisThompkins played bits and pieces of 24 games, and if "willingness to shoot" were a metric, he'd be right near the top. He flung 61 shots in 120 minutes, many of them jumpers that landed nowhere near their intended target. As a pick-and-pop guy, he'll need to shoot more accurately and less brazenly to crack a rotation.
Amazingly, he didn't get any run in the D-League, so this limited sample is all we have to go by.
TRAVIS LESLIE, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Athletic guard who needs to improve skill level. Short for a wing. Long arms.+ Shooting, ballhandling major questions. Strong. Excellent rebounder for size.
AnalysisLeslie played 10 games for the parent club, for a total of 45 minutes, and didn't embarrass himself. That sample doesn't tell us much, but he also played extensively in 10 D-League games for Bakersfield. Down there he showed why his offensive game is a concern, as he drew shockingly few fouls for an athletic wing and converted just two 3-pointers in 203 minutes.
Leslie's likely path to minutes is as an energy and defense guy, but he has to back it up with some modicum of offensive production. Additionally, the energy stuff wasn't that overwhelming, either -- just three blocks and three steals in 203 D-League minutes. He needs to do much better to stick.
Here are my player scouting reports and 2012-13 projections for the Indiana Pacers. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '11-12.)
GEORGE HILL, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.24.44.514.97(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long-armed combo guard with the handle of a point guard but a scorer's mindset.+ Good spot-up shooter. Effective defender with long arms, especially at the 2.+ Can slash to the basket and draw fouls. Slim build. Fairly athletic.
AnalysisI've always liked Hill better as a 2 than a 1, but as last season progressed he honed his point guard skills enough to do a solid job in that role. Hill had a career high in assist rate and a career low in turnover rate; in fact he had the fourth-lowest turnover rate at his position. While he still didn't create a ton (4.6 assists per 40 minutes), he at least got Indiana into plays, especially compared to Darren Collison.
Hill was considerably more potent as a shooter, ranking 14th at his position in true shooting percentage. He made 36.7 percent of his 3s and 42.2 percent of his long 2s, and despite shooting mostly jumpers got to the line more often than most point guards.
Defensively his length proved helpful in multiple areas, ranking among the leading point guards in rebounds and blocks while using his size advantage to play a half-step off most opponents. He does his best work against big point guards and short wings, but statistically he had solid grades across the board -- most notably, opposing point guards had just a 9.2 player efficiency rating against him according to 82games.com, while shooting guards didn't fare much better at 11.7.
PAUL GEORGE, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.77.53.417.42(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long, smooth wing with natural scoring instincts. Can shoot and finish. + Struggled on D but showed potential. Quick hands and reads passing lanes. + Needs to play more aggressively, make better decisions and refine moves.
AnalysisMan, does this guy have an exciting future. Big wings who can handle and shoot never go out of style and are far more rare than this center-obsessed league seems to realize. George is 6-8 with 3-point range and can split pick-and-rolls off the dribble; the main obstacles to his eventual stardom appear to be his own aggressiveness and decision-making.
He made sharp progress in his second season, however, and his athleticism spills out on the stats sheet: Among shooting guards, he ranked second in rebound rate, fourth in steals, eighth in blocks and 10th in PER, and he shot 63.1 percent at the rim with a high foul rate. But his skill is apparent too; he made 38.5 percent of his 3s and 81.5 percent from the line.
Right now his weak points are all the finer stuff. He still turns it over too much (52nd out of 61 small forwards) and struggles with decision-making, and his jumper off the dribble still needs work -- he hit just 32.9 percent of his 2s from 10 to 23 feet.
Defensively it's a similar story: He can be an impact defender with his length and athleticism, but he fouls too much (fourth-highest rate among shooting guards) and that takes him off the floor at times. Additionally, his on-ball defense isn't quite as strong as his disruptive plays off of it, although a move to his more natural small forward spot might help.
Nonetheless, I'll be surprised if he's not in an All-Star Game at some point in the next few years, and he represents Indiana's best opportunity to take another step up in class in the East.
DANNY GRANGER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.75.82.316.98(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Deep-shooting forward with a quick, accurate trigger. Very big for a wing.+ Very effective going right but has a weak left hand. Draws fouls, money from the line.+ Solid defender with good size. Limited court vision -- drives to score.
AnalysisGranger's game isn't always easy on the eyes, iso-ing for 20-footers or pretending he's running a pick-and-roll for something other than his own jump shot, but it is effective. He generated a slew of shots with very few turnovers -- cutting his rate sharply from a season earlier -- and his TS% was well above the norm for a small forward.
Break it down and it was mostly the 3s that did it -- he shot 38.1 percent from distance, but hit only 43.4 percent of his 2s. However, he drew a lot of fouls for a jump shooter and shot 87.3 percent, the best mark of any small forward; between that and the 3s, it offset his subpar shooting inside the arc. In particular, contested long 2s have been a problem for him. He shot only 36.3 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet last season, after hitting 35.0 percent the season before.
As for passing, Granger didn't really do that much -- only 11 small forwards assisted less often -- and that's the biggest limitation on his game. On the flip side, however, he'd also benefit from a more natural point guard running things and getting him cleaner looks at jumpers, rather than forcing him to iso so much.
Defensively, I thought Granger was one of the league's most improved players. His effort was much more consistent than a season earlier, and all his statistical grades were positive. The Pacers gave up 3.6 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court and he allowed only a 12.7 PER to opposing small forwards, according to 82games.com. Notably, Indiana also put him in size mismatches less because it hardly ever played small with him at the 4.
DAVID WEST, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.28.52.717.18(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Highly skilled power forward who can shoot and handle. Deadly from midrange.+ Average athlete but attacks off the dribble for jump hooks. Loves going between his legs.+ Average at best defensively. Undersized, can't jump, and won't give fouls.
AnalysisWest made a solid recovery from a torn ACL the year before, using his pick-and-pop and ballhandling skills to become a focal point of the Pacers' offense. The one key difference was that West couldn't jump. He was never a leaper, but he barely got any elevation at all last season. His rebound and block numbers declined, but it was more apparent when he tried to shoot over long defenders near the basket.
Nonetheless, he was a big positive both on offense and in the locker room. West's pick-and-pop game made the offense flow. He hit a stellar 45.6 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet while taking nearly five a game, and when defenses closed he could find the open man or dribble drive. West finished in the top quarter of power forwards in both assist and turnover rate, too, so despite a low foul rate and a middling true shooting percentage, he was a major positive offensively.
On defense he showed he can still move a little, though having Roy Hibbert's length behind him really helped. West's primary value will always be at the offensive end, but he didn't hurt Indiana on defense last season, a pleasant surprise given his recovery from the knee injury. With one year more of recovery, he may prove more mobile than a season ago. Although he's 31 and his jump-shooting numbers may regress a bit, his high-skill game should age well.
ROY HIBBERT, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.611.12.818.37(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long big man with 18-foot range, post moves and great short-range touch.+ Slow-footed defender, but his conditioning has improved. Mediocre rebounder.+ Good passer and shot-blocker. Makes free throws. Stamina limits minutes.
AnalysisHibbert took a major step forward offensively and on the boards last season, making his first All-Star team by being consistently good in nearly every category. Hibbert was above the league median for centers in all but two categories, defensive rebound rate and 2-point shooting percentage, and even in those two he was just a whisker south of the mark.
Top Shooters From 3-15 feet, 2011-12Player Team Pct.Roy Hibbert Ind 47.9Carlos Boozer Chi 47.5Chris Paul LAC 47.5LaMarcus Aldridge Por 47.1Jarrett Jack NO 46.5Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comBut his specialty is short-to-medium range shooting (see chart). With an unblockable jump hook on the block that he can make with either hand, and a soft touch from the free throw area, Hibbert was the league's best shooter last season in the tricky area between 3 and 15 feet, converting 47.9 percent while taking nearly six tries a game from this range. The bulk of them were close-in post-ups that enabled his jump hook, a potent weapon at his 7-2 height. Hibbert complemented that by improving his command of double-teams, drawing more fouls and crashing the offensive boards more.
Hibbert's two other weaknesses were fouls and stamina, but last season he fouled at a rate below the league average for centers -- a massive improvement compared to his first two seasons. As for the stamina thing -- the Pacers may just have to live with that. Hibbert averaged only 29.8 minutes per game last season and 30.9 even in the playoffs, as he requires frequent breathers.
But when he does play, he's been able to sustain his effort defensively and has become much better at protecting the rim while avoiding fouls. Indiana was marginally better with him on the court, but Synergy gave him the best grades on the team and subjectively he seemed to cope with pick-and-rolls much better than in the past.
IAN MAHINMI, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.09.70.512.77(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Athletic big man and high-percentage finisher near the basket. Draws lots of fouls.+ Has a limited perimeter game and very poor ball skills. Lacks strength for a true 5.+ Mobile defender but uncoordinated. Has sky-high foul rate. Injury-prone.
AnalysisMahinmi is a free throw machine -- at both ends. Offensively he ranked sixth among centers in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and while he's not a great foul shooter those freebies still allowed him to post the 10th-best TS% at his position -- even though his mark shattered his career low. It may all look a bit clumsy, but he shot 66.7 percent in the basket area, got to the line and scored at a decent rate.
Defensively, however, he gives as good as he gets. Mahinmi averaged a foul every 6.5 minutes, the sixth-worst rate among centers, as he too often found himself in size mismatches and is a bit uncoordinated. He moves well and his defensive stats were solid in other respects, but his high foul rate makes it difficult for him to be more than a bench player.
As a third big, however, you could do worse. He is 25 and has put up better numbers in his previous seasons, and even last season he was 39th among centers in PER. He's a passable 10-foot shooter and can play 4 in a pinch, he rebounds fairly well, and as noted above his ability to draw fouls and finish makes him a plus offensively, even if he's not much of a creator. A four-year deal is a risk, but he should help Indy.
TYLER HANSBROUGH, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.18.51.014.80(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Short-armed, hustling power forward with good strength and a scorer's mentality.+ Draws lots of fouls by attacking rim. Selfish offensive player who forces low, line-drive J's.+ Lacks length, but quick for his size and defends pick-and-roll well. Subpar rebounder.
AnalysisWhile Hansbrough's attacking, aggressive mindset is impressive and yields some positive results, one can't help wonder how much better he might do if he ever passed. Hansbrough is one of the league's most frustrating players because once he takes a dribble or gets an offensive board, he's never, ever giving it up, no matter how many defenders rotate in his way. Only three power forwards had a lower assist rate last season, even though he usually operated out of the high post -- "assist central" for most big men.
Hansbrough also forces too many jumpers, taking four shots a game from beyond 10 feet and converting only 33.6 percent of them. As a result, he shot just 40.6 percent on 2-pointers -- only six power forwards were worse. The free throws were a saving grace, especially since he hit 81.3 percent from the line, but it's hard to argue his offense was a positive overall.
Defensively, Hansbrough is tough and moves well, but his lack of size seemed more problematic last season playing next to another undersized player at center (Lou Amundson). Hansbrough had the third-worst rate of blocks and, more surprisingly, the seventh-worst defensive rebound rate among power forwards.
Opposing power forwards had a 16.4 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com, and the Pacers gave up 2.6 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, although Synergy graded him very well. With more length next to him in Miles Plumlee and Ian Mahinmi, I suspect his defense will become a net positive.
D.J. AUGUSTIN, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.33.08.014.57(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Quick, tiny point guard who can penetrate and dish. Needs to add a floater.+ Struggles defensively due to lack of size, especially when posted up. + Improved passer and distributor. Great foul shooter, but mediocre from 3.
AnalysisI really like the progress Augustin has made as a distributor in his four seasons, but if he doesn't start making shots and getting some defensive stops, it's not going to matter. First, the good news: Augustin had a career-high assist rate, with nearly nine dimes per 40 minutes despite not having a bewildering array of options around him, and ranked seventh in the NBA in pure point rating. I think we can stop calling him a "shoot-first" guard.
If anything, he should be shoot-last. Augustin hit only 37.6 percent from the floor, including a pathetic 39.6 percent on 2-point shots. In particular, he was the game's worst finisher last season, converting only 48.3 percent of his shots at the rim (see chart). On a positive note, he narrowly missed leading all Bobcats point guards in this category.
Worst Shooting Percentage At Rim, 2011-12Player Team FG% at rimD.J. Augustin Cha 48.3Kemba Walker Cha 49.4Wes Matthews Por 49.5Norris Cole Mia 50.0Darren Collison Ind 52.6Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comFinally, while Augustin is a great foul shooter (87.6 percent) for his career, that hasn't translated to his 3-point shooting, where he submitted another mediocre performance last season. A tiny guard like Augustin has to be able to punish defenses from out there, and he hasn't consistently done it. Augustin could also use a floater, over the past two seasons he's a miserable 27.7 percent from between 3 and 15 feet.
Meanwhile, he got lit defensively. Synergy, 82games.com and the advance regularized adjusted plus-minus all agreed he was terrible, and have been nodding their heads in unison for years now. Opposing point guards had 19.8 PER against him according to 82games.com, the Bobcats gave up 4.6 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and Synergy placed him near the bottom of the league's point guard heap. For a speedy little guard he's surprisingly mediocre laterally and has one of the lowest steal rates among point guards every season.
Basically, he's a backup. As much as one might admire his improved distribution, he just doesn't make enough shots to be a viable starter, especially given the defensive shortcomings.
GERALD GREEN, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.05.41.815.25(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Athletic, explosive leaper with ideal size for a small forward. Ridiculous dunker.+ Strong 3-point shooter. Ball skills only adequate, and prone to turnovers. + Lean build. Defense, basketball IQ and decision-making still are question marks.
AnalysisIn a panel at the Sloan Sports Conference a couple years ago, Dallas owner Mark Cuban famously opined that Green "had no idea how to play basketball." At the time that was true, but Green has figured some things out since then. He showcased his newfound competence in a late-season call-up with New Jersey last season, after he had absolutely destroyed the D-League.
The biggest difference is his 3-point shot, and how he uses it to set up the rest of his game. Green made 45.8 percent of his 3s in the D-League and 39.1 percent as a Net; he proved it wasn't a fluke by also making 41.9 percent of his long 2s. With his size and leaping ability, he can get his shot off against any defender. Meanwhile, Green shot 70.7 percent in the basket area, including an assortment of highlight-reel dunks (an alley-oop windmill in a late-season game against Houston takes the cake). Finally, Green's forays to the rim also yielded a high free throw rate.
The question marks about Green at this point have nothing to do with his ability. Can he maintain his effort and concentration? Can he fit in as a role player on a winning team in Indiana, as opposed to putting up numbers on a bad team in New Jersey? Can he play defense the way he plays offense?
The good news on that last front is that Green defended pretty darned well for the Nets. New Jersey gave up 6.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with Green on the court, and according to 82games.com opposing small forwards had only a 9.9 PER against him. If those numbers hold up, the Pacers have themselves a steal.
MILES PLUMLEE, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Athletic, pogo-stick big man who can run the floor and rebound. Good motor.+ Non-scorer who gets points on dunks. Very old for a rookie. Good strength.
AnalysisPlumlee was an interesting first-round choice, because he has a crazy vertical for a player of his size and a single, elite-level skill: Only two prospects had a higher rebound rate. Nonetheless, he has a lot to argue against him, starting with the lack of production as a collegian against players two and three years younger than him. Plumlee turned 24 in September and didn't rebound at nearly the same rate in his sophomore and junior seasons.
Additionally, he's a non-factor on offense and blocked shockingly few shots for a big man who can jump. Indiana took a flier to fill a hole at backup center, and he'll definitely get his share of rebounds. I'm just not convinced he'll do enough else to justify playing him.
LANCE STEPHENSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Average athlete with good handle, superior strength, solid midrange shot. + Character, commitment are major questions. Makes bad decisions with the ball. + Needs to improve long-range shot mechanics. Rebounds well. Can post up.
AnalysisThe Pacers tried Stephenson as a backup point guard last season, and I'm guessing they won't try it again. Stephenson has some genuine skills as a passer and a decent handle, but he can't shoot and doesn't make the right play consistently enough -- ergo his massive turnover rate.
He's an NBA-caliber athlete and he's only 22, so there's some hope that he might be able to turn things around. But his jumper is broken and one suspects any future he has will be as a wing player, where his decisions will be less destructive.
SUNDIATA GAINES, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.95.36.315.3(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Strongly built, scoring-minded point guard who draws fouls. + Poor outside shooter and terrible free throw shooter. Bit of a tweener.+ Excels at ball pressure, amazing knack for steals. Great rebounder for his size.
AnalysisMy 10-second scouting report on Gaines: If he could shoot he'd be really good. Gaines is elite in several areas that don't require shooting a basketball. Among point guards he was third in rebound rate, eighth in free throw rate and second in steals. Unfortunately, he was also 65th out of 70 points guards in 2-point shooting, 69th in free throw percentage and 57th in TS%. He's more of a scorer than a point guard, however, and had the second-worst assist quality among point guards.
On the other hand, Gaines' knack for steals was notable. He's excellent at pressuring the ball and the Nets used a lot of pressing tactics with him in the game, resulting in an incredible 2.77 steals per 40 minutes last season, good for second in the NBA.
Gaines' overall defensive impact was more questionable; he lacks size and his gambles took him out of position at times. While the Nets were marginally better with him on the court, it's hard to attach too much meaning to this given how awful they were overall. Synergy had him in the middle of the pack as well.
Nonetheless, he's a useful player despite his shortcomings. He's put up respectable numbers for three straight seasons at the NBA level, and he destroyed the D-League in 2010-11. He's unorthodox and some teams will flinch at that, but you could do a lot worse as a backup point guard.
SAM YOUNG, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ One-on-one scorer who tends to stop the ball. Very strong, overpowers small wings.+ Awesome shot fake off the catch. No 3s, but good midrange J. Good rebounder.+ Solid defender. Tough, physical, aggressive. No court vision at all.
AnalysisIf you're going to be a ball-stopping one-on-one player, you at least need to make your shots. Young couldn't buy a bucket last season, and as a result found himself strapped to the bench in Memphis and Philadelphia. Shooting 35.4 percent with a low free throw rate will do that, including an abysmal 21-of-81 away from the rim.
Given the small sample, one suspects this was an outlier, especially since Young's other numbers hardly changed. But the decline in free throw attempts was worrisome. He's not a good enough shooter to live off midrange jumpers, so he needs to get to the basket more than he did last season. If so, he can again be a useful second-unit scorer for the right team. If not, he won't be around for long.
JEFF PENDERGRAPH, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Tough 4 who can rebound. Decent athlete who can score around basket.+ Needs work on perimeter game and ball skills. Defensive mobility a question.
AnalysisPendergraph is a dying breed in the NBA -- a power forward who can't space the floor. He's too short to play center so he has to make it work at the 4, and he's put up pretty good numbers in his limited minutes in Portland and Indiana. Last season he made only 5 of his 20 shots away from the basket, but he's a pretty effective garbage man around the basket thanks to a strong motor. He had missed an entire season due to a knee injury before coming back in 2011, and may get a stronger chance at sustained minutes this time around.
ORLANDO JOHNSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Scoring-minded wing with powerful build and 3-point range. Good handle.+ Questionable shot selection. Not an elite athlete. Very long arms.
AnalysisJohnson shot over 40 percent on 3s his last two years as a collegian, and he'll try to use that as a launching point to a career as a deep-shooting specialist in the pros. He has a strong build and should be able to defend his position adequately, although that wasn't a focus of his in college.
Outside of that, his options seem limited. He scored a lot in college out of necessity and had solid ballhandling numbers, but he shot 46 percent on 2s against bad competition. Plus, he's already 23 years old, which makes him quite long in the tooth for a rookie.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 17:02 (thirteen years ago)
STEVE NASH, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.23.712.616.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Genius pick-and-roll operator who shreds defenses with passes from either hand.+ One of the best outside shooters in history. Burns any defense playing under screens.+ Takes charges, but a mediocre defender because of limited lateral quickness.
AnalysisSo, which amazing Nash stat would you like to see first? Let's start with shooting, which remains the most underrated part of his game. Nash led all point guards in true shooting percentage, again, and in 2-point shooting percentage, again, and led the league in shooting on midrange jumpers, again.
He was first from outside 10 feet, but the more amazing feat came in the longest 2s, outside 16 feet. There he shot 53.8 percent (see chart), lapping the rest of the league in this category … even though as a point guard he was taking nearly all these shots off the dribble (the other leaders were all bigger players shooting them off the catch).
Top shooters from 16-23 feet, 2011-12Player Team FG%Steve Nash Phx 53.8Dirk Nowitzki Dal 50.3Jared Dudley Phx 49.4Jason Smith NO 48.1Brandon Bass Bos 48.0Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comNash shot the ball less and turned it over more than in previous seasons, offering a slight glimpse into the possibility that at age 38 he might be losing effectiveness. Might. He was also fourth in pure point rating, shot 39.0 percent on 3s (a shot he actually should take more, and might, in L.A.) and despite all the worries about his health in 2011-12, Nash missed eight games or fewer for the 11th straight season.
However, he's taking the low-risk thing to extremes at the defensive end. Nash had, by far, the lowest foul rate in basketball, committing just 53 the entire season. He also had the lowest steal rate among point guards, and while he takes the occasional charge, he spent most of the season hidden away against non-scorers while Ronnie Price or Grant Hill covered any threatening point guard. Given the personnel in L.A., it will be more difficult for him to take that approach.
KOBE BRYANT, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER27.45.74.920.5(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Devastating post-up guard who makes midrange jumpers over the top of defenses.+ Excellent ball handler for his size. Sees floor, can create and finish. Natural scorer.+ Smart defender but his intensity fluctuates. Rarely asked to defend good players.
AnalysisBryant led the NBA in usage rate by a wide margin (see chart) and very nearly led it in points per minute as well, finishing a 10th of a point behind Kevin Durant in points per 40 minutes -- an amazing feat for a player age 33. Bryant looked spry coming out of the lockout in particular, racking up four straight 40-point games in January. However, he cooled off considerably the rest of the way, most notably while shooting 38.7 percent in March. He was in the top five in player efficiency rating (PER) in the first half of the season but finished 17th.
Usage Rate Leaders, 2011-12Player Team Usage RateKobe Bryant LAL 33.0Russell Westbrook OKC 30.4Derrick Rose Chi 30.4Deron Williams Nets 29.8LeBron James Mia 29.8Min. 500 minutesAll this points to a potential hurdle ahead: As Bryant gets older, he inevitably needs to take on a reduced offensive role, but might be reluctant to do so. The additions of Steve Nash and Dwight Howard only accelerate this discussion; iso-ing Kobe now looks to be the third-best option after a Nash pick-and-roll and a Gasol-to-Howard high-low.
Bryant can still fill it up, of course, and fairly efficiently. He hit 41.4 percent on long 2s while taking more than 11 a game (!), converted 66.2 percent at the rim and still drew a free throw for every three field goal attempts (12th among shooting guards) thanks to all his assorted shot fakes. And in his defense, the Lakers had one perimeter player who could create a shot -- Bryant -- so if the post game broke down, he needed to create.
That said, he could spread the wealth a little more. Bryant finished 51st out of 61 shooting guards in pure point rating, and his high turnover ratio was a sign of how much more often he's working in tight spaces -- mostly on midrange post-ups -- than earlier in his career.
He also needs to chill on the iso 3-pointers. Bryant can make them off the catch and likely will have more opportunities to do so next season, but he took nearly five triples a game in 2011-12 and made only 30.3 percent.
Bryant's annual All-Defense selections make a mockery of the idea that head coaches are actually doing the voting. He picks his spots and rarely has to guard good wings. Nobody would place him among the league's elite stoppers. That said, he's still effective. The Lakers allowed 2.7 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court and he held opposing shooting guards to a 12.8 PER. He's also a strong rebounder who ranked in the top quarter of all shooting guards and was able to generate solid rates of blocks and steals while preserving a very low foul rate.
METTA WORLD PEACE, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.44.93.210.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Elite one-on-one wing defender with quick hands, superior strength and good feet.+ Has lost a step and can't jump at all. Struggles chasing through screens.+ Very poor finisher. Poor shot selection. Can make corner 3s.
AnalysisIt was like two different seasons for World Peace, who had an absolutely brutal start (4.7 ppg on 33.5 percent shooting in first half of the season) before a very strong finishing kick in which he averaged 14.1 points in April.
But on a meta level (sorry), he ended up with virtually identical stats to his 2010-11 campaign. The most important of those, as always, were on the defensive end -- he had strong Synergy numbers, held opposing small forwards to an 11.8 PER, and the Lakers gave up 1.9 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Offensively, there's more reason for concern. World Peace made only 29.6 percent of his 3s on the season, and even in his late-season surge he still struggled from deep. While his 60.1 percent mark in the paint is encouraging -- he's struggled as a finisher there in the past -- his most important role is as a corner 3-point shooter, and he failed in that.
Lowest Average Assist Quality, 2011-12Player Team Assist QualityMetta World Peace LAL .503Sundiata Gaines Nets .520Blake Griffin LAC .521Kevin Martin Hou .522Jordan Farmar Nets .524League average .667Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 100 assistsWorld Peace is a sneaky good ball handler who ranked fourth among small forwards in pure point rating, but there might be less here than meets the eye. According to my research on assist quality, World Peace's assists were the least valuable of any player who had at least a hundred dimes, adding an average of just .566 points to the Laker bottom line (see chart).
PAU GASOL, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.710.73.919.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long, highly skilled post scorer with excellent dexterity and 18-foot range.+ Smart player, sees floor well. Can make jump hook with either hand.+ Blocks shots but lacks strength and can be bullied on blocks. Good rebounder.
AnalysisThe impression was that the Lakers forgot about Gasol last season as they sought to feed Andrew Bynum, but his usage rate hardly budged. What really happened is Gasol was forced to search out shots from the perimeter since Bynum was in his preferred perch on the left block.
Gasol took more than six long 2s a game and fewer shots inside 10 feet; he even dabbled with the corner 3, compiling 28 tries. To his credit, Gasol hit 44.2 percent of his long 2s -- a stellar percentage -- but the toll of all those J's on his overall shooting percentage was inevitable. He also earned a career-low four free throw attempts per game.
Gasol is a great high-low passer, though, who ranked fourth among power forwards in pure point rating, and Bynum allowed him to show off those skills repeatedly. One can only imagine what he might do with Dwight Howard in those sets. Nonetheless, this is a suboptimal usage of Gasol's talents and was one of the reasons most Laker trade speculation centered on him.
Gasol's less recognized talent is that he's always on the floor. Only one power forward had a lower foul rate, and Gasol has good stamina. As a result, he played more than 37 minutes a game for a fourth straight season -- vital considering how paper-thin L.A.'s frontcourt depth was a year ago. In four full seasons as a Laker, he's missed just 19 games.
Defensively, Gasol isn't quite a natural at either frontcourt spot but is more comfortable at the 4. The exception is when he has to guard face-up 4s who can handle the ball; guys like Al Harrington just kill him. His large on-court vs. off-court differential isn't surprising given the wasteland L.A. had behind him, but he also had a strong Synergy rating and opponent data on 82games.com. Subjectively, his length is more of a plus and his lack of strength less of an issue at the 4, and against most opponents he has the dexterity to play the position.
DWIGHT HOWARD, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.114.61.823.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Dominant physical force who overpowers foes with strength and athleticism.+ Awesome defensive player. Blocks shots, covers pick-and-roll and owns boards.+ Can make short-range banks and hooks, but post game lacks refinement.
AnalysisHere's how good Howard is: Even coasting through the season while pushing for a trade and his coach's removal, he was still probably the best center in the league. Clearly his defensive effort was not at its usual level, but he almost can't help but be dominating on that end given his size and mobility. In addition to the blocks and rebounds, he was ninth among centers in steals per minute. Howard still got top-notch grades from Synergy, and the Magic gave up 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
Howard also led the NBA in defensive rebound rate and finished second overall, a pretty amazing accomplishment considering he's not a specialist in this category like, say, Reggie Evans or Marcus Camby.
Defensive Rebound Rate Leaders, 2011-12Player Team Def. Rebound RateDwight Howard Orl 33.1Marcus Camby Por/Hou 32.7Aaron Gray Tor 28.3Tim Duncan SA 28.2Anderson Varejao Cle 26.8Min. 500 minutesA left-block post player, Howard passed out of the post and found shooters much better than before, resulting in a career-low turnover ratio, although it still yielded one of the worst pure point ratings in basketball. Alas, his foul shooting remains a huge weakness. Howard had one of the highest foul rates in basketball but converted only 49.1 percent from the stripe, dragging down his TS%.
When he wasn't fouled, Howard was a force, shooting 74.4 percent at the rim. He took nearly as many shots from 3 to 9 feet and shot a respectable 41.5 percent from that range. He still isn't a graceful post player, and one can fairly argue that doubling him is just playing into his hands, but he's slowly getting the hang of those little hooks and bank shots.
JODIE MEEKS, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.74.21.411.5(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Shooting specialist who excels at trailing for transition 3s. Money from the line.+ A bit undersized for the 2 and an average athlete but very solid defensively.+ Good at up-faking for fouls. Rarely fouls on D. Low-mistake specialist.
AnalysisMeeks had a bit of a setback in his third season, as his 3-point shot wasn't nearly as deadly (36.5 percent) and his free throw rate plummeted. As an offensive specialist, this was not welcome news and resulted in losing his starting job. While Meeks had the lowest turnover ratio of any shooting guard, he wasn't asked to do a whole lot -- only three shooting guards had a lower usage rate -- and that role requires an exceptional TS%. His 55.1 mark didn't cut it.
For a specialist, however, Meeks did the other things pretty well. His 46.8 percent mark on 2s was above the average for his position, he draws some fouls and he's not a bad rebounder. Defensively he was solid, as well. While he's a bit undersized for the 2, the Sixers gave up 1.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court and opposing shooting guards mustered only an 11.1 PER against him according to 82games.com; Synergy also rated Meeks as an above-average defender.
JORDAN HILL, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.112.61.215.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ High-energy "4.5" who can make plays near the rim but lacks strength and ball skills.+ Runs floor well and can make short-range Js. Can score in post in mismatches.+ Outstanding rebounder. Struggles defensively and fouls too much. Blocks shots.
AnalysisHill enjoyed a breakout third season, focusing on using his athleticism to get to the boards and ranking a surprising eighth among centers in overall rebound rate and seventh on the defensive glass. Second shots also helped him on the offensive end; he can't get to the rim on his own steam and struggles to make shots from outside the basket area (37.0 percent last season), but he got enough putbacks and free throws to post a respectable shooting percentage.
Hill still fouls too much -- once every 7.8 minutes last season -- but that represented a big improvement on his first two seasons, and it appears he's learned better how to accommodate for his nightly strength disadvantage. Nonetheless, he can be manhandled by bigger centers and his overall defensive numbers remain fairly ugly -- opposing centers had a 20.3 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com, and Houston gave up 3.1 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court (nearly all Hill's regular-season minutes last season came as a Rocket).
Despite his defensive shortcomings, Hill is a useful player if he rebounds the way he did last season, and can take another step forward by establishing a bit more consistency with his 12- to 15-foot jumper. If he can convert that shot at a 40 percent clip and provide some offensive spacing, he'll be one of the league's better backup 5s.
ANTAWN JAMISON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.67.12.413.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Clever scorer with a quick release off the catch. Rarely dribbles. Has 3-point range.+ Lazy defender who hardly bothers helping from the weak side. Undersized, too.+ A tweener size-wise. Rebounding has dwindled. Rarely turns it over.
AnalysisApparently Jamison will keep scoring a point every two minutes with a microscopic turnover ratio until he's 90. At age 35 he suffered a career low in shooting percentage, but otherwise you'd have a hard time differentiating last season from any of the previous 10. Jamison shot 62.8 percent in the basket area and 34.1 percent on 3s, both right about where you'd expect, and had some of the best ballhandling numbers of his career -- the fifth-lowest turnover ratio among power forwards and a solid assist ratio.
Unfortunately, his midrange J completely went south. He made only 28.5 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet and he takes a ton of these -- more than five a game last season. With that dragging down his percentages, Jamison was just 62nd among power forward in TS% and 61st in 2-point shooting.
And he has to be a top-notch offensive player because his defense is just pathetic. Jamison doesn't foul, but that's because he's barely trying; few bigs are as unplugged from the game when on the weak side as he is. Jamison rated below the league average on Synergy and permitted an 18.0 PER to opposing power forwards, according to 82games.com, while having one of the worst rebound rates at his position.
But his real carnage comes in team defense; with his indifference pairing with Kyrie Irving's inexperience, the Cavs were about the worst pick-and-roll defense in captivity. Cleveland gave up 10.0 more points per 100 possessions with Jamison on the court last season, a trend that's been ongoing for several years.
DEVIN EBANKS, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Thin, long-armed small forward who can handle the ball. Must add strength.+ Aggressive, high-IQ performer who willingly defends and rebounds well.+ Can score near the basket but must improve his outside shot.
AnalysisEbanks earned 12 starts last season because of his defensive ability, but to stick as a rotation player, he'll need to show more at the offensive end. Ebanks is athletic enough to finish plays on fast breaks or when fed near the rim, but he made only 16 of his 52 tries outside the basket area, none of which were 3-pointers. He drew fouls at a strong clip, but overall mustered only 8.9 points per 40 minutes with a poor TS%. He'll need to do better to stick in the league.
The Lakers had Ebanks spotting up for 2s from the corner from 18 to 20 feet, and he showed some success in that range. But it's still a low-value shot; if he can extend the shot to the corner, he has better chance of producing enough offense to stay on the floor. If he does so, the positives are clear: He's an athletic wing who rebounds and plays solid, dogged defense.
STEVE BLAKE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER7.22.95.87.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Limited, low-mistake point guard who rarely attacks the paint. Good court vision.+ Mediocre defender. Tall and competitive, but lacks strength and foot speed. + Strictly spots up for 3s offensively. Doesn't push the tempo or draw fouls.
AnalysisThe first one you could write off as a bad season, perhaps. But after two in a row, it's getting increasingly difficult to justify Blake's continued presence in the Lakers' rotation. His main role is as a long-distance sniper, yet his TS% has been below the league average in both seasons in L.A. Last season he averaged just 8.9 points per 40 minutes and hit only 33.5 percent of his 3s -- that just won't get it done.
Again, Blake put virtually no pressure on the defense, earning only 27 free throw attempts and making eight -- yes, eight -- shots in the basket area the entire season. Despite that, he was far too turnover-prone, ranking just 55th among point guards in turnover ratio, with traps being a particular vulnerability. Adding to the misery, he had one of the worst rebound rates in the league.
Defensively, Blake's length made him more helpful, especially in the Lakers' low-risk, shoot-over-the-top-of-us system. Opposing point guards had a 13.8 PER against him, and the Lakers defended slightly better with Blake on the court.
CHRIS DUHON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER7.63.15.18.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Spot-up shooting point guard who mostly plays setup role. Rarely attacks.+ Struggles mightily against ball pressure. Wildly turnover prone. + Solid, low-risk defender. Average at best athletically but gets to right spots.
AnalysisA point guard in name only, Duhon can scarcely get the ball across half court these days. His turnover ratio was the second-worst among point guards, an incredible achievement given he got only 40 shots at the rim the entire season. In other words, he was staying out of the paint and still couldn't hang on to the ball. One shudders to think what might have happened if he attacked.
Duhon did hit 42.0 percent of his 3s, but he shot so rarely that he averaged only 7.7 points per 40 minutes. Basically, even with a complete outlier on 3-pointers, he was an abysmal offensive player.
He retains some value on defense, with decent lateral movement and technique and the advantage of experience. Synergy rated him above average last season, and the Magic gave up 5.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. According to 82games.com, opposing point guards had just a 12.9 PER against him. The defense gives him a smidgen of value as an end-of-quarter specialist, but it doesn't come close to offsetting the carnage he inflicts on his team's offense.
EARL CLARK, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.78.91.38.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Lean, long combo forward with defensive talent. Can run and finish.+ Good handle for his size but a terrible offensive player. Can't shoot and has bad instincts.+ Mostly shoots jumpers. Needs to add strength and get to rim. Tweener.
AnalysisClark looks like he could be an NBA defender, but he's having trouble converting his potential into results. At times he looked fantastic and he had some great blocks, but in between the highlights there just weren't enough results. Every indicator is strongly negative: Synergy rated him the third-worst defender in the league with at least 200 plays defended, opposing power forwards rang up a 17.3 PER against him according to 82games.com and the Magic gave up 4.1 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
One might suspect this is partly a Dwight Howard effect -- Clark almost never played with Howard -- but checking on NBA.com's advanced stats tool, Clark actually made Howard's on-court numbers worse. Subjectively, I'd say Clark is better than his numbers -- he was fourth among power forwards in blocks per minute -- but it strains logic to argue he was particularly good last season.
And if he can't defend, he can't play, because the dude is just brutal offensively. Clark shot 27.0 percent outside the basket area, and that's where most of his shots came from. Among power forwards, he was in the bottom three in 2-point percentage, field goal percentage, TS% and PER. He also had one of the worst turnover ratios at his position.
ANDREW GOUDELOUCK, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Big point guard with deep shooting range. Struggles to penetrate and create.+ Defensive liability against quick guards. Size, strength helpful closer to the basket.
AnalysisAdvertised as a point guard coming out of college, Goudelouck mostly played as a spot-up 2 in small lineups for the Lakers. Certainly he can shoot, making 37.1 percent of his 3s, but he wasn't quite deadly enough to offset his other weaknesses. Namely, he just can't create anything on his own. Goudelouck converted only 40.8 percent of his 2s, drew a mere 12 free throws and amazingly had only one basket at the rim the entire season. Additionally, he had a comically low assist ratio for a guard, at just 1.9 per 40 minutes.
Goudelouck proved nothing special at the defensive end, either; while it's tough to draw definite conclusions out of limited minutes, subjectively he seems a bit slow for the point and undersized for the 2. None of which will matter if he can't create more offensively, because his main selling point as a player is his long-range shooting. He'll need to convert in the 40s from downtown and get to the rim at least once a fortnight to stick in the league.
DARIUS MORRIS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Tall point guard with good handle and vision. Still learning his position. + Poor outside shooter. Can finish at basket but not an explosive athlete.+ Slender frame, will need to add strength. Length a plus on defense.
AnalysisMorris' rookie season was more encouraging than his 5.22 PER suggests, as he showed some NBA-level skills but was undone by a shaky jumper and an absurdly high turnover ratio.
Given the small sample, and the fact that high turnover ratios by rookies often precede great improvement, he's worth keeping an eye on going forward. He has to shoot better, because averaging just 10.9 points per 40 minutes while not spacing the floor isn't acceptable, but mostly he has to cut the turnovers --19 in just 170 minutes, or more than one for every basket he made. Morris was a late convert to the point and is just 21 years old, so we shouldn't rush to judgment, but he'll need to show some progress in Year 2.
DARIUS JOHNSON-ODOM, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Long-armed, lefty wing with deep shooting range. Strong, energetic defender.+ Undersized for a 2 but lacks ball skills for a 1. Not a great finisher or leaper.
AnalysisJohnson-Odom is potentially a perfect end-of-rotation guy -- he plays extremely hard and competes defensively and he can make an open jump shot, so coaches have no fear about inserting him into a game.
Beyond that, the ceiling gets low. Like, "Being John Malkovich" low. He's an undersized 2 who can't play the point, he doesn't have the elite scoring skills of some other undersized wings and his athletic numbers as a collegian are pretty tame -- he rarely blocks shots, for instance, and has a poor rebound rate. He might stick on a roster for half a decade anyway, however, because coaches love having guys like this at the end of their bench.
ROBERT SACRE, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season)
Scouting report+ Long big man who can score around the basket. Poor rebounder for his size.+ "B" athlete. Slow and needs to add strength. Raw offensive game.
AnalysisSacre is old for a rookie at 23 and had a very poor rebound rate for a player of his size, but I'm still talking myself into this pick. He drew a ton of fouls around the basket and shot 76 percent from the line, and his length should make him at least somewhat useful at the defensive end. Those are the glimmers of hope one sorts through at the end of the second round. He might be able to give L.A. 10 good minutes a game off the bench.
RAJON RONDO, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.84.912.317.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long-armed, creative point guard who penetrates at will and sees the floor.+ Erratic outside shooter but good short-range finisher. Terrible foul shooter.+ Disruptive defender. Will over-gamble at times. Great rebounder for his size.
AnalysisOne of the league's most unique players, Rondo is either great or horrible at nearly everything, producing wildly divergent viewpoints as to his overall value. In the same season, he was passed over in favor of Luol Deng for the All-Star team and named on eight MVP ballots.
The truth is somewhere in between. Rondo can create shots for others, but generating his own points remains problematic. He scored only 12.9 points per 40 minutes, placing him 52nd among point guards, and was also 52nd in true shooting percentage at a lowly 48.3. This is mainly because he doesn't generate 3-pointers or free throws: Rondo's 59.7 percent mark from the line was the worst of any point guard, and he made only 10 3-pointers the entire season. As a result, his secondary percentage was 68th out of 70 point guards.
Even his 2-point percentage (46.4) was nothing to write home about; Rondo made only 58.9 percent in the basket area and has done much better in other seasons. He hit 37.2 percent of his long 2s, so he's becoming almost respectable from that distance, but defenses still would much rather concede this shot than let Rondo penetrate.
Of course, his passing is what does most of the damage. Rondo finished second in the NBA in pure point rating; while his turnover ratio is higher than you'd prefer, it's tough to quibble with an assist every three minutes. As an added plus, he also ranked fourth among point guards in rebound rate.
The general consensus was that Rondo's defense slipped a bit last season, that he gambled too much and his effort wavered. While opposing point guards mustered just a 10.9 PER against him, Boston gave up more points with him on the court, and his foul rate was so low (barely one every 20 minutes) that it supported the idea that he was saving himself for the offensive end. His steals rate was also a career low, although still well above par for his position.
AVERY BRADLEY, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.63.42.710.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Elite perimeter defender. Excels at pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers.+ Undersized for a 2 but not a point guard. Solid midrange shooter but lacks range.+ Must improve left hand and cut turnovers. Good finisher. Poor rebounder.
AnalysisAn already good Boston defense reached another level when Bradley took over as the starting shooting guard, and he looks to be a fixture for several seasons based on his suffocating ball pressure.
Bradley actually didn't have an unusually high steal rate, as he didn't take gambles off the ball, but on it he routinely devoured dribblers with his outstanding lateral quickness. Bradley had some of the best Synergy scores at his position and held opposing guards to barely double digit PERs; the Celtics also gave up 4.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. Opposing 2s occasionally found success attacking him in the post, but even there he did a fairly solid job.
Of equal importance was Bradley's offensive development -- not great but good enough to play. Bradley made 41.3 percent of his long 2s and converted a very strong 65.3 percent at the basket; overall, his 2-point shooting percentage was eighth among shooting guards.
While he attempted only 54 3-pointers on the season, he made a respectable 22 of them. Bradley will need to refine his long-range shot and rely on it instead of all the 15-footers, as he ranked just 53rd out of 61 shooting guards in secondary percentage by taking mostly 2s and rarely drawing fouls.
Additionally, his ball skills need a lot of work. Boston didn't ask a ton of him offensively, but his turnover ratio still ranked 56th among shooting guards. That's not acceptable for a bit player, and if he's a subpar ball handler for a 2 (just 50th in pure point rating), it seems a long shot that he can become a functional point guard. On a positive note, he turns 22 in November and has a chance to improve substantially because he's already getting consistent minutes.
PAUL PIERCE, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.36.24.917.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Multifaceted scoring threat who can pull up or drive to the basket. Draws fouls.+ Excellent midrange shooter off the dribble. Can make spot-up 3s. Good handle.+ Vastly underrated defender. Strong, tough and moves his feet.
AnalysisPierce turns 35 in October and will likely begin showing signs of age at some point. We just don't know when that will be. Last season, he actually took on a much greater offensive load given the struggles of Boston's secondary players, ranking fourth among small forwards in usage rate, and it didn't seem to hurt him. Pierce's TS% dropped, understandably, but he still finished a solid eighth among small forwards in this category and belied his age by converting 64.8 percent at the rim. He also still draws fouls like nobody's business, ranking fourth in free throw rate at his position despite shooting mostly jumpers.
The biggest drawback was that he took a lot more long 2s under duress, making only 35.9 percent while shooting more than five a game. Pierce's 3-point game also slipped a bit (36.6 percent), again because he was hoisting more hot potatoes at the end of the shot clock. However, he wasn't just blind gunning -- he also finished in the top third of small forwards in assist ratio and pure point rating.
Defensively, Pierce remains one of the league's more underrated players, but his data wasn't quite as strong last season. Opposing small forwards had a 13.3 PER against him, but Boston gave up more points with him on the court and his Synergy rating, while strong, wasn't up to his usual standard. The addition of Avery Bradley should save him some wear at the defensive end, and he'll need it if he's going to take on such a large offensive role again. But against the bigger wings -- like that guy on Miami, for instance -- it's still Pierce getting the assignment.
BRANDON BASS, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.77.81.214.0(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Tough, strong but undersized big man with an accurate midrange jump shot.+ Can be effective driving right and finishing. Rarely looks to pass.+ Average at best defensively. Lacks length and has limited help awareness.
AnalysisBass actually had a bad offensive season by his standards, but in one particular area he was stellar -- the guy is money on pick-and-pop jumpers. Bass made 48.1 percent of his shots from 10 to 23 feet and was one of just 20 players to take more than 400 shots from this range. Unfortunately, he shot better on jumpers than closer to the hoop, converting only 47.6 percent from inside 10 feet. He drew a decent number of fouls for a jump shooter and provided solid, reasonably efficient scoring, but he's done better in previous seasons.
Bass still rarely passes once he catches it, ranking 59th out of 70 power forwards in assist ratio, but last season he significantly cut down on his turnovers. That's the one benefit of shooting so many long 2s off the catch -- it's tough to lose the ball when it's in your possession for only half a second.
Defensively, Bass had some of the highest Synergy ratings in the NBA last season, but subjective observation and other metrics fail to back that up. The Celtics gave up more points with him on the court than off of it, and opposing power forwards had a 13.7 PER against him -- solid but hardly exceptional given the elite defensive team surrounding him. He's tough and he's become much sharper situationally than when he first got to Orlando, but it's hard to rate him as more than a midtier defender at this spot.
KEVIN GARNETT, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.39.93.317.0(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Intense, long, slender big man who excels in help defense. Strong leader.+ Mostly shoots midrange jumps. Rarely posts up. Excellent passer.+ Good handle for his size. Has struggled with knee problems. Plays very hard.
AnalysisWhen Garnett finished the first month of the season, he couldn't jump and was noticeably dragging his leg. But as the year went on, he turned into the KG of old, abetted by a midseason shift to center. His season-ending stats were nearly the same as the year before, although he continued his drift to the perimeter. Nearly two-thirds of his shots were beyond 10 feet, and he converted an excellent 45.9 percent of them. However, Garnett took advantage of his length, especially in the playoffs -- he went to the post much more often for short-range turnarounds and showed he can still be extremely effective from that spot.
Garnett also remains an exquisite passer from the high post, ranking sixth among power forwards in pure point rating. All told, he has the stats of a much shorter player, but that's partially due to dragging opposing bigs out to the perimeter.
Meanwhile, his defense is elite -- nobody defends the pick-and-roll better. Only four players had a better Synergy rating, and his regularized adjusted plus-minus was better than all but five players. He was 12th in the league in defensive rebound rate, although he rarely contests the offensive boards anymore, and in the playoffs his presence was especially palpable. Boston gave up a 25.1 points per 100 possessions more when he was off the court, according to basketballvalue.com.
Garnett is re-signed for three more seasons, and while his minutes are likely to be restricted to the high 20s to keep him fresh for the postseason, he remains a hugely impactful player at both ends. Given his length, intensity and skill for his size, that should remain the case for as long as his knees can hold up.
JASON TERRY, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.72.84.313.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Fast combo guard with deadly midrange jump shot, especially going right. + Not a true point guard but capable of creating off the dribble. Abysmal rebounder.+ Lacks size and strength on defense but has fast hands. Better in cross-matches.
AnalysisTerry has become an ageless wonder, still putting up numbers as an undersized 2-guard thanks to his devastating accuracy with the jump shot. Terry shot 42.1 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet and 37.8 percent on 3s, with the latter accounting for nearly half of his shots. As a result, he averaged nearly a point every two minutes with a solid TS% even though he virtually never gets to the rim.
The biggest negative, offensively, is that Terry's turnover ratio keeps climbing. A jump shooter shouldn't be in the bottom half of shooting guards in turnover ratio, but Terry was last season.
Fewest Fouls Per 40 minutes, 2011-12Player Team Fouls/40 min.Steve Nash Phx 1.08Jason Terry Dal 1.38Joe Johnson Atl 1.41Tayshaun Prince Det 1.48Brandon Rush GS 1.49Min. 500 minutesNonetheless, his primary shortcoming is at the defensive end. Terry has to cross-match defensively and check the opposing point guard, but quicker players can get by him and bigger ones play right over the top. His rebound rates are among the worst in basketball, although he doesn't foul -- only Steve Nash was whistled less often last season (see chart). Boston's personnel should allow Terry to keep cross-matching, and if so he'll continue to be very effective in his sixth man role.
COURTNEY LEE, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.53.82.112.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Athletic wing who plays solid defense. Deadly corner 3-point shooter.+ Limited ball skills but a good leaper and finisher. Mediocre shooter off the bounce.+ Shies away from contact on drives and rarely draws fouls. Rarely goes left.
AnalysisA classic role-playing wing on paper, Lee has had trouble making good on the theory. Lee has shot better than 40 percent on 3s in consecutive seasons, and the only question is why he doesn't do it more. Over the past two seasons, barely a third of his shots have been 3-point attempts -- a poor rate for such an effective sniper. Lee likes to take a bounce inside the line for 2s but isn't nearly as effective from that range, making only 36.5 percent of his long 2s last season and 36.7 percent the year before.
As a result, even though he makes 3s and shoots well at the rim for a player of this ilk (62.6 percent, mostly on fast-break finishes), his TS% of 53.4 was exactly at the league average for shooting guards, and his PER was firmly in Backupville. He has the talent to do more if he focuses on his best skills.
Defensively, it's a similar story -- Lee has an excellent reputation but only middling results. Last season, the Rockets didn't fare any better with him on the court, even though he was usually replacing Kevin Martin. Synergy actually rated him below the league average at his position, and the numbers weren't any better the year before.
So we're left with a conundrum. On past performance, Boston overpaid. But given his skill set, he offers the promise of a high-50s TS% and above-average defense -- a player like that would be hugely valuable.
JEFF GREEN, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Combo forward who can handle the ball and post up against smaller players.+ Subpar outside shooter. Good finisher in transition. Not an elite athlete.+ Was destroyed by post-up 4s. Solid wing defender against 3s.
AnalysisGreen didn't play at all last season after having heart surgery. In the four seasons prior, he had done nothing to prove he was more than a passable combo forward off the bench. As a result, the Celtics gave him more money than Kevin Garnett.
While the four-year, $36 million contract he signed this offseason boggles the mind, Green does have some uses. Just not the ways Oklahoma City used him. Green was a train wreck as a face-up 4, shooting under 30 percent on 3s in consecutive seasons, getting torn apart by post players and rebounding like a wing.
As a wing, however, there's the hope that his size will become an advantage, and that he can take some smaller 3s on the block with his jump hook. Meanwhile, his defensive stats as a 3 in his few games as a Celtic in 2010-11 were vastly superior to his results as a 4 in Oklahoma City. The hope is he can provide another big wing to guard the likes of LeBron James in the playoffs, but it's not clear whom the Celtics thought they were bidding against with this deal.
JARED SULLINGER, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Powerful 4 with a wide base. Low-post scorer with good midrange touch.+ Physical rebounder. Plays below rim. Not a great athlete. Back injury a concern.
AnalysisJust on basketball, Sullinger should have been a higher pick. He's not going to be a great defensive player, but offensively he's a bull who may average a double-double at some point. He dominated the paint in his two years at Ohio State, and while he'll have to prove he can get baskets against size, he'll also have a lot more pick-and-pop chances than he did in college. Basically, he projects as a better version of Brandon Bass.
Alas, his back freaked out teams enough that he fell to No. 21. Sullinger may need surgery at some point, and his conditioning and athleticism were already worrisome at the next level.
FAB MELO, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Outstanding shot-blocker with ideal size and length for a center.+ Poor rebounder for his size. Lacks offensive feel. Iffy hands and limited range.
AnalysisA Brazilian import, Melo had the best shot-blocking rate of any draftee with two eyebrows, and that's the primary reason Boston invested a first-round pick. He's fairly old for a first-rounder at 22, but given his delayed development, there's hope he can add a few more offensive elements to his repertoire. He's not a terrible foul shooter and his assist/turnover rates at Syracuse were a lot better than that of many other centers, so he's not irredeemable at that end.
More worrisome were his pedestrian board numbers, especially defensively, where his 14.3 schedule-adjusted rebound rate was embarrassing for a 7-footer. (Comparison: He had the same mark as Missouri's 6-foot-3 shooting guard Marcus Denmon.) Melo will need to grab a few more boards to help what is already among the league's most rebound-challenged teams.
KEYON DOOLING, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.12.33.77.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Quick combo guard who is a strong defender at both guard spots.+ Decent spot-up shooter but struggles off the dribble. Lacks handle to create shots.+ Weak finisher at the rim. Not a point guard. Terrible rebounder.
AnalysisDooling had his moments, especially in Boston's playoff run. But all told it was tough to justify keeping him on the court with such anemic production -- he finished last among point guards in PER. Half his shots were 3s, but he only made 33.3 percent, and his production was otherwise miniscule. He averaged only 11 points and three assists per 40 minutes, and among point guards, he had the eighth-worst assist ratio and seventh-worst pure point rating.
Dooling also had the single worst rebound rate in basketball, retrieving only 3.5 percent of missed shots -- his third straight season in that range -- to narrowly outpace Jimmer Fredette and Raja Bell (see chart). He also had the third-lowest rate of steals at his position.
Worst Rebound Rate, 2011-12Player Team Rebound RateKeyon Dooling Bos 3.47Jimmer Fredette Sac 3.53Raja Bell Uta 3.53Devin Harris Uta 3.69Steve Blake LAL 3.84Min. 500 minutesDefensively, Dooling has issues and wasn't particularly good at this end last season. The Celtics gave up 8.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and Synergy rated him as Boston's worst defender. I'd describe him more as average than bad -- he's lost athleticism, but he competes and matches up fairly well against the shorter scoring guards. Still, it was a bit of a surprise to see Boston bring him back.
JASON COLLINS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Elite low-post defender who stymies big centers with size and smarts.+ Physical. Great at drawing offensive fouls. Awful rebounder. Ponderously slow. + Horrid finisher. No handle or post game. Will occasionally make a 12-footer.
AnalysisCollins hardly played until the Hawks dusted him off for the playoffs, where he played impressive defense and did shockingly little else. Collins averaged just 5.1 points per 40 minutes, shot 40 percent, rebounded like a guard and had nearly as many fouls as points.
That's a D-League résumé, and not a particularly good one. But one skill offset all those negatives: Synergy rated Collins as the best defender on the Hawks and one of the best in the league. He doesn't look like he's doing much, but he's big, knows exactly where to be and excels at taking charges. He also fouls with abandon and can't stay on the court long, but he can still be helpful in the right matchup.
CHRIS WILCOX, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ High-leaping finisher who excels as a pick-and-roll dive man. Poor shooter.+ Subpar defensive player who lacks intensity and strength. Fouls often. + No post game. Weak ball handler. Solid rebounder at both ends.
AnalysisWilcox played 28 games before a heart problem unexpectedly ended his season, and while he predictably declined from his Fluke Rule campaign of a year earlier, he still showed he can be a high-percentage finisher by converting 59.8 percent from the floor. Wilcox's rebound rate dipped, however, and his turnover ratio nearly doubled.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign was that he showed more defensive resistance than in previous stops. While the Celtics played better with him off the court and opposing bigs had a 17.2 PER against him, his attention and physicality went up a notch from what we'd seen in previous years. Wilcox is only 29, so he should be able to come back and contribute as a decent rotation player, especially at his more natural 4 spot. However, his inability to space the floor is always going to limit his court time.
KRIS JOSEPH, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Athletic, hustling 3 with limited offensive skills. Midrange shooter.+ Decent handle for his size. Average rebounder. Needs to add strength.
AnalysisA late second-round pick, Joseph's best shot at sticking is to play the energizer role with his defense and leaping ability. Short of that, it's not obvious what he brings to the table. Despite his reputation as a leaper, his block and rebound rates were ordinary. He's nothing special as a shooter or scorer, either, and at 23 he's quite old for a rookie. Boston has had a love affair with the "athletic hustling wing that can't play offense" archetype dating back to Orien Greene and has made it work on occasion (most recently with Avery Bradley). But I'd be surprised if Joseph sticks.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 17:03 (thirteen years ago)
Here are my player scouting reports and 2012-13 projections for the San Antonio Spurs. (Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '11-12.)
TONY PARKER, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.53.58.920.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Fleet Frenchman who excels at penetrating for short-range floaters and layups. + Subpar outside shooter. Shoot-first mindset, but a much-improved passer.+ Solid defensive player. Quick and bigger than he looks, but not always engaged.
AnalysisParker had without a doubt his best season as a distributor. Normally he's played more as a scorer, but last season he ranked fifth in the NBA in pure point rating and dished out 9.6 assists per 40 minutes. He's become much better at locating spot-up shooters in particular, and now uses his driving ability to set up those shots as much as his own floaters. In addition, Parker created a ton of offense (12th in the NBA in usage rate) with the 10th-lowest turnover ratio among point guards.
As a shooter, Parker has more or less given up on 3-pointers, but he had a very good season shooting midrange jumpers when defenders went behind the screen. Parker made 40.9 percent of his long 2s, although he had a lower shooting percentage overall because he "only" made 45.7 percent from 3 to 9 feet -- Parker normally ranks in the top five in the league from this distance. In addition he shot 65.7 percent in the basket area with a high free throw rate, which is impressive stuff from a small guard.
Defensively, the Spurs played dramatically better with Parker on the court, giving up 7.9 points per 100 possessions less. That said, I'm not sure that had a ton to do with Parker. Opposing point guards had a 15.1 player efficiency rating against him according to 82games.com, and Synergy rated him below the league average.
Parker also had the third-lowest foul rate among point guards and one of the lowest steal rates, which jibes with my general impression watching him: He was solid, but he picked his spots and saved his energy for all the racing around he did on offense. The Spurs almost never had him defend elite point guards, often assigning Danny Green the task.
DANNY GREEN, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.86.12.315.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Jack-of-all trades wing with good outside shot. Weak handle.+ Good rebounder for size. High scoring rate for a jump shooter. + Active defender who gets hands on balls, but not a great athlete.
AnalysisGreen's college and D-League stats gave every indication that he was an NBA player, and he finally got a chance to prove it in San Antonio. Plugged in as a sometime-floor spacer, sometime-defensive stopper, sometime-orchestrator, Green's variety of skills made him a perfect chameleon for whatever the Spurs needed.
The key was his 3-point shot; Green made 43.6 percent of his 3s while taking nearly half his tries from beyond the arc. That provided a base for his other skills, which were basically just good enough. He was mediocre in every other offensive category but not awful in any, and combined with all those 3-point bombs it made him valuable. Overall, Green finished ninth at his position in true shooting percentage while scoring at a solid 15.8 points per 40 minutes clip.
Green also proved tenacious on the glass, where he finished sixth among shooting guards in rebound rate, and surprisingly active on defense. He was fourth at his position in blocks per minute and 17th in steals, without an excessive foul rate. In particular, he's become adept at poking balls from behind players without getting burned, and often checked elite point guards to give Tony Parker a breather. He's still more "adequate" than excellent at this end -- and the data was all over the place on him, so it doesn't help us much -- but again, it's another piece of value to add to the 3-point weapon.
Green's 3-point shot abandoned him in the conference finals, making 4-of-23, and he played just eight minutes total in the final two games. He may not shoot 43 percent from downtown again, but he does enough other things reasonably well that he'll be a very solid rotation player.
KAWHI LEONARD, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.78.12.118.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Long-armed wing with huge hands. Excellent rebounder for size.+ Athletic finisher but average jump shooter with a slow, low release.+ Excellent hands and anticipation on defense, but still learning ropes.
AnalysisLeonard was a revelation as a rookie, ranking among the league's top small forwards in several different categories while finishing ninth overall in PER and looking every bit like a young Shawn Marion along the way. His rebounding is his most notable skill, as he finished fifth at his position in rebound rate and second on the offensive glass, but he's also a great finisher who had the third-best 2-point shooting percentage at his position (53.6 percent) and converted 68.8 percent in the basket area.
Leonard didn't draw fouls a high rate, but made very few mistakes for a rookie as well, finishing 11th out of 67 small forwards in turnover ratio. He also proved farther along as a jump shooter, hitting 37.6 percent of his 3s. He mostly shot just wide-open corner shots, however, and he broke down on the move -- Leonard made just 29.4 percent of his long 2s.
Defensively, Leonard had the second-best steals rate at his position and one of the lowest foul rates, an enviable combination. His steals rarely came off bad gambles, but he still has to do a better job in other defensive situations. San Antonio gave up 2.8 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court and opposing small forwards had a 15.0 PER against him, according to 82games.com. The Spurs tried to use him as a defensive stopper early in games, but he's not up for this gig yet. In time, maybe.
BORIS DIAW, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.47.55.011.0(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Ballhandling combo forward held back by his increasingly poor conditioning.+ Sees floor well but often eschews easy shots to make the pass. Midrange shooter.+ Good defensive player. Strong and moves his feet well. Subpar rebounder.
AnalysisStranger than fiction: In a matter of days, Diaw went from one of the worst players on the worst teams in history to starting for one of the league's best teams. Diaw also played dramatically better as a Spur, much to the consternation of Bobcats fans who watched him loaf through two-thirds of a season in Charlotte. One key, however, was that he was badly out of shape at the start of the year but had improved considerably in this area by the time he reached San Antonio.
Combining everything, it still wasn't a great season, and Diaw's level of play reverted to somewhere closer to normal in the postseason. He remains an outstanding passer who ranked second among power forwards in pure point rating, and as a Spur he was more aggressive and less prone to passing up easy shots -- in particular, he's shown a tremendous knack for reverse layups.
For the season Diaw shot solidly on 2s (49.6 percent) and wasn't terrible on 3s (31.3 percent), but what really killed him was he never drew fouls. He had only 35 free throw attempts the entire season, producing the fifth-lowest free throw rate at his position, and for that reason he was 54th out of 70 power forwards in TS%.
Defensively, Diaw wasn't particularly good in Charlotte but played much better in San Antonio. Given his solid rep and career numbers in this area, one suspects he'll remain a quality defender as long as he lays off the pastries. It's questionable whether he should be starting given his offensive limitations, but if he's in shape he's a decent stopgap and an outstanding third big to bring off the bench.
TIM DUNCAN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.611.93.119.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Low-post technician with a midrange bank shot and a variety of short hooks. + Has defensive value due to his smarts and very long arms, but has lost quickness.+ Good rebounder. Smart, team-oriented player. Improved midrange shooter.
AnalysisA lighter, fresher Duncan put up the same offensive numbers, but he was able to move better defensively and showed considerably more impact at that end. Every metric indicates that Duncan was a huge factor, with Synergy grading Duncan well above the mean for centers. The Spurs gave up 6.2 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, and regularized adjusted plus-minus shows him to be the league's single most impactful defensive player last season.
Offensively, Duncan moved out of the low post and into the elbow, and found it agreed with him. Not known as a shooter, he made a stellar 47.1 percent of his shots from 10-23 feet; in fact it was the post-ups that gave him more trouble, as he hit only 35.3 percent from 3-to-9 feet. Duncan somehow drew more fouls anyway, and provided the usual ancillary benefits we've come to expect: fourth in defensive rebound rate among centers, 10th in pure point rating, and sporting the third-lowest foul rate.
Duncan signed a three-year deal in the offseason and appears to be in good shape physically. On the flip side, he's 36 and his long-range shooting marks from last season seem like strong candidates to regress to their historic mean. His PER may slip a couple points as a result, but if he can provide similar impact at the defensive end, the Spurs will stay in the hunt.
MANU GINOBILI, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.05.87.021.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Left-handed pick-and-roll maestro. Excels at slashing to the basket for fouls.+ Daring passer with great court vision. Good finisher. Likes step-back set shot.+ Very good rebounder. Vastly underrated defender with quick hands.
AnalysisHe played only half a season, but what a half-season it was. Ginobili ranked second in PER among shooting guards, ahead of some guy named Bryant from Los Angeles, and was third in the NBA in TS% (see chart), with the two players ahead of him playing much more secondary offensive roles.
It gets better -- Ginobili is basically a point guard at this point, leading all shooting guards in both assist ratio and pure point rating. He led all shooting guards in 2-point field goal percentage at an absurd 61.6 percent, and finished in the top dozen players at his spot in free throw rate, rebound rate and blocked shots.
True Shooting % Leaders, 2011-12Player Team TS%Tyson Chandler NY 70.8Steve Novak NY 68.4Manu Ginobili SA 66.8James Harden OKC 66.0Tiago Splitter SA 64.9Min. 500 minutesMin. 500 minutesCalling it a career year isn't quite right, but a career half-year? Given that he shot 52.6 percent to blow away his career high, tied his career best in PER, and set or threatened his bests in several other categories, I'd say so. Or consider this: The Spurs scored an unfathomable 121.0 points per 100 possessions with Ginobili on the floor last season, putting them nearly 20 points better than the league average.
Unfortunately, he couldn't sustain it in the playoffs -- his shooting percentages were going to crash back to earth at some point, and the postseason was that point. He shot only 33.8 percent on 3s and 44.9 percent overall, with lower rates of scoring and assists; more alarmingly, he finished the playoffs with more turnovers than assists.
All of which should temper our expectations for Ginobili this season: He's good, but he's not as crazy good as he looked in that 34-game sample in the regular season. It wasn't quite a Fluke Rule season, but a lot of the same caveats apply.
STEPHEN JACKSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.55.23.610.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big, high-strung guard who plays over the top of most wings. Likes pull-up 3s.+ Lacks great burst and has a high dribble. Will lose ball on drives. Very durable.+ Good size but has lost a step defensively. Runs oddly, barely bends knees.
AnalysisJackson looked finished in Milwaukee and performed only marginally better in San Antonio before exploding in the playoffs, shooting 60.5 percent on 3s (!) and missing one free throw in 14 postseason games.
Big-picture data, however, says it was still a rough year. Jackson hit only 28.8 percent of his regular-season 3-pointers; even if you add in his torrid playoff shooting that gets you to only 35.2 percent, which is right at his career average.
Otherwise, his game is slipping. Jackson keeps trying to penetrate but can't get past defenders cleanly and doesn't have a great handle. In a related story, he had the third-worst turnover ratio at his position and, despite his passing skill, was 57th out of 67 small forwards in pure point rating. Inside the arc, he was 50th in 2-point percentage at his position and hit just 27.7 percent of his long 2s.
Defensively he's lost a step as well, although he has good hands for steals (11th among small forwards); Synergy graded him below average in both Milwaukee and San Antonio, although he clearly put more energy into it as a Spur. In the big picture he'll likely shoot better than he did in the 2011-12 regular season, but still is no more than an end-of-the-rotation player.
GARY NEAL, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.54.03.613.5(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Sweet-shooting guard who can score off the catch or dribble. Rarely draws fouls. + Has some ball skills and can run the pick-and-roll. Can play point but is better as a 2. + Not a great athlete. Undersized for the 2 but torched by fast point guards.
AnalysisNeal played a lot of backup point guard last season, but at both ends he's a much better fit playing off the ball and only occasionally orchestrating offense. He finished second-to-last among point guards in assist ratio and 60th out of 70 in pure point rating, and defensively was shredded by fast guards.
It's his jump shot that keeps him in the league, and on that score he didn't disappoint. Neal shot 41.9 percent on 3s and threw in a respectable 44.6 percent mark inside the arc, plus he's as comfortable shooting off the dribble as he is off the catch, so he was able to score at a high rate (18.5 points per 40 minutes). Neal also can create off the dribble a bit running pick-and-roll, but nearly always for his own offense.
Defensively, he's a liability at either guard spot, but playing him at point guard is especially dicey. Synergy rated him well below average and the Spurs gave up 6.7 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Meanwhile, 82games.com reports opposing point guards ripped him for a 21.3 PER but shooting guards mustered just a 10.8. The data was similar a year earlier, when he played the 2 almost exclusively and surrendered just an 11.4 mark. Neal also ranked among the bottom 10 point guards in both blocks and steals per minute.
TIAGO SPLITTER, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.411.22.520.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big low-post center who likes to play physical. Good finisher who draws fouls. + Solid rebounder. Limited perimeter game. Makes awkward-looking hook shot.+ Tough but not mobile. Struggles on defense, especially against pick-and-roll.
AnalysisSo … how much of this was real? Splitter played less than 20 minutes a game, but when he did he put up All-Star caliber numbers: 19.6 points and 10.9 boards per 40 minutes, a 61.8 percent shooting mark, and better than a free throw for every two field goal attempts. He made only four jumpers all season, but he shot 72.5 percent at the rim and a solid 43.8 percent on his awkward little half-hooks from 3-to-9 feet.
I'm asking because Splitter makes only $3.9 million this season, and then becomes a free agent. If he plays anywhere near this well again, he's going to get paid with a capital P. He finished 10th among centers in PER after posting strong numbers in his rookie season, although at 27 he's likely peaked. One suspects his field goal percentage is due for some regression, but if he keeps shooting in the 60s he's a star.
Splitter went through a brutal free throw slump that saw teams intentionally fouling him in the playoffs -- he was only 16-of-43 in the postseason -- but wasn't a bad foul shooter overall; his 69.1 percent was above the league average for centers. One oddity is that he stands slightly left of center on free throw attempts and shoots a push shot off his right shoulder; straightening him out might help.
Splitter still struggles at the defensive end, however, where his lack of mobility gives him problems in pick-and-roll defense. He's not a shot-blocker and just average as a rebounder. Overall, opposing centers posted a 17.2 PER against him according to 82games.com, and opponents scored 3.1 points more per 100 possessions with him on the floor. His numbers from the year before were nearly identical. But if he can master NBA defense, he's going to be a very wealthy man next summer.
MATT BONNER, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.26.82.012.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Ruggedly built 3-point marksman with a high-arcing launch off the shoulder. + Not a creator, but can shoot runners off the dribble. No post game. Rarely rebounds.+ Good size but unathletic. Won't block shots. Struggles in pick-and-roll defense.
AnalysisBonner refined his high-efficiency game even further last season, posting the lowest turnover ratio in basketball at a miniscule 3.2 while passing well enough to lead all power forwards in pure point rating -- a seemingly impossible combo that he nonetheless pulled off (see chart). Bonner led the league by a wide margin, while ranking fourth among power forwards in true shooting percentage.
Lowest Turnover Ratio, 2011-12Player Team TO RatioMatt Bonner SA 3.2Al Jefferson Uta 4.7Daequan Cook OKC 4.8Jodie Meeks Phi 4.9James Jones Mia 5.2Min. 500 minutesBonner took more than two-thirds of his shots from beyond the arc and hit a stellar 42.0 percent of them, but he again showed a knack for taking a dribble or two in and converting on the move. Bonner made 16 of his 31 attempts from 3 to 9 feet, a range where most players struggle.
Unfortunately, he didn't create nearly enough of those opportunities, with the sixth-lowest usage rate among power forwards, and his shooting threat proved fairly easy for prepared teams to extinguish during the playoffs. He also never drew fouls -- only two players had a lower free throw rate.
Defensively, Bonner is again an extreme low-mistake player -- he had the lowest rate of fouls and the lowest rate of steals among power forwards. He's useless on the boards, ranking 68th out of 70 power forwards, and he's not an elite individual defender, but he's become quite adept in the team concept. Synergy gave Bonner sparkling ratings, and opposing power forwards had just an 8.9 PER against him. While those numbers overstate things, he's become very solid at this end.
DEJUAN BLAIR, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.611.32.418.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Short, heavy frontcourt player with surprising athleticism. Great rebounder.+ Conditioning and knee injuries are concerns. Poor outside shooter. + Lack of size a major impediment on defense. Decent mobility and strong.
Analysis"DeJuan, we're tired of you being out of shape. We're replacing you with Boris Diaw."
Actually, this made more sense than at first glance. Blair has been awfully productive for a guy the Spurs banish to the end of the bench every spring, but his particular weaknesses have made him better as a stopgap than long-term solution. Blair is short, struggles to defend and can't space the floor, and those problems have offset his otherwise commendable productivity.
Defense is the main thing that cost Blair his gig. He rated well below the league average for power forwards via Synergy, and opposing power forwards strutted to a 16.4 PER according to 82games.com. San Antonio also gave up 2.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Subjectively, Blair also struggled to stay in shape, and unlike Diaw it does appear to affect him on the court.
Offensively, Blair showed a bit of a midrange game last season (42.5 percent from 10 feet and beyond) but as usual was incredibly effective in the paint, shooting 64.8 percent in the basket area while taking three quarters of his shots from there. He also ranked third among power forwards in offensive rebound rate, and those second shots helped him average 17.9 points per 40 minutes without having any plays called for him.
He's a poor ballhandler, however, ranking 56th out of 70 power forwards in pure point rating, and his defensive rebounding (54th) was a major disappointment. Blair has great hands and ranked fifth among power forwards in steals per minute, but gambled too much and ranked eighth in fouls.
But the biggest problem is that he can't space the floor, and with two other bigs sharing the same weakness but playing better (Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter), it got too hard to justify playing him. Blair is trade bait now, but likely will produce wherever he goes.
PATTY MILLS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Fast, undersized point guard with a scorer's mentality. Good outside shooter. + Very poor dribbler. Struggles to advance ball against pressure. + Lack of size a problem on defense. Poor rebounder. Must improve strength.
AnalysisMills returned from overseas late in the year and played very well in limited minutes for the Spurs, playing 261 minutes largely in garbage-time situations. He shot extremely well in his limited time, making 24 of 56 3s and all 15 free throw attempts. He shot a lot, too: His usage rate nearly matched Tony Parker's, and it wasn't because of the assists.
Though a limited sample, that performance has Mills on the list of candidates to play backup point guard this season. However, his most likely scenario is a situational player used to space the floor when the defensive matchups are in his favor. He really struggles handling the ball and needs somebody like Manu Ginobili on the floor with him to serve as a de facto point guard, and his size makes him a defensive liability.
CORY JOSEPH, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Combo guard with secure handle. Can get to the basket and score. Average shooter.+ Drives more to score and not pass. Solid build but short for a 2.+ Offers good defensive potential. Not a great athlete but good lateral quickness.
AnalysisJoseph played in just 29 games and mostly struggled, shooting 31.4 percent and averaging just 8.7 points per 40 minutes. The one silver lining was that he averaged three assists for every turnover, a positive sign that he might be more point guard-inclined than many thought on draft day.
His 14 games in the D-League largely supported that notion, although his assist and turnover ratios weren't quite as strong and he looked more to score. Joseph will need to develop his 3-point shot further and likely will spend most of next year in Austin as well, as there don't appear to be clear avenues to a rotation spot with the parent club.
NANDO DE COLO, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Combo guard with outstanding passing skill. Solid outside shooter.+ Gets to the line and is a great foul shooter. B athlete. May struggle to create and defend.
AnalysisLet's hope he can play, because I'd hate to see such a good name wasted on a scrub. That said, I'm not totally sure what to make of De Colo. Statistically he comes across as a poor man's Manu Ginobili, except for the part about shots from the field going in the basket. The signifying event would be De Colo's 2010-11 Euroleague season, in which he shot a stellar 67-of-70 from the foul line -- and 54-of-171 from the field. Ugh. He's 25 years old and he may struggle to defend whatever position he plays, but if he shoots a decent percentage from the floor he could help fill out the Spurs' backcourt.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER27.64.96.723.7(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Freakishly athletic shoot-first guard with great burst to basket. Penetrates at will.+ Shaky long-range shooter but excels at midrange pull-up. Makes bad decisions.+ Could be excellent defender, but effort has slackened. Great offensive rebounder.
AnalysisWestbrook is still getting the hang of this point guard thing, but you can see the quality of his decisions and passing gradually improving -- most notably in the stunning conference finals turnaround against San Antonio.
That said, he's still a scorer at heart, ranking just 63rd out of 70 point guards in pure point rating and seeing his assist ratio tank to 2-guard levels last season. Westbrook led all players except Kobe Bryant in usage rate last season (see Bryant comment), which was a bit eye-opening what with the scoring champ playing next to him and all.
Westbrook shot only 31.8 percent on 3s and took over three a game, and while he's not a bad midrange shooter (40.9 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet), again, his tendency to highlight this aspect of his game is frustrating. You'd much rather see him attack the rim, where he shot 61.6 percent in the basket area, drew heaps of fouls, and was money from the line.
Defensively, Westbrook has the talent to be awesome, but in reality is pretty average. Synergy Stats rated him the worst defender on the team and decidedly below the norm for his position; the Thunder weren't any better or worse with him on the court defensively, and opposing point guards had a 15.7 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com. Westbrook is actually too aggressive for his own good at this end, often running himself out of position and overgambling, offsetting his advantages in size, quickness and athleticism.
THABO SEFOLOSHA, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.75.82.310.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Strong wing defender with good size and lateral movement. Very good rebounder.+ Good handle for size but has poor offensive instincts and makes terrible decisions.+ Effective finisher in open court but a mediocre outside shooter.
AnalysisStatistically Sefolosha's season looked about the same, but the one encouraging sign was his 43.7 percent mark on 3-pointers. He took so few that it might be a fluke, but his ability to make corner 3s is the key variable in whether he can stay on the floor most of the game. Oklahoma City frequently turned to Derek Fisher or Daequan Cook last season because Sefolosha couldn't adequately space the floor, with his 16-of-49 shooting from 3 in the playoffs a discouraging harbinger for this season.
The other problem for Sefolosha is that a catch-and-shoot guy can't be throwing it all over the gym like this. He took nearly half his shots from beyond the arc and yet had the worst turnover ratio of any shooting guard; that's completely unacceptable. He also had the lowest usage rate at his position -- again, it's nice that he made the shoots he took, but he has to make himself more of a threat.
Otherwise, he fills his role to a tee. Defensively, he's a not-quite-elite caliber player who ranked ninth at his position in blocks, 10th in defensive rebound rate and 11th in steals. He fouls too much, but his combination of size, agility and toughness makes him one of the better wing defenders in the game.
KEVIN DURANT, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER29.18.23.726.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Tall, long-armed scoring prodigy with unblockable release. Deadly in transition.+ Great foul shooter. Lacks strength. Struggles to get open against physical D.+ Good handle and improved passer. Length an asset on defense and boards.
AnalysisDurant led the league in scoring again, and did it with a 61.0 true shooting percentage. That's just ridiculous. It's one thing to be a high-volume scorer, or to be a high-efficiency scorer. Being both at the same time? That's special. Durant didn't draw fouls at quite the prodigious rate of previous seasons, but he shot the ball better. His 3-point shot, which had been quite average, improved to 38.7 percent, and he shot an incredible 46.4 percent on long 2s.
Of course, his length and speed also make him unstoppable going to the basket; Durant hit 72.2 percent of his shots at the rim. He found more teammates too, boosting his assist ratio to the middle of the small forward pack. In particular, he has become adept at finding his big men when he's doubled coming off a pindown.
Unfortunately this came at a huge cost in turnovers, and Durant's ranking of 64th in pure point rating -- out of 67 small forwards -- was unacceptable for a player of this caliber. (Not to mention the difference-maker between Durant and a certain other small forward who ranked third in this category).
Defensively, Durant is getting better but he's still a pretty neutral player at this end. Synergy Stats graded him fairly well but the Thunder gave up more points per possession when he was on the court. Partly that was because he played more as a smallball 4, which isn't a stretch for him height-wise but forces him into some tough physical battles.
His best asset at this end is on the defensive boards, where he ranked first among all small forward with a 20.4 defensive rebound rate. He's also an excellent shot-blocker and rarely fouls; he's just not great laterally and struggles physically.
SERGE IBAKA, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.411.30.719.5(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Athletic, long-armed, shot-blocking ace still learning fundamentals.+ Overrated defender who struggles against floor-spacers. Good rebounder.+ Very good midrange shooter. No post game and poor offensive instincts.
AnalysisThere's a lot more to defense than blocking shots, people. Ibaka finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting based on his phenomenal shot-blocking total, but the Finals really underscored how far he has to go to be an elite defender overall. Ibaka's shot-blocking skill is second to none -- his 5.38 blocks per 40 minutes led the league comfortably (see chart) -- but he still struggles mightily against face-up 4s and in the finer elements of help defense.
Most blocks per 40 minutes, 2011-12Player Team Bk/40Serga Ibaka OKC 5.38Larry Sanders Mil 4.73Greg Stiemsma Bos 4.44JaVale McGee Was/Den 3.44Brandan Wright Dal 3.19Min. 500 minutesOverall, then, he was merely decent defensively. The Thunder were better with him on the court but not dramatically so (2.8 points per 100 possessions), while Synergy Stats rated him in the middle of the pack. The Thunder didn't act like he was a vital defensive cog, either, often opting to keep Kendrick Perkins or Nick Collison on the court instead of him.
Offensively, Ibaka is an underrated shooter -- proving it when he went 12-for-12 in Game 4 of the conference finals against San Antonio. Ibaka shot 46.5 percent on jumpers from 16-23 feet, according to Hoopdata.com, stellar work that indicates he's still underutilized in the Thunder's pick-and-pop game; he also shot 69.8 percent at the rim. Unfortunately he can't create any of these shots himself, as he has poor offensive instincts and no post game.
KENDRICK PERKINS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.510.41.59.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Tough-as-nails post defender who likes physical play. Very strong.+ Plodding low-post game. Lacks elevation and takes forever to gather and go up.+ Sets bone-jarring screens but prone to offensive fouls. Can make short jumpers.
Analysis
The thought in Oklahoma City was that Perkins would recover from his knee injury and be a much better player in 2011-12. He wasn't, and instead left the Thunder in a bizarre situation where they basically pretended he was still good, even when it was killing them in the Finals.
We should note that Perkins is not without value. He's the Thunder's best post defender and a good help defender too; Synergy Stats rated him as the team's best defender and among the league's better centers, while the Thunder defended better with him on the court.
Unfortunately, that value does not come from chasing Shane Battier around the 3-point line. Additionally, Perkins takes away so much on offense that it often more than negates his defense. He had the NBA's second-worst turnover ratio for a second straight season (see chart), plus he shot only 48.9 percent from the floor.
Worst turnover ratio, 2011-12Player Team TO RateReggie Evans LAC 26.8Kendrick Perkins OKC 23.3Omer Asik Chi 22.6Ryan Hollins Cle/Bos 21.7Aaron Gray Tor 19.6Min. 500 minutesPerkins' 7.5 points per 48 minutes was among the worst figures in basketball, and despite the Thunder's glowing raves about his screening, he still killed them offensively: the team scored 8.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. One particularly maddening trend was their tendency to being halves with static post-up plays for him to "get him involved," as though involving him was in any way desirable.
All this sets up a very interesting 2012-13. Perkins has real value against teams like the Lakers, but against most opponents the Thunder are better off with other frontcourt arrangements. If his play doesn't improve, one wonders if and when they'll address reducing his role.
JAMES HARDEN, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.95.24.620.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Skilled left-hander who excels at pick-and-roll game. Prodigious drawer of fouls.+ Left-dominant. Sees court well but turnover-prone. Good set shooter from 3.+ Middling wing defender who rebounds well. Good hands, has cut foul rate.
AnalysisThe second coming of Manu Ginobili, Harden technically plays shooting guard but is really a huge pick-and-roll point guard. His forays to the rim off the bounce are simply deadly, as he has a tight, low handle, exquisite passing skills, and an almost supernatural sense for how to draw fouls. Harden's 0.59 free throw attempts per field goal attempts was the best of any non-center, with his 84.6 percent mark from the line the cherry on top.
Additionally, Harden was a fantastic finisher when he wasn't fouled, particularly going left. Harden had the best shooting percentage at the rim of any guard, converting an amazing 70.4 percent of his shots in the basket area. Again, this was in addition to all the fouls he drew. Virtually the only chance of stopping him was to force a turnover first -- he was in the bottom quarter of guards in turnover ratio and will give it away trying to split pick-and-rolls.
Top shooting percentage at the rim, guardsPlayer Team Pct.James Harden OKC 70.4Gerald Henderson Cha 68.4Arron Afflalo Den 68.0Marcus Thornton Sac 67.5Kobe Bryant LAL 66.2Min. 150 attemptsMeanwhile, his spot-up game has grown more deadly too: Harden shot 39.0 percent on 3s and took nearly half his attempts from out there. In a related story, he's become much more comfortable playing off the ball with Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant doing the ballhandling. Overall, his 66.0 true shooting percentage sits firmly in you've-gotta-be-kidding-me territory; naturally, the only perimeter player to top it was Ginobili, by eight-tenths of a point (see Ginobili comment). Harden also ranked fourth in the league in secondary percentage (see Chauncey Billups coment).
The next step is upgrading his defense, which remains a vulnerability. Harden has cut his foul rate but it remains above average for a shooting guard, and he needs to defend star wing players to start with Durant and Westbrook. As it is he's the game's best sixth man and an All-Star talent, but he can still get better.
NICK COLLISON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.27.62.110.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Heady big who excels at defending pick-and-rolls and taking charges. + Not as strong in 1-on-1 defense. B-athlete but elevates quickly. Fouls often.+ Decent midrange shooter but rarely shoots. Good offensive rebounder.
AnalysisCollison was once again a plus-minus god, with the Thunder outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, but this time it was on offense where he made an impact. Individually, his statistical profile didn't change much, as his 59.7 percent shooting topped all power forwards but he rarely shot, averaging a meek 8.7 points per 40 minutes.
Collison was once again a pest on the offensive glass, ranking 13th out of 70 power forwards in offensive rebound rate with the help of numerous tap-outs, and it's notable that he shot 52.5% on longs 2s -- a shot he doesn't take unless wide open, alas, so he only had 43 attempts. However, he was a non-factor on the defensive glass, as only two power forwards fared worse.
Defensively, both Synergy Stats and his counterpart data on 82games.com seemed to indicate he slipped last season, but that partly may be a result of fewer minutes at center -- his mobility is more challenged at the 4 and he doesn't line up against quite as many pick-and-rolls from that spot. Subjectively, his elevation seemed as strong as ever, so at 31 he stills seems primed for a couple more effective seasons.
ERIC MAYNOR, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Steady point guard with pass-first mindset. Good handle but B-grade athlete.+ Average outside shot, and struggles to get to rim. Returning from knee injury.+ Decent position defender. Has thin frame but moves well and competes.
AnalysisMaynor tore his ACL after nine games and missed the rest of the season. He wasn't playing very well at the time, but given the nine-game sample we shouldn't take that too seriously.
However, in the big picture his profile is much more of somebody who is just a decent backup than a guy who can take over a starting spot someplace else. He should bounce back fine from the knee injury since his game isn't predicated on athleticism, and stabilize a spot that was a liability a season ago.
DAEQUAN COOK, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.63.75.19.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Jump-shooting wing with strong catch-and-shoot game. Elevates well on jumper.+ Solid athlete, but a weak ball handler. Virtually never goes to the basket.+ Solid, unspectacular defender but a bit undersized for the 3. Not a rebounder.
AnalysisCook got the same shots as a year earlier, he just didn't make them -- leaving a worrying question of whether 2010-11 was an outlier and this was his real talent level. His 34.6 percent mark on 3-pointers was unacceptable for a long-range specialist, and dragged his career mark down to 36.5 percent.
Cook took more than three-quarters of his shots from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest rate in the league (see Jason Kidd comment), and scarcely did anything else: He was first in turnover ratio and last in assist ratio at his position, a perfect synopsis of his mission as a catch-and-shoot specialist. His turnover ratio, in fact, was the league's second-lowest (see Matt Bonner comment). Along the same vein, he had one of the league's lowest free throw rates, earning just 22 all season.
Unusually for a shooter, Cook may have as much value on defense as on offense. His Synergy Stats grades were solid and the Thunder gave up fewer points per possession with him on the court, albeit working mostly against opponents' subs.
All of which is fine, but the ball has to go in. Cook shot 42.2 percent on 3s in 2010-11, and if he does that he has value. Making barely a third of them, however, he has none.
REGGIE JACKSON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.14.15.610.9(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Athletic point guard who plays out of control. Needs to calm down.+ Good court vision but instincts are as scorer. Quick and has good size.+ Disappointing shooter as rookie. Must improve finishing and shot selection.
AnalysisJackson was given a chance to claim the backup point guard job after Eric Maynor's injury but wiped out, playing hyper and flinging up bricks. He finished with an abysmal 40.8 true shooting percentage, very nearly the league's worst, and the breakdown showed he was bad everywhere: 21.0 percent on 3s, 44.4 percent at the rim, and 25.2 percent on 2s beyond ten feet.
Jackson should shoot better, as he had good numbers in college and his form isn't broken. It's his decision-making that's the bigger worry. He looked nothing like a point guard while running the offense, over-penetrating and dribbling himself into bad spots, although he did show some knack for passing.
Defensively he shaped up better. Jackson had a strong steals rate, rebounded well, and has the size and quickness to defend most 1s. He took his usual rookie lumps, but his metrics all indicate the Thunder didn't suffer much with him on the court at that end; it was his offense that killed them.
COLE ALDRICH, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Long big man who can rebound and block shots.+ Can finish at rim but has few other offensive skills.+ Needs more game experience and better defensive reactions.
AnalysisAldrich's second season was much more promising than his first, as he got into 26 games and made decent contributions in his limited minutes. He's still limited offensively but brought more energy to the proceedings at both ends and, more importantly, drastically reduced the mistake plays that held him back as a rookie. He has a good chance of moving into the back end of the rotation this season, which would give him a chance to develop further.
PERRY JONES, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Tall combo forward who can run, jump and score. Good shooter for size.+ Athleticism doesn't impact games. Tends to disappear. Questionable motor.
AnalysisJones is 6-11 and athletic, and has the skills to play the perimeter, so he should have been a dominant college player. He wasn't, and that's the mystery. He had solid shooting numbers for a player of this size and should only get better, but in other areas he was hard to figure out. How could a player like this block shots so rarely, have such poor rebound numbers, and disappear so readily? How did he only shoot 52 percent on 2s and avoid drawing fouls?
His college stats said he was a second-rounder, but Oklahoma City took a gamble on his potential late in the first. At his size, his NBA future is almost certainly at the 4, and he may become an extremely effective stretch 4 in time. If it works out he fits a glaring need for the Thunder, but he needs to play with much more intensity than he showed in college.
LAZAR HAYWOOD, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Tough, aggressive wing but fouls like crazy. Good rebounder for size. + Poor outside shooter. Cannot elevate or finish. Weak ball skills.+ Strong and competes on defense, but lateral quickness iffy.
AnalysisThe Thunder picked up Hayward with their last wisp of cap space thinking he might be able to play tough defense and hit corner 3s. The evidence for the former is stronger than the latter. While he's tough and aggressive he hasn't shown he can be any kind of offensive contributor, and when he played in Minnesota his defense was fairly wanting, too.
Hayward did play quite well in three D-League games for Tulsa, but he also shot 13-for-38 for the parent club and fouled with wild abandon (18 personals in 141 minutes for the Thunder, 15 in 103 minutes in the D-League).
HASHEEM THABEET, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season
Scouting report+ Long, tall, slender center with knack for shot-blocking.+ Lacks strength. Foul prone. Has poor basketball instincts at both ends.+ Can make short-range jumpers but has no post game whatsoever.
AnalysisBackhanded compliment time: Thabeet got into 20 games with Houston and Portland and played more competently than he'd done the previous season in Memphis. He scored enough to be somewhat useful should his defense come around, and put up very solid rebounding totals.
That said, his shot-blocking has yet to translate into genuine defensive value because he's so bad in other respects. It was a small sample, but both Houston and Portland were outscored by more than 10 points per 100 possessions with Thabeet on the court, and opposing centers had player efficiency ratings approaching 20. Synergy Stats rated him as nearly the worst defensive player in the league. For a player whose theoretical value lies almost entirely at this end of the floor, that's a huge problem, but the Thunder will take a low-dollar risk at seeing if he can turn it around.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 20 September 2012 17:04 (thirteen years ago)
MARIO CHALMERS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.13.75.112.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Spot-up shooting point guard who rarely penetrates. Good 3-point shooter.+ Subpar ballhandler prone to wild turnovers. Professionalism a concern.+ Good size for guard and great hands, but lacks great quickness. Foul prone.
AnalysisChalmers finally became the player Miami needed him to be last season, taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc and nailing 38.8 percent to post the sixth-best true shooting percentage among point guards. That's what the Heat required -- a low-usage, high-efficiency sniper -- and he built on it by also having one of the best 2-point shooting marks (51.6 percent) at his position.
Chalmers is still nobody's idea of a point guard, inexplicably having one of the worst turnover rates at his position despite being asked to do very little ball-handling and creating, but on this team his skill set fits as long as he's making jumpers. He's a solid candidate to regress, unfortunately, as he'd never shot this well before.
Defensively, Chalmers has always had decent size and excellent hands (11th at his position in steals per minute), but last season was the first where you could say he was a plus overall. The Heat gave up 3.8 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, opposing point guards had a 14.6 PER against him according to 82games.com, and Synergy placed him in the top half of point guards. Fast point guards still give him fits, but overall he did solid work.
DWYANE WADE, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER25.86.05.424.8(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Electrifying wing with blinding quickness, long arms and quick leaping ability.+ Great at splitting pick-and-rolls. Poor shooter but draws heaps of fouls with fakes.+ Ball-hawking defender but gambles too much. Amazing shot-blocker for his size.
AnalysisWade is 6-foot-4, but he doesn't play anything like his size. Look just at his stats and you'd think he was a power forward -- Wade's rates of blocked shots, free throws and shots in the basket area seems much more in line with that position than his own, while he also punches far above his weight as a rebounder.
In particular, Wade's rate of 1.51 blocks per 40 minutes was simply amazing -- every other player with that high a rate was at least three inches taller. Meanwhile, he combined those skills with the quickness of a point guard, ranking fifth at his position in steals per minute and 15th in pure point rating. Alas, the other area where he acted like a big man was in transition defense, where Wade often lumbered back slowly.
Offensively, Wade pretty much ditched the 3-pointer and focused on his midrange game last season, and the change helped: He hit 42.3 percent of his long 2s. Unfortunately his true shooting percentage still fell because he drew dramatically fewer fouls than a year earlier. Wade's free-throw rate was still among the best in the game, but at 30 years old this may be the first sign that he's starting to lose some of his burst.
Not that he's lost much: He still led all shooting guards in PER and ranked third overall. But he needed his knee drained to get through the season and had surgery on it afterward, and the Heat kept him to 49 games and 33 minutes per contest. His physical frailty may be one of the bigger obstacles to the Heat repeating.
LeBRON JAMES, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER28.48.37.329.7(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Bruising wing with a point guard's handle and a center's body. Deadly at rim.+ Solid outside shooter who has added left-block post game. Can pass and create.+ Outstanding rebounder. Excellent defensive player who can guard 1 through 5.
AnalysisLeBron James was only 18th among small forwards in offensive rebound rate, barely placing him in the top third at his position. He really needs to work on that.
Otherwise:
• He led the league in PER, with one of the highest marks of all time. • He was first among SFs in shooting percentage, 2-point shooting percentage, and usage rate. • He was second at his position in points per minute, TS%, and defensive rebound rate. • He was third in pure point rating, free-throw rate, and overall rebound rate. • He had the fourth-lowest foul rate among SFs, and yet was fifth in steals per minute.
James nearly led the NBA in shooting percentage at the rim (see chart), at a phenomenal 75.4 percent, and took more shots there than all but four players. He added a post game, improved his floater, and made his midrange jumpers. As a result he was fourth in the league in shooting from 3-to-15 feet.
Top shooting percentage at the rim, 2011-12Player Team FG%Tyson Chandler NY 75.8LeBron James Mia 75.4Andre Iguodala Phi 75.2Dwight Howard Orl 74.4Blake Griffin LAC 73.7Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comWant more? He shot 3-pointers better than the league average for the first time in his career and set career highs in true shooting percentage, rebound rate, and shooting percentage. He won MVP of the Finals and hit the biggest shot of the season while fighting off leg cramps; before that, in a seven-game conference finals against the league's best defensive team, he averaged 33.6 points on 52.7 percent shooting.
James defended all five positions, many times in the same game, and defended all of them well. Opposing small forwards had just a 10.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com
About the only thing I could genuinely criticize is his 77.1 free-throw percentage, which was slightly below the average for small forwards. Otherwise he had a decent year.
SHANE BATTIER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.44.42.39.4(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Heady defender who takes advantage of length and rarely makes mistakes.+ Good corner 3-point shooter but has a slow, low release. Good at post entry.+ Can't create at all but can make hooks from post. Has the size to play 4 in stretches.
AnalysisBattier was great in the Finals, but what made that so surprising was his fairly abysmal regular season. He shot just 38.7 percent, rebounded like a guard, and scored an anemic 8.3 points per 40 minutes.
Most of his shots were 3s, but he made just 33.9 percent from deep and hardly ever got to the cup, earning only 37 free-throw attempts the entire season. As a result, his true shooting percentage was below the league average -- not a great result for a low-usage floor-spacer. Battier's only positive offensive contributions were his passing and avoidance of turnovers; he finished eighth among small forwards in pure point rating.
Defensively, Battier had more zip, but again his regular season paled next to his postseason. He ranked among the top dozen small forwards in both blocks and steals, but the Heat defended slightly better with him off the court -- the first time in eons we've been able to say that about Battier -- and Synergy rated him in the middle of the pack among small forwards.
And while Battier hurt the Thunder in the Finals, up 'til that point his playoffs had been pretty humdrum too. Through the first three rounds, his shooting and scoring rates were even worse than in the regular season.
Even at that production level, Battier has his uses as a multi-position defender and quasi-floor spacer. But the Heat should be wary of further slippage from the 33-year-old and can't overreact to a particularly well-timed five-game stretch of quality.
CHRIS BOSH, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.99.42.118.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Lanky, left-handed, high-scoring forward who can shoot, drive and finish.+ Excels at taking opposing bigs off dribble to draw fouls. Has 3-point range.+ Mobile defender who has vastly improved. Lacks strength. Rarely fouls.
AnalysisBosh's scoring and rebounding numbers took a hit when he came to Miami, with the rebounding drop in particular proving confounding. But one area where he hasn't received enough credit is his defense. Bosh basically switched to being a full-time 5 in the playoffs despite his lack of muscle and handled the job admirably. Meanwhile, he was a defensive force all season because of his improved focus combined with tremendous mobility for his size.
For the year Bosh rated among the top 10 defensive bigs in the league, according to Synergy. Opposing centers had only a 12.4 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Heat gave up 1.3 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. This is the Bosh we didn't see in Toronto, although to be fair he had a lot less help up there.
Offensively, Bosh was vitally important for Miami as well, providing the spacing and scoring threat that Miami's other bigs couldn't. Bosh shot 66.5 percent in the basket area with a high free-throw rate, but just as potent was his 42.3 percent mark on jumpers beyond 10 feet. Bosh even hit 10 3-pointers, and then added a few more to beat Boston in Game 7 of the conference finals.
The other notable facet of Bosh's game is how rarely he fouls. Only four power forwards were whistled less than his 2.55 personals per 40 minutes, despite the fact he played center nearly as often as the 4. As a result, he's able to stay on the court -- and impact the game -- for much longer stretches than most bigs.
RAY ALLEN, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.73.72.913.2(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ All-time great outside shooter who excels at moving off screens for jumpers.+ Average athlete but has good handle for his size. Subpar defender but competes.+ Money foul shooter. Rarely creates for self. Outstanding conditioning.
AnalysisThe shift to Miami may come at a perfect time for Allen. Last season he did the same things he's always done, he just did them less often -- his usage rate was a career low and he averaged just 16.7 points per 40 minutes as a result. But unlike Boston, the Heat don't need Allen to create shots, just to knock down the wide-open ones that James and Wade create for him.
The evidence he can do that is overwhelming. Last season was his fourth straight with a true shooting percentage in the 60s, placing him fourth among shooting guards in 2011-12. Nearly half his shots were 3s and he nailed 45.3 percent. For good measure he hit 91.5 percent from the line, although his free throw rate was down from in previous seasons.
Allen only made 37.7 percent of his long 2s -- a shot he may rarely take this season -- and had just 53 buckets at the rim the entire season, but his ball-handling numbers remained solid and his rebound rate was passable too.
Defensively, Allen competes but he's tailed off. Boston allowed 5.2 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and while that isn't entirely connected just to him, the uptick when Avery Bradley replaced him was immediately noticeable. Having LeBron and Wade around will spare him the tougher defensive matchups, however, and he's a solid team defender.
UDONIS HASLEM, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.011.71.011.1(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Tough, smart, pick-and-pop power forward whose jump shot abandoned him.+ Not a great athlete but a solid, low-mistake defender. Rarely creates own shot.+ Limited post game. Undersized 4 but strong, physical. Good rebounder for size.
AnalysisHaslem's pick-and-pop game lost its pop last season. He has normally feasted on midrange jump shots, but last season he converted only 35.5 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, a development that left him without much of a role offensively. Haslem had the eighth-worst true shooting percentage at his position and an unusually high turnover rate for a catch-and-shoot player, leaving him both a low-usage and a low-efficiency proposition.
On the other hand, one thing Haslem did well was rebound. He finished seventh among power forwards in rebound rate, including third on the defensive glass, and that's mostly an effort thing for the undersized Haslem.
Haslem also did a lot of dirty work in the frontcourt, even moving to center at times and holding his own at 6-8. I've felt his D has been overrated in the past, but last season was pure quality -- Synergy gave him the best rating on the Heat and the sixth-best in the entire league, while the Heat gave up 2.2 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court.
Moreover, there's a good chance his shooting malaise will recover. Short-term blips in long-range shooting percentages are common, and Haslem still shot 81.4 percent from the line, so clearly the stroke is still there. He's probably not a starter anymore, but if he goes back to making 15-footers he'll be a plus off the bench.
MIKE MILLER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.77.22.510.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Big wing with textbook shooting form. Excellent, underrated rebounder.+ Reluctant shooter who rarely attacks and forces passes. Never draws fouls.+ Solid defender against most 3s thanks to size, but too slow to defend 2s.
AnalysisDuring the regular season and playoffs, Miller had scored more than 20 points in game just once in his first 120 games with the Miami Heat. In the 121st game, however, he scored 23 points in 23 minutes, making 7 of 8 3-pointers, helping the Heat clinch the NBA title in one of the great performances in NBA playoff annals.
Miller's outlier was both extreme and extremely well-timed, but shouldn't distract from the big-picture of his disappointing campaign. He played only 39 games, as his body was clearly breaking down, and had the rather amazing statistic of only taking five free throw attempts the entire season.
Yes, five. Yes, all season. And he didn't even earn one of them he got to shoot a technical foul shot against New Orleans.
As the chart shows, Miller was in a league of his own as far as free throw infrequency goes. What the chart doesn't show is that Miller didn't have just the lowest mark of any player in 2011-12; he had the lowest mark in the history of the NBA. The previous record-holder, Brad Lohaus in 1995-96, had five free throw attempts in 175 field goal attempts, for a rate of 0.03.
Fewest free throw attempts per field goal attempt, 2011-12Player Team FTA/FGAMike Miller Mia 0.02Troy Murphy LAL 0.05Matt Bonner SA 0.06Sasha Pavlovic Bos 0.06Mike Bibby NY 0.06Min. 500 minutesOtherwise, Miller was deadly on 3s (45.3 percent) but again a reluctant participant -- only three small forwards had a lower usage rate. He filled out the box score, ranking third in rebound rate, but he so rarely put his deadly shot into action that he was still a net negative offensively. That's party of what made his outburst in the Finals so shocking -- convincing him to shoot the rock was half the battle.
RASHARD LEWIS, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.46.01.510.3(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Tall combo forward with deadly corner 3 and effective left-block post game.+ Subpar ball handler who has lost athleticism. Poor rebounder and finisher.+ Solid team defender but struggles one-on-one against post-up 4s.
AnalysisLewis looked utterly uninterested in Washington, and that fact was illustrated in his play. An alleged floor-spacer who shoots 16-of-68 on 3s is a bit of a problem, and that was one reason Lewis's PER dipped into single digits. More encouragingly, the Wizards tried to indulge his left-block post game and that proved effective at times.
Still, this was a brutal campaign any way you slice it. He was below the league median for small forwards in every single metric except rebound rate (by a whisker) and free throw percentage. Washington played substantially better defense with him off the floor; in fact, we should all make a pact that he never tries to guard the wing again. Perhaps worst was that he only shot 44.8 percent on 2s, with low rates of free throws and assists -- in other words, even setting aside the 3-point disaster, he still wasn't any good.
At 32 it's not clear what he has left, but he'll have more motivation in Miami than he did in Washington (trust me, he can't have less), and he may be able to make a living shooting standstill corner 3s.
JOEL ANTHONY, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER5.27.00.38.4(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Undersized, energetic center with excellent mobility and shot-blocking skill.+ Brutal offensive player. Can't shoot, has terrible hands and no instincts.+ Poor rebounder despite athleticism, especially on defense. Solid foul shooter.
AnalysisThe Canadian southpaw made enough dunks and layups to be something less than a total liability offensively last season. His league-worst usage rate from 2011-12 jumped up to merely the third-worst, and his true shooting percentage ranked eighth-best among centers -- although it still produced only 6.5 points per 40 minutes. Hey, baby steps.
Anthony's secret weakness is that he's also a terrible rebounder, posting the fourth-worst rebound rate among centers. He has trouble catching the ball and will take himself out of position going for blocks; in fact he's even worse on the defensive glass than offensively.
However, defense is where his value lies. Anthony isn't terribly physical, but he's a mobile pick-and-roll defender who can block shots, so overall he's a plus at this end. Unfortunately, it doesn't offset his problems on offense, and basically renders him a situational player who has seen far too much daylight over the past two seasons.
NORRIS COLE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.32.84.38.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Quick point guard who struggles to make shots. Must improve 3-point game.+ Disappointed as a passer and ballhandler. Iffy court vision, too many turnovers.+ Solid defender, especially against quick guards, but fouled far too often.
AnalysisWe're sure this guy was a point guard in college? Cole looked at times like a really short power forward, committing turnovers in bunches while virtually never locating open teammates. His Assist Rate was the fourth worst among point guards and his pure point rating the second worst, a distressing -1.30.
This may have resulted partly from trying to do too much; Cole had the Heat's fourth-highest usage rate and nearly caught Chris Bosh for third. Clearly that shouldn't have been the case, as too often Cole's attempts to create produced wild dribbling that ended with him trapped in an unwieldy spot.
Cole only hit 34.0 percent on 3s in his last two college seasons and this looms as his other big weakness as a pro -- his rookie campaign finished at 27.6 percent. He simply has to shoot better to hold down a gig, because he's not going to score at the rim enough to make a living.
Defensively, Cole redeemed himself enough to earn playoff minutes against quick guards. The Heat defended much better with him off the court, but Synergy gave him solid grades and opposing point guards had only a 12.5 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
His biggest problem on defense was all the fouling; only eight point guards were whistled more per minute even though he had just an average rate of steals. Additionally, Cole was fairly worthless on the glass, sporting the fifth-worst defensive rebound rate in the league.
JAMES JONES, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.43.11.39.4(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Shooting SF who has replaced cobwebs as item most commonly seen in corners.+ Never, ever, ever attacks the basket. Rarely even dribbles. Low-turnover player.+ Poor athlete, but has good size for 3 and plays passable defense. Bad rebounder.
AnalysisJones has played 2,217 minutes over the past two seasons and taken one shot in the basket area.
One.
Last season he didn't take any, and didn't make a shot inside 10 feet the entire season. Meanwhile, more than three-quarters of his tries came from beyond the 3-point line. Jones made 40.4 percent of them, too, producing one of the best true shooting percentages at his position, and once again did it with one of the lowest turnover rates in all of basketball. He also drew a surprising number of fouls for a pure catch-and-shoot guy who never penetrated.
But Jones still wasn't a very valuable player because of all his other limitations. For starters he can't create his own shot at all, not even a little bit. Defensively, his lack of mobility makes him something of a liability. While he has good size and competes, he can't play the trapping, attacking style Miami prefers. He's also useless on the glass, sporting the league's worst rebound rate among small forwards at an embarrassing 4.4 -- this was a worse mark than that of all but nine of the league's point guards.
In sum, he's a fringe rotation player if he's making 3s and worthless if he's not. Once Miami found alternate solutions to its floor-spacing conundrums in the playoffs, it was a pretty easy call to leave him on the pine.
DEXTER PITTMAN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season )
Scouting report+ Powerful physical force around basket with wide body. Conditioning a concern.+ Short for a center but has long arms. Good hands. Poor foul shooter.+ Can defend post but lacks mobility. Staggeringly foul-prone.
AnalysisPittman's most notable achievement was his indefensible cheap shot on Indiana's Lance Stephenson in the playoffs, but he also got into 35 regular-season games and wasn't half bad. An old-school center in a new-school league, Pittman can establish deep post position and make short shots in the paint, leading to a solid 14.1 points per 40 minutes average. He also rebounded at a solid clip for a center.
Unfortunately, he still doesn't do a whole lot else. Defensively he's only useful against another big center, where he can bang in the paint and won't have to move. Otherwise, he picks up fouls at such an alarming rate that it's difficult to keep him on the court -- nearly one foul every four minutes last season. He doesn't block shots either, and he's a liability in transition and pick-and-roll defense. Thus, his utility is likely to remain quite limited, until or unless he improves his conditioning to the point where he doesn't foul on nearly every play.
JOSH HARRELLSON, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.210.00.813.6(Stats are per 40 minutes)
Scouting report+ Wide-body who crashes boards at both ends. Has 3-point range.+ Undersized for a 5 and on the heavy side. Lacks lateral quickness and leaping ability.+ Lacks post game and can't create offense. Pure pick-and-pop guy.
AnalysisHarrellson is a "4.5" who isn't quite tall or athletic enough to play center but doesn't move well enough to play the 4. That wasn't a death knell for him careerwise, however, because of his surprising emergence as a 3-point threat during his rookie season -- a skill he rarely displayed at Kentucky. Harrellson shot 33.9 percent on 3s, which isn't great, but it gave him an offensive function and came at virtually zero cost in turnovers. No center took a higher proportion of his shots from behind the arc than Mr. Jorts.
Harrellson's other skill is his rebounding; although he can't jump, his rebound rate was solid for a center. That's true even at the offensive end, a surprise given how often he was 25 feet from the rim.
Harrellson had strong defensive plus/minus numbers last season in limited action, but let's not take this too far. He can't protect the rim at all; his value is that he's willing to bang and he's usually in the right place. However, his skill set seems a strong fit for a team like Miami, where he can hang out on the perimeter and wait for others to set him up.
This is hero's work-- thanks, J0rdan.
― ❀ the cult of ➥upside➥wingspan➥personal growth gurus➥FA charlatans (CompuPost), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:24 (thirteen years ago)
Warriors if you would please.
― Nickelback of folk (Spottie_Ottie_Dope), Thursday, 20 September 2012 19:58 (thirteen years ago)
these profiles have what is known as a "phased rollout" so you'll need to wait until the 3rd of october for those guys
― call all destroyer, Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:03 (thirteen years ago)
Ha, yeah probably only ahead of Charlotte.
― Nickelback of folk (Spottie_Ottie_Dope), Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:05 (thirteen years ago)
Just saw this will reference all season thx j0rdan!
― Clay, Thursday, 20 September 2012 20:22 (thirteen years ago)
http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/nba/lrg/trans/mem.gif
MIKE CONLEY, PG
+ Small, fast guard with great hands. Excels at forcing turnovers off the ball.+ Struggles to contain big guards one-on-one. Easily posted up. Poor rebounder.+ Solid floor general and shooter. Has improved right hand, especially with floater.
Conley continued his steady progress in his fifth season, showcasing a vastly improved right hand and making several running floaters with it on forays to the rim. Conley shot 60.3 percent in the basket area, a pretty amazing figure for a small guard, and made a solid 37 percent of his 3s, but in between he still needs to improve. The floaters were a plus, but he made only 36.9 percent of his 2s outside 10 feet.
Quietly, he's also steadily improved as a floor general and had the league's eighth-best pure point rating last season. Between that and the lack of a decent backup, Memphis' offense went off the rails anytime he checked out of a game last season.
However, he still is more of a caretaker point guard in some ways. He has an extremely low usage rate for a key starter and often just spots up on the weak side while the Grizzlies' post weapons go to work. He also needs to shoot more 3s, again having a very low 3-point attempt rate for a good outside shooter. As a result, his true shooting percentage was only average.
TONY ALLEN, SG
+ In-your-face defensive ace. Will take risks going for steals and will pick up fouls.+ Excellent quickness, but subpar ball handler with high, erratic bounce.+ Poor outside shooter and prone to missing layups. Will make mental errors.
Allen's offensive numbers predictably declined after a Fluke Rule season in 2011-12, but defensively he was just as terrorizing. Allen led all shooting guards in steals per minute and finished third overall, helping the Griz lead the NBA in forced turnovers. Not surprisingly, Memphis gave up 5.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Allen even cut his foul rate, allowing him to stay on the court more often.
While his offensive output declined, he was more useful than you might think. Yes, it was bothersome that opponents didn't guard him on the perimeter, but Allen scored at a decent clip (14.9 points per 40 minutes), had an above-average TS%, and snuck to the glass so often that he led all shooting guards in offensive rebound rate. He's a terrible shooter -- 32.6 percent outside 10 feet last season, and nearly all those tries were 2s -- and a disastrous ball handler who had the worst pure point rating at his position. Yet he gets enough layups and free throws to offset it.
Allen is also 30 years old and his knees aren't in pristine condition. Given how dependent he is on his quickness, that does make him something of a risk going forward. But he's such a plus defender that he can lose a step and still be very valuable, and he's become a core part of this team's identity.
RUDY GAY, SF
+ Smooth, long wing with high-arcing jump shot. Can shoot over the top of a defense.+ Outstanding transition finisher. Shies from contact and doesn't draw fouls.+ Doesn't see the floor once he starts dribbling. Underachieves defensively.
Gay has All-Star talent, but his jump shot let him down last season and he hasn't picked up his game in other areas. For starters, there's the jumper. Gay's stroke looks wonderful, but it doesn't go in as often as you think. Last season he made only 33.8 percent of his long 2s, and his 31.2 percent mark on 3s dropped his career mark to just 34.7 percent. He can get his shot off against anyone, and there's value in that, but there's not a lot of evidence that he's an above-average shooter.
What does have value is when he takes shots near the basket. Gay shot 64 percent at the rim and had a high foul rate for a jump shooter; in particular, if he gets a step going right, he can throw down some vicious dunks. He also ranked in the top quarter of small forwards in both rebounds and blocks. In a related story, he played a lot of small-ball 4 and at 6-foot-9 may continue doing so going forward.
However, he regressed in other areas. Gay is guilty of dribble blindness, and while he's improved from a few years ago, he still ranked among the bottom 10 small forwards in pure point rating. Defensively, he's had a hard time converting elite athleticism into decent results. His length nets him a lot of blocks and steals, but the Grizzlies gave up 6.0 more points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
ZACH RANDOLPH, PF
+ Left-handed widebody with great hands and a soft, high-arcing midrange jumper.+ Likes to face up from the right block for a jumper or quick drive. Great rebounder.+ Middling athlete who struggles on defense. Much-improved passer from the block.
Randolph hurt his knee early in the season and tried to play his way back into shape late, but never quite returned to the Z-Bo who dominated in 2010-11. The Grizzlies would like to treat his campaign as an outlier, but at 31 the fear lingers that he's entering his decline phase. If so, the three years and $50 million left on his contract will be rather unpleasant to swallow.
As for 2011-12, Randolph had superficially solid defensive stats that belied his clear struggles at that end, especially in the playoffs. He also had difficulty regaining his touch and timing, shooting just 29.2 percent from beyond 15 feet and shattering a career low with a 65.9 percent mark at the free throw line.
Randolph's phenomenal rebound numbers from two seasons ago dipped too, though they were still good enough to rank fifth among power forwards. About the only positive from last season is that he continues to improve as a passer, blowing away his career high in assist ratio and actually ranking in the top half of power forwards in both that category and pure point rating.
MARC GASOL, C
+ Widebody center who moves surprisingly well for his size. Great feel for high post.+ Likes to play left block and attack with righty running hook. Unselfish to a fault.+ Excellent rebounder and defender. Not a leaper, but always in right position on D.
The absence of Zach Randolph showcased Gasol's continuing development into a star. He made the All-Star team for the first time and cemented his status as one of the game's best defensive centers. He may not look the part given his floor-bound game, but Gasol is consistently in the right spot, moves well for his size and can body up post players. His Synergy grades were top notch, and the Grizzlies gave up 4.9 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court. Moreover, Gasol did this under an unusually heavy minutes burden for a player of his size -- like his brother in L.A., he doesn't foul and is rarely injured, so he's on the court all the time.
Gasol is a great ball handler in the high post, ranking fifth among centers in pure point rating, and he also upped his foul-drawing game. Between that and a strong 74.8 percent mark from the line, he was eighth among centers in secondary percentage.
That offset a decline in field goal percentage, but shot location may have been the cause. Gasol still shot a stellar 68.9 percent at the rim and an equally strong 41.4 percent from beyond 10 feet -- but he had nearly twice as many shots from the latter distance. The season before his shot mix tilted nearly as strongly in the other direction.
Also notable is that Gasol basically doesn't try for offensive rebounds. Only two centers grabbed them less often. He's usually at the high post and opts to get back on defense rather than charging toward the glass.
JERRYD BAYLESS, PG
+ Shoot-first combo guard with burst and tenacity to attack the rim. Over-reliant on J.+ Average outside shooter and subpar distributor. Intense but struggles defensively.+ A tweener between 1 and 2; slow for a 1 but gets thrashed by post-up 2s. Fouls often.
Bayless missed half the season with various injuries, but when he played, he was quite effective. Alas, most of the difference was a flukish uptick in 3-point shooting to 42.3 percent -- he's a career 35.0 percent shooter and you can expect a return to Earth this season.
Otherwise, Bayless has the quicknesss to get to the rim but took four jumpers for every shot at the basket last season, a less-than-ideal ratio for a player whose jumper still comes and goes. Even last season, he shot only 37.3 percent on long 2s. That, alas, is not an outlier, as he'd made 36.1 percent the previous season.
If Bayless' percentages revert on the 3s, he's still a useful player. He'd had nearly a league-average PER the previous two seasons because he scores at a high rate and draws a lot of fouls on his forays to the rim, and he's a very good foul shooter. Additionally, he's enough of a worker that it's possible he just got better.
However, the bigger concern is how and where to play him. Bayless' matchups need to be managed carefully defensively, which was what constantly impeded his progress in Portland. He's overmatched physically against most 2s, who shredded him for a 21.1 PER, according to 82games.com, but that's his ideal offensive position. The drafting of big point guard Tony Wroten leaves some hope that Memphis can cross-match with those two, but a Bayless-Conley combo may prove more difficult since both are small.
DARRELL ARTHUR, PF
+ Mobile, jump-shooting power forward who excels defending pick-and-rolls.+ Can finish in transition but mostly a pick-and-pop weapon in the half court.+ Missed all of last season with an Achilles injury.
Arthur missed all of last season with a torn right Achilles tendon. The recovery track for players with this injury isn't great -- in general, they return but don't quite achieve their previous level of play. Elton Brand and Christian Laettner are two notable previous examples who played his position.
In Arthur's case, he may have been due for a regression anyway, after a breakout 2010-11 in which he shot unusually well on long 2s. But he's a valuable player regardless because of his pick-and-roll defense and ability to space the floor.
MARREESE SPEIGHTS, PF
+ Jump-shooting big man with a wide frame. Good rebounder, especially offensively.+ Struggles defensively. Effort inconsistent and lacks great length and mobility.+ Gets tunnel vision offensively and will take poor shots.
After a trade to Memphis, Speights started all but six games thanks to Zach Randolph's injury, but on a per-minute basis wasn't as productive as he'd been in Philly. Speights' PER dropped for a third straight season, and his shooting, scoring and true shooting percentages all were career lows while his turnover ratio was a career high.
Subjectively, Speights' troublesome defense seemed to make progress, but that may have been a mirage. His on-court versus off-court comparisons were still awful, and opposing bigs put up solid numbers at his expense, plus he had an extremely low rate of steals and a high rate of fouls. On a positive note, he seemed to be in better shape and a bit tougher, and he's become marginally less pathetic at drawing charges. Also, he rebounds -- Speights was 10th among power forwards in rebound rate.
While he clearly is a work in progress on D, Speights can fill it up. He shot a sizzling 46.6 percent on 2s from 16 feet and beyond, but struggled to convert from closer range. The latter accounted for two-thirds of his shots, and creating them resulted in an unusually high turnover ratio for a catch-and-shoot player. He's certainly not passing the ball once he gets it in any kind of scoring position, which is another reason straight pick-and-pop plays are the best use of his skills.
TONY WROTEN, PG
+ Huge left-handed combo guard with great court vision. Awful shooter.+ Good athlete but plays out of control. Questions about attitude. Dominates ball.
Wroten is one of the draft's most unique talents and he may be a great fit in Memphis with his ability to force turnovers and slash to the basket. He's huge for a point guard, but that's his natural position, as he can see the floor and get to the rim. He's a poor outside shooter, however, and he has a lot of rough edges to his game.
That scared teams off, but he's only 19 and he's potentially a monstrous defender with his size, hands and quickness. He's been compared to Rajon Rondo, both for good and bad, but he's a much bigger version of Rondo and could potentially play as a slashing, ballhandling shooting guard. For now, he solves Memphis' need for a backup point guard and provides an option to play Mike Conley off the ball in stretches.
WAYNE ELLINGTON, G
+ Undersized shooting guard with deep shooting range. Decent athleticism.+ Shoots well off the catch and from midrange, but is an awful finisher in the paint.+ Size a liability on defense but good awareness and solid quickness.
Ellington finally figured out that he can't create shots on his own and has to be a low-usage sniper to survive in this league, but his shot betrayed him last season. He made only 32.4 percent of his 3s, not nearly good enough for a player of this ilk, and stepped inside the line for long 2s far too often for his own good. While he converted 42.7 percent of his tries from 10-23 feet, he needs to be taking more than half his shots beyond the arc to have much of a chance of sticking. Instead, he took more long 2s than 3s. Basically, bad math is killing his career.
Otherwise, it was the usual ugliness on offense. Ellington averaged 10.7 points per 40 minutes, had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position and his 9.32 PER marked his third straight single-digit performance.
He's not afraid to jump into the fray on defense and his results again were respectable at that end -- a 13.8 opponent PER according to 82games.com, above-average grades from Synergy, and a positive on-court versus off-court differential. If he can get the 3-point thing down, he'll have use because of his defensive competence, but at this point, his career is on thin ice.
HAMED HADDADI, C
+ Plodding big man who can impact the game around the basket. Outstanding rebounder.+ Struggles in transition and gets winded quickly. Can't defend outside the paint.+ Prone to turnovers, but makes short shots around the basket and hits his free throws.
Haddadi's career path remains the same -- he looks pretty good on a per-minute basis because the Grizzlies are very good about playing him in situations when he can succeed, and never outside of them. His rebounding numbers for his career are incredible and he does a solid job converting his interior catches into points. His only real offensive negative is a penchant for illegal screens and three-second violations, and that he clogs up the spacing a bit.
Defensively, however, he can only impact the game in a short zone around the basket area, which means he can't be asked to defend mobile bigs, or 3-point shooters, or pick-and-rolls, or teams that run, or & well, you get the point. Stick him in there for five minutes to play the middle in a zone, or guard somebody like Joel Anthony, and he'll be fine. Beyond that, his limitations become glaringly apparent. And after five minutes, he'll be wheezing.
Nonetheless, every team could use a big guy such as this to gum up the works against certain opponents, and he adds offensive punch, too. It's tough to pencil him in as a rotation player because his limitations will be exposed with regularity, but he's an extremely useful third center.
QUINCY PONDEXTER, SF
+ Long-armed defender who can score in transition. Poor outside shooter.+ Lacks offensive creativity and court vision. Dribbles with his head down.
Pondexter brought a bit more energy in his second season, but the big-picture takeaway remains the same: He has to score more often to maintain a rotation spot. Pondexter averaged just 10.8 points per 40 minutes with a middling TS%, and had some of the lowest assist ratios at his position. Shooting is the big problem -- he shot from outside only when wide open, as only five small forwards had a lower usage rate, but he still finished at just 30.8 percent on 3s and 38.3 percent on 2s outside the restricted area.
Defensively, he's solid if unspectacular. Pondexter had below-average rates of blocks and steals and one of the highest foul rates at his position, but his other data was all very respectable. If he could hold his own offensively, he'd have some value as a wing defender, but he'll have to become a perimeter threat first. If not, he's more suited as an 11th man for situational defense -- such as the end of quarters -- and periodic energy bursts.
JOSH SELBY, PG
+ Athletic guard with low skill level. Slasher who struggles to finish.+ Poor passer and prone to bad decisions. Can defend his position.
If you're a slasher and you shoot 40.4 percent on 2s with a low foul rate, well, that's a problem. If you're a point guard and you have as many turnovers as assists, that's a big issue, too. And if you have both of those things happening at once, well, you're in the wrong league.
Selby was in the wrong league last season. He's quick and athletic and he might eventually become a useful player -- he had a fantastic summer league -- but as a rookie he couldn't hurt opponents from outside and made terrible decisions in the paint. For an allegedly athletic guard, he also had a very poor rebound rate.
However, if he can hone his finishing skills, develop a floater and figure out the purpose of the other four players on the court, he may yet have a career; Selby overgambles but didn't completely embarrass himself defensively, and he played very well in an eight-game stint in the D-League.
Those eight games are the hint of promise offered by Selby, and he should get more seasoning there this season. Selby is only 21 and was one of the most highly rated payers in his high school class, and while he was still massively turnover-prone in the D-League, he offset it with vastly better shooting and finishing. He may yet become a quality point guard, but be patient.
― moullet, Friday, 21 September 2012 17:04 (thirteen years ago)
our fave DARKO MILICIC, C
+ Left-handed low post player who likes to shoot lefty hook or spin baseline.+ Poor offensive instincts. Turnover prone and rarely scores at the rim.+ Great shot-blocker but defensive effort fluctuates. Poor rebounder for his size.
The Timberwolves stopped pretending Darko was a low-post weapon, although they did continue pretending he was a starting center for half a season. Ultimately, however, the sullen, lethargic defensive effort and off-the-dribble snap passes into Section 114 were too much to tolerate, and Minnesota cut its losses after the season.
Boston has always had a healthy appetite for reclamation projects, but this one might be a bit more than they can chew. While Milicic wasn't that bad production-wise until last season, igniting his flagging motor could prove a Herculean task.
On the positive side, he's a better third center than most, and even last season the Wolves defended better with him on the court. One suspects Boston will tell him that he's never, ever getting the ball on the block again, and to just rebound, run the floor and defend the rim. He can do those things when motivated, but the "when motivated" part has always been his downfall.
― moullet, Friday, 21 September 2012 18:32 (thirteen years ago)
bulls
DERRICK ROSE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER27.33.88.924.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Dynamic scoring point guard with good size and elite athleticism.+ Outstanding finisher, especially in transition. Average shooter. Excels at runners.+ Rebounds well for his size. Improved defender. Killer left-to-right crossover.
AnalysisRose produced a reasonable facsimile of his MVP season the year before, except that he missed half of the 2011-12 campaign. Rose played only 39 games and, of course, tore up his knee in the first game of the playoffs against Philadelphia. He'll be lucky to play anywhere near 39 games this season, with the injury expected to keep him out until March or so, but the more pressing concern is whether he can come back as the same player.
Getting athleticism and power from his knees is more important for Rose than it is for most players -- he shot only 31.3 percent on 3s and 36.7 percent on long 2s last season and has put up similar numbers throughout his career. It's his ability to get to the basket and explode toward the rim that sets him apart. (Side note: Rose also had the league's second-lowest assist quality and could stand to improve his court vision.)
Based on the experience of others, the expectation is that his return this spring might be a bit rocky as he works out the kinks, and that his 2013-14 might be much better. The Bulls appear to be proceeding with the same mindset, judging by their offseason moves. The good news is that Rose will be just 24 on opening day, giving him plenty of time to recover and continue improving.
RICHARD HAMILTON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.83.64.611.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Fit, thin, midrange jump shooter who excels moving without the ball.+ Stopped drawing fouls in 2011-12. Good transition player. Lacks strength.+ Poor rebounder. Solid passer and ball handler. Can defend quick guards.
AnalysisHamilton played only 28 games, so take the shooting numbers with a grain of salt, but of more lasting concern was the demise of his free throw attempts. Without those, he's a really ordinary player because more than half his shots are long 2s -- in fact, he took a higher proportion of his shots from that distance than any other player in the league (see chart). In the past he's been able to draw a fair number of fouls with shot fakes and moves off the ball, but last season only three shooting guards had a worse rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt; Hamilton had only 37 free throw attempts all season.
Largest % of shots as midrange jumpers, perimeter playersPlayer Team Pct. of FGA from 10-23 feetRichard Hamilton Chi 61.8Charles Jenkins GS 60.0Gerald Henderson Cha 58.4Grant Hill Phx 56.3Evan Turner Phi 56.0Min. 500 minutes. Source: Hoopdata.comThe result of that was a 50.0 TS%, which ranked in the bottom 10 among shooting guards and wasn't anywhere near good enough for a primary offensive option. It didn't help that his 39.8 percent mark on long 2s wasn't up to his usual caliber, but that's a secondary story if he can't earn any free throws.
Defensively, Hamilton isn't exactly renowned as an ace, and he blocked one shot the entire season. He tends to stay at home and not take chances, and he's sometimes better when he can cross-match against point guards, but Chicago gave up 4.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. You'd wonder if he would be better off playing off the bench, where his shot creation would be more valuable with Chicago's fairly limited unit. But in any role he can't have such a high usage rate and produce this inefficiently.
LUOL DENG, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.66.52.914.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, long wing who can shoot over the top of defenders. Good athlete. + Likes to go right off one dribble for the jumper. Not a creative offensive player.+ Excellent defender due to his size, mobility and effort. Average shooter.
AnalysisThe All-Star selection was a bit of a joke -- Deng's PER was a career low, not to mention below the league average -- but Deng's play warranted praise in several areas. First, he was hampered by torn wrist ligaments all season and gutted it out anyway. This especially affected his ballhandling -- less than a quarter of his shots were at the rim and his free throw rate dropped, as Deng just didn't have the wherewithal to get to the basket consistently.
Second, the hard work he has put in to make himself a 3-point shooter really paid off. Deng made 36.7 percent of his 3s while taking more than four a game, somewhat offsetting a miserable 43.0 percent mark on 2s. As a result of the latter, however, Deng's TS% was a rather poor 50.0.
Defensively, however, he's an ace. Deng is bigger and longer than just about every wing in the league, he moves well, and he never takes a night off. Few are more adept at suffocating big wing players, and he can move up and play some 4 too. (We may see much more of that this season with Omer Asik gone.) Opposing small forwards had just an 11.3 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and the Bulls gave up 1.7 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court ... even though the Bulls' bench generally had a much better defensive plus-minus than the starters last season.
CARLOS BOOZER, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.511.22.618.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Bruising, high-scoring forward who is the best weak-hand finisher in the game. + Shoots high-arcing midrange jumper and can score in the post. Doesn't draw fouls.+ Excellent rebounder but a subpar defender. Lacks both length and intensity.
AnalysisBoozer failed as a leading man when Derrick Rose went out in the first round of the playoffs, but his regular season showed him to be a pretty good second option. Boozer shot 53.2 percent overall and was particularly good on short-range shots around the basket, posting the league's best shooting percentage from 3 to 9 feet (see chart). Boozer wasn't chopped liver from the other distances either, hitting 68.1 percent in the immediate basket area and a stellar 44.2 percent of his long 2s.
Best shooting percentage from 3-9 feet, 2011-12Player Tea Pct.Carlos Boozer Chi 53.8LaMarcus Aldridge Por 52.1Roy Hibbert Ind 51.1Chris Paul LAC 49.7Joe Johnson Atl 48.5Min. 100 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comSo what's the problem? He didn't draw any fouls. Boozer's 2.1 free throw attempts per game were barely half what he averaged the season before. As a result, despite his stellar percentages at every range from the floor, his TS% was just 20th among power forwards. He was still a solid option at that level, but hardly the elite 4 Chicago thought it paid for in the summer of 2010.
Defensively, Boozer is Chicago's worst frontcourt player, but the excellence of the other three made him look worse: Chicago gave up 8.6 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. While he was 11th in rebound rate among power forwards, his help defense was pretty deficient, consisting largely of screaming loudly that a pick was coming before pretending to stop the ball handler. He also has short arms and doesn't always sprint back, making him something of a magnet for criticism in the Windy City.
Here's the interesting nugget lying within, however: For a second straight season, Boozer defended much better as a 5, allowing just a 12.7 opponent PER when he played center according to 82games.com. With the departure of Omer Asik, it's possible he could play there more often with the Bulls' second unit.
JOAKIM NOAH, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.112.83.218.3Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Energetic, hustling center who crashes the boards, runs the floor and defends.+ Strong help defender and great teammate. Emphatic finisher around the basket.+ Poor shooter with side-spinning delivery. Good passer and ball handler.
AnalysisNoah stayed in the lineup all season and had his best season as a pro. Had he played more than 30 minutes a night he easily could have made the All-Star team. Noah's scoring and rebounding rates didn't change, but he developed his ball skills further and now is among the best centers in this area; last season he was fifth at his position in pure point rating. Minus Derrick Rose for much of this coming season, expect Chicago to run even more actions through Noah out of the high post.
Noah's shooting was a bit disappointing -- he converted only 58.7 percent in the basket area -- but he draws fouls and, despite an awkward delivery, makes his free throws. Surprisingly, he's been in the mid-70s for three straight seasons. He remains a top-notch rebounder too, finishing 15th among centers overall and eighth on the offensive glass.
Defensively, however, Noah's numbers weren't as strong as his reputation. The Bulls gave up 8.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. While that's partly a reflection of the Bulls' bench strength and partly a condemnation of frontcourt partner Carlos Boozer, even the more advanced regularized adjusted plus-minus saw him as a neutral defender. His rates of blocks and steals were fairly low, too. While I would still argue he's well above average at this end -- he had a monstrous Synergy rating in 2010-11 and a strong one even last season -- that theory will be tested more severely with Omer Asik's departure.
TAJ GIBSON, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.110.31.515.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Athletic, lean forward who can finish around the basket and run the floor. + Excellent defensive player who can block shots, help guards and rebound.+ Mediocre shooter but draws fouls and crashes the offensive glass.
AnalysisWe already knew Gibson was a beast on defense, but his progress offensively last season was a pleasant surprise. Gibson pumped in 15.1 points per 40 minutes with decent efficiency, and although his midrange jumper remains erratic -- he took nearly three a game and made only 34.8 percent of them -- he countered with a 65.7 percent mark in the basket area, including some devastating two-hand power dunks.
Meanwhile, Gibson ranked second among power forwards in blocks per minute, and his defensive stats are otherworldly. Chicago gave up a whopping 10.5 points per 100 possessions fewer with Gibson on the court, and this was already a dominant defensive team. Opposing power forwards mustered only a 12.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com, but it was his help defense that really stood out -- Gibson can comfortably switch on guards and lock them up.
Amazingly, Gibson played only 20.4 minutes per game, a number that will have to increase significantly if he plays this well again. Gibson was more productive than Carlos Boozer on most nights, and Chicago can also use the two together more often now that Omer Asik has departed. He's already 27 years old, so we shouldn't expect him to progress much from this point, but Gibson is one of the league's most underrated players right now.
KIRK HINRICH, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.13.14.58.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Combo guard who plays better as a 2. Has lost athleticism and burst. + Rarely attacks the rim or breaks down the D. Just an average long-range shooter.+ Tough, active wing defender but struggles to check quick point guards.
AnalysisHinrich's season stats lead one to the worrying thought that he might be in rapid decline, but a view of his splits offers more hope that he can be redeemed. Hinrich came out rusty after the lockout and an early season injury, shooting 33.7 percent before the All-Star break, but shot much better afterward -- 38.4 percent on 3s, 44.8 percent overall -- and the Hawks played well with him starting at the 2.
One thing that's obvious from his tenure as a Hawk is that he's much more effective as a 2 than a 1, at both ends of the floor. Atlanta played some of its best ball late in the season with Hinrich starting at the off guard, where he can be a defensive menace and spot up on the weak side.
That said, it's also obvious he's lost quite a bit from his prime. Even the good part of his season was barely adequate, with just a point every 10 minutes. Hinrich never gets to the line and has basically stopped rebounding. Only one shot in six came at the rim, and that's a tough way to make a living unless you're an elite shooter. Hinrich isn't.
Defensively, he can't handle quick point guards anymore but he's still great against wing isos. Although he gives up inches on the wing he's great at crowding opponents and taking away their space. Opposing 2s had just an 11.0 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
VLADIMIR RADMANOVIC, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.37.32.911.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Tall, sweet-shooting combo forward. Disastrously bad ball handler.+ Good feet on defense but lacks strength and doesn't always play hard.+ Struggled to defend 4s. Can't create own shot. Rarely gets to line.
AnalysisHis 37.6 percent shooting might not seem too great, but Radmanovic embraced his role and filled it well. Nearly two-thirds of his shots were 3-pointers and he made 37.0 percent of them, so he had a decent TS% despite his wayward shooting inside the arc. And he was less turnover-prone than in other seasons, moving the ball quickly rather than getting adventuresome with his shaky handle.
The best thing in his favor, though, is that at 31 Radmanovic still moves well. He often played small forward and defended the position adequately, and his rebound rate nearly set a career high. He again had a surprisingly strong rate of blocked shots, too. Synergy rated him well above the curve, and according to 82games.com he did particularly well at the 3 -- allowing just an 8.9 opponent PER.
Based on all that, it was a bit strange to see him nailed to the bench in the playoffs. He wasn't great, but he's a useful rotation player, and as long as he keeps his mobility he should be an effective combo forward off the bench.
NATE ROBINSON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.13.46.614.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Emotional, pint-sized guard with explosive hops. Aggressive scorer.+ Good outside shooter but shot selection an issue. Gets out of control.+ Strength, athleticism partly offset size on D. Loses focus, gambles and fouls.
AnalysisIt now appears that Robinson's horrific 2010-11 season was an outlier. He reverted to his old form last season as one of the league's premier bench energizers and proved a tremendous low-cost pickup for Golden State. Robinson averaged nearly a point every two minutes, but the real revelation was his distribution from the point. Unbelievably, he ranked ninth in the league in pure point rating and eighth in turnover rate; in particular, his rate of 7.8 assists per 40 minutes was by far the best of his career.
As always, Robinson shot well, too. He hit 36.5 percent of his 3s and a solid 40.2 percent of his long 2s, along with a decent free throw rate. Add it all up and he was a major offensive plus, creating lots of shots for both himself and his teammates, with a respectable percentage and few turnovers.
Defensively, Robinson graded as the worst player in the league with at least 300 plays defended, according to Synergy. I don't think he was really quite that bad -- his other data wasn't nearly as negative -- but he certainly wasn't good. Robinson ranked in the top quarter of point guards in steals per minute, but only at a huge cost in missed gambles and fouls. At 5-9, it's fairly easy for opponents to play over the top of him too.
NAZR MOHAMMED, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.09.30.811.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Clever big man with a knack for below-rim rebounding and short-range scoring.+ Mediocre mobility, limited leaping ability. Struggles in one-on-one defense.+ Ugly behind-head jumper with 12-foot range. Never passes. Bad hands.
AnalysisMohammed became the odd man out in the Thunder's frontcourt rotation once they started using more small-ball lineups, especially in the postseason. Aside from the Lakers series where an extra big man was required, he played only 21 postseason minutes and none in the Finals.
Mohammed's slippage at age 34 didn't help matters. He's always been a defensive liability, but his rebound rate fell and he averaged just 9.9 points per 40 minutes -- barely half what he'd done a season earlier. He also stopped drawing fouls completely -- only three centers got to the line less frequently -- further hammering his TS%. With such limited production, keeping him off the floor was an easy call.
MARQUIS TEAGUE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Player card
Scouting report+ Quick point guard who can get to the basket. Decent size. Shaky outside shot.+ Needs to improve finishing. Prone to turnovers. Iffy floor generalship.
AnalysisThe younger brother of Atlanta's Jeff Teague, Marquis packs a similar game but is arguably the better athlete of the two. Despite his struggles early in the season for Kentucky, Teague's season-ending pure point rating of 0.55 wasn't bad. What would concern me more is that he shot only 44 percent on 2s.
Nonetheless, this was a great value pick by Chicago. Teague is unquestionably an NBA athlete and his struggles at the point were perhaps overstated. He may take his lumps as a rookie, but he'll be one of the league's youngest players and offers strong upside at a bargain price going forward. My Draft Rater had Teague rated as the fifth-best talent (I did a couple tweaks post-draft, but even going in I had him rated highly), so getting him at No. 29 while also filling a position need was a huge coup for the Bulls.
MARCO BELINELLI, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.83.32.212.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Sweet-shooting, trigger-happy wingman. Rarely attacks the rim or draws fouls. + Good ball handler for his size but lacks explosiveness and doesn't see the court well. + Mediocre defender. Decent size and mobility, but lacks strength, leaping ability.
AnalysisWe can delve into a deep breakdown of the .001 drop in his free throw percentage or the 1.0 uptick in his assist rate, but Belinelli is turning into a Groundhog Day player -- this is the fourth season in a row he's had essentially the exact same season. It wasn't a great shooting year by his standards, making 37.7 percent both on 3s and long 2s after hitting in the 40s in both distances a season earlier, and that contributed to his slight scoring dip. Otherwise, it was the same low-turnover, spot-up shooting game we've come to know.
Defensively, Belinelli still is below average, with the Hornets giving up 5.3 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and between that and his ho-hum PER of the past four seasons, it's getting increasingly difficult to justify the major role he's had. His shooting has value and he can do a few other things reasonably well, but realistically this is the performance we expect from the fourth wing in the rotation, not a starter. He has 124 starts over the past two seasons, but I won't be surprised if he has zero over the next two.
JIMMY BUTLER, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, overachieving wing who can play tough defense. Smart, great attitude.+ Middling outside shooter but drew fouls in bunches as a rookie. Solid rebounder.
AnalysisButler played bits and pieces of 42 games but didn't accomplish a whole lot, shooting only 40.5 percent while shooting mostly long 2s. However, his enormous free throw rate offset most of the damage from his shooting, allowing him to finish with a respectable TS%. Throw in solid defense and above-average rebounding for a wing, and Chicago may have itself a useful player.
The question, of course, is how much of this will carry over to more regular duty -- particularly the free throw attempts, which are the dividing line between his being moderately useful on offense and his being a millstone. The Bulls cleared the way for him to play a lot more this season, so we should have an answer fairly early.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Friday, 21 September 2012 20:30 (thirteen years ago)
Scouting report+ Pick-and-pop 4 with good feel for scoring. Excellent foul shooter.+ Good rebounder. An inch short for power forward. Average athlete.+ Alumnus of the world's best university.
^^ lol uva bias
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 27 September 2012 05:30 (thirteen years ago)
hawks
JEFF TEAGUE, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.73.16.516.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Quick, scoring-minded guard who can get to basket. Good leaper.+ Mediocre outside shooter with a good floater. Average distributor at best.+ Athletic defender with good lateral quickness. Must improve strength, smarts.
AnalysisTeague took over the starting point guard job and continued his steady improvement, upping his shooting percentage with the help of a much-improved floater. Teague was athletic enough to shoot 60.9 percent at the rim, but what really helped was his 42.9 percent shooting from 3-9 feet -- a shot he went to fairly often. Most guards shoot very poorly in that range, but Teague turned it into a strength.
Alas, his off-the-shoulder set shot remains a bit of a liability. He only made 35.4 percent of his 3s and 38.1 percent of his long 2s. While that's not terrible, you'd like better from a starting point guard. Teague also rarely shoots the 3 at all, usually only when left wide open on the perimeter. For that reason he was just 57th among point guards in secondary percentage ... largely offsetting the fact he was fourth in 2-point shooting.
Defensively, Teague's quickness at the point of attack was a major reason the Hawks were so much better last season. He's amazing at chase-down blocks and has quick hands, but overall his lack of size and periodic inattention made him more of a middle-of-the-pack defender. That, still, was light years better than the Hawks got from this position previously. His non-participation on the glass was a mystery, however -- he was 64th out 70 point guards in rebound rate, a steep decline from a season earlier.
ANTHONY MORROW, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.93.21.612.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Amazing shooter. Money off the catch. Can play over top of smaller guards.+ Subpar defensive player. Limited laterally and athletically. Low energy level.+ Decent rebounder for size. Not a creator, but has good feel offensively.
AnalysisMorrow had an off year shooting by his lofty standards, making "only" 37.1 percent of his 3-pointers and 43.6 percent of his 2s outside 10 feet. He showed his chops as a shooter by draining 93.3 percent from the line, and one presumes he's a safe bet to regain his perch in the mid-40s on 3s this season.
Unusually for a jump shooter, Morrow loves wing isolations and will use them against smaller players to create a jumper. This isn't as valuable as his catch-and-shoot game, however, and one hopes the Hawks will de-emphasize it. Additionally, Morrow has to regain his focus on the finer elements. His assist and rebound numbers have been in steady decline the past three seasons, and last season he was among the worst shooting guards in each category.
Morrow has to be sharp in all these facets because he's a defensive liability. He's not a great athlete and struggles at both ends of the position spectrum: quick guards blow by him, but big ones destroy him on post-ups. He doesn't foul, at least, but his effort seems token and he needs to be hidden against weaker offensive players. His numbers last season weren't bad, but in other seasons they have been. Given the year-to-year noise inherent in most defensive stats, the subjective evaluation is that not much had changed, and given the Nets' general defensive awfulness last season, we needn't revise our evaluation.
KYLE KORVER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.84.33.012.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long-range shooting wing with good size. Good shooter off curls.+ Struggles in one-on-one defense but solid overall. Strong and has fast hands.+ Won't create own shot but can post up small wings. Good court vision.
AnalysisKorver remains deadly from outside, nailing 43.4 percent of his 3s and 40.2 percent of his long 2s to finish fifth among shooting guards in true shooting percentage. What I particularly liked was that two-thirds of his shots were 3s; in past seasons too many of his tries were long 2s. Chicago ran fewer pin-downs for him with the second unit and his usage rate dropped because of that, but he has shown he can be an absolutely deadly sniper.
However, it would be nice if he could get to the basket once in a while. Or even once a week. Korver had 15 shots in the basket area the entire season, which is pathetic, and as you might imagine he had a low free throw rate, too. That puts a ton of pressure on him to shoot at a very high percentage, a category that's very volatile from year to year. On a more positive note, he's very good finding open teammates when opponents race out to him on the perimeter, and his pure point rating was among the best of any wing player.
Defensively, Korver isn't somebody you'd want to leave on an island against good scorers, but he's a good team defender who has fast hands, plus he's big enough to bang with larger wings inside. His rebound rate is poor for a player of his size, but he had good Synergy numbers and the Bulls performed just as well with him on the court.
JOSH SMITH, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.610.54.219.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ High-flying lefty with underrated ballhandling skills. A terror in open court.+ Mediocre shooter who forces long set shots. Good left-block post player.+ Great shot-blocker and solid pick-and-roll defender. Makes mental lapses.
AnalysisSmith has become a heck of a player in spite of himself, posting career highs in points, rebounds and player efficiency rating (PER) during an All-Star caliber season. Speaking to his versatility, Smith ranked among the top 10 power forwards in eight different barometers: blocks and steals per minute, assist rate, pure point rating, points per minute, defensive rebound rate, usage rate and PER. Defensively, he's become much more than a weak-side shot-blocker, adding muscle and putting in productive minutes at center. Though he'll have some lapses he mostly plays hard, and his mobility lets him switch onto smaller guards easily.
Offensively, he shot 68.1 percent in the basket area and has become a beast on the low left block against smaller opponents. Unfortunately, his love-fest with 20-foot jumpers continues to sabotage his numbers. Smith only made 36.7 percent of his long 2s, yet attempted an amazing 411 of them last season, or more than six a game. In fact, only Kobe Bryant took more. Smith also took another 106 3-pointers and made only 25.5 percent of them.
So about half his shot attempts went to tries where he had barely a one-in-three success rate. You don't mind so much if he's taking this shot late in the clock, but with more than eight seconds left it's absolute madness. Opponents openly concede the shot, and fans in Philips Arena shriek "Noooooo!" as he winds up for it, but Smith is undeterred. The coaching staff strangely indulges him in this too.
As a direct result of the Js -- with a small assist from his wayward foul shooting -- Smith's TS% of 49.9 ranked only 53rd among power forwards, and offset a lot of the good he did in other offensive facets. It also has kept him off the All-Star team, as he's about halfway to the dubious honor of becoming the best player never named.
AL HORFORD, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.210.63.820.3Did not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Elite big man with great mid-range shot. Can run floor, handle, pass and finish.+ Developing post game. Needs to improve left hand and utilize more fakes.+ A natural 4 but capable of defending 5s. Very good on switches. Rebounds well.
AnalysisHorford only played 11 games before a torn pectoral muscle ended his regular season. He returned in time to play three playoff games for the Hawks and remind everybody why he made the All-Star team the year before. No center is better at taking a defensive rebound and starting a break upcourt himself, and few can match his mid-range game and ball skills. If anything, Atlanta needs to take better advantage of those talents.
Horford has done all this while playing out of position his entire career. His real position is the 4, where he can be a beast on the block against opposing power forwards and he fits better defensively.
LOU WILLIAMS, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.73.95.119.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Small, shoot-first guard with outstanding quickness and awesome shot fake.+ Draws fouls, creates shots and won't turn it over. Poor vision. Middling shooter.+ Too small to guard 2s, but can defend 1s when paired with a bigger point guard.
AnalysisWilliams led the Sixers in scoring and PER despite coming off the bench, though he remains more of a high-volume producer of not terribly high-quality shots. The secret to his value is in his miniscule turnover rate. Williams created all these shots while producing the lowest rate of any point guard and among the lowest in the league. The Sixers set a record for fewest turnovers by a team last season, and Williams was a major reason. Of course, critics would say one reason he never turned it over is that he never tried to pass -- only five point guards had a lower assist rate.
However, Williams' ordinary TS% and assist numbers mean that his best use is still to create shots for second units that lack other scorers. The pinnacle of this was the "Lou-for-one," his hell-bent runs at the end of quarters to get two shots to the opponent's one any time the Sixers had the ball with 35 seconds or so left. That said, he also helped himself with a career-best 36.2 percent mark on 3-pointers, and as usual used his great shot fake to draw plenty of fouls.
Defensively, Williams rarely fouled and was quick enough to defend opposing point guards, but the real reason it worked is because Jrue Holiday could play the 2. Williams is an odd player to fit into a lineup because he can't defend the shooting guard but he's not a true point guard. This worked on Philly's roster, but it remains to be seen how well it will function in an Atlanta backcourt consisting entirely of other small guards.
But don't let that obscure the big picture. Guards with 20 PERs don't grow on trees, and Philly made a mistake in letting this one go during his prime.
ZAZA PACHULIA, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.911.01.913.3Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Physical big man who attacks rim. Struggles to finish but draws lots of fouls.+ Right-hand driver. Plays below rim but moves well for size. Makes short jumpers.+ Solid post defender and rebounder. Can't block shots. Good handle for size.
AnalysisPachulia drew fouls at a less insane rate than previous seasons, but he still got to the line once for every two field goal attempts and hit 74.1 percent from the line, one of the better marks at the center position. The fouls offset his inability to finish against length around the basket: Pachulia's 55.8 percent mark at the rim was among the worst for big men. On a positive note, his pick-and-pop game was extremely effective. He shot 49.4 percent on 2s from beyond 10 feet, which would have been in the league's top five if he'd had enough attempts.
Pachulia also handles the ball well for his size; while he turns it over a bit much, he's a good passer and ranked in the top quarter of centers in pure point rating.
Of course, his main asset is his physicality at both ends. He was an above average rebounder for a center and happily busts heads in post defense. He can't defend the rim, sporting the fifth-worst blocked shot rate among centers for a second straight season, but he moves fairly well laterally and will give a hard foul. All that made him a very effective backup, and even a decent stopgap starter last season.
DEVIN HARRIS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.12.77.315.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Lightning-quick guard. Gets to basket at will and constantly draws fouls+ Mediocre outside shooter. Doesn't see floor well and tends to dominate ball+ Takes charges but overall defensive effort is subpar. Prone to minor injuries.
AnalysisHarris took less of an assertive role on offense and really struggled early in the season, but overall he had a fairly solid 2011-12. He upped his scoring considerably after the All-Star break, from 9.1 points to 13.6, and in particular became much more assertive looking for 3s, launching nearly twice as many after the break with career-best accuracy. Moreover, he missed only three games, a minor miracle given his previous history.
Offensively, Harris was much more efficient than in recent years. His 49.8 percent mark on 2s ranked ninth among point guards and he was sixth in free throw rate. Alas, his 74.6 percent mark from the line was a disappointment. Harris also shot a career-best 36.2 percent on 3s while becoming increasingly enamored with pull-ups in transition, and posted some of the best assist and turnover rates of his career. In fact, his pure point rating was in the top third of point guards, belying his shoot-first rep.
Defensively, Harris willingly takes charges but will take bad dives trying for them and has no alternate plan for stopping anybody. He's tall for a point guard but light, and his effort level comes and goes. Opposing point guards had a 16.6 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com, while Synergy ranked him among the league's worst point guards defensively. That's an exaggeration, but he's clearly more hindrance than help at this end.
JOHAN PETRO, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.09.52.110.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Seven-footer with good quickness for size. Has fast hands but fouls a lot.+ Decent passer but otherwise has very poor offensive instincts.+ Can make 15-footer with under-chin push shot. Rarely scores around basket.
AnalysisPetro had his moments as a backup center, with his solid defense offset by woeful offense. Let's start with the good news, or at least the non-awful news: Petro shot 37.8 percent from outside 10 feet, as his little push shot has made him a somewhat acceptable fifth option when the offense needs a little spacing. He's not a bad high-post passer either.
But the reason he's such a killer offensively is that he doesn't do the stuff 7-footers are supposed to. Petro shot an embarrassing 44.1 percent in the basket area, and had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. As a result, he had a brutal 45.2 TS% that wasn't any kind of outlier at all, as it was the fourth time in five years he's been under 46.
Defensively, Petro doesn't block as many shots as you'd think and gives a lot of fouls -- one every 7.5 minutes last season. Plus, he's always been a disappointment on the boards. However, he's big and mobile, and retains some value because of that. Overall, he's a league-average center on this end. It's the offense that makes him unplayable.
DeSHAWN STEVENSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER6.53.71.84.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Strong wing defender with toughness. History of back problems.+ Poor outside shooter but spots up for corner 3s and does little else on offense.+ Handles ball well but has no burst or leaping ability. Very poor finisher.
AnalysisMonths after capably defending LeBron James in the NBA Finals and nailing countless clutch 3s, Stevenson reverted to being one of the worst offensive players in basketball, a one-man tanking strategy who somehow was still starting in March.
His 4.33 PER was the worst of any position player to see at least 500 minutes last season (see chart), with Stevenson basically just hanging out in the corner and otherwise standing completely inert.
Worst PER, 2011-12Player Team PERDeShawn Stevenson Nets 4.33Shawne Wiliams Nets 4.96Matt Carroll Bobcats 5.68Sasha Pavlovic Celtics 6.78Keyon Dooling Celtics 6.92Min. 500 minutesHe took 162 jump shots and nine shots at the rim. Nine.
He also had a higher percentage of his shots from outside the 3-point line than any player in the league (see Jason Kidd comment). Had he shot better than 28.3 percent on 3-pointers, this approach might have been more successful. Of course, he only shot 28.6 percent inside the arc, so pick your poison.
Where Stevenson remains genuinely valuable is at the defensive end. Synergy rated him among the league's top small forwards last season, and the Nets gave up 7.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Stevenson on the court, according to 82games.com. Those numbers likely overstate things; he looked slow and heavy the entire season, and ranked in the bottom 10 at his position in blocks, steals and rebounds. But he's physical and knows where to be, and on a ragged mess like the Nets were last season, that had value.
IVAN JOHNSON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Tough, undersized big man with scoring mentality. Has 15-foot range. + Excellent finisher. High-mistake player prone to fouls and turnovers. + Good hands on D. Takes charges and rebounds, but struggles to defend length.
AnalysisA 28-year-old rookie last season with a bit of a rap sheet (he was kicked out of the Korean League, for instance), Johnson found a niche in Atlanta, where his bench scoring and toughness proved quite helpful once Al Horford went down.
Johnson is an extreme high-mistake player -- his turnover ratio was the third-worst among power forwards, and only five fouled more often. He made up for it with his energy and offensive skill, shooting 67.6 percent in the basket area while drawing a high rate of fouls, and finishing in the top half of power forwards in rebound rate.
JOHN JENKINS, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Deadly outside shooter. Deep range and quick release.+ Small for a wing. Limited athlete. Very poor rebounder for size.
AnalysisOne-trick ponies like Jenkins usually go in the second round, but Atlanta snagged him late in the first after he shot 44 percent on 3s at Vanderbilt while taking nearly nine a game. That about does it for the good news. He had a truly awful rebound rate for a wing player, his defensive ability and general athleticism are major question marks, and he can't create his own shot. His stroke may earn him some minutes and he'll certainly hit his share of 3s, but it's hard to see much upside.
MIKE SCOTT, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
AnalysisScott, already 24, played five years at Virginia and he didn't really dominate until the final two, when he was older than all his competition. Those two red flags are why he fell to the second round, but he's also a productive, skilled 4 in the David West mold. (A destitute man's David West, but still.) If he can defend the position adequately -- a big if given his size and modest athleticism -- he can become a rotation player.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 27 September 2012 05:31 (thirteen years ago)
nuggz
TY LAWSON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.43.97.219.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Small, lightning-fast guard who can push the tempo and penetrate in the half court.+ Good outside shooter but excels going to the basket. Good court vision.+ Quick defender but takes few chances. Low steal rate but never fouls.
AnalysisLawson took on a bigger chunk of offensive responsibility and didn't lose a thing, flying up and down the court as the catalyst behind Denver's impressive fast-break attack. I mention Andre Miller's assist quality below, but Lawson was no slouch either -- among guards with at least 200 assists, he ranked third in the league -- as his passes were nearly as likely to produce dunks and layups as Miller's.
The amazing thing with Lawson is he can play at such a high speed without any drop-off in efficiency. He was 18th in pure point rating and fifth at his position in true shooting position; he shot 62.8 percent at the rim, which is amazing for a 5-foot-11 guard, but he was nearly as deadly from other spots on the floor. Lawson didn't shoot 3s often -- he has a set shot and he needs a lot of clearance at his size -- but he made 36.7 percent of his attempts. He also shot 40.9 percent from outside 10 feet and drew fouls at a high rate.
Defensively, his size is an issue against big point guards, but he defends penetration and manages his fouls well. While he's not a stopper by any stretch, all his data indicates that he is, at worst, a minor negative at this end.
Lawson averaged 34.8 minutes per game last season, and there is some concern that he might not be able to ramp up much further without diminishing his trademark bursts up and down the court. Otherwise, he appears settled in as a not-quite-All-Star at the point.
ANDRE IGUODALA, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.76.86.017.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Elite athlete who ranks among the best perimeter defenders in basketball.+ Dominant in transition due to speed, passing and elite finishing skills.+ Average half-court player. Great passer but mediocre from the perimeter.
AnalysisDespite his laughable exclusion from the All-Defense team, Iguodala finally got some recognition for his elite defensive skills, making his first All-Star team and getting a lot of free pub in the Sixers' playoff run. By any measure he's an impactful defender -- Synergy again rated him among the best at his position and, according to 82games.com, he held opposing small forwards to a miniscule 8.7 PER. He also ranked seventh in steals per minute at his position despite having one of the lowest foul rates in the league.
Offensively, Iguodala is a true point forward -- for the second year in a row, he had the best pure point rating among non-point guards, and his 6.1 assists per 40 minutes led the team. His defense helped here as well, as often he'd make the steal or rebound that ignited a break and then threw the pass that completed it.
Best Pure Point Rating, Non-Point Guards, 2011-12Player Team PPRAndre Iguodala Phi 5.02Manu Ginobili SA 4.63Monta Ellis GS-Mil 2.53Chauncey Billups LAC 2.53Tracy McGrady Atl 2.43Min. 500 minutesIn half-court settings, Iguodala is less fearsome. When he gets to the rim, he's unbelievable, converting 75.2 percent -- the third-best mark in the league, but he made only 61.7 percent from the line and hit just 33.5 percent of his long 2s. The one area in which he genuinely improved was the 3-point shot, making 39.4 percent on nearly three attempts per game. However, his overall offensive role has diminished quite a bit over the past two seasons -- a change that probably better suits him.
DANILO GALLINARI, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.35.93.217.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, tough wing with a sweet shot and attacking mentality. Straight-line driver.+ Average handle but draws tons of fouls. Great foul shooter but inconsistent on 3s.+ Average athlete. Big but struggles to defend 4s. Looks stiff on defense at times.
AnalysisWhen did this guy forget how to shoot? Gallinari is slowly turning from the next Nowitzki into the next Tony Allen, slashing to the rim virtually every chance he gets while getting more inconsistent every year from outside. Last season he made just 32.8 percent of his 3s and 35.6 percent of his long 2s, but more than half his 2s were at the rim and he had the second-highest free throw rate among small forwards.
Between his size, broad frame and attacking mindset, Gallinari has become a foul-drawing monster, and as a result he had the third-best secondary percentage at his position even with the 3-point struggles. If he ever regains the 44.4 percent stroke he showed as a rookie in New York -- and don't count it out, considering he's an 85.2 percent career marksman at the line -- he's an All-Star.
Gallinari might have been anyway last season, but after a strong start he injured his ankle and wasn't the same player when he came back. Gallinari averaged 17.0 points on 44.2 percent shooting before the All-Star break, but just 11.7 points on 35.8 percent afterward.
Defensively, Gallinari is much better than people realize. Synergy had him slightly above average, opposing small forwards posted only an 11.2 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and he had the best on-court vs. off-court rating on the Nuggets. He does great against the longer 3s such as Kevin Durant or Luol Deng, but if he has to play a smaller speedster, he's in trouble. He also should be able to play more as a small-ball 4. However, he's a poor rebounder and can't protect the rim, so he needs a very good defensive 5 with him to make it work.
In sum, he's a very solid starter, and at 23, one still wonders if there's the potential for more. He's had trouble staying healthy and getting his jumper to find the net, but if those stars ever align, he can be an All-Star.
KENNETH FARIED, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.313.71.821.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Undersized 4 with boundless energy. Great rebounder who flies off the floor.+ Mainly a dunker on offense. Has no post game at all and is a weak outside shooter.+ Competes on defense but struggles defending the post. Blocks shots but fouls often.
AnalysisThe "Manimal" was a sight to behold in his rookie year, even if his nickname evoked memories of a brutal television series three decades earlier. Short for a power forward at 6-foot-8, Faried played almost entirely in the basket area and succeeded thanks to supreme hops and a relentless, infectious pursuit of the ball. He led all power forwards in overall rebound rate, but it was his offensive board work in particular that stood out.
Despite his lack of height, Faried led the NBA in offensive rebound rate, even outdueling the prolific Reggie Evans on this score (see chart). All those second shots allowed him to average 18.2 points per 40 minutes despite never having plays called for him. Faried also was able to make some short-range floaters and hooks in the lane, but was only 9-of-34 from beyond 10 feet and shot just 66.5 percent from the line.
Offensive Rebound Rate leaders, 2011-12Player Team ORRKenneth Faried Den 16.5Nikola Pekovic Min 15.8Reggie Evans LAC 15.3Anderson Varejao Cle 15.2Omer Asik Chi 14.9Min. 500 minutesDefensively, Faried brought the same energy, but his youth and lack of size worked against him. While he was sixth among power forwards in blocks per minute, he also fouled at a high rate and had poor defensive metrics -- on-court vs. off-court analysis and Synergy sports both deemed him solidly negative at this end. It's not unusual for rookies to take their lumps on D, however, and with a little more bulk and experience and the same energy, he should be decent.
All told, he was a steal with the 22nd pick in the draft. Energy guys like this often don't make much statistical improvement from when they first enter the league, but Faried was so good last year that he doesn't have to. If he just keeps producing like this and improves the defense, he's a star.
JaVALE McGEE, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.511.80.919.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Freakish athlete with rare combination of size, speed, length and leaping ability.+ Minuscule basketball IQ. Blocks shots but takes bad gambles and goaltends often. + Good rebounder. Makes running hooks in the post. Poor foul shooter.
AnalysisPart athletic freak, part comedy routine, nobody is totally sure what to make of JaVale McGee yet. Footage of him sprinting back while his team still had the ball, goaltending a jump shot millimeters from the rim and getting hopelessly lost on defense makes it impossible to imagine him becoming a star.
But in between those vignettes, his production is mighty impressive. McGee averaged nearly a point every two minutes, yanked nearly a rebound every three, shot 55.6 percent from the floor and finished 11th among centers in PER. He shot 70.5 percent at the rim with a variety of highlight dunks, although he needs to improve his midrange shooting (17-of-71 from beyond 10 feet, 46.1 percent from the line) and feel for the game.
Defensively, the Nuggets developed him more in two months than the Wizards did in four years, but he still has a ton of work left. McGee is a potentially dominant shot-blocker but has no filter -- he tries to block everything, even if he's 20 feet away or the ball is obviously on its way down. He also has a high center of gravity and struggles to keep opponents out of deep post position. As a result opposing centers blistered him at both stops, registering a 21.2 PER in Denver and a 21.8 mark in Washington, according to 82games.com.
Additionally, McGee's rebounding stats are a lie: For a good rebounder, he has a massively negative impact on his team's overall rebound rate. Denver rebounded just 68.4 percent of opponent misses with him on the court, compared to 72.4 percent with him off it; similarly, Washington's rate dipped by 5.4 percent with McGee on the floor. That's a pretty massive difference considering 6.9 percentage points separated first from worst last season. Again, his mental game is the cause: McGee doesn't block his man out and often leaves the board exposed to go for a block he has little chance of getting.
With all that said, he's still only 24. Even having a limited clue of what to do on the basketball court, he was an effective player last season, and in his time in Denver there were signs of the light bulb turning on.
ANDRE MILLER, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.04.79.514.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, crafty point guard with great left-block post game and up-and-under move. + Best alley-oop passer in the game. Struggles to stay in front of quick guards. + Terrible long-range shooter but makes free throws. Good team defender.
AnalysisMiller remains fascinating to watch -- almost like a 40-year-old junkball pitcher -- as he's the master of change-of-pace moves and short-range bank shots. Nonetheless, his play dropped off on several indices last year. He was dramatically more turnover-prone, his scoring and shooting marks plummeted, and he stopped drawing fouls. At 36, it's a worrying sign that he might finally be slipping. The one comforting stat is that he still got to the rim as much as ever; he just missed more shots from short and midrange.
Also, a good indication that Miller's value might be underrated by conventional stats is that he once again was off the charts in "assist quality." Not all assists are created equal -- setting somebody up for a 20-footer is nice, setting them up for a dunk is better. And while teammates obviously matter for this, Miller has been phenomenally good at the latter in multiple stops.
Last season he was way above the curve, as a whopping 64.2 percent of Miller's assists were at the rim, by far the best among players with at least a hundred assists. Only 9 percent resulted in long 2s.
As a result, Miller was far and away the league leader in assist quality -- the marginal value of each assist, which I calculated based on the probability of a shot from each spot on the court leading to a basket. The typical assist is worth about two-thirds of a point; Miller's were worth more than a point, the only player in the past two seasons to do so.
It's not just a function of Denver; in a very different environment in Portland a year earlier, Miller ranked second in assist quality. He and Baron Davis both changed teams but were the top two for a second straight season.
"Assist Quality" -- Average value per assistPlayer Team ValueAndre Miller Den 1.040Baron Davis NY .978Manu Ginobili SA .948Jeremy Lin NY .936Jimmer Fredette Sac .936Based on Hoopdata.com assist stats. Min. 100 assistsI don't want to take this data further than it's worth -- we're talking about a value, at the extremes, of two points of PER, and his mark dropped more than three points last year alone. He's also a liability defensively and his inability to space the floor remains problematic, especially when another non-shooter is on the floor with him.
WILSON CHANDLER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.36.72.214.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long, athletic wing rebounds very well for his size. Lacks bulk to play the 4.+ Solid defender. Has athleticism but must improve technique. Blocks shots.+ Mediocre outside shooter. Will force shots. Runs floor well. Doesn't draw fouls.
AnalysisChandler played most of the year in China and required hip surgery after just eight games with the Nuggets. Perhaps it was for the best that he checked out so quickly -- he forced shots, missed most of them and generally seemed out of sync when he returned. Chandler did, however, continue his maddening habit of avoiding contact en route to the rim, earning only 12 free-throw attempts on his 79 field goal tries.
Chandler got a five-year, $37 million deal based on his potential, which sounds like a lot until you allow for the unlikely incentives, very partial first year and the partially guaranteed last -- in reality it's more like three years, $21 million. Nonetheless, to live up to it he has to do more than shoot 18-footers off the dribble. He's a devastating finisher and shoots well from the line but has yet to exploit those skills to their fullest. Similarly, defensively he remains intriguing, but nobody would yet call him a stopper.
At 25, it's time to convert some of that "potential" into "actual"; otherwise he's just an overpaid tease.
TIMOFEY MOZGOV, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.79.91.412.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Mobile big man who can battle on the blocks and hit the open 15-footer.+ Bad ball handler with terrible hands and footwork. Limited post game.+ Runs floor well. Blocks shots but average rebounder.
AnalysisMozgov cut his foul rate dramatically from the ridiculousness of his rookie season and was able to stay on the court long enough to become a part-time starter for the Nuggets. He's not really a starting-caliber player, but he made solid progress at both ends this past season.
Mozgov's biggest weakness remains his bad hands and awkward footwork, which has left him prone to turnovers. In fact, he was last in the NBA in pure point rating in 2011-12 (see chart), which held back his overall effectiveness.
Pure Point Rating: Worst of 2011-12Player Team PPRTimofey Mozgov Den -5.58Enes Kanter Uta -5.57Ryan Hollins Cle-Bos -5.56Derrick Favors Uta -5.40Anthony Randolph Min -5.29Min. 500 minutesAdditionally, Mozgov converted only 56.3 percent of his shots at the rim -- a poor percentage for a 7-foot center. He actually shot well on his rare forays from farther out, making 47.4 percent on 74 shots from outside the restricted area, and he's a good foul shooter for a big man as well.
Defensively, Mozgov upped his rebound rate to a solid 15.2 and cut the fouls. He might not seem like a shot-blocker on a team with Birdman and JaVale McGee, but he was 15th among centers in blocks per minute, too. He's weaker defending the perimeter, but overall he's a much greater liability on offense than defense, particularly if he can match up against another big center and bang.
COREY BREWER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.43.11.39.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Slender, athletic wing defender. Great in passing lanes. Fouls too much.+ Tremendous speed running and finishing on the wing. Very poor ball handler.+ Bad outside shooter who struggles in the half court. Positive, well-liked guy.
AnalysisBrewer found a perfect fit for his skills, flying down the wing on the league's second-fastest-paced team and repeatedly throwing down transition dunks -- often within three or four seconds of a bucket by the opponent. Brewer's blazing speed and strong finishing skills translated into more than two baskets a game at the rim and a high free throw rate, which is high living for a player with such a limited handle.
Brewer needs those run-outs, because in the half court he becomes a negative. He shot just 34.6 percent on 2s outside the restricted area and a miserable 25.8 percent on 3s. He likes to spot up from the corners, but opponents gladly concede the shot; he's now at 30.0 percent for his career.
Brewer, did, however, cut his turnovers significantly. While you still don't want him handling the ball if you can help it, he's no longer an immediate threat to fall down when he's dribbling. Brewer also made a concerted effort to move the ball when he didn't have anything, and as a result his assist and turnover ratios both were pretty strong for his position.
Defensively, Brewer isn't quite elite, but he's close. He had the highest steal rate among small forwards, and the Nuggets gave up 5.41 points per 100 possessions more when he was off the court. He's at his best in passing lanes and traps, but he's solid in more static on-ball situations, too. His lack of strength is the main thing holding him back, especially against post-up 3s, and he tends to reach and foul.
KOSTA KOUFOS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.813.41.017.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Skilled big man with soft touch around basket. Makes short hook shots. + Much improved pick-and-roll defender. Mobile but needs more toughness.+ Strong rebounder and decent shot-blocker. Mediocre outside shooter.
AnalysisIn his fourth season, Koufos quietly was among the league's most improved players, with his broad-based development helping him earn the Nuggets' starting-center job halfway through the season. In particular, he showed skill as a finisher near the rim and took advantage of Denver guards hitting him driving to the hoop on pick-and-roll plays. He took only seven shots beyond 10 feet the entire season, but shot 66.9 percent in the basket area and finished fifth among centers in TS%.
Koufos also proved surprisingly monstrous on the glass, ranking ninth among centers in Rebound Rate. Moreover, defensively he finally looked like an NBA player. Koufos got the hang of defending the pick-and-roll this past season, and that made him a useful defensive player against most lineups.
I emphasize "most" because he still gets destroyed in the post by big centers, which is why he was decommissioned in the Laker series. This helps explain two disparate pieces of data on Koufos -- Synergy rated him among the best defenders in basketball because of his pick-and-roll defense, but opposing centers enjoyed an 18.1 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com. Basically, his value depends heavily on the opponent, at least until he adds more strength and physicality to his post defense.
At 23, that's still not out of the question, and if he plays remotely as well as he did a year ago, his three-year, $9 million extension looks like an absolute steal.
JORDAN HAMILTON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ High-scoring wing with good size and deep shooting range.+ Natural scorer but in love with jump shot. Attitude also a question.+ Not much of a defender. Average athlete. Good rebounder.
AnalysisHamilton had a pretty solid rookie year, especially when you consider his almost comical inability to draw fouls. Let's start with the positives, like his ridiculous 14.0 rebound rate (coming mostly while playing the 2!), his 17.8 points per 40 minutes, his solid shooting stroke and his ability to finish on his rare forays to the rim.
But would it kill him to get to the line? Hamilton had a pathetic five three throw attempts the entire season, in 258 minutes. He also had a high turnover ratio for a guy who was mostly letting it rip off the catch, and defensively he was nothing to write home about.
But he can score, and if he keeps his head on straight and starts learning some tricks to get himself to the foul line, that and his rebounding will make him a solid rotation player. It's not entirely clear where the openings will come on a roster this packed, but Hamilton has earned the opportunity to get a lot more burn than he saw as a rookie.
ANTHONY RANDOLPH, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.310.31.717.9Stats are per 40 minutes| Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long, extremely thin lefty big man who dribbles very well for his size. + Excellent shot-blocker but barely tries on defense at times.+ Poor outside shooter and terrible decision-maker. Good finisher at the basket.
AnalysisRandolph shot 32.1 percent outside the basket area and 64.5 percent inside it. Where do you suppose he took more shots?
That, in a nutshell, is the Anthony Randolph experience, a whirlwind journey of obvious potential and equally clear shortcomings. After four years, nobody has quite resolved the question of whether this talent can be harnessed effectively; he's put up a solid PER every year and he's only 23 years old, yet his coaches can't wait to be rid of him and his teams tend to do better with him off the court.
One particular idea, that Randolph could be some kind of point forward, can be summarily dismissed. Randolph nearly had the worst pure point rating in basketball last season; the fact he chooses to dribble his own rebounds upcourt does not mean this is a good idea or that he can execute the proper decision once he gets there. The video of Randolph blowing off Ricky Rubio to dribble it up himself was a priceless synopsis of this mindset, one that will have to change.
And yet … if one could use him as a pick-and-roll center and have him diving to the hoop every play, he could do some serious damage. Randolph is long, active and can finish, and putting him in this role would theoretically prevent him from reenacting Antoine Walker's greatest hits.
Defensively, however, he has to try. Randolph can block shots and rebound but often loafs up and down the court and doesn't seem terribly engaged by the whole idea of guarding. Last year's numbers were a small enough sample that I don't totally trust them, but opposing bigs just eviscerated him (21.9 PER against power forwards, 25.5 against centers, according to 82games.com). He's in a running system in Denver that should play to his strengths, but this might be his last shot.
EVAN FOURNIER, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Slashing scorer with good size for a wing. Must improve perimeter shot.+ Only average athlete. Pretty good feel and passing skills. Iffy defensive player.
AnalysisFournier is an interesting fit on an NBA team because he has a scorer's mindset, but I'm not sure he has the talent to be a scorer at this level. He certainly likes to slash and probe for openings and might turn out to be one of those guys who can do it without elite athleticism. But if I were the Nuggets I'd be more comfortable letting him develop his skills as a starter in Europe rather than wasting on the bench in Denver.
QUINCY MILLER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long, slender combo forward who can shoot and score. Must add strength.+ Past knee injury a concern. Gets to line and makes free throws.
AnalysisI have no idea why this guy lasted until the second round. A top-10 recruit out of high school, Miller tore his ACL before going to Baylor and struggled at times during his freshman season. Here's what "struggling" looked like: He averaged double figures against one of the nation's toughest schedules as a freshman, had a high free throw rate and shot 81.6 percent from the stripe, and his other numbers were solid across the board.
Making no allowance for his recovery, my Draft Rater had him as the No. 5 prospect coming out this season. While the knee worried teams, it's also a source of hope -- he can be even better than he's shown already. Miller might be this year's DeJuan Blair -- a lottery talent consigned to the second round on overblown injury concerns, except his upside is a lot higher than Blair's.
JULYAN STONE, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long-armed wing with point guard's ball skills. Can handle and pass.+ Lousy outside shooter and just an average athlete. Good rebounder.+ Pretty good on ball defender.
AnalysisAn undrafted rookie, Stone didn't get much run at the end of Denver's bench but showed some signs in his limited action. In particular, his 8.3 assists per 40 minutes stand out, as does his phenomenal 44.1 assist ratio. The downside is that Stone can neither shoot nor score; he averaged just 8.0 points per 40 minutes and didn't fare much better in three D-League games with Idaho.
Stone is already 23, and while he has some tools, his inability to score is what torpedoed his draft stock. He's pretty good for an undrafted end-of-the-bench guy, but it's still not clear whether his pros and cons add up to a rotation player.
JRUE HOLIDAY, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.23.96.216.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
JASON RICHARDSON, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.24.92.513.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
EVAN TURNER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.48.44.413.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
SPENCER HAWES, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.811.73.916.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
ANDREW BYNUM, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER20.313.01.822.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
THADDEUS YOUNG, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.87.31.818.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
LAVOY ALLEN, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.110.42.312.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
DORELL WRIGHT, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.46.42.415.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
NICK YOUNG, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.53.11.412.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
KWAME BROWN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
ARNETT MOULTRIE, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
ROYAL IVEY, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 27 September 2012 05:32 (thirteen years ago)
whoops, didn't mean to post sixers again -- my bad
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 27 September 2012 05:33 (thirteen years ago)
magic
JAMEER NELSON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.04.27.114.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Small, strong pick-and-roll point guard who shoots very well off the dribble.+ Can take a hit and finish despite his size. Solid, steady passer and ball handler.+ Size an issue on defense. Only average lateral quickness. Strong leader.
AnalysisIt says a lot for Nelson's locker room role that a rebuilding Magic team tried desperately to get rid of everyone else but brought him back, at age 30, on a three-year deal. If you throw out the 2008-09 outlier, he's been consistent at his moderately productive level for half a decade now and become shockingly middle-of-the-road across the board. Nelson ranked between 21st and 37th among point guards in every category I track except free-throw rate, blocks and steals.
The low free throw rate is a surprise since Nelson goes to the basket a fair amount and has the frame to take contact; it may be an outlier since it's a pretty big drop from his previous seasons. As for the steals, Nelson was one of the league's most foul-prone point guards in 2010-11 but dialed it back considerably last season. As a consequence, however, his steal rate was a career low.
Nonetheless, Nelson's increasing vulnerability at the defensive end has to be a concern going forward. He's short, he's older and he won't have Dwight Howard around to have his back. Even last season, Synergy rated him far below the league average for point guards, and the Magic gave up 3.9 points more per 100 possessions when he played.
ARRON AFFLALO, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.53.73.013.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Tough wing with excellent outside shot and good handle. Average athlete.+ Clever offensive player. Much-improved finisher off the drive. Draws fouls.+ Well-regarded defender but metrics slipped badly last season. Will force shots.
AnalysisAfflalo changed his game dramatically last season, and I'm not sure all of it was for the good. First, the positive: He's really developed his offensive game. Two years ago Afflalo was strictly a catch-and-shoot guy, but now he can put it on the floor and create, and he still ranked in the top 10 at his position in both TS% and turnover rate.
While the 3-pointer remains his most deadly weapon (39.8 percent last season, 40.5 percent career), Afflalo also shot a stellar 68.0 percent at the rim and, more amazingly for somebody with limited hops and explosiveness, had one of the highest free throw rates at his position. My only quibble is that he seemed to break the offense at times to search out his own shots, but it's hard to argue with his efficiency.
Defensively, however, he regressed. Badly. Afflalo had a rep as a defensive stopper that helped him get a big contract the previous summer, but all his metrics last season were poor. Synergy rated him the single worst wing defender in basketball, and while his other metrics weren't that bad, none of them painted him as a net positive at the defensive end.
Afflalo again had an incredibly low rate of steals, which isn't an indictment in and of itself, but looking at lineup combinations, the Corey Brewer-Danilo Gallinari wing pair was vastly more effective (91.3 allowed points per 48 minutes) than any with Afflalo (97.3 with Gallinari, 96.8 with Rudy Fernandez, 100.9 with Brewer). Of the Nuggets' 10 most commonly used lineups, only one didn't involve Afflalo ... and that one was, by far, their most effective defensively.
Afflalo was overrated as a defender to start -- he's an average athlete and really needs to be competing all out to be a plus at this end. Last season he wasn't. He's still a valuable player because he's so efficient offensively, but I'd like him more if he rediscovered his defensive zeal.
HEDO TURKOGLU, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.54.65.311.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Classic "point forward" who thrives operating pick-and-roll going to the right. + Great handle and court vision for his size. Good set shooter but struggles on the move.+ Subpar defensive player. Weak rebounder for his size. Poor finisher in the paint.
AnalysisTurkoglu continues to slide as he gets into his mid-30s and last season he was barely a rotation-caliber player, let alone a starter. The silver lining is that most of the decline resulted from a career-low 35.3 percent mark on 3-pointers, a number that's likely to rebound closer to his previous norms around 40 percent.
Otherwise, Turkoglu kept up his point-forward routine and mostly preserved his shooting, scoring and assist numbers, but only at the cost of a turnover explosion. Turkoglu's 15.4 turnover rate was the second-worst among small forwards, and while his high assist rate (third at his position) was helpful, it resulted in a merely good pure point rating rather than a great one. Usually, that's his best skill.
Otherwise, Turkoglu doesn't score at a high rate, nor with high efficiency. He had a career-low rebound rate that ranked him among the league's worst small forwards, even though he's the tallest one in the league at 6-foot-10. And defensively, he's a liability given his slow feet and low-wattage motor.
GUSTAVO AYON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER11.79.62.715.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Fundamentally sound big man who excels moving without the ball.+ 'B' athlete, but a strong help defender with great instincts and reactions.+ Limited shooting range and ball skills. Not a creator but can finish.
AnalysisWhat a find this guy was. Rescued from the Spanish League by the New Orleans front office, Ayon almost immediately proved to be one of the Hornets' best players.
Offensively, he shot well in the basket area with the aid of one particularly sneaky move: On pick-and-rolls on the opposite side of the floor, he would duck in along the baseline while his man had his head turned, catch, pivot and make a reverse layup. He'd beat teams with this twice a game, boosting an otherwise anemic stat line offensively.
On defense, he was something of a coach's dream. Ayon ranked ninth among power forwards in blocks per minute, second in steals, and in the top third in rebound rate. He's tough, mobile, a solid flopper and big enough to play center in a pinch. He wasn't as strong on the ball as he was in help situations, as opposing bigs got their numbers against him, but he was a huge disruptor and helped on the boards to boot.
GLEN DAVIS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.88.81.413.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Short widebody in the frontcourt who defends the post well using leverage.+ Average shooter but likes midrange jumpers. Has poor elevation at the basket.+ Very nimble for his size. Love taking charges. Doesn't block shots or rebound.
AnalysisDavis played great in the playoffs, but the much larger sample of the regular season showed off the shortcomings of his approach. Feasting almost entirely on 17-foot jumpers, Davis simply wasn't accurate enough to make it work, shooting 32.6 percent on 2s outside of 10 feet and 39.6 percent on an unusually large chunk of shots from 3-9 feet. His shot selection also needs work, one of the other drags on his shooting percentage.
Davis generated a lot of shots with few turnovers this way, ranking 10th among centers in turnover rate, but the tradeoff wasn't worth it. Davis' 42.9 percent on 2-point shots was the fourth-worst among centers, and with no 3s and not many free throws, his true shooting percentage was also found wanting.
Defensively, Davis won't defend the rim, but he rebounded a bit better than in past seasons. He didn't take nearly as many charges as he did in Boston, but he still led the team on a per-minute basis despite no longer ranking among the league's leaders. His lack of length was a real problem at center, where opponents had a 20.2 player efficiency rating (PER) against him, according to 82games.com, but at power forward he generally did a solid job.
AL HARRINGTON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.88.62.014.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Spot-up shooting forward with 3-point range and ball skills. Average athlete.+ Poor defensive player overall but has mastered "pulling the chair" on post players.+ Subpar rebounder. Creates shots but gets tunnel vision and struggles to finish.
AnalysisHarrington had a surprisingly big season, likely saving himself from the amnesty process despite playing the tail end of the season on a torn meniscus. While not known for his defensive prowess, he improved on that end as well. Harrington played harder than at any previous stop and has become something of a master of "pulling the chair" against bigger post players. He also set a career high in rebound rate, and his defensive stats were solid across the board: Denver gave up 3.3 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court and opposing power forwards had just a 13.7 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
Combined with his usual scoring prowess -- better than a point every two minutes -- it made Harrington a valuable player, even if he scored with just moderate efficiency. He shot a lot of 3s but didn't shoot them particularly well (33.3 percent), and although he puts it on the floor a lot for a big he doesn't draw many fouls.
The drawback is that Harrington is a Fluke Rule player. As a reminder, this rule postulates that when a player age 28 or older has a PER above 14 and it increased by three or more points from the previous season, there is about a 94 percent chance the player's PER will drop the following season. On average, the drop is almost exactly three points.
To review, last year's Fluke Rule class included the rather staggering example of Lamar Odom, who had the greatest one-year PER drop in the last quarter century; Tony Parker, who blithely ignored the rule; and Tyson Chandler, who was at least as good as the year before. Nonetheless, among the group the trend held. Not with the resounding strength it showed a year earlier, perhaps, when all seven players obediently declined by 2.5 to 4.5 points, but it held:
Fluke Rule Players, 2010-11Player 2010-11 PER 2010-11 PER Change 2012-13 PER ChangeChris Wilcox 12.04 18.09 +6.05 12.46 -5.63Tyson Chandler 12.58 18.45 +5.87 18.66 +0.21Tony Allen 14.23 18.40 +4.17 15.70 -2.70Tony Parker 16.49 20.44 +3.95 22.04 +1.60Lamar Odom 15.98 19.50 +3.53 9.26 -10.24Brad Miller 12.96 16.37 +3.41 10.71 -5.66Chris Andersen 15.88 19.03 +3.15 18.97 -0.06Average 14.31 18.61 +4.30 15.40 -3.20Similarly, this season's cast can also expect a drop in production. Along with Harrington, two others join him in the fairly limited Fluke Rule role call for 2011-12:
Fluke Rule Players, 2011-12Player 2010-11 PER 2011-12 PER ChangeAl Harrington 12.31 15.39 +3.08Jarrett Jack 14.20 17.97 +3.77Anderson Varejao 15.21 18.93 +3.72Average 13.91 17.43 +3.52Harrington had previously attained this PER level and Jack was a 28-year-old last season, each of which are factors that can give a player slightly better odds of avoiding a regression. None of the three players saw the extreme spikes that, say, Chris Wilcox did a year earlier. Nonetheless, each of these three players is a strong bet for decline in 2012-13.
J.J. REDICK, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.03.33.614.3Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Deep-shooting wing who likes to use shot fakes to attack and draw fouls.+ Solid defensive player. Undersized but good fundamentals. Poor rebounder.+ Excellent ball handler and entry passer. Quick but lacks explosiveness.
AnalysisOne of the few bright spots in Orlando's Dwightmare was the career year by Redick. He shot a career-high 41.8 percent on 3s while taking nearly half his attempts from out there and shot a sizzling 91.1 percent from the line. Surprisingly for a small 3-point specialist, he also got to the line at a high rate for a shooting guard. As a result, he was Orlando's third-best per-minute scorer after Dwight Howard and Ryan Anderson.
The real differentiator for Redick has been his ballhandling. At this point he's almost a point guard, ranking fifth among shooting guards in pure point rating while sporting one of the lowest turnover rates at his position. He can run pick-and-rolls going to his right hand, but it's more to pass than score, as he's not a great finisher and struggles getting his jumper away off the dribble.
Defensively, Redick is a solid team defender who moves his feet, but his lack of size and athleticism make it problematic for him to challenge shots. However, he has no disruptive ability at all, sporting the second lowest steals rate in the league. His defensive metrics rate him average to below-average, but with his offense that's all he needs.
NIKOLA VUCEVIC, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.012.61.914.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Seven-footer with soft touch and deep shooting range. Hangs out on the perimeter.+ Good rebounder but not a great athlete. Mediocre defender who fouls too much.+ Won't turn it over but never draws fouls. Decent strength but not overtly physical.
AnalysisVucevic had a very good start to his rookie season before his shots stopped finding the net, and by the end of the playoffs he was out of the rotation entirely. The key stat for Vucevic is his brutal 46.2 TS%; only six centers were worse. For an offensive-minded player, this was a bit of a disaster.
The problem for Vucevic is that he shot a lot of jumpers and mostly missed them. He made only 35.7 percent outside 10 feet, and nearly half his shots came from out there. With so much pick-and-pop business, he rarely got to the line, ranking dead last among centers in free throw rate. The lone positive was that he never turned the ball over, as he was fourth among centers in turnover rate.
Vucevic surprised on the boards, where he was in the top third of centers, and defensively he wasn't bad for a rookie -- with some experience and more physicality he should be decent. He had a high foul rate, however, and he's not a shot-blocker.
Sum it up and it appears the Sixers inadvertently drafted the second coming of Spencer Hawes.
ANDREW NICHOLSON, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long forward who can shoot and score. Good shot-blocker and rebounder.+ Poor ball handler. Old for a first-round pick. Big, soft hands. 'B' athlete.
AnalysisNicholson has drawn comparisons to David West because of his combination of size and shooting ability. He made 59 percent of his 2s, 78 percent of his free throws and 43 percent of his 3s as a senior at St. Bonaventure -- awesome numbers for a big man. He also added solid rebounding and shot-blocking stats, although like West he's not an elite athlete.
Where the West comparison breaks down is with his ballhandling. Nicholson had among the worst pure point ratings of any 2012 draft prospect, while West is among the best ballhandling bigs in the NBA. For that reason, Nicholson's remit is likely more limited to pick-and-pop scoring than to attacking opponents off the bounce.
Nicholson, who turns 23 in December, is also old for a first-rounder and suspect defensively. He's likely to contribute immediately with his pick-and-pop game, but the other stuff is an open question.
MOE HARKLESS, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long, athletic, quick combo forward who can run the floor and jump.+ Needs more strength and a better motor. Mediocre outside shooter.
AnalysisThe Al-Farouq Aminu of this year's draft, Harkless lured the Sixers, and then the Magic, with his athleticism and length despite the clear holes remaining in his game. The best lines in his résumé are his high rates of blocks and steals, which indicate that his length could be a real asset on defense if he could add strength and compete more.
Harkless is only 19, and rebounded decently as a collegian given his size disadvantage. Nonetheless, it's going to be harder for him to round out his skills to be a good pro if he isn't capable of playing regularly, and I'm not sure he's good enough to crack a rotation right now. His offensive metrics seem well behind the curve.
JOSH McROBERTS, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.89.43.011.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Quick-leaping lefty power forward with explosive hops and great court vision.+ Mediocre shooter but will fire set shot if left open. Likes to dribble out rebounds.+ Turnover-prone. Below-average defender. Needs to improve strength, quickness.
AnalysisMcRoberts looked like a solid pickup by the Lakers before proving otherwise with a miserable season that culminated in the indignity of losing his minutes to Troy Murphy. Unbelievably, it was made for defensive purposes. Opposing power forwards had an 18.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and L.A. allowed 7.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the court (his Synergy numbers were poor as well). About the only thing he ended up doing capably was taking hard fouls.
McRoberts might have survived this had he produced as he did in Indiana, but his offensive numbers drastically tailed off as well. For whatever reason he completely stopped shooting, averaging just 7.7 points per 40 minutes -- the lowest scoring rate among the league's 70 power forwards. His percentages weren't that bad, but he was mostly idle, ranking among the bottom three power forwards in usage rate.
McRoberts continued to be an adventuresome passer, for both good and bad -- he was in the top seven at his position both assist and turnover rate -- but on balance he landed eighth at his position in pure point rating. He's only 25 and there's no reason he should have dropped off so dramatically, so the chance of recovery certainly is there.
QUENTIN RICHARDSON, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER9.76.21.88.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Physical wing who mostly spots up for 3s on offense. Weak ball handler.+ Middling accuracy from outside. Low release point. Can't jump anymore.+ Tough and takes charges, but lacks great mobility on defense.
AnalysisThe fact Richardson stayed in the Magic rotation was all you needed to know about Orlando's shaky wing depth. He shouldn't be getting minutes anymore. While Richardson is tough and a solid team defender, he can't move. Even in his newfound specialty of defense -- one forced by the fact that none of the other wings could do it -- he was average at best. The one area he handled well was checking bigger, physical 3s that like to post up.
That would have been valuable if he'd provided some offense, but he kills his own team at this end. In his old age Richardson has become a spot-up 3-point shooter who doesn't shoot particularly well, with a 34.7 percent success rate from downtown. While that's an upgrade on the 28.8 percent from the previous season, it doesn't cut the mustard for a corner specialist. Richardson averaged only 9.9 points per 40 minutes, and once again had an unusually high turnover ratio for a spot-up shooter.
KYLE O'QUINN, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Strong, long-armed big man who plays hard, draws fouls and makes free throws.+ Undersized for a 5. Game lacks refinement. Not a great athlete. Decent shooter.
AnalysisAn insurance big who likely will stick around the league because he's wide and willing to do the dirty work, O'Quinn didn't play against great competition in college but made a name for himself in Norfolk State's first-round NCAA tournament upset of Missouri.
The best line on his résumé is the free throw column, as he both drew fouls in bunches with his physicality and made 69.6 percent and 76.2 percent in his last two seasons. Nonetheless, that may prove much harder in the NBA than in the MEAC, and he doesn't have a single overwhelming skill that makes him a sure thing to stick.
CHRISTIAN EYENGA, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Pogo-jumping project wingman who needs more reps to refine his raw game+ Makes spectacular shot blocks and dunks but has few ball skills. + Must improve defensive fundamentals and add strength. Decent shooter.
AnalysisA throw-in to last season's Ramon Sessions trade, Eyenga played only seven NBA games last season with the Lakers and was rerouted to Orlando in the offseason.
Eyenga also played 510 minutes in the D-League, and the results weren't encouraging. His PER was just 11.5, according to basketball-reference.com. He shot 25.9 percent on 3s and 54.5 percent from the line, and for an athletic player his athleticism markers -- rebounds, blocks and steals -- all were really ordinary. He didn't draw fouls at a high rate either. About the best thing he did was shoot fairly well on 2-point shots.
Eyenga is only 23 and had very little game experience before coming to the league. The best thing for him may be to play in the D-League full-time and work on becoming a spot-up-shooting defensive stopper. He desperately needs the game reps that come with a full season of regular play, and the past two campaigns (with a lockout in between) weren't particularly helpful in that regard.
ISH SMITH, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Tiny speedster who can push the tempo and break down the defense.+ Poor shooter. Needs to improve decisions and distribution from the point.+ Size leaves him vulnerable defensively. Needs to add strength to compensate.
AnalysisSmith played 26 games for Orlando and Golden State, and things went better than in his rocky rookie campaign. Smith created more plays, slashed his turnover rate and proved surprisingly helpful on the glass.
Nonetheless, one huge weakness remains: He can't shoot. Smith shot only 38.3 percent from the floor, and finished the season with an abysmal 42.2 TS%. Granted, it was a small sample, but he only made one 3-pointer and earned only eight free throw attempts. Given those parameters, he'd need to shoot 50 percent from the floor to warrant much of a role.
Right now Smith is miles away from that. While he's speedy, he struggles to finish at the rim before defenses close the holes he's trying to exploit, and he doesn't see the court particularly well. He might be best off going overseas for a year or two and getting a ton of game reps to improve his offensive feel, but it appears he'll be back in Orlando as a third point guard.
E'TWAUN MOORE, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Slim combo guard who likes to go left. Not a true point guard.+ Tough and competitive, but a B athlete and just an average shooter.
AnalysisMoore proved expendable when the Celtics had a chance to get Courtney Lee, but he had shown enough promise as a defensive-minded combo guard that Boston likely would have kept him otherwise.
The biggest issue working against him is his shot chart: 85 jumpers, 12 shots at the basket and just seven free throw attempts. With a ratio like that he needs to be a knockdown shooter, and it's not clear if he's capable of it. Moore was also too turnover-prone for a catch-and-shoot guy, and he needs to take more 3s and fewer 2s.
If he can make himself passable offensively, he's tough enough defensively to keep himself in the league. While he's short and slim for a 2, he would seem to match up well against the profusion of combo guards around the league, especially in the second unit. Orlando took a low-risk flier that he can accomplish that.
JUSTIN HARPER, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Pick-and-pop big man who mostly hangs out at the 3-point line. Quick release.+ Soft player who shies from contact and doesn't rebound. Questionable motor.
AnalysisHarper played 84 largely forgettable minutes for the parent club, in which he reinforced everybody's worst fears about him by earning one free throw attempt. Surprisingly, he didn't get any time in the D-League, so that's all the info we have to work with. Not an encouraging start.
mavs
DARREN COLLISON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.53.96.114.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Water bug point guard with accurate shot, but rarely takes 3s. Great free throw shooter.+ Can get to the rim and finish. Pushes tempo but doesn't distribute; thinks shoot first.+ Moves well laterally but has a tiny build. Rarely fouls or gets steals.
AnalysisCollison had a career-high assist ratio and a career-low turnover ratio last season, so he's getting a bit better at this point guard thing. That said, it's not good enough to make him a long-term solution as a starter. There are just too many times he overdribbles, doesn't see the opening, or is too small to get the ball there, and as a result Collison averaged just 6.1 assists per 40 minutes despite being surrounded by some of the league's best catch-and-shoot weapons in Indiana. He also has an odd affinity for dribbling away from the screen in pick-and-rolls; when he does stick with the play he has trouble running his man into the screen.
Collison could deal with a bit more of a catch-and-shoot game himself. He's a good shooter -- 36.3 percent career on 3s and 85.3 percent at the free throw line -- but annually shoots 3s as rarely as any point guard. As a result, he suffers from a ho-hum true shooting percentage even though he draws fouls and his zone-by-zone shot chart looks great.
Defensively, he struggles against bigger guards but has good quickness. Overall, point guards had a 13.6 player efficiency rating (PER) against him, according to 82games.com, and the Pacers' results didn't change at all with him on the court. Thus, the horrifying plus-minus numbers he had in 2010-11 were apparently a fluke. Collison did have an oddly low steals rate for a quick guard, however, and could probably be a bit more aggressive at this end.
DELONTE WEST, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.03.85.214.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Quick, injury-prone lefty combo guard. Good midrange shooter. Prefers wing. + Undersized, but a good defensive player. Moves feet well, good intensity.+ Quick leaper. Prone to turnovers. Bipolar illness an off-court issue.
AnalysisWest amped up his offensive game in Dallas and became an excellent backcourt partner for Jason Terry in particular, distributing on offense and cross-matching on defense to cover each other's shortcomings. The Mavs knew he could defend, but he scored more than expected -- a career-best 15.9 points per 40 minutes -- without any decline in efficiency. In particular, his midrange jumper (45.3 percent from 10-23 feet) proved deadly.
West doesn't shoot 3s or draw fouls in large quantities, so he needs to shoot that well from midrange to have much offensive value. He does provide some secondary benefit with his ballhanding. West isn't quite a true point guard and prefers playing the wing, but he's comfortable enough up top to initiate offense. He may find a similar role alongside Rodrigue Beaubois that he had with Terry last season.
Defensively, West is still quite good. He turns 30 in December and is short for a 2, but opponents scored 3.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court last season, and his Synergy grades were very solid, too.
Once again, however, his availability was a major issue. West missed at least 18 games for a fifth straight season (22 this time) and has never played more than 71 in a campaign; for his career he averages just 54 games a season. He'll likely be solid when he's out there, but that won't be a regular thing.
SHAWN MARION, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.48.82.713.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Quick-leaping combo forward who is very effective on short-range shots.+ Bizarre, low shot release. Has stopped taking 3s. Excellent quickness for his size.+ Can post up smaller wings. Good rebounder. Runs the floor and handles the ball well.
AnalysisDallas spent much of the season pumping up Marion for defensive honors, but you'd have a hard time proving his impact. The Mavs gave up more points with him on the court and didn't defend small forwards particularly well, and while Marion got positive grades from Synergy, he was hardly elite in this respect. That said, Marion was a difficult player to assess last season because he so often cross-matched to protect Jason Kidd. While it's impressive that a 6-foot-7 forward could competently line up against, say, Tony Parker, the case for him as an elite defender seems strained.
Offensively, the evidence is more clear: Marion had a bad season. His career-low 48.8 TS% made him a drag on the Dallas attack. His meal ticket has long been his ability to get layups and dunks, and short floaters and runners, but last season, he shot a pedestrian 51.1 percent inside 10 feet as he relied a lot more on the runners and floaters. Meanwhile, he basically stopped drawing fouls, earning just 93 freebies. He doesn't shoot 3s either, so overall, only one small forward had a worse secondary percentage.
What saved Marion's PER was a monstrous rebound rate (13.6) that ranked first among small forwards. He also improved his assist and turnover numbers from the previous season, and his assist ratio was a career-best.
DIRK NOWITZKI, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER23.78.02.620.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Nimble 7-footer with a devastating midrange jumper and unblockable fadeaway.+ Moves well on defense but lacks strength. Not a leaper. + Great going left and quickly pulling up for shot. Rarely turns the ball over.
AnalysisNowitzki struggled early in the season and even took some time off to work on conditioning, but by season's end, he was pretty much his old self -- he averaged 23.6 points and shot 43.4 percent on 3s after the All-Star break. Nonetheless, as a whole his numbers were his worst in more than a decade, with his rates of points, rebounds and assists all taking a step back and his shooting percentages taking a worse dip.
Nowitzki's stock in trade is turning the usual rules of offense on their head. As I wrote a year ago, for every other player in every other league a long 2 is not a desirable shot. Nowitzki shoots them so well that it is. He made 50.3 percent beyond 16 feet last season, the second-best figure in the league, and that opens up everything else. Defenses foul and double him because of it, making him a threat in several other ways, especially because he rarely turns the ball over despite all the attention.
This is a roundabout way of saying I don't expect Nowitzki to decline much, if at all, despite being 34 this season. He was good in the latter half of last season, and his two differentiating skills -- being 7 feet tall and shooting 18-footers like they're layups -- won't diminish with age.
Size and shooting ability are the two biggest factors in career longevity, and while Nowitzki is actually slightly taller than ideal on this score (above 6-11, the cost in injury risk outweighs the benefit in height), he'll be able to keep raining jumpers for as long as his knees can keep him upright. That figures to be a while longer yet.
CHRIS KAMAN, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.011.02.714.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Avid Bill Simmons reader with good footwork in low post and wide base.+ Ambidextrous finisher in the paint who has 18-foot range. Sloppy ball handler.+ Blocks shots despite short arms, average hops. Good post defender. Injury-prone.
AnalysisKaman was a high-usage go-to guy for the Hornets because he had to be, but his efficiency numbers strained under that burden. He's never been particularly efficient and last season he had by far the lowest TS% of his career (47.8). This came even though his midrange game became a real weapon -- he shot 44.6 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet and at times came off pin-downs at the free throw line -- because he struggled to score in the post against constant double teams. Also, his free throw rate has sank like a stone the past two seasons, as he has shot more jumpers.
Worst Shooting At Rim, Bigs, 2011-12Player Team FG%Marcus Camby Por/Hou 49.3Chris Kaman NO 52.6Marreese Speights Mem 54.7Brandon Bass Bos 55.6Zaza Pachulia Atl 55.8Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.comThe most glaring indicator, however, comes in his shooting marks at the rim. Kaman had the worst percentage of any player with at least 150 attempts (Marcus Camby technically was a few attempts short; see his player comment for more), barely converting half his tries in an area where most 7-footers make close to two-thirds.
The other problem for Kaman is that he can't handle the ball, sporting a relatively high turnover ratio for a center even with all the catch-and-shoot jumpers. This is nothing new, and it's why I've never been a fan of feeding him in the post. Unless he has a major mismatch, Kaman just can't score efficiently enough to offset the turnovers. As a floor spacer in Dallas, on the other hand, he may cause some serious problems.
Defensively, Kaman isn't the most mobile or athletic guy, but he has real value because he is big, controls the glass and has great timing on blocks. He ranked in the top third of centers in blocks and his adjusted plus-minus numbers consistently rate him as a positive at this end.
O.J. MAYO, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.64.53.514.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Combo guard with a strong outside jumper. Excels coming off pin-downs and curls.+ Good handle but lacks the jets to get in the paint consistently. Can play point in a pinch.+ Struggles on defense: Short for a 2, slow for a 1. Effective guarding big PGs.
AnalysisIt's been four years, and Mayo has hardly improved since his first day in Memphis -- in particular, the outside shooting stroke that seemed so promising his rookie year has failed to progress. Mayo's 3-point and free throw marks have been on a steady southward trajectory since his rookie season, which is troubling because his best hope of becoming a star was as a Reggie Miller-type shooter.
That's not happening -- he's at 37.5 percent on his career for 3s and doesn't shoot any better on long 2s -- so what we're left with is a decent enough scoring guard but one that isn't necessarily a starter. Mayo scores at a decent clip because he has a good handle and feel for getting to the basket, but he's not a great athlete and doesn't have an explosive first step.
Additionally, efforts to play him at the point haven't borne much fruit. While he can handle the ball, he lacks a distributor's instincts and really struggles to maneuver when quick guards pressure his dribble. According to 82games.com, his turnover ratio nearly doubled when he played the point; the main benefit was a huge uptick in free throws because he could bully smaller guards. The only way he could play point regularly would be in a system that lets other players do much of the ballhandling and mainly required him to spot up -- the Lakers in the Triangle years, for example.
Mayo isn't wowing anybody with his defense either, although there is one niche where he has proved effective: He does solid work against bigger 1s like Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose, and often took that assignment to spare the smaller Mike Conley a beating. Mayo also had strong rates of blocks and steals and a solid rebound rate, so at least he's active. But he struggles in size matchups at the 2 and picks up fouls easily, and his effort level still isn't as consistent as it could be.
ELTON BRAND, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.59.22.115.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Slow-footed big man with a devastating midrange jump shot off the pick-and-pop.+ Has lost speed and athleticism. Decent handle for his size. Struggles to finish in the paint.+ Strong, smart team defender but overmatched against good post scorers.
AnalysisSubjectively, Brand lost more zip last season than the stats show -- he looked a bit tired and heavy all season, and he failed to make much of an impact in the playoffs. Statistically, however, you'd have a hard time proving it. Brand again put up a very solid PER and his defensive stats remain world class.
Brand may be the most underrated player in the league in this regard. He had the best Synergy grade on the Sixers, the league's No. 3 team in defensive efficiency, and among the best overall at his position. Philly gave up 2.8 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, and he was fifth among power forwards in blocks per minute and 17th in steals. While he's undersized and he struggles against long jump shooters (like, say, Kevin Garnett, his foe in the second round of the playoffs), he was extremely effective in every other situation.
Offensively, Brand's torrid midrange shooting of a season earlier cooled off some, as he made "only" 44.7 percent of his jumpers beyond 10 feet. Those attempts comprised nearly two-thirds of his shots, as he rarely posts up anymore and when he does it's for a turnaround jumper. Because of that his free throw rate was among the lowest at his position, but his assist and turnovers were well above the league norm for power forwards, and overall he was a helpful offensive player.
BRANDAN WRIGHT, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.28.20.719.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long lefty with accurate short-range shot. Good finisher but no post game.+ Big and talented, but hugely injury-prone. Motivation has been questioned.+ Lacks strength, poor rebounder. Blocks shots but overall defense needs work.
AnalysisWright stayed healthy for the first time in his career and became perhaps the league's best free-agent signing per dollar as a result. With his length and soft touch, Wright has always been able to convert near the rim and did so again, hitting 61.8 percent from the floor last season -- including an impressive 76.1 percent at the rim -- and pumping in 17.2 points per 40 minutes. Wright finished third among centers in TS%, while sporting the second-lowest turnover ratio. That's a tough combo to beat.
Dallas also figured out some ways to hide Wright on defense, using him in zones or situations when the opponent didn't have a physical post player. Nonetheless, he still needs a lot of work here. He blocks shots in bunches, sending back 3.19 per 40 minutes to rank fourth among centers last season, but his lack of physicality is a major negative.
He also was one of only two players to play at least 500 minutes without drawing an offensive foul (Terrence Williams was the other). Meanwhile, opposing centers had a 20.7 PER with Wright on the court, according to 82games.com, and he was 58th out of 63 centers in rebound rate.
RODRIGUE BEAUBOIS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.64.96.116.7Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Speedy guard who can score. Penetrates but doesn't see the court well.+ Gets out of control on drives. Inconsistent shooter. Good rebounder for his size. + Active, athletic defender but needs to improve strength and fundamentals.
AnalysisBeaubois intrigued everybody with an impressive rookie year but has gone sideways since, doing just enough to stay relevant but not quite enough to give his career any traction. The problem starts with his being a classic "2 in a 1's body" -- unless he can improve his passing numbers some more; last season he was 47th among point guards in pure point rating.
Beaubois can score, but he's not efficient enough. Last season he averaged 16.4 points per 40 minutes, which was higher than his previous two, but he neither makes 3s nor draws fouls, resulting in subpar true shooting percentages. Last season Beaubois shot 28.8 percent on 3s and 36.2 percent on long 2s, and the season before wasn't any better. Meanwhile, he was in the bottom third of point guards in free throw rate.
The tantalizing part is that if he did either of these things -- create for teammates or convert his own shots -- just a little bit better, he'd have some real value. But right now he's just another low-efficiency creator.
Whether he can become more is an open question. His instincts as a point guard aren't great, I'm not sure his left hand is up to snuff, and while I wouldn't call his jumper broken it's not exactly fluid either.
Defensively it's a similar story. Beaubois is an impressive athlete who led all point guards in blocks per minute and ranked fourth in rebound rate, but his overall results weren't that great. He was overmatched size-wise when asked to guard 2s, and his plus-minus and Synergy numbers were poor.
VINCE CARTER, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.85.13.713.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Formerly athletic, high-flying guard who has lost considerable burst and lift.+ Looks heavy. Good outside shooter off the catch. Tends to shy away from contact.+ Underrated passer. Good handle. Underrated defender with good size.
AnalysisCarter had a good start to the season, making one wonder if his poor performance in Phoenix was an outlier. But as the season wore on, his production declined considerably, to the point that it was a minor upset when the Mavs picked up the option on the final two years of his contract.
Carter shot only 38.3 percent after the break, including 29.8 percent on 3s. With the jumper not falling, it exposed the other factors in his decline. He looked heavy and his lift only periodically showed up, and he can't create much offense for himself anymore. Nonetheless, he was a solid offensive player for the season as a whole, ranking in the top third of shooting guards in pure point rating and the top half in both TS% and scoring rate.
Defensively, he's better than you think. Synergy rated Carter the Mavs' top defender and opposing shooting guards had just a 10.1 PER against him, according to 82games.com. The Mavs also gave up 4.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court. While these numbers overstate Carter's case, his defensive metrics have been very solid for several years. The greater worry is how long that will continue to be the case.
DAHNTAY JONES, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.34.42.510.3Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Athletic wing with chops to be defensive stopper. Strong, good size.+ Strong driver, especially to his right, who draws fouls. Highly turnover-prone. + Shaky shooter with a low release point. Too focused on offense and scoring.
AnalysisJones regressed badly on the court and the Pacers worried about his locker room influence off it, resulting in Jones being largely decommissioned in the playoffs and donated to the Mavs afterward.
Jones often is too aggressive for his own good at both ends. He reined it in at the offensive end a bit, using his quick first step to again draw fouls at a high rate (10th among small forwards) and cutting down his turnovers and shots. Alas, Jones still shoots too many in-between shots he can't make (31-for-117 between the basket and the 3-point line) and rarely passes once he starts dribbling.
Defensively, Jones fouled like a madman, posting the fourth-highest rate among small forwards, but otherwise did a respectable job at both wing positions. As always, he could be better in this role if he focused on it more and on scoring less.
At 31, he still has something to offer if he's content with a defense-and-3s role. Jones made 42.9 percent of his triples last season, and while that's an outlier, he can make corner 3s. Meanwhile, he has always had defensive talent with his strength, leaping and lateral quickness.
DOMINIQUE JONES, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 minutes last season) | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, strong wing who rebounds very well for his size. Good passer.+ Quick and can get to the basket, but outside shot needs improvement.+ Physical player but a "B" athlete. Unclear what offensive role he can fill.
AnalysisWell, what is he? Jones has an NBA body and some NBA skills, but the impasse between himself and playing time is the lack of a clear role. Jones is at his best driving to the rim and either drawing fouls or kicking to teammates, averaging better than a free throw for every two field goal attempts last season and a whopping 6.3 assists per 40 minutes. He also rebounds very well for his size, and if he became a regular player would likely compile at least a few triple-doubles.
Unfortunately, he can't shoot, and he's not a good enough creator to offset that. He's at 36.4 percent from the floor for his career with just one made 3-pointer in two seasons. Last season he shot 9-for-42 outside the charge circle. Shooting numbers like that simply won't cut it.
He doesn't need to shoot like Peja Stojakovic to carve out a role, especially on a team like this one that needs creators more than shooters. But he has to make defenses respect his shot a bit to open up his driving game and let him fill a niche as a creating slasher.
JARED CUNNINGHAM, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 minutes last season) | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Athletic wing who can get to the basket and draw fouls. Average shooter. Fast hands.+ Undersized for a wing, especially strength-wise, and lacks the handle to play the point.
AnalysisCunningham's quickness shows through in his numbers -- he had one of the highest free throw rates and highest steal rates of any 2012 draft prospect. His athletic slashing should benefit a Dallas team that devolved into a 2-point jump-shooting bore-nanza last season, and the fast hands on D may be of use in the Mavs' myriad zones.
Nonetheless, there are holes to be mended in the rest of his game. He has to take better care of the ball and find more teammates on his forays to the rim, and he needs to add strength to avoid beatings on postups defensively. He's old for a rookie at 21, but Dallas could use an energizer like this.
BERNARD JAMES, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/A(Did not play 500 minutes last season) | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Athletic big man who can block shots and rebound. Short-range finisher.+ Lacks great offensive skills. Is 27 years old. Tweener between 4 and 5.
AnalysisJames spent six years in the Air Force and served in Iraq before playing at Florida State, and is finally making the NBA at 27. But he rates as a dirty-work role player at best in the pros. Dallas took him for his ability to help immediately in the frontcourt, but he lacks ideal height for a center at 6-foot-10, 230 pounds, and he doesn't have the offensive skills to play the 4 regularly.
JAE CROWDER, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/AStats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Phenomenal defensive player who must move from frontcourt to wing.+ Classic "energy" guy: Shaky skills but a great motor. Excellent rebounder.
AnalysisCrowder moves into a good situation with Dallas, where he'll be asked to be a defensive tornado off the bench and knock down a perimeter shot or two. Crowder played the 4 in college but will have to move to the wing as a pro given his size, and there's a real question to whether his offensive skills can survive the transition.
But if he can just provide half-decent offense, his D will do the rest. Crowder had an insanely high rate of steals for a frontcourt player and plays with tremendous fire. That alone should make him a worthwhile bench player, albeit one with a low ceiling.
knicks
RAYMOND FELTON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER14.43.37.913.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Stocky point guard who pushes the pace. Put on weight and lost a step.+ Passable outside shooter who can play off the ball. Solid defender but a bit short.+ Mediocre finisher who struggled with turnovers. Decent passer.
AnalysisStatistically, Felton's 2011-12 season doesn't look nearly as bad as Blazers fans made it out to be, but that's partly because he played his best after Portland's season was already circling the drain. Felton proved far more turnover-prone and combustible than originally advertised, with locals coining the term "Feltdown" to describe his proclivity for late-game turnovers. For the season he ranked 52nd among point guards in turnover ratio, offsetting any positives from his solid assist ratio.
Moreover, Felton came in with a rep as Mr. Sunshine in the locker room, but became one of the leaders in the team's mutiny against Nate McMillan. Showing up out of shape -- a growing concern in recent seasons as his belly has begun bulging -- he played terribly in the season's first half, shooting 37.6 percent overall and 24.8 percent on 3s before the All-Star break.
After that he put up normal Felton numbers, but his wayward 3-point shooting for the season stands out as a key reason for his decline. Felton made just 30.5 percent after hitting in the high 30s the previous two seasons; ironically, one of the reasons for the Blazers swapping out Andre Miller for him was the idea that he could space the floor better.
Defensively, Felton graded out solidly. Portland guarded much better with him on the court, but his other data wasn't nearly as strong. Subjectively, he wasn't as effective as he'd been in Charlotte but was still a league-average player at this end.
Overall, one suspects Felton's 3-point numbers will regress to the mean, but the bigger concern is his conditioning. If he gets in shape there's no reason he can't have a few more decent seasons, and he may prove to be a decent value signing for New York. Nonetheless, at this point he seems a much better fit as a backup than a starter.
JASON KIDD, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER8.35.66.811.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, savvy point guard who rebounds very well. Great open-court passer.+ Struggles to check quick guards, but excels at defending wings and playing team defense.+ Makes careless turnovers. Shoots spot-up 3s but is a non-factor in the half-court offense.
AnalysisFun fact: Kidd drew Dallas' first free throw attempts of the season when he got fouled shooting a 3 in the opener against Miami. He proceeded to earn 25 free throw attempts the rest of the season. Ugh.
While it's amazing that he can compete at this level, at the league's fastest position, at age 39, Kidd has become a backup-caliber player. It's not clear to me why the Knicks were so smitten that he got three guaranteed years.
Offensively, he's become a spot-up shooter and little else in the half court. Although announcers rightly discuss how he's improved in this area, he's still not much of a shooter: He's made 35.4 percent and 34 percent of his 3s the past two seasons. That's about a wrap for his scoring game; more than four-fifths of his shots were 3s last season, placing him first by a mile among point guards and third in the NBA overall (see chart).
Greatest percentage of shot attempts from 3, 2011-12Player Team 3A/FGADeShawn Stevenson NJ 84.3Steve Novak NY 83.7Jason Kidd Dal 81.7Daequan Cook OKC 77.0James Jones Mia 76.0Min. 500 minutesKidd took only 46 2-point shots in 48 games and tried a mere 10 at the rim. In a related story, he had only 28 free throw attempts all season. Three of those were on technical fouls and two others were from opponents fouling intentionally.
Defensively, however, Kidd remains effective as long as he can guard the right types of players (i.e., not quick ones). Typically he works best paired with a quick shooting guard who can cross-match with him; Iman Shumpert should be perfect for this role if he recovers fully from his knee injury, but looking at the Knicks' current roster, Kidd may be left exposed at times by having to check quick point guards himself. If so, his solid defensive metrics from last season will take a turn south.
Nonetheless, his instincts for the ball remain amazing and have diminished little with age. Kidd was sixth among point guards in steals per minute and second in rebound rate.
CARMELO ANTHONY, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER26.47.43.820.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Dominant power forward masquerading as a 3. Elite scorer with great handle.+ Average shooter who will force it. Can overpower smaller wings on the block.+ Decent passer but a lethargic defender, especially on the wing. Excellent rebounder.
AnalysisThe move to New York pretty much guaranteed that Anthony would become the most overrated player in basketball, and folks haven't disappointed me on that front. Routinely referred to as a superstar despite the pesky fact that his teams don't improve all that much with him on the court, Anthony is better described as an extreme volume scorer. Last season he averaged a staggering 26.5 points per 40 minutes, but with a league-average true shooting percentage, ordinary assist and turnover numbers, and little to no defense. It's hard to conclude that he made a huge impact on New York's bottom line.
The big problem for Melo is that he likes long 2s, but long 2s don't like him. He made only 36.9 percent of his 2s from 10 feet and beyond, but attempted nearly eight a game. He also shot just 30.5 percent on 3s. Going to the cup it's a different story; Anthony had the eighth-best free throw rate among small forwards and makes his free throws. But he had two jump shots for every attempt at the rim.
The exception was when he played as a power forward, in which case he just destroyed people. Bigger defenders can't keep up with him on the dribble and struggle chasing him around the perimeter; according to 82games.com, Anthony had a PER of 29.5 as a 4 and just 17.3 as a 3 last season.
His splits from other seasons aren't quite as dramatic, but he certainly isn't worse as a 4; between the league's trend toward smaller and faster lineups and Anthony being a huge 3 who isn't getting any younger, it seems an obvious progression. He already rebounds like a power forward, ranking eighth among small forwards in rebound rate.
Playing the 4 may also diminish Anthony's defensive problems. He openly loafs on the perimeter and isn't all that quick laterally to start, but relishes physical play and has no problem banging against bigger players. New York gave up 4.2 points per 100 possessions more with Anthony on the court last season, which is another reason he just doesn't move the needle that much as a small forward. As a floor-spacing 4 with an elite defender behind him, perhaps he could finally deliver production that's at least somewhat close to his exalted reputation.
AMARE STOUDEMIRE, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.39.41.617.4Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Scoring big man who has lost considerable explosiveness due to knee injuries.+ Good midrange shooter; uses the threat to set up his drives. Rarely passes off the dribble.+ Low-effort defender, particularly at the 4. Stops guarding when he picks up fouls.
AnalysisStoudemire was still a fairly useful player last season, but it was impossible to watch him and not think instead of what he was a year or two earlier. That explosive first step to his right? Gone. Utterly, irretrievably, gone.
What's interesting is that it didn't impact his stats the way you'd expect. Stoudemire took nearly as many shots at the rim as he had previously and converted a strong 69.7 percent of them. Instead, the issue is that opponents now feel free to crowd his jumper. He declined to 34.5 percent on long 2s last season, en route to a career-low 48.3 percent mark from the field. Moreover, with more arms around him, his ballhandling numbers went completely to pot; Stoudemire ranked 67th out of 70 power forwards in pure point rating. All told, he lost more than six points off his 40-minute scoring rate.
Defensively, Stoudemire was a major drain. The Knicks tried playing him at the 4 to fit in with their other two high-priced frontcourt players, but he struggles getting to the perimeter against floor spacers and often gets confused on the weak side. New York gave up 5.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and even this assessment may be kind.
Ideally, New York would make Stoudemire a sixth man so he wouldn't have to guard good players as often and could play center more. Then it could move Carmelo Anthony to power forward and have everybody in a more suitable role. For some reason there seems to be tremendous internal resistance to trying this.
TYSON CHANDLER, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.912.20.915.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long, mobile big man who alters shots and controls defensive boards.+ No post game. Good foul shooter. Strong finisher around the basket.+ Runs the floor well. Good leader. Can't handle the ball. Won't take a bad shot.
AnalysisChandler won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, yet for number geeks the more interesting part might have been his offense. A strong finisher who never takes a bad shot, Chandler's 67.9 field goal percentage was the third best of all time, trailing only two Wilt Chamberlain campaigns, while his 70.8 TS% was the best in NBA history. Chandler's mark the previous season was pushed down to fourth, so he's on quite a roll (see chart).
Top TS% of all timePlayer Year TS%Tyson Chandler 2011-12 70.8Artis Gilmore 1981-82 70.2Artis Gilmore 1980-81 69.9Tyson Chandler 2010-11 69.0Wilt Chamberlain 1972-73 68.9Min. 500 minutes. Source: Basketball-reference.comAdditionally, Chandler had the league's best shooting percentage at the rim at 75.8 percent, and supplemented it with a fairly phenomenal 0.89 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That also nearly led the league, placing him third, and was far and away the best among players whom opponents weren't intentionally trying to foul. In fact, Chandler could have added to his TS% record if not for a slump to 68.9 percent from the line; the previous two years he'd hit 73.2 percent.
Of course, Chandler chose his spots -- he was 50th among centers in usage rate -- but even so, his finishing was so efficient that it made him a very valuable offensive player. As for his defense, his presence transformed the Knicks from well below average into a strong, cohesive unit. They gave up 1.2 points per 100 possessions less with Chandler on the court, an amazing stat because he nearly always shared the court with human turnstiles Anthony and Stoudemire at the forward spots. Opposing centers mustered just a 12.6 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
Overall, he was the Knicks' best player, even though seemingly everybody on last season's team except Chandler earned headlines at one point or another. The only downer was a brutally awful playoff series against Miami, highlighted by a zero-point, seven-turnover, one-flagrant disaster in Game 1 when he was battling the flu.
J.R. SMITH, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.86.03.716.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Talented, pouty guard with unlimited shooting range. Great leaping ability.+ Outstanding scoring ability, but makes poor decisions and doesn't guard.+ Can create off the dribble, but makes questionable decisions. Good rebounder.
Ask a fan which player the Knicks imported from China last season and chances are they'll guess wrong; the correct answer is Smith, whom the Knicks signed after he spent half a season in the Chinese league.
Smith struggled to get his 3-ball going, making only 34.7 percent, and for that reason his numbers were down a bit from the previous season. His range is when he gets off the bus, but he's not that consistent a shooter -- a career 36.9 percent on 3s and 74.0 percent from the line. If he was, he'd be unguardable.
But in the big picture he did the usual Smith things offensively with the second unit, creating offense, bewildering with bad shots and then restoring faith with amazing ones, and running the pick-and-roll just decently enough to keep doing it. He's actually become much better about ball security, ranking 11th at his position in turnover ratio, and he can play point guard in a pinch.
Defensively, Smith is awful. Synergy rated him as the worst player in the league in 2010-11; in 2011-12, he merely rated as the worst on his team. With his talent, he should be much better than this. The Knicks gave up more points with him on the court, just like all his teams have, and as usual his gambles were a big reason: Smith was third among shooting guards in steals per minute, but at the expense of ranking seventh in foul rate and likely first in 5-on-4s created by missed gambles. The one thing he does well is rebound, again finishing well above the norm for his position in rebound rate.
STEVE NOVAK, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.64.10.513.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Deadly accurate 3-point shooter off the catch with few other offensive skills.+ Much-improved defender after being routinely torched in previous years. + Subpar rebounder. Can't create his own shot. Low-mistake player.
Talk about a specialist. Novak played 1,019 minutes last season and took 337 shots. You know how many of them came at the rim? Would you believe ... ZERO?!?! Miami's James Jones also had zero shots at the rim last season, but he had half as many shots and half as many minutes as Novak (see chart). Amazingly, Novak rarely even stepped inside the 3-point line; 83.7 percent of his shot attempts were triples.
Lowest % of shots at rim, 2011-12Player Team Pct. of FG at rimSteve Novak NY 0.0James Jones Mia 0.0Daequan Cook OKC 3.1Mike Bibby NY 3.2Kyle Korver Chi 3.6Min. 500 minutes. Source: Hoopdata.comLook at the rest of his stat line and you'd think he hardly played: 26 free throw attempts, 9 blocks, 9 offensive boards, 12 assists. But then there's the little fact that he took 282 3-pointers and made a league-leading 47.2 percent of them. This guy is the Rolls Royce of catch-and-shoot weapons, a guaranteed trifecta waiting to happen for any guard who can find him on a kickout.
Novak could always shoot, but the difference last season was that he defended competently enough to stay on the court for his offense. While he lacks strength and isn't a guy you'd willingly put on an elite scorer, Novak rated as only a mildly below-average defensive player last season. Previously, he'd graded out as blackened toast. As long as he can get a few stops, his deadly jump shot will keep him in the league ... and perhaps one of these years he can get a shot at the rim.
MARCUS CAMBY, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER7.514.63.215.0Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Lanky big man who defends the rim and rebounds. Won't leave the paint on defense.+ Good handle for his size and an excellent high-post passer. Awkward outside shot.+ Rarely attacks the rim and struggles to finish. Lacks strength. Poor foul shooter.
AnalysisCamby led the NBA in rebound rate at age 37, which is an amazing accomplishment no matter how you slice it. He also ranked in the top 15 at his position in both blocks and steals per minute, and was third among centers in pure point rating. These metrics overrate Camby's defense -- he won't leave the paint to help his guards because he knows rebounds get him paid, leaving lots of open jumpers for pick-and-roll point guards -- but overall he's still pretty solid at that end.
Rebound Rate Leaders, 2011-12Player Team DRRMarcus Camby Por-Hou 22.8Dwight Howard Orl 21.9Reggie Evans LAC 20.9Anderson Varejao Cle 20.8Aaron Gray Tor 20.3Min. 500 minutesOffensively, however, he's a bust. Here's an amazing stat: Camby had the worst shooting percentage at the rim among bigs in 2010-11; technically, he was five shots short of the minimum 150 shots, but if he had made all five he still would have been last. Wanna know what happened in 2011-12? Camby was the worst again, shooting 49.3 percent at the rim. Except this time he was four shots short of the minimum. But, again, if he'd made all four he would have been last.
So basically, he's just a really, really bad finisher for a player of his size, and that limits his offensive impact -- especially since he can't shoot either and his free throw shooting has gone off the rails the past couple seasons. Overall, Camby averaged an anemic 8.5 points per 40 minutes with a terrible TS%; he was just so good on the boards that he had a solid PER anyway. For as long as he continues doing so, he'll be a solid backup center.
IMAN SHUMPERT, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER13.84.64.011.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Tall, long combo guard with explosive leaping ability. Poor outside shooter.+ Active, zippy defender with All-Defense potential. Far too aggressive. + Solid handle, but struggles at the point with decision-making. Tore his ACL in the playoffs.
AnalysisIt's rare for a rookie to be an impact defender because there is so much to learn at this level, but Shumpert was one at times last season. He ranked second among shooting guards in steals per minute and his defensive pressure was a palpable force all season, especially in contrast to the other Knicks guards.
However, Shumpert's aggressiveness had a cost too, and he has to learn how to manage risk and reward better at that end. He fouled 4.09 times per 40 minutes, a ridiculously high rate for a guard, and gave up enough openings for drives that it often offset the impact of his pressure.
Offensively, Shumpert has more work to do. He's very quick and he can get his shot, but that's not always a good thing; he shot 31.8 percent on 2s outside the basket area and only 30.6 percent on 3s, a shot he took far too readily. He showed finishing skills (61.6 percent at the rim), but needs to refine his shot selection and improve his stroke.
Shumpert played a lot of minutes at the point but probably shouldn't, as his negative pure point rating jibes with the general impression that he was a fairly disastrous offensive orchestrator prone to poor decisions. After the All-Star break, when he played more on the wing, his shooting numbers improved and his turnovers declined dramatically.
Unfortunately, Shumpert tore his ACL in the playoffs and may miss most of this season. The hope is that his quickness will return intact, because that was the unique feature that made him an NBA player.
RONNIE BREWER, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.85.63.311.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Long-armed wing who gets his hands on lots of balls. Disruptive defender.+ Good cutter off the ball, especially along baselines. Good finisher at the basket.+ Poor shooter with terrible form. Quality ball handler for his size. Rebounds well.
AnalysisBrewer's offensive game suffered last season, as he took a lot of jump shots and mostly missed them. More than half his shots were beyond 10 feet, but he made only 33.3 percent of his long 2s and was even worse on 3s (27.5 percent). While he can still get points in the basket area on cuts and transitions, the net impact was a brutal TS% -- he has to either stop taking jump shots or make more of them. One hopes New York's system will give him more freedom to make the kind of off-ball cuts and flashes that made him dangerous in Utah.
One plus area for Brewer is his ballhandling, which is near point-guard caliber. Brewer once again combined a very high assist ratio with a very low turnover ratio, ranking seventh among shooting guards in pure point rating.
Defensively, however, Brewer is an ace who gets his hands on lots of balls while hardly ever fouling. Only three shooting guards were whistled less often, yet Brewer was sixth at his position in steals per minutes. (He also, helpfully, was 14th in rebound rate.) Opposing shooting guards had just an 11.8 PER against him last season according to 82games.com, and with his length and mobility it's easy to see why. He should take over the stopper role from Iman Shumpert, making him a bargain at the veteran's minimum. Alas, his inability to space the floor will once again banish him to the pine in fourth quarters.
KURT THOMAS, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER5.48.82.35.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Ancient, undersized pick-and-pop big man. Rarely shoots in the paint.+ Cagey, tough, strong and competitive. Low-mistake player. Very slow.+ Still a valuable defensive player due to smarts and toughness.
The amazing thing about Thomas is that, even at age 39, he was still able to generate impressive results on defense. Synergy rated Thomas the most effective Blazers defender and one of the league's better centers, and the Blazers gave up 6.8 points per 100 possessions less with Thomas on the court. He's very slow, but he's never out of position and uses his strength well; additionally, he's still a pretty decent rebounder. Thomas also uses his fouls liberally, as his rate of one every 6.5 minutes was one of the highest in basketball.
Percent of shots from 10 to 23 feet, 2011-12 leadersPlayer Team Pct. as midrangeKurt Thomas Por 80.9Brandon Bass Bos 67.1Tyrus Thomas Cha 67.0D.J. White Cha 64.9Jason Smith NO 64.7Min 500 minutes. Source: Hoopdata.comOffensively, however, he brings so little to the table that it's tough to justify extended minutes for him. Thomas never attacks the paint, leading the NBA in the portion of his shots taken as long 2s (see chart). While he's a very good shooter from there, making 48.0 percent of his long 2s, it's less than ideal to have your backup center make seven shots in the basket area the entire season. The usual side effects came with that: virtually no free throw attempts, a low TS% and a piddling 8.0 points per 40 minutes.
Thomas still has value as a third center for a playoff team and will fill that exact role after an offseason trade sent him back to the Knicks.
JAMES WHITE, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ High-flying wing who can throw down highlight-film dunks. Thin frame.+ Good slasher who draws fouls. Needs strength and better ball skills. + Attitude is a question. Average at best as an outside shooter.
White has played in 10 NBA games and is 29 years old, so let's not get carried away, but a lot of people have felt he has NBA talent and never quite ended up on the right team at the right time. New York took a flier on him hoping this will be that time. He can leap and get easy baskets in transition and slashing to the rim, and his stats in his last D-League campaign in 2008-09 were excellent. He won't be overmatched defensively, but will need to keep his head on straight and knock down some corner 3s with his suspect jumper.
PABLO PRIGIONI, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Small, traditional pass-first point guard. Struggles to get to the basket.+ Spot-up shooter with mediocre results. Rebounds well for his size. B athlete at best.
Prigioni is an unusual European import -- he's 35 and at the tail end of a very productive run overseas, but he apparently wanted one taste of the NBA. His metrics from overseas suggest he'll have a difficult time, especially when it comes to scoring. Prigioni's translated Euroleague stats show him with only 7.7 points per 40 minutes and a shooting percentage in the high 30s; his translated stats from 2011 are even worse.
He'll fill the sheet in other categories, as he's a good passer and his translated rebound rate is very good for a small guard (about five boards per 40 minutes). However, even in Europe he rarely shoots 2s, and he's only made a third of his 3-pointers over the past two seasons. Basically, it appears he's a replacement-level player, but given the thin New York backcourt he may have to play a lot anyway.
― instafapper (J0rdan S.), Thursday, 27 September 2012 05:34 (thirteen years ago)
MO WILLIAMS, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.32.64.314.6Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Score-first combo guard who likes midrange jumpers off dribble. Quick release.+ Good 3-point shooter off catch. Rarely gets to rim or draws fouls.+ Average athlete and defender, especially versus quick guards. Great foul shooter.
AnalysisWith a switch to an off-the-ball, sixth-man shooting specialist, Williams rebounded from a disappointing 2010-11 to rank in the top third of shooting guards as a scorer and just above the position average in true shooting percentage. His assists took a dip, obviously, since he wasn't playing the point much, but he had a strong pure point rating for a wing. He'll be back to more of a point guard role in Utah, but he'll mostly be spotting up to shoot off the catch -- much as he did for the Clippers.
The midrange J was his bread-and-butter again, as he hit 41.5 percent of his long 2s on five tries a game, but he also shot 38.9 percent on 3s. The main concern is that he stopped getting to the rim. Williams' free throw rate was nearly halved from the previous season -- unfortunate given that he rarely misses once he gets there -- and he had only 73 shots at the rim all season.
Defensively, Williams was a liability. He often cross-matched with Eric Bledsoe, which provided some relief, but he's not much better at guarding 1s than he is at checking 2s. Moreover, any pairing with Chris Paul was pretty much flammable because Williams had to defend much bigger shooting guards. The Clippers gave up 5.1 points per 100 possessions more with Williams on the court, and his Synergy rating was subpar as well. This will be less of a concern as a full-time point guard, but Williams is a minus at either guard spot.
GORDON HAYWARD, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.84.54.315.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Big, athletic wing who can attack rim and finish. Draws lots of fouls.+ Average shooter and ball handler but a good passer. Left hand needs work. + Suspect defender, especially at the 2, but also needs work on post defense.
AnalysisAfter a rocky rookie season, Hayward was one of the league's most improved players in 2011-12 and seems poised to be a long-term solution on the wings for Utah. The one caveat is that he still seems to be much better suited to small forward than shooting guard, where he played most of his minutes a season ago and likely will again this season.
Hayward is just passable as a ball handler and still has a maddening habit of picking up his dribble after not going anyplace in particular. When he plays more aggressively he's very good, especially going to the basket -- he ranked fifth among shooting guards in free throw rate and made 83.2 percent, plus he shot 64.9 percent at the rim. From outside, however, he's barely adequate, making 39.4 percent of his long 2s and 34.6 percent of his 3s. Since he's only 22 and his form is solid, one suspects these numbers will improve.
Hayward also sees the floor well, ranking sixth among shooting guards in assist ratio, but what needs more work is the subtle stuff. He needs a better left hand, for instance, and he needs to develop some one-handed finishes -- Hayward always goes up with two hands on the ball, which tends to leave him putting the ball in harm's way and relying entirely on outjumping the defender.
It's a similar story defensively. Hayward is big and can jump -- he was seventh among shooting guards in blocks per minute -- but his overall defense needs considerable work. Synergy rated him the 10th-worst defender in the league with at least 200 plays defended, and while that's probably an exaggeration, the Jazz did defend better when he was off the court. Again, it would help if he could play the 3 rather than chase quicker 2s around, but even at the 3 he needs work on his post defense.
MARVIN WILLIAMS, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.27.51.915.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Passive combo forward with good midrange shot. Excellent finisher in transition.+ Long-armed wing defender who needs to add strength. Can play 4 in a pinch.+ Decent lateral movement; solid defender. Excellent rebounder for a wing.
AnalysisWilliams looked better last season after back surgery, walking visibly more upright and putting together arguably his best pro season on the court. He's become an extreme low-mistake player who ranked third among small forwards in turnover ratio and also fouled very infrequently. Additionally, he rated seventh among small forwards in rebound rate.
Williams also shot the ball effectively, hitting a career-best 38.9 percent on 3s and shooting the 3 with far greater frequency than in the past. However, he went the opposite way on long 2s, dropping to 33.9 percent on nearly as many attempts. Williams again earned a lot of free throws with his offensive boards and fast-break attacks to the rim, even though he's not a particularly aggressive or deceptive half-court player.
Defensively, Williams was miscast as the Hawks' stopper and the team played better once Kirk Hinrich replaced him as a starter, but his length and mobility make him an effective defender overall.
Overall he's an effective small forward and will be a major upgrade on what Utah had at this spot a season ago, even with a likely regression in his 3-point shooting. He's just overpaid for what he is.
PAUL MILLSAP, PFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER18.810.02.919.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Undersized, high-energy 4 who can score around basket or hit midrange jumpers. + Excellent rebounder with good hands and wide frame. Amazing knack for steals.+ Size a problem defensively. Good passer. Moves well without ball into openings.
AnalysisMillsap might be the most underrated player in the league. I love this guy. He's not a prototype 4 because he's undersized, but he's athletic, skilled and just knows how to play. He beats smaller players on post-ups, takes bigger ones off the dribble and confounds both with his midrange jump shot.
Last season was his best yet -- he averaged better than a point every two minutes, ranked sixth among power forwards in player efficiency rating, and had he been in the Eastern Conference certainly would have made the All-Star Game. The key is how broad-based his skills are: Millsap was in the top half of power forwards in every category I track except fouls per minute. All of them.
He was in the top quarter of power forwards in rebounds and assists. He got to the line and made his freebies. He made 41.6 percent of his long 2s and 71.6 percent of his shots in the basket area. He didn't turn it over. While he lacks a single defining go-to move, he has such an assortment of options that he can score on nearly anybody; in particular, his ball skills have really improved.
And for an undersized 4, his defense sure doesn't seem to be a problem. He fouls a lot, and that keeps him off the court sometimes. However, the Jazz were once again better with him on the court than off it, while Synergy's stats rated him above the league average for power forwards.
And then there's this little nugget: Millsap averaged 2.25 steals per 40 minutes. To put that in perspective, no other frontcourt player averaged more than 2.0, and no small forward matched Millsap's total either. The top 11 players in steal rate last season were 10 guys 6-4 or shorter -- and Paul Millsap.
AL JEFFERSON, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER21.410.92.421.5Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Left-block post scorer with huge hands. Much improved passer. Good rebounder.+ Arsenal includes jump hook to 12 feet, great shot fake, and lethal drop step.+ Poor defender with slow reactions. Too slow for 4, but short for a 5.
AnalysisJefferson discovered the joys of passing out of double-teams and had a career season as a result, unfathomably leading all centers in pure point rating (yes, this really happened) with the help of a historically low turnover ratio.
His ability to create shots without turning the ball over is truly phenomenal. Jefferson had miscues on only 4.7 percent of his possessions last season. Nobody in the history of the NBA has had a usage rate this high and turnover ratio this low. Nobody.
Yes, there were some drawbacks to this approach. Jefferson took a lot of midrange jumpers and half-hooks and rarely attacked the rim, so he had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. As a result, his true shooting percentage was ordinary. But creating league-average shooting with virtually no turnover risk is a great bargain, and despite his penchant for ball-stopping it gave Jefferson genuine offensive value.
As for defensive value, we'll get back to you on that. Jefferson blocks shots and is a good rebounder, but primarily he seems concerned with avoiding fouls that might take him off the court. Only seven centers fouled less, and it wasn't because Jefferson was in such exquisite defensive position that he didn't need to gamble. The Jazz gave up 1.9 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court last season, and that was his best mark in the past three years; Synergy also rated him below the league average.
DERRICK FAVORS, FCHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER17.912.51.517.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Mobile big man with elite physical skills and monstrous defensive potential.+ Raw offensive instincts. Can finish at rim and draws lots of fouls.+ Poor shooter. Lacks great post moves and ball skills. Lacks great hands.
AnalysisFavors showed in the second half of the season what a force of nature he's becoming, especially at the defensive end. In the second half of the season in particular, he began cashing in on some of that promise; the Jazz played far better defensively with Favors on the court, partly because it meant Al Jefferson was off it but partly because Favors' length, strength and athleticism make him an All-Defense caliber player down the road. At 6-10 he doesn't quite have ideal size for a center, and he doesn't have the skills of a 4, but he has to play somewhere and center seems the better fit.
Offensively, he's further behind. Favors had some great moments and overall it's tough to argue with 16.6 points and 12.4 boards per 40 minutes, but he had the fourth-worst pure point rating in the NBA and shot 29.8 percent outside the basket area. He shot a lot from out there too, taking nearly three tries a game.
Favors also drew lots of fouls by overwhelming opponents physically, and that rate should only increase as he keeps filling out (he's only 21) and learns how to use shot fakes and draw contact. However, his 64.9 percent mark from the line needs to improve for that to be of much use.
Nonetheless, it was an incredibly encouraging season that marked Favors as a rising star, and could portend some other changes in Utah's frontcourt to make way for him.
ALEC BURKS, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER19.85.12.615.1Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Smooth, slashing scorer with good size. Can get to rim, draw fouls and score. + Solid ball handler and penetrator, but has lousy court vision. Rebounds well.+ Outside shot needs work. Good defensive quickness but needs more muscle.
AnalysisOne the more puzzling stories in Utah's season was the Jazz's insistence on playing a finished Raja Bell ahead of productive rookie Burks. He finally broke through in the rotation and was the Jazz's third-leading scorer on a per-minute basis. The biggest weapon was his ability to draw fouls; he ranked fourth in free throw rate among shooting guards. It would help if he found a teammate or two on his forays to the rim, however, as he was just 54th out of 61 shooting guards in assist ratio.
Burks can finish and draw fouls, but away from the rim is a different story; his 44.2 percent mark on 2s was well below the norm for shooting guards. Burks shot 33.2 percent on shots beyond 10 feet, three-quarters of which were 2s, and a brutal 9-for-48 between 3 and 9 feet. He'll need to improve his jumper to become a major scoring threat, but the other tools are all there.
Defensively, Burks will need to bulk up to battle post-up 2s and also needs to cut his fouls (eighth most among shooting guards) and improve his general awareness. He's quick, however, and could be good in time. Even last season he graded out decently, with Synergy rating him above the league average for shooting guards and the Jazz only defending a hair worse (0.9 points per 100 possessions) with him on the court.
ENES KANTER, CHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER15.012.90.515.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Strong widebody with knack for boards. Below-rim player, struggles to finish. + Exceptional rebounder who loves to bang inside. Mobility an issue defensively.+ Showed shooting skill in Europe but rarely shot as rookie. Needs better ball skills.
AnalysisKanter got to be the third overall pick in 2011 with the help of a dominant performance at the Hoop Summit, where he showed an accurate jumper to complement his brutish inside game. We saw no evidence of those perimeter skills as a rookie; Kanter took just 46 shots outside 10 feet and made only 12 of them, which is baffling. If the Jazz are just asking him to be a grunt, they shouldn't have taken him third overall.
Kanter might be helped by more pick-and-pop tries, but his other problem is that his ball skills are brutal. He had the second-worst pure point rating in the NBA and the laughable total of eight assists the entire season. That gave Kanter the worst assist ratio in basketball (see chart).
Assist Ratio, 2011-12's WorstPlayer Team Assist RatioEnes Kanter Uta 2.3Steve Novak NY 3.1Ian Mahinmi Dal 3.3DeAndre Jordan LAC 3.5Joel Anthony Mia 3.8Min. 500 minutesThe one skill he clearly displayed was a knack for rebounding. Kanter's 18.3 mark was fourth among power forwards, and he drew fouls at a high rate (9th) thanks to all the second shots he earned. At the other end, despite his physical style and the fact he plays for the hack-happy Jazz, Kanter had a very low foul rate for a rookie.
Defensively he wasn't bad, although he's not a rim protector and is a bit of a tweener between 4 and 5. Also, it's important to remember that he's 19 and basically hadn't played in a real game in over two years. But if he's going to be this useless with the ball and rely on teammates' misses for all his points, it's hard to justify drafting him so highly.
RANDY FOYE, GHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER16.23.23.912.9Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Combo guard who can spot up for jumpers. Struggles running offense from point. + A natural 2 offensively, but can't defend 2s in post because of lack of height.+ Good foul shooter. Poor rebounder. Low-turnover player but rarely gets to rim.
AnalysisA stopgap starter after the Chauncey Billups injury, Foye proved effective as a floor spacer for the Clippers by hitting 38.6 percent of his 3s while taking more than half his shots from that distance. However, he struggled inside the arc and basically stopped drawing fouls, and that's what made his overall averages so ho-hum. Only three shooting guards shot worse on 2s than Foye's 41.0 percent. Between that and his alarming drop in free throws, Foye's true shooting percentage was slightly below the league average for shooting guards.
Foye's ballhandling numbers were solid, but they're also misleading -- he's struggled mightily to run the offense any time he's been asked to play the point, which is a concern since it appears Utah may play him there. On a positive note, he relied much less on midrange jumpers last season.
Defensively, Foye gave up inches and was no star, but he did a solid job at the 2 and should be a bit better at the point. The key weakness is that he needs help when bigger wings try to post him up. He can generally handle himself on the perimeter.
EARL WATSON, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER5.84.87.58.3Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Hard-nosed point guard with size and strength to check 2s effectively. + Strong defender but overaggressive; makes bad decisions on both ends. + Bad shooter and lacks great point guard instincts. Rebounds well.
AnalysisWatson lost the backup point guard job to Jamaal Tinsley for one simple reason: He could neither create a shot nor make one. Averaging a pitiful 5.8 points per 40 minutes while shooting just 33.8 percent from the floor, Watson was simply too great an offensive liability to keep on the court for defensive purposes.
At that end, he remains solid. Watson is a classic overaggressive Utah guy, sporting the sixth-highest foul rate among point guards, but he also ranked third in blocks, 12th in steals and 15th in rebound rate. Utah gave up 4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court, continuing a career-long trend.
Assist Ratio, 2011-12 LeadersPlayer Team Assist RatioEarl Watson Uta 45.0Steve Nash Phx 44.0Jose Calderon Tor 43.4Rajon Rondo Bos 42.3Jason Kidd Dal 41.2Min. 500 minutesUnfortunately he's lost a step offensively and he can't shoot. Watson made up for it with a league-high assist ratio, but that was partly because he never shot -- as a result, 45.0 percent of the possessions he used ended in an assist, but the ones that didn't ended in misery. His turnover ratio was also nearly the worst at his position, so overall his pure point rating was unexceptional. Meanwhile, he shot 26.4 percent outside the basket area. That's, um, not so good.
JEREMY EVANS, SFHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Rail-thin, pogo-leaping forward who excels on alley-oop plays.+ Lacks ball skills and shooting ability. Will block shots.+ Mobility a plus on defense but lacks strength to guard post.
AnalysisEvans shot 25-of-30 in the basket area and 1-of-11 everywhere else; that about sums things up. If it's not a dunk, he's not making it, and while he excels on alley-oop plays from the weak side, you can do this sort of trickeration only once or twice a game.
Evans' per-minute numbers are very good, as the Jazz have figured out how to use him in short bursts with the bench, but one greatly doubts they're sustainable over longer stretches because he can't create any offense at all by himself.
One thing he can do is block shots. Evans swatted 24 in just 217 minutes, a phenomenal rate of one every nine minutes. However, his lack of lower-body strength is a major problem. In limited minutes, opposing power forwards had a 17.4 PER at his expense and Utah gave up 4.6 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
RAJA BELL, SGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER10.72.91.97.8Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Feisty, physical defender who has declined substantially at both ends.+ Spot-up, line-drive outside shooter off catch or after a single dribble to right.+Lacks athleticism and can't create own shot. Poor rebounder.
AnalysisI've seen players call out coaches before when they weren't playing as much as they thought they should, but Bell was killing the Jazz and Ty Corbin was starting him and playing him 23 minutes a night -- and Bell went to war with him anyway. The bizarre chapter ended with Bell on the bench and likely to be bought out, while the Jazz inadvertently improved in his absence, closing 15-8 in the 23 games he missed at the end of the season to surprisingly make the playoffs.
Bell's offense slipped in 2010-11, and last season it was his defense's turn -- Synergy graded him well below average and the Jazz did much worse with him on the court. He also fouled tremendously often to little effect -- only one shooting guard was whistled more frequently, but only two stole the ball less often. While he's still physical and competes, he's just lost too much athleticism at 36 to compete as a fairly short defensive stopper.
DeMARRE CARROLL, FHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPERN/AN/AN/AN/ADid not play 500 NBA minutes last season | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Athletic, high-energy combo forward. Quick but not a leaper.+ Limited offensive skills. Doesn't draw fouls. Useful in presses and traps.
AnalysisCarroll shocked the masses by making six 3-pointers in limited late-season duty with Utah, but look at the season as a whole and it's the same story -- he can't shoot. Carroll tried 54 2-point shots outside the basket area last season and only made 19 of them. On the plus side, he made the first six 3s of his career on 18 attempts, which offers at least a glimmer of hope. But overall, that's still terrible.
What he did do was score just enough to make it somewhat plausible to keep him on the court for his energy and defense. That's particularly true if the set-shot 3 he's working on can find the net every so often, making him more viable as a small forward. Otherwise Carroll is more of an 11th-man type (at best) -- useful as a power forward in small, trapping, pressing lineups but little else. We'll see if his brief burst of shooting competence carries over into 2012-13. I wouldn't count on it.
JAMAAL TINSLEY, PGHollinger's 2012-13 ProjectionsPTSREBASTPER12.73.314.610.2Stats are per 40 minutes | Hollinger player card
Scouting report+ Slick-dribbling point guard with good court vision. Prone to turnovers.+ Poor outside shooter with sideways-spinning push shot off shoulder. + Has lost athleticism. Rarely draws fouls. Subpar foul shooter.
AnalysisI'm not sure what was more shocking: Tinsley signing with the buttoned-down Jazz, or his playing well enough to beat out Earl Watson and claim the backup point guard job. Tinsley wasn't great -- only four point guards had a worse turnover ratio -- but he created enough plays to rank 16th in pure point rating, and shot over 40 percent for the first time in half a decade.
Tinsley made 44.6 percent of his long 2s, but that outlier hides a worrying second trend: He scored only nine times in the basket area. At 34 he doesn't have the jets to get to the rim, and that's problematic for a player who historically has shot very poorly from outside. Tinsley also had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. One guesses he won't shoot nearly as well this season, and that his numbers will likely regress as a result.
toronto raptors:KYLE LOWRY, PG
+ Tough, aggressive guard who pressures the ball and defends. Loves taking charges.+ Likes to push the tempo but can get out of control. Improved outside shooter.+ Good athlete who draws fouls. On the short side. Excellent rebounder for size.
Lowry had a career year in Kevin McHale's point guard-friendly system, but he clashed with the coach anyway -- partly because his previously ferocious defense slackened noticeably last season. Normally among the best defensive point guards in basketball, Lowry's defensive metrics were pretty ho-hum last season. Synergy rated him below average, and opposing point guards had a 15.7 PER against him, although the Rockets still gave up fewer points with him on the court.
The one positive at that end was how much he helped on the glass -- Lowry's rebound rate (8.2) led all point guards. Nonetheless, one suspects that in Dwane Casey's system, he'll be asked to defend more and freelance on offense less.
Offensively, Lowry's shooting was a revelation. He made 37.4 percent of his 3s and was smart enough to mostly either shoot 3s or go all the way to the rim -- fewer than a third of his shots were 2s outside the basket area. Additionally, he drew heaps of fouls this way and made a career-high 86.4 percent at the stripe. The cost was a boost in turnovers without any commensurate rise in assists.
Lowry now has shot better than 37 percent on 3s in consecutive seasons, and last season many of these were several feet behind the line, so it's time to update the scouting report on his shooting -- he's a real threat from deep. Between that and his quickness getting to the rim, he'll be a major upgrade for Toronto, especially if he gets back to his old ways on defense.
:DEMAR DEROZAN, SG
+ One-dimensional scorer who can get to the rim and draw fouls. Midrange shooter.+ Great leaper, finisher. Ball hog with iffy handle, passes only as last resort.+ Decent defensive tools but focus an issue. Struggles to guard big 3s.
DeRozan averaged nearly a point every two minutes last season, ranking in the top third of shooting guards in that metric. And that about does it for the good news.
Few players score an emptier 20 than this guy. Offensively, DeRozan drew fouls at a high rate (eighth among shooting guards) and made his freebies (81 percent). But his secondary percentage was still less than the norm for the position because he made only 24 3-pointers all season, and his midrange stroke had some snags, too. DeRozan had made a strong 41.5 percent of his long 2s in 2010-11, but that might have been an outlier; he converted only 35.7 percent last season. Given that he mostly shot long 2s, that was a problem.
His other problem is that he doesn't notice the other four guys on the court. It's one thing for DeRozan to be a mildly inefficient, high-volume shooter, but he also created only for himself. He ranked just 56th out of 61 shooting guards in pure point rating.
Defensively, DeRozan improved but still has a long way to go to become decent. Some of that can be attributed to playing more at the 3, where he struggled with size mismatches. However, his effort and technique also could use a significant upgrade. DeRozan ranked near the bottom of Synergy's rankings, while the Raptors gave up 3.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
:LANDRY FIELDS, SF
+ Big shooting guard with outstanding nose for rebounding. Quick leaper.+ Poor shooter, but smart player with good feel for off-ball cuts.+ Average athlete and defender. Never fouls. Rarely attacks offensively.
Fields has some value because he is smart and gets himself layups with second shots and off-ball cuts, but his lack of shooting ability is becoming increasingly problematic. Fields shot 25.6 percent on 3s and 56.2 percent from the line last season, both of which are completely unacceptable for a starting NBA shooting guard, and his midrange game didn't offer a ton of hope, either (35.2 percent). He earned himself enough layups that he still ranked sixth among shooting guards in 2-point field goal percentage, and that's valuable, but the lack of 3s made him a low-volume (12.2 points per 40 minutes) and low-efficiency (46th in true shooting percentage) scoring threat.
Otherwise, he had a solid season. Fields ranked seventh among shooting guards in rebound rate and ninth in steals per minute, and he's a good passer. Defensively, he's solid at either wing spot, although he's not a great athlete and might be better off at the 3, where he'd be less vulnerable to quickness mismatches. The Knicks gave up 4.3 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court, although Synergy rated him below average.
None of that makes him worth that ridiculous offer sheet from Toronto, of course, but his skill set should keep him in an NBA rotation, and if he can discover a shooting stroke, he might become a viable starter.
:ANDREA BARGNANI, PF
+ Tall line-drive jump shooter. Deadly off catch or single dribble to right.+ Likes jab move off wrong foot for face-up jumper or right-hand drive.+ Much-improved defender. Charmin-soft and abhors contact. Horrid rebounder.
Bargnani missed more than half the season with a calf strain and wasn't quite himself in several aborted comeback attempts, which is unfortunate because he looked to be one of the league's most improved players before the injury.
Bargnani was a force in the 13 games he played before the All-Star break, averaging 24.1 points on 46.3 percent shooting, getting to the line with aggressive right-hand drives and pump fakes, and flummoxing opposing big men with his usual unorthodox assortment of wrong-footed jab step moves. Without him, the Raptors were hopeless offensively; they're 10-31 over the past two seasons when he doesn't play.
The offense wasn't even the best part of Bargnani's partial season, though. Defensively, he went from one of the worst in the league to something resembling a real basketball player, overnight. I don't want to get too excited just yet -- he still lacks physicality and his rebound rate is flat-out embarrassing for a 7-footer -- but Bargnani had very strong Synergy grades, and his other metrics were substantially less awful than usual.
Last season offered a small sample, but with Bargnani likely to play more at the 4 this season and the tantalizing glimpse he gave us in 2011-12, he could finally be poised for the kind of breakout the Raptors have awaited the past six years.
:JONAS VALANCIUNAS, C
+ Mobile big man with knack for scoring around the basket. Makes free throws.+ Strong rebounder in European competition. Decent athlete but needs muscle.
Valanciunas' translated European stats suggest he'll be a solid player right away, and given that he's only 20, he could become a star. Additionally, he should immediately rival Arron Afflalo as the league's biggest typo threat.
As a finisher around the basket, he reminds one of Andris Biedrins, back when Biedrins was still alive, but Valanciunas has a better frame and one hopes he'll be able to pack on more muscle as he grows. Additionally, Valanciunas is a good foul shooter -- a notable contrast to Biedrins -- and could be a solid midrange shooter as a pro.
He likely will struggle to check opposing post players initially when he comes to North America and will take his lumps as a help defender. But the Raptors have themselves a young center with star potential, and not a lot of teams can say that.
:JOSE CALDERON, PG
+ Injury-prone pure point guard who takes care of the ball and finds the open man.+ Good outside shooter and great foul shooter, but struggles to get into the paint.+ Long for a point guard but lost lateral quickness and gets abused by fast guards.
Quick, who led the NBA in pure point rating last season? No, it wasn't Steve Nash or Rajon Rondo or any of the other stars you'd expect.
It was this guy, who continues to run offenses with uncanny precision. Calderon ranked third in the NBA in assist ratio and handed out 10.4 per 40 minutes while posting one of the lowest turnover ratios at his position, a remarkable achievement (see chart). Additionally, he's an efficient shooter who ranked eighth at his position in 2-point shooting percentage and hardly ever misses a free throw.
Pure Point Rating, 2011-12 leadersPlayer Team PPRJose Calderon Tor 11.56Rajon Rondo Bos 11.26Chris Paul LAC 10.91Steve Nash Phx 10.90Tony Parker SA 8.09Min. 500 minutes
He's not a star, however, because he just doesn't do this stuff frequently enough. He was 57th among the league's 70 point guards in usage rate, as he lacks the burst to consistently get in the paint and create shots for himself and others. That free throw stroke is largely wasted, too -- he was only 57th in free throw rate, even with the Raps often designating him to shoot technical fouls.
Durability also is a persistent issue. Last season he missed 13 games; he'd missed exactly 14 each of the three previous campaigns.
But the biggest shortcoming is his defense. Calderon was less visibly awful last season than in previous campaigns, but he remains a speed bump for any guard with speed. Synergy rated him as one of the worst point guards in the game, and opposing point guards blistered him for a 17.8 PER, according to 82games.com. Additionally, Calderon had some of the lowest rates of blocks and steals at his position, and the Raptors gave up 6.9 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Any way you slice it, he grades out as a major liability on this end. That's why, in spite of his tremendous efficiency at the point, his days as a starter are likely over.
:LINAS KLEIZA, SF
+ Bulky combo forward who likes to play physical. Overrated shooter.+ Strong right-handed driver to rim. Virtually never goes left and rarely passes.+ Poor mobility on defense and fouls a lot, but weirdly effective.
Kleiza made a solid return from microfracture surgery, putting up numbers virtually identical to his pre-injury output and providing a solid bench presence last season. Kleiza once again shot lots of jumpers with questionable accuracy; nearly half his shots were 3s but he made only 34.6 percent while converting 37.6 percent of his long 2s.
The good news it that he seemed to lose little explosion around the basket, drawing fouls at a high rate for a jump shooter and thus finishing with a respectable true shooting percentage. His ballhandling numbers, however, were not respectable in the least. Kleiza's turnover ratio was unacceptably high for a jump shooter, and he rarely passes once he puts it on the floor. As a result, only three small forwards had a worse pure point rating.
Defensively, Kleiza is strong and crashes the boards, but he lacks the quickness to defend 3s and resorts to fouling to make up for it -- only four small forwards fouled more often. Yet every shred of data suggests he did a very solid job overall. Opposing small forwards had just a 10.2 PER against him, according to 82games.com; Synergy gave him some of the league's best marks at the position; and the Raps gave up 2.8 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court.
Toronto also worked to keep him out of compromising matchups, so take that data with a grain of salt, but it does indicate he might be less of a liability on this end than previously thought.
:ED DAVIS, PF
+ Long, slim lefty who can leap. Excellent finisher, shot-blocker and rebounder.+ Good at short flips near basket but can't create own shot. Turnover-prone.+ No post game and jumper a question mark. Lack of strength a major problem on D.
I think it's fair to call this past season a setback. Davis had a fairly productive rookie year built mostly on an unusually high field goal percentage, but that mark predictably fell back to earth and he didn't offset it with any other improvements.
If anything, he backslid. Davis is long and can jump but badly needs to hit the weights, as he was absolutely thrashed physically by most opposing big men. Despite the abuse, he had an excellent rebound rate, ranking ninth among power forwards, and was 11th at the position in blocks.
This would be fine if he could play the 4 offensively, but he can't. Davis is a 5 in a 4's body, as he can only finish around the rim and can't create anything for himself. Over his two pro seasons, he's made 31.5 percent from beyond 10 feet, which doesn't cut it. He's great at the basket (75 percent last season), and very good on short-range hooks and flips (50.3 percent career from 3 to 9 feet), plus he draws fouls.
Unfortunately, his sky-high turnover ratio (61st out of 70 power forwards) blunts those positives, and he just doesn't get open enough to take advantage of his finishing skills -- Davis averaged only 10.8 points per 40 minutes last season. He is only 23 and still has time to improve, but right now he's a "4.5" who doesn't quite fit at either frontcourt slot.
:AMIR JOHNSON, PF
+ Long big man who is a very effective finisher at the basket. Good shot-blocker.+ Foul-prone due to lack of strength and high base. Illegal screens a problem.+ Can make midrange set shot. Little post game or ball skills. Good rebounder.
The Raptors' renewed focus on defense was perhaps most apparent with Johnson, who was dramatically more effective at that end than in previous seasons. While he still occasionally gets pummeled in physical matchups, Johnson rated among the top quarter of centers, according to Synergy, and the Raptors gave up 3.2 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court, according to 82games.com.
Johnson still fouls too much -- nearly once every seven minutes last season -- but he had strong rates of blocks and rebounds, especially for a power forward. (He was often forced to play center last season.)
Offensively, his numbers dropped off a bit, but he remains a potent finisher (72.4 percent in the basket area). His biggest problem now is his penchant for illegal screens on high screen-and-rolls, which caused his turnover ratio to nearly double from the season before. Johnson's slow-release push shot from midrange wasn't quite as accurate as the previous season, either, but overall he posted his fourth straight season with a true shooting percentage greater than 60 -- an impressive accomplishment.
Given that efficiency, he doesn't need to provide that much defense to be a worthwhile player. He has the chops to provide it as a full-time 4 this season, so if he can just cut out the illegal screens, he'll have a lot of value.
:TERRENCE ROSS, SG
+ Tall, athletic wing with deep shooting range. Needs to improve handle.+ Must add strength. Never draws fouls. Excellent defensive potential.
Ross posted the worst free throw rate of any prospect in this year's draft, earning just 0.20 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. That's but one indicator of the larger fact that he probably was a reach at No. 8. Ross is a decent perimeter shooter who should improve, and defensively, his length and mobility should allow him to overcome a strength deficit.
But I just don't see how he gets beyond serving as a role player. He's neither a particularly instinctive nor clever scorer, and he doesn't have a great handle. While he's a good athlete, he doesn't jump off the page. His rebound rate was strong for a wing, but his blocks and steals didn't stand out, and his ballhandling numbers were weak. He struck me more as a mid-to-late first-rounder than an elite talent.
:AARON GRAY, C
+ Huge, burly, slow-moving center. Can make short-range jump hooks.+ Unathletic, but excellent rebounder with good feel for low-post play.+ Size aids post defense but conditioning, mobility a negative. Fouls on every play.
On a team whose other center options were all 210-pound waifs, Gray's size was a real asset. He overcame an early season heart ailment and somehow wasn't blinded by all the hair hanging over his eyes, ranking fifth among centers in rebound rate while posting a solid true shooting percentage.
The drawback to all this is his plodding feet and the resultant fouls, with both illegal screens on offense and blocking calls on defense. Gray averaged a whistle every 6.4 minutes, the fifth-worst rate among centers and among the league's worst overall. That actually was a marked improvement on previous seasons, as he's gotten himself in better shape (although he's by no means chiseled).
Unfortunately, the fouls and lack of mobility hinder his defensive impact. The Raptors gave up 4.3 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, even though the alternatives weren't terribly appealing. Opposing centers shredded him for a 21.6 PER, according to 82games.com, while Synergy Stats didn't offer a kind review, either.
In a league that's increasingly focused on shooting and quickness, players of Gray's ilk are becoming dinosaurs. He's still immensely helpful against the Bynums and Howards of the world, but against 25 or so other opponents, he doesn't offer a whole lot.
:JOHN LUCAS III, PG
+ Small, quick point guard with good outside shot and scorer's mentality.+ Lacks great court vision. Size a major impediment on defense.+ Doesn't draw fouls. Not a great athlete.
Lucas got the first regular duty of his pro career last season and scored more than anyone imagined, pumping in more than a point every two minutes while shooting 39.3 percent on 3s. However, he was far too aggressive inside the arc, where he shot just 40.4 percent while hardly ever drawing fouls. Lucas attempted only 32 free throws all season; only two point guards had a lower rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt. As a result, Lucas finished with a poor true shooting percentage even though he was lighting it up from beyond the arc.
As a point guard, Lucas also has his shortcomings. He won't turn it over, but he mostly searches for shots and was in the bottom 10 at his position in assist ratio. This wasn't the worst idea with some of the limited second-unit groups he played with, but he can be a frustrating pounder at times.
Defensively, Lucas' phenomenal stats from last season should be taken with a huge grain of salt given the limited minutes and his own physical limitations. He's undersized and opponents can attack him in the post, but playing nearly all his minutes with Taj Gibson and Omer Asik limited the impact of his height. Opposing point guards had just a 7.7 PER against Lucas, according to 82games.com, and they scored 10.8 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court. As a tiny guard with a low steals rate and lacking a strong defensive rep, Lucas needs to show me considerably more minutes of that quality before I buy it.
:QUINCY ACY, SF
+ A vertical leap in search of a game. High-flying combo forward with limited skill.+ Excellent rebounder and shot-blocker for size. Makes free throws.
Acy is an explosive leaper and dunker, and that will always get people's attention, but he needs to round out his game considerably to stick at the next level. His shooting 78.2 percent from the line as a senior was a good start -- he at least needs to showcase a midrange jumper if he's going to cut it as an undersized 4. That's his most likely option, as he doesn't have the ball skills to play the wing.
He'll also need to funnel all that athleticism into some passionate defense. That's his most likely ticket to a permanent roster spot, but his attention level came and went while at Baylor.
ALAN ANDERSON, PG
+ Slashing, overaggressive wingman with sloppy handle. Good set shooter.+ Solid defensive player with good size and lateral quickness.+ Poor ball handler and passer. Very poor rebound rate for size.
Anderson didn't accomplish much at the offensive end last season but worked his way back into the NBA after a five-year absence by playing defense. He posted some of the best numbers at his position regardless of which metric you prefer -- Synergy ranked him the best defender on the Raptors, 82games.com said opposing small forwards had just a 10.7 PER against him and Toronto gave up 5.4 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court.
Unfortunately, his phenomenal turnover ratios blunt his impact. Anderson's turnover ratio would have been one of the worst at the small forward position despite his limited responsibilities at that end, and yet it was a career low. He didn't make up for it with great passing numbers and shot only 38.3 percent on 2s, making you wonder why he was so aggressive in the first place.
Anderson did hit 39.3 percent of his 3s, raising his career mark to 38.1 percent, and he's at 82.7 percent for his career at the line. He didn't shoot well on long 2s, suggesting he's much worse on the move, but the big-picture takeaway is that if he just focused on his catch-and-shoot game, he'd likely eliminate the turnovers that have set him back so much.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:43 (thirteen years ago)
phoenix suns
GORAN DRAGIC, PG
+ Aggressive, left-handed score-first point guard. Great finisher for a guard.+ Odd, inconsistent release off shoulder. Goes left almost every time.+ Great size for position. Good athlete. Decent defender with good hands.
Dragic's talent has always enticed, and last season he delivered on it with a career year built on improved mastery of the point guard position. He's always been able to get to the rim, but he showed great improvement as a distributor -- even eking into the top half of point guards in pure point rating -- and slashed his still-high turnover ratio just enough that it stopped being such a negative.
Dragic shot 67 percent at the rim, the best of any point guard with at least 150 attempts, plus he drew fouls at a high rate (nearly one free throw for every three field goal attempts). That pretty much carried him to the eighth-best true shooting percentage at his position, even though his outside stroke remains suspect. He made only 33.7 percent of his 3s and 37.3 percent of his long 2s, but, on a positive note, he hit a career-best 80.5 percent from the line -- boosting the impact of those free throw attempts.
Dragic had a huge one-year jump last season and regression is a concern, but I'd be more worried if he weren't moving to another point-guard-centric system. He actually shot below his career average on 3-pointers last season and has always had excellent finishing numbers at the rim; he just needed to figure out how to get there without turning it over so much. Phoenix's system, like Houston's, gives the rock to the point guard and gets out of the way, so he likely will be able to replicate his performance.
Defensively, Dragic made a lot of progress. He cut his foul rate, which allowed him to stay on the floor, and he still was active enough to rank in the top third of point guards in steals. His other data pegged him as a league-average defender, but he can do better. Dragic has good size and hands but still needs to commit more at this end.
:SHANNON BROWN, SG
+ Highflier with deep range but fluctuating accuracy. Short for a shooting guard.+ Limited handle, struggles to create and penetrate. Doesn't see floor well.+ Undersized but active defender. Athletic, strong and rarely fouls
Just to show that the Lakers aren't so special, Brown decided to post the exact same numbers in Phoenix that he did in L.A. the season before. Sure, there are some slight deviations if you look hard enough -- including a career-best 36.2 percent on 3s -- but the big-picture take is still that Brown makes life too hard on himself by forcing long 2s. He took more than a third of his shots from 16 to 23 feet and made only 35.3 percent of them; a year earlier, he did a similar thing and made just 32.8 percent.
His shot creation has some value, producing the third-highest scoring rate on the Suns, but the profusion of long 2s largely explains why such an athletic guard can have such a poor free throw rate. Brown also created little for others, sporting the third-worst assist ratio among shooting guards.
Defensively, it's a similar story. Brown is athletic but undersized, and, although he rarely fouls, his overall impact isn't what you might expect. His amazing Synergy numbers from 2010-11 appear to be either an outlier or an error, as he ranked below average last season, and his other data supported the conclusion that he was pretty ordinary at this end.
:JARED DUDLEY, SF
+ Smart, sound combo forward who will make open 3s and crash boards.+ Limited athlete but a solid defender because of smarts and intensity.+ Struggles to create shots. Good cutter off ball and improved midrange shooter.
Dudley's big-picture stats looked similar to the previous season's, but one notable item is that he has established himself as one of the league's elite shooters on long 2s. Dudley was second in the NBA in shooting percentage from 16 to 23 feet, making 49.4 percent, and it comes on the heels of a 45.9 percent mark a year earlier.
He's also pretty good from beyond 23 feet, making 38.3 percent of his treys, and drew fouls at a high rate for a jump shooter, thanks mainly to his offensive rebounding prowess. Sum it up and Dudley ranked fourth among small forwards in true shooting percentage, with a low turnover ratio, and his average of 16.3 points per 40 minutes was in the top third of 3s, as well. It might not look like much, but he has become a very effective offensive player.
Defensively, Dudley basically stopped going for steals -- he dropped from ninth to 53rd among small forwards in steals per minute -- but also cut his foul rate. He doesn't move terribly well, but he's a smart defender who takes charges and masks his limitations well. Opposing small forwards had just a 12.9 player efficiency rating against him last season, according to 82games.com, although his other stats were average at best.
:LUIS SCOLA, PF
+ Skillful, physical left-block post scorer who loves to turn over left shoulder.+ Average athlete and a bit undersized. Good midrange set shot. Turnover-prone.+ Mediocre defender. Really struggles against perimeter 4s. Won't block shots.
Historically, undersized 4s don't age well, and last season we saw the first signs of slippage from Scola at age 31. The Rockets had other motives for using the amnesty on him, but there was also the underlying fear of how this movie might end with three expensive years left on his deal.
Scola was slightly less effective as a shooter, but his turnover ratio also jumped, making it an increasingly dubious proposition to keep feeding him in the post. He doesn't draw a lot of fouls and has a mediocre true shooting percentage, so if he's turning it over, too, there's not a whole lot of point in the exercise. He has come around as a midrange shooter, however, making 44.3 percent of his long 2s while trying more than six a game.
Defensively, Scola's rebound rate slipped, but he put up very respectable numbers in other phases and defended 4s about as well as he ever has. However, Houston frequently used him as a 5 in small-ball lineups, and this was pretty much like pouring gasoline on an open flame. He can't protect the rim at all and gives up too many inches to make this work. With the Suns having a couple of real centers at their disposal, it seems unlikely we'll see a repeat of this.
:MARCIN GORTAT, C
+ Mobile big man who is very effective rolling to basket in screen-and-roll.+ Good rebounder. Thin frame, needs more strength. Faked off feet easily.+ Has some post moves. Can make midrange J. Runs floor well. Blocks shots.
Gortat had a career year as Steve Nash's roll man, massively boosting his offensive production at virtually no cost in accuracy. Scoring nearly a point every two minutes while shooting 55.5 percent with virtually no turnovers, Gortat was both productive and efficient. His turnover ratio was the third-lowest among centers, and he shot a stellar 71.5 percent in the basket area.
Perhaps most promisingly, he also showed a variety of moves away from the basket -- moves he might need this season as more of a go-to option. Gortat shot 40.6 percent on jumpers beyond 10 feet and 44.4 percent in the tricky 3-9 foot range. He has shown he can hit hook shots with either hand and could see a lot more work in straight post-ups this season.
Gortat supplements his scoring with excellent rebounding, finishing 12th among centers in defensive rebound rate. The rest of his defensive game is solid but unspectacular. He moves fairly well against the pick-and-roll and will block shots, but he also has a thin frame and leaves his feet too easily.
:MICHAEL BEASLEY, F
+ Left-handed goofball combo forward with quick first step. Good shooter for size.+ Poor decision-maker. Goes left nearly every time and never passes.+ Subpar defensive player. A tweener and doesn't always play hard. Better as a 4.
He still took terrible shots, but at least Minnesota's offense was no longer designed for him to take terrible shots. Beasley's usage rate fell considerably, and I think we can all agree that's a good thing. The disappointing part was that Beasley couldn't improve his percentages any, and seems plagued by a lovefest with contested 18-footers.
Beasley is actually a good shooter. Despite the degree of difficulty on many of his shots, he made 40.4 percent of his long 2s and 37.6 percent of his 3s. The problem is that he has made the game incredibly difficult for himself. He never passes -- he was dead last among small forwards in pure point rating -- and he virtually never gets to the rim, either.
That's inexcusable; Beasley has a great first step to his left that should propel him to lots of fouls and layups, but less than a quarter of his shots came in the basket area. He made 62.4 percent of them, but he just didn't take enough, and that killed his percentages.
Defensively, Beasley rebounded well for a small forward and showed some progress toward becoming a halfway decent player. He was torched by some of the better small forwards, and I still think he's better off as a 4, but his defensive metrics were pretty solid (for a change) and he seemed more focused than in previous seasons.
:CHANNING FRYE, C
+ One of game's best catch-and-shoot big men. Rare 3-pointer-shooting center.+ Slender build but can post up small guards. Poor rebounder for size.+ Subpar defender. Blocks shots, but lacks strength. Only average mobility.
Frye's bizarre odd-year, even-year pattern continued last season, as his player efficiency rating jumped more than two points in the even year. This happened despite his playing nearly all his minutes at power forward -- historically, he has played better as a center. (And the trade of Robin Lopez likely sends him back to that position).
Frye actually had a bad season shooting, making just 34.6 percent of his 3s and 36.8 percent of his long 2s, but stepped up his play in other respects -- his rebound rate was his best in four years, and he set career highs in blocks and foul shooting. This offers some encouragement for the coming season. He almost certainly will get plenty of open looks as a backup 5, and convert more of them, so one hopes he can finally snap his pattern of year-to-year yo-yos.
Defensively, Frye will never be Dwight Howard, but he had one of his better seasons. Playing power forward left him less exposed to strength matchups, and he appeared to do a better job contesting the perimeter than he had done in previous stints at the 4. I wouldn't say he was good, by any stretch -- opposing 4s still registered a 17.6 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com -- but his Synergy and on-court versus off-court data were pretty solid. Moving to center, one hopes he can at least maintain the increases in rebounding and shot-blocking from a year ago.
:MARKIEFF MORRIS, F
+ Tough big man who can shoot midrange jumper. Good rebounder.+ Can finish but not a creator. Has limited post game. Not a great ball handler.+ Good size and defensive mindset. Not a shot-blocker but plays hard.
Morris had a great start but faded as the season went on, shooting only 39.9 percent from the floor overall and a miserable 42.0 percent on 2s. He shot a lot of jumpers but didn't shoot them particularly well, making a quasi-respectable 34.7 percent of his 3s but just 31.7 percent of his long 2s. Also, he needs to improve his low-post and finishing skills, as he shot just 50.1 percent inside 10 feet. Combined with a low foul rate, that meant his true shooting percentage was among the worst at his position.
Morris' other stats were more encouraging. His rebounding and ballhandling numbers were solid, and his rates of blocks and steals were in the top third of power forwards. He's active, at least, and doesn't seem overmatched athletically.
Nonetheless, he has a lot of work to do to become a good defensive player. Morris had the highest foul rate among power forwards, with a whistle every 6.9 minutes. Opposing power forwards had an 18.3 player efficiency rating at his expense, according to 82games.com, and his Synergy numbers were terrible. It's not unusual for rookies to take their lumps, but Morris was old for a rookie at 22 and needs to show a sharp development curve to make up for it.
:KENDALL MARSHALL, PG
+ Pure point guard who makes the right pass every time. Great size for position.+ B athlete at best. Might struggle defensively. Average shooter. Pathetic rebounder.
Marshall isn't an elite athlete by any stretch, and that's a concern as a pro. Despite standing 6-4, he had the worst rebound rate of any prospect in this year's draft, and he had unimpressive numbers on the other athletic indicators, too. He's not a great shooter, either, shooting less than 70 percent from the line in both seasons at North Carolina and 36.4 percent on 3s.
So why are we talking about him? Because he might be the second coming of Mark Jackson. Marshall is big and flat-out knows how to play; his court vision and knack for the hit-ahead pass are miles beyond any other point guard in this draft. Marshall's pure point rating, for example, was an insane 4.79; only five other prospects were above 1.00, and it goes without saying that Marshall's mark was the best of them.
:SEBASTIAN TELFAIR, PG
+ Small, quick point guard who can penetrate but struggles to finish.+ Much-improved midrange shooter. Drives to score; doesn't see floor.+ Quick but undersized defender. Effective against fast guards. Fouls too much.
Hey, since when could you shoot? Telfair has failed his whole career largely because opponents never had to respect his jumper, but his midrange game has quietly become very solid. In fact, he was second in the NBA last season in shooting from 10 to 23 feet -- not to mention second among Phoenix point guards -- by making 48.3 percent of his deliveries from that range (see chart). Let's just say the scouting report on going under screens against him needs updating.
Top Shooters From 10 to 23 Feet, 2011-12Player Team FG%Steve Nash Phx 52.7Sebastian Telfair Phx 48.3Dirk Nowitzki Dal 48.1Tim Duncan SA 47.1Charles Jenkins GS 46.6Min. 150 attempts. Source: Hoopdata.com
It's not all good news; Telfair made only 31.4 percent of his 3s and remains an abysmal finisher (35-for-85 inside 10 feet), and his assist ratio remains poor. The difference is that the midrange J's let him generate some points while lowering his turnover risk. He still turns it over too much, but he cut his rate considerably last season thanks to the jumper. The downside to that, of course, is that, if his jump-shooting numbers regress, he's back to being 11th-man fodder.
Defensively, Telfair's lack of size gives him some problems, but he has good feet and overall did a solid job. The Suns gave up more points with him on the court, but that doesn't seem directly traceable to Telfair -- his Synergy grades were excellent, and opposing point guards had just a 13.2 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com. He has to quit fouling, though; Telfair was whistled once every 7.5 minutes, a phenomenally high rate for a point guard, so high that only one player at his position exceeded it.
:WES JOHNSON, GF
+ Big wing who played out of position at 2. Spot-up shooter who can't shoot.+ Very poor ball handler with weak offensive instincts. Doesn't draw fouls.+ Solid defensive player with good leaping ability. Can block shots.
The 2012 winner of the Darko Milicic How Long Do We Have to Keep Pretending He's Good Award, Johnson started the whole season despite contributing virtually nothing, and it only seemed to further shatter whatever shards of confidence he had left. Johnson shot 31.4 percent on 3s and 32.4 percent on long 2s, and 70.6 percent at the line. He can't shoot, basically, yet nearly all his shots are jumpers because he's a terrible ball handler.
Switching from the 2 to the 3 might help him some, but he played quite a bit of 3 last season and, statistically, wasn't any better. For the season, Johnson had the second-worst player efficiency rating among shooting guards, the third-worst scoring rate, free throw rate and usage rate, and the fourth-worst true shooting percentage. I'm not sure how much more evidence the Minnesota Timberwolves needed that he can't cut it, but he started 64 games anyway.
Johnson has shown more promise at the defensive end, finishing fourth among shooting guards in blocks per minute and posting a solid rebound rate. But let's not get carried away -- Synergy rated him below average; the Wolves gave up more points with him on the court; and he fouled far more often than the average wing.
He's already 25, so this is about it for his ceiling. I still can't get over the fact that he started the entire season for a playoff contender while playing this badly; if he hadn't been the No. 4 pick a year earlier (ahead of DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Gordon Hayward and Paul George, among others), there's absolutely no chance this would have happened. His year-end change of scenery is probably the best thing for both parties.
:JERMAINE O'NEAL, C
+ Strong low-post defender and shot-blocker. Good team defender. Takes charges.+ Solid rebounder. Low-percentage offensive player. Shoots line-drive jumpers.+ Declining athleticism, can't score inside anymore. Injury-prone.
O'Neal suffered through another injury-plagued season, playing only 25 games after completing just 24 a year earlier, and the drop-off in his performance has been fairly staggering. He had a single-digit player efficiency rating for a second straight season and has become particularly useless offensively, averaging just 8.8 points per 40 minutes. In fact, the Celtics improved dramatically almost as soon as they stopped playing him.
That said, he offers Phoenix a third center who can still play solid defense. O'Neal led the entire NBA in offensive fouls drawn per minute, and, even in his diminished state, he was eighth among centers in blocks per minute and had a strong defensive plus/minus. Additionally, the miracle workers on Phoenix's training staff might be able to do a better job keeping him in the lineup.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:44 (thirteen years ago)
detroit pistons
BRANDON KNIGHT, PG
+ Scoring-minded, very quick combo guard who can slash to hoop. Drives to score.+ Middling shooter with a line-drive jumper from under his chin. Low free throw rate.+ Long-armed defender with tremendous lateral quickness. Rebounds well for size.
I wasn't wild about Knight a season ago and I'm still not now, as he added to the Pistons' collection of shoot-first combo guards by posting the fifth-worst pure point rating at his position and struggling to convert off the dribble. Knight made 38.0 percent of his 3s, but his form seemed to break down off the bounce -- he made only 31.9 percent of his 2s between 10 and 23 feet, which largely came on dribble moves. And while he got to the basket at a decent clip, he neither drew fouls nor found teammates.
Knight's defensive numbers weren't great either, but long-term this is where I like him best. He moves very well laterally and likely just needs to add strength and learn the ropes of NBA defense before he'll be a quality defender. He's a low-risk guy who had one of the lowest steal rates at his position, but at 6-3 with long arms he'll be able to check a lot of 2s in time.
Perhaps Knight's best stat is 21, his age in December. That he was able to be even halfway decent in the NBA at the age of 20 is a strong sign of his potential. He's not a starting-caliber point guard and may never become one, but his potential as a scorer and defender could make him an ace third guard.
:RODNEY STUCKEY, SG
+ Huge combo guard who can overpower small guards on post-ups. Poor shooter.+ Quick and can get to basket; draws heaps of fouls but not a great finisher.+ Struggles to defend quick guards. Average distributor more comfortable at the 2.
Well, better late than never. After four years of watching their 6-5 point guard play exactly like a shooting guard and struggle to defend quick point guards, the Pistons finally had the genius idea that maybe he should be playing the wing. Unfortunately, they replaced him with another shoot-first point guard who did most of the same things, so they didn't really come out ahead on the bargain.
As for Stuckey, his assist and turnover numbers look a whole lot better when you're comparing him to other shooting guards -- suddenly he has the sixth-best pure point rating at the position. But the big item remains free throws. Stuckey ranked fourth among shooting guards with a phenomenal 0.54 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, giving him one of the best secondary percentages at his position despite rarely making 3s. Complementing that was the one aspect where Stuckey shoots well -- the foul line, hitting 83.4 percent.
Stuckey took nearly half his shots at the rim and while he wasn't great, hitting 53.3 percent, he was good enough once you factored in all the fouls. On the perimeter it was a different story. He hit just 31.7 percent of his 3s and 35.7 percent of his long 2s, so overall his shooting percentage was really ordinary; it's all the fouls that make him an effective offensive player. One notable change that might help would be to increase Detroit's sluggish tempo; Stuckey is pretty good in transition but gets few chances on this team.
Defensively, Stuckey's stats are a mixed bag. Synergy rated him one of the worst guards in basketball but his plus-minus and opponent numbers were solid, and in previous seasons Stuckey rated as an average defender. Subjectively that's how he looked too, so we'll stick with that presumption until more emphatic proof emerges otherwise.
:TAYSHAUN PRINCE, SF
+ Long-armed, rail-thin wing lefty. Quality defender who rarely gambles or fouls.+ Mostly shoots midrange jumpers but can finish at rim. Runs floor well.+ Has point forward's handle but lacks burst off dribble. Rarely turns it over.
Prince declined noticeably at both ends, but that didn't stop the Pistons from pretending he was still good late in the fourth quarter of every close game. I'm baffled why Detroit kept running plays for him, as he was basically a taker of long 2-pointers that didn't go in. Prince took nearly seven a game but made only 38.5 percent of them; along with that, he had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position and finished 64th out of 67 small forwards in secondary percentage.
Prince did bring some positives -- he's an excellent passer and never turns it over, so he could operate almost as a point guard (especially since this team didn't have a real one). He finished seventh among small forwards in pure point rating as a result.
However, his shooting percentage at the rim declined noticeably, from a league-leading 77.5 percent to 63.3 percent, and at the defensive end he was much more wobbly as a stopper than the previous season. While his results were still OK -- a solid Synergy rating and an 11.4 opponent PER according to 82games.com -- the Pistons gave up 7.4 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
The most notable thing about Prince's defense, though, is that he's the league's most extreme non-gambler. He uses his long arms to play two steps off his man, and as a result virtually never steals the ball or fouls. He had the lowest rate of both steals and fouls among small forwards, and the fourth-lowest foul rate in the entire league.
:JASON MAXIELL, PF
+ Undersized, strong, tough big man with explosive two-footed leaping ability.+ Good finisher but no post game or ball skills. Can make open jumper.+ Improved conditioning. Lack of size an impediment on defense. Poor rebounder.
Maxiell got in better shape and somewhat revived his flagging career, with the help of Detroit's decision to keep him in the starting lineup most of the season. He started 42 games, even though he was 53rd among power forwards in PER and average at best on defense, and while he improved his rebound rate he was still miles short of his best seasons.
It appears he's lost some of the explosion that made him such a force as an undersized frontcourt player. Maxiell shot only 58.9 percent in the basket area and relied much more on midrange jumpers, shooting a halfway-decent 39.0 percent on them but taking nearly half his shots outside 10 feet -- a red flag for a supposed energy guy. In a related story, he drew dramatically fewer fouls, so although he scored a bit more often, his true shooting percentage was just 55th at his position. Producing just 11.6 points per 40 minutes with an average rebound rate, it wasn't clear what he brought to the table.
Defensively, Maxiell's muscle spared Greg Monroe some bad strength matchups, and this was probably the best case for his being on the floor. While his numbers weren't great -- opposing power forwards had a 17.5 PER against him -- the Pistons played better with him on the court and he blocks shots.
:GREG MONROE, C
+ Long lefty with great nose for rebounds. Below-rim finisher. Makes foul shots.+ Iffy outside shooter who can handle and pass. Doesn't block shots.+ Tweener defensively. Lacks muscle for 5 but slow for a 4. Struggles in help D.
Monroe had a breakout second season, and while some weaknesses remain it's getting pretty easy to imagine him showing up on an All-Star team in the near future. He averaged nearly a point every two minutes with a strong true shooting percentage, showing a low-post game and some face-up skills while having great hands and a knack around the basket.
Monroe isn't particularly athletic and gets turned away at the rim quite a bit, plus he tends to bring the ball back into defenders when he goes up. That said, he got himself more than seven shots a game in the basket area, and if you do that it's easy to be a high-percentage player. It's away from the basket where he can still improve; Monroe shot a lot of short hooks but made only 39.3 percent from 3 to 9 feet, and shot just 35.7 percent from 10 feet and beyond.
In addition, Monroe is already a good passer and will carve up double-teams once they inevitably start coming at him in greater quantity. Despite a lack of muscle he was also in the top quarter of centers in rebound rate at both ends; he has long arms, good anticipation and catches everything.
His biggest drawback is defense, where he's not physical, is occasionally sluggish, and doesn't block shots. Only seven centers blocked fewer shots per minute, although his length did lead to a high rate of steals. He didn't look great in one-on-one defense, but in help situations he was infinitely worse -- either late arriving or MIA entirely. Opposing centers had a 19.3 player efficiency rating against him, according to 82games.com, and the Pistons gave up 9.4 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. That's simply unacceptable, and will have to improve dramatically for him to achieve stardom.
:JONAS JEREBKO, F
+ High-energy combo forward who can run floor and moves well without ball.+ Solid defender with good size, may have lost some athleticism.+ Mediocre outside shooter with few ball skills. Needs to improve handle.
It was a pretty amazing comeback for Jerebko, who returned after missing the entire 2010-11 season with a torn Achilles and put up nearly identical numbers to his rookie season. The similarity is scary -- nearly all his metrics were within a few percentage points of each other.
Jerebko still needs to improve his long-range game, but the fact he shot 47.6 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet is an encouraging sign; he just needs to extend that range out and he'll be a real threat as a scorer. Despite looking a bit less athletic than before the injury, Jerebko still can outrun most opponents at the 4 -- his likely long-term position -- and get clean looks on the perimeter. Additionally, his constant movement without the ball gets him plenty of easy layups.
Defensively, he wasn't great; I'd argue this is where the injury was more noticeable, as he struggled to contain active 4s. Opposing power forwards had a 17.2 PER against him, according to 82games.com, and his help defense was inconsistent. He hadn't played in a year and didn't have a ton of experience to start, so he should get better.
:ANDRE DRUMMOND, C
+ Long athletic center with NBA body and athleticism. Not a bad shooter.+ Terrible from free throw line. Inconsistent and doesn't always play hard.
Drummond is potentially an All-Star center, and the fact he was the second-youngest player in the draft indicates he may be undervalued. He's 7-0, 280 pounds at the age of 18, so he's going to be an enormous presence in the paint. In fact, the risk is on the other side -- that he'll become too big and struggle with injuries and conditioning. Controlling his weight will need to be a major focus as he gets into his 20s.
Drummond also has to develop his skills considerably, with that fact underscored by his abysmal 29.5 percent free throw shooting. His rebounding was also surprisingly tame for a player of his size and athleticism, and his low-post game needs considerable work. His focus is also a question; he's not a bad kid, but nobody's sure how much passion he has for the game. For now, he projects as a DeAndre Jordan clone, but given how young he is there is a fairly enormous upside.
:CHARLIE VILLANUEVA, PF
+ Jump-shooting combo forward who can play over top of most defenses.+ Among league's worst defensive players. Lazy, lead-footed and a tweener.+ Mediocre athlete. Poor shot selection. Can post up on switches. Solid rebounder.
Villanueva is a true rarity -- a talented offensive player who averages better than a point every two minutes, yet one who is so amazingly bad on defense that it still renders him unplayable. Despite his big contract, Villanueva played only bits and pieces of 13 games last season and doesn't appear to be in the team's plans. The only remaining question is whether the Pistons use him in a trade or use their amnesty provision to release him next summer.
:WILL BYNUM, PG
+ Small, powerfully built score-first guard with explosive leaping ability.+ Not a great outside shooter or distributor. Good burst but gets out of control.+ Major defensive liability due to lack of size. Tends to gamble and foul.
Bynum missed half the season with a foot injury and probably wishes he missed the other half too, as his production took a dramatic turn for the worse. As a short guard dependent on quick bursts, the worry is that he lost a step and at 29 might not be able to get it back.
Look more closely, however, and his jumper appears to be the biggest culprit. Bynum hit only 26.2 percent of his shots outside the basket area, an impossibly bad mark that is almost certainly a small-sample fluke.
More worrisome is the sharp decline in his assist rate. Bynum ended up with the worst pure point rating of any point guard at -1.95; while he's a shoot-first guard, this is taking it to a bit of an extreme. Combined with the fact his shots weren't going in, it made Bynum difficult to keep on the court.
Defensively, he's still a liability, sporting the third-highest foul rate at his position while, according to 82games.com, opposing point guards posted a 16.5 player efficiency rating against him. That makes it even harder to justify playing him when the shots aren't falling; between that, the lack of passing and the subpar defense, he really brought no positives to the court in his limited minutes last season. He's better than that, but it's fair to ask if it's enough better to belong in a rotation.
:COREY MAGGETTE, SF
+ Foul-magnet forward with strong first step to right. Has lost explosiveness.+ Mediocre outside shooter. Has rep as selfish. Rarely passes. Injury prone.+ Poor defensive player. Strong but doesn't play hard or move well laterally.
The Bobcats got Maggette to do Maggette things, and did he ever. Miss 34 games with injuries? Check. Shoot every time he got it? Check. Draw a bajillion fouls? Check. Mail it in on defense? Check.
The hope was that Maggette's shot creation and foul-drawing skills would offset those other negatives, but he's lost a step and doesn't explode to the basket as easily. Maggette shot only 37.3 percent and his free throw rate, while still phenomenal (it led all small forwards), pales next to the ridiculous heights of his prime. As a result, his true shooting percentage was slightly under the league average rather than in the high 50s or low 60s, and at that level he doesn't have much use as a player.
Maggette's midrange game also deserted him, as he made only 26.3 percent of his 2s beyond 15 feet. That number will likely rebound some, but I'm not sure it matters in the big picture. He had the third-worst pure point rating at his position, again indicative of his tunnel vision offensively, and defensively he remains subpar.
If he can regain enough zip to be a go-to option for the second unit, then he has some use, but that's the ceiling. He can't space the floor, he can't guard, and the past two seasons he hasn't been effective enough to iso him and get out of the way. I'm not sure what the Pistons do with him besides wait for his contract to expire.
:AUSTIN DAYE, SF
+ Tall, thin combo forward with accurate long-range jump shot. B athlete.+ Has increased activity defensively, but struggles on boards. Can't get to rim.+ Good shot-blocker. Solid rebounder. Lacks great handle. Doesn't draw fouls.
That stampede you heard was the remaining passengers getting off the Daye bandwagon. A jump-shooting forward who couldn't make jump shots, Daye offered little at either end to offset his wayward shooting.
And wayward it was: He made 21.0 percent of his 3s and 27.4 percent of his 2s beyond 10 feet, which for an alleged shooter is a bit of a problem. Daye had the worst 2-point shooting percentage of any power forward at an abysmal 36.4 percent, and the worst overall shooting percentage at 32.2 percent. Did I mention he didn't draw fouls either? That left Daye also the worst at his position in true shooting percentage and player efficiency rating.
The "good" news is he was only the second worst in rebound rate. Actually, the rest of his defense wasn't bad -- he ranked in the top 15 of power forwards in both blocks and steals per minute, and saw fewer overwhelming strength matchups given the increasing prevalence of small ball around the league. Unfortunately, his offense made him completely unplayable, and unless his shot recovers his career is in jeopardy.
:KYLE SINGLER, F
+ Tall wing with long arms and good handle. Rebounds well for a wing player.+ Has rep as a good shooter but didn't shoot well in college. Struggles to finish.+ B athlete who lacks lateral quickness and strength. May struggle on defense.
Singler had a good shooting year in Spain last season, but that was about all he did well; his translated Euroleague stats suggest he'll be a major liability, as he had surprisingly bad turnover numbers and made less than half his 2s.
Despite his rep, his shooting skills are still suspect, too -- Singler shot 32.1 percent on 3s in his final season at Duke and never got into the 40s in his career. He shot 80 percent from the line over his final two seasons but was only in the mid-70s in Spain, and didn't score at a particularly high rate in either locale.
Singler rebounds well for a perimeter player and his passing and ball skills may prove helpful in a Mike Dunleavy kind of way. But he's not as athletic or as skillful with the ball as Dunleavy, and appears to be a worse shooter too.
:KIM ENGLISH, SG
+ Deadly outside shooter with good size for a wing. Struggles to create own shot.+ Must add strength and round out other facets of game. Poor foul shooter.
English is ancient for a rookie -- he turns 24 in September -- and his senior year at Missouri practically screams fluke from the hilltops. He shot under 40 percent each of his first three seasons and then erupted for 52.1 percent as a senior, including adding nearly 10 percentage points to his 3-point mark.
Obviously one can't take that performance at face value, but one point in his favor is that English wowed observers with his shooting in workouts. An equally large concern is the other stuff -- he's not a great athlete and he's going to struggle to defend his position; heck he's not even a good foul shooter (between 72 and 73 percent all four years at Missouri). He may be able to scrape out a living as a catch-and-shoot specialist from the weak side, but that's about where the upside ends.
:KHRIS MIDDLETON, SF
+ Long-armed, slender wing with good midrange game; gets shot away easily.+ Poor long-range shooter. Good court vision. Gets lots of steals.
Middleton had the second-lowest free throw rate of any draft prospect and shot 26.0 percent on 3s, but an injury-plagued 2011-12 skewed those numbers downward from the previous season.
A season earlier he hit a more respectable 36.1 percent from downtown and drew fouls with much greater frequency, at least indicating some potential for him to be a decent offensive player at the pro level. He also had a very high steals rate for a player of his size. Nonetheless, he's a B prospect at best and may need to earn his living overseas for a while. His best skill, his ability to launch midrange J's over defenders, isn't a terribly valuable one, and it's not clear if he can hang athletically at this level.
:SLAVA KRAVTSOV, C
+ Big, long-armed center who can rebound, block shots and draw fouls.+ Questionable motor and feel. Can run floor. Not a shooter. Foul prone.
Kravstov is the mystery meat of this year's free-agent class, a 25-year-old Ukrainian who didn't play in a high-level league last season but put up some very solid numbers. His high rebound and free throw rates may translate, but the biggest thing for Detroit is to get some more beef inside to help out Greg Monroe. If he can match up against physical centers, use some fouls and not kill the Pistons on offense, he'll be worth the low-budget price.
:TERRENCE WILLIAMS, SF
+ Athletic wing who can create shots for others. Sees floor well, but turnover-prone.+ Outstanding rebounder for size. Decent defender. Flaky personality an issue.+ Terrible shooter who struggles with jumper, finishing and free throws.
The interesting part of Williams' season was that he actually shot fairly well from outside. He made 34.6 percent of his 3s and 43.6 percent of his long 2s, which is perfectly respectable. His problem, instead, was that he only converted 47.2 percent of his shots inside 10 feet.
Combined with a low free throw rate, Williams again had an abysmal TS% -- though not as bad as in previous seasons -- and it offset some real benefits. Williams is an amazing rebounder for his size, especially defensively, and he's a good passer. He's still too turnover-prone, but he can be a point-forward type if he improves as a finisher and makes better decisions.
Alas, he's already 25 and time's a wasting. He should be a good defensive player but his effort has been up and down -- he didn't draw a single offensive foul last season, for instanced -- and he's a bit undersized for a 3. If he shoots as well as he did last season he's a rotation payer, but there's a healthy doubt about the sustainability of those numbers.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:46 (thirteen years ago)
houston rockets:JEREMY LIN, PG
+ Legendary superhero who once played point guard for the Knicks. + Excellent penetrator who draws heaps of fouls. Looks more to score than to pass.+ Turnover-prone. Shot very well from midrange. Active defender who gets steals.
Lin enjoyed about the most sensational two-week entry into a team's starting lineup that a player could possibly experience, before a knee injury abruptly ended the Linsanity a month later. But taking a step back and looking at the big picture, the standout feature of Lin's season was activity -- some of it good, some of it bad. Shots, turnovers, steals, fouls, free throws -- Lin created all of them in much greater quantity than most.
In particular, the fact he could be such a high-volume shot creator speaks well for his future, and his worst trait (turnovers) is one that often portends improvement in future seasons. Lin led all point guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt at 0.48 and also led all guards in fouls drawn at more than one every six minutes, according to NBA.com. In fact, only four players in the league drew more fouls per minute, and they were all frontcourt players.
Another notable feature was how well he shot from midrange. Not known as a shooter, he made 44.9 percent of his 2s from beyond 10 feet, which is simply outstanding. He didn't shoot 3s well, however (32.0 percent), and I'd say there's considerable doubt whether he'll shoot so well from midrange again.
As a point guard, Lin makes the hit-ahead pass well, but in the halfcourt he looks mainly to score. The problem is that he is so mistake prone, ranking 63rd out of 70 point guards in turnover ratio and 56th in pure point rating. Some argue he's really an undersized 2 for this reason; in particular, his left hand needs work. He did, however, get a high percentage of his assists at the rim, a good omen going forward.
Defensively, the activity theme continued. Lin drew mixed reviews for his work, with high rates of steals (seventh among point guards) and blocks (15th) and a strong rebound rate, but a vulnerability to speedy guards and a tendency to gamble. The Knicks defended better with Lin on the court, but the bulk of his minutes came when the Knicks' worst defenders were injured. Let's just say the jury's still out at this end, but he shows promise at becoming an impactful, ball-hawking disruptor.
:KEVIN MARTIN, SG
+ Quick, lean scoring guard with a great shot fake and penchant for drawing fouls.+ Has odd, left-leaning release but is very accurate. Iffy handle but a good first step.+ Improved defender but lacks strength and intensity. Has been injury-prone.
Martin took 259 shots at the rim in 2010-11. Last season he took 63. Yes, he played half as many minutes, but even after adjusting for the playing time this was a staggering decline. After a season in which he outscored every shooting guard in the league on a per-minute basis, Martin spent much of 2011-12 as a spot-up shooter. His prolific free-throw rate cratered too -- from 8.4 a game to just 4.5 -- and as a result Martin's normally phenomenal true shooting percentage was pretty ordinary last season.
It didn't help that the spot-up shooting didn't work out so great either; Martin made only 34.7 percent of his 3s. A 42.5 percent mark on long 2s was more in line with his history, and his assist and turnovers were some of the best of his career. As a result, he was still a fairly effective offensive player ... he just wasn't the lethal, highly efficient killer he'd been a year earlier.
Martin also missed 26 games, contributing to a worrisome trend: He's missed at least 20 games in four of the past five seasons. Even the pros were cons last year; Martin had a career-high assist ratio but also had some of the league's cheapest dimes.
Defensively, at least, he showed some positive signs. Martin normally ranks among the league's most flammable defenders, but last season he was passable. Not great, but passable. The Rockets gave up 1.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court and Synergy gave him poor grades, but opposing shooting guards had just a 12.6 PER against him.
:CHANDLER PARSONS, SF
+ Second-year forward who has great size and athleticism for his position.+ Average shooter from the floor, terrible from the line. Good handle, likes to go left.+ Solid defender with great hands, but needs to add strength and game awareness.
Houston's second-round dice roll on Parsons paid off, as he beat out its first-round pick to take over the starting small forward spot and contributed a highlight reel of follow jams. While he might want to rein himself in a bit on flying in for tip-dunks -- it looks great when it works, but starts a 4-on-3 the other way when it doesn't -- he showed himself to be an NBA-caliber athlete with size and ball skills.
Now he needs to work on the shooting. Parsons is barely passable from outside (33.7 percent on 3s, 35.8 percent on long 2s) and positively hideous from the free-throw line, where his 55.1 percent mark included at least one that was banked in by accident. He rarely draws fouls, perhaps in hopes of avoiding the stripe, but he needs to up that part of his game too.
Defensively, he needs to add strength, but one can see him as a stopper against big wings down the road. He has great hands and athleticism and, even as a rookie, his defensive stats were solid -- Houston was slightly better than break-even with him on the floor and Synergy gave him solid grades too. Also, he is big enough that he can play smallball 4, and often did.
It's still not clear if all this adds up to a long-term starter, but for a second-rounder he was a nice find who should be a rotation player for several years.
:TERRENCE JONES, PF
+ Long-armed, left-handed 4 with 3-point range and excellent ball skills.+ Inconsistent shooter. Motor, attitude major questions. High basketball IQ.
Jones has drawn comparisons to Lamar Odom as a multi-talented combo forward who nonetheless frustrates with his knack for dialing in and out of games. Jones has a bigger frame, however, and has earned comparisons to another Kentucky product -- Antoine Walker -- for his zest for 3-pointers despite a mediocre outside shot.
At his size he's almost certainly a 4 in the NBA, and with the trend toward floor-spacers and ballhandlers at the position he could prove to be a very useful one. His main enemy right now seems to be himself. If he can just play hard all the time and go to the basket he'll be fantastic, but there's enough doubt about this that he was still available at No. 18.
:OMER ASIK, C
+ Mobile big man with great defensive awareness and shot-blocking skill.+ Mistake-prone offensive player. Brings ball down around basket. Can finish.+ Outstanding pick-and-roll defender. Limited post game and ball skills.
Really? This guy? A lot of people are wondering why Houston invested $25 million in a stone-handed center who averaged only 8.4 points per 40 minutes, had the third-highest turnover ratio in the league (see Kendrick Perkins comment), shot 45.6 percent from the line and bears a shocking resemblance to Chef Linguini from the movie "Ratatouille."
Look deeper, though. Watch this guy play defense. Asik is a monster, one of the five or 10 best players in the league at this end. He was 10th among centers in blocks per minute, but that doesn't even begin to tell the story. Of all the players in the league to defend at least 200 plays last season, Synergy rated him first. The Bulls gave up 7.6 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, the second straight season they had a massive disparity in his minutes, and he finished fifth in the league in rebound rate and 10th among centers in blocks per minute.
In his second season, he's still improving too. Asik cut his foul rate but still has a ways to go -- last year's rate of one every eight minutes is still too high for a starter -- and his proclivity for defensive three-second violations has dipped as he's become more accustomed to the league's rules.
Offensively, he had the fifth-best free-throw rate in the league but couldn't make a foul shot -- including the crucial season-ending misses in the Philadelphia series. Improving that stroke would go a long way toward making him useful offensively. So would teaching him what a legal screen is, since he apparently has no idea. And while we're at it let's stick a catcher's mitt on his non-shooting hand.
But he can stink on offense and still have value -- his defense and rebounding are that good. That's why Houston made this bet.
:PATRICK PATTERSON, PF
+ Solidly built big man with a good midrange jumper. B athlete.+ Smart, physical player who should become a good defender.+ Subpar rebounder. Needs to draw fouls and refine his low-post game.
Patterson suffered through a hugely disappointing second season, as his one strength from his rookie season -- shooting percentage -- turned into a major weakness, while everything else either got worse or failed to improve. The Rockets tried to feature him in post-ups more, but he is hyper on the block and needs to slow down. In fact if they had just cut those plays out he might still have had a decent season -- Patterson shot only 37.6 percent from 3-to-9 feet but took 133 shots from that distance.
The good news is that he still makes midrange jumpers, hitting 41.1 percent of his long 2s; that was a decline from the unsustainably high 50 percent mark of his rookie year, but still shows he can be a real threat in the pick-and-pop. As usual with this type of player, he also had a very low turnover ratio and a pathetic free throw rate -- Patterson earned just 57 freebies the entire season.
Defensively, Patterson's rebounding was a real disappointment -- he finished 63rd out of 70 power forwards in defensive rebound rate. However, his other defensive metrics were pretty solid. Patterson isn't a great athlete but he's smart and fairly strong, and he should continue to be solid in this area. The problem is that the rest of his game morphed into the second coming of Malik Allen. He's a fringe rotation player if his production on offense and the glass doesn't improve.
:CARLOS DELFINO, SF
+ Mellow, solidly built wing who likes corner 3s. Rebounding has tailed off.+ Good handle and court vision but no burst. Has all but stopped drawing fouls.+ Solid defender. Average mobility but big with great hands.
Delfino had a solid season from outside the arc, making 36.0 percent while taking more than half his shots from out there. Inside? That was a bit of a disaster, unfortunately. Delfino shot 44.9 percent on 2s with the fifth-lowest foul rate among small forwards, and of equal concern was how rarely he got a shot at all. He averaged just 12.7 points per 40 minutes, so despite his usual solid ballhandling numbers, he was a net negative at the offensive end.
Delfino has also declined as a rebounder -- he was among the best at his position until two years ago, but has been below the league average since -- further indication that the 30-year-old has perhaps lost some athleticism.
That concern carries over to the defensive end. Delfino was third among small forwards in steals per minute, but the rest of his numbers were absolutely brutal. Opposing small forwards shredded him for a 19.7 PER, according to 82games.com, and Synergy graded him one of the worst defenders in the league. The Bucks also gave up 9.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
:JEREMY LAMB, SG
+ Long-armed wing with great lateral quickness. Potentially an elite defender.+ Good finisher at the rim and a decent outside shooter. Needs strength. Tends to coast.
Lamb has two elite-level skills, and that's what got him drafted in the lottery. First is his defense; at 6-5 with long arms and top-notch athleticism, he shows obvious potential as a wing stopper. He'll need to add muscle and dial up his intensity to get there, but the ability is clear.
Second, he's a superb finisher who shot 60 percent on 2s at Connecticut. While he's only average as a deep shooter, and his rebound rate was shockingly ordinary for such a good athlete, those flushes at the rim give him an important boost. He can probably get enough dunks and finishes to offset average outside shooting and limited shot-creation skills. If those skills can get him on the court, the 20-year-old Lamb should be able to develop considerably from there.
:ROYCE WHITE, PF
+ Ballhandling combo forward with great court vision. Strong, physical player.+ Drew tons of fouls as a collegian but is a bad foul shooter. Has had off-court issues.
White is an elite talent but slipped in the draft because of questions about his anxiety disorder, including a fear of flying. If he can keep his head together and get on planes he'll be a very unique player, one with a bruising physique but the ballhandling and passing skills of a guard. It's not clear whether he's a 3 or a 4, though at 261 pounds I'd say he's much more likely to be a 4 long-term. He'll be a bit undersized at that spot, but may make up for it with muscle.
Offensively, meanwhile, he'll have to upgrade his perimeter game or opponents will just lay off and sit on his drives. And it's not clear how that game fits when he's on the weak side -- he really needs the ball in his hands. Nonetheless, he could be a more scoring-minded, chiseled version of Boris Diaw, and that's a scary thought.
:JaJUAN JOHNSON, F
+ Long, slim forward who defends and blocks shots. Needs more strength.+ Limited post game and ball skills. Good midrange shooter with a high release.+ Very poor rebounder for his size. Runs the floor well. Has poor offensive instincts.
Johnson appeared in bits and pieces of 36 games and proved competent, if hardly exceptional, building some hope that he can establish a more regular role in his second season. A rail-thin 4, Johnson's biggest shortcoming is a lack of easy baskets. He drew just nine free throw attempts all season and nearly three-quarters of his shots were outside the basket area. While it's nice that he can space the floor, he wasn't all that good at it as a rookie (34.2 percent on long 2s) and can finish inside when he gets the chance.
Johnson also had low rates of rebounds and assists; one hopes he can expand those areas as he gains both strength and experience. But he was old for a rookie and turns 24 in February, so he doesn't have all day.
Defensively, his lack of muscle is also a worry, but given the shift toward small, floor-spacing 4s it may not hurt him that much. The limited data suggest he was quite good at this end as a rookie -- he had excellent Synergy ratings and permitted just a 6.6 PER to opposing power forwards, according to 82games.com; subjectively, he seemed mobile and long enough to be quite useful at this end.
:TONEY DOUGLAS, PG
+ Tough, defensive-minded combo guard who can pressure the ball.+ Perimeter shooter with a scorer's mentality. Rarely breaks down the defense.+ Short for a shooting guard but more comfortable off the ball. Good rebounder.
If you look up the word disaster in the dictionary you'll find Douglas' 2011-12 season. After two promising campaigns in New York, he was the opening day starting point guard and couldn't possibly have done more to lose his job, ranking among the bottom five point guards in six separate categories.
Douglas was a shoot-first point guard who couldn't shoot. He had the fourth-worst assist ratio and the third-worst pure point rating among point guards, so clearly distribution isn't his thing, and that might have been OK if he had provided scoring.
Worst TS%, 2011-12Player Team TS%Shawne Williams Bkn 37.2Toney Douglas NY 39.3Mike Bibby NY 39.4Austin Daye Det 39.8Ben Wallace Det 40.4Min. 500 minutes
Instead he was an empty trip machine, posting a horrifying 39.2 TS% that ranked as the worst mark of any point guard; only New Jersey's brutal Shawne Williams saved him from being the absolute worst (see chart). Douglas shot 38.7 percent on 2s and had one of the lowest free-throw rates in basketball (just 26 attempts all season), but the real killer was that he kept shooting 3s and kept missing them. After two solid seasons from downtown, Douglas slumped to 23.1 percent last season. Yuck.
The good news is that Douglas can't possibly shoot this badly again, and he's still a pretty solid defensive player. I don't think anyone will count on him as a starter again, but in the right environment he can be a useful combo guard.
:SHAUN LIVINGSTON, PG
+ Tall, slender, injury-prone point guard. Great court vision but forces passes.+ Terrible outside shooter. Can make short turnarounds from the mid-post.+ Good defensive player due to length and quickness. Strong rebounder.
Livingston's scoring numbers from 2010-11 seemed suspicious, and it turns out with reason -- his scoring rate fell right back to its historic level last season. So while his other numbers didn't change much, he was a pretty mediocre offensive player overall.
Livingston played mostly as a 2 last season and that was part of the reason for his scoring dip, as he could no longer post up tiny point guards for his offense. He still drew a lot of fouls and had a strong pure point rating for a wing, but spotting up isn't his thing -- he made only two 3-pointers all season.
Livingston did better from shorter ranges, hitting 39.3 percent of his long 2s. But his forays to the rim were surprisingly rare -- barely a quarter of his shots -- so he had a fairly low TS% and didn't create a ton of shots overall. Given his inability to space the floor he's much better off playing the point, and it appears he may move back there this season if Houston doesn't cut his partially guaranteed deal.
Defensively, the story improves. Livingston had a disappointingly low steals rate on the wing but had the length to guard the position effectively. His metrics were solid, if unspectacular, although power players can give him some trouble. Again, he's better off at the point where his length is a much bigger asset, as his defensive numbers as a 1 were consistently impressive.
:MARCUS MORRIS, F
+ Short-armed combo forward with a knack for scoring. Good midrange shooter.+ Tough, but an average athlete. Needs to improve his 3-point shot and get to the line.+ Below-average rebounder. Decent lateral quickness. Very good at using glass.
Morris played only 126 minutes as a rookie and would probably like to forget most of them, shooting just 29.6 percent in his token garbage-time moments with poor numbers across the board.
However, his D-League stint was much more promising. In 11 games for Rio Grande Valley, he averaged better than 27 points per 40 minutes with very solid rebound numbers. He made only 12 of his 47 3s, which is an issue -- although he fancies himself a wing, I still suspect his best long-term position is the 4. Players of this size that leave school as "tweeners" are nearly all full-time power forwards by the end of their rookie contract.
But a bigger question is whether he's an NBA player at all. Despite poor results in his NBA action, his D-League stint offered encouraging evidence that the answer is a yes.
:GREG SMITH, C
+ Post-up big man with catcher's mitts for hands. Wide, strong frame.+ Short for a 5. Not a great athlete or shot-blocker. Limited shooting range.+ Bad free-throw shooter. Motor is a question mark.
My Draft Rater had Smith as the 20th-best prospect in the 2011 draft, so I was pleased to see him play fairly well in his limited opportunities last season. Smith's hands are freakishly large, and you'll often see him catch entry passes with one hand and immediately palm it -- the way you or I might catch a tennis ball.
Smith played only eight games for the Rockets and did nothing special in his 69 minutes. However, he completely thrashed the D-League, and the 26-game, 732-minute sample is a difficult one to ignore. At that level he shot 66.8 percent with a high free throw rate; while his other rate stats were only decent, he showed he can be a potent finisher and low-post weapon. Alas, his 56.5 percent free throw mark continued his woes from the college level.
:GARY FORBES, F
+ Slashing wing who can score around the basket and draw fouls.+ B athlete and a mediocre outside shooter. Good scoring instincts.+ Improved defender but crushed as a smallball 4. Turnover prone.
If Forbes could just cut his turnovers, he'd be a very useful rotation player. Forbes is a sneaky-good scorer; he can get to the basket, draw lots of fouls, and is just good enough from outside that you have to respect his jumper. The problem is all the turnovers en route; he was 61st out of 67 small forwards in turnover ratio and 59th in pure point rating. Bizarrely, Toronto used him as a point forward at times, but he doesn't have great handle or court vision. With his defense already a question mark and his shot-creation just a mild positive, the sum of his efforts is a fringe player.
Forbes is getting better from outside, though: Last season he hit 34.5 percent of his 3s and 38.7 percent of his long 2s. He doesn't need to get that much better from those ranges to become a real multifaceted threat. Although Forbes isn't a great athlete, he's clever, ranking 12th among small forwards in free throw rate with his slashes to the cup.
Defensively, he made major strides last season. While nobody will put him on the All-Defense team, Forbes' metrics all improved substantially. Synergy placed him above the league average and the Raptors gave up fewer points per possession with him on the court; additionally, he cut his foul rate dramatically. The one exception was as a 4 in smallball lineups, where he was brutalized; he just doesn't have the size to play that way.
:JON BROCKMAN, PF
+ Aggressive, physical, undersized forward who loves to crash the offensive boards.+ Has few other offensive skills. Struggles to finish. Not a good outside shooter.+ Willing defender who enthusiastically uses his six fouls. Never blocks shots.
Brockman played just 35 games and his numbers descended for a third straight season, leaving his future very much in question. While he continues to be a beast on the glass, yanking down nearly a board every three minutes, his lack of an offensive role is a major impediment. Brockman made only a third of his shots and averaged a meager 6.3 points per 40 minutes; in fact, he nearly had more fouls than points.
Defensively, Brockman also has issues since he's undersized and he doesn't have great leaping ability. He blocked one shot in 239 minutes, an amazing feat for a frontcourt player, although his overt physicality can be useful in the right matchup. Brockman also has decent feet and defends passably against pick-and-rolls.
:DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS, C
+ Skillful, ballhandling big man in Toni Kukoc/Dejan Bodiroga mold. Left-handed.+ Average shooter and not much of an athlete. Sees floor well; a point forward.+ Defense a big question. Lacks muscle for 5, but may struggle guarding perimeter.
Motiejunas shot well in Europe, but that may be an outlier -- he has a line-drive shot with a low release point and it doesn't always rotate correctly off his hand. The biggest question about him is that he needs the ball in his hands to succeed and take advantage of his superior ballhandling skills for his size. But he may not be good enough to run an NBA offense through.
Defensively, he's going to struggle. He's neither strong, nor athletic, nor tough. He's fairly mobile, however, and that may be able to carry him through as a sixth man, point-forward type if his offense lives up to its billing.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:47 (thirteen years ago)
milwaukee bucks
BRANDON JENNINGS, PG
+ Quick lefty guard with scoring mentality. Improved outside shooter with high arc.+ Can get to basket but has trouble finishing. Can push tempo. Weak right hand.+ Quick but lacks size, strength. Gets deflections and rarely fouls. Will force shots.
Jennings had his best offensive season, improving his outside shot to the point that it was a real weapon. Jennings shot 33.2 percent on 3s and 38.7 percent on long 2s -- still not great, but good enough that the shots he created generally were useful ones. He created a lot too, averaging 21.6 points per 40 minutes with a decent true shooting percentage. It also helped that his league-worst at-the-rim shooting of the season before improved to 57.7 percent. Jennings did all this with the fifth-lowest turnover rate at his position, so his middling TS% seems more of an accomplishment in that context.
He still has his weaknesses, though. For one, he's not much of a passer, dishing just 6.3 assists per 40 minutes despite having the ball in his hands for most of the game. And he's still not comfortable going to the basket with his right hand, leading to a lot of missed opportunities. He ends up shooting a step-back J or a floater going that way rather than getting to the basket for layups or easy dimes.
Defensively, Jennings remains a bit inconsistent. The Bucks got absolutely plastered when he was on the court, giving up 10.8 points per 100 possessions more with Jennings playing, but I'm not sure how much of that is on him -- his other data wasn't bad, and the numbers from previous seasons suggest he's not terrible. (This also dovetails with the bizarre Beno Udrih data; see his comment for more.) Jennings is somewhat below average, perhaps, but not any worse than that -- he gets his hands on balls and rarely fouls. However, the addition of Monta Ellis magnifies his weaknesses guarding size and makes it harder to hide him from bad matchups. Both players need to step up their effort level to compensate.
:MONTA ELLIS, SG
+ Lightning-quick, shoot-first, right-dominant guard who likes midrange jumper.+ Quick hands on D but undersized with short arms and inconsistent effort.+ Poor shot selection. Underrated post player versus small guards. Great in transition.
Ellis passed the ball more willingly and made me want to throw things less often, so there's that. He posted a career-high assist rate and ranked second among all shooting guards in pure point rating. However, he still shoots entirely too many jumpers, especially from midrange, and thus has become something of a poor man's Carmelo Anthony -- a high scorer but one with middling efficiency and little defensive value.
Ellis took 10 shots a game (!) from beyond 10 feet but made only 30.8 percent of his 3s and 38.7 percent of his long 2s; additionally, many of those were quick hoists early in the clock when higher-value alternatives could have been explored. He finds the open man now, rather than passing only as a last resort, but he still stops the ball too much and doesn't seem to understand that a contested 20-footer off the dribble is a bad idea if there's still 18 on the shot clock.
Defensively, it's a similar story -- Ellis wasn't as bad as he used to be, but he was by no means good. Synergy rated him near the bottom of shooting guards, and while his other numbers were solid in Golden State they were pretty bad in Milwaukee. Ellis has a size disadvantage and short arms, but he also over-gambles and under-tries.
The obvious solution for Ellis would be to use him as a sixth man, where he'd be pretty much ideal as a shot creator with the second unit and his defensive shortcomings would be less problematic. Alas, it appears his rep as a big star gets in the way of using him this way.
:LUC RICHARD MBAH A MOUTE, SF
+ Long-armed, tough defensive player who can shut down wing scorers.+ Good rebounder. Can score around basket but a very poor outside shooter.+ Runs floor and plays with energy. Good teammate. Limited ball skills.
Mbah a Moute had a good offensive season by his modest standards, increasing his scoring output to a respectable 13.2 points per 40 minutes. He could have raised it even higher had he shot better than 64.1 percent from the line, as he had one of the better foul rates at his position.
Break it down, however, and the same problems lurk. He shot 66.7 percent in the basket area -- and 20.8 percent outside it. Ugh. This is a major problem because his ideal position otherwise would be the 3, where he is a massive defensive disruptor with his length, motor and lateral quickness.
Even as a 4, Mbah a Moute is a potent defensive force. Synergy rated him well above average and he had the eighth-best rate of steals at his position, while the Bucks gave up 3.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. All this is entirely consistent with his data from previous seasons -- he's an ace at the 3, and a plus defender but not quite as strong at the 4.
Unfortunately, his offensive limitations make him a better fit at the 4 ... and yet the Bucks are so overloaded in the frontcourt it's hard to see how he plays unless it's at the 3. He's a good, valuable player, but one wonders where exactly he fits in this picture.
:ERSAN ILYASOVA, PF
+ Pick-and-pop big man who can play physical and rebound. Will force shots.+ Limited leaping ability. Doesn't block shots and a below-average finisher.+ Can defend post but struggles to guard perimeter. Good foul shooter.
Fluke season or harbinger of what's to come? Ilyasova played dramatically better than anybody expected, taking over as a starter a third of the way through the season and posting some eye-popping box scores before cooling off toward the end.
Ilyasova's shooting stats certainly jump out -- he made 45.5 percent of his 3s and 39.7 percent of his long 2s -- but even more was all the chances he got himself at the basket. For a jump shooter, taking more than four field goal attempts a game at the rim is impressive. He pulled it off thanks to his offensive rebounding, off-ball movement and occasional show-and-go move. He also drew fouls at a strong clip for a jump shooter; between that and the 3s he had a good secondary percentage and ranked sixth at his position in true shooting percentage. All this came with a low cost in turnovers, although he still forces his jumper from time to time.
Ilyasova also blew up on the glass, including a 26-rebound game against New Jersey, and finished eighth at his position in rebound rate. The only weak point in his performance was at the defensive end, where he can still be a bit heavy-footed and seemed to slack off last season. Opposing power forwards feasted to an 18.2 PER against him according to 82games.com, and the Bucks gave up 4.9 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.
He won't shoot 45.5 percent on 3s again -- he was in the low 30s each of his three previous seasons -- but actually the rest of Ilyasova's season looks fairly sustainable, and he's only 25. The biggest concern isn't whether he can sustain most of his statistical improvement from last season, but whether he can bring a bit more defense along with it.
:SAMUEL DALEMBERT, C
+ Long, fleet center. Elite rebounder and shot-blocker. Not a post threat.+ Solid midrange shooter. Runs floor well. Very poor ball handler.+ Mobile defender but has bad instincts and constantly has hands down.
Dalembert is turning into an odd-year, even-year guy, narrowly missing out on his second Fluke Rule season in three years while providing unexpectedly solid production for Houston. As usual, the blocks and rebounds were the key -- he finished 11th among centers in rebound rate and seventh in blocks per minute, although he has the frustrating habit of virtually never putting his hands up to contest a shot that he can't block.
Another notable surprise was his career-best 79.6 percent mark from the line; along the same lines, he's become just good enough on his midrange shot to be a somewhat useful spot-up weapon. Dalembert made 37.8 percent of his long 2s last season; you don't want that to become the focal point, but with five on the shot clock you'll take it.
Dalembert still has poor instincts at both ends and will make head-scratching decisions, but his length and solid mobility make him an above-average defender overall. Synergy graded him that way, and the Rockets gave up 2.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Don't expect him to maintain last season's productivity at age 31, but he'll be a major upgrade in the middle from what Milwaukee had at the end of last season.
:MIKE DUNLEAVY, SF
+ Heady, thin wing player with good handle for size. Takes lots of charges.+ Poor athlete who has had knee problems. Struggles to defend quick wings.+ Likes catch-and-shoot, but average shooter. Moves very well without ball.
The knees feel much better, thanks. Dunleavy's movement improved noticeably last season and he put together one of his best seasons overall at age 31. He made 39.9 percent of his 3s, which was impressive, but he also shot unusually well off the dribble and off his assorted off-ball cuts.
Dunleavy converted 44.4 percent of his long 2s and shot 67.2 percent in the basket area, resulting in the eighth-best 2-point shooting percentage among small forwards. He's still sneaky enough with the shot fakes to rank in the top third at his position in free throw rate too; between that and the 3s he ranked third at his position in TS%.
Dunleavy isn't speedy but has good handle and sees the floor well; as a result, both his assist and turnover numbers were above average for a 3 and he finished fifth at the position in pure point rating.
Defensively, Dunleavy also had renewed juice. He's not a gambler, finishing in the bottom 10 at his spot in both blocks and steals per minute, but opposing small forwards had just a 10.1 PER against him according to 82games.com and the Bucks gave up 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. While the Bucks monitored his matchups and rarely let him within hailing distance of an elite scorer, he has shown he can defend the 3 position competently.
The question now is whether he can provide an encore. At his age and with his history, a decline is certainly possible, but for one season at least the Bucks got a great return on investment with an inexpensive contract.
:DREW GOODEN, PF
+ Quick big man who can rebound and score. Has declined as a finisher.+ Awkward, line-drive release but a very good midrange shooter. Will force shots.+ Mobile defender but makes mental errors. Quick leaper. Much-improved passer.
Never one to take a great interest in where his teammates might be, Gooden suddenly turned into a high-post passing savant last season, repeatedly getting assists off passes to cutters from his perch on the elbows and throwing in a sizzling 42.1 percent mark on 2-point jumpers outside 10 feet. One is tempted to call it a fluke except it's the third straight season he's shot at least 42 percent on long 2s.
Additionally, he was able to shoot a lot by moving to the center position once Andrew Bogut went out. With opposing 5s reluctant to challenge him, Gooden averaged better than a point every two minutes. The problems for him came closer to the basket -- he shot only 48.4 percent inside 10 feet, which is pathetic for a big man, and as a result he had a below-average TS% for his position.
Defensively, Gooden is stretched as a 4; playing him at center was pretty much suicidal, as he offered no interior resistance or basket protection at all. Milwaukee gave up 12.7 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court last season -- you read that correctly -- and opposing centers strafed him for an 18.7 PER according to 82games.com. At his more natural power forward position, where he's likely to play this season, he's a much more adequate defender.
Gooden wasn't technically a Fluke Rule player last season, but missed by only nine hundredths of a point and the same tenets apply: He's probably going to see a significant performance decline this season. For one, he's likely to be playing mostly power forward now that the Bucks have three other centers, and so he won't have such an advantage on offense. For another, he's unlikely to shoot quite so well on midrange jumpers again. Nonetheless, he's had a PER above the league average for four straight seasons, which makes him a very strong frontcourt reserve.
:EKPE UDOH, PF
+ Lean, athletic shot-blocker who moves well defensively and can protect rim.+ Has 15-foot range but very poor offensive instincts. No moves or handle.+ Very poor rebounder for size. Needs to reduce fouls. Makes free throws.
Udoh can't rebound or score, but man, can he play defense. Synergy again rated him as one of the best defenders in the league, and his teams once again had a major defensive improvement with him on the court. Golden State gave up 10.7 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, while in Milwaukee the change was 5.2 points.
Opposing centers racked up a decent player efficiency rating against Udoh, but that's because he was busy playing sheriff. He ranked fifth in blocks per minute among centers and in the top third in steals. He's both a capable pick-and-roll defender and a very strong rim protector, and despite his inexperience his defensive instincts are all on key. He's a bit undersized for a center and at age 25 he may not improve much from here, but defensive value alone makes him a very good backup. Fouls, however, remain a problem, as he had one every 7.4 minutes.
Udoh would be a starter if he could play offense, but he's pretty bad at this end. He can make open jumpers and hit 38.4 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, but he just doesn't have the instincts or ball skills to get himself easy chances near the basket. He's a low-mistake player, at least, cutting his turnover rate sharply last season, and his 75.4 percent from the line was very good for a center.
Surprisingly, he's also a terrible rebounder. Udoh was the league's third-worst center in both defensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate. This is partly because of how often he's going for blocks, but regardless he'll have to do better.
:BENO UDRIH, PG
+ Left-handed combo guard with outstanding midrange pull-up. Crafty finisher.+ Has scorer's mentality. Struggles to defend quick guards.+ Line-drive shot breaks down from long range. Rarely turns ball over
Udrih had some of the league's best defensive stats last season, a result that at first glance makes one mistrust the entire enterprise. He's never rated well before, but he also hadn't regularly played the 2 until last season, and perhaps he's better suited to it than we thought.
Last season Synergy rated him among the league's best defensive guards, opposing shooting guards had a meager 10.3 PER against him according to 82games.com, and the Bucks gave up a whopping 11.2 points per 100 possessions less with Udrih on the court. Even using more advanced techniques like regularized adjusted plus-minus, Udrih rated among the league's best guards.
Udrih likely benefits from his comparison points -- Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis won't be making the All-Defense squad anytime soon -- and overall I'd still take this result with an entire pillar of salt. Nonetheless, Udrih's defense bears watching this season.
Offensively, I subjectively thought he was better than his stats --Udrih provided the Bucks some of their best ball movement and ranked sixth in the NBA in pure point rating, but his 3-point shot abandoned him. Or rather, he abandoned the 3. Udrih made only 17 the entire season, dragging down his true shooting percentage. While he shot his usual stellar mark on long 2s -- 44.6 percent, if you're curious -- he drew few fouls and finished with the third-worst secondary percentage of any point guard. That blemish reduced his offensive impact, but he was still one of the better third guards in the league last season.
:TOBIAS HARRIS, F
+ Scoring combo forward with good ball skills. Smart player who draws fouls.+ Needs to lose baby fat and improve jump shot. Unselfish, hardworking player.+ Not a great athlete. A tweener who must improve defense. Can score in post.
Harris showed potential as a scorer as a 19-year-old rookie; in his limited minutes he averaged 17.4 points per 40 minutes, drew scads of fouls and shot 68.1 percent in the basket area. He's not a great shooter, however, making six 3-pointers all season, so without the ball in his hands it's less clear how he can contribute.
Harris' best avenue to minutes on this roster is at the 3, where he can bully smaller defenders on post-ups, and he could end up being a go-to option for the second unit this season. If so, he'll need to cut his turnovers and share the rock a bit more -- typical rookie shortcomings.
Defensively, he's a tweener who needs to get better. He fouled too often for a wing player last season and mobility will never be his strong suit, but he has good size for a wing and he's an excellent rebounder. He's also big enough to serve as a 4 with small-ball units, where his scoring ability could prove difficult for opposing bigs to counteract. Alas, Milwaukee's surfeit of power forwards makes it unlikely he'd see much duty in that alignment this season.
:LARRY SANDERS, C
+ Athletic big man who can run floor. Excellent shot-blocker. Can finish at rim.+ Bad outside shooter who shoots jumpers anyway. Below-average rebounder.+ Foul-prone defender who lacks strength. Has no post game or handle.
Sanders was a useful player last season because of his defensive mobility and shot-blocking, but it was quite an eventful season on defense. He was first among centers in both blocks and steals, an amazing accomplishment -- except that he was also first in fouls. Man, was he ever first. Given his thin frame and aggressive mindset, the fouling was especially prodigious: one every 4.83 minutes, by far the worst rate in the NBA among qualifying players (see chart). If left in the whole game, on average he would have fouled out early in the third quarter.
Most Fouls Per 40 Minutes, 2011-12Player Team PF/40Larry Sanders Mil 8.27Greg Stiemsma Bos 7.52Andris Biedrins GS 6.77Lou Amundson Ind 6.64Aaron Gray Tor 6.25Min. 500 minutes
But he made an impact. Sanders was second in the NBA in blocks per minute, trailing only Serge Ibaka. Synergy rated him the best defender on the Bucks and among the best centers in basketball. And Milwaukee gave up a whopping 11.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. If he can just figure out how not to foul on every other player, he could be an All-Defense candidate.
Actually, there's one other limitation: He can't play offense. Sanders isn't shy about shooting, but most of his shots don't go in. He shot 25.7 percent away from the basket area but took more than a third of his shots from there, including 32 from beyond 15 feet. Further evidence to dissuade him from shooting lies in his 47.4 percent mark from the line. There's simply no evidence that he should be taking jump shots, but he seems to fancy himself a pick-and-pop guy rather than a dive man who can flush dunks around the basket.
As a result, it's not clear where he fits in. Milwaukee has another big who does a lot of the same things with less collateral damage in Ekpe Udoh, and just traded for Sam Dalembert. Sanders can be an impact player in short minutes off the bench with his defense, and could be a nice trade pickup someplace else.
:JOHN HENSON, PF
+ Very thin, long, athletic 4 who can block shots and rebound. Good finisher.+ Needs strength. Iffy outside shooter. No post game. Offensive role unclear.
Henson had impressive shot-blocking rates at North Carolina, but it's not totally clear what else he brings to the table. Although he's long and can finish, he shot only 50 percent on 2s; although he has some makings of a midrange shot, he hit only 51 percent from the line. He had very solid ballhandling numbers and that usually projects, plus he could get more easy buckets on fast breaks and weakside cuts.
Nonetheless, he's likely to earn his money as a second-unit energizer in the short term. He lacks the muscle to guard burly post players and will have to use his superior length and leaping ability to offset that, and he'll have to improve as a shooter to establish an offensive role.
:DORON LAMB, SG
+ Smooth, long-armed wing with deadly 3-point shot. Very solid ball handler.+ Pathetic rebounder for size. Must add strength. B athlete at best.
Shooting specialists often make for great second-round picks, and I like Lamb the best of the specialists. He shot 46.6 percent and 48.6 percent on 3s in his two years at Kentucky, plus his ballhandling numbers were very strong -- he might be able to play point in a pinch.
Lamb may be a defensive liability because he's not much of an athlete. He blocked two shots in 1,249 minutes at Kentucky last season, had one of the worst rebound rates of any prospect, and shot only 48 percent on 2s. He also had, by far, the worst rate of steals of any perimeter prospect in the NCAA this year; in fact his was the worst of any player under 7 feet tall.
:JOEL PRZYBILLA, C
+ Shot-blocking center who defends rim. Good rebounder at both ends.+ Can't shoot or handle but will finish at rim. Has no post game or handle.+ Knee woes have robbed athleticism. Lost quick lift that was defining skill.
Portland started Przybilla 19 times, several of them after the team had already committed to rebuilding, and Milwaukee signed him in the offseason after two other teams pursued him. Both these facts amazed me because, after two serious knee injuries, Przybilla is irrefutably done. The quick leaping that was his differentiating skill is completely gone; he can barely get up to dunk now.
It shows in his results in two seasons since the knee injuries hit -- he's had a PER in the sixes in both campaigns, and while he still rebounds well his offensive numbers have been absolutely atrocious. He's turned the ball over on more than a quarter of his possessions in three straight seasons -- a truly breathtaking rate -- and averaged only 4.9 points per 40 minutes in the past two. Similarly, the once-fearsome shot-blocker averaged only 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes last season.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:49 (thirteen years ago)
portland trailblazers
DAMIAN LILLARD, PG
+ Shoot-first point guard with deep range. Decent passer with good handle.+ Good athlete but not elite. Smart, efficient player. Draws fouls. Money from line.
Lillard has some positive markers, but the negative indicators shouldn't be ignored either. Seniors taken in the lottery have a poor track record of success, and Lillard seems to fit the prototype of many. He doesn't have strong athletic metrics, and he played a very weak schedule as a collegian.
The offsetting positive is how tremendously efficient he is offensively. Lillard shot 40.9 percent on 3s and 88.7 percent from the line during his senior year, so at worst he is going to be a tremendous floor spacer. Additionally, despite having to be his team's main scorer at Weber State, his pure point rating wasn't bad. It assumed he'll find teammates more as a second or third option in the pros.
For those reasons, I have no problem with him as a first-rounder, but at No. 6, you want star potential. Based on his age and pedigree, Lillard seems to have a low ceiling in that regard.
:WES MATTHEWS, SG
+ Energetic defender with good strength and decent lateral quickness.+ Has accurate set shot from distance but can't shoot off dribble. Quick first step.+ Poor leaper who struggles to finish at basket. Average handle. Doesn't see floor.
Matthews had largely the same season as the one before, except he had a more difficult time scoring. He dropped to 38.3 percent on 3-pointers, which probably should have been expected after his outlier 2010-11 mark, but a far more serious decline came inside the arc. His 43.4 percent mark on 2s was among the worst at the shooting guard spot and came with a marked decline in free throw attempts as well.
In particular, his 49.5 percent mark on shots at the rim stamped him as the league's worst finisher among non-Bobcats. Matthews had shot a splendid 63.9 percent on roughly the same number of shots per minute the season before, so it should revert to a point in between those two extremes.
One positive was Matthews' cut in turnovers. He ranked third among shooting guards with miscues on just 8.0 percent of his possessions.
Defensively, Matthews is miscast as a stopper, but he is pretty solid overall. He is strong, tough and likes to play D, but he lacks elite athleticism, can't jump and is a bit short for the role. His quick hands are a plus though, as he ranked eighth among shooting guards in steals per minute. The Blazers gave up 3.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with Matthews on the court, but this was a poor defensive team even when Matthews played.
:NICOLAS BATUM, SF
+ Long, slender, smooth combo forward who can shoot, run floor and finish.+ Has length to be good defender, but lacks strength and is beaten regularly.+ Struggles to take advantage of size in paint. Can't shoot off the dribble.
Despite the periodic frustrations of watching him play and the Blazers' seemingly best efforts to stymie his progress, Batum had a strong bounce-back season in 2011-12. He has become an efficient and productive scorer, putting up an impressive 18.3 points per 40 minutes while sporting the fifth-best true shooting percentage at his position. Batum has a high, quick release and has become a good catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter, especially from the corners. He made 39.1 percent of his shots behind the arc last season.
Batum runs the floor and gets to the rim on cuts, shooting 65.3 percent at the basket with a decent free throw rate, once again shooting above 80 percent at the line.
His lone offensive bugaboo remains the in-between game. Batum has a lot of trouble posting smaller defenders due to his lack of strength, and he doesn't balance well shooting off the dribble -- making only 29.5 percent of his long 2s. Additionally, he is not much of a ball handler, and his numbers worsened last year, placing him 53rd among small forwards in pure point rating.
The big question with Batum is his defense, or lack thereof. Though his length routinely is seen as a major advantage, his numbers have been consistently awful over a period of years and didn't change last season. Synergy again rated him well below the league average for small forwards. Opposing small forwards had an 18.1 PER at his expense according to 82games.com, and the Blazers gave up 4.8 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
While Batum ranked fourth among small forwards in blocks per minute, the countervailing evidence that he is a bad defender has become overwhelming. His contract should be a solid value given his age, production and potential, but only if his defensive output comes close to the level of his offense.
:LAMARCUS ALDRIDGE, PF
+ Elite low-post scorer with unblockable turnaround and good midrange game.+ Excels at spinning out of the post for an alley-oop. Runs floor well. Shies from contact.+ Length, mobility make him an effective defender. Has size to guard 5s.
Aldridge has achieved full-fledged stardom as something of a poor man's Dirk Nowitzki, a jump-shooting big man who can generate lots of high-percentage shots with few turnovers. He doesn't do it as well as Nowitzki, obviously, which is why Aldridge doesn't have an MVP or a championship ring, but he is darned effective. Aldridge averaged 23.9 points per 40 minutes last season, third best among power forwards, while ranking in the top 15 at his position in true shooting percentage and turnover ratio. That's some serious efficiency.
Aldridge shot 42.2 percent on jumpers outside 10 feet and went to that weapon a lot, taking nearly 10 a game; only three players, including Nowitzki, attempted more on the season. In addition, Aldridge shot a sizzling 52.1 percent from 3 to 9 feet, the second-best mark in the league -- an area where the league average is just 37.5 percent -- and made 68.4 percent in the basket area.
Meanwhile, Aldridge is a vastly underrated defensive player. He doesn't put up huge block or steal totals, but his length and mobility make him a good pick-and-roll and low-post defender. He has also developed a very good strip move against opposing post players. Synergy rated him among the league's top power forwards last season, and the Blazers gave up 7.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court. The only quibble is that he could be a more effective defensive rebounder given his size. He is only average for a power forward and well below average for a center.
:MEYERS LEONARD, C
+ Big, mobile center who can run and finish. Solid rebounder. Makes free throws.+ No post game, raw offensively. Motor runs hot and cold. Could use more muscle.
Known to fans of southern rock as Myyyrs Lynyrd, by any name I thought he was a bit of a stretch at No. 11. Portland took the plunge because of his size (7-foot-1) and athleticism, and there's some underlying skill too. Leonard's free throw numbers and solid form indicate he may be a good pick-and-pop weapon in time, although he is not an instinctive offensive player. He has shown some touch around the rim.
With all that said, statistically, the only number that makes him a lottery pick is 7-1. He had ordinary rebound and blocked-shot rates for a college center, his focus and concentration still come and go defensively, and his only standout figure offensively was making more free throws than a typical 5.
The idea for Portland is for him to be a quasi-project -- good enough to be the backup 5 and playing regularly enough to improve. However, the late lottery is basically a graveyard filled with mistake picks on centers. I'm not sold that he'll prove an exception to that rule.
:J.J. HICKSON, PF
+ Versatile big man who can finish at rim. Takes too many jumpers.+ Solid athlete but hugely mistake-prone on defense. Overmatched as a center.+ Has poor instincts at both ends. Very good rebounder. Improved left hand.
Hickson washed out in Sacramento and became part of the Kings' annual midseason yard sale, but he played much better after Portland scooped him up off waivers. Unfortunately, his proclivity for midrange jumpers that don't find the basket remains intact. Hickson tried 144 between the two locales and made only 29.9 percent of them, accounting for more than a third of his shot attempts.
He is pretty good inside 10 feet, and his finishing ability around the basket allowed him to average a solid 14.5 points per 40 minutes. Hickson rebounds very well, finishing at the league average for centers despite being badly outsized at 6-9.
And let's applaud his improving instincts with the ball. After having one of the worst pure point ratings in basketball in 2011-12, Hickson nearly hit the average for centers last season.
Despite good size for a 4 and decent athleticism, Hickson still struggles mightily at the defensive end. This is partly a result of playing out of position at center so much, but the data has been brutal on this front his entire career. According to 82games.com, opposing power forwards had an 18.2 PER against him in Sacramento and a 17.9 mark in Portland. The Blazers also gave up dramatically more points with him on the court, although this didn't happen in Sacramento. Given how bad his data was in Cleveland, this suggests mild improvement at best.
Optimists will point out that at least he is a solid rebounder and doesn't foul.
:NOLAN SMITH, G
+ Combo guard with good size for point. Struggles to handle ball. C athlete.+ Showed little ability to create and finish. Shot well in college.+ Suspect defensively due to limited athleticism. Tweener between 1 and 2.
If you're billed as a shooting specialist and don't offer a lot of other positives, you need to make shots. Smith didn't as a rookie, and if that doesn't change, he might want to learn a few key phrases in Finnish or Hungarian. Smith made just 28.9 percent of his 3-point tries, and his 40 percent mark on 2-pointers was among the worst at his position. Breaking down by zone, he didn't shoot well from anywhere, and he didn't draw fouls either.
This might not have been a problem if he had been able to play the point, but the evidence isn't in his favor there either. Smith had a negative pure point rating and one of the worst turnover ratios at the position, which shouldn't happen if you're mostly taking jump shots. Overall, Smith's 7.73 PER was the third-worst at his position and among the worst in the league, and as a 23-year-old rookie, he was much older than most first-year players.
Defensively, Smith fouled a lot and to little effect. Only four point guards were whistled more per minute, but opposing point guards still had a 17.5 PER at his expense, according to 82games.com. Portland gave up a whopping 9.4 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
:JARED JEFFRIES, PF
+ Long combo forward who excels at taking charges. Gets lots of deflections.+ Poor outside shooter and bad finisher with penchant for missing layups.+ Decent athlete but lacks strength. Terrible rebounder for size.
I've long been a Jeffries detractor, but last season may have been the best of his career. Despite playing on a bad knee, he scored just enough to be somewhat useful, which allowed his defensive value to make up for his limited scoring and rebounding.
The shift of the league toward mobile frontcourt players has helped him greatly, as Jeffries is a good pick-and-roll defender but lacks the strength to battle inside. His rebound rate was somewhat competent last season, which was a big improvement, and his defensive activity was a major plus -- seventh among power forwards in steals per minute and 15th in blocks.
Jeffries also took charges by the bushel, ranking third in the league on a per-minute basis, although he is indiscriminate about when to go for the charge and picks up tons of blocking fouls along the way. All told, New York gave up 4.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with Jeffries on the floor.
Offensively, Jeffries still wasn't good. He averaged 9.4 points per 40 minutes, shot just 24.6 percent outside the basket area and had an indefensibly high turnover ratio for such a low-usage player. Those shortcomings offset all the good his defense did. But this was a great season by his standards; he's usually so bad that it not only negates his defense but also makes him a serious negative. Last season, he was neutral, which made him a useful rotation player.
:LUKE BABBITT, SF
+ Heavy-footed combo forward with 3-point shot. Disappointing rebounding stats.+ Brutal defensive player. Slow laterally, not a paint defender or a leaper.+ Needs to improve handle and body for career to gain traction.
Babbitt finally got some minutes once the Blazers gave up on the season. In doing so, he proved two things we've long suspected: (1) he can really shoot, and (2) he really can't guard anybody.
First, the good news. Babbitt made 43 percent of his 3s, taking more than half his shots from beyond the arc. The next step is for him to add shot fakes that can get him more attempts close-in. He had only 18 tries at the rim and finished with one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. Better ball skills would also improve his assist and turnover numbers. Babbitt's turnover ratio in particular was inexcusably high for a catch-and-shoot specialist, and he ranked 60th out of 70 power forwards in pure point rating.
But none of that will matter until he stops getting torched on defense. Synergy rated Babbitt the league's second-worst defender with at least 190 plays defensed, and the Blazers gave up an impossibly bad 10.2 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court. It gets worse: According to 82games.com, opposing power forwards rang up a 26 PER against Babbitt, meaning the mere sight of him turned the average 4 into Karl Malone. He fared better at the 3, but his rates of blocks, steals and rebounds were well below average for the position.
:RONNIE PRICE, PG
+ Athletic guard who lacks a position. Great leaper, but takes off with two feet.+ Erratic handle for a point guard. Short for a 2 but can check bigger players.+ Poor outside shooter, but makes bad decisions on his drives. Fouls like crazy.
Phoenix experimented with Price as a starting off guard, where he lacks size but is athletic enough to defend the position, but he couldn't shoot well enough to make it work. Price tried to develop a set-shot 3-pointer but made only 13 of his 44 tries. Throw in an equally brutal 12-for-50 performance on long 2s and it's pretty clear where the problem is.
Well, one problem anyway. Price can't shoot, but he also can't handle the ball, which is why point guard is a difficult position for him as well. He is wildly turnover prone, ranking 68th out of 70 point guards in turnover ratio and 67th in pure point rating. He offsets some of his quickness advantage by always needing to gather and go up off two feet -- where, admittedly, he can uncork some pretty sweet jams for a little guy.
Price balances some of his offensive woes with crazy, manic defense. He was third among point guards in steals per minute, but at a cost of an astronomic foul rate that was the worst of any perimeter player. Still, he got results on this end. Synergy rated him as the Suns' best defender and Phoenix gave up 5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
In the end, his lack of any offensive role makes him a 12th man.
:WILL BARTON, SG
+ Slender, competitive winger who gets to the basket. Unusually good rebounder for his size.+ Needs to add strength. Average 3-point shooter. Good ball handler for winger.
I'm not sure why Barton slipped to the second round, but he has sleeper potential. Barton isn't a great long-range shooter and he may struggle in physical matchups defensively, but his motor and length should help him overcome those issues.
He is also a vastly underrated offensive player. The guy shot 56 percent on 2s, and he was doing it as a go-to scorer. He had the rebound rate of a power forward despite playing the wings and weighing 170 pounds soaking wet. Although he had a major scoring role, his assist and turnover numbers were solid for a wing player. He'll need to improve the 3-point shot, but it's not like his shot is broken -- 34.6 percent on 3s and 74.9 percent from the line last season.
Second-round picks always face an uphill climb and the wing spots in Portland are crowded, but I won't be shocked if Barton is in the rotation by March.
:ELLIOT WILLIAMS, G
+ Quick left-handed shooting guard with scorer's mentality. Strong in transition.+ Mediocre shooter but can get to rim. Good handle but not inclined to pass.+ Reputation as solid defender with good quickness and long arms. Injury prone.
Williams got into 24 games in his second season after missing the entirety of what should have been his rookie season with a knee problem, but he was injured again -- this time a shoulder problem -- just as he emerged as a rotation player. In his brief stint in the mix, he showed a knack for scoring -- and, um, cherry-picking -- but his game will need to round out for him to emerge as a regular.
Williams averaged 23.6 points per 40 minutes, but with a middling shooting percentage and virtually no assists. His jumper, always a question, remains so after he went 8-for-27 on 3s and 6-for-18 from the free throw line.
He has NBA quickness and a knack for scoring in a Marcus Thornton kind of way, but the jury remains largely out on what type of player he can become.
The jury will remain out at least 12 more months, alas, as Williams tore his Achilles late in the summer and will miss the entire season for the second time in three years.
:SASHA PAVLOVIC, SF
+ Winger with decent quickness. Competent at catch-and-shoot from corners.+ Awful ball handler. High bounce and gets out of control. Poor offensive instincts.+ Decent defensive footwork. Rarely rebounds. Doesn't draw fouls.
I'm fascinated by Pavlovic's ability to remain in the NBA, as the halo effect of being a half-decent player for half a season, half a decade ago, shows no sign of abating. Last season, he played 527 minutes for a conference finalist, and the previous season he started six games for the world champions! Yet he's not even remotely productive enough to warrant a continued presence in the league. Last season was his fifth straight with a single-digit PER, the third straight with a PER below 7. Even so, he has a guaranteed deal from Portland for 2012-13.
Last season, he shot 29.3 percent on 3s and 29.7 percent on long 2s. Given that theoretically his specialty is his catch-and-shoot game, this was a problem. He had the lowest free throw rate of any small forward and among the worst rates in basketball (see Mike Miller), he averaged a meager 9.1 points per 40 minutes, and he had one of the worst turnover ratios at his position despite a limited offensive workload.
Defensively, he is somewhat useful since he is long and active. Pavlovic was seventh among small forwards in blocks per minute and 20th in steals, although he had one of the highest foul rates too. Opposing small forwards had just a 12.4 PER when he was on the floor.
However, the offensive cost is a killer. He can't handle the ball and can only sort of shoot it, and there's no random side category where he's a plus either. There are 30 guys in the D-League who can do this better.
:VICTOR CLAVER, SF
+ Long, skinny combo forward with quickness. Can attack and get to line.+ May be a tweener. Will struggle to guard wingers but lacks muscle for 4.+ Poor rebounder for size. Has 3-point range but inconsistent shooter.
A first-round pick by the Blazers in 2009 who will come over this season, Claver does not exude greatness based on his European numbers. His stats in the Spanish ACB last season are fairly underwhelming -- a rebound every seven minutes, a shooting percentage in the low 40s and a high turnover ratio. Similarly, his translated European stats from a year earlier, when his Valencia squad was in the Euroleague, yield a 10.3 PER with ho-hum scoring and rebounding totals.
Claver's best skill in Europe is his ability to get to the line, averaging about a free throw for every three field goal attempts, but he'll be hard-pressed to maintain that rate against NBA athletes. The best hope for development may be as a floor-spacing 4, but his 3-point shooting is still erratic. Between that and his lack of a clear defensive position, he faces an uphill battle.
:JOEL FREELAND, F
+ Energetic big man who can run floor and rebound. May need more muscle.+ Good shooter for size. Makes free throws. Doesn't block shots.
A first-round pick in 2006, Freeland will finally make the move stateside after establishing himself as one of the better big men in Europe. Of his last two Euroleague campaigns, one was very good and one was pretty indifferent. Combine the translated stats of the two and you get a solid backup big man -- a projected PER of 13.21, a fairly low shooting percentage of 49 (he takes a lot of jumpers) and a solid rate of 11.5 rebounds per 40 minutes.
Although he is an active big guy, Freeland doesn't appear to have any kind of knack for shot-blocking. In 29 Euroleague games over the past two seasons, he has rejected just 11 shots. Nonetheless, if he can hit some midrange jump shots and his rebounding numbers carry over from Europe, he should give Portland a solid return on its investment.
― moullet, Monday, 1 October 2012 17:59 (thirteen years ago)
brooklyn nets
DERON WILLIAMS, PG
+ Elite point guard who excels in breaking down defenses with quick crossover.+ Not a leaper but has size, strength to finish at rim. Good midrange shooter.+ Has ability to defend well but effort has nosedived in recent seasons.
Williams labored under the strain of carrying the Nets' offense last season, with more shots and points but fewer assists than we're used to seeing. The Nets used him often off the ball to produce points, with Williams involved in lots of off-ball cuts from the corners. With a more competent lineup around him this season, expect Williams to go back to his bread and butter in the high pick-and-roll.
Williams dramatically increased his 3-point attempts but made only 33.6 percent. This shot has never been a big part of his arsenal and may be of reduced importance this season. He hit a solid 40.7 percent of his long 2s, and while his free throw rate wasn't as high as in past seasons, it still cracked the top 10 among point guards.
Let's hope the renewed enthusiasm in Brooklyn will inspire Williams to actually try on defense, because he completely mailed it in last season. His effort had slackened his final couple of years in Utah as well, but last season reached another level. Synergy rated him one of the worst point guards in the league at that end, and opponents ripped him for an 18 PER, according to 82games.com. This should not be happening. Williams isn't the most laterally fleet player in the league, but he has good size and decent quickness. With proper effort, he should at least be a league-average defender.
:JOE JOHNSON, SG
+ Huge guard with point guard's handle. Can play over the top of most defenders.+ Very good midrange shooter. Good passer, but struggles to get by defenders.+ Solid, low-risk defender who relies on length and strength. Extremely low foul rate.
Johnson's 3-point shooting percentage predictably recovered after his 2010-11 anomaly, lifting his scoring and shooting numbers along with it. What stood out was how often he fired away, with a third of his shots coming from behind the arc. Throw in his 38.8 percent mark on 3s and his stellar shooting inside it -- 42.2 percent beyond 10 feet, 66.4 percent at the rim and the league's fifth-best mark from 3 to 9 feet -- and Johnson rated well above par in true shooting percentage despite a low free throw rate. Johnson's floater is vastly underrated; two years ago, he was second best in the 3 to 9 foot range.
Johnson is still a capable ball handler, ranking eighth among shooting guards in pure point rating. Taken as a whole, it may have been his most efficient offensive season as a Hawk.
Defensively, Johnson is a low-risk guy who hardly fouls; only two players were whistled less often, and they're both small guards. Johnson instead stays off opponents and uses his size to contest shots. He rarely guarded elite wingers and I wouldn't call him impactful, but the Hawks allowed next to nothing to opposing wing players last season and he was a big part of the rotation. Synergy also gave him solid marks.
:GERALD WALLACE, SF
+ Athletic combo forward who excels in transition. Can handle and draw fouls.+ Subpar shooter with low, cross-body delivery. Good passer. Excellent rebounder.+ Defensive effort slackened. Active in passing lanes and moves well laterally.
Wallace has been traded at the deadline in consecutive seasons, but I'm guessing he won't make it a three-peat. Although energy guys tend to fade quickly in their 30s, Wallace's numbers held up last season. Once again, jump shooting was his bugaboo. He hit only 30.7 percent of his 3s and 36.4 percent of his long 2s. Perhaps of more lingering concern is that he wasn't great near the basket either, hitting 58.4 percent. He did get to the rim often and rarely shot long 2s, giving him one of the best 2-point shooting marks at his position.
Wallace draws lots of fouls and makes his freebies. He was ninth among small forwards in free throw rate and converted at an 80 percent clip from the stripe. He remains an elite rebounder for a winger capable of moving up to a smaller 4. All those tasks require a high degree of athleticism, and at 30, his durability is a concern.
Wallace has been a plus defender his whole career, but his effort slackened last season once the Blazers' season went downhill. Synergy rated him well below average in Portland and New Jersey, and he'll need to dial the energy up now that he is on a good team.
:KRIS HUMPHRIES, PF
+ Quick, energetic rebounder and scorer around the basket. Runs floor and finishes.+ Improved midrange shooter but will force some shots. Prone to turnovers.+ Improved basketball IQ and defense, but still has weak areas. A bit short for a 4.
The guy whose 2011 offseason included the Hollywood wedding/divorce saga also apparently spent quite a bit of time in the gym, because Humphries had his best season. He has become an absolute beast on the glass, ranking third among power forwards in Rebound Rate while turning into a potent scoring threat.
Humphries ranked in the top half of power forwards in scoring, TS%, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and free throw rate. He has developed as a midrange shooter, hitting 40.2 percent of his long 2s last season and converting a liability into a strength, allowing him to shot-fake and dribble-drive for dunks.
Defensively, I would describe Humphries as "good for a Net" last season. He blocks shots and rebounds, but New Jersey wasn't appreciably better with him on the court. Opposing power forwards registered a 17.3 PER against him, according to 82games.com. I'm not sure if he was part of the problem, but he wasn't part of the solution either.
:BROOK LOPEZ, C
+ Big, slow post-up center who almost always turns left shoulder. Good shooter.+ Blocks shots but a bad defender. Can't guard floor spacers at all. Won't rebound.+ Poor passer out of double-teams. Takes bad shots. Too focused on drawing fouls.
Thanks to two separate injuries, Lopez played only five games last season. Given he had played 246 consecutive games before last season, I doubt it will be a lingering concern going forward, but it gives us little to work with as far as analysis.
The bigger issue is whether a healthy Lopez is a max-contract player. He can score a lot in a league-average, Al Jefferson kind of way, but he has taken criticism for his brutal rebounding numbers. To me, this misplaces the focus. The real issue is that he is a plodding defender who is beatable in transition and hopeless against pick-and-rolls. If he can't improve his defensive value, it will be tough for him to justify the contract -- no matter how many 20-point performances he produces.
:C.J. WATSON, PG
+ Shoot-first point guard who can create shots. Not a natural distributor.+ Can pressure ball and has fast hands, but a liability in half-court defense.+ Excellent long-range shooter but struggles in traffic. Subpar finisher.
Watson had some effective stretches last season, but in the big picture, he was far too aggressive on offense for his talent level. Watson finished 19th at his position in usage rate but was one of the least efficient players at his position, especially when he wasn't spotting up for 3s. He finished 50th among point guards in TS% and 45th in pure point rating, and if you subtract his stellar 3-point shooting (39.3 percent), that data looks much worse.
The assists Watson did earn were of an unusually low quality. Using data from Hoopdata.com on the location of player assists, the average Watson assist was likely a low-quality shot. Only 17.3 percent of them resulted in baskets at the rim, while nearly half produced midrange jump shots, which are the lowest percentage shot in the game.
Based on league-wide shooting percentages at each distance, I calculated the marginal value of assists from each point on the floor and produced a modified value for each player, scaling my result to a league average of 0.667 points per assist. (This is what the PER formula credits each player). As the chart shows, the two Bulls' point guards had the two worst figures in this category, meaning that the receiver had to do much more work with the passes to get buckets.
Worst assist quality, point guards, 2011-12Player Team Pts./Ast.C.J. Watson Chi 0.527Derrick Rose Chi 0.549Jarrett Jack NO 0.551Goran Dragic Hou 0.556Jrue Holiday Phi 0.559League average 0.667Source: Hoopdata.com. Min. 200 assists.
Watson might also benefit from less offensive responsibility on a Brooklyn team with more scoring. He is a poor finisher who shot a ghastly 39.4 percent inside 10 feet last season. On long 2s, he wasn't much better at 32.2 percent. He just can't be the guy taking contested jumpers late in the shot clock.
Watson really struggled on the defensive end last season. He gave up a 17.8 PER to opposing point guards, according to 82games.com, and the Bulls gave up 7.8 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court.
:REGGIE EVANS, PF
+ Hard-nosed rebounding machine. Short but strong, gets great positioning.+ Will play physical and foul, but lacks length and mobility to defend well.+ Offensively inept except for putbacks. Good screener, but can't shoot or handle.
One of the league's true one-trick ponies, Evans once again put up a spectacular Rebound Rate and did virtually nothing else. While his phenomenal board work ranked third in the league and second at the offensive end, he is one of the league's most extreme players in several respects.
Offensively, he had the league's worst turnover ratio and nearly the lowest scoring rate. For somebody who gets so many offensive boards, he virtually never converts them into points. Evans averaged a meager 5.4 points per 40 minutes, the third-worst figure in basketball.
Fewest points per 40 minutes, 2011-12player Team Pts./40Ben Wallace Det 3.5Andris Biedrins GS 4.3Reggie Evans LAC 5.4Earl Watson Utah 5.8DeShawn Stevenson NJ 6.2Min. 500 minutes
Similarly, he had the league's highest free throw rate at 0.99 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, but given a 50.7 percentage from the stripe, that rate wasn't much use. Even with the offensive rebounds he provides, Evans was a major drain at that end.
Defensively, Evans had his moments against Memphis in the playoffs, but the regular season was another story. While he is physical and can rebound, Evans doesn't move well and was last among centers in blocks per minute. Additionally, he committed a foul every 6.5 minutes, one of the league's highest rates. The Clippers gave up 6.3 more points per 100 possessions with him on the court, while Synergy also graded him poorly. Brooklyn is counting on him as a backup center, but at this point in his career, he shouldn't be in a rotation.
:MARSHON BROOKS, G
+ Shameless gunner with extremely long arms for size. Likes to play one-on-one.+ Mediocre outside shooter. Blind to teammates. Good finisher at basket.+ Rebounds well for size. Length a defensive asset, but prone to lapses.
Brooks showed the good and the bad of his game during his rookie season. He energized a moribund Nets team early on with his one-on-one scoring ability but failed to pair that game with a team concept. Brooks averaged a solid 17.2 points per 40 minutes and may be able to build on that, especially if his jumper improves. He hit only 31.3 percent of his 3s, but he has the form to do better. He can also draw more fouls by using shot fakes, as opponents struggle to challenge his length.
He must get his teammates involved, though. Brooks had the fourth-worst pure point rating among shooting guards, and his turnover ratio was unacceptably high for a primary scorer. There's good news buried here, as rookies with high turnover ratios tend to make more progress in subsequent seasons, but his poor decision making and tunnel vision grew frustrating to watch.
Defensively, Brooks earned a few quick hooks after defensive lapses. He suffered through the typical rookie learning curve but showed some promise. Given his length, he should be a solid defender against shooting guards, but the Nets often had him playing the 3 last season, for which he lacks the size and muscle.
:ANDRAY BLATCHE, PF
+ Jump-shooting big man miscast as go-to guy. Struggles to create quality looks.+ Good size, but lacks strength. Subpar defensive effort. Jumps on every shot fake.+ Struggles with conditioning. Character a question. Will force bad shots.
The epitome of everything that was wrong with the Wizards over the past three years, "Baltche" showed up out of shape once again and this time it really cost him. He wasn't even able to supply his usual variety of ball-stopping, high-volume shooting, but his defense remained as inattentive as ever.
Blatche was finally held out with "conditioning" issues, a form of banishment designed to let the Wizards forget that ridiculous contract extension they gave him -- one they ate this summer in an amnesty.
If there's any hope for redemption here, it's that Blatche's biggest problem was not being able to make a shot. He's always leaned heavily on his midrange J but converted just 29.9 percent of his 2s from beyond ten feet. He's not an explosive athlete and has never been a great finisher, so he didn't have much to lean on once the jumper stopped falling. Additionally, he kept stopping the ball and taking an eternity to make his moves.
There's still some talent here as a pick-and-pop 4, and he's only 25 years old, so somebody will roll the dice. But Blatche will have to rededicate himself to getting in shape, trying on defense and sharing the ball to become a viable starter again.
:JOSH CHILDRESS, SF
+ Two-way forward who has battled knee problems. Athleticism on the wane.+ Shooting numbers have declined sharply. Handles ball well for size.+ Has length to defend. Not a troublemaker but flaky persona a concern.
Say, didn't you used to be good? Childress took the final step in his amazingly fast descent from ace sixth man to nonentity by setting a record that will never be broken: He didn't make a free throw the entire season. Partly that was by design, as he only drew two free throw attempts in 2012-13. (Shout out to the Hornets' Jason Smith for accomplishing what no other player did -- sending Childress to the line.)
Childress also shot just 6-of-39 away from the basket; between that and the lack of freebies, his TS% was poor even though he shot 70 percent at the rim. He did, however, clean up the turnover problem that plagued him the previous season.
When he wasn't avoiding free throws, Childress was getting savaged on defense. The Suns allowed 3.9 points more per 100 possessions with him on the court and opposing small forwards had a 20.8 PER against him; Synergy rated him the worst defender on the Suns and among the very worst in basketball. The subjective assessment backed this data up, featuring numerous on-ball blow-bys and weak-side no-shows.
Childress is only 29 and was extremely productive in Atlanta, but he has to regain enough confidence in his free throw shooting that he'll play the slashing game that made him so effective. Brooklyn may be his last decent chance to do so.
:MIRZA TELETOVIC, F
+ Floor-spacing big man in mold of New Orleans' Ryan Anderson.+ 3-point shooter who must adjust to longer NBA distance.+ May struggle to defend and finish in paint at this level.
Teletovic was certainly worth the three-year, taxpayer midlevel deal to which New Jersey signed him. He led the Euroleague in scoring, and his translated PER of 15.41 would make him a strong role player in the NBA. Teletovic stands 6-foot-9 but took nearly half his shots from beyond the 3-point line, making 43.1 percent in Euroleague play last season for Caja Laboral Vitoria. He hit only 43.6 percent of his 2s, however, and his translated rebound rate of 8.3 boards per 40 minutes won't bowl anyone over. Nonetheless, this was a rare value signing by the Nets.
:TYSHAWN TAYLOR, PG
+ Athletic combo guard who can get to basket and plays excellent defense.+ Erratic floor general. Not a natural point guard. Questionable shooter.
He was a second-round pick and faces a crowd in Brooklyn's backcourt, but Taylor should be in the league for a while. Taylor has a reputation as a poor outside shooter, but he shot 38 percent on 3s in each of his final two seasons at Kansas. Additionally, his defensive capabilities are likely to get him on the court, especially in small-ball situations.
Taylor would ideally play the point, but his negative pure point rating -- despite playing with a great finisher -- is a serious red flag. He also had a poor rebound rate for an athletic combo guard. Nonetheless, I liked this draft pick. At worst, he'll be something of a rich man's Ben Uzoh.
:JERRY STACKHOUSE, SG
+ Scoring-minded winger who has become dependent on his jump shot.+ Good size but struggles defensively. Rebound rate has diminished.
Stackhouse played 30 games as a reserve for the Hawks and showed he can still find the basket, scoring 15.8 points per 40 minutes. However, this was a very different Stackhouse than the one of yore, as he took 77 jump shots and just 23 inside 10 feet. Once a free throw machine thanks to his explosive first step, he didn't draw fouls at a high rate and shot just 37 percent from the floor last season. His TS% was low enough that his shot creation wasn't worth much.
Aside from the scoring rate, Stackhouse didn't provide much ancillary value. He has good size for a winger but doesn't move like he used to. The best that can be said is his reliance on jumpers helped him cut his turnovers.
― moullet, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 20:37 (thirteen years ago)
minnesota timberwolves
RICKY RUBIO, PG
+ Fast, clever, long-armed point guard who can push the tempo and find the open man.+ Bad outside shooter and a worse finisher. Draws fouls and makes free throws.+ Elite defender with great quickness and anticipation for steals. Takes charges.
Rubio looked to be a star early this past season when his jump shot was falling, but he quickly reverted to his tendencies in Europe and began missing all kinds of shots, short and long, before a torn ACL ended his campaign.
Rubio is a poor outside shooter, shooting 34 percent on 3s and 32.2 percent on long 2s, and this is what gets most of the attention. But other players have succeeded while doing this poorly; the part that's killing him is he's also a terrible finisher.
I mean, like, awful. Rubio converted only 47.1 percent at the rim -- the worst mark in the league among players with more than 100 attempts. (Rubio didn't meet my qualifying standard of 150 attempts, so D.J. Augustin was the "official" winner in the category.) As a result, his shooting numbers are ghastly -- his 36.8 percent mark on 2s was the eighth-worst mark in the league.
Nonetheless, Rubio's passing wizardry mostly offsets his shortcomings as a shooter. Overall he's not a great offensive player, but he was better than any of Minnesota's wings, so his ability to defend the 2 really helped the Wolves. Rubio finished 10th in pure point rating and somewhat offset his horrid shooting with a penchant for drawing fouls, ranking fourth among point guards in free throw rate. Oddly, he's a good foul shooter.
Lost in all the hubbub is Rubio's secret strength -- the highlight-reel passes are nice and all, but his elite defense is the true difference-maker for this team. Rubio ranked fourth among point guards in steals per minute and excelled at drawing charges; between his unusual length for a point guard and his quick feet, he was immediately among the best defenders in the league. Thanks to his efforts, the Wolves gave up 7.3 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court.
:BRANDON ROY, SG
+ Skilled guard with great handle and feel for the game. Plagued by knee problems.+ Subpar long-range shooter. Very good on midrange pull-ups. Sees the floor well.+ Good size and strength, but middling defender when healthy. Awful when not.
Everyone wants to focus on the playoff Game 4 against Dallas in 2011, but the most disconcerting part of Roy's 2010-11 season was that he actually was worse after his midseason return than before it. In 24 late-season games, he shot just 40.1 percent while hardly ever drawing fouls -- the one-time free throw machine had one of the worst rates at his position post-surgery. Since he's not a 3-point shooter, either, this produced some ugly offensive numbers.
Of course there was one glorious, nationally televised fourth quarter against Dallas in the playoffs during which the old Roy returned, but even that was a mirage -- in the other five playoff games, he shot 13-of-31 with only eight foul shots, scoring just 11.2 points per 40 minutes.
I just don't understand why a young team such as Minnesota risked two years at the midlevel for this. If his loss of explosiveness is permanent -- and at this one point, one must assume so -- Roy will have to dramatically alter his game. Working on his 3-point shot off the catch would be a good start, because he needs to boost his true shooting percentage to have much offensive value going forward.
:ANDREI KIRILENKO, SF
+ Long-armed forward who excels at blocking shots from behind.+ Good ball handler and passer but lacks aggression and strength.+ Mediocre outside shooter but a very good finisher around the basket.
Kirilenko had the highest translated PER of any player in the Euroleague last season, so it doesn't appear the time away hurt him. While his All-Star days are long gone, he's still a very valuable secondary player because of his ability to contribute in multiple ways and play both forward spots.
In 2010-11, Kirilenko ranked ninth among small forwards in PER, and he was good in nearly every sub-category save turnovers. While he forces some ill-advised passes, he also was 14th at his position in pure point rating, so the assists more than offset the negatives. He still blocks a ton of shots for a wing (fourth among small forwards), he's a strong rebounder and he draws lots of fouls (third among small forwards with 0.50 FTA/FGA).
While his shooting is an issue -- he'll have trouble repeating his 2010-11 3-point percentage -- Kirilenko can help as a small-ball 4 in Minnesota, something he hadn't done in Utah for a few years because of its frontcourt depth. Additionally, his defense remains a plus due to his length at either forward spot.
:KEVIN LOVE, PF
+ Dominant two-way rebounder who is a master of positioning underneath.+ Good spot-up shooter and passer. Will use jump hook from left block.+ Improved defensive player. Physical, but lacks great quickness and leaping.
Hello, superstar. Love improved his conditioning, upgraded his defense and showed off a crazy step-back 3-pointer move that opposing big men seem hopeless defending, and in doing so, he finished fifth in the NBA in PER. Love led all power forwards in points per minute and defensive rebound rate, and was second in overall rebound rate. He also ranked eighth in true shooting percentage.
Love developed a killer up fake, and between that and his brutishness on the glass, he had one of the highest free throw rates at his position; he also made 82.4 percent from the line. But the most potent part is the step-back 3-point move he's developed. Catching the ball on the elbow, he'll fake a dribble hand off, and then dribble backward to the line and launch. Love didn't even have that good a season shooting the ball by his standards, making 37.2 percent of his 3s and 34 percent of his long 2s, leaving the scary thought of what might happen if he gets hot.
Love's other go-to move is a jump hook with his right hand from the left block. He has trouble getting this shot off against long defenders, but it's a good tool to keep opponents honest and force their bigs to chase him on the perimeter. The one thing you'd like to see more of is Love finding teammates and protecting the ball. He played for himself a bit too much this past season and had a very low assist ratio for a go-to guy.
Defensively, Love's improved conditioning and increased minutes at center had some real benefits. While he doesn't block shots, he seems better off at center because he doesn't have to chase small-ball 4s on the perimeter as much and can use his physicality more. He'll never be an elite defender, but last season he was neutral, and the way he scores and rebounds, you can live with neutral. Other than hops, his biggest weakness is a tendency to whine about calls rather than running back on defense.
:NIKOLA PEKOVIC, C
+ Overpowering, wrecking ball of a big man who plays with unbridled physicality.+ Good scorer around the basket. Draws fouls and can catch. Brutal ball handler.+ Poor defensive rebounder. Competes on defense but doesn't move well.
On a per-minute basis, the NBA leader in points in the paint in 2011-12 was not Dwight Howard. It was not LeBron James or Blake Griffin or Andrew Bynum.
It was Nikola Pekovic, and that fact underscores just how good he was in his second pro season.
I understand the reluctance to give him the most-improved award since he didn't play a full season, but it's worth noting that Pekovic made the single biggest PER improvement in more than two decades. Pekovic's double-digit jump from rotation afterthought in 2010-11 to vital cog in 2011-12 was more than a point better than the next-largest leap, by Miami's Dwyane Wade in 2008-09 (see chart).
Biggest one-year PER improvement since 1988-89Player Year Prev PER PER ChangeNikola Pekovic 2011-12 11.29 21.47 10.18Dwyane Wade 2008-09 21.71 30.46 8.75David West 2005-06 11.18 19.74 8.56Erick Strickland 1998-99 9.22 18.04 8.82Nate Robinson 2011-12 10.07 18.05 7.98Min. 500 minutes each season
His value could be seen immediately when an injury ended his season -- for all the talk of how Ricky Rubio's demise affected the Wolves, the loss of Pekovic at nearly the same time hurt them just as badly.
The most important development for Pekovic was to get him to stop fouling on every play, and he underwent a rather dramatic transformation in that regard. After leading the league with a shocking 8.16 personals per 40 minutes as a rookie, he fell to 3.51 last season -- one of the lower rates among centers. His other big weakness, turnovers, also became much less of an issue. That went hand in hand, as many of the fouls were offensive fouls from illegal screens and his road-grader-in-reverse method of posting up.
Eliminating turnovers left him free to do what he does well, finish around the basket and rebound. Pekovic averaged a point every two minutes while converting 65.9 percent of his shots in the basket area; he also helped himself with a 74.3 percent mark from the free throw line. He made only six shots outside 10 feet all season, but his free throw mark suggests he could convert short-range jumpers as well. Pekovic's rebound numbers, a big disappointment in his rookie campaign, also proved very solid.
Defensively, Pekovic doesn't move particularly well, nor does he block shots, but he's learned how to be physical without fouling and his size really helps in post defense. Minnesota gave up 3.3 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, but he's so valuable offensively that it's a minor price to pay.
:DERRICK WILLIAMS, F
+ Versatile combo forward with inside-outside game. Likes to go left.+ Tweener who's heavy for a 3 but short for a 4. Not a great defender. Draws fouls.+ Had a rep as a pick-and-pop player but shot very poorly. Doesn't block shots.
If Williams had made jumpers at anywhere near the rate people expected, he would have challenged for rookie of the year. Instead he shot a bunch of bricks and ended up on the fringes of Minnesota's rotation.
Williams came heralded as a pick-and-pop weapon, but he couldn't have been more disappointing on this front; Williams shot 26.8 percent on 3s and 28.7 percent on long 2s. That's Rajon Rondo territory. He proved a good finisher on his forays to the basket and could capitalize more on that if his jumper proved more threatening. Even with last season's disaster, he had one of the better free throw rates at his position.
Williams also needs to work on his dribble blindness, as he ranked 65th among power forwards in both assist ratio and pure point rating -- he actually assisted less often than Michael Beasley. I'd say his dreams of playing the wing are toast with ballhandling numbers like that, but he's lost weight in an apparent attempt to play more 3.
Williams had below-average rebounding numbers for a power forward, but for a rookie, his defensive stats weren't terrible. He'll never star at that end since he's in between positions, but he defends competently enough that he could start if he ever got his jumper to fall.
:CHASE BUDINGER, SF
+ Athletic, high-scoring wing who can shoot off screens and finish at the basket.+ Good length but low aggression defensively. Good passer, decent handle.+ Good leaper who can rebound. Needs better midrange game. Mediocre motor.
Budinger's pro career thus far has mirrored his college career -- initial success, followed by a total lack of progress in subsequent years. He remains a productive third wing who can space the floor, help in other areas and play passable defense, but he doesn't score frequently or efficiently enough to make him a surefire starter.
His two main weapons are 3s and dunks. Budinger shot 40.2 percent on 3s but also can throw down some mean jams, finishing at 65.2 percent in the basket area. In between? Not so much. He shot 33.8 percent on 2s outside the basket area, and between that and a low foul rate, he finished with a merely good true shooting percentage rather than an exceptional one.
Budinger's ballhandling numbers also were decent, and his rebound rate put him in the top third of small forwards in that category. Defensively, he's a quality player, too. He doesn't look like he's doing too much out there, partly because he never gambles and relies on this length -- his rates of blocks, steals and fouls all were near the bottom at his position. However, he had solid metrics for a second straight season. Opposing small forwards had a 13.1 PER against him, and the Rockets gave up slightly fewer points with him on the court.
:J.J. BAREA, PG
+ Tiny pick-and-roll expert with explosive first step, especially going right.+ Flopper par excellence, but poor D otherwise. Lacks size and beatable off dribble.+ Has scorer's mentality. Mediocre outside shooter. Can make runners in lane.
Barea has an amazing gift for diving, and because he's so small, opponents keep taking the bait. Typically an opponent will size him up for an iso and decide to back him down; Barea will cross his forearms in front of him and wait for the opponent to hit them, then snap his arms back into his chest and fall down. It is the best move in basketball, a simulated charge that gets the refs nearly every time, and because of it, Barea was second in the NBA in offensive fouls drawn per minute (see chart).
Offensive fouls drawn per minute, 2011-12 leadersPlayer Team Chg/40Jermaine O'Neal Bos 1.76J.J. Barea Min 1.63Jared Jeffries NY 1.42Ivan Johnson Atl 1.19Ronnie Price Phx 1.08Min. 500 minutes. Source: hoopdata.com
But Barea's lack of size ends up distracting opponents from his real weakness -- it's not all that hard to just go around him. Barea gets lit up by speedy guards who attack him off the bounce but is so good at drawing charges that he ends up being only mildly negative overall.
Offensively, the Timberwolves put the ball in his hands early and often, and Barea toned down his shoot-first tendencies enough to average a very solid 9 assists per 40 minutes However, this came at a high turnover cost, and his true shooting percentage was nothing special, so in the big picture, Barea's main benefit was that he created lots of shots at a roughly league-average conversion rate. That makes him ideal with a second unit but not as valuable when the shots could be coming from Kevin Love or Nikola Pekovic instead.
:ALEXEY SHVED, G
+ Long combo guard who has developed an accurate long-range shot.+ Fluid offensive player who can create off the dribble and find the open man.+ Needs to add strength and improve defense. Good rebounder for size.
Picture a right-handed Goran Dragic with Ricky Rubio's hair, and you have some idea of Shved. His translated Euroleague stats from last season are very encouraging -- 14.7 points, 5.7 boards and 7.2 assists per 40 minutes, with a PER of 13.15, and he shot a sizzling 33-of-67 on 3s. He backed that up with strong play in the Olympics for Russia and should add some size to what was a tiny Minnesota backcourt last season.
Shved's translated numbers from the year before are poor but came in a very limited sample of minutes (86). Besides, the big question with him won't be production; it will be defense. If he shows he can be more than a speed bump on that end, he'll play, and he's still young enough to get better.
:GREG STIEMSMA, C
+ Elite shot-blocking center with good mobility. Thin frame, mediocre rebounder.+ Limited offensive player with no post game, but can finish around the basket.+ Makes foul shots and can hit the open 12-footer. Hugely foul prone.
A revelation uncovered from the D-League as a 26-year-old rookie, Stiemsma proved to be a shot-blocking wizard with good length and exceptional timing. He finished third in the NBA in blocked-shot rate at 4.44 per 40 minutes -- more surprisingly, he also was second among centers in steals per minute.
All this came at a huge cost in fouls, as his rate of one every 5.32 minutes made it difficult to keep him on the court for long -- this, too, was the second-highest rate in the league. In particular, he struggled with the physicality of the game. In addition to the fouls, he had a low rebound rate, and opposing centers piled up an 18.8 PER against him. Nonetheless, his defense had major value thanks to his tremendous ability as a disruptor.
Offensively, Stiemsma didn't seek to do much, averaging just 8.4 points per 40 minutes. But there's something to work with here. He shot 48.2 percent on long 2s and 70.7 percent from the line, and when he gets it at the rim, he'll flush it. Additionally, he had a very high assist ratio for a center. One wonders whether he can accomplish more as a high-post center in Rick Adelman's system, which tends to accentuate the skills noted here.
:LUKE RIDNOUR, PG
+ Slick pick-and-roll operator with outstanding midrange game. Makes floaters.+ Quick trigger but low release point. Money from the line. Decent court vision.+ Nimble defender but easily overmatched in post-ups. Poor finisher at the rim.
Ridnour shocked the masses by making 65.5 percent of his shots at the rim; granted, it was on only 85 attempts, but he usually struggles to make half of them. In the bigger picture, he declined, and with his being 31, there's a concern he'll continue on this trajectory.
Ridnour is annually among the league's best midrange shooters and made 44.9 percent again this past season, but that's actually a dip from his previous two campaigns. Meanwhile, he hit only 32.2 percent of his 3s, his pure point rating fell from good to ordinary and his usage rate slipped, putting him in the bottom quarter of point guards. One culprit: The emergence of Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love required him to spot up more, and he's not as effective in that role.
Defensively, Ridnour's lack of size and diminishing quickness made him a pretty big liability last season. Opposing point guards shredded him for a 20.7 PER, according to 82games.com, and the Wolves gave up 4 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Synergy also rated him as a subpar defender, while his steals rate diminished quite a bit.
All told, Ridnour can still be a very useful player, especially with the ball in his hands, but at this point, a reserve role is probably better suited to his abilities.
:LOU AMUNDSON, C
+ High-energy, undersized big man who can block shots and crash boards.+ Has no shooting range. Very poor foul shooter. Runs floor well.+Good help defender but can't check long post players or big 5s. High foul rate.
I like Amundson a lot better as a fifth big than a fourth one, and last season provided a good example why. As the regular backup center for Indiana, he simply found too many size mismatches on defense and too many offensive situations where his inability to shoot proved hurtful.
But Amundson can contribute in the right situation -- he's very active and ranked in the top third of centers in rebound and block rates. Alas, he shot far too often away from the basket -- 79 of his 206 attempts came from outside the charge circle, and he only made 21 of them. Between that and his usual brutal foul shooting, Amundson's TS% was the second-worst among centers.
Defensively, Amundson is really a pure 4 and couldn't handle big 5s, allowing an 18.9 opponent PER to centers. Again, this was more of a problem because Indy had no choice but to play him when Roy Hibbert checked out. Another manifestation came in Amundson's ridiculous foul rate of almost exactly one every six minutes, the fourth-worst among centers.
:DANTE CUNNINGHAM, F
+ Slender, mobile combo forward. Lacks range for 3. Good pick-and-roll defender.+ Likes midrange jumper but lacks a go-to weapon offensively. Low-mistake player.+ Can finish in transition but won't create off the dribble. Has no post game.
Cunningham has his uses, especially at the defensive end, where his mobility is a major plus in pick-and-roll defense and any kind of rotating or trapping scheme. He ranked in the top third of power forwards in both blocks and steals per minute, he had a low foul rate, and his metrics were solid. His lone weakness at this end is a poor defensive rebound rate.
But offensively, he's struggling to establish a role. His best and perhaps only skill is the ability to hit 17-footers on the pick-and-pop, but it's not like he's Dirk Nowitzki -- Cunningham made only a third of his shots beyond 10 feet, which is a completely unacceptable performance if you're trying to establish a career as a floor-spacer.
Closer to the rim, he chose his opportunities well and converted a scintillating 79.4 percent, but between a lack of free throws and his zero 3-pointers, he had one of the worst secondary percentages at his position.
If Cunningham were able to extend his range to the corner 3 and to play more regularly on the wing, he might have considerably more value. But with his being 25 years old, we've probably seen all we're getting. He's an undersized 4 whose mobility is helpful defensively, especially against small lineups, but he'll need more offensive zip to be more than a fourth big in the rotation.
:MALCOLM LEE, G
+ Long, athletic guard with elite defensive skills. A potential stopper.+ Handles ball well for size. Very poor outside shooter. Turnover prone.
Lee got into 19 games when Minnesota's guards began dropping like flies and showed that, despite standing 6-foot-5, he's a fairly natural point guard. He had solid assist ratios, and his turnover numbers, while poor, weren't terrible for a rookie point guard. The worry is his shooting -- he averaged only 10.2 points per 40 minutes on 39 percent from the floor and converted only two 3-pointers.
The outlook worsens if one looks at the seven D-League games he played. While he had solid assist ratios, he turned it over too much and shot abysmally -- 33.8 percent from the floor and 0-for-13 on 3-pointers. Yikes. If he can't provide some offense with his defense, he'll have trouble cracking a rotation.
The defense is really good, though. Lee is big for his position and a very good on-ball defender at either guard spot. He could emerge as a stopper in the coming years, especially if he can make an open jump shot or two.
― moullet, Tuesday, 2 October 2012 20:38 (thirteen years ago)
nets/wolves was maybe my most anticipated day
― lil dirk (J0rdan S.), Tuesday, 2 October 2012 20:46 (thirteen years ago)
for me too! loved the wolves
kyrie irving card out today, and the defensive numbers are .. amazing
will post whole stuff briefly
― moullet, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 20:39 (thirteen years ago)
KYRIE IRVING, PG
+ High-efficiency point guard who can score, facilitate and drive with either hand.+ Excels at keeping defenders off balance. Good outside shooter and foul shooter.+ Good athlete, but not freakish. Big for a point guard. Defense needs serious work.
I'm still big on the Irving bandwagon. Who wouldn't be after he ranked fifth among point guards in PER as a 19-year-old rookie?
But I'll say this: When they're replacing you with Ramon Sessions for defensive purposes, that might be a sign you have work to do. As good as Irving was on offense, he was a horrifying, flaming train wreck on defense. Synergy rated him the worst defensive player in the league with at least 300 plays defended, opposing point guards ripped him for a 19.0 PER according to 82games.com, and the Cavs gave up 5.0 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court -- even though his usual replacement, Sessions, was himself among the league's most flammable point guards.
Irving is so young and skilled that one presumes he'll make strong progress, especially after jumping into the NBA after just a handful of college games. Too often he just didn't know what to do or where he was supposed to be, and that's all stuff he'll learn.
Meanwhile, he's a breathtaking offensive talent with an airtight handle and deep shooting ability. Irving made 39.9 percent of his triples as a rookie and shot 60.4 percent at the basket, a nice combo that sums up his inside-outside threat. He also shot 87.2 percent from the line, which is amazing for a teenage rookie.
The one concern is that he played more as a scorer than as a passer, ranking only 58th among point guards in assist rate and 59th in pure point rating. Granted, there weren't a lot of options, but to reach superstardom he'll need to be a better distributor and play less as an undersized 2.
With all that said ... if he's this good at 19, I shudder to think what he'll be at 25.
:DION WAITERS, SG
+ Powerful combo guard who can get to basket and finish. Good handle.+ May be able to play point. A bit undersized for 2. Average outside shooter.
Why should we be so excited about a guy who came off the bench in college and had some attitude questions leaving high school? Well, Waiters essentially has the statistical profile of a mini-Dwyane Wade or a Tyreke Evans. He's a high scorer who can get to the basket and finish -- shooting 53 percent on 2s as a guard is pretty impressive. But he also has unusually strong assist and turnover numbers for a wing player, as well as enormous rate of steals -- the highest of any draft prospect this year, despite Syracuse's heavy use of zone defense -- and the highest blocked-shot rate of any player 6-4 or shorter.
He's not a great shooter, but it's not like he's terrible, either -- he was 73 percent from the line and 36 percent from 3, and he handles well enough that he might be able to play the point. Wings with profiles this strong virtually never fail; while his size and shooting may prevent him from becoming a big star, I think his worst-case scenario is that he's Marcus Thornton.
:ALONZO GEE, SF
+ Well-built, athletic wing who draws fouls. Mediocre shooter at best.+ Below average ball skills. Poor decision-maker. Good rebounder.+ Good strength on defense but average quickness and reactions.
A D-League success story, Gee became a full-blown NBA-caliber player last season and took over the starting small forward job, even seeing some action as a defensive stopper. Gee's activity and athleticism are his key skills, as he was sixth among small forwards in free throw rate and ninth in steals.
His forays to the basket aren't always a great idea -- he tends to make his mind up about a 10th of a second into his move and not change it -- and that takes us to his biggest issue, turnovers. Gee had the sixth-worst turnover ratio at his position and landed in the bottom 10 in pure point rating; as a complementary player he can't do that. He also needs to stop the ball less and makes quicker moves.
Gee also still needs work as a shooter. He made 32.1 percent of his 3s and 33.3 percent of his long 2s, which is barely adequate. The free throws were enough to give him respectable numbers overall, but his offensive game still needs a lot of rounding out.
Defensively, he's a solid player who improved with more experience last season. At 6-foot-6 he's a bit short for a 3 and not great laterally, but Gee has good strength and athleticism. Overall he's not a stopper, but he's solid now and will likely get better at this end.
:TRISTAN THOMPSON, PF
+ Long lefty forward who can finish around basket and hit short hooks.+ Excellent rebounder with great motor. Poor shooter, especially from line.+ Limited post game. Gets to basket and draws fouls. Struggles to go up off catch.
Thompson's two standout skills as a collegian carried over to his rookie season in the pros: He's a great offensive rebounder and he draws a ton of fouls. Thompson ranked sixth among centers in offensive rebound rate and 15th in free throw rate, although the latter was somewhat diminished by his putrid foul shooting (55.2 percent).
Thompson, however, did little else of significance. His catching skills were a major disappointment -- any time he catches en route to the rim, he has to stop and gather himself before going up, and for that reason he was constantly stripped around the basket. Thompson also needs to improve his post game; he took a third of his shots from 3 to 9 feet but made only 31.7 percent of them. He has some elements to build on here, as he can get his shot off, but the ball needs to go in. As for jump shooting, just forget it dude. Thompson made 11-of-56 from 10 feet and beyond, with form that suggested it was no fluke.
Thompson disappointed in two other areas. First, he had 27 assists the entire season and had one of the worst assist rates in basketball -- you'd like him to show a bit more feel than that. Of greater concern, his defensive rebound rate was among the worst at his position; this was supposed to be a strength of his.
Defensively Thompson took the usual rookie lumps but wasn't bad in the big picture. He blocked shots at a decent rate and unlike many rookies he wasn't particularly foul prone, even though he often played center rather than his natural power forward spot. He'll hold his own at this end; the concern is how well his offense will come around.
:ANDERSON VAREJAO, C
+ Mop-topped, high-energy big man who excels in pick-and-roll defense.+ Injuries a worry. Can handle ball but a poor shooter. Rebounds well.+ Lacks post game. Moves well without ball and finishes. Pesky post defender.
Statistically Varejao was as good as ever before an injury prematurely ended his season, but I'm a little concerned that he may have lost a step defensively. While he did a lot of the usual freaky Varejao things (in a game against Phoenix, for instance, he forced a five-second count on an inbound pass by denying Steve Nash; find me another center who does that), there were too many games where middling opposing bigs had their way with him. For the year opposing centers had a 19.6 PER at his expense according to 82games.com, and Synergy rated him below the league average. It's a small sample, given the injury, but it bears watching going forward.
Varejao rebounded like crazy, however, ranking in the top five among centers in both offensive and defensive rebound rate and finishing fourth in the league overall. He also got more involved offensively, setting a career high in points per minute despite taking nearly all his shots in the basket area.
Varejao's injuries also are getting worrisome; 2011-12 was his third half-season in five years. He turned 30 before training camp, and one wonders if his frenetic style is taking a toll.
:OMRI CASSPI, SF
+ Speedy combo forward who can run floor. Skinny but likes to bang.+ Inconsistent shooter with unusual, low release on jumper. Subpar handle.+ Lacks strength for 4. No post game at all. Good rebounder for perimeter player.
Casspi struggled all season as a full-time 3 and eventually lost his starting job, as he just doesn't shoot consistently enough to provide a floor-spacing threat as a wing. Casspi shot just 31.5 percent on 3s and 33.9 percent on long 2s; with more than half his shots coming from the perimeter, this just wasn't good enough. He has a line-drive, low release shot and tends to fall back while he shoots it, and he's not a good foul shooter either (67.6 percent career).
Where Casspi excels is when he can run the floor and score in transition, or get the ball on the move going to the rim. He lacks a great handle but he's long and fast and draws a decent number of fouls. However, he struggles to create his own shot and had a high turnover rate for a low-volume shooter. Sum it up and he was below-average at just about every aspect of offense, but not truly awful at anything. Developing a post game to take advantage of his size might help.
Casspi's strongest area is rebounding, where he ranked in the top third of small forwards. He's not bad defensively either; he's aggressive and fouls too much, but he held opposing small forwards to a 13.1 PER last season according to 82games.com.
Nonetheless, he has to make more shots to be more than a deep rotation player. He's competent in several areas, but has yet to do anything well enough to establish a real niche as a player.
:DANIEL GIBSON, SG
+ A 2 in a 1's body. Fairly quick and a good outside shooter off the catch.+ Horrid finisher at basket and struggles to connect on jumpers off dribble.+ Size a negative on defense, especially as a 2. Tough and competes.
Gibson followed up his best season with his worst, as his play fell off a cliff last season in several categories and rendered him pretty much unplayable. Gibson shot 29.4 percent on 2-pointers last season; let that marinate and sink in for a minute. That was the second-worst mark in basketball of any player to play at least 500 minutes, with only the mummified Mike Bibby faring worse. Included in this was a 12-of-63 performance on jumpers from beyond ten feet, which is amazing given Gibson's alleged specialty of shooting.
Worst 2-point shooting percentage, 2011-12Player Team 2-pt FG%Mike Bibby NY 20.5Daniel Gibson Cle 29.4DeShawn Stevenson NJ 29.6James Jones Mia 30.6Chauncey Billups LAC 34.0Min. 500 minutes
While Gibson shot well on 3s (39.6 percent) and took more than half his shots from downtown, he was so unbelievably bad inside the arc that it still dragged him down to a bottom-10 TS% among shooting guards. And as a floor-spacing, low-volume sniper, his TS% is his entire reason for being on the floor. Gibson also saw a hike in his turnover rate, which was odd because he was playing almost entirely off the ball. It's not clear why his offensive game melted down so much, but if it doesn't come back he's worthless.
Defensively, at least, Gibson retains some value. He's a tweener, but he competes and he's pretty good against point guards in particular; with Kyrie Irving's size that give them some opportunities to cross-match. The Cavs gave up 3.3 points per 100 possessions less with Gibson on the floor, and his other data was solid as well -- including a surprisingly robust rebound rate for a 6-2 shooting guard.
:C.J. MILES, SF
+ Smooth, long, left-handed wing who can attack basket. Scorer's mentality.+ Decent athlete with length to play solid defense. Fouls too often.+ Takes too many long 2s off dribble. Shot selection, court vision need work.
Miles disappointed after seeming to break out a year earlier, as he was plagued by poor decisions on both ends. Offensively, Miles was a high-usage, low-efficiency guy, plagued by a zest for long jumpers and an inability to make them. He shot 29.9 percent on 3s, 28.6 percent on long 2s, and 29.0 percent from 3-to-9 feet. Despite a smooth-looking stroke he apparently stinks at shooting 3s and needs to tone it down; he's now at 32.9 percent for his career but has taken more than a third of his shots from out there.
He's much better at the cup. Miles shot 61.9 percent at the rim and had a high free throw rate, but with only a quarter of his shots coming from there it didn't matter.
Meanwhile, his rebound rate mysteriously dissolved -- only three small forwards fared worse -- and his defense failed to make up for his shooting woes. Miles had the sixth-highest foul rate at his position, just like he does every year, but has failed to translate that aggression into meaningful results. He's not a bad defender, but he's nobody's idea of a stopper and makes some crazy decisions going for blocks that he has no chance of getting.
:TYLER ZELLER, C
+ Mobile, efficient 7-footer who runs floor well and has soft touch out to 18 feet.+ Could use more strength. Lacks a single standout skill. Makes free throws.
It's nice to have a 7-footer who shoots 81 percent from the line, and Zeller will likely be efficient enough to have a solid career as a backup 5. Whether he can be anything more than that is an open question. He's old for a rookie, turning 23 in January, and he didn't have any real standout numbers in college other than his shooting efficiency.
That's the reason he fell in the draft -- other centers like Meyers Leonard and Andre Drummond weren't as good in college but offered a lot more upside. The benefit for Cleveland is that Zeller can play immediately as a backup 5, and his ability to run should mesh well with their preferred playing style.
:JON LEUER, PF
+ Long pick-and-pop threat who can also finish at rim. Rarely turns it over.+ Capable finisher but doesn't draw fouls. Very poor rebounder for size.+ Must add strength. Competes on defense but fouls too much.
Leuer had an awfully productive rookie season for a guy who was included as a throw-in and then summarily waived. Despite no apparent rhyme or reason to his appearances in Milwaukee, where he was an occasional starter and occasional 12th man, Leuer was one of the league's most productive rookies. He scored at a very solid clip for a secondary player (15.1 points per 40 minutes) and made 41.9 percent of his long 2s.
Leuer also converted a surprising 73.3 percent in the basket area, and had the sixth-lowest turnover rate at his position. However, the other metrics weren't as inspiring -- he was 50th in rebound rate, had the 10th highest foul rate, and never got to the line.
The worst part, however, is what those numbers portend. High-efficiency rookies like Leuer tend to regress in their second season, especially when it's built on 2-point shooting percentage, as much of the time that efficiency turns out to be an outlier. You can ask Patrick Patterson or Ed Davis if you don't believe me.
Nonetheless, even if Leuer regresses this season he's still likely to be a useful player, and one that Cleveland snagged very cheaply after two other clubs cast him aside.
:SAMARDO SAMUELS, PF
+ Brutish power forward who can get deep post position and make short hooks.+ Game is all power. Lacks elevation and athleticism. Left hand needs work.+ Solid, physical defender who defends post. Fouls like crazy. Awful ball handler.
After two years as a rotation player, the only fair conclusion about Samuels is that he's not quite good enough to be a rotation player. Samuels has one elite skill: an ability to draw fouls around the basket. Last season he was fifth among power forwards in free throw rate and made a respectable 70.1 percent from the stripe.
But he was below average in every other metric. All of them. Not dramatically so in most cases, but consistently below the norm for his position at everything. His ballhandling skill, or lack thereof, merits special mention however: Samuels had the second-worst pure point rating among power forwards last season and one of the worst in basketball (see Timofey Mozgov comment).
Samuels lacks great mobility on defense and responds with over physicality. He was fourth among power forwards in foul rate, but if you allow for that he was effective defensively. Cleveland gave up a whopping 10.2 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, which sounds awesome until you remember he usually replaced Antawn Jamison, but Synergy's stats graded him well and his opponent PERs were respectable. That and the free throws make him a nice fifth big man, but that seems to be the limit.
:LUKE HARANGODY, F
+ Undersized, powerfully built forward who can rebound. Doesn't draw fouls.+ Likes line-drive outside jumper. Has low release point. Poor finisher.+ Strong, but an awful defender who can't move or jump. Can't create own shot.
Harangody played 21 games late season and shot 35.4 percent; somehow, the Cavs gave him a qualifying offer anyway. He's trying to establish himself as a floor-spacing big man, which would work better if he could shoot -- he's at 24.1 percent on 3s for his career and 35.4 percent overall.
Harangody did play 16 games in the D-League and shot more respectably at that level, hitting 41.3 percent of his 3s, but even with his jumper finding the net more regularly he wasn't a notably effective player overall. Between his defensive limitations and his non-functioning pick-and-pop game, it's hard to see him sticking in the league for long.
:JEREMY PARGO, PG
+ Erratic point guard with scorer's mindset. Struggles as a secondary role player.+ Poor outside shooter. Lack of size makes him defensive liability. Turnover-prone.
A periodic contributor to Memphis' rotating disaster at backup point guard, Pargo had solid translated European stats but shot bricks with the Grizzlies, making 33.3 percent. Given that they brought him in as a scorer, that was a wee bit of a problem.
Pargo had other issues too, like a phenomenally high turnover rate and an inability to draw fouls, but the crux of the issue was that he couldn't shoot. As a finisher, he was solid, making 60.7 percent at the rim, but outside the restricted area he shot an unfathomably bad 24-of-102. That figure includes 3s, but he was actually even worse on the 2s.
Given his limited burn one must assume Pargo isn't quite this bad, but he'd have to be considerably better just to merit consideration for playing time. Also, he permitted an 18.9 opponent PER according to 82games.com, among other generally unimpressive defensive stats, and will have to improve that area as well. All told, he has an uphill battle to regain the minutes bestowed on him in 2011-12.
:KELENNA AZUBUIKE, SF
+ Scoring-minded wing who has hardly played since serious 2009 knee injury.+ At peak, a capable finisher who can also make 3s. Middling at best defensively.
Azubuike played 18 minutes for Dallas last season, and in a burst of optimism the Mavs also guaranteed his contract for this season. He's since been shipped off to Cleveland, where he's likely to serve as cap ballast. He's only 28 but basically he hasn't played in three years, and at this point it would be an upset if he makes the roster, let alone earns meaningful playing time.
:DONALD SLOAN, PG
+ Pass-first point guard with good size. Midrange shooter but never makes 3s.+ Low-energy defender who struggles to stay in front of quick guards.
Sloan played extremely well in nine D-League games for Reno, but couldn't back it up at the NBA level for Atlanta, New Orleans and, mostly, Cleveland. Of particular concern is his inability to space the floor, as he made just two 3-pointers at the NBA level in 25 tries. Sloan shot better on long 2s (37.3 percent), but even this was short of where he needs to be.
Defensively, Sloan was a turnstile and needs to get better. Opposing point guards had a 21.3 PER against him according to 82games.com, his Synergy rating was among the league's worst, and the Cavs gave up 8.3 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. Sloan also had the second-worst steals rate among point guards.
Sloan's passing was his best asset, averaging 6.3 assists per 40 minutes, but his turnover rate was too high -- a common malady for rookies. The major concerns, however, are that he doesn't space the floor and doesn't defend. Those two weaknesses likely consign his career to 10-day increments going forward.
:LUKE WALTON, SF
+ Combo forward with great court vision but serious back problems.+ Can't move anymore. At all. Painful to watch last season.+ Handles ball well but an average outside shooter.
Cleveland played Walton regularly after acquiring him from the Lakers, and it could not have been a more transparent tanking strategy. The guy can't move anymore and one suspects he'll be waived or bought out at some point this season by the rebuilding Cavs. I'm reluctant to hammer the guy -- he got out there and played when he could have just cashed checks -- but his past two seasons have been far below the standard of a roster spot, let alone a rotation player.
― moullet, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 20:42 (thirteen years ago)
gs warriors
STEPHEN CURRY, PG
+ Gifted scoring guard with deadly outside shot and ankles made of talc.+ B athlete who lacks explosive burst. Tall for point guard but slightly built.+ Suspect defender with thin frame and average mobility. Not a great distributor.
Curry put together another fine campaign when he was on the court, but a series of ankle sprains put a damper on it and cost him nearly two-thirds of the season.
Offensively, there's no reason for worry. Curry ranked second among point guards in true shooting percentage, shooting 45.5 percent on 3s and a ridiculous 54.7 percent on long 2s. You wish he'd use the threat of his shot to up-fake and draw more fouls, but he scored better than a point every two minutes with spectacular efficiency. As a point guard, however, he's average at best; while he makes lefty off-the-dribble passes like he's Steve Nash, he doesn't get into the paint with ease or see the whole court, and he's fairly turnover-prone for a jump shooter.
Curry is never going to be an all-defensive team candidate, but he improved substantially last season, picking up his effort and ranking among the top dozen point guards in both blocks and steals per minute. He still fouls too much and guards faster players too closely at times, but the Warriors played substantially better with him on the court (partly because Nate Robinson was the alternative, but still) and his other data indicated he did a solid job.
:KLAY THOMPSON, SG
+ Long-range shooter with good size for shooting guard. Smart player.+ B athlete but uses screens well to create shots and can shoot over small 2s.+ Size an asset on defense but quickness a liability. Will need to add strength.
Thompson had a solid rookie season, especially after the All-Star break, when he began drawing fouls and attacking more confidently. His stellar jump shot is the key. He made 41.4 percent of his 3s, which is amazing for a rookie adjusting to a longer 3-point line, and proved it wasn't a fluke by making 41.5 percent of his long 2s and hitting 86.8 percent from the line. Between Thompson and Stephen Curry, this is without a doubt the best shooting backcourt in basketball.
Despite that stellar shooting, Thompson's true shooting percentage was mediocre. He just didn't draw enough fouls or get enough easy looks at the basket, especially in the first half of the season. Less than one-sixth of his shots came in the basket area, so his 2-point shooting percentage was unremarkable, and because of the lack of free throws so was his secondary percentage -- even with scalding shooting on 3s. Thompson might also do well to convert some long 2s into 3s: He didn't shoot a particularly high number of 3s for a shooting guard, even though he's a deadly shooter.
Outside of scoring, Thompson was unremarkable at best. He doesn't create much for teammates and he made too many turnovers for a jump shooter, ranking below the league average for shooting guards.
Defensively, he was hardly a stopper but fared better than some suspected. Thompson is big and will block shots, but he had the fifth-highest foul rate at his position and his lateral movement against 2s remains in question. Last season's data is mixed: Golden State gave up more points with him on the court and Synergy ranked him poorly, but opposing shooting guards mustered just an 11.4 PER against him, according to 82games.com.
:BRANDON RUSH, SF
+ Quality defender with good size and athleticism. Lousy handle inhibits scoring.+ Good outside shooter and can finish at rim, but doesn't move without ball.+ Improved rebounder. No in-between game. Rarely fouls.
After three seasons of floating aimlessly through games, Rush finally put his shooting and athleticism to use, becoming the key player in the Warriors' bench unit and dramatically improving his shooting and rebounding numbers.
Obviously, there's a concern that this was a fluke year -- a low-motor guy playing far better in a contract year has to raise some red flags -- but Rush's biggest shift was that he shot the ball better. He rarely gets to the rim despite his athleticism -- he just doesn't have that kind of handle or feel -- but he shot 45.2 percent on 3s and 46.2 percent on long 2s. Rush also shot well in the basket area, as always (67.2 percent), and as a result he was fourth among shooting guards in both 2-point shooting and true shooting percentage.
Defensively, Rush really dialed up his effort. He nearly doubled his shot-block rate and has some spectacular rejections of opposing bigs around the basket. Overall he was second in blocks per minute among shooting guards, and amazingly he also had the third-lowest foul rate. Rush also upped his rebound rate to a career best, ranking 10th at his position. His other data wasn't as strong, but subjectively his performance last season supported the idea that he's a plus defender, especially when he can guard 2s.
:DAVID LEE, PF
+ Highly skilled forward who can dribble, pass, run floor and shoot out to 18 feet.+ Excellent rebounder at both ends. Lefty, but great right-hand finisher.+ Horrible defensive player. Rarely helps, lacks strength and doesn't block shots.
Lee had a typical Lee season, with exquisite offense and pretend defense. The result: a neutral player overall with star stats.
Let's start with the good stuff -- Lee's skill level is tough for opponents to handle. He averaged 21.6 points per 40 minutes, putting him fifth among power forwards, while shooting an eye-popping 67.9 percent in the basket area (on nearly seven attempts a game) and nailing 39.8 percent of his long 2s. Golden State tried to post him up a lot and probably should stop, as he wasn't effective in the 3-to-9 foot range, but that's about my only quibble. Lee is a good passer, draws fouls and makes his free throws.
All this production barely offsets his defense. While Lee is a good defensive rebounder, he's never shown an inclination to participate much in any other phase of the game at this end. This was particularly true when the Warriors went small with Lee at center. He was torched for a 22.6 PER in those situations, but permitted a more respectable 14.2 mark at power forward, according to 82games.ocm.
It's off the ball where he really fades from the scene: Lee just doesn't help. Only seven power forwards blocked shots less often, and the Warriors once again gave up more points (3.8 per 100 possessions) with Lee on the floor. Having Andrew Bogut behind him will help limit the carnage, but it won't make Lee any better. He can't just stand on the opposite block and watch while an opposing guard shoots a clean layup.
:ANDREW BOGUT, C
+ Top-notch defensive player who blocks shots, takes charges and rebounds.+ Low-post scoring threat who finishes with left more than right.+ Limited shooting range. Poor foul shooter. Still affected by 2010 elbow injury.
There's an impression out there that Bogut is a good defensive player, so I just want to clarify: He's not good. He's a freaking monster.
Let's sample Bogut's brief 2011-12 season: Synergy ranked him among the elite centers, opposing centers had a 13.2 PER against him, according to 82games.om, and the Bucks gave up 9.9 points per 100 possessions less with him the court.
This isn't a small-sample thing; Bogut's numbers look like this every year. He annually ranks among the league leaders in both blocks and charges per minute with an elite defensive rebound rate, and was in the midst of single-handedly shutting out Houston's offense on the night he was injured.
Unfortunately, that takes us to the first of Bogut's two big "buts" -- the injuries. He's played 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and while last season's total of 12 is an outlier, a total in the 60s is probably what Golden State should expect.
The second "but" is that he hasn't been the same offensively since a 2010 elbow injury, sporting sub-50 true shooting percentages the past two seasons and seemingly losing all faith in his ability to shoot with his right hand. Bogut had been very effective the three previous seasons, and not needing to be a go-to guy in Golden State should help, but it's tough for him to be a plus offensively unless he converts a higher percentage.
:JARRETT JACK, PG
+ Combo guard who has become deadly midrange shooter and added floater.+ Good handle, can get to rim, but an average athlete. Rarely shoots 3s.+ Strong but lacks lateral quickness. Struggles vs. point guards but can check 2s.
Jack had his best pro season despite the league's taking away his beloved "rip" move, setting career highs in multiple advanced stats categories. The key was an astonishing improvement in his short- and midrange game. Jack became very fond of pull-up jumpers going left and floaters going to his right, and both shots found the net with regularity. He shot 44.3 percent on 2s beyond 10 feet and 44.7 percent from 3 to 9 feet, the latter an area where most small guards struggle mightily. Despite all the jumpers and pull-ups, he was crafty enough to still draw fouls at a decent rate too.
Jack did all this with a very low turnover ratio, so despite his not being the most deft of passers, his pure point rating put him 20th among point guards. About the only weakness was his long-range game: Jack shot 34.8 percent on 3s and rarely seeks the shot out. Also notable is that Jack piled up a lot of cheap assists, ranking near the bottom of point guards in assist quality.
As effective as Jack was offensively at the point, he still defends much better as a 2. He just doesn't have the lateral movement to stop quick guards and we saw that again this past season; Synergy rated him well below average, the Hornets gave up 3.2 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court, and opposing point guards had a 16.7 PER against him according to 82games.com.
The downside to Jack's season is that it qualifies for the Fluke Rule, which means he's probably going to regress a fair amount this coming season. Still, he can be a valuable combo guard thanks to his subtle offensive skills, especially if he has the ball in his hands on offense and can check 2s on defense.
:CARL LANDRY, PF
+ Undersized power forward with knack for scoring in paint and drawing fouls.+ Overmatched against long post players and not much of a help defender.+ 15-foot range, but shoots too many jumpers. Poor rebounder. Knees a concern.
Landry put up some of the best offensive numbers of his career for a scoring-starved team, but he was such a liability on defense that he still was in and out of the rotation, playing 24 minutes a game and starting eight times.
Let's start with the good news: This guy can score. A face-up 4 with a solid midrange game and a great knack around the rim, Landry shot a sizzling 69.4 percent in the basket area with the fourth-highest foul rate at his position. He also hit 38.0 percent from beyond 10 feet -- not great, but it kept defenders honest -- and overall ranked seventh among power forwards in true shooting percentage while scoring better than a point every two minutes. Scoring like that has serious value, and it makes him an undervalued player.
However, he doesn't provide much else. He's not passing once he puts it on the floor, ranking 66th out of 70 power forwards in pure point rating, and defensively he was inconsistent. Landry improved his rebounding but ranked in the bottom 10 power forwards in both blocks and steals per minute. He's tough and his other metrics weren't bad, but New Orleans monitored his matchups carefully to keep him out of trouble.
:RICHARD JEFFERSON, SF
+ Athletic wing who has lost some explosiveness. Good scorer around rim.+ Good first step to right but a weak ballhandler. Can make corner 3s off catch.+ Solid defensive player. Good size and moves well. Declining rebounder.
Jefferson set career lows in shooting percentage, field goal percentage, true shooting percentage and scoring rate, and at this point is a back-of-rotation wing given his offensive decline. That said, he was still the Warriors' best small forward at the end of last season, and they'll likely use him more now that they aren't tanking.
Renowned for an explosive first step to his right, Jefferson has become almost strictly a jump shooter -- last season he took 262 3-pointers and just 42 shots in the basket area. Which is unfortunate, because he's never shot terribly well from the perimeter. Jefferson made 42.0 percent of his 3s last season, but that's an outlier: The 36.7 percent he made on long 2s is more indicative of his career norms. He also shot very infrequently, although he was at least able to cut his turnovers by relying more on jumpers.
Defensively, Jefferson still does a decent job. The Warriors gave up more points with him on the court than off, but that was because they gave up on the season by the time he joined the team; San Antonio showed no such trend. Meanwhile opposing small forwards had a 12.4 PER against him with the Spurs and just a 9.8 mark with the Warriors, according to 82games.com.
:HARRISON BARNES, SF
+ Big wing with smooth outside shot, especially from midrange. Good athlete.+ Can take ball to basket and score. Strong defensive player with ideal size for 3.
Barnes had a ton of hype coming out of school, but I'd temper my expectations for him as a pro. He'll be solid, especially defensively, but I have trouble seeing star talent here. He's a good outside shooter but hardly a great one -- he was in the mid-30s on 3s, the mid-70s from the line and he shot under 50 percent on 2s in both of his seasons at North Carolina. Barnes also had the lowest assist ratio of any perimeter prospect, underscoring the subjective assessment that he doesn't have the requisite feel to be an elite offensive player.
The best case for drafting him is that he projects as a very strong defensive player, similar to Chicago's Luol Deng in size and athletic ability, and he's by all accounts a smart, likeable guy. He's undeniably an NBA player; I just question whether he'll develop enough offensively to justify being such a high draft pick.
:CHARLES JENKINS, PG
+ Strong, scoring-minded combo guard with excellent midrange jumper.+ Not an elite athlete. Better distributor than advertised. Needs to draw fouls.+ Defensive potential due to strength, size. Big enough to check some 2s.
Well, it was good enough to have me intrigued. Jenkins got the starting gig after injuries cleaned out Golden State's backcourt and showed signs that he might be a keeper, flashing a deadly midrange jumper that he set up with a nice crossover move. Jenkins hit an amazing 46.6 percent of his 2s from beyond 10 feet, one of the best rates in the league.
The problem was that he relied on it too much. He made only three 3-pointers and didn't get to the rim enough to draw a lot of fouls. As a result he was 69th out of 70 point guards in secondary percentage. That has to change; odds are strong that he won't shoot quite so well on long 2s going forward, and even shooting as well as he did a year ago his true shooting percentage was only 53rd at his position.
But if he can add 3-point range, he's a player. Jenkins proved a much better distributor than advertised, ranking above the league average for point guards in assist ratio, turnover ratio and pure point rating. Defensively, he fouled a lot and took the usual rookie lumps, but his other data suggests he was competent. If he can get his true shooting percentage into the 50s, he'll be a fixture.
:ANDRIS BIEDRINS, C
+ Lean, athletic, left-handed center who appears to have lost interest in game.+ Good finisher but terrified of getting fouled. Incredibly bad foul shooter.+ Excellent rebounder. Lacks strength and picks up fouls in bunches.
Biedrins' foul shooting has basically sapped his will to compete. A good offensive player in his prime, now he hides. He's so terrified of going to the line that he had, by far, the lowest usage rate in the league (see chart). He's 15-of-65 from the line over the past three seasons, just hammering line drives into the front rim, and unless you're Ben Wallace in his prime it's tough to stay on the court with such a pittance of scoring.
Lowest usage rate, 2011-12Player Team Usage RateAndris Biedrins GS 4.7Ben Wallace Det 6.5Joel Anthony Mia 6.9Reggie Evans LAC 8.1DeShawn Stevenson NJ 8.9Min. 500 minutes
For some reason, the Warriors started him for much of last season anyway. Worse yet, they used the amnesty provision on Charlie Bell instead of Biedrins and now have him on their books for two more seasons. He looks like he'd rather be doing anything else at this point, but he's not walking away from $18 million either.
:FESTUS EZELI, C
+ Big, defensive center who can block shots, defend post and run floor.+ Needs more experience. Lacks feel. Foul prone. Limited post game.
Ezeli's new teammate Harrison Barnes had the lowest assist ratio among perimeter players in the draft; guess who was the worst among bigs. No, the Warriors aren't drafting for passing, it seems, but Ezeli can do some other things that will help. He's a long-armed 7-footer who can block shots and defend, making him a very useful backup center.
Offensively, he probably won't contribute much beyond dunks, though he did draw fouls at a very high rate in college and he's not terrible from the line. But his ball-handling data is cover-your-eyes bad. Unless he's wide open under the basket, the less he's touching the rock the better.
:DRAYMOND GREEN, SF
+ Undersized, unathletic power forward with advanced passing and ball skills.+ Excellent rebounder. Will be overmatched defensively. Lacks quickness and size.
One of those guys who just knows how to play, Green put up incredibly strong numbers as a collegian despite standing just 6-7 and basically looking nothing like a basketball player. His lack of size and athleticism could be a major issue for him as a pro, which explains why he slipped to the second round, but teams were overthinking this one.
Green was hugely productive in college, with unusually strong ball-handling numbers from a frontcourt player, a very high rebound rate, and rates of blocks and steals that belie his rep as a non-athlete. He hit 3s at a decent clip, scored at a high rate and created a ton of offense. While he'll be playing off the ball more as a pro, there's no question he can be a very effective smallball 4 -- and he'll crush on the boards.
It's not all roses here -- Green's defensive shortcomings are real -- but it's a bit ridiculous that he lasted 'til the 35th pick. Golden State may have itself a steal.
:JEREMY TYLER, F
+ Well-built, long-armed, athletic big man with questionable motor.+ Needs game experience. Shooting, feel and overall skill level need improvement.
Tyler got a lot of action late in the season, and for a 20-year-old kid who had hardly played the past two years, he wasn't completely awful. Let's start there. Tyler had respectable rebound and block rates for a center and created a lot of shots without too many turnovers.
Unfortunately, there's still a long way to go. Tyler likes to shoot mid-range J's but shot 16-of-51 from beyond 10 feet; the Warriors also fed him in the post quite a bit but he struggled to score one-on-one, failed to draw fouls and exposes the ball in the paint a lot. Between all that he had the third-worst TS% among centers, making his shots a losing proposition. Tyler also played five games in the D-League, where he shot better but had zero assists in 146 minutes; overall he was decent but hardly dominating.
Defensively, he has a lot to learn. Opposing centers shredded him for a 23.6 PER last season according to 82games.com, although this was often with a glorified D-League team surrounding him. Again, Tyler has some skills, the question is more his commitment to developing them. The hope is that with game experience he can become a competent two-way backup center.
― moullet, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 20:43 (thirteen years ago)
Wow, thanks for posting this great + informative thread J0rdan S., and moullet.
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Wednesday, 3 October 2012 21:49 (thirteen years ago)
Thanks!
― Spottie_Ottie_Dope, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 22:10 (thirteen years ago)
Warriors will be... interesting.
― Spottie_Ottie_Dope, Wednesday, 3 October 2012 22:11 (thirteen years ago)
Perhaps no player in history has declined as sharply in one season as Odom did in 2011-12. Empirically, we can prove this. I have a database that goes back more than two decades, and Odom is the first player in its history to have a player efficiency rating (PER) decline of more than 10 points in a single season (see chart). Take it from an Atlantan -- when you can knock Speedy Claxton's 2006-07 season off the top five chart, you've done something.
yowch
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Wednesday, 3 October 2012 22:34 (thirteen years ago)
team reviews now
miami heat
Prediction: 64-18, 1st in Southeast Division, 1st in Eastern Conference
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 46-20 (Pythagorean W-L: 49-17)Offensive Efficiency: 104.3 (6th)Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (4th)Pace Factor: 93.7 (14th)Highest PER: LeBron James (30.80)
Overview
They did it. And now the rest of the league is scared.
More than the fact that the Heat won a championship with their three-man core of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh was how they won it. Over the course of three weeks at the end of the playoffs, Miami figured out a lot of the things it had been tripping over for most of the past two years.
Better late than never, right? In particular, the Heat finally figured out the benefits of spacing the floor and allowing James and Wade to have more room to do their thing. Meanwhile, James and Wade figured out that more quick-hitting plays were better than the your-turn, my-turn isos that had plagued them for much of their first two seasons together.
Organizationally, Miami had been committed to a more traditional mindset of playing with two conventional big men, committing to a five-year deal to Joel Anthony and bringing in assorted other veteran deadwood to serve as its rotating center committee. It's instructive to note that these guys hardy played in the postseason after Bosh returned in Game 6 of the Boston series -- Anthony, for instance, played six minutes in the final seven playoff games. From that point forward, using Bosh as a center and Shane Battier as the starting power forward, the Heat were nigh unbeatable.
Such was the irony of the NBA Finals: The Heat made the young, up-and-coming Thunder look like the dinosaurs, spacing the floor and taking advantage of Oklahoma City's commitment to playing with two traditional big men.
Of course, all of this is much easier when you have the best player in the league at your disposal. And with James having shaken off that giant monkey on his back, things seemingly will only get easier from here.
Yet the Bosh injury also pointed out the frailty of Miami's pursuit. This team still has precious little depth or talent aside from its top three players, and losing just one of them puts this team at a severe disadvantage. Given the injury histories of Bosh and Wade in particular, that's enough to give anyone pause before launching into dynasty talk.
Finances are another concern. Miami already has $87 million committed in 2013-14 salary, the first season the more draconian luxury tax kicks in, and despite what some may think this is not a particularly great market revenue-wise. It's quite possible the Heat will have to shed talent next summer -- amnestying Mike Miller, cutting the non-guaranteed Mario Chalmers, letting Ray Allen walk, etc. -- in order to keep their financial house in order.
But for now, they're back, and looking better than ever.
2011-12 Recap
After clearing a few hurdles, Miami's season ended with its first championship of the Big Three era.
It's easy to forget now, but Miami's march to the title wasn't exactly preordained. Does the phrase "good job, good effort" ring a bell? The Heat finished just 46-20, five games behind top-seeded Chicago, had to win a road elimination game in Boston, and trailed each of their final three playoff opponents before rallying.
As noted above, Miami's commitment to playing with a traditional center was a big part of the Heat's regular-season strategy before they chucked it late in the playoffs. Anthony and assorted castoffs such as Dexter Pittman, Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry and Ronny Turiaf combined to play over 2,000 minutes -- more minutes than Bosh -- and Pittman even started a playoff game. This strategy proved counteractive on two levels, both producing a suboptimal lineup and committing several roster spots that could have been used on developing younger players.
It helps when you have LeBron and Wade, though. And for all its talent, Miami also worked very hard at the defensive end. The Heat finished fourth in defensive efficiency and, unlike some teams, their stars were a huge factor in their success. Their one weakness was defending the 3-point line, which gave them particular trouble early in the season before some adjustments cooled off the opposition. Heat opponents shot 36.3 percent on 3s and took a quarter of their shots from that distance; Miami was 26th in opponent percentage and 27th in opponent frequency.
The tradeoff was that the Heat were third in forcing turnovers, with miscues on 17.6 percent of opponent possessions. This had a nice secondary effect, as turnovers generally led to highlight-reel dunks because of Wade and James' dominance in transition.
Offensively, though it's hard to believe after what happened in the Finals, the Heat were one of the league's least-frequent 3-point shooters. Wade all but abandoned the shot and James didn't take it a lot either, plus the Heat gave a lot of regular-season minutes to role players who couldn't shoot. Only 19.8 percent of their shots were 3s, ranking Miami 22nd in the league.
The Heat were the league's fourth-best team at shooting inside the arc, helped by all the layups from James and Wade, but were plagued by turnovers. Miami had the league's ninth-worst turnover rate, giving it away on 16.1 percent of its trips, and that's far too high for a team with star players who can create their shot so easily.
Again, all of this improved in the postseason, especially after Bosh returned and the Heat opened up the floor. Miami was a close third behind the Spurs and Thunder in both playoff offensive efficiency and playoff true shooting percentage; no other Eastern team was in the top eight in efficiency. More than a quarter of the Heat's playoff attempts were 3s, and their turnover rate dropped to near the league average.
Offseason Moves
During the offseason, Pat Riley and the Heat snatched up Ray Allen from their bitter rivals in Boston.
As I said, they figured it out. And in the offseason, Miami doubled down on its bet. The Heat let all the veteran backup centers go and didn't bother chasing any new ones this time around. Instead, Miami's offseason was all about its newfound, unguardable offensive identity. Check out these moves:
Traded a 2012 first-round pick to Philadelphia for a future first-rounder and the No. 45 pick; drafted Justin Hamilton: This was a heck of a trade. Miami chose to massage its luxury tax hit by using a first-rounder at some point down the road instead of picking 27th this year. The pick from Philly is top-14 protected each of the next three seasons and then turns into second-rounders in 2015 and 2016; most likely, it will be a pick in the late teens in 2013 that will replace the one the Heat owe the Cavs from LeBron's sign-and-trade.
The Heat moved down 18 spots and selected project center Justin Hamilton, who will play in Europe this season. Apparently Miami's lovefest with players of this ilk couldn't be completely cured in one go, but last season's playoffs came pretty close to extinguishing the malaise.
Signed Ray Allen for two years, $6.3 million: You want shooting? We've got your shooting right here. The Heat landed arguably the best shooter on the planet by using their taxpayer midlevel exception on Allen, and while it's possible he'll be around for only a year (he has a player option after this season), it should be one heck of a fun year. Or not, if you're an opposing defense: Would you like to stop LeBron's drive and leave Allen open for a corner 3, or concede the dunk?
This also speaks to one huge advantage the Heat will have going forward -- any veteran shooter looking for a ring is going to seriously consider coming to Miami at a discount. Allen could have taken a lot more money with other teams (like his previous one, for instance) but found a season of shooting wide-open 3s and lazing by the pool more palatable.
Signed Rashard Lewis for two years, veteran minimum: I wasn't crazy about this move simply because I'm not sure Lewis has anything left in the tank, but again you see the idea: Shootingshootingshootingshootingshooting. Lewis can play as a floor-spacing 4 much like he did in Orlando, except now he'll be shooting the shorter corner 3 instead of from the elbows and top of the key like he did with the Magic.
As with Allen, Lewis has a player option on this deal, so if he plays well (or if LeBron and Wade make it seem that way), he's likely to walk after one season.
Signed Josh Harrellson for one year, minimum: A nice pickup by the Heat after the Rockets waived him, Harrellson signed a non-guaranteed deal but is almost certain to make the roster as a rare floor-spacing center. The Heat could potentially use him as the backup 5 and keep Anthony out of the rotation entirely, relying on Harrellson and Bosh to provide a constant floor-spacing presence. The nice thing about Harrellson is he can rebound too, although his lack of mobility on defense may be problematic.
2012-13 Outlook
With more shooting to surround the Big Three, Miami is looking formidable for another NBA title run.
Watch out, world. I hesitate to call any team an "overwhelming favorite," because there are just too many things that can go sideways in an 82-game season. In a 30-team league the odds of any single team winning a title will almost always be lower than that of the field.
But if I were to drum up a scenario where I'd favor a single team over the field, this might be it. The Heat have the best player, and the best team, and they've figured out how to make it work, and all those things are important. But an even better reason to like Miami is the general state of the Eastern Conference.
I have Miami projected to finish a dozen games ahead of the next-closest team, and if the Heat are healthy in the playoffs it's hard to imagine any Eastern club giving them much of a fight. Even last season, the two times Boston played Miami with Bosh in the playoffs, the Celtics lost by 19 and 13; also, their best shooter last season now plays for the Heat.
As a result, the Heat have, by far, the best odds of any team of appearing in the NBA Finals. And you can't win the title until you get to the final round. Moreover, the playoffs tend to magnify most of Miami's advantages -- mainly, its top-heavy roster is a greater strength in the postseason because the starters play additional minutes.
Finally, having such a stress-free stroll through the regular season should allow Miami to have everyone relatively fresh for the playoffs. I'm sure there will be a hiccup or two along the way -- the point guard spot still looks iffy, with Chalmers as erratic as ever and Norris Cole a huge disappointment as a rookie, and it's not clear how much Mike Miller's worn-out body can give them -- but if the Heat's three stars make it to June healthy, they have a great chance at a repeat.
― moullet, Tuesday, 9 October 2012 13:30 (thirteen years ago)
sa spurs
Prediction: 60-22, 1st in Southwest Division, 1st in Western Conference
W-L: 50-16 (Pythagorean W-L: 51-15)Offensive Efficiency: 108.5 (1st)Defensive Efficiency: 100.6 (11th)Pace Factor: 95.1 (8th)Highest PER: Manu Ginobili (24.18)
It seems a bit odd to talk about a "window" closing when a team has had the best record in the conference two years running, ran off a 20-game winning streak last spring, and stands 48-11 in its past 59 games, including the playoffs. (If you're scoring at home, that's a 67-win pace.)
So consider this your annual reminder not to disregard the Spurs, even though you will until March rolls around and you realize they're in first place again. Despite recent setbacks, the Spurs are really, really good, and they aren't going anywhere in the immediate future.
Nonetheless, they do face some existential questions when looking further out. San Antonio's empire is built on three stars -- Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan -- who are now 30, 35 and 36, respectively. Ginobili's contract expires after the season, and a lot of the cheap help the Spurs found to support this group (Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, DeJuan Blair) also will hit the market next summer.
Fortunately, the Spurs are the best-run team in sports and have always been one step ahead of the game. They showed it twice last season, with a pair of moves likely to pry their window open just a little bit longer. The first sent George Hill to Indiana for the rights to Kawhi Leonard, shaving several million off their cap the next three years by resetting the clock on a rookie contract. Moreover, it gave the Spurs a shot at a legitimate star to fill in the gaps as their veteran trio ages -- Leonard showed signs of being Shawn Marion 2.0 as a rookie.
The second removed the one legitimate liability from their books, sending a first-round pick and Richard Jefferson to Golden State for Stephen Jackson at the trade deadline. Effectively, they removed an $11 million cap liability in 2013-14 for the cost of the 30th pick in the draft, in a range where the draft pick has often sold for $3 million. The mind still boggles that they snookered the Warriors so badly.
As a result, the Spurs' books going forward are as clean as anyone's. That's probably more valuable with respect to the luxury tax than it is with signing free agents, given the near-certainty of Ginobili re-signing and San Antonio's low profile as a free-agent destination. But given the age of the roster, it's worth noting that the Spurs have kept their options open and can bust out the dynamite pretty much any time they choose.
The Spurs also continue to invest in overseas prospects and have several players stashed overseas (keep an eye, especially, on Latvian forward Davis Bertans). This year they culled French wing Nando de Colo from that group to help them.
Instead, the issue here is less about "windows" and more about the particulars of the playoffs: The Spurs continue to crush in the regular season, but have lost postseason series with home-court advantage three times in four years. As the Spurs have shifted from a "dominant superstar" model behind Duncan to an "ensemble cast" model, the odds have tilted against them in the postseason. The reasons will be familiar to my long-term readers: A strong bench is less of an advantage in the playoffs, where the best players can stay on the court for 40 or even 45 minutes a game.
The young ones, can, anyway. Even against Oklahoma City, Duncan averaged just 34 minutes and Ginobili only 30. The star trio of Duncan-Ginobili-Parker was +27 for the series, but the Thunder outscored them by 54 points when at least one sat out. In particular, Duncan and Ginobili played only 124 minutes together -- less than half the series, and barely half the 228 minutes that Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were paired.
Meanwhile, Durant averaged 43 minutes in that series, including the entirety of Game 6. In short, the difference wasn't one of quality but of quantity -- the younger Thunder could play their best players longer. It's not clear how the Spurs can overcome that, and not just against Oklahoma City; the Lakers may present a similar problem.
Gregg Popovich will count on Manu Ginobili, but will he be able to play enough playoff minutes?
The Spurs were a modest 12-9 in late January, with Ginobili sidelined, and seemingly headed toward a middling playoff seed.
Then they went nuts. The Spurs went 38-7 over the final 45 games, including a couple of late-season games they were more or less trying to tank. They won 20 straight games at one point, including 10 playoff games, before suddenly careening off a cliff by losing four straight to the Thunder in the conference finals.
Parker had a big year at the point, Ginobili played extremely well when he returned, and Duncan looked as active and mobile as he'd been in years. But again, the underlying story was the skill of the Spurs' front office in filling in the pieces. Scrap-heap find Danny Green emerged as a reliable 3-point weapon and became a starter on the wing, Leonard was one of the league's best rookies, Boris Diaw played extremely well after Charlotte left him on the Spurs' doorstep, and Splitter quietly put up some fairly prolific numbers as the backup center.
There were disappointments if you looked hard enough -- first-round pick Cory Joseph didn't do much, 2011 first-rounder James Anderson failed to develop, backup point guard T.J. Ford had to retire because of spinal issues, and small forward Richard Jefferson struggled before the trade. But the Spurs still had the league's deepest rotation by the end of the year.
The big difference in San Antonio is that they've shifted to being a pure offensive team. The Spurs led the NBA in offensive efficiency, and in several shooing categories as well. San Antonio wasn't a good offensive rebounding team and drew fouls less often than the average team, but man, could these guys shoot. San Antonio was third in two-point shooting and led the league in 3-point shooting at 39.3 percent. It also never gave the ball away, posting the league's second-lowest turnover rate at just 14.2 percent of possessions.
Defensively, however, the Spurs were just average, and this was their undoing against the Thunder. San Antonio played a low-risk style that didn't foul or force turnovers and produced very low assist totals from its opponents, but the Spurs didn't have a genuine stopper on the wing (Leonard and Green are auditioning for the role) and Duncan was the only rim-protector.
Best Defensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12Team DRRSan Antonio 76.0Orlando 75.5Toronto 75.4Philadelphia 75.2Dallas 74.8League average 73.0
Although the result was average, there were a lot of extremes. Only the Lakers fouled less often than San Antonio, and only four teams forced turnovers more infrequently. Meanwhile, the Spurs were the league's best defensive rebounding team, grabbing 76.0 percent of opponent misses, and were the hardest team to get an assist against -- only 52.1 percent of opponent baskets came from an assist. Basically, they made you score one-on-one, they wouldn't foul you, they wouldn't pressure you, and if you missed they would get the rebound.
It all worked swimmingly until the Thunder came along, and if the Spurs had an elite wing defender one can see how this approach would have really paid dividends. While the Spurs didn't beat themselves, it just wasn't that hard to get a decent look against this team.
Boris Diaw and Tim Duncan re-signed, ensuring the Spurs veteran experience up front.
San Antonio kept the same group together, which was really the only viable strategy in its situation. We may see one more tweak around the edges, as DeJuan Blair may be traded for a future asset given that he's fallen in the frontcourt depth chart. Check out these moves:
Drafted Marcus Denmon: Can you say "Eurostash"? The Spurs got Denmon to agree to play in Europe after taking him 59th. He's a good shooter and rebounder, but he's an undersized 2 and his athleticism is a question mark. For now he'll join the Spurs' extensive European farm team, but he broke his foot and will be out several weeks for his European club.
Re-signed Tim Duncan for three years, $37.5 million: In the least surprising free-agency move of the summer, Duncan will stick around for at least two more years. Only $3.5 million of the third season is guaranteed, giving the two sides an out if Duncan wants to retire then. Also, Duncan has a no-trade clause in this deal, as if there were any possibility of the Spurs trading him.
Re-signed Danny Green for three years, $11 million: Fortunately for the Spurs, Green counted as an "early-Bird" free agent; otherwise they would have had to choose between Green and Diaw. As it was, they kept Green on a fair deal given his restricted status and locked up another productive piece inexpensively.
Re-signed Boris Diaw for two years, $9 million: Diaw's deal has a player option in the second season, which I'm not a big fan of on two-year deals: If he plays well, he's gone, and if he plays poorly they're stuck with him. Nonetheless, it allowed San Antonio to keep him by using its midlevel exception, and he functioned quite well in this system. No reasonable person should expect him to match his performance from late in the regular season, but his two-way play has value as long as he stays in reasonable shape.
Let James Anderson go, signed Nando de Colo for two years, $2.9 million: The Spurs dipped into their biannual exception to ink 2008 draftee de Colo, a wiry wing who can handle the ball and create but has some suspect shooting numbers for his size. He likely won't be a regular part of the rotation but instead will serve as a fifth wing and play when injuries hit.
Signed Derrick Brown, one year, minimum: This one slipped under the wire just before training camp; it's a non-guaranteed deal, but Brown played well for Charlotte last season and could help the Spurs. The tricky part is that he isn't a spot-up shooter and is a bit of a tweener, so there may not be an ideal role for him here.
Will the Spurs have reason to celebrate in the spring? Health as always will be the key.
Rumors of this team's demise continue to be greatly exaggerated. In the regular season in particular, it's hard to see how the Spurs will fall behind the pack much, if at all, given their three stars (and perhaps a fourth emerging one in Leonard) and how incredibly deep they are -- San Antonio's 13th man, Patty Mills, would be a rotation player on a lot of teams. Meanwhile, six Spurs -- Duncan, Ginobili, Parker, Leonard, Blair and Splitter -- all project to have a PER of 18 or better.
Combine that with what we already know -- that the front office isn't going to screw up, that coach Gregg Popovich manages his players' wear and tear as well as anyone, and that they had the West's best record with Ginobili playing half a season in 2011-12 -- and it becomes hard to pick anybody to finish ahead of this gang.
In the regular season, anyway.
It seems a lot of the similar problems face the Spurs when it comes to a playoff matchup against the Thunder or the Lakers, and that may prove their undoing. I'm much more comfortable picking them to have the conference's top seed than I am picking them to win it come June. But for the regular season? Sheesh. They've had the best regular-season record in the conference for two years running, and I'm banking on a three-peat.
indiana pacers
Prediction: 52-30, 1st in Central Division, 2nd in Eastern Conference
W-L: 42-24 (Pythagorean W-L: 42-24)Offensive efficiency: 103.5 (8th)Defensive efficiency: 100.4 (10th)Pace factor: 93.4 (19th)Highest PER: Roy Hibbert (19.35)
Well, here they are. After years of rebuilding and unloading bad contracts, the Pacers had their coming-out party in 2011-12 and look set to have a half-decade window of being a quasi-serious contender in the Eastern Conference. Meticulous cap management under Larry Bird and some shrewd drafting -- Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert were selected outside the lottery and Paul George 10th overall -- allowed the Pacers to rebuild. The final step came when they scored a rare free-agent coup with David West.
Bird stepped down over the summer, however. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss: Indy handed the reins back to Donnie Walsh, with former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard as a heavily involved No. 2. Meanwhile, the Pacers parted ways with Bird's right-hand man, David Morway.
The new front office inherits an enviable situation, as most of the hard work has been done. The Pacers identified a solid coach in Frank Vogel and seem locked into this starting five, assuming West re-signs, for the foreseeable future. With West the only player on the wrong side of 30, the Pacers don't figure to go away any time soon.
The question, instead, is whether they can make the additional leap to be something more than a solid second-round playoff team. The Pacers have five good players, but they don't have a true star, Hibbert's max contract notwithstanding. The best shot at one is George, but he and Granger are both natural small forwards. It seems inevitable that the Pacers will have to move Granger to get the best out of George.
The other move that could lift the Pacers another level would be upgrading the bench. An effort was made on that front in the offseason, although to what end is unclear. Indiana will be able to keep the starting five together and stay under the luxury tax or reasonably close -- an imperative in this market -- but the Pacers have to keep finding inexpensive role players to piece together the rest of the roster.
Drafting well would go a long way toward accomplishing that, and the draft was Pritchard's specialty in Portland. Nonetheless, the Pacers represent a typical study in the challenges facing small-market teams trying to take the final steps to be a champion. Nobody is flocking to Indiana in free agency or demanding a trade to this team, they can't go deep into the tax, and they'll be drafting in the 20s for the next few years.
Getting to this point took some wise drafting and a lot of patience, which was impressive. Getting further will take a double dose of smarts, luck and timing.
Roy Hibbert and Danny Granger could be celebrating more success if the Pacers keep rolling.
How is this possible? The Pacers were 28th in 2-point shooting percentage, ahead of only Cleveland and Charlotte, and somehow had a good offense anyway. This answers one of the big questions of last season, which is how an offense could look so ugly and still produce decent results.
It turns out, it looked ugly because it was ugly. There were a lot of forced shots and bad bricks, and much of it came either in straight isos or pick-and-rolls that the ball handler turned into isos. The indiscriminate gunning was bad enough with the starters, but it really went over the top any time Tyler Hansbrough checked in. Not surprisingly, the Pacers had the third-lowest assisted-basket rate in the league.
So where's the good news in all this? And how the heck did they finish eighth in offensive efficiency?
For starters, they got to the line a ton and made their freebies. While they had trouble finding the open man, when they did, they made the shot, as Indy shot a strong 36.8 percent on 3s -- albeit on very few attempts; again, finding the open man wasn't a strength. As a result, its true shooting percentage was almost exactly at the league average of 52.7.
The second part, as you may have figured out by now, is that Indy was a classic quantity team. Maybe the guards didn't find the open man, but they didn't throw the ball away either. And all those ugly isos at least produced a shot. The Pacers were well below the league average in turnover rate and well above it in offensive rebound rate. As a result, only five teams averaged more shots per possession than the Pacers.
Basically, they were good at every part of offense except 2-point shooting. That's still an important factor, but the Pacers were the rare team whose excellence on the rest of the spectrum let them thrive despite an abysmal shooting percentage inside the arc.
Still, one wonders how good they might be with a dynamic point guard. Shooters like George, Granger and West dot the perimeter, and Hibbert has a solid face-up game too. A guard who could drive and dish would make their lives a lot easier.
Defensively, the Pacers were solid overall, but their weakest link pointed an arrow at the frontcourt. Indiana fouled like crazy, particularly with the second unit, posting the league's fifth-worst opponent free throw rate. The Pacers also had a subpar defensive rebound rate and gave up more 3s than normal.
Usually all three of those are signs of an ineffective frontcourt rotation, and it's not a huge surprise to see Indy rank so low. While Hibbert and West were effective offensive players, they both had defensive limitations. West is a bit undersized and couldn't jump after offseason Achilles surgery, while Hibbert protects the rim but moves slowly. The second unit didn't help either, as undersized Lou Amundson struggled as the backup center.
This takes us to the other big story of the season. A lot of people don't realize how bad Indiana's bench was and how much it held the Pacers back, especially in the playoffs. Consider that the four-man pairing of West, George, Granger and Hibbert outscored opponents by 259 points. The rest of the time Indy was -41. Every bench player had a negative plus-minus, every starter had a positive plus-minus, and George Hill and Darren Collison, who swapped roles halfway through the season, were neutral.
This carried over to the playoffs, where the Pacers' starters outplayed Miami's, but the bench was so bad they lost the series anyway. Indy was plus-58 with its starting five on the court, but with at least one sub playing, it was minus-97 against a club not exactly renowned for its bench.
Pacers center Roy Hibbert re-signed, giving Indiana long-term stability in the middle.
Indiana kept its starting five intact and, based on the failures of the bench, went about rebuilding the second unit. In the end, I'm not sure the overall impact was a net positive, but it beat trying something that had been proven not to work. Check out these moves:
Let Amundson go, drafted Miles Plumlee and Orlando Johnson: Plumlee is a great athlete and leaper, but he might have been a reach in the first round. His anemic production at Duke suggests he'll be a one-dimensional rebounder. He does, however, add some genuine size to a frontcourt that needed it. Second-rounder Johnson was another need-based pick, as the Pacers look to fortify a wing rotation that disappointed last season.
Re-signed Roy Hibbert for four years, $56 million: The Pacers "matched" an offer sheet from Portland that was never actually signed by Hibbert, as Indy quickly offered him identical terms and he decided not to bother with the charade. The most important part, other than the money, is that it contains a player option for the fourth year, which means the Pacers and Hibbert could be doing this dance again three years from now. The Pacers probably overpaid, but they had no realistic alternative; Dwight Howard wasn't clamoring to come to Indiana.
Re-signed George Hill for five years, $40 million: This one was preordained when the Pacers traded their first-round pick to San Antonio for Hill a year ago, with the intent to re-sign him. While one can argue that the money was a bit rich for a restricted free agent who isn't a star, Hill had a productive first season in Indiana, and his ability to play both guard spots gives the team some roster flexibility. The biggest issue may be the fully guaranteed fifth year on the deal, which no other team could even offer Hill. That, combined with the dollars, seems like an overreach.
Traded Collison and Dahntay Jones to Dallas for a signed-and-traded Ian Mahinmi (four years, $16 million): This was the big question mark in Indy's summer, as the Pacers could have signed Mahinmi outright rather than trading two players for him. The contract also seemed a bit generous for a player of Mahinmi's modest talents. The one big positive is that the Pacers seem to have solved their backup center issue. Mahinmi will be a big upgrade on Amundson defensively, and unlike Amundson, he can make a shot from outside the charge circle.
The problem is more that the Pacers needlessly gave away two players to make it happen. Apparently they viewed Jones as a negative asset and wanted him gone badly enough that they were willing to throw in Collison. That seems a stretch given that Jones was fairly productive a year ago, but it was the logic. Meanwhile, the Pacers lost a productive point guard who was the lone positive for their struggling second unit -- all for a player they could have signed outright.
Signed Gerald Green for three years, $10.5 million: Indy filled its backup small forward spot by looking to cash in on Green's potential. He washed out earlier in his career, but last season, he destroyed the D-League like it was a video game and played quite well for New Jersey. Given the dollars, it was a reasonable risk on the Pacers' part that may pay big rewards. The nice part for Indy is that if Green thrives, it can play small lineups with Granger at the 4 much more frequently, something the team hardly ever did last season.
Let A.J. Price go, signed D.J. Augustin for one year, $3.5 million: The new backup point guard in Indy will be Augustin, which is the other puzzling part of the Collison deal. First, the positive: Augustin is a better passer than any guard on the Pacers, and he may be able to distribute the ball to Indy's shooters much more effectively. Unfortunately, Augustin hasn't made his own shots, either from outside or in the paint, and defensively he is a major liability. As a result, he is a downgrade from Collison in nearly every respect and costs $1.2 million more.
The Pacers signed him to only a one-year deal, which means even if Augustin plays well, they're hosed, because he can walk as a free agent and the Pacers won't have his Bird rights -- the most they can offer is a 20 percent raise to $4.2 million. Collison would have been a restricted free agent and much less of a flight risk.
Let Leandro Barbosa go, signed Sam Young and Sundiata Gaines to one-year, minimum deals: Barbosa was secretly awful last season, and the Pacers were wise to let him walk. I liked the moves they made to fill out their roster, as Young and Gaines were undervalued by their former teams. Neither can shoot, but the Pacers have enough shooting. It's likely one of these two will be the backup shooting guard, although Johnson and Lance Stephenson also figure in the picture. Gaines may get minutes at the point if Augustin struggles.
The continued emergence of Paul George is one key to the rise of Indiana.
The biggest advantage the Pacers have is that they play in the Eastern Conference, where it looks like they may land the No. 2 seed by default. With the former powers crumbling around them and nobody else to take the mantle, Indiana may find itself in the conference finals this spring.
This would be another tangible sign of progress, but if you're looking past this to the Pacers' chances of winning a conference title or the whole shebang, look at two factors: Paul George and the bench. George is the team's one chance to have a genuine star emerge, so if he can take that next step in his third pro season, it will make Indy's already potent starting five a real force -- even against the Miamis of the world.
With the rebuilt bench, the hope is that supplementing the frontcourt with Mahinmi and Plumlee and adding a passer in Augustin will offset some of the weaknesses that plagued this team last season. Adding Green helps too. I'm dubious that the changes will amount to an improvement, but give Indy credit for aggressively addressing a problem area.
The final issue, as always, is fortune. The Pacers had good luck with health last season, as Hill was the only rotation player to miss more than six games, and they received another stroke of good luck with opponents shooting only 72.9 percent from the line, well below the 75.2 percent league average. (Indy benefited by about a full game in the standings from this.)
They probably won't have quite as much buena suerte this season, but they probably won't need it either. In this conference, Indy looks like the biggest threat left to Miami's dominance.
― moullet, Tuesday, 9 October 2012 18:11 (thirteen years ago)
denver nuggets
Prediction: 59-23, 1st in Northwest, 2nd in Western Conference
W-L: 38-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 41-25)Offensive Efficiency: 106.5 (3rd)Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (19th)Pace Factor: 96.6 (2nd)Highest PER: Kenneth Faried (21.94)
Whooooosh!
Here come the Nuggets, ready or not, hell-bent on trying to prove you can win big without a superstar, and doing it with one of the most unique attacks in basketball: a turbo-paced, foul-drawing, defense-carving firestorm that needs only an elite shooter or two to be the best one in the game ... yes, even without a superstar.
Denver general manager Masai Ujiri has done an amazing job of rebuilding, turning the Carmelo Anthony-Chauncey Billups-Nene Nuggets into a 12-deep outfit that somehow has a payroll of just $63 million. Adding Andre Iguodala this summer to what was already the league's most potent open-court team makes the Nuggets scary interlopers in the presumed Thunder-Spurs-Lakers hierarchy in the West (more on that in a minute).
In the meantime, one can't help but be impressed with all the roster flexibility the Nuggets have maintained while building this juggernaut. They should be able to keep this group together for several years, if they choose, while staying under the luxury tax. But they also are in a position in which they could lump together multiple assets for a genuine star -- the Melo trade in reverse, if you will, except with better terms.
The defense was the biggest obstacle last season, but acquiring one of the league's best wing defenders in Iguodala will go a long way toward remedying that deficiency. So will the return of Wilson Chandler from a lost 2011-12 season, and another year of experience for the young frontcourt combo of Kosta Koufos and Kenneth Faried.
We need to talk more about these two. Koufos might be the single most underrated player in the league at this point (and, better yet, is signed for just $3 million for each of the next three seasons), while Faried's high-energy game made him one of the league's most impactful rookies. Each started for only half the season, but both should be fixtures going forward.
Denver also has some other potential sources of breakout years. Off the bench, tantalizing but frustrating shot-blockers Anthony Randolph and JaVale McGee offer intrigue; McGee, in particular, seemed like he was turning the corner at the end of last season. So do the Nuggets' past two first-rounders, Jordan Hamilton and Evan Fournier.
Charged by points Ty Lawson and Andre Miller, Denver's powerful offense pushed it to the 6-seed.
The big-picture view is a great start, a wobbly middle and an encouraging ending that saw the Nuggets take the Lakers to seven games in the first round of the playoffs. Look closer, though, and you'll see it more as an exercise in quick thinking that got Denver out of a couple of tight spots cap-wise. The Nuggets overpaid to keep two key players, Nene and Arron Afflalo, but both disappointed last season -- Nene by sitting out with minor injuries, Afflalo by shirking the defense that had made him a rotation player in the first place. Saddled with a five-year commitment to each that would take up a third of the salary cap, the Nuggets moved Nene at the trade deadline and Afflalo after the season (more on that below).
Meanwhile, the statistical story was an overpowering offense making up (usually) for an overly permissive defense. The Nuggets ranked third in offensive efficiency by relentlessly attacking the basket, finished second in the league in free throw rate and led the league by a wide margin in 2-point shooting percentage (see chart). Ty Lawson's breakneck speed was the catalyst, but Andre Miller also thrived in the up-tempo game, and in the half court, Danilo Gallinari was an aggressive foul magnet. (Commonly described as a long-range shooting specialist, Gallinari has not shot particularly well as a Nugget, but he has drawn fouls by the bushel.)
2-point FG% Leaders, 2011-12Team 2-pt FG%Denver 52.2Oklahoma City 50.9San Antonio 50.7Miami 49.6Phoenix 49.4
Once active bigs who can finish, such as Faried and Koufos and blazing wing Corey Brewer, got in the lineup, the Nuggets doubled down in this department. Al Harrington helped in the half court with a Fluke Rule season, and Afflalo had his best offensive season.
In the end, the only reason Denver wasn't the league's best offense was that it couldn't make 3s. The Nuggets hit only 33.3 percent from behind the arc, 24th best in the league, and the departed Afflalo was the only regular to make more than a third of his tries. This, obviously, is a lingering problem heading into 2012-13, and the hope is that Iguodala (39.4 percent last season but just 33.1 percent in his career) and improvement from Gallinari can provide enough floor spacing to continue the Nuggets' full-scale assault on the rim. As for the defense, the Nuggets simply must get better at this end. In particular, their 3-point defense was a complete disaster. Denver was last in both preventing 3-point attempts and forcing misses on them; opponents took more than a quarter of their shots from beyond the arc and shot a blistering 38.3 percent from there (see chart).
Worst 3-point Defenses, 2011-12Team Opp 3A/FGA Rank Opp 3-pt. % RankDenver .267 30 .383 30Miami .250 28 .363 26Golden State .236 21 .365 28L.A. Clippers .247 27 .365 27New York .236 22 .359 23League average .226 .349
To understand how far Denver was outside the norm here, consider that the difference between the Nuggets (571 3-pointers allowed) and No. 29 Miami was greater than the difference between 29th and fifth. A merely average 3-point defense would have saved Denver about two points per game and put it at the league average overall.
This was partly because the Nuggets liked to junk things up at times and play Harrington at center, which necessitated copious double-teaming in the paint. That won't be an option this season, nor should it be with three playable centers. But Denver also needs to tighten up its wing defense (where Iguodala should be a huge upgrade on Afflalo) and match up better in transition -- difficult, yes, when the Nuggets are racing upcourt and the guards are constantly penetrating, but also essential.
With Andre Iguodala, a top wing defender, in the fold, the Nuggets hope to shore up their defense.
Denver was involved in one blockbuster trade, but otherwise it was a fairly quiet offseason, as the Nuggets sought to build on an encouraging 2011-12.
Traded Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington and a 2014 first-rounder for Andre Iguodala: While one can argue the Nuggets shouldn't have helped the Lakers get Dwight Howard, it's easier to stomach by looking at how much they helped themselves. This was a great deal, allowing them to dump their two worst contracts in exchange for the shorter commitment to Iguodala while also upgrading their single most glaring weakness (wing defense) with a player whose open-court excellence should fit in perfectly.
Let Rudy Fernandez go, drafted Evan Fournier, Quincy Miller and Izzet Turkyilmaz: Fernandez was basically biding his time until he could go back to Spain, and in his place the Nuggets insert the Frenchman Fournier. He is unlikely to play much this year and replicates Denver's other weaknesses -- a perimeter marksman he ain't -- but his scoring skill will keep him in the league somewhere. As for Miller, he was a strong value play in the second round, but as with Fournier the payoff is likely down the road rather than immediate. Turkyilmaz is a project big who will stay overseas.
Signed Wilson Chandler for five years, $31 million: Technically this happened last spring, but we can talk about it now since it primarily affects the coming season. While the shortened first season and the non-guaranteed last effectively make this a three-year, $21 million deal, it's still a potential problem. Chandler played terribly when he came back from China last season, and the Nuggets have a logjam of athletic-but-erratic small forwards that they need to parlay into another skill player or two. He's a fine player and the contract isn't outrageous in a vacuum, but I'm not sure he's a great fit here. Ideally, he'll play well enough in the first half of the season for Denver to package him at midseason and get a piece that's more complementary to the existing nucleus.
Re-signed JaVale McGee for four years, $44 million: The Nuggets knew they'd be paying McGee when they traded Nene for him at the deadline, but they saved a few ducats and got a bit more youth and upside on the exchange. Denver is paying for potential here -- yes, McGee had a great PER last season, but his defensive stats are suspect (great shot-blocking, lots of opponent baskets in between) and his basketball IQ needs to make some serious progress to justify the contract. All that said, virtually any team in this situation would have done the same thing; 7-footers with McGee's physical gifts don't grow on trees.
Re-signed Andre Miller for three years, $14.6 million: Miller's decline last season was a bit worrying, but the Nuggets shielded themselves with a mostly non-guaranteed third season that could become a very valuable trade chip. (Fun fact: Among Koufos, Miller and Chandler, the Nuggets potentially have about $7 million in non-guaranteed money to put into trades in both 2015 and 2016. We're a couple of years out, but keep an eye on this.)
Used amnesty on Chris Andersen; signed Anthony Randolph for three years, $5 million: It was a bit surprising to see the Nuggets use the amnesty on Andersen, as he was pretty good when he played last season and there were no genuine savings because they were over the cap and under the tax. However, Andersen was the only amnesty-eligible player on whom it was at all plausible for them to use it, and they needed the roster spot more than they needed a fourth center. They probably were hoping another team would claim Andersen and save them a few bucks, but nobody did.
As for Randolph, he amounts to a bargain upside play. The hope is that he can provide Denver with a genuine backup 4 to replace Harrington while cashing in on his considerable potential in an up-tempo environment that should play to his strengths. Randolph has been an immensely frustrating player, but at this price and at this length, the Nuggets give themselves relatively little downside and a potentially huge upside.
Kenneth Faried and the running and gunning Nuggets are hoping to mine (title) gold in 2012-13.
Yes, that would be me leading the Nuggets' bandwagon again. (At least, if Kevin Pelton doesn't steal the reins.) Everybody is sleeping on this team, which is almost understandable given all the news out of L.A. But look at this roster: In the regular season in particular, I expect the Nuggets to be a hellish opponent with an explosive offense, enviable depth and one of the league's most improved defenses.
My main concern is the 3-point shooting. Iguodala is likely to regress from the 39.4 percent he shot from 3 last season, and nobody save Gallinari has any track record of shooting effectively from outside. Second-year pro Jordan Hamilton might be of some help here, particularly if Denver opts to play small with Gallinari at the 4 for long stretches.
But otherwise, it's tough to argue with an attack led by Lawson and Miller and in which all 10 rotation players can score. There's no traditional "go-to" guy, and that might cause a few problems with the crunch-time offense. But Gallinari had an All-Star caliber start to last season, and if he stays healthy, he could become more of a focal point this season.
Besides, any focus here is eyeballing the wrong side of the floor. Denver had an awesome offense in 2011-12 without 3-point shooting or a go-to guy, so apparently it's not a big deal. The bigger limitation is at the defensive end, which is why the Iguodala move is so exciting. Denver was only 19th in defensive efficiency last season, but getting one of the league's best defensive players should improve that ranking considerably. So, too, will development from the Nuggets' younger players, particularly the frontcourt combination of Faried and Koufos.
The Nuggets will challenge for the top seed in the West, but things get more problematic for this team in the postseason, in which a deep bench is of less value than raw star power. Nonetheless, if I were going to drop a few dollars in Vegas on a long shot to win the title, this would absolutely be my play. More likely, the Nuggets won't survive more than a round against the West's heavy hitters come playoff time. Nonetheless, Ujiri and company have done a fantastic job of building a young, cap-friendly, long-term contender from the ashes of the Melo trade. Ignore Denver at your peril.
boston celtics
Prediction: 48-34, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference
W-L: 39-27 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-26)Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (24th)Defensive Efficiency: 95.5 (2nd)Pace Factor: 92.6 (22nd)Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (20.47)
Well, they're not going away quietly. Much as we might be tempted to write off the aging Celtics, they've retooled their roster yet again and nobody else in the East save Miami seems particularly daunting. As a result, the Celtics stand as good a chance as anyone of standing toe-to-toe with the Heat in the conference finals, just as they did in their surprising trip to that round in the 2012 playoffs.
In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round. Nonetheless, there was no expectation Boston would be there at all at midseason. A rejuvenated Kevin Garnett and its usual suffocating defense got it closer than anyone imagined.
However, this will be their ceiling unless the Celtics get better on offense, where strong field goal percentages were more than offset by high turnover rates and a near-total aversion to offensive rebounding (more on that below). They should at least get more points from the bench this time around, after adding Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jared Sullinger, and bringing back Jeff Green. Last season's second unit was basically aiming for a scoreless tie; this one will get some points.
While we call the Celtics old because Garnett and Paul Pierce are a combined 70 years, they've done a solid job of moving some youth into the pipeline as well. Avery Bradley is only 21 and will get a full season as a starter after his insertion into the starting lineup keyed Boston's midseason turnaround in 2011-12. Boston also got a decade younger at shooting guard by replacing Allen with Lee. First-round picks Sullinger and Fab Melo should help round out the frontcourt after last year's rookie find, Greg Stiemsma, departed for Minnesota. And should they falter, a couple of veteran insurance policies (Chris Wilcox, Darko Milicic) remain in the fold.
Rajon Rondo and the C's couldn't withstand the Heat after pushing the East finals to seven games.
Boston's KG Era teetered on the brink of extinction for much of last season before a late charge behind -- what else -- suffocating defense saw them emerge as a conference finalist, with a big assist from Derrick Rose's knee ligaments. Garnett himself was much of the cause, as he struggled to move early in the season before finding his sea legs for the stretch run.
The Celtics had a few shifts along the way, most notably the one that saw Bradley take over as the starting shooting guard from Allen … a move that almost immediately took Boston's defense from merely good to downright scary. The Celtics also found a shot-blocker off the scrap heap in Stiemsma, and mixed and matched an assortment of veteran riff-raff around their top six players.
By the end, Boston was in a familiar spot: second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics led the NBA in field goal defense and 3-point defense, but they fouled more than the league average, which is why the Bulls had a better efficiency mark overall.
They were also particularly good at forcing opponents to screw up: The Celtics led the NBA in turnovers not from steals, at 8.7 percent of opponent possessions.
Worst Offensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12Team Off. RRBoston 19.7Golden State 22.9Dallas 23.4Charlotte 23.6Atlanta 23.9League average 27.0
The thing a lot of people didn't understand about Boston last season is how bad it was on offense. The Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency, and the core problem was how rarely they got second chances. Boston rebounded only 19.7 percent of its misses (see chart), which was the worst offensive rebound rate of all time. Yes, ever. With both big men usually spotting up on the perimeter, if not outright retreating on defense, the Celtics rarely had a player in position for a second shot. When they did, it was often the point guard. Between that and an above-average turnover rate, the Celtics averaged fewer shots per possession than any team in basketball, and you can't very well score if you don't shoot. They shot the ball just fine; in fact the Celtics were well above the league average in shooting and TS%. They just didn't generate nearly enough attempts.
Fewest "Shots"* Per 100 Poss., 2011-12Team Shots/100Boston 92.3Oklahoma City 94.4Miami 94.9New Orleans 95.0Toronto 95.0League average 96.6"Shots" = FGA + (FTA*0.44)
Notice in the chart that the second-worst team in this category, Oklahoma City, was still about as close to the league average as they were to the Celtics. While the Thunder and Heat were bad in this area too, the Celtics were magnitudes worse.
The good news in Boston's offensive malaise is that much of it was the result of the bench, not the core group. The Celtics got an astounding 4,315 minutes from players with single-digit PERs last season, and not one of them will be on the roster this season. If they can just replace the Pietruses, Hollinses and O'Neals of last season with halfway decent offensive players, they may improve quite a bit at this end.
After Boston let Ray Allen leave, Jason Terry swooped in to provide a boost in the backcourt.
Save for one orca-sized wart, the Celtics had themselves a fine offseason that should launch them right back into the Eastern Conference race. Even the one free-agent setback (Ray Allen's departure) was followed by an admirable recovery that arguably left them in better shape than if Allen had stayed:
Re-signed Jeff Green for four years, $36 million: Can they amnesty Green yet, or do they have to wait until the games start? Maybe the Celtics are just trying to keep us on our toes and prove they're capable of screwing up, too. Here's what we know: Green was a fungible player before he missed last season with a heart problem; guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level is something we might expect from a couple of the league's bumbling organizations, but certainly not this one.
I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer.
Re-signed Kevin Garnett for three years, $35 million: And now for the good news … Boston was able to keep their meal ticket, and more important, kept him at a salary just low enough that they could use their full midlevel exception and participate in sign-and-trades. (Both of these factors became hugely important as Boston's offseason progressed.) The Celtics even have a non-guaranteed third season on the deal, so if Garnett chooses to retire after two campaigns he'll leave Boston with a potentially enormous trade chip. (Garnett has a no-trade clause, but if he retires one presumes he won't mind.)
Let Greg Stiemsma and Jermaine O'Neal go, drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo: Boston's cap realities prevented them from keeping Stiemsma, especially once their entire midlevel exception went to Jason Terry. Once that happened, they had no means of matching Minnesota's offer sheet. Instead, they'll go young in the frontcourt with first-round picks Sullinger and Melo. Of the two, I like Sullinger better -- he has a Brandon Bass-type game but with a better knack on the glass, so if his back holds up and he stays in shape he could be very effective. Melo is more of a classic backup center; he'll block shots, but don't pass him the ball unless he's wide open for a dunk.
Sign-and-traded Sasha Pavlovic and two second-round picks to Portland, traded JaJaun Johnson, Sean Williams and E'Twaun Moore to Houston, received a sign-and-traded Courtney Lee for four years, $21 million: One way Boston made up for Ray Allen's loss was this sweet piece of salary cap machination, in which the non-guaranteed deals of Williams and Moore were pooled with other flotsam and parlayed into an ace 3-point shooter who can guard opposing wings. Lee should be a great fit in Boston's system and is young enough that the years aren't too great a risk, helping the Celtics re-arm for the final thrust of the KG Era. Boston also sent cash to the Blazers to pay Pavlovic's salary, and two second-round picks to compensate them for having to watch Pavlovic dribble.
Watched Ray Allen walk, signed Jason Terry for three years, $15.6 million: This was another solid move for the Celtics, as they got a shot-creating guard to give their second unit a much-needed shot in the arm. Terry isn't the pure shooter that Allen is, but his shot creation will be very helpful on a team that has struggled the past two seasons in this area.
Signed Jason Collins for one year, minimum: You're yawning now, but in the event the Celtics play the Lakers in the NBA Finals this is going to become very important. Collins is of limited use against quicker lineups but worth keeping around because of how amazingly well he defends big post-up centers.
Resigned Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox for one year, minimum: Now this one, you can yawn about. Dooling ended up retiring.
Signed Darko Milicic for one year, minimum: I'm convinced they did this just to torment The Sports Guy. I don't have a Swahili dictionary handy, but "Darko" may very well be the antonym of "ubuntu."
Can the remaining members of the Big Three era push the reshuffled Celtics into the title picture?
The big-picture view is that they'll defend, though perhaps not quite as well, and they'll struggle to score, but perhaps not quite as badly.
Defensively, Garnett's presence alone virtually guarantees that they'll be above average, but losing Stiemsma and adding two rookies to the frontcourt rotation will hurt the second unit defensively. And while Lee is an upgrade on Allen, Boston used a lot of all-glove, no-hit guys off the bench (Dooling, Pietrus, Pavlovic) last season that now are being replaced with more offense-minded players. If the Celtics are to point to one defensive positive, it's that the suffocating pressure of Bradley will be in the starting lineup … but Bradley may not be back for a while after offseason shoulder surgery.
The good news, however, is that the added offense, especially from Terry, should take some of the strain off Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. The former two players struggle to create easy looks in one-on-one situations, and while Rondo can be a dynamite set-up man, his own inability to score makes it hard to use him as the focal point.
Thus, the likes of Terry, Lee, Sullinger and Green will add more options for Boston offensively, particularly when the second unit comes in. (Boston's bench was pitiful offensively last season.) There isn't a pure point guard in the bunch and that may cause some strains, but Boston is likely to improve on its 24th-place standing of last season … particularly if some of the new guys try for offensive boards.
Overall, then, Boston is poised to end up right back where it was last season. With no daunting power in the East beyond Miami, the race for the second position in the conference is there for the taking. I have the Celtics projected in a tight pack with several other teams, so they could easily finish as low as sixth or seventh or as high as second. But given their recent track record, nobody will count them out in the playoffs regardless of where they're seeded.
― moullet, Wednesday, 10 October 2012 17:19 (thirteen years ago)
okc thunder
Prediction: 58-24, 2nd in Northwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference
W-L: 47-19 (Pythagorean W-L: 48-18)Offensive Efficiency: 107.1 (2nd)Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (9th)Pace Factor: 95.7 (6th)Highest PER: Kevin Durant (26.26)
So now that the inevitable has happened and the Thunder are the reigning Western Conference champions, it's time to move on to a different question: Can they keep the band together?
As the ultimate small-market team trying to do everything right to build and maintain a winner, the Thunder in some ways represent the first teal test for the league's collective bargaining agreement. So far they've checked every box, but now comes the really hard part. They've already maxed out Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and paid a rich extension to Serge Ibaka. But now the question becomes, How do they keep James Harden?
The real dilemma is a year down the road, when Harden hits restricted free agency, but it's by far the biggest obstacle facing the Thunder as a franchise. Harden is almost certainly a max player; if the Thunder don't give it to him, somebody else will. (Reference point: Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert got max offer sheets this past summer.)
Here's the problem: A max deal for Harden will give the Thunder something in the neighborhood of an $85 million payroll a year from now, when the league's more draconian luxury tax penalties kick in. Which would result in Oklahoma City cutting a check in the $25 million range to the league, depending on where next season's luxury tax level comes in (it's now at just over $70 million). That's mostly because three other players they drafted, Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, also make in excess of $12 million a season, but also because of one mistake -- a dubious, expensive extension for center Kendrick Perkins.
There are alternatives available, perhaps. They can use their amnesty clause to waive Perkins, get down closer to $75 million in payroll, and bypass most of the tax payments. Of course, they'd still be paying Perkins $110 million to not play for them, so the roster still would be very expensive. They can trade Harden or one of their other expensive players, although they're certain to get 50 cents a dollar in return. Or they can suck it up and pay through the nose for a year or two in a quest for a title.
The new CBA had two other unpleasant surprises for the Thunder. The first -- the "Rose rule" on extensions that gives bigger ones to superstar players -- helped put them in this mess. The value of Durant's extension rose by about $4 million per season because of this rule, which puts the Thunder $4 million deeper into the tax if they extend Harden. (It also put them just over the cap last summer, preventing them from bidding on the likes of Chauncey Billups in amnesty auctions.)
Wait, there's more: The new CBA incentivizes star players to become unrestricted free agents rather than sign extensions. It used to be that the Oklahoma Citys of the world had a nice weapon at their disposal to hang on to their stars -- just keep extending them a year before the contract expired, and they'd never become free agents.
But in an unintended consequence of owners' anger over the Carmelo Anthony saga and several similar events, the new CBA only allows a short extension, which means it's no longer worth it for players to extend when they can get a long-term deal a year later.
You know who that hurts? Not L.A. and New York, that's who. Just think: Durant will be a completely unrestricted free agent in 2016, and there's nothing the Thunder can do other than hope he wants to stay. Ditto for Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in 2017. Yes, that's far down the road, but it's coming.
In the meantime, they obviously have a heck of a team, and regardless of the Harden situation they should challenge for the championship this season. But the Thunder did everything right -- hitting home runs on four straight draft picks, avoiding bad contracts and patiently building a winner. If even they can't keep a good team together in a small market, it doesn't say great things about the CBA's alleged ability to let small markets compete for championships.
The Thunder claimed their first West title, but they couldn't withstand the Heat in the NBA Finals.
The Thunder violated every conventional notion of what a great offense should look like, and had a great offense anyway. They didn't have a pure point guard; in fact their point guard shot a lot and not particularly accurately. They had the league's lowest assist rate and nearly led the NBA in turnovers. They were last in pure point rating, and second to last in shot attempts per possession -- even the Bobcats outdid them here.
But once they got a shot away, holy hell were they good. The Thunder were second in 2-point shooting, first in foul shooting and 11th in 3-point shooting. They had the league's highest free throw rate, accentuating their skill at the line, and as a result led the league in both secondary percentage and true shooting percentage.
So despite the lack of flowing passing and the rampant turnovers they were second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, propelled almost entirely by the efforts of three players. Harden had a TS% of 66.0 and Durant 61.0%, supplying ridiculous efficiency for such high-volume players. Westbrook chimed in with more normal efficiency (a league-average 53.8 TS%) but at an insanely high volume, a framework that has earned him considerable criticism but worked splendidly in concert with the other two last season.
Lowest Assisted Basket Rate, 2011-12Team % of FG assistedOklahoma City 49.7Sacramento 51.0Indiana 52.2Washington 52.3Memphis 53.2League average 57.5
Secondary Percentage, 2011-12 LeadersTeam % of FG assistedOklahoma City 9.63Orlando 9.27New Jersey 9.11Minnesota 9.08New York 9.01League average 7.92
Worst Shot Attempt Disparity, 2011-12Team Shot* differential per 100 possessionsOklahoma City -3.97Boston -3.55L.A. Lakers -3.39Charlotte -2.69New York -2.66League average 0.00* "Shots" = FGA + (FTA *0.44)
This was not always the most attractive offense to watch, but again it was extremely effective, and was so despite the fact that several secondary players were pretty much inert.
Defensively, the Thunder were an interesting team as well, giving up a lot of points in the paint but also posting by far the league's highest shot-block rate, rejecting 9.58 percent of opponent offerings. Obviously Ibaka was the biggest factor here, but Durant also had an unusually high block rate for a wing player and several others contributed -- even without Ibaka, the Thunder out-blocked six other teams.
As a result, the Thunder were third in field goal defense and fourth in 2-point field goal defense. They were only ninth in efficiency, however, because of the same weakness that plagued them on offense: shots. The Thunder were poor at forcing turnovers and below average on the defensive glass, and as a result only the Lakers gave up more opponent shot attempts per possession.
The net result is a staggering disparity. The Thunder took 94.4 shots per 100 possessions and gave up 98.4. This was the league's worst shot attempt differential, and by all rights it should have consigned the Thunder to the lottery. But they were so efficient with their shots on offense, and forced so many misses on the shots at the defensive end, that they nearly won the championship anyway. One shudders to think how good they might be if they got this ratio somewhere close to parity.
Three of the four pieces are in place. Serge Ibaka became the latest OKC player to ink a big extension.
The Thunder had a quiet offseason, as per usual of late, mostly cementing their nucleus and tinkering around the edges. The biggest move, in fact, was the four-year deal they gave head coach Scott Brooks:
Signed Serge Ibaka to four year, $49 million extension: This deal includes unlikely incentives that could take the value up another 2 or 3 million, but the really interesting part is it values Ibaka a lot more going forward than the Thunder valued him looking backward. Ibaka was just another dude in their big man rotation last season; when the Thunder went small, they often played with Kendrick Perkins or Nick Collison as the long big rather than Ibaka.
That can't be the case going forward if Ibaka is going to justify this salary. He's a great shot-blocker but he has considerable work to do on the rest of his defensive game. Similarly, he's become an adept spot-up shooter and can finish at the rim, but he has no ball skills or post game to speak of. Even without those skills he's a good player and one who probably deserved more run than he got a last season (he played 27.2 minutes per game), and he certainly would have been paid by another team if the Thunder hadn't forked over this much cash. He just needs to continue developing.
Let Nazr Mohammed go, drafted Perry Jones and signed Hollis Thompson: Jones was an interesting upside play after a confounding college career in which he flashed intriguing talent but not consistent production. He may fit here, however, as a combo forward who can play alongside Durant and stretch the floor. Thompson was an undrafted free agent who got guaranteed money, with the Thunder pursuing cheap young help and eschewing signing veterans to short-term deals. Again, the cap situation looms here -- the idea is to see if they can get a very cheap player on the books for the two seasons after this one.
Signed Hasheem Thabeet for three years, $3.7 million: Continuing that theme & only about half of Thabeet's money is guaranteed, but the Thunder are taking a calculated risk on his ability to convert his shot-blocking talent into a real basketball player. If so, they have a very inexpensive backup 5 for the next three years. Ideally Cole Aldrich mans that position, but the Thunder may face a financial decision with him as well, as his option year for next season, at $3.2 million, starts getting very expensive in concert with the tax implications of a Harden extension.
Let Derek Fisher go: He wasn't needed with Eric Maynor returning from his knee injury, although somebody of Fisher's ilk will be a year from now. If it's touch and go whether the Thunder can keep Harden, you have to figure Maynor is as good as gone once he hits restricted free agency. The hope is that Reggie Jackson can grow into the role -- he bombed as a rookie last season, but he has talent -- and one shouldn't be surprised if the Thunder trade Maynor at midseason to extract some value before he ships out.
While a major decision looms, the Thunder are primed for another run at the title in 2012-13.
There's a good chance this team gets back to the NBA Finals. In fact, I'd argue there's a better chance of that than there is of the Thunder being the West's top seed when the playoffs start. Oklahoma City didn't have the best record last season despite another round of good fortune on the health front; while losing Maynor was a blow, its four stars missed four games between them and the only secondary player to miss significant time was Thabo Sefolosha.
And if any of the Thunder's stars miss much time, it's going to knock them back, because this is still one of the league's most top-heavy rosters. Outside their four stars, nobody else had a PER above 12 and two starters were in single digits. This matters less in the postseason with more rest between games and more minutes for the four stars, and as I noted in the Spurs section it was the major difference between the two teams in the playoffs.
But in the regular season, there are likely to be some bumps, and those bumps are likely to be enough to cost them the top seed in this conference. Which speaks to the secondary question facing the Thunder if they keep Harden: Can they fill out the rest of the roster with enough decent players to put them over the top?
Looking at the offseason moves and the focus on young upside guys with partial guarantees, it seems the Thunder has very limited resources to use on the back end of the roster. That won't matter if one or two of the younger guys become decent players and/or somebody wriggles free during the season that agrees to join them for the minimum. And still, it may not matter if Perkins becomes a reasonable facsimile of the player the Thunder thought they were getting two years ago. Nonetheless, it's a lingering problem, and one that may only worsen once Maynor goes.
With all that said, it's hard to see much empty in this glass. The Thunder have four All-Star-caliber talents in their early 20s, and if they can lock all four up for the long term it will take very little in the way of support to put them over the top. For that reason, I'd bet on a return engagement with the Heat this June ... even if they have to a win a series or two on the road to get there.
thanks for these/
― Spottie_Ottie_Dope, Thursday, 11 October 2012 19:54 (thirteen years ago)
are the rest of the team reviews comin?
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 11:48 (thirteen years ago)
yah
la lakers
Prediction: 53-29, first in Pacific Division, 4th in Western Conference
W-L: 41-25 (Pythagorean W-L: 37-29)Offensive Efficiency: 103.3 (10th)Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (13th)Pace Factor: 92.9 (20th)Highest PER: Kobe Bryant (21.95)
It's good to be the Lakers, as we learned once again when two more big-time players went out of their way to end up in forum blue and gold. Between financial advantages and the lure of L.A., the Lakers have options that most other teams simply don't, and to their credit, they continue to take maximum advantage of them.
At least, for now. Because the two avenues the Lakers used to lure in Steve Nash and Dwight Howard this summer may not necessarily be available to them going forward. Nash arrived in a sign-and-trade, which after this season will be verboten for luxury-tax-paying teams like the Lakers.
As for Howard, adding his salary to the others on board, as well as the other assorted flotsam L.A. took on in the trade, pushed the Lakers' payroll to $100 million. This season they can handle the tax hit, but going forward the more punitive tax is likely to result in a massive bill from the league. Even if the Lakers could stomach paying it from a strict profit-loss perspective, it's an open question whether they'd be willing to do it rather than stuff $50 million or so in their own pockets. Remember, the Lakers have cut salary wherever possible in recent seasons, and only reopened the financial floodgates when the opportunities to get Nash and Howard arose.
What makes this so interesting is that the Lakers can go in a number of directions very quickly. They have a $100 million payroll this season, yes, but they also have a $9.7 million payroll after 2013-14, when Nash is the only player on their books. Presumably Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant and others will re-sign between now and then, but for a team with an aging roster the Lakers have to like how flexible they remain. And remember, unlike virtually every other team, this one can virtually guarantee that its cap space can be spent on a superstar, given that stars flock to L.A. even when the team has no space at all.
To the Lakers' credit, they've taken advantage of their good fortune and made the most of it, staying involved in the Nash and Howard pursuits even when their odds looked poor and mostly avoiding the kind of catastrophic splurges that have afflicted other big-spending teams (cough, Knicks, cough).
What they haven't done well, alas, is draft. That's partly because they're always picking 28th and have had no pick at all in several seasons, but the end result is that they have the most top-heavy roster in basketball. The Lakers have four huge stars, but at spots five through 12 this team is difficult to discern from the Bobcats. In a related story, L.A. has no good young players and hasn't for some time. At some point, this could turn out to be a genuine problem.
But more on that later. The Lakers looked worn out the past two postseasons, and now are reborn, with Howard on hand to carry them into the post-Kobe era. Talent will always flock here, it seems; it's just an annual question of whether they can surround it with enough complementary players to mold a champion.
Kobe Bryant helped shoot the Lakers into the second round, where they were sent packing by OKC.
Last season's version of the Lakers wore its oldness on its sleeve at the defensive end, where Mike Brown instilled principles that made it fundamentally sound but not terribly threatening. How could it be, with such little athleticism on the perimeter?
Most notably, the Lakers were last in the NBA in forced turnovers (see chart), and it wasn't even a close last. Only 12 percent of opponent possessions ended with a turnover, and as a result the Lakers permitted more shots per possessions than any team in basketball -- even though they were a good rebounding team.
This is probably the biggest worry for the Lakers going forward; they added another guard who rarely forces miscues in Nash, and while Howard can protect the middle he's not going to do much to force turnovers on the perimeter. Similarly, the Lakers were already a strong rebounding team, so Howard won't remove more than a few second shots compared to Andrew Bynum.
In other words, the Lakers are likely to again look at a major shot deficit thanks to their inability to force turnovers. Where they have to make it up is by forcing those shots to miss, and on that item the Lakers graded out much better. In particular, they didn't foul. The Lakers had the league's lowest opponent free throw rate a season ago (see chart), and as a result only three teams permitted a lower true shooting percentage (TS%).
So the Lakers gave up a lot of shots, but most of them didn't go in. With Howard around, the latter trend should only be accentuated. Nonetheless, L.A.'s massive shot deficit a year ago left it just 13th in defensive efficiency; the hope is that Howard can lift the Lakers into the top 10, but he doesn't have a ton of help.
Lowest opponent free throw rate, 2011-12Team FTA/FGAL.A. Lakers .213San Antonio .222Chicago .236Denver .243Orlando .246League average .276
Lowest opponent turnover rate, 2011-12Team Pct. of poss. with TOL.A. Lakers 12.0San Antonio 13.7Chicago 14.2Denver 14.3Orlando 14.3League avg. 16.0
Instead, the Lakers' more likely path to world domination would be as an offensive juggernaut. The Lakers had a top-10 offense a year ago despite getting virtually nothing from two starters and the entire bench, working mostly in two-point increments behind Bryant's midrange post-ups and the work of Gasol and Bynum inside.
The Lakers also had a surprisingly high turnover rate for a good offensive team that didn't run much, largely because their secondary players were shockingly bad at taking care of the ball given their limited offensive roles. Guys who were just asked to spot up and make shots like Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Jordan Hill and Josh McRoberts somehow still had turnover rates far beyond the league average at their positions; as a result, L.A.'s team turnover rate ranked just 21st.
The Lakers also didn't take much advantage of the 3-point line; well, except Bryant, who shouldn't have been. L.A. was 26th in accuracy and 22nd in total 3-pointers, which is pretty pathetic given its post threats and the fact it had an elite wing scorer to command double-teams. Metta World Peace, Blake, Barnes and Fisher combined to make fewer than a third of their 3s, despite the fact they were basically wide open the entire season.
Obviously, Nash changes the equations on both the 3s and the turnovers considerably, with the threat of his deadly shot being a particularly notable change from the fingers-crossed approach with last season's point guards.
The Lakers swapped one All-Star center for another, bringing Dwight Howard in to man the middle.
As noted above, L.A. decided to finally take advantage of the money-printing concept known as the Lakers and spend its way back into contention.
Traded Josh McRoberts, Andrew Bynum, Christian Eyenga, a 2015 second-rounder and a protected 2017 first-rounder to Orlando for Dwight Howard, Earl Clark and Chris Duhon: Once this deal landed at its door it was a no-brainer for L.A. to follow through with it. The only question for the Lakers was whether the deal would cost them Gasol in addition to Bynum, and unbelievably it didn't. Better yet, the Lakers got protection on the draft picks, even the 2015 second-rounder (!), and gave up nothing of great importance aside from Bynum. As for Clark and Duhon, they're filler that came as a salary dump from Orlando, but Blake was bad enough a year ago that Duhon may win the backup point guard job from him.
Let Ramon Sessions go, traded first-round picks in 2013 and 2015 and second-round picks in 2013 and 2014 to Phoenix for Steve Nash (three years, $27 million) in a sign-and-trade: Again, a no-brainer deal for the Lakers once the opportunity arose. The first-round picks will almost certainly be in the late 20s, and the upgrade to a position of such weakness in recent seasons could not be more massive. There are concerns about Nash's age and durability, yes, but the Lakers were able to get him at a discounted price in addition to the discounted cost in trade assets. Given their win-now posture with Kobe at the end of his prime, this was another major coup.
Let Troy Murphy go, signed Antawn Jamison for one year, minimum: The Lakers went for the only player in captivity who defends worse than Murphy, but did so to get the benefit of Jamison's legitimate offensive spark. A flowing-type player who struggles a bit in iso systems (see his Cleveland tenure with LeBron and Shaq), Jamison may benefit from the Lakers' Princeton offense (one he used in Washington) if he becomes the go-to guy for the second unit. But if things devolve into isos for Kobe and the post players, he may struggle. You can't argue with the price, that's for sure.
Let Matt Barnes go, signed Jodie Meeks for two years, $3 million: Barnes was L.A.'s best sub a year ago and his loss will be felt, but Meeks is an important pickup because he addressed the lack of shooting that stymied the Lakers a year ago. Meeks also came at a very friendly price given his track record of success with the long ball; while he's limited in other areas, he should be a nice fit on this roster.
Drafted Darius Johnson-Odom and Robert Sacre: The Lakers had two late second-round picks and there's a good chance both will make the team. Keep an eye on Sacre, especially, a 7-footer who could give them some frontcourt minutes. Johnson-Odom is more the classic low-skill, end-of-the-bench energy guy, and may spend much of his time with their D-League club.
It will be Steve Nash's job to make sure all of the Lakers' talented pieces get their touches in 2012-13.
Like everyone else, I expect the Lakers to make the conference finals and contend for a championship. Unlike everyone else, I don't expect them to be particularly imposing in the regular season, for a number of reasons.
For starters, their situation is a bit like Miami's was two years ago -- they're going to need a bit of time to figure everything out. Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash in particular need to strike a balance between the hero-ball stuff that the Lakers have run the past few years and the pick-and-roll-centered attack that Nash operated. File away this stat from NBA.com's whiz-bang tool: The Suns' offensive efficiency with Nash on the court last season was 106.5, even with fairly pedestrian surrounding talent; the Lakers' with Bryant on the floor was 103.9. In other words, Nash has a much stronger case to be the offensive focal point than Bryant. I'm not sure that's how it will work out in reality.
Other small issues peck at L.A.'s projected win total. Howard had back surgery last spring and is still recovering; at best he'll be rusty, and he may even miss some time to start the year. Nash and Bryant are no spring chickens either, so the prudent course is going to be to keep their minutes in the low 30s and leave them fresh for the postseason.
All that means the Lakers' supporting cast has to play a lot of minutes, and that cast still isn't very good. Meeks answers the need for shooting and Jamison will provide some points (for both teams), but their best bench player from a year ago (Barnes) left, and they still have replacement-level or worse situations at backup point guard (Blake/Duhon) and backup small forward (likely Devin Ebanks). Their best sub at this point is probably Jordan Hill, but even he pales in comparison to the third big man on most rosters.
All those minutes count, and between that and what may be some early-season bumps while they figure things out, I don't expect the Lakers to challenge for the West's top seed.
What I do expect is for them to be fairly terrifying by playoff time. It's likely they'll add another player at the trade deadline, and that some random veteran will wash up on their shores via waivers. Come postseason, they'll be able to ramp up the minutes for their four stars and rely considerably less on the riffraff, and as with the Thunder that will make them far more potent in the playoffs than in the regular season.
That's cause for legitimate excitement in L.A., and I get it. But as far as the regular season goes, I'd temper my expectations a bit.
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:17 (thirteen years ago)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGHcOwUN54w
Prediction: 47-35, 2nd in Atlantic Division, 4th in Eastern Conference
W-L: 22-44 (Pythagorean W-L: 17-49)Offensive Efficiency: 99.7 (23rd)Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (29th)Pace Factor: 92.7 (21st)Highest PER: Deron Williams (20.34)
Welcome to a new era in the history of the Nets. For the first time, money is no longer an issue. And for the first time, this franchise is viewed as a destination rather than an unfortunate layover en route to someplace more habitable.
For both of those developments, credit the franchise's move from New Jersey to Brooklyn. While folks on the Jersey side rightly question why the lesser side of the Hudson has so much appeal, logistics dictate that the Nets can fare much better in their new digs. No longer stranded out in the suburbs, it's far more accessible for fans who work in Manhattan and, of equal importance, the night life in Manhattan is far more accessible to the players. (Although, to be fair, there's a perfectly fine Houlihan's on Route 17 near the Meadowlands.)
Brooklyn's status as a destination was hammered home over the summer by two decisions -- first, that of Deron Williams to stay with the Nets rather than bolt for his hometown Mavericks, and second, that of Dwight Howard to push hard for a trade to Brooklyn. While the latter didn't come to fruition, thanks largely to the scourge of base-year compensation rules (seriously, don't ask -- we'll be here all day), the Nets showed they can join teams like the Knicks, Heat and Lakers in showing up on nearly every prospective free agent's wish list.
Befitting their new status as a big-market magnet team, the Nets spent like drunken sailors. Why? Because they could. The Nets' strategy would have been somewhere between catastrophic and idiotic for about 25 of the league's 30 teams, but for Brooklyn it was an acceptable approach -- the Nets went over the cap, used every exception, re-signed their own players to inflated deals and ended up with an $82 million payroll for this season.
Next year the books show $85 million, and that's with only 11 players. It gets worse from there -- in 2015-16 they owe $76 million to just four players, and before you ask they've already used their amnesty clause on Travis Outlaw. Their players aren't worth that much, or even close to that much, but these moves enabled a quick fix.
As a result, a team that was horrible last season is likely to be the most improved squad in the league in 2012-13. There's another part of the puzzle here, too: If there was ever a time to overspend, this was it. The Nets absolutely, positively had to be relevant entering their new building in Brooklyn this fall, and they pulled it off. While doing so likely gave them a lower long-term ceiling, they get to kick off the Brooklyn era with a solid four-year run of likely playoff teams.
The Nets left a bitter aftertaste to their tenure in New Jersey, finishing 22-44 in their final season.
The Nets were hit by one bad injury, losing Brook Lopez for all but five games because of foot problems, but overall their injury problems weren't that bad.
Instead, the Nets had two severe problems that held them back. The first was how unbelievably bad their small forwards were for two-thirds of the season. I mean, coming off a season when Outlaw was their starter at the 3, you couldn't have imagined New Jersey being worse in that department in 2011-12.
And then the season started … and it was Shawne Williams, DeShawn Stevenson and Damion James manning that spot. Among players who played at least 500 minutes, Stevenson had the league's worst player efficiency rating (4.33) and Williams had the second worst (4.96). James was the "star" of the bunch at 6.17 before an injury ended his season.
I can't emphasize this enough: This was almost certainly the worst small forward combination any team has had in the history of basketball. It was so bad the Nets often just threw their hands up and used guys like Anthony Morrow or Sundiata Gaines as their 3.
That changed when the team brought in Gerald Green from the D-League and traded Mehmet Okur and its first-round pick for Gerald Wallace. (Side note: We shouldn't allow the line about the small forwards to detract from how ghastly awful Okur was in his 17-game stint.) With a real NBA small forward, the Nets went a respectable 11-10 after the All-Star break in games Williams played; prior to the break, that number was 10-24. Of course, they also went 1-10 in the games he missed.
But this takes us to the other big problem. Regardless of whether it was Williams, Wallace or somebody else in the lineup, the Nets' defense was just horrific. Deron Williams was as guilty as anyone else, in fact, often playing with sullen indifference. New Jersey (as the Nets were known at the time) ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, which is as bad as you can do in a league with the Bobcats in it.
New Jersey was either 28th or 29th in several sub-categories, including 2-point percentage, 3-point percentage, rebound rate, blocks and true shooting percentage (TS%). The initial instinct is to blame this on the absence of their center, but Lopez is actually terrible on defense -- if anything, the Nets probably benefited from having Shelden Williams and Johan Petro in his place (Okur, not so much).
Instead, it casts a harsh light on coach Avery Johnson. While his situation was less than ideal last season, the Nets have finished 21st and 29th in defense in his two seasons at the helm. Suffice it to say that won't be acceptable this time around.
Brooklyn opened with a bang, pairing Deron Williams and Joe Johnson in its star-studded backcourt.
The Nets weren't able to rope in Dwight Howard despite multiple close calls over the summer. Their best shot was right before the trade deadline, and it might have happened if not for Howard's momentary change of heart and surprise opt-in to another season on his contract.
Plan B was to use their money as a weapon and dive into the market headfirst, and man did they ever:
Traded Anthony Morrow, DeShawn Stevenson, Johan Petro, Jordan Williams and Jordan Farmar, a future first-round pick and a 2017 second-round pick to Atlanta for Joe Johnson: The exclamation point on their financial splurge this summer, the Nets basically handed Atlanta a get-out-of-jail-free card for Johnson's onerous deal -- one that still has four years and $89 million remaining on it -- by giving the Hawks a bunch of expiring contracts and even throwing in two picks for good measure. Most wonks expected Atlanta would have to pay somebody to take Johnson, so this was a bit of an overpay on the Nets' side. The fact the Nets were the ones giving up picks, including a lottery-protected first-rounder from Houston, drew some gasps around the league.
It got them a starting shooting guard, however, and one who should immediately provide some help for Williams at the offensive end. In fact, a lot of the off-ball plays the Nets ran for Williams last season likely will be run for Johnson instead.
Sent 2016 second-round pick to the Clippers for a signed-and-traded Reggie Evans (three years, $5 million): Making clever use of a small trade exception they had lying around, the Nets brought in Evans to be their backup center on a low-dollar contract. My major complaint with this deal isn't the use of the exception, it's the player. Evans isn't particularly good and shouldn't be a rotation player on a playoff team, but he will be counted on as Brooklyn's backup center.
Let Sundiata Gaines go, signed C.J. Watson for one year, minimum: Personally, I would have preferred just keeping the underrated Gaines, but the Nets were able to get Watson for the minimum and the difference between these two is pretty much po-tay-to, po-tah-to. One key advantage for Watson is that he's definitely better playing off the ball, which he may do a lot in small lineups given the other talent on this roster.
Re-signed Gerald Wallace for four years, $40 million: You knew the Nets would overpay Wallace after trading their lottery pick to Portland to get him at the trade deadline, and that's exactly what happened. He may deliver reasonable value in the first year or two, but the back end of this deal is likely to be ugly -- athleticism-dependent wings rarely have glorious runs through their early 30s. Between Wallace and Johnson in particular, the Nets have assumed some major risk three and four years down the road.
Re-signed Deron Williams for five years, $99 million: The Nets' most important free-agent goal was accomplished, as Williams stayed put after a dalliance with Dallas. This was part of the logic behind the reaches for Johnson and Wallace, as it showed Williams he'd have a real team if he stayed. Williams' deal itself is a fairly expensive one for a non-superstar, but it was basically the key to keeping the Nets relevant.
Re-signed Brook Lopez for four years, $60 million: Brooklyn gave Lopez the max, partly because the team told him that was what he'd get if he hung around on the sidelines waiting on a Howard deal. (He would have been signed-and-traded to Orlando and had to get the max to make the salaries match.) The weirdest part is that it appears the Nets gave him a fourth-year opt-out. If you're already maxing out a second-tier center, do you really needed to throw in the option year to close the deal?
Re-signed Kris Humphries for two years, $24 million: Once they'd done all the above and figured they were shooting money out the fire hose anyway, the Nets brought Humphries back at this inflated price. He quietly had a solid 2011-12, and at least the Nets limited the risk by making it only a two-year deal, but let's just say this will be a difficult contract to trade.
Let Gerald Green go, signed Mirza Teletovic for three years, $9.2 million: The Nets had one taxpayer midlevel to use and their options were to bring back Green -- a revelation on the wing last spring -- or go for the floor-spacing Bosnian Teletovic, who is coming off a strong season in Europe. I think they made the right call, as a floor-spacing 4 is much more of a need on this roster given the lack of other shooters. Besides, the Nets' frontcourt was (and still is) painfully thin. Based on his translated European stats, Teletovic will be worth the money.
Drafted Tyshawn Taylor, Tornike Shengelia and Ilkan Karaman. Given the Nets' lack of depth the first two here may actually need to play considerable minutes. Of the two I like Taylor much better; he was undervalued on draft day, has better shooting stats than his reputation and his defense could allow him to play immediately. Shengelia's translated Euroleague stats see him as a fringe player at best, and he may need some D-League seasoning. Karaman is an overseas stash pick who wasn't high on a lot of radars, but this is what you get with the 57th pick.
Let Damion James and Shelden Williams go, signed Josh Childress, Keith Bogans and Jerry Stackhouse: Start planning the parade.
The new-look Nets will open the Barclays Center with a reshuffled roster and renewed hopes.
The names are nice, but will they guard anybody? The Nets lazed through the season defensively last season, and the frontcourt in particular contains some huge question marks -- the Lopez-Humphries combo isn't exactly an imposing one, especially when it comes to help defense, and not much backs them up. The best of the bunch, Teletovic, is an offensive weapon but one who will struggle on D.
One can optimistically hope that Deron Williams will play harder now that his team has a chance, and certainly the wings have been upgraded with Johnson and Wallace. Nonetheless, between the soft frontcourt, lack of depth and Avery Johnson's questionable track record in getting his troops to commit at this end, there's a lot of reasons for doubt.
What isn't in doubt is that this team will score. There's no superstar here, but all five starters need to be guarded, Teletovic and MarShon Brooks provide some offensive punch off the bench, and the Nets weren't that bad on this end last season. Williams orchestrated some elite offenses in Utah with similar-caliber frontcourt talent, so one surmises that this could be a top-five offense with reasonable health.
If Brooklyn is a bottom-five defense again, alas, that won't matter. I suspect the Nets will be better than that, if only by a bit, and that they'll cruise into the playoffs as a result. But watch the defense carefully in the early part of the season, because there's an upside buried here: If the Nets get consistent stops and stay healthy, they could be very, very good.
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:18 (thirteen years ago)
memphis grizz
Contender or pretender?
That's the existential question about the Memphis Grizzlies heading into this season, one that likely defines whether a productive but expensive nucleus stays together for a multi-season run or undergoes further alterations.
The Griz seemed pointed toward the "contender" end of the spectrum after finishing one game from the conference finals despite missing high-scoring forward Rudy Gay in 2011, but last season they had their starting five intact and couldn't make it out of the first round. A knee injury to Zach Randolph was the major setback; that Memphis won 41 games playing mostly without him was impressive, but he never regained his All-Star form of the previous season.
HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Grizzlies' roster. Player Profiles Insider
The return of a healthy Randolph would obviously go a long way toward answering the question up top in the affirmative, but so too would an added dash of shooting and a more productive bench. Memphis' second-unit play, particularly at point guard, was a major negative last season, with Randolph's injury partly to blame: Two emergency early-season trades for frontcourt help netted Quincy Pondexter and Marreese Speights but cost them productive guard Greivis Vasquez, and the spot was an open sore the rest of the season.
That move wouldn't have been necessary except the Grizzlies had already lost the vastly underrated Darrell Arthur for the season to a torn Achilles. He and Randolph are back, and the backcourt saw a major upgrade as well: first-rounder Tony Wroten and the high-scoring Jerryd Bayless joined the fray, and Josh Selby looked good in summer league after a rocky rookie season. All this means the nightmare second unit stretches are likely a thing of the past.
But it also means that few excuses remain. Everybody's here and the roster holes are mostly filled, although shooting remains a major question mark. If Memphis is going to contend with this nucleus, now would be a good time to start. If not, it will be tough to justify being a luxury tax payer in this market.
Zach RandolphAndrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty ImagesWith Zach Randolph limited by a knee injury, the Grizzlies couldn't make it out of the first round.
Hoping to move up the Western Conference ladder, the Griz instead found themselves doing triage right out of the gate. Randolph tore his MCL in the fourth game, which Memphis lost by 40 to drop to 1-3, and Z-Bo went on to miss 38 games. With Arthur already out for the season, the Griz were naked at power forward.
The Griz arranged a sign-and-trade with Charlotte for Dante Cunningham when Arthur went down, and then a three-way swap with Philly and New Orleans for Speights to plug the hole left by Randolph. However, fixing that leak sprung another -- dealing Vasquez proved disastrous when Jeremy Pargo (PER 4.46) flamed out as Mike Conley's backup.
Fortunately the Grizzlies got continued improvement from Conley and Marc Gasol, with the latter making his first All-Star team, and steadily gained traction as the season went on. The Griz finished fourth in the West despite the early stumbles, but disappointed in the playoffs when they lost to the Clippers in seven games. Once again, the offense proved their undoing, scoring just 72 points in the finale.
W-L: 41-25 (Pythagorean W-L: 39-27)Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (21st)Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (7th)Pace Factor: 93.4 (18th)Highest PER: Marc Gasol (18.41)
In the big picture, Memphis had two defining trends: A defense that forced a gazillion turnovers, and an offense that couldn't make jump shots.
Let's start with the defense. The Grizzlies weren't particularly good at forcing misses, fouled more than the league average, and were slightly below average on the defensive glass. Despite that, they were a robust seventh in defensive efficiency.
The key? Turnovers. Waves of them. Memphis forced miscues on 18.2 percent of opponent possessions and stole the ball outright on 10.2 percent of them; both figures led the league by a comfortable margin. Most of the mayhem came from the starting backcourt. Among players with more than 1,000 minutes, Tony Allen was second in steals per minute and Conley fourth. The Griz had help: Mayo, Gay and Cunningham all ranked well above the league average for their position in steal rate, and even Randolph and Gasol were just a hair above. Their only low-steal guys were Speights and Pondexter.
Highest Opponent Turnover Rate, 2011-12Team Opp. TO RateMemphis 18.2New York 17.7Miami 17.6Boston 16.8Milwaukee 16.5League average 16.0
The surprise, perhaps, is that Memphis' defensive rebound rate didn't budge despite losing Randolph for half the season. Speights' rate nearly matched that of Randolph, and the others picked up the remaining slack.
Offensively, however, Memphis badly missed Randolph. Not on the glass, though: again, Memphis proved resilient here, finishing third in offensive rebound rate despite lacking one of the game's top offensive rebounders for much of the season.
Unfortunately, there were a LOT of shots for them to rebound. Memphis was 22nd in 2-point shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting, and despite taking a huge portion of their shots in the paint the Grizzlies were not particularly adept at drawing fouls.
Zooming in closer, the lack of floor spacing was a major problem. The Grizzlies were 29th in 3-point tries, taking only 15.7 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and we saw the effects in the playoffs as the Clippers sagged in the paint and gummed up their offense. Actually, we saw it in the regular season, too, as Memphis finished just 21st in offensive efficiency.
Biggest Shot Attempt Disparity, 2011-12Team Shot* differential per 100 possessionsMemphis 4.45Philadelphia 2.91Clippers 2.88Utah 2.64Milwaukee 2.00NBA avg. 0.00* "Shots" = FGA + (FTA *0.44)
Losing Randolph was a big reason the offense declined, but the bench was another. Mayo and Cunningham were the only reliable weapons on the second unit, with Mayo forced to double as the backup point guard after Pargo, Selby and Gilbert Arenas all failed brief trials. Pondexter played 1,002 minutes despite a PER of 9.35, and otherwise Memphis leaned on its top six healthy players for some of the league's heaviest minutes loads. Most notably, Gay finished third in the league in minutes and the lumbering Gasol was sixth overall and first among centers.
Stepping back, however, the Grizzlies again excelled in their "quantity" strategy. Thanks to all the turnovers they forced and their solid work on the glass, Memphis had the league's biggest differential in shot attempts (see chart). Had the Griz converted more of those shots into baskets, they would have been an elite team.
O.J. MayoAP Photo/LM OteroO.J. Mayo bid adieu to Memphis this summer, leaving the Grizzlies for a spot with the Mavericks.
Memphis' biggest move came off the court, with the news that longtime owner Michael Heisley would be selling the team to a group led by technology magnate Robert Pera.
On the floor, the Griz mostly focused on the sensible goals of improving the bench and adding more shooting:
Traded Dante Cunningham for Wayne Ellington: This was a trade made for need rather than talent. Cunningham is a better player than Ellington, but the Griz had a crowd at the 4 and precious little in the way of outside shooting. Ellington has struggled in other phases his entire career, but one thing he can certainly do is shoot it (he's a career 37.6 percent marksman).
Traded Jeremy Pargo, a 2014 second-round pick and cash to Cleveland for D.J. Kennedy: Here's what this really was: The Grizzlies paid the Cavaliers to take Pargo off their hands, but it cost them a draft pick and they have to pay part of Pargo's salary. This move reduces Memphis' luxury tax bill after Pargo bombed as the backup point guard last season, so it's effectively slightly ahead despite paying some cash to Cleveland. Kennedy had a non-guaranteed deal and was waived.
Let O.J. Mayo go, signed Jerryd Bayless for two years, $6.1 million: They couldn't keep Mayo given their tax situation, but the Grizzlies found a decent replacement. Forced to only use the taxpayer's midlevel exception, Memphis made a value play in Bayless. He shot 42.3 percent on 3s last season, but that's not a real indicator of his ability -- it only came on 88 attempts, and his career mark is just 35.0 percent. The real benefit is that Bayless can fill it up (20.0 points per 40 minutes last season), and is just 24 years old, so he could still get better. He'll take over the bench scoring role assumed by Mayo last season while backing up both guard spots. Alas, it may be a stopgap, as Bayless can opt out after the season.
Drafted Tony Wroten: Memphis' first-round pick was an excellent value -- a high-risk, high-reward play on one of the draft's most talented players. Wroten exacerbates a team-wide problem -- he can't shoot either -- but he is an elite athlete and huge for a point guard at 6-foot-6, 208 pounds. He may be able to play as the backup right away, and his ability to cross-match with Bayless should also prove very helpful. The hope is that he'll extend Memphis' turnover-causing mayhem into the second unit.
Re-signed Marreese Speights for two years, $8.7 million: Speights' career has leveled off since a promising start with Philadelphia, but he provided a much-needed Band-Aid when Randolph was hurt and his ability to play backup center is quite helpful. The second year is a player option, as it is with Bayless' deal, which is a bit of a disappointment. Basically, if they're good they'll leave, but if they're terrible they'll stay.
Re-signed Darrell Arthur for three years, $9.7 million: Arthur was one of the league's most underrated players prior to the Achilles injury that cost him last season, and the hope is that he can return as the third big man in the rotation. If so, he's a great value as an ace pick-and-roll defender on one end and a floor-spacing jump shooter on the other.
Re-signed Hamed Haddadi for two years, $2.7 million: A reasonable value for a third center who has been very productive in his limited minutes, Haddadi also provides Memphis' only true size aside from Gasol. The second year on this deal is a non-guaranteed year that could prove quite useful in trades.
Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesCan Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol help the Grizzlies get their bite back in 2012-13?
It's a bit overly dramatic to suggest that everything comes down to Randolph, but his ability to return to his 2010-11 level will have a huge impact on this team's future. Randolph went from a 22.97 PER and an All-Star berth that season to a more ordinary 17.96 last season. The Griz slumped to 21st in offensive efficiency as a result, and at that level it's basically impossible for them to be an elite team.
Optimists will point to the fact that Memphis' starting five has essentially never been healthy and starting at the same time. Everybody forgets this, but Allen didn't move into the starting lineup in 2011 until Rudy Gay was lost for the season. When Allen played more than 25 minutes with the other four, they were 8-2 with a plus-6.2 scoring margin. Last season they got a whole three games together, losing by three points apiece to San Antonio and Oklahoma City and beating Houston by 20, and then went 16-8 with a gimpy Randolph at the end.
This projection takes a pessimistic approach with Z-Bo, mainly because at 31 he's more likely to surprise on the negative side than the positive, but if his PER is closer to 21 than 17 then this team can push for a top-four seed or more. Reportedly he looked great in camp, however, and I've bumped up his projection slightly based on that. The shooting remains a major restraining factor on the offense -- Bayless is unlikely to shoot in the 40s on 3s again, Ellington is unlikely to make an impact (or even play much) and last season's best 3-point shooter, Mayo, is gone. So while they'll get more bench points and rely less on the Pondexters and Cunninghams of the world to soak up minutes, they're still basically striving to be league-average offensively.
Defensively, they're potentially a terror, especially if Z-Bo is moving well. Returning Arthur and adding Wroten should help significantly on this end, while the threat of Randolph on the block makes it easier to play Allen extended minutes. Memphis was seventh in defensive efficiency last season and could easily jump into the top five this season.
Nonetheless, on the contender vs. pretender question, the money seems safer on the pretender side unless Randolph re-emerges and another player -- Gay, perhaps -- can take an extra step forward at the offensive end.
Prediction: 50-32, 2nd in Southwest Division, 5th in Western Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:19 (thirteen years ago)
philly 76ers
This would be a great story if they hadn't sabotaged it along the way. The Sixers, with a classic no-stars team in a non-marquee northern market, somehow got themselves a big-time star, some nice young pieces and a deep roster with a strong coach. All of the pieces should be in place for this team to make a big run toward the East's elite.
Alas, they botched the rest of their offseason so badly that it won't happen. (More on that below.) Which is a shame, because Philly's story potentially offered a real counterweight for the league to offer the "other 25" teams -- the Sixers got a star center from Los Angeles instead of watching one of theirs go there, and had used a stretch of solid drafts (Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young weren't top 10 picks; Lou Williams and Lavoy Allen weren't even first-rounders) to build a strong nucleus in the post-Allen Iverson years.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the 76ers' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Unfortunately, the little-known story out of Philly was the takeover of the front office by the coach. With nominal general manager Rod Thorn having one foot out the door en route to retirement, Doug Collins effectively took over all of the decision-making. That led directly to some of the disastrous salary-cap management that preceded the trade for Andrew Bynum, which is the reason that Philly won't be contending for anything important this season. The announcement of Tony DiLeo's internal promotion to general manager only cemented that fact. This is now Collins' show from top to bottom.
Philly was an interesting case study for other reasons. Offensively, it stumbled into an interesting concept that other teams might wish to emulate: If you don't have post players, don't run post-ups. The Sixers basically didn't run any the entire season (I'm sure they ran one or two, but it was as rare as an Eric Snow 3-pointer), and it was a big reason they set a record for fewest turnovers in a season. That will change dramatically this season.
When Collins wasn't sabotaging himself with personnel moves, he had another strong go at it on the sidelines. He's engendered a fairly immediate turnaround of the Sixers into one of the league's elite defensive teams, a dramatic U-turn from the Eddie Jordan years, and while the offense was ridiculously conservative, it also kept them out of trouble. The biggest concern with Collins is burnout -- both for him and the players who have to listen to him every day -- and there already were mutterings that Andre Iguodala had heard enough. In that sense, perhaps having five new rotation players won't be such a bad thing.
Jrue HolidayJesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty ImagesAfter a hot start the Sixers slumped to the No. 8 seed, but they still booted the ailing Bulls in Round 1.Philly blasted out of the gate 18-7, with a spectacular point differential. We thought that was too good to be true, and it was: Philly went 13-23 in its next 36 games to fall out of the division lead and ended up barely making the playoffs.
Nonetheless, there were a lot of positives here. The Sixers had the scoring margin of a 45-win team; their 10-win differential between real and Expected Wins is the largest since I began tracking this stat. In comparison, the next closest team, the Knicks, were only 5.8 wins off their expected track.
In fact, Philly finished the season fifth in point differential. Partly this was because it was extremely fortunate health-wise: Spencer Hawes missed 29 games but every other key player played at least 60 of the 66 contests, and the health of the backcourt in particular avoided exposing what was a tenuous depth situation.
Offensively, as noted above, the Sixers were an extreme, low-risk outfit that mostly took long 2-pointers. This was partly because all of their big men were a lot more comfortable playing pick-and-pop than posting up or diving to the basket, but also because the perimeter players rarely had the green light to attack. Despite Philly's fearsome transition game, it was one of the league's slower-paced teams overall; in the half court, things slowed to a crawl.
Lowest Turnover Rate, 2011-12Team TO RatePhiladelphia 12.1San Antonio 14.2L.A. Clippers 14.4Milwaukee 14.6Golden State 14.6League average 15.3
As a result, the Sixers set two records: One for the fewest turnovers, and another for the lowest free throw rate. The charts show just how far outside the norm they were in these two phases, in particular with turnovers: The difference between Philly and No. 2 San Antonio was larger than the margin between No. 2 and No. 25.
The Sixers were also 27th in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, and that, combined with the lack of free throws, meant they had the league's worst secondary percentage. They were also a bad offensive rebounding team -- not a surprise, given that the bigs were always 20 feet from the basket -- and as a result they were just an average offensive team overall, despite the historic lack of turnovers.
Lowest Free Throw Rate, 2011-12Team FTA/FGAPhiladelphia .217Golden State .227Houston .235Dallas .246Milwaukee .250League average .276
Defensively, however, they did gangbusters. Philly cut off the 3-point line (only Chicago permitted fewer attempts) and held opponents to just 45.0 percent shooting on 2s. The Sixers also did strong work on the defensive glass, helped by the fact that two wing players (Iguodala and Evan Turner) posted epic defensive rebounding numbers for small forwards. Contrary to their reputation, the Sixers didn't force many turnovers; they were just a fundamentally solid team with a great wing stopper in Iguodala and no glaring weaknesses.
All that, plus Derrick Rose's knee injury, left the Sixers one game from a spot in the conference finals, but their lack of scoring and outside shooting came back to bite them in a winnable series against Boston.
Andrew BynumDavid Dow/NBAE/Getty ImagesPhilly made a splash by acquiring Andrew Bynum, but minor moves beforehand may slow its growth.
The trade for Bynum was a major coup, but the Sixers preceded that with a series of disastrous decisions that essentially undid all of the positives of the Bynum trade. They have an $80 million payroll, once you factor in the $16 million they're paying Elton Brand to play against them. Had there been an overarching plan rather than a series of one-off fire drills, they could have a better team, with a payroll between $60 million and $70 million.
Drafted Moe Harkless; traded the No. 45 pick and a future first to Miami for the No. 27 pick; draft Arnett Moultrie: I thought both of these picks were reaches, although Moultrie has enough size and athleticism that he could overcome his deficient ball skills and become a halfway decent big man, similar to what Lavoy Allen did last season.
But the Sixers traded a future first-round pick to Miami to move up 18 spots and grab Moultrie, and I'm still not sure why. It's a classic loan-shark trade, with an absolutely ginormous implied interest rate. The pick they obtained was No. 27 overall; the one they gave up is likely to be in the high teens a year later (it's top-14 protected each of the next three years), and in the meantime Miami still got to use Philly's second-rounder. Moultrie didn't solve any pressing roster need, either.
Re-signed Lavoy Allen for two years, $6 million: Here's the quiet, unrecognized, year-old stink bomb that was the catalyst for the disastrous moves below: Coming out of the lockout, Philly gave Allen, a second-round pick, a one-year deal with no team option for a second year. There was no reason to do this. No other second-round pick has a deal this player-friendly, and as the 50th overall pick, Allen had zero leverage.
So instead of having Allen at the second-year minimum for his sophomore season, he was a restricted free agent and the Sixers, being over the cap, had to dip into their midlevel exception to re-sign him. Like a butterfly flapping its wings to start a hurricane, Allen's deal led to the following ...
Amnestied Elton Brand, let Lou Williams go, signed Nick Young for one year, $5.6 million: This move was so bad on so many levels it's hard to know where to start. The Sixers got a sudden yen for Nick Young -- no, I don't know why either -- and decided they had to have him. But with half of their midlevel gone to Allen (see above), the only way to get Young was to create cap space.
And the only way to create cap space was to unload two of their most productive players from the previous season. Williams led the team in scoring and PER and is just 26, and ended up signing for reasonable money in Atlanta. Brand, though fading, was still quite useful, especially at the defensive end. Certainly, both players are better than Young by a substantial margin.
This actually cost the Sixers a bit of money rather than saving it, as they still owe Brand $16 million for this season after his amnesty auction only shaved $2.1 million of the price, and they still had to pay for a replacement. All so they could pay Young more money than Atlanta paid Williams.
Wait, it gets worse ...
Signed Kwame Brown for two years, $5.8 million: For reasons that aren't entirely clear, Philly has been obsessed with getting more size the past two years. The Sixers were the No. 3 defense and fifth in defensive rebound rate, but decided they needed to overpay for Kwame, a non-solution to a non-existent problem. He's not one of their 10 best players, but there's a worry he'll play anyway.
Let Jodie Meeks go, signed Royal Ivey for one year, minimum: Nobody has really commented on this, but the Sixers don't have a backup point guard this season and don't seem terribly troubled by the lack of one. The closest thing is Ivey, who is neither a backup nor a point guard; he is at best a fifth guard, and that's only on a really sunny day if the lighting is just right.
Traded nothing for Dorell Wright: Finally, some good news. Using their remaining cap space after the Brand amnesty, Philly took in Wright from Golden State. Hard to argue with the price, obviously. Technically it wasn't "nothing," as Philly gave up the rights to Edin Bavcic, a 2006 draftee who will never play in the league, but effectively Wright was free. He's a better player than people think, too. I'm not sure why he fell out of the Warriors' plans, but he can shoot 3s and is a decent defender.
Re-signed Spencer Hawes for two years, $13 million: This wasn't a bad price to pay for a starting center, especially because the Sixers didn't know at the time that they'd be getting Bynum. Although there's a fair amount of skepticism that Hawes can re-enact his outstanding play in the first month of last season, he's young enough to get better and he's a decent player even if you throw that month out.
Traded Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless and a future first-round pick for Jason Richardson and Andrew Bynum: This was the big move that should have put Philly in position to contend in the East, were it not for all of the other assorted silliness above. The Sixers parlayed a pretty good wing player into a dominant big man, and Richardson isn't dead weight, either.
Besides Iguodala, all they had to give up was Vucevic -- a quality backup center who had fallen out of the rotation by season's end -- and two late first-round draft picks (if you count Harkless as one of them). There's a risk here because Bynum is an unrestricted free agent after the season, but he's from the Philly area and has hinted that he'd like to stick around.
Andrew Bynum and Spencer HawesJesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty ImagesLed by their reshuffled frontcourt, the 76ers look to break into the top four in the top-heavy East.Philadelphia is going to have to change its stripes significantly with Bynum in the fold, as last season's conservative pass-pick-and-cut approach is replaced by force-feeding Bynum on the block and surrounding him with shooters. The Sixers have more shooting at least, as Young, Richardson and Wright can all bust the 3-pointer, and Holiday may get more spot-up chances out of double-teams on Bynum.
As a result, this will be a higher turnover outfit -- post-ups invariably lead to more turnovers, especially ones involving Bynum and double-teams -- but also one that will draw fouls and make 3-pointers. Basically, it will look a lot more like a normal NBA offense.
Defensively, however, the Sixers also will change, and probably for the worse. Iguodala was an elite wing defender and Philly has nobody to fill that void. Nick Young and Richardson are bad defenders, and Turner and Wright are merely adequate. Bynum will swat away some mistakes in the middle, but on balance I'd be surprised if this is a top-three defense again.
Digging deeper, more questions emerge. The Sixers have high hopes for Turner, but I don't, and I think they should trade him before others catch on to what a hugely negative offensive player he is. They seem remarkably cavalier about the lack of a backup point guard, and if they really go into the season with Ivey (or some other replacement-level backup), that's a massive drop-off from what Williams gave them last season. Finally, I didn't include minutes for Brown in this projection because I only have him rated as their fifth-best big man, but if he plays ahead of Allen that will take them down a peg, too.
Subjectively, one must also consider Collins' history of self-combusting in his third season in a city; the new blood may prove helpful here.
Overall, however, the offseason moves amounted to running in place. The Sixers will be a different team, but I'm not sure it will be a better one. If they still had Brand and Williams rather than Young, Wright and Brown, then I'd be singing a different tune. But this group looks like a mid-tier, one-and-done outfit.
Prediction: 46-36, 3rd in Atlantic Division, 5th in Eastern Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:20 (thirteen years ago)
la clippers
This is when we find out if the Clippers can escape their history and forge a different destiny. Entering the season the Clips are a true eye-of-the-beholder team, one where an observer can see the glass as overflowing or bone dry depending on the point of view.
Let's start with the positives. Blake Griffin is a force of nature that few mortals can stop, and he will be doubly scary when he starts figuring out more nuances to pair with his overwhelming athleticism. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the game and possibly the best leader too, an alpha dog who immediately took charge when he arrived in Los Angeles. Around those two stars are freakish athletes like Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan, shooters like Chauncey Billups, Willie Green and Caron Butler, creators like Jamal Crawford and Lamar Odom, and grinders like Matt Barnes and Ronny Turiaf.
What could go wrong?
This being the Clippers, the answer is "quite a bit."
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Clippers' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Donald Sterling still owns the team, if you haven't noticed, and he reminded everybody of that fact when general manager Neil Olshey was allowed to depart for Portland. The team opted, in Clipper style, to fill the position as inexpensively as possible, promoting little-known Gary Sacks and having him work with coach Vinny Del Negro -- no Nobel laureate himself -- to conduct offseason personnel moves.
And this is a hugely important year to be depending on cheap help, because Paul -- who is essentially this franchise's badge of legitimacy -- will be a free agent after the season. His decision to stay or go will depend on several factors, but the most prominent will be the franchise's outlook in the four- or five-year window for which he'd be re-signing.
There are other question marks, too. Del Negro is on the last year of his deal, and whoever is the coach as of July 1 will obviously have a major impact on Paul's decision. So, too, will the performance of the several new players the Clips added to the roster in the offseason, something we'll dissect further below.
But the biggest rain cloud is the lingering worry that somehow, some way, Sterling will figure out a means of screwing up the surest thing he's ever had. By all rights, a Paul-Griffin combo should have the Clippers contending for the next half-decade. The fact we're so unsure that will happen is because they've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory so many times before.
Blake GriffinJoe Murphy/NBAE via Getty ImagesIn their first season together, Chris Paul and Blake Grifffin steered the Clippers into the second round.
The Clippers started strong but were knocked sideways by a season-ending Achilles injury to Billups; with a piecemeal wing combination of Butler and Randy Foye trying to hold down the fort, they were exposed at both ends at the 2 and 3. Injuries were a persistent theme all year, actually -- Bledsoe missed 26 games, Mo Williams 14, and Paul and Griffin battled sore knees. Butler also broke his hand in the postseason but amazingly gutted it out.
What made these maladies particularly hurtful was that the Clippers had so little depth, except for at point guard, where they were laden with riches. Things improved, however, when the Clips added Nick Young (by giving up a second-round pick) and signed veteran castoffs Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans to round out the bench. While the latter two played poorly in the regular season they were effective in the playoffs, and in concert it meant the Clips were no longer playing the likes of Brian Cook, Ryan Gomes and other assorted sub-replacement level fodder.
After some midseason drama where Del Negro was reportedly a game away from getting the ax, L.A. recovered to win 13 of 15 down the stretch and knock off Memphis in the first round of the playoffs, before proving unready for the step up in quality against the Spurs.
W-L: 40-26 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-26)Offensive Efficiency: 105.2 (4th)Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (18th)Pace Factor: 91.8 (25th)Highest PER: Chris Paul (27.09)
Mainly, their success came at the offensive end. The Clips finished fourth in offensive efficiency, with possession a big reason behind their success. With Paul guiding the offense the Clippers rarely turned it over, sporting the league's third-lowest rate of miscues, and with Griffin and Jordan on the glass they were fourth in offensive rebound rate.
The Clips were only 12th in true shooting percentage but had an elite offense because they got so many shots away. (They were fifth in this category and percentage points out of third.) They were also a very effective 3-point team, shooting both often and accurately -- only four teams converted more triples. However, a lot of those 3s left in the summer when Foye, Young and Williams exited, so the return of Billups and the arrival of the newcomers will have to make them up.
The Clippers might have been a high TS% team, too, were it not for their woeful foul shooting. Griffin and Jordan both struggled mightily at the line, yielding an inexcusable 68.0 percent mark for the team that was the worst this side of Orlando.
Defensively, the Clippers plainly underachieved. Griffin and Jordan are very athletic but still learning all the nuances of defending the paint at this level, and on many nights it showed. The Clips didn't help by fouling with abandon; only one team permitted a higher opponent free throw rate.
Additionally, they gave up more 3s than all but four teams, and looking at the talent on the court it's not clear why this happened. Del Negro and his assistants tried in vain to fix this problem by frantically waving their hands from the bench at corner 3-point shooters, but it only served to highlight just how many open triples the Clips were giving up.
Worst Secondary Pct. Allowed, 2011-12Team Opp. Secondary Pct.L.A. Clippers 9.00Toronto 8.85Golden State 8.63Utah 8.59Denver 8.56
Between the 3s and the free throws, the Clippers were the league's worst secondary percentage defense last season (see chart). They were better than the league average defending 2-pointers, but gave up so many 3s and free throws that it still made them a subpar defense overall.
To their credit, the Clips tightened things up down the stretch and played fairly competent defense during the playoffs -- not great, but better. Nonetheless, their struggles at this end cast an unfavorable light on the coaching staff's ability to coax maximum results from this talented group.
Lamar OdomAP Photo/Damian DovarganesThe Clippers spent their summer upgrading their bench, including bringing Lamar Odom back to L.A.
The Clippers were without any draft picks after sending Minnesota's first-rounder to New Orleans for Paul last offseason and trading their other pick to Houston in this summer's Odom trade, but they kept plenty busy. In the wake of last season's struggles the Clippers worked hard to upgrade their bench, although the old mantra of "work smarter, not harder" might be apropos here.
Traded Mo Williams to Utah and rights to Fulkan Aldemir to Houston for Lamar Odom in a four-team deal: The Clips traded from their backcourt excess to fill a frontcourt need, so in that sense the deal made a lot of sense. But I think they're banking far too much on a return to the beach suddenly reviving Odom's ability to play basketball, and his poor conditioning on arrival at camp is a poor harbinger on that front. If he can provide even a halfway-decent facsimile of the player he was with the Lakers then this deal becomes a win for the Clippers, but otherwise there were better ways for them to leverage Williams' expiring contract.
Aldemir was the Clippers' late second-round pick who eventually landed in Houston in this deal. (Well, his rights did, anyway. Aldemir is still in Turkey and may never leave.)
Re-signed Chauncey Billups for one year, $4 million: A reasonable way to hedge the risk of Billups' return from a serious Achilles injury, as the Clippers signed him to a fairly low-dollar, definitely low-risk deal and will have his Bird Rights should he prove worth keeping around for longer. Given that he re-signed on a one-year deal, one piece of fine print to this deal is that Billups can veto any trade.
Let Nick Young go, signed Matt Barnes for one year, minimum: Barnes was quietly very effective for the Lakers last season (perhaps the first Laker to do so under the radar), and he should fit in nicely as a backup 3 who can fill in as a smallball 4 on occasion. While he's not a pure floor spacer, his off-ball cutting ability makes him an effective complement to star post players like Griffin. Given the price, it's hard not to like this deal.
Let Randy Foye go, signed Jamal Crawford for four years, $21 million: At first glance Crawford's deal seems outrageously bad, but the final two years are non-guaranteed and could prove a significant trade chip in 2014. In the meantime, he adds some shot creation for a bench that could really use it now that Williams and Young are gone. The bigger problem is that pairing him with Eric Bledsoe in that unit basically gives them two shooting guards (only one of whom can shoot) and zero point guards.
Signed and traded Reggie Evans to Brooklyn for right to swap 2016 second-rounders: The Clippers got virtually nothing out of this, but it was still more than they could have reasonably expected. If their pick is in the top 55 but behind Brooklyn's, they can swap second-rounders. Strike up the band. They also get a small trade exception out of it.
Let Kenyon Martin go, signed Ryan Hollins for one year, minimum: I'm not crazy about Hollins but as a minimum guy to fill out the frontcourt, you could do worse. His phenomenal inability to rebound should be less of an issue with Griffin playing next to him. Martin obviously would have been preferable, but he wanted more than the minimum and I doubt he would have proved worth it.
Used amnesty on Ryan Gomes, signed Grant Hill for one year, minimum: Using the amnesty on Gomes was a no-brainer since (A) he was their only realistic amnesty-eligible player, and (B) keeping him would have cost the Clippers millions in luxury tax. As for the Hill signing, you can't argue with the price, but I'd be wary of expecting too much -- Hill slipped quite a bit last season and doesn't space the floor. At 40 his best use is probably as a situational defensive ace off the bench.
Traded draft rights to Sofoklis Schortsanitis to Atlanta for a signed-and-traded Willie Green (three years, $4.2 million): The Clippers cleverly used a small leftover trade exception from the Paul deal to make this trade happen. The last two years are non-guaranteed, so it's a very inexpensive way for them to add a reserve who shot surprisingly well from distance last season.
Signed Ronny Turiaf for one year, minimum: Turiaf provides a capable backup center for as long as he can stay healthy, which in recent times has been measured in nanoseconds. Given the price, however, it's hard to argue with the gamble.
Los Angeles ClippersEvan Gole/NBAE/Getty ImagesAre the Clippers ready for big things or a big letdown in the second go-round for the Lob City crew?
The Clippers are in that interesting place where you can project a lot of different potential outcomes. Suppose Griffin and Paul stay healthy all season, Jordan and Griffin improve their defensive recognition, Odom is reborn, Billups fully recovers, Bledsoe keeps up his strong play from last year's playoffs, and Turiaf stays in one piece all year? One can easily see the Clippers pushing into the conference's upper crust in that scenario.
Doom-and-gloomers, alas, can paint an equal and opposite scenario, one where the young bigs fail to progress, Bledsoe can't buy a shot, Billups can't move, Odom's funk proves enduring, the wings are exposed nightly and Del Negro can't find answers on defense. Maybe throw in a puzzling move or two from The Donald and the doomsday view ends with Paul agitating for relocation at the trade deadline heading into his free-agent year.
Once again, we can only make one prediction here, so we'll focus on the most likely outcomes. It says here that Odom is likely to be better than a year ago, simply because he can't be worse, but that he'll still be a far cry from the player he was with the Lakers; I subjectively upped his performance from that in his player projection, but it still makes him a fairly ho-hum backup big.
In fact, there's a lot of ho-hum up and down the roster when you get past the two stars. Jordan has the best chance at being a third impact player, but his offensive limitations and defensive confusion likely limit him to a league-average starting center -- still a nice piece, yes, but not a game-changing one.
Similarly, the bench is deep in terms of useful players, but lacks anyone likely to make a high impact; Bledsoe, with his defensive havoc, offers the best chance. Small forward is also a concern, although the Clips gave themselves four dice rolls (Butler, Hill, Odom and Barnes) to find a solution.
All this might still add up to a contender if the Clippers had a defensive system that could make this group more than the sum of its parts, but there's little evidence that they can be better than league average at this end. Individually, Paul, Hill and Bledsoe are plus defenders and Jordan's shot-blocking has value, but there are a lot of weak links here.
Sum it up and they'll probably be good ... just not good enough, at least in this conference. Which takes us to the even bigger unknown: What such a finish might portend for CP's future plans.
Prediction: 47-35, 2nd in Pacific Division, 6th in Western Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:21 (thirteen years ago)
atlanta hawks
Their place in the standings might not shift much from the past few seasons, but in terms of mindset, the Hawks' franchise has undergone a full-scale reversal. Danny Ferry took over as general manager in June and immediately started remaking a roster and cap situation that was as committed to the status quo as any in basketball, leaving the Hawks' future potentially much brighter.
Under previous GM Rick Sund, the Hawks seemed locked into a strategy of preserving their seat at the Eastern Conference playoff table for as long as possible. An absurdly expensive contract for Joe Johnson and a less pilloried but still objectionable one for Marvin Williams kept them afloat in that regard, and effectively trading two first-round picks for Kirk Hinrich (probably the worst move of the previous regime) propped them up a bit longer.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Hawks' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Nonetheless, this house of cards was doomed to fall at some point. That it hadn't in either of the past two seasons owes largely to some brilliant work the previous administration did in finding inexpensive role players to fill out the bench. For a second straight season, Atlanta rolled out a mostly minimum-wage second unit that consistently kept it in games and occasionally increased its advantage.
But with Johnson's contract dollars escalating, ownership reluctant to pay luxury tax, and Josh Smith entering free agency in 2013 and pining for an exit, the handwriting was on the wall. The Hawks would be able to keep this nucleus together for one more year, and that would be it.
Enter Ferry, who has reworked this team's balance sheet in such a way that the Hawks are $40 million under next year's cap, give or take a few ducats. They likely won't be that far under come summer, since they intend to re-sign Smith (who now appears more amenable to doing so), but the Hawks have put themselves in position to nab a major free agent should one shake loose.
And the best part is that, if not, they really don't seem to be headed for a major dropoff from the past two seasons, even without Johnson. Atlanta now has the best of both worlds -- the likelihood of making the playoffs, combined with the hope that in the future it can be something more than a postseason speed bump for the league's elite. Ferry still needs to deliver on the second part of the equation, but he's off to a heck of a start.
Al HorfordAP Photo/Michael ConroyThe Hawks were without Al Horford for much of the season but still managed to make the playoffs.
It was a wildly successful season, considering the Hawks played nearly all of it without All-Star center Al Horford, who tore his pectoral muscle 11 games into the season and didn't return until Game 5 of the Boston series. And it was a surprising one, as the Hawks figured to be a mid-tier Eastern club even with Horford but instead had the fourth-best record in the conference.
The key was a wholesale improvement at the defensive end, where the Hawks moved up to sixth in defensive efficiency -- again, a feat made more impressive by the fact Horford missed most of the season. With a full season of Jeff Teague at the point rather than Mike Bibby, Atlanta's defense at the point of attack improved dramatically, and it had to resort to less cross-matching to hide Bibby. Additionally, Marvin Williams showed up healthier and more active, and the minimum-wage second unit of Willie Green, Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmanovic and Jannero Pargo performed surprisingly solid work.
W-L: 40-26 (Pythagorean W-L: 43-23)Offensive Efficiency: 102.4 (15th)Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (6th)Pace Factor: 92.5 (23rd)Highest PER: Josh Smith (21.14)
But mostly, the season was about Larry Drew's emergence as a coach. The team had a series of puzzling mail-ins in his first season at the helm and it didn't seem like he was in total control, but in 2011-12, the Hawks played hard every night and his schemes worked. Atlanta did nothing exceptionally well at the defensive end, but the Hawks were above average across the board. The only thing they did worse than league average was block shots, ironic given that Smith is one of the league's top shot-blockers.
Offensively, Drew also reworked Atlanta's attack to space the floor better. The Hawks led the NBA in corner 3-point attempts and finished fifth in 3-point shooting at 37 percent; Johnson in particular benefited from this approach, as he got much easier long-range looks than in past seasons.
The one thing they didn't do was rebound on the offensive end, ranking just 26th. But even without second shots, Atlanta finished a respectable 15th in offensive efficiency -- again, impressive given the absence of Horford and the lack of a superstar. Contrary to the Hawks' iso-heavy reputation, they also ranked sixth in the percentage of assisted baskets.
Lou WilliamsDaniel Shirey/US PresswireLou Williams will look to pick up the scoring slack for the Hawks with Joe Johnson out of the picture.
Ferry had scarcely gotten his keys to the office before he began a dramatic restructuring of the roster, one that leaves the Hawks notably smaller in the backcourt but massively more flexible in terms of the salary cap:
Traded Joe Johnson to the Nets for DeShawn Stevenson, Jordan Farmar, Jordan Williams, Anthony Morrow, Johan Petro and two draft picks: The most dramatic move came shortly after Ferry took over, doing the unthinkable by not only jettisoning the leaden contract of Johnson, but getting actual assets in return. Stevenson came via a sign-and-trade; technically it's a three-year deal but only the first year is guaranteed, at $2.2 million. After this season, he'll either be a trade asset or be waived. Petro is a nonfactor with one year left on his deal, but Morrow is genuinely useful -- an absolutely deadly shooter with an expiring contract.
The kicker is that the Hawks received two draft picks as well, as opposed to having to include one as a bribe to take Johnson's contract. The more important one is a lottery-protected first-rounder from Houston that they might not be able to exercise for a couple more years, but the Hawks also got a 2017 second-rounder from the Nets.
There's an obvious negative here -- Johnson was the Hawks' best offensive player, and we shouldn't gloss over that -- but he had four years and $89 million left on his deal, and seemed headed into his decline years. Unloading this contract was a minor miracle, especially for a team that can't afford the luxury tax.
Waived Jordan Farmar and Jordan Williams: Apparently Ferry still hates the name Jordan after that fight with MJ all those years ago. In reality, Farmar was waived as a courtesy so he could sign in Israel and is owed only $1.5 million. Williams' exit was more of a surprise, as the second-year pro showed signs of being a contributor and the Hawks are not awash in frontcourt depth.
Let Vladimir Radmanovic and Tracy McGrady go; traded cash to Chicago for Kyle Korver: The other hidden benefit of the Johnson deal was that the Hawks created a $5 million trade exception; conveniently enough, Korver makes exactly $5 million this season, and the Hawks were able to get him basically for free thanks to the belt-tightening in Chicago.
Let Kirk Hinrich go; signed Lou Williams for four years, $20 million. In the most underrated move of the Hawks' summer, Atlanta nabbed the Sixers' highest scorer and PER leader for just the midlevel exception. Williams has his faults, as he is more of a 2 in a 1's body and isn't much of a defender. Plus, fitting him in with Atlanta's other small guards might prove troublesome. But you'd have a hard time finding a less expensive scoring source than this, and Atlanta badly needed a perimeter creator without Johnson.
Traded Marvin Williams to Utah for Devin Harris: The icing on Ferry's salary-cap sundae was this deal. While Williams is a slightly better player than Harris, the deal dumped a $7.5 million obligation to Williams in 2013-14 and thus freed up even more space for Atlanta's 2013 offseason. The deal does leave a hole at small forward, with Korver the only natural 3 on the roster, but again, the Hawks are thinking long term here.
Let Willie Green go; drafted John Jenkins and Mike Scott: Jenkins might have been a reach late in the first round but his shooting ability should help flesh out the wing rotation. He also adds a bit more size to a very short guard group. Second-rounder Scott has some potential as a pick-and-pop 4 if he proves he can defend the position.
Re-signed Ivan Johnson for one year, $962,195. Johnson accepted his qualifying offer as a restricted free agent after a productive rookie season. The oddity in the fine print is that he'll be a restricted free agent again next year if the Hawks qualify him again. It's a good deal for Atlanta at this price, and a necessary one after it waived Jordan Williams.
Signed James Anderson and Damion James for one year, minimum: Anderson is an interesting signing because Ferry came from San Antonio, which had drafted Anderson in 2010. James was another player from that draft who washed out; the Hawks took a no-risk dice-roll on each heading into camp. The fact that both are wings with some size probably helped in persuading Atlanta to take the plunge, given the lack of such players on the rest of the roster.
HawksScott Cunningham/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe gap between the Hawks and the NBA's elite is still wide enough, but their future is much brighter.
Break down the numbers, and the surprising thing about these Hawks is that they don't look much worse than the version that preceded them ... even though they have a dramatically improved cap situation going forward. In particular, take a look at the backcourt, where Lou Williams and Harris replace Joe Johnson and Hinrich. While Williams isn't Johnson's equal as a two-way player, he had a better PER last season and is nearly half a decade younger, so he should provide considerable bang for Atlanta's buck. Harris, meanwhile, played off the ball for Dallas earlier in his career, and although he's small for a wing, he probably can handle this role in stretches. Offensively, he's vastly more dynamic than Hinrich, more than offsetting the defensive downgrade.
Now factor in that Horford will be back and that Zaza Pachulia returns to playing the backup 5 and that three guards with elite quickness are supported by some serious shooting (Morrow, Jenkins, Korver), and one can start getting genuinely excited about this team, especially at the offensive end.
Defensively, however, the Hawks are almost certain to take a step back. On paper, the starting wings are Morrow and Korver, leaving it unclear how the Hawks will prevent any good wing from hanging 30 on them. Additionally, Atlanta's likely closing backcourt of Williams and Teague has major size issues that could leave the team re-enacting its Bibby-era smoke-screen tactics.
One option is to bust out Drew's big lineup, which has Josh Smith on the wing and Horford at the 4, but this solution seems better suited to short stints given how it strains the team's frontcourt depth to its maximum limits (Johan Petro, anyone?).
As a result of those shortcomings, Atlanta still won't emerge into the league's upper crust. But this is a playoff team that is likely to have one of the league's top 10 offenses, with the added benefit of becoming much more in the offseason if the Hawks play their cards right.
Prediction: 45-37, 2nd in Southeast, tied for 6th in Eastern Conference
minnesota t'wolves
Welcome back to the NBA, Minnesota. After a half-decade in the darkness following the Kevin Garnett trade, the Wolves spent the first half of last season in playoff contention before injuries and woeful wing play dragged them to their final record of 26-40.
Nonetheless, it's hard to be pessimistic about their future. Kevin Love emerged as a superstar power forward, Nikola Pekovic quietly was one of the league's most improved players and Ricky Rubio looked at times like the second coming of Jason Kidd. With a clean cap situation and several other young players capable of emerging, time appears to be on their side.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Wolves' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Moreover, the mere fact that they're no longer committing minutes to lofty ideas such as "Darko Milicic can be the next great post center," "Wes Johnson is our star wing of the future" and "Michael Beasley needs more touches" means the Wolves will almost inevitably run more effective plays with better players in these roles.
Even if they'd done nothing in the offseason that would be true, but the Wolves went on to massively upgrade an open sore at the wing with Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Alexey Shved and Chase Budinger.
While questions persist about the management -- see the Milicic-Johnson-Beasley troika referenced above -- Minnesota's bigger dilemma is the unnecessary pickle it put itself in regarding Love's future. By not offering the maximum five-year extension and instead giving him an opt-out after the third year, the Wolves put pressure on themselves to have a contending team by the summer of 2014. By then, Love will be a year from free agency and could try to force his way out -- a movie we've seen countless times already the past few years and one that rarely ends happily for the team.
The good news is the next two seasons are under Minnesota's control. Play well, and everybody will be singing "Kumbaya."
Ricky Rubio Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireAfter an encouraging start, the Timberwolves finished in familiar fashion: out of the postseason field.
For a while, it seemed Minnesota would make an abrupt U-turn from a 17-win disaster straight into the playoffs. Between Love's eruption into superstardom, Rubio's arrival and the blossoming of Pekovic, Minnesota suddenly had enough talent to make up for the low-efficiency dead weight clogging a few rotation spots (see Milicic, Beasley and Johnson above) and contend in the vicious West.
The Wolves were 21-19 with a positive scoring margin after 40 games and were locked in a close battle at home against the Lakers, but Rubio tore his ACL late in the game and was lost for the season. Minnesota lost the game, Pekovic left the lineup soon after and the Wolves quickly careened toward the bottom of the standings, winning five games the rest of the season.
W-L: 26-40 (Pythagorean W-L: 27-39)Offensive Efficiency: 101.5 (18th)Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (21st)Pace Factor: 93.4 (18th)Highest PER: Kevin Love (25.41)
Rubio's impact in the backcourt was misunderstood to be an offensive one, but his poor shooting largely offset his brilliant passing, and the Wolves were just average offensively even with Love and Pekovic dominating in the paint. The real development came at the other end, where Rubio's ability to guard wings, take charges and hunt steals helped Minnesota -- the league's 27th-ranked defense in 2010-11 -- vault into the upper half of the league through 40 games.
That number, predictably, faded after Rubio's injury, and a few other dings at the same time exposed Minnesota's still-iffy depth, particularly on the wings. Despite Rubio's ball-hawking, it was a low-risk defense overall, one that was 29th in opponent turnover rate, 28th in steals and 27th in blocks. It worked because the Wolves took away the easy stuff, finishing fourth in secondary percentage against.
At the offensive end, 3-point shooting was the main concern. Love was their best outside shooter, but when defenses collapsed on him, nobody else could pick up the slack. In particular, starting perimeter players Luke Ridnour, Rubio and Johnson all struggled, going 32.2 percent, 34 percent and 31.4 percent, respectively.
Floor-spacing bigs Derrick Williams and Anthony Tolliver were huge disappointments as well. Tolliver made 24.8 percent of his 3s while playing his way out of the rotation. Williams, drafted second overall, flung jumpers indiscriminately and rarely found the net with them, whether on 3s or 2s.
This team's lifeblood was the free throw line, where it ranked seventh in the league in free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- percentage points out of fourth -- and converted 77.1 percent. Love again was the catalyst, but Rubio, Williams and Pekovic all were frequent visitors to the stripe.
Brandon RoyDavid Sherman/Getty ImagesThe Wolves spent their summer loading up on wings, including bringing Brandon Roy out of retirement.
Minnesota was one of the most active teams in the offseason, staring with its pursuit of restricted free agent Nicolas Batum. While that didn't work out, several other maneuvers bore fruit, which should lead to a much-improved roster this season.
Traded a first-round pick to Houston for Chase Budinger: The Wolves exchanged the No. 18 pick in return for one of the league's bargain contracts. Budinger makes less than $1 million but has been consistently productive and should be their top wing off the bench. He also played in Rick Adelman's system in Houston and fared well. The only downside is that Budinger is an unrestricted free agent after the season, thanks to his rare four-year rookie deal as a second-rounder, and could easily fly the coop.
Drafted Robbie Hummel: Nothing to see here, at least for now. A late second-round pick, Hummel will spend the season in Europe, and if his knees hold up, he eventually could be a contributor with his shooting and passing skills.
Waived Martell Webster; signed Brandon Roy for two years, $10.4 million: Waiving Webster and saving nearly $5 million was a common sense move, but the Wolves turned right around and spent the money on another oft-injured former Blazer with Seattle roots. Roy is an odd fit for this team on several levels -- he is not a floor-spacer and needs the ball in his hands, and he's not much of a defender.
But most importantly, he has no knee cartilage and was awful the last time he played. This move might have been defensible if the Timberwolves felt they were one player away, but given their more distant prospects of contending, I didn't get why they rolled the dice here rather than using the money on a better fit with fewer injury red flags.
Let Anthony Tolliver leave; traded Wayne Ellington for Dante Cunningham: Tolliver was a useful player two seasons ago but had a very disappointing 2011-12 campaign. In his place moves Cunningham, who is limited offensively but an active defender who can be helpful if he isn't caught in strength matchups. Given how little the Wolves were getting from Ellington, it's a solid upgrade.
Used amnesty on Darko Milicic; signed Greg Stiemsma for two years, $5.2 million: Better late than never. The Wolves used their amnesty on Milicic to make way for their other free agents, and then when their cap space was gone, they used their mini-midlevel on Stiemsma. It was a rare win in restricted free agency, as Minnesota realized Boston had painted itself into a corner with the luxury tax apron and couldn't match. Stiemsma's cap-friendly deal is guaranteed for only the first year, and he'll provide much-needed shot-blocking for a team that was among the league's worst in this category last season.
Traded Brad Miller and two second-round picks to New Orleans: This was a great deal for the Hornets, not so much for the Wolves. Minnesota shed Miller's $848,000 guarantee, which it needed to do to create enough cap space for other deals, but at a cost of giving the Hornets a pair of second-round picks, one from Brooklyn in 2013 and its own in 2016. The Hornets technically gave a second-round pick back, but it is top-55 protected and unlikely to ever be put to use.
Signed Alexey Shved for three years, $9 million: I really liked this move, which should provide another upgrade at the wings and gives the Wolves yet another solid ball handler in the backcourt. (It seemingly portends a trade of Luke Ridnour at some point, as well.) Shved's translated European stats rate him as an immediate contributor, and he's young enough to still get better.
Let Michael Beasley leave; signed Andrei Kirilenko for two years, $20 million: Another huge upgrade on the wings, as Beasley's lovefest with long 2-point jumpers needlessly saddled the offense with empty trips. In his stead is Kirilenko, who spent last season in Russia and had the highest translated PER of any player in the Euroleague. He's a known quantity from his time in Utah, and while the money is rich on a per-year basis, the two-year deal limits Minnesota's risk. Better yet, AK-47 can play a lot of small-ball 4 and probably is even better there than at the 3.
Traded Wes Johnson and a first-round pick to Phoenix; received Jerome Dyson from New Orleans: As part of a three-way trade with the Hornets and Suns, the Wolves dumped the final guaranteed year of Johnson's contact by paying the Suns a first-round pick. Which is pretty bad when you think about it -- Johnson was the fourth overall pick in 2010 and yet was so bad the Wolves had to pay somebody to take him off their hands just two years later. The pick is top-14 protected, at least. Dyson had a nonguaranteed deal and was waived on arrival.
Signed Lou Amundson for one year, minimum: This deal filled the need for an "energy" fifth big to fill out the frontcourt depth. Amundson has his weaknesses, but he can be effective in short stints if he's not matched up against size, especially in an up-tempo game.
Kevin Love David Sherman/Getty ImagesCan Kevin Love and the Wolves finally break into the playoffs? Their 2012-13 could be a balancing act.
The biggest reason for optimism in Minnesota has less to do with Rubio and Love, and more to do with Darko and Johnson.
Here's why: If the Wolves can just replace all the crappy players they used last season with average ones, they should have a really good team. It's pretty amazing how many minutes this team gave players who had no business being in a rotation, let alone prominently figuring in one. Milicic started 23 games; Johnson, unbelievably, started 64.
That's not all. Go down the list, and you'll see Tolliver, Milicic, Johnson, Ellington and Webster all had single-digit PERs, and those five players played nearly 5,000 combined minutes. Beasley and Williams killed the Wolves with their shot selection, but they played another 2,500. That's 7,500 minutes devoted to nonperformers. To put that in perspective, it nearly quadruples Love's playing time.
This season the Wolves are replacing a lot of that performance with real basketball players: Kirilenko, Budinger, Shved, Cunningham and Stiemsma all should be improvements on the players they replaced. The new wing players provide particularly massive upgrades, while also allowing the Wolves to play a more traditional backcourt. (They started two point guards for most of last season because the wings were so bad.)
While I don't have high expectations for Roy, anything he gives them will be gravy. And then there's Williams, who one has to think will show more shot discipline (and, hopefully, accuracy) in his sophomore season.
A few negatives linger. Pekovic had the biggest one-year PER jump in the history of my database, and we can't just bank on him repeating that effort. Rubio will be out for the first two months or so and probably won't hit the ground running when he returns. Bigger picture, Adelman doesn't have a history of coaching elite defensive teams, so if this team is going to win big, it will do it offensively. Yet the outside shooting still looks like a bit of a weakness.
Finally, this team's management has built up quite a file of head-scratching moves; despite a largely solid summer, Roy might be the latest for that manila folder. One can't just assume it will be the last.
Nonetheless, Minnesota was a playoff team before Rubio got hurt, and it has made major upgrades at several positions that were negatives last season. Even with Rubio diminished, chances are the Timberwolves will bust through into the West's top eight.
Prediction: 45-37, 3rd in Northwest, 7th in Western Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:22 (thirteen years ago)
ny knicks
Does anyone know what the Knicks are right now? Including the Knicks?
Are they a defensive-minded team anchored by a dominant center? A free-wheeling, quick-gunning team in the mold of recent Nuggets teams? (They now employ four former Nuggets who will be in their rotation.) A classic pick-and-roll team that runs everything through its dynamic point guard?
Actually, scratch that last one. The Knicks' curious decision to jettison Jeremy Lin will loom over this season whether they like it or not, especially if Lin plays well in Houston. (As he's likely to.)
That would be fine if this was part of some overarching strategy, but the biggest dilemma for the Knicks heading into this season is one of identity.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Knicks' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Are they going all-in for a title? Not really, looking at their starting backcourt.
Are they in spend-at-all-costs mode? They were, right up to the point where they let Lin and Landry Fields walk in restricted free agency. That's right, the free-spending, bigger-market-than-anybody-else Knicks gave up not one, but TWO restricted free agents this summer.
Are they building around defense? That was their strength last season, but they have one good defensive player in their starting five (arguably two, depending on whom they start at shooting guard), and their two highest-paid players are sieves.
About the best coherent statement one can make is that the Knicks are built around the idea that Carmelo Anthony is a superstar. That's the only way to make sense of letting Lin go while spending all the money they could find on role players who can defend and shoot. Anthony, alas, hasn't performed to that caliber, as the Knicks' record since acquiring him (51-44) makes clear, but it appears New York is committed to this idea for a while longer. As New York is to the notion that Amare Stoudemire is still an elite player and one who should be starting alongside Anthony. However, the two have rarely succeeded on the court together, with Anthony in particular playing far better as a 4 sans Stoudemire. (One wonders why the Knicks can't simply bring Stoudemire off the bench.)
Thus, the biggest paradox of all: The two big beliefs upon which the Knicks are built actually collide with one another. Anthony is possibly a superstar as a 4 -- his data is good enough from that position that we can't rule it out. But he can't play there if Stoudemire is.
KnicksJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesA long and winding first season for the Knicks' star trio ended in familiar fashion: a first-round exit.
Well, they kept things interesting. New York's season went in three phases: early disaster, Linsanity and the Woodson era. The Knicks began the season with a makeshift bench and a game plan of playing through Anthony and Stoudemire, one that proved deficient when Stoudemire showed staggering decline from his previous season. Making matters worse was the total collapse by point guard Toney Douglas, leaving a gaping hole at that position as the Knicks limped to an 8-15 start.
Here's where a lot of credit has to go to New York's management -- through a number of shrewd (and, believe it or not, inexpensive) moves, the Knicks were able to build out a very respectable bench. Rookie Iman Shumpert showed he was a capable defender, scrap-heap pickup Steve Novak proved both an elite 3-point marksman and a less flammable defender than expected, and post-China import J.R. Smith and amnesty casualty Baron Davis stabilized a creaking rotation.
And a little-known waiver-wire pickup named Jeremy Lin started getting minutes. Which takes us to the second part: Linsanity. I assume you're all familiar with the story by now, as Lin spent a few weeks carving up opposing defenses in Mike D'Antoni's point guard-friendly attack while Melo was injured. When Anthony came back, alas, the good times quickly stopped rolling, and it cost D'Antoni his job.
W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 42-24)Offensive Efficiency: 101.4 (19th)Defensive Efficiency: 98.4 (5th)Pace Factor: 95.7 (5th)Highest PER: Carmelo Anthony (21.15)
Enter Mike Woodson, who remade the Knicks into a different kind of team, one dependent on Anthony, still, but more defensive-minded and, thanks to the front office's work, deeper. Lin checked out with a knee injury, and New York thrived with Anthony playing the 4 while Stoudemire was hurt. But when Stoudemire came back, the Knicks reverted to their old ways and were summarily dismissed in the playoffs by Miami.
That series also featured two bad injuries for New York that will affect this season: Shumpert and Davis both blew out their knees. Shumpert might return later in the season, but Davis is highly unlikely to play in 2012-13, if ever again.
It's hard to digest New York's full-season stats because it basically had three different teams, but overall, the emphasis on the 3 stands out. The Knicks were second only to Orlando, with 28.8 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Between the 3s and a high free throw rate, they were fifth in the league in secondary percentage.
They finished below the league average in offensive efficiency anyway, and the reason was turnovers. New York gave it away on 16.6 percent of its trips, ranking 27th among the league's 30 teams, and this was consistent no matter which "era" we're talking about. With Douglas a mess and Anthony flailing as a point forward, the pre-Lin Knicks were a high-mistake bunch. Lin, for all his strengths, was a turnover machine. And while the mistakes calmed a bit under Woodson, the issue persisted.
New York finished a surprising fifth in defensive efficiency, with the Woodson group performing particularly well. Chandler had a huge effect and won the defensive player of the year award for his efforts, but New York also forced turnovers in bunches. Only Memphis was more successful, and only the Grizzlies permitted fewer opponent shot attempts per possession. As a result, the Knicks could succeed despite average shooting defense (52.6 opponent true shooting percentage, against the league average of 52.7).
One can argue they should have succeeded more, actually. New York won 36 games but had the scoring margin of a 42-win team, and it had nearly the same point differential as Indiana, which won 10 more games.
Jeremy Lin, Carmelo AnthonyJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesEven after captivating New York City during Linsanity, Jeremy Lin was allowed to flee to Houston.
It was a typical Knicks summer in which they used every available exception and sign-and-trade possibility to rope in every player they possibly could, expenses be damned. ... Right up until it came time to match offer sheets for their starting backcourt. The decision not to might well haunt them this season.
Drafted Kostas Papanikolaou. A very good pick in the second round, but one rendered irrelevant by the next move.
Let Jeremy Lin go; traded Dan Gadzuric, Jared Jeffries, a 2016 second-rounder and the rights to Kostas Papanikolaou to Portland for a signed-and-traded Raymond Felton (four years, $15 million) and Kurt Thomas. This was the most baffling part of New York's offseason -- declining to match an offer sheet to Lin and then spending equivalent money to get veterans Felton and Camby, and giving up assets to do it. Felton had an awful season in Portland, and while he might be a bit better in New York it's still a stretch to call him a legit starting NBA point guard at this point. Lin wasn't a great fit with Melo, but even so he was likely to badly outperform Felton. And the Knicks gave up two second-rounders, Papanikolaou and the 2016 pick, to do it. The 2016 second-rounder is top-37 protected, for what it's worth.
Let Landry Fields go; signed Jason Kidd for three years, $9 million: On paper, Kidd might be the Knicks' starting shooting guard this season. One can argue this position suits him better, as he is much more effective guarding 2s than 1s and effectively plays a spot-up shooting role in half-court offensive sets. More worrisome is that New York guaranteed three years to a 39-year-old point guard who clearly took a step back in 2011-12. As for Fields, Toronto made an absurd offer sheet in the hopes of derailing New York's plans to trade for Steve Nash (remember that?). Even given the Knicks' spend-at-all-costs approach, it wasn't a big shock to see them stick Toronto with this contract.
Traded Toney Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrellson, cash and two second-round picks to Houston for a signed-and-traded Marcus Camby (three years, $14 million): New York filled its hole at backup center, although only by somewhat overpaying the declining Camby and surrendering a few useful assets -- not only two second-rounders, but Harrellson, who had shown some uses as a pick-and-pop big man and who now will play against the Knicks in Miami.
One should note that the Knicks pulled off this move and the Felton trade only by signing Gadzuric, Jordan and Harrellson to deals with non-guaranteed second years, a bit of cap-planning foresight that let them participate in the free-agent market via sign-and-trades despite being over the cap. Alas, this window will be closed for luxury tax-paying teams after this season, and the Knicks most likely will be in the tax for the next three years.
Let Mike Bibby, Bill Walker and Baron Davis go; signed Ronnie Brewer, James White and Pablo Prigioni to one-year minimum deals: Getting Brewer for the minimum was the biggest coup of New York's offseason; while he slumped in Chicago last season, he's still a very good defender and his knack for cutting off the ball could prove useful here. In fact, it's possible he will start at the 2.
White and Prigioni are more speculative plays. Prigioni's translated European stats suggest he won't accomplish much, and he's 35 years old, so I don't understand New York's motivation for that deal. White also has bounced around for years, but if he knocks down corner 3s, he will be an upgrade on Walker and could steal some minutes as a backup small forward.
Re-signed J.R. Smith for two years, $5.7 million: This was the most New York could pay Smith, who became the go-to guy for New York's second unit after returning from China. While the Knicks likely gave him too much rope offensively, this is a decent price for his contribution. The deal contains an opt-out option for after the season that Smith is likely to use, but he'll be an early Bird free agent and New York can sign him for up to $4.9 million a year at that point.
Re-signed Steve Novak for four years, $15 million: Novak's big payday came after the Players Association won a court case to establish his Bird rights, even though he had been waived before New York claimed him. (The same case also affected Lin.) Had that not happened, the Knicks almost certainly would have lost Novak to another team. At this price, Novak's deal is decent as long as he can play passable defense, which he did for the first time last season. His shooting ability is obviously not in doubt.
Signed Rasheed Wallace for one year, minimum: Unlike New York's other dice rolls on ancient players, this one carried no risk in terms of years or dollars and, as a result, is a much more acceptable gamble. Wallace's conditioning fell off dramatically in his final two seasons, and one doesn't get the impression he's been running stairs and drinking protein shakes in retirement. Nonetheless, his size, shooting ability and defensive IQ give him a chance to provide some decent minutes off the bench.
New York KnicksJennifer Pottheiser/Getty ImagesFor better or worse, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler will lead N.Y. again.
Once again, this team is likely to have more sizzle than steak. New York did all the classic win-the-news-conference Knicks stuff you're used to by now -- giving long-term deals to declining veterans, trading their draft picks eons ago and letting their best young players leave.
With all that said, this won't be a terrible team, and had Shumpert not hurt his knee, you could make a stronger case that it might earn a top-four seed. The Knicks are going to disappoint offensively as long as they insist on playing Anthony and Stoudemire alongside each other, and that suboptimal setup comes with the added negative of anemic scoring from the backcourt.
That said, the Knicks had a ton of similar problems last season and still won games. No matter how bad Felton is, he'll be better than Douglas or Bibby was, and while Kidd is a shadow of what he was, he and Brewer are unlikely to be appreciably worse than Fields. Similarly, Camby, for all his faults, is a genuine upgrade on the Jared Jeffries-Harrellson combo that previously backed up Chandler.
In an Eastern Conference in which several teams are likely to land within a few games of each other, that yields a wide range of landing spots for the 'Bockers. If everything goes right -- meaning Melo and Chandler stay healthy, Felton lays off the bonbons, and the defensive effort of this past spring sustains itself -- one can see New York winning the division at or near 50 wins. This is particularly true if the Knicks change their stubborn course, start Anthony at the 4 and bring Stoudemire off the bench.
However, we don't do forecasts based on best-case scenarios. New York doesn't have a ton of depth, it's counting on older players and there's a chance Stoudemire's decline will continue into the abyss this season. The more likely outcome is that the Knicks will remain somewhat above-average defensively, thanks largely to Chandler, but that a middling offense will condemn them to another one-and-done postseason.
Prediction: 45-37, 4th in Atlantic, tied for 6th in Eastern Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:23 (thirteen years ago)
chicago bulls
Turns out that the biggest threat to Chicago's title hopes wasn't the Miami Heat, but rather two other little-discussed threats: Derrick Rose's knee ligaments and Jerry Reinsdorf's wallet.
Chicago was the East's top seed despite an injury-plagued season from Rose, but when he blew out his knee in the first round of the playoffs, Chicago's offense never recovered. He's expected to miss most of the current season too, although we may see a late-season cameo, so the best-case scenario is that Chicago's title hopes are on hold for a year.
But it might be longer given Reinsdorf's stance toward the luxury tax. The Bulls have never paid it and apparently have no intention to; as a result, they refused to match an offer sheet to Omer Asik, and either cut or gave away three other important members of last season's hugely productive second unit.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Bulls' roster. Player Profiles Insider
The scary part is that the Bulls are still hurtling toward their financial cliff. Restricted free agent Taj Gibson is due for a major payday next summer, one that may result in the Bulls using the amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer to make ends meet. The non-guaranteed deal of Richard Hamilton also may fall under the ax, if he hasn't been traded by then.
Of course, this is all speculative. What Chicago has done to date can easily be defended; it's the owner's reputation that has everyone worried. For starters, the Bulls are still over the tax by about $3 million, although they could easily trade their way under during the season. Even if they do, that might not be such a bad idea if they plan on going over the threshold in future seasons, as it would push back when the Bulls would be subject to the league's "repeater" penalties.
Moreover, the Bulls aren't not be in bad shape in other respects. Their other best players, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Gibson, all are 27 or younger, and there may be more help on the way once Euro-stash pick Nikola Mirotic and 2012 first-rounder Marquis Teague are ready.
In the short term, the good news for Chicago is there is still enough talent on hand to field a very competitive team. The Bulls went 18-9 without Rose last season, and their two most identifiable characteristics -- manic defense and prolific rebounding -- had little to do with their floor general. Nonetheless, the playoffs showed how much harder it is for Chicago to sustain a cohesive offensive attack without him. It will be even harder after the Bulls made several secondary cuts.
The net result is a team that several fan bases would be glad to have, especially if Tom Thibodeau can keep it playing hair-on-fire defense, but one that will likely disappoint those who witnessed the past two campaigns.
Derrick RoseJonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesWhen Derrick Rose hit the floor during the playoff opener, so did Chicago's hopes.
Some wondered whether Thibs' players could maintain their intensity over a second season, especially one as grinding as the lockout campaign. Man, did they ever. Despite not having Rose for half the year and battling various and sundry other injuries (Hamilton missed half the year, Deng was nagged by a wrist problem most of the season, and C.J. Watson also missed significant time), Chicago's intensity never flagged.
This was most obvious at the defensive end, where the Bulls just suffocated opponents with their persistent help, active bigs and refusal to concede a 3-point shot. The latter is an underrated factor in their excellence: Only 17.3 percent of Chicago's shots against were 3-point tries, by far the lowest rate in the league (see chart), and it's why the Bulls led the league in opponent TS percentage.
Of course, the Bulls also led the league in opponent 2-point percentage, so you were screwed either way, and they cleaned up the misses by boarding 74.3 precent of missed shots. Perhaps the most amazing part is that, as hard as they played, Chicago had the third-lowest foul rate in the league, with only .236 opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt. The only thing Chicago didn't do well was force turnovers.
Lowest opponent 3-point rate, 2011-12Team Opp 3A/FGAChicago .173Philadelphia .202Phoenix .205Houston .209San Antonio .210League average .226
Causes for Chicago's defensive dominance weren't hard to find. Noah, Gibson and Asik are three of the best frontcourt defenders in basketball, while Deng is an ace wing defender and Brewer a vastly underrated pest off the bench. Throw in Thibodeau's schemes and preparation and a 12-deep roster, and there were few weak links to attack (coughBoozercough).
Offensively, the Bulls were average in most respects but had two characteristics that lifted them above the masses. First, while they didn't shoot 3s often, they shot them well: Chicago was fourth in the league at 37.5 percent, an impressive performance for a team with only one elite shooter (Korver).
Best Offensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12Team Ast/FGAChicago 32.6Utah 30.2Memphis 29.8L.A. Clippers 29.5Indiana 29.2
But mostly, the Bulls were about quantity over quality. Chicago was phenomenally good on the offensive glass, retrieving 32.6 percent of its missed shots; for comparison, the Bulls' offensive rebound rate was nearly double that of Boston's. What made this particularly amazing is that the Bulls appeared to suffer no loss in transition defense as a result of this approach. Often the best offensive rebounding teams are also bad defensively because they overcommit players to the glass, but Chicago was awesome on D.
This fact may have some carryover into their playoff struggles. We have a fair amount of anecdotal evidence that teams with a "volume" offensive strategy, like Chicago, are more easily defended in the postseason. Of course, a more accessible explanation is that Rose, Noah and Deng all were hurt and they were facing the league's No. 3 defense.
Kirk HinrichAP Photo/Charles CherneyKirk Hinrich is back in the picture for Chicago, where he played his first seven seasons in the NBA.
See if you can detect a pattern here. The Bulls will have four of the same five starters as a year ago, but the offseason completely eviscerated their bench, with five key reserves replaced by minimum or rookie-salaried alternatives.
Let Omer Asik go, signed Nazr Mohammed for one year, minimum: The Bulls couldn't afford to match Houston's offer sheet to Asik, since it contained a "poison pill" in the form of a third year at $14.9 million -- right when the Bulls' cap situation looked to be at its worst anyway. The luxury tax bill was likely to add $15 million on top of Asik's salary, making it a $30 million season.
Nonetheless, not matching will leave a dent. While Asik couldn't score, he was one of the best defensive centers in basketball. Additionally, Chicago made a pretty uninspired choice as a replacement in the veteran Mohammed, who fell out of the Thunder's rotation last season and may not have much left in the tank at 35.
Cut C.J. Watson, drafted Marquis Teague: The Bulls waived the nonguaranteed deal of Watson and drafted Teague; certainly we can agree that the latter was a solid move given how late Chicago picked. Teague was up-and-down in his one year at Kentucky but still graded out as one of the top prospects at his position. He's only 19 and may need some seasoning, but it's rare for this much ability to be available with the 29th pick.
Cut Ronnie Brewer, signed Marco Belinelli for one year, minimum: Another money-saving move, and a hurtful one. Chicago cut the nonguaranteed Brewer, who was one of the keys to the second unit's defensive power, and replaced him with the barely replacement-level Belinelli. While he started the past two years in New Orleans, he wasn't particularly good, and the Bulls are going to take a step back at this position.
Traded Kyle Korver to Atlanta for cash, signed Vladimir Radmanovic for one year, minimum: Seeing a pattern yet? The Bulls even got paid for cutting salary on this move. However, there was at least a sneaky upside to the Korver deal in the form of a $5 million trade exception that the Bulls have until next July to use. Chicago is likely to keep that in its pocket until the draft or free agency, at which time they'll be able to take in a $5 million player from someplace else. Basically, it can act almost as a second midlevel exception for sign-and-trade deals, which will be important if they amnesty Boozer.
As for Radmanovic, he was a fine pickup for the price given his ability to play both forward spots and rain 3s, but again, this was a downgrade from Korver.
Let John Lucas go, signed Nate Robinson for one year, minimum: This is the one move I'd argue made the Bulls better. Robinson played very well in Golden State last season, and his offensive explosiveness will be very important for the second unit. While Robinson is flaky, Thibodeau has dealt with him before in Boston, and he gave the Warriors few problems last season. Don't be surprised if he finishes games, too, given this team's need for offense.
Signed Kirk Hinrich for two years, $8 million: The one genuine expenditure of the Bulls' offseason was actually a fairly risky one, and one I'd argue was made more with their hearts than their heads. Hinrich struggled in Atlanta last season, and in particular has had a tremendously difficult time playing point guard since becoming a Hawk. So plugging him in as a starting point guard for $4 million a year seems, shall we say, suboptimal. Looking out further, there's likely an idea that he can replace Hamilton at shooting guard once Rose returns, and that may be more plausible ... except that he's been in steady decline since leaving Chicago the first time, and he really shouldn't be starting on a good team anymore.
Joakim NoahRob Grabowski/US PresswireWith Derrick Rose on the mend, it's up to Joakim Noah and Luol Deng to lead the way.
A lot of unknowns go into this prediction, not least how many games Rose will play. I have him pegged for 20 games at a level that's not quite where he was a year ago, but tinkering with this variable understandably produces large shifts in the projected outcome for this team.
Past that, the Bulls can still hang their hats on the defense and frontcourt. Even without Asik, the Bulls project to be pretty beastly up front. In fact, one hot debate topic is likely to be whether Gibson should replace Boozer as the starting power forward. This may not be the year for it, as the Bulls will be desperate for Boozer's scoring, but it seems an inevitable shift at some point.
Defensively, Chicago will take a slight step back because the bench won't be as good at this end. Belinelli, Robinson, Radmanovic and Mohammed all are ordinary-to-bad defenders, and two of the departed players, Asik and Brewer, were very, very good. No matter how much you believe in Thibodeau's mojo, it's unrealistic to think this won't leave a dent. It's possible second-year pro Jimmy Butler helps here, and he may play ahead of one of the two Euros.
Offensively, the Bulls' bench reshuffle won't hurt them nearly as much -- Robinson should help quite a bit and Asik, for all his defensive merits, was a terrible offensive player.
Instead, it's the little matter of replacing Rose with Hinrich, who flopped as a point guard in Atlanta and now must guide an offense without a ton of scoring help. Chicago will still get some cheap points on second shots, but it seems a long shot they'll finish in the top five on offense again.
The good news is that Thibodeau's robust D will keep them in games, even if it does decline a bit from the past two years. Look for them to stay in the top six or seven teams on defense, offsetting what's likely to be a 20th-ranked or so offense. Yet the net effect is that, even with a quarter-season of Rose, Chicago makes the playoffs. Which doesn't seem so crazy, given how well the Bulls did without him a year ago.
Prediction: 43-39, 2nd in Central Division, 8th in Eastern Conference
utah jazz
There's a mile-wide gap between "having a chance to do big things" and actually doing big things. Having said that: The Jazz have a chance to do some big things.
On paper, no team is better set up for the future. The Jazz have four talented young players, all of whom are on rookie contracts and all of whom play different positions. The only spot not represented among that group is point guard, the easiest position to fill.
And otherwise, the Jazz are almost completely unencumbered contract-wise. They have two hugely productive frontcourt players on the final year of their respective contracts in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, have other veterans on expiring or nearly expiring deals and could have as much as $30 million in cap space entering this summer.
Additionally, they've put themselves in good shape by hiring the well-respected Dennis Lindsey from San Antonio to be their new general manager, with former GM Kevin O'Connor moving into an oversight role.
Unfortunately, the term "cap space" has a very different meaning for the Utahs of the world than it does for the New Yorks and Miamis, which is why there's a good chance we see the Jazz use it to do something other than sign players to big contracts. They have more than $40 million in expiring contracts, which presents some very interesting trade chips, and they're also sitting on a potential lottery pick from Golden State (top-six protected).
Regardless, the brightness of Utah's future depends more than anything on four youngsters: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks and Enes Kanter. Each has shown flashes of potential stardom, but none is a fully-formed star and there's no guarantee any of them will be. Of the group, Favors is the one who showed the most star potential so far; in fact his development late last season was so rapid that it sets a scenario in which the Jazz might trade Jefferson or Millsap just to clear more minutes for him. Utah's present is interesting as well -- this should once again be a decent team that contends for one of the West's final playoff spots after last season's surprising surge to the No. 8 seed. But Jazz fans should be watching two factors more intently: first, obviously, how the four young players progress, and second, how Ty Corbin evolves in his third season on the job. While they finished strongly last season, his overall campaign was fairly rocky. Inherited coaches tend not to stay on the job long when a new GM arrives, so he'll need to show he can move Utah past its Sloan-era stuff and make more coherent personnel decisions.
Al Jefferson Russ Isabella/US PresswireAl Jefferson's turnover rate of 4.7 last season was an historic low when factoring in his usage rate.It was your typical Utah season on many levels, as the Jazz exhibited virtually every trait that most older Utahns now can recite by heart: an insanely high foul rate, a very high rebound rate, lots of free throws and only a rudimentary understanding of where the 3-point line is and how it might benefit them.
One other thing that stood out, however, is that Corbin, in his first season as head coach, favored his veterans to a near-comical extent. The most notable manifestation was his decision to start Raja Bell and Josh Howard on the wings, even though Bell was plainly finished and Howard had seen much better days as well. This maneuver kept the vastly better Hayward as a reserve for much of the year and left first-rounder Burks as a fringe fourth wing player. Playing with three other starters who had strongly positive plus-minus numbers, both Bell and Howard still managed to land in the negatives.
A more humorous twist came midway through the year, when Bell and Corbin began feuding, even though Corbin was basically the only thing keeping Bell in an NBA lineup. When eventually injuries knocked Bell and Howard out, the Jazz hit another gear with Hayward starting, Burks playing more and Paul Millsap occasionally featuring in a monstrous frontcourt with Jefferson and Favors.
The powerful frontcourt was the centerpiece of a surprisingly efficient offense, thanks to Jefferson's ability to create shots with virtually no cost in turnovers. The Jazz had the league's seventh-best turnover rate, a shocking development for a team that scored nearly all its points in the paint or on post-ups. Thanks to their frontcourt muscle (which also included Favors and Kanter), Utah also had the league's second-best offensive rebound rate, and between that and the low turnover rate, the Jazz were fourth in shot attempts per possession.
They had a high 2-point percentage and drew lots of fouls, too. So what held them back? The fact that they scored entirely in 2-point increments. Only 15.3 percent of Utah's shots were 3s, the second-lowest figure in the league and an awful one for a team with a dominant post player. The Jazz made only 32.2 percent of their triples, ranking them 27th, and of note was how rarely they took the 3 from the best spot on the floor, the corner: The Jazz took only 168 all season, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool, about half the league average and more than 30 fewer than every other team except Charlotte.
Some may point out that the Jazz also had few players capable of making the 3, so the two problems go hand in hand. Nonetheless, players like Hayward, Bell and C.J. Miles should have had more easy looks from the corner than they had, and this is an area the Jazz need to improve going forward.
Defensively, Corbin stayed loyal to the Sloan-era mentality of fouling first and asking questions later, although one might consider it slight progress that they were "only" 28th in opponent free throw rate. Even aside from that, this wasn't a particularly good defense, ranking 22nd in opponent 2-point field goal percentage and middling-to-poor at everything else except rebounding. But throw in the fouls, and Utah finished only 20th in defensive efficiency.
The good news here is that Favors showed monstrous potential at this end late in the season, and the other three kids got better as the year went on. But this is another area in which Corbin needs to prove himself, because Utah can't realistically contend for anything important fouling this frequently.
JazzMelissa Majchrzak/Getty ImagesThe Jazz added ex-Clippers Randy Foye and Mo Williams to bolster their backcourt.
Other than Lindsey, the Jazz's biggest offseason moves were to address their shooting deficiencies and the need for a wing stopper. Utah also has one piece of unfinished business regarding Bell, with whom they're working on a buyout.
Traded Devin Harris to Atlanta for Marvin Williams: I wasn't crazy about this move because the Jazz should have been able to extract a draft pick in return for taking on the additional year on Williams' contract. Basketball-wise, however, this improves them. Williams is a decent small forward who can space the floor reasonably well and guard opposing 3s; as such, he fills a glaring need on the Jazz roster. (Aside: This is if you presume Hayward is a 2. Personally, I think he's better as a 3 and would have rather seen the Jazz add a pure 2 to play next to him, but that's nitpicking.)
Traded rights to Tadija Dragicevic and cash to the Clippers for Mo Williams and rights to Shan Foster: Here's the backstory: Utah had a $10 million trade exception lying around from the previous winter's trade of Mehmet Okur to New Jersey (a masterful unburdening of dead weight that somehow netted them a 2015 second-round pick in return), and thus were able to take Williams into it pretty much for free when the Clippers needed to create a salary slot for Lamar Odom. Williams is a great fit in Utah because he provides the shooting this team craves, as well as a caretaker point guard who can get them into their stuff -- that's all they need, given that they mostly post up. I'm not sure he's a better player than Devin Harris, but he seems to be a better fit given their needs.
Signed Randy Foye for one year, $2.5 million: This wasn't a bad play, all things considered; Foye is small for a wing, but he can shoot spot-up jumpers and is capable of playing point guard in a pinch -- something that might need to happen given that Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are the other point guards. With a one-year deal, it's risk-free, too.
Re-signed Jeremy Evans for three years, $5 million: Evans is a weird player -- he has good per-minute stats, but his only functional offensive maneuver appears to be the alley-oop, and his rail-thin frame is a major limitation defensively. As such, Utah's approach was probably the most sensible one: Lock him up cheaply for a while and see if he becomes a worthwhile rotation player.
Let Josh Howard go, drafted Kevin Murphy: I'm not a fan of Murphy, who had fairly poor athletic numbers (blocks, steals, rebounds) even against a low level of college competition, and a senior-year jump in 3-point percentage that looks to be an outlier. If he surprises, it will be because he proves the 3-point jump was a genuine improvement and not a one-year fluke.
Paul MillsapRuss Isabella/US PresswireAn undersized 4, Paul Millsap might be the most underrated player in the league.
The Jazz are an up-and-coming young team that made the playoffs last season, so one might assume that, at a minimum, they'll make it again. They might, but it won't be simple. The Jazz indeed played very well at the end of last season, but they also benefited from tremendous health for their best players and the bizarre fact that their only two serious injuries actually helped them by eliminating underperformers.
The Jazz have other issues going on outside of that. Several players are playing for contracts, and the possibility of a trade involving Jefferson or Millsap looms. Also, the backcourt depth is a potential issue, especially if Mo Williams -- who has missed at least a dozen games in seven of his nine seasons -- can't stay on the floor.
The two things to like, on the other hand, are that a healthy Jazz team would likely be better in the two areas that plagued them most a year ago: defense and 3-point shooting. Mo Williams and Foye give them some genuine knockdown shooters on the perimeter, and Hayward should be better as well. Defensively, another year of experience for their young players, increased playing time for Favors and the addition of Marvin Williams should all spell an improvement.
They'll need it, though, because there's no guarantee their best players will glide through the regular season injury-free again. Additionally, any defensive improvement will be marginal if Corbin can't change their approach from the mad-hacking system of the past decade-plus into a more sensible approach based on eliminating high-percentage opportunities (such as free throws, for instance). Similarly, the added shooting will be of a lot more benefit if Corbin can help them make use of the heretofore abandoned short corner.
Taking a step back and looking at last season's top eight in the West, I think that Minnesota is likely to join the group, which means somebody else has to fall out. The two most likely candidates are Dallas and Utah, which tied for the conference's seventh and eighth spots last season. It's a close call, and I had Utah out until Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki started having knee problems. Now I'm thinking the Jazz just squeeze in.
Prediction: 44-38, 4th in Northwest Division, 8th in Western Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:24 (thirteen years ago)
Milwaukee has been one of the league's more forgettable teams in recent times -- they're a small market team in an aging arena and haven't won a playoff series in a dozen years.
But keep an eye on these guys, because they could be very interesting this season on multiple levels. The coach and general manager are both in the final year of their contracts after three seasons spent largely spinning their wheels. They have a ton of trade assets, even if there isn't a single superstar player, and could have massive cap space in the summer depending on how things shake out. Combine the two, and you have both the motive and the opportunity to do something huge. Sooner rather than later, I'm guessing, something's gotta give here.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Bucks' roster. Player Profiles Insider
In the meantime, the Bucks have become something of a monument to averageness, finishing slightly below .500 in the standings but slightly ahead in point differential, and bursting at the seams with half-good players. They may become the first team in history with 12 players having a PER of exactly 15.00. Don't put it past them.
The other issue in Milwaukee is that the pieces, while interesting, don't fit together particularly well. Last season's decision to jettison Andrew Bogut saved a ton of money and may pay huge dividends next summer, but for the moment it's left them with two pint-sized, shoot-first, ball-dominating guards trying to play together.
Yet the Bucks have depth everywhere -- consider that first-round pick John Henson and shot-blocking ace Larry Sanders don't show up high on the depth chart -- and there isn't a bad contract in the bunch. (That's what made the Bogut deal so appealing -- they dumped Stephen Jackson's contract, which was the residue from previously dumping John Salmons' contract, which is the one big mistake that got them in this spot in the first place).
Basically, the Bucks' front office has fulfilled a lot of its objectives, save for the part about making the playoffs. It's not easy building a roster this deep, especially one with clean books. Unless a star emerges, alas, it may not help much.
Monta Ellis Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireMonta Ellis' 43.3 field goal percentage last season was his lowest since his rookie season in 2005-2006.
Milwaukee began the year as a low-scoring defensive team centered around Bogut and ended it as an offensive team that couldn't stop anybody. This, of course, was necessitated by the early-season ankle injury suffered by Bogut, in the midst of a dominant defensive performance against Houston. Milwaukee went to Plan B, playing smaller with Drew Gooden at center and firing away on offense. The likes of Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Dunleavy and Gooden, in particular, performed far better than anyone expected.
Milwaukee also had particularly good ball movement in this phase, with Gooden seeming to discover the joys of passing as a high-post center. The Bucks were second only to Boston with assists on 62 percent of their baskets, and it wasn't because Brandon Jennings suddenly turned into Steve Nash. This was a teamwide thing -- Milwaukee would start pinging the ball around the perimeter and finding an open shooter or a layup. It was fun to watch.
Highest pct. of assisted baskets, 2011-12Team % assistedBoston 65.5Milwaukee 62.0Chicago 61.9Denver 61.5L.A. Lakers 61.1League average 57.5
Monta Ellis' arrival took some of the steam out of that approach, however, as the Bucks now had two ball-stopping guards on their side; although Ellis has a high assist rate for a shooting guard, the dimes weren't happening in the same organic way Milwaukee produced them in the middle part of the year. Nonetheless, the Bucks went 12-9 with Ellis after the trade. It was against a soft schedule and a couple of the losses (particularly the all-but-season-ending one to Washington) were disappointing, but it's a bit rich to blame their failure to qualify for the playoffs on Ellis monopolizing the rock. The bigger issue was that they just had too much ground to make up.
Defensively, however, the Bucks lost the mojo they'd shown in previous seasons under Skiles. Losing Bogut obviously hurt, and they had some bad luck too -- Milwaukee opponents shot a league-best 76.9 percent from the line, and you can't really blame the Bucks' "free throw defense" for that one. (Net cost: about 22 points, or 0.9 wins).
Nonetheless, the Bucks weren't particularly good at any aspect of defense and, sans Bogut, were notably awful on the glass -- Milwaukee was just 25th in defensive rebound rate. Moreover, even if you adjust for the Bucks' suboptimal luck on free throws and point differential, this was still the ninth-best team in the East. There were lots of microreasons you can point to for why they didn't make the playoffs, but the overarching macroreasons was that they didn't deserve to.
Samuel DalembertGary Dineen/NBAE/Getty ImagesSamuel Dalembert joins his fourth team in four seasons, giving the Bucks defense in the middle.
It was a fairly quiet offseason, aside from the mutterings that Skiles was interested in a buyout of the final year of his contract, as the Bucks' main "offseason" trade was the Bogut-Ellis deal at the deadline. The other piece of unfinished business was an extension for Jennings, but the Bucks might be wise to wait on that one given that, as a restricted free agent, they can match any offer a year from now. Check out these moves:
Traded Shaun Livingston, Jon Leuer and Jon Brockman to Houston for Sam Dalembert: Milwaukee aggressively went after its biggest weakness from the previous season by sending some leftover pieces to Houston for Dalembert. While losing Leuer was unfortunate -- he was a surprisingly effective second-round pick -- Dalembert answers the need for a strong defensive rebounder in the middle, and one who will let Gooden play his more natural power forward position. On a one-year deal, he also keeps the Bucks' pristine salary cap situation in order.
W-L: 31-35 (Pythagorean W-L: 34-32)Offensive Efficiency: 102.4 (16th)Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (17thPace Factor: 96.4 (3rd)Highest PER: Ersan Ilyasova (20.55)
Let Carlos Delfino go, drafted Doron Lamb: Milwaukee had enough of a crowd on the wings that it didn't make sense to pay Delfino to stay, especially after he declined noticeably in 2011-12. His rotation spot will be taken not by Lamb, but by 2011 first-rounder Tobias Harris, who showed promise in limited minutes a year ago. Lamb, a second-rounder, gives the Bucks another potential catch-and-shoot weapon -- Mike Dunleavy is really the only other one on the roster -- and looked to be good value early in the second round.
Drafted John Henson: Milwaukee's first-round pick faces a logjam in the frontcourt, and despite the fact he was taken in the lottery he may see a lot of time in the D-League if everyone is healthy. Henson has a lot of upside but he has a very thin frame and may need to spend the time working on his body. A year from now, the Bucks are likely to have a lot more minutes available for him, and he's a lot more likely to be able to fill them.
Signed Joel Przybilla and Marquis Daniels: End of the roster filler. Move along. Nothing to see here. I was actually surprised to see the Bucks give either of these cats guaranteed money, but they're so far under the tax line that it's unlikely to matter.
Re-signed Ersan Ilyasova for five years, $40 million: Milwaukee's most important move was keeping Ilyasova after a breakout 2011-12 season. There's a risk that it was a contract year thing, but Ilyasova is also just 25 and wasn't a bad player even before last season. The Bucks also kept their risk fairly reasonable, as the fifth year isn't guaranteed and the contract doesn't contain annual raises. Most importantly, the dollars are just low enough that Milwaukee can still be a free-agent player next summer.
Brandon JenningsJeff Hanisch/US PresswireBrandon Jennings enters his fourth season having topped 40 percent shooting for the first time.
So how is this backcourt thing going to work? Ellis and Jennings are not only an odd couple in the backcourt, but could be at cross purposes as both look to get paid this summer. Jennings will be a restricted free agent, most likely, while Ellis has an opt-out that I'd say he's at least 50 percent likely to exercise.
Yet the biggest question with both is at the other end; each is undersized and Ellis in particular has shown little inclination to expend much effort defensively. Which gets to the real crux of the problem: Ellis is a sixth man masquerading as a go-to guy, and unfortunately the Bucks reinforced this by playing him 40+ minutes many nights after the trade.
Of course, for the Bucks this is an issue more in theory than in practice, as they don't have a starting 2 anyway. They don't have any wing defenders either, with the glaring exception of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, but his inability to shoot creates substantial problems in its own right -- and is why the Bucks have often used him as a 4 in recent seasons. That won't be an option with the top-heavy frontcourt, and it may be that the Bucks look to trade from their surplus to fill in the backcourt more ably. In particular, dealing Gooden for a starting 2 that can shoot and defend would solve several of these problems at once.
In the meantime, keep an eye on Harris, who will be the backup small forward and could emerge as the go-to guy for the second unit. (If it isn't Ellis, that is). Milwaukee will again have an extremely strong bench; in fact, as Gooden is one of the best No. 3 bigs in basketball, backup center Ekpe Udoh is an outstanding defender, reserve guards Beno Udrih and Dunleavy are very solid players, and even fifth big Larry Sanders is a crazy shot-blocker with some upside.
The bench strength guarantees that the Bucks can survive the regular-season grind in decent shape, but the bigger question is whether there's sufficient star power and defensive gravitas to push them above the East's lottery flotsam. That's particularly true given that Skiles may be at the end of his road here, as his track record is that he burns out after a few years in one city; this is now in his fifth in Brewtown, and Year 4 wasn't pretty.
It wouldn't shock me to see Milwaukee return to the postseason, especially if the Bucks can make another roster tweak or two. But the more likely scenario is that they challenge for the playoffs again -- and once again fall short. The Bucks either need a defensive renaissance or a breakout season from one of the guards to exceed that projection; either is possible, but neither is particularly likely.
Prediction: 38-44, 3rd in Central, tied for 9th in Eastern Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:25 (thirteen years ago)
dallas mavericks
Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was a terrible decision.
When discussing the Mavs' failed title defense, let's start there. They made a conscious decision to let Tyson Chandler walk, retool around one or two superstar free agents in the summer of 2012 and make another go at it.
This was a calculated risk, and it failed. But if you went in assuming something on the realm of 50-50 or 40-60 odds at pulling this off, it's tough to condemn the process just because of the outcome.
This strategy represented an understanding of the context of the 2011 championship, a feat of underrated difficultly in the heat of the moment. The Mavs realized they were a spectacular example of lightning being caught in a bottle and that even if they had brought back the same players, they were highly unlikely to find themselves in the same position again.
So Dallas rolled the dice that it could remain an elite team more sustainably with the help of a Dwight Howard or a Deron Williams and that they had enough juice to stay competitive in the meantime. The latter point depends largely on what you think about "competitive" -- the Mavs had a fine season by the standards of most, but defending champions generally expect to win a playoff game or two.
All of this would have been gleefully accepted if Williams or Howard landed on their doorstep, but neither did. Plan B is far less sexy. The Mavs are left probing the atmosphere for somebody willing to accept their trove of cap space and rescue them from another one-and-done. Meanwhile, another precious year of Dirk Nowitzki's prime wilts on the vine.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Mavs' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Again, it wasn't necessarily a terrible decision. Paying Chandler would have led to its own problems, and that wouldn't have made their other guys any younger.
That, in the big picture, might be Dallas' more pressing problem. After years of churning on the title-chase treadmill, the Mavericks have no young stars coming up through the pipeline the way, say, Josh Howard and Devin Harris did in previous renditions. Stealing Chandler in an all-time LOL trade with Charlotte pushed that issue to the side for a year, but it never really went away.
Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn MarionRon Jenkins/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/MCT/Getty ImagesShawn Marion and Co. will need to help Dirk Nowitzki, who's battling a troublesome right knee.
The defining element of Dallas' season had little to do with Chandler's absence. Look at the stats and you'd think it was J.J. Barea that was the difference-maker. The Mavs roared through the 2011 postseason with one of the greatest offensive onslaughts in playoff history, but in 2011-12, they couldn't find the bucket. Dallas finished 20th in offensive efficiency, devolving into a jump-shooting offense that rarely scored inside. The Mavs were 27th in free throw rate and 28th in offensive rebound rate; basically everybody took jumpers.
It didn't help that Nowitzki got off to a slow start, but the problems went much deeper. The vets started showing their age, most notably Jason Kidd, leaving Dirk with a much less imposing arsenal around him. No other Mav except Brandan Wright -- who was 10th on the team in minutes -- had a PER above 16. Moreover, the closest thing to a second star on the team, Lamar Odom, loafed through a disastrous season that featured the largest one-year PER decline in recorded history.
W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 36-30)Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (20th)Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (8th)Pace Factor: 93.5 (16th)Highest PER: Dirk Nowitzki (21.81)
Even their one positive offensive stat was really a negative: The Mavs had the fewest shots blocked of any team, at 4.9 percent of their attempts. The reason was that they were shooting almost entirely jump shots.
Defensively, Dallas' depth, versatility and masterful use of zone defenses helped paper over the absence of Chandler. The Mavs finished eighth in efficiency, providing a reasonable facsimile of their championship season on this end. It was the offensive decline that killed them.
Look deep enough and some positive stories emerged. Wright was a scrap-heap find at backup center, Delonte West was a solid two-way winger at a bargain price, Ian Mahinmi turned into a legitimate rotation player, and Nowitzki played like the Dirk of old in the second half of the season. But their most talented young player, Rodrigue Beaubois, scuffled through another disappointing campaign, and 2010 first-rounder Dominique Jones failed to gain traction.
Elton Brand Jerome Miron/US PresswireElton Brand is one of the key pieces the Mavericks are counting on after a busy offseason.
Once it couldn't spend on stars, Dallas did the next best thing, inking a bunch of halfway decent players to short-term contracts and keeping its powder dry for next summer. Give the Mavericks props, as they were creative and found some outstanding value to keep this roster afloat for another season. But in the big picture, this still was a salvage job.
Traded Lamar Odom and a Kardashian to be named later to the Clippers for rights to Tadija Dragicevic and cash: Sadly, Odom tanked so badly that the Mavs couldn't even get a draft pick for him, and had to settle for dumping his remaining salary on the Clippers. Dallas also had to send the rights to Shan Foster to Utah as part of this deal, but he and Dragicevic were superfluous. The Mavs at least got some cash for their trouble, partly offsetting the money Odom stole from them last season.
Amnestied Brendan Haywood, signed Chris Kaman for one year, $8 million: Despite the hopeful talk out of Big D that it might be able to trade Haywood, this was a matter of if, not when. Wiping Haywood's money off the books enabled the other cap moves by the Mavs this summer, most notably the Kaman signing. In general I'm not a big Kaman guy; he's a deceptively bad low-post player because he turns it over so much. That said, his pick-and-pop game could be a real weapon on this team, and I suspect the Mavs are smart enough to realize he's not a go-to guy on the block. By any measure, he'll be a huge upgrade on Haywood, and he comes on a risk-free one-year deal.
Drafted Jared Cunningham, Bernard James and Jae Crowder: The latest hope for some youth and vitality, these three will try to add some energy and ball hawking off the bench. Cunningham might have been a slight reach late in the first round, but he is an upside pick as an athletic winger who could be potent if he refines his skills. Crowder is a defensive pest who could pay immediate dividends, although his offensive game is well behind his D, and was a good grab early in the second. James, a 27-year-old frontcourt enforcer with a great backstory, seemed like more of a reach.
Let Jason Terry go, signed O.J. Mayo for two years, $8.2 million: Dallas' cap realities dictated this mild downgrade from a great midrange shooter to a merely good one. That said, Mayo is younger, and you'll probably have to stare pretty closely to find big differences between the outputs of these two. The hope in Dallas is that Mayo has a good year and opts out of the second season of his deal, because if he stays, it may mess up their cap plans.
Won rights to Elton Brand in amnesty auction for $2.1 million: Brand has declined, but I mean, $2.1 million? This was an absolute steal, and it comes with zero risk since it's only for one year. Brand was productive at the defensive end last season and can likely play as a 5 alongside Nowitzki during crunch time, plus his pick-and-pop game should fit this system. The lone, slight downside is that he can't be traded.
Let Jason Kidd go, signed-and-traded Ian Mahinmi to Indiana for Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones: Though not quite on par with the Chandler deal as far as heists go, this was a heck of a deal for Dallas. Mahinmi was redundant with the development of Brandan Wright and additions of Brand and Kaman, and the Mavs needed a starting point guard once Kidd and Terry walked.
They not only got one, but they got him on -- you guessed it -- a one-year deal, as Collison is a restricted free agent in 2013. Better yet, his cap hold is low enough that Dallas may be able to do their free-agent shopping next summer and still keep him. The one worry with Collison is his lack of court vision, which may hinder his ability to play pick-and-pop with Dallas' bigs. Jones' final year at $2.9 million had to be swallowed to take Collison, but no worries -- Dallas could use another feisty wing defender, especially given West's injury proneness.
MavericksAP Photo/LM OteroWelcome to Dallas.
The Mavs managed to keep the ship upright with a flurry of clever moves after Plan A didn't work out, which will keep them relevant for another season. With that said, their roster looks more like a fringe playoff team than a real contender. Nowitzki is the one genuine star, and the team that surrounds him is quite deep. It is not, unfortunately, particularly talented at the top of the lineup. Dirk is the only starter with a projected PER above the league average.
Despite having one of the greatest offensive players in history, Dallas is likely to finish below the league average in offensive efficiency again. Its best shot at avoiding this fate is a breakout season from one of the young guards -- Collison, Mayo or Beaubois -- but their respective employers each waited fruitlessly the past few seasons for that same leap. Chances are, it's not happening. It would also help if at least one of them became a competent passer, especially with the quality of jump-shooting bigs on this team. Again, don't hold your breath.
Defensively, however, the Mavs should continue to frustrate opponents. Collison and West are pests, Brand is seriously underrated at this end, and Kaman provides a legit 5 to replace Haywood. Moreover, they still have one of the best and most creative coaches in basketball in Rick Carlisle, and he can be counted on to muck up games and confuse opponents with his schemes.
Nonetheless, the biggest reason for optimism in Dallas is that they've kept the powder dry for a midseason blockbuster. Should somebody like Chris Paul or Josh Smith start pining for greener pastures, the Mavs may yet bank on their post-Chandler strategy. It's also possible they go in the opposite direction come the trade deadline. Dumping Marion, in particular, would clear $9 million for their summer 2013 shopping spree. Vince Carter ($3 million), who was surprisingly guaranteed for two more seasons this summer, is another potential exile.
Meanwhile, the road between those extremes is pure triage: One that maintains a competitive team that can possibly return to the playoffs, but also portends a quick exit if and when they get there. Throw in Dirk's knee problems in training camp, and they may be on the outside looking in.
Prediction: 43-39, 3rd in Southwest Division, 9th in Western Conference
washington wizards
Go through the bad franchise checklist, and this one pretty much ticks all the boxes:
• Young players showing no signs of development, even after several years? Check.
• Firing the coach midseason and hiring his top assistant, then figuring what the heck and giving the gig to the assistant full-time? Check.
• Using all their future cap space to trade for mid-tier veterans with cap-clogging deals? Check.
• Short-circuiting multiple rebuilding projects for quick fixes? Check.
• Andray Blatche? Check.
Yet one of the joys of being bad in the NBA is that the league will keep lobbing lottery picks your way until you have almost no choice but to become decent for a few years. The Wizards tried to forestall this fate a few years ago by trading a lottery pick to Minnesota for Mike Miller and Randy Foye, and it worked for a while. But after a few more lotto picks and another move that's a direct homage to the Miller-Foye deal, the Wizards may accidentally find themselves in the playoff race this season.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Wizards' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Certainly, the Wizards won't be the comedy routine they were at this point a year ago, when they had quite possibly the lowest collective basketball IQ in the history of the game. Washington sent out several of the dimmer bulbs from that group, with the result that Jordan Crawford is the only remaining player who routinely makes you want to smash light fixtures and throw cutlery.
Nonetheless, the Wizards' inability to develop their players is going to remain a story for as long as they have talented first-rounders stalling out after a year. John Wall is entering his third season and still can't make a jump shot or set up his man for a screen; Crawford is in Year 3 and has no idea yet what a good shot is or why it might be desirable to take one. After the failures of Nick Young, JaVale McGee and Blatche, among others, this is getting a bit repetitive.
The 'Zards have had a few successes, however, most notably with French center Kevin Seraphin. He came to Washington raw but showed some refined skill as a starter late in the season, with better post moves and an improved mid-range J. This is incredibly encouraging news for Wiz fans, proving that it's at least theoretically possible for players to improve here. Trevor Booker also showed progress as energetic combo forward, and stood out amid this team's general malaise by hustling and playing hard every night.
Hopefully some of that will rub off on Chris Singleton and Jan Vesely, a pair of 2011 first-round picks who struggled mightily as rookies. Vesely, in particular, seems cut from the fine recent tradition of athletic young Wizards with no idea how to play basketball.
Washington fired Flip Saunders and hired top assistant Randy Wittman, and while Wittman got more results out of these guys (including Seraphin) than Saunders, his past track record in Minnesota is less than encouraging. The same can be said for general manager Ernie Grunfeld, who somehow got a contract extension despite a four-year stretch where the Wizards went 88-224.
So enjoy the sugar high of playoff contention this year, Washington. Chances are it will wear off quickly.
NeneHarry E. Walker/MCT/Getty ImagesWith Nene in the lineup, a laughable Wizards roster took a step forward.
You really want to know?
The Wizards shattered records for unintentional comedy in the first half of the season, when their serial mental errors were guaranteed to provoke at least one hilarious YouTube clip a game. Andray Blatche showed up out of shape and barely tried, JaVale McGee showed freakish athleticism when he wasn't committing ridiculous goaltends or running the wrong way, and Nick Young and Jordan Crawford seemingly competed to see who could launch the most questionable contested jumper early in the clock.
Even the old guys weren't immune, as Rashard Lewis played with "get me out of here" zeal for 28 games before shutting things down.
In the midst of all this was Wall, the top overall pick in 2011, who showed disturbingly little progress at running the point in his second season. A tremendous talent, his primary skill remains flying down the court at warp speed in transition; in halfcourt situations, he's hardly developed at all.
W-L: 20-46 (Pythagorean W-L: 20-46)Offensive Efficiency: 97.8 (28th)Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (24th)Pace Factor:95.1 (7th)Highest PER: Nene (18.65)
Washington also leaned heavily on three rookies, all of whom were found wanting -- Singleton, Vesely and Shelvin Mack each produced replacement-level output and combined to play over 3,000 minutes between them.
The Wizards fired Flip Saunders and got better later in the year largely by subtraction. The trade of McGee for Nene provided a strong pick-and-roll defender, but even more important was the fact that they stopped playing Blatche and Lewis, who were killing them. With Seraphin emerging too, the Wizards suddenly had a real frontcourt. Washington won its final six games and eight of its final 10. While we tend to take April win streaks with a grain of salt, a few of the wins came against teams that were actually trying -- most notably a win over Milwaukee that basically killed the Bucks' playoff hopes.
Big picture, however, this was a bad team, and in particular a bad offensive team. The Wizards finished 28th in offensive efficiency, with their inability to shoot being the biggest stumbling block. Washington was a quasi-respectable 21st in 2-point shooting percentage, but rarely took or made 3s and didn't draw fouls. The Wizards were 28th in 3-point percentage and 23rd in 3-point frequency, as Wall's chronic inability to shoot (3-for-42 on 3-pointers. Not a typo.) wasn't offset by any particularly prolific shooting from another spot. One hopes Bradley Beal can help fix this.
The other part of the equation, surprisingly, is that the Wizards also didn't draw fouls. They ranked just 25th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, mostly because few teams loved taking long 2-pointers more than this one did. As a result, the Wizards were 28th in secondary percentage, and thus 28th in TS%, and thus 28th in offensive efficiency.
Defensively there were bursts of competence, especially late in the year. Most notably, Washington was second in blocks, rejecting 7.79 percent of opponent attempts. While McGee played a big role in that, there were six other Wizards who blocked at least 30 shots -- including, amazingly, 57 from point guard Wall.
The glass proved their Achilles' heel, however, as the Wizards were just 26th in defensive rebound rate. They also fouled far more than the league average, and didn't offset this with any notable strength aside from shot-blocking.
Bradley BealBrian Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe Wizards used the No. 3 overall pick on Bradley Beal, looking to fill a need for shooting.
Enough with this rebuilding stuff. It's time to go all-in for the No. 8 seed again:
Drafted Bradley Beal and Tomas Satoransky: So far, so good. I'm not sure Beal was the third-best player in the draft, but he absolutely filled a need for shooting on this team, and he should be able to start and contribute immediately. Satoransky is a big guard from the Czech Republic whom they'll stash overseas for another year or two.
Traded Rashard Lewis and a second-round pick to New Orleans for Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor: This was the stinker of a deal that will mess up Washington's cap for the next two years, all in the name of winning 40 games rather than 30. Lewis was only guaranteed $13 million this year but the Wizards took back $22 million in 2013-14 salary, effectively killing any chance of being a player in free agency next summer or of using cap space in any number of other creative ways. (Here's one alternative; They could have cut Lewis and been $9 million under the cap once they used the amnesty provision on Andray Blatche; bid on Elton Brand in the amnesty auction for $3 million, and got Dorell Wright from Golden State for free for another $5 million. They'd still have acquired two forwards of roughly the same quality, except they'd have $22 million more in 2013-14 cap).
It would be one thing if these were the players to put Washington over the top, but of course they aren't. Okafor is a halfway decent center who struggled physically last season and will be playing out of position as a power forward; Ariza is a very good defensive player with a shaky jumper, and one whose shot selection will immediately trigger Nick Young flashbacks. It was a shortcut, plain and simple.
Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche: Can't argue with this one. Washington's decision to extend Blatche two years ago blew up on them to the tune of $23 million, which is how much the Wizards will be paying him not to play for them over the next three years.
Signed A.J. Price for one year, minimum: Washington needed another backup point guard after Mack disappointed a year ago. Price is more of a shoot-first type, which isn't exactly what's needed here, but at least it didn't cost them much.
Re-signed Cartier Martin for one year, minimum: Martin played well for Washington in D-League call-ups each of the past two seasons, and his long-range shooting is a welcome weapon on a team that's still short-handed in this department.
Let Maurice Evans go, signed Martell Webster for one year, $1.6 million: Again, the Wizards were looking to address the shooting deficit. Webster has struggled with physical problems the past couple years and never shot as well as expected, but based on what was available this was a pretty decent gamble.
Signed Jannero Pargo for one year, minimum: An emergency measure after they lost Wall for the start of the season, Pargo played well for Atlanta last season but obviously his combination of age (32) and track record make him a somewhat risky investment. That said, this was by far the best point guard candidate left on the market and Washington did well to get him so inexpensively. I'd argue he was a better solution than Price, in fact.
John WallNed Dishman/NBAE/Getty ImagesBarring a repeat of last year's shenanigans, the Wizards will likely walk off the court with more wins.
Washington's decision to short-circuit the rebuilding process a year early will at least pay some short-term benefits, as the Wizards are likely to be genuinely competitive and with just a bit of good fortune could find themselves back in the playoffs. The problem isn't that they'll be halfway decent, but that this may represent the high-water mark in the current rebuilding program.
As for this year, you have to like that frontcourt. Nene, Okafor, Seraphin and Booker combine to form one of the league's better four-man units; I actually ran the projection with Seraphin starting ahead of Okafor, because he projects to have slightly better numbers, but the impact is small either way. The tricky part is that three of the four bigs are natural centers, and the Wizards may find themselves wrong-footed when opponents play small.
Defensively, this team should be above the league average based on talent, but it's incumbent on Wittman to get that level of performance from them. Nene is a great pick-and-roll defender, Ariza is a solid wing stopper, and Seraphin, Wall, Singleton and Okafor all are plus defenders.
On the perimeter, however, Washington looks much shakier. Beal is a rookie coming off one year of college, and not a particularly impressive one. While he may be able to start from day one, that's more because Crawford is the alternative and the 'Zards desperately need shooting. Ariza is a negative offensively, especially when he goes into hero mode, and backing him up is the offensively limited Singleton.
Backup point guard, where Mack, Pargo and Price will battle for the gig, is also a concern … especially with one of those three needing to masquerade as a starter for the first month or so while Wall recovers from a knee injury. That injury alone projects to cost Washington nearly two games in the standings.
Ultimately, I'm pegging this team to narrowly miss the playoffs based on its offense, which should improve from last season's 28th ranking but not enough to put the Wizards above .500. Washington will be potent in transition -- Ariza and Nene will happily run with Wall once he comes back -- but two of the three wings can't shoot and there isn't a go-to offensive player on the roster, which will result in lots of packed-in defenses when the Wizards can't get out in transition. For a quick sugar high, I'm not sure this will be much of a rush.
Prediction: 38-44, 3rd in Southeast, tied for 9th in Eastern Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:26 (thirteen years ago)
It was a landmark moment in the history of the Warriors -- a chorus of boos raining down on owner Joe Lacob during a ceremony to retire Chris Mullin's jersey. It had less to do with Lacob in particular than with the general frustration of a fan base that's suffered for two solid decades with no relief in sight.
Last season's Warriors had offered hope that things might change, right up until they enacted one of the most brazen tanking strategies in recent memory. That's when the locals -- who have seen one playoff team in 18 years, in a league in which more than half the teams qualify -- finally snapped.
Yet the big picture in Golden State is far more encouraging. The new management has made some mistakes, and we'll discuss a few of them in a moment, but one shouldn't lose sight of all the genuine improvements since the disastrous Chris Cohan-Robert Rowell years. Basketball people are making decisions again, ownership is far more engaged and accountable, and the franchise appears to have snapped out of its decadelong habit of eating its own young.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Warriors' roster. Player Profiles Insider
And, unbelievably, it appears the Warriors might field a team that's interested in playing defense. The Warriors showed improvement on that end last season before they started tanking, and thanks to a trade for defensive rock Andrew Bogut, Golden State could become a league-average outfit at that end. The last time that happened was under P.J. Carlesimo in 1998-99.
Unfortunately, Lacob's tenure so far has shared two weaknesses with the previous regime: a tendency to want to win news conferences, and a questionable understanding of the salary cap. The former doesn't necessarily affect the product on the court, as long as Lacob can restrain his inner James Dolan, but the second is a bit more worrisome.
A series of iffy moves has tied up Golden State's cap for at least the next two years, most notably the decision to exercise the amnesty rights on Charlie Bell instead of Andris Biedrins. Last season's snafu came in the form of a Stephen Jackson-Richard Jefferson swap that effectively saw the Warriors pay $11 million (and give up the same in cap space) for the rights to Festus Ezeli. Not good. Between those two moves, Golden State's payroll will be about $20 million higher in 2013-14 than it should be, with essentially no difference in the quality of the product on the court.
But all that will quickly be forgiven if the Warriors put a team on the floor that competes and avoids further tanking shenanigans. Despite some missteps, there's a decent core here, with solid depth, crazy shooting and a dominant defensive anchor. It's not clear whether that will be enough to break the playoff drought, but it should at least return the Warriors to the ranks of respectable basketball teams.
Injured Golden State Warriors AP Photo/Jeff ChiuWith injuries up and down the roster, the Warriors sank to third to last in the West by season's end.
For two-thirds of the season, the Warriors hung in a tough Western Conference playoff race despite multiple injuries to point guard Stephen Curry that essentially ruined his season. With an improved bench and, more notably, a few players willing to play defense (Brandon Rush and Dominic McGuire in particular), the Warriors were 17-21 on March 12, having just beaten the Clippers on the road, when the team traded Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson. (Jackson later would be rerouted to San Antonio in the Jefferson deal referenced above.)
It was a solid trade in the sense that it finally got the Warriors a real center in Bogut. But since he was out for the season and Ellis was leading the team in scoring, it also effectively crushed any chance the Warriors had of making the playoffs. Further moves reinforced that point, as Golden State embarked on a brazen tanking operation designed to avoid ceding its first-round pick to Utah; the Warriors would keep it if it fell in the top seven picks, which required a concerted effort to pile up losses. By finishing 6-22 with a crew that included luminaries such as Jeremy Tyler, Mikki Moore and Mickell Gladness, the Warriors juuuuuust finished in a tie for the seventh-worst record, and then sweated out a coin toss with Toronto and the lottery itself to land at No. 7.
W-L: 23-43 (Pythagorean W-L: 24-42)Offensive Efficiency: 103.1 (11th)Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (27th)Pace Factor: 94.7 (10th)Highest PER: Stephen Curry (21.23)
Curry played only 26 games and was never totally right when he played, leaving concerns that his ankles can't take the pounding of a full season. However, positive stories abounded. Rookie Klay Thompson rebounded from a slow start to show a lot of promise as a shooter and scorer. Wing Brandon Rush had a career season, second-round pick Charles Jenkins proved a keeper and David Lee recovered from a rough first season in the Bay Area to put up more Lee-like numbers. Mark Jackson, in his first year as coach, kept his players' respect and got reasonably solid efforts from them.
But, this being Golden State, defense was still a problem. It was worsened by the late-season tankfest, but at no point was this a quality defensive squad. The Warriors finished 26th in efficiency and, plagued by a hole at the center position, landed dead last in defensive rebound rate at a pathetic 69.1 percent. A healthy Bogut will change that in a hot second.
Worst Defensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12Team DRRGolden State 69.1Sacramento 70.5New Jersey 70.7Charlotte 70.9Washington 70.9League average 73.0
The Warriors also had the league's fourth-highest foul rate, were 28th in opponent secondary percentage and were below average at forcing turnovers. There was no aspect of defense at which they were good, only those at which they were comparatively less bad.
Offensively, they showed more promise, particularly with their shooting. Even with Curry playing only a minor role, the Warriors were second in the NBA in 3-point shooting at 38.8 percent. They also shot 2s better than the league average and had the league's fourth-lowest turnover rate.
But two factors held them back. The first (more minor) one was that they didn't draw fouls, finishing just 29th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Even their inside players, such as Lee, tended to be more shot-makers than foul-drawers, and the perimeter guys all wanted to shoot jumpers.
The real problem was a lack of second shots. Golden State was not only the worst defensive rebounding team, but it also nearly matched that feat at the offensive end, as only a historic effort by the Celtics prevented the Warriors from being league-worst at both ends. As a result, the Warriors were fifth in true shooting percentage and had the fourth-lowest turnover rate ... yet were only 11th in offensive efficiency.
Their woes on the boards marked the third season in a row the Warriors were last in the NBA in overall rebound rate -- worse even than their league-worst numbers the previous season. Golden State has been either 29th or 30th in rebound rate for an astounding six straight seasons.
To which one retorts, once again: Andrew Bogut.
Harrison BarnesJerry Lai/US PresswireGolden State kept its draft pick away from the Jazz and used it to take Harrison Barnes No. 7 overall.
Golden State continued building out its bench in the hopes of making a playoff run behind a healthy Bogut and Curry. While the offseason thankfully lacked the cap silliness of the previous two, one item to watch is the luxury tax. The Warriors are about $1 million over the threshold and might calve a secondary player at the trade deadline to slide underneath.
Drafted Harrison Barnes, Festus Ezeli, Draymond Green and Ognjen Kuzmic: The first three all should contribute this season. Barnes had his detractors, but he is big and can shoot, which should at the very least make him a reasonable facsimile of the departed Dorell Wright. Green -- a crafty, undersized 4 who can pass, shoot and rebound but will struggle on D -- was one of my favorite players in the draft. And Ezeli was more of a straight need pick; he is a backup center and will never be anything more than that, but he adds another big defender who can rebound to support Bogut.
Traded Dorell Wright to Philadelphia for Jarrett Jack: A three-way deal with the Sixers and Hornets reshaped the Warriors' lineup to get another guard in the mix. While Jack was a Fluke Rule player and is expected to decline this season, Golden State had a crowd at small forward and needed a reliable option should Curry's ankles disintegrate into a fine powder.
Let Nate Robinson and Dominic McGuire go; signed Carl Landry for two years, $8 million: I'm not as crazy about this move for two reasons. First, Landry has a player option for the second year, which means if he plays well, he's gone, and if he plays poorly, the Warriors are stuck with him. But the second reason is he's almost a perfect replication of David Lee's pros and cons, albeit in muted colors. Landry is a very poor defender and rebounder, but he can hit faceup jumpers and score in the paint. In other words, the Warriors can't ever play Landry and Lee at the same time, because they'll give up about 800 points per possession. As a straight value proposition, it's not the worst move, but that's as heartily as I can endorse it.
Re-signed Brandon Rush for two years, $8 million: Rush had a very strong 2011-12 season, and this was a reasonable value, even though he has an option for the second year just like Landry. But between his defense and 3-point shooting, Rush is a genuinely valuable player, one who likely will start if Harrison Barnes proves unready.
Golden State WarriorsRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesA revamped roster will try to push Golden State into the playoff field for the first time in five years.
Can I get X-rays of Bogut's and Curry's ankles, and then make my forecast? The health of those two almost certainly will dictate whether the Warriors can snap their five-year playoff funk or whether they'll spend another year in the lottery. (Sans pick, this time, unless they tank even harder; Utah gets the Warriors' draft pick unless it's in the top six.)
Bogut might not be ready for the start of the season in the wake of last year's ankle trouble, and I've penciled in Curry to miss some games as well given his recurring frailty. Nonetheless, the Warriors look like a decent threat in the West if Bogut can play at least 65 games, because he so ably addresses the two failings -- rebounding and interior defense -- that have plagued this team for a decade. The Warriors also have a much better bench than in recent years, although Bogut's position is the weakest link in that second unit.
Besides Bogut, the other reason to like this team is all the shooting. Curry and Thompson are knock-down 3-point shooters who likely form the best shooting backcourt in basketball. Around them, Barnes, Rush and Jefferson all are strong 3-point threats, Lee, Jack and Landry are accomplished midrange shooters, and Green can stroke it, too. Nobody will be surprised if this club leads the league in 3-point shooting, and that could open plenty of room for Bogut and Lee to operate inside.
Unfortunately, Bogut won't have a ton of help at the other end, and on the nights he's out of the lineup, the Warriors' defense is likely to be as ugly as ever. Lee, Landry, Curry, Thompson and Green all are somewhere between bad and awful at this end, while Barnes is likely to take his lumps as well. That puts a cap on how good this team's defense can be, regardless of Bogut's dominance.
Sum it all up, and you could get a team that could easily make the playoffs, especially if Curry and Bogut stay in the lineup all season. Could. Unfortunately, I have to project what's likely rather than what's merely possible. And the most likely scenario is that Golden State's two stars miss just enough time to keep the Warriors out of the money for another season.
Prediction: 40-42, 3rd in Pacific, 10th in Western Conference
cleveland cavaliers
No, the post-LeBron era hasn't been much fun. Cleveland followed up its miserable 2010-11 campaign with one nearly as bad, showing a brief burst of competence early in the season before going off the rails once Anderson Varejao was hurt.
Nonetheless, the light at the end of the tunnel is visible, and this season Cavs fans should get their first reminder of what it feels like to watch a real NBA team. Cleveland had to unwind some bad contracts picked up during the James years, but with Baron Davis' contract off the cap number under the amnesty provision and Baron Davis departed, the last of them is gone.
Cleveland will have the lowest payroll in the league this season in terms of players on the floor (although not overall, once you factor in what they still owe Davis), and the Cavs' cap situation is now as clean as that of any team in basketball. The Cavs will have at least $20 million in cap space next summer, as general manager Chris Grant and his troops have shown tremendous discipline in avoiding quick fixes and focusing on the long term.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Cavs' roster. Player Profiles Insider
One of those long-term moves was getting a first-round pick from the Clippers for Davis, which unexpectedly turned into a winning lottery ticket and the rights to Kyrie Irving. Irving is a star in the making, and the Cavs may have snagged another backcourt ace to go with him in rookie Dion Waiters. In between, Cleveland has chosen selectively but wisely to amass its roster, finding an Alonzo Gee here, picking up a Jon Leuer there, and somehow procuring a first-round pick from Sacramento in the Omri Casspi-J.J. Hickson trade.
But let's not kid ourselves -- there's a lot of ugly along this path. Cavs fans have seen heavy doses of players like Samardo Samuels, Daniel Gibson and Manny Harris the past two seasons, and they probably aren't done seeing replacement-level rotation players in their midst. One still wonders if they have the right general as well, after witnessing the team's spectacularly limp defensive efforts down the stretch of last season.
It's easier to take, however, when you have two dynamic young guards and a chance of winning every night. The Cavs, at least, finally have that.
Kyrie IrvingDavid Richard/US PresswireKyrie Irving, fresh off his Rookie of the Year performance, still has a tough task ahead.
It started off pretty well. After 24 games, the Cavs were 10-14 with an eight-game homestand coming up, Irving was already a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year, and Cleveland was looking very much alive in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
How quickly it fell to pieces. They lost the next game in overtime to Milwaukee, Varejao was lost for the season, and things quickly degenerated from there. The Cavs went 5-22 over their final 27 games, openly mailing it in on defense while trotting out a nightly parade of ex-D-Leaguers. This can partly be excused by the Cavs going into full-blown tank mode later in the year -- Cleveland traded Ramon Sessions to the Lakers for Luke Walton to get a future first-round pick, and once Irving missed time, they had gone from two NBA point guards to zero.
But other problems were visible the whole time. As you can see below in the '11-12 stats chart, the Cavs were a bottom-five team in both offense and defense and were fortunate to win as many games as they did -- Cleveland's scoring margin suggested they should go 15-51, which would have been the league's second-worst record.
Worst shooting percentage, 2011-12Team 2-Pt% Overall FG%Charlotte .439 .414Cleveland .446 .422New Jersey .457 .425Minnesota .469 .433Sacramento .471 .436League avg. .477 .448
Offensively, the Cavs suffered from an amazing inability to make shots. Cleveland was 29th in both 2-point shooting percentage and overall shooting percentage, and in a league with the Bobcats you can't do worse than that. Another standout feature was all the rejections -- 7.6 percent of the Cavs' shots were blocked, the second-most in the league; unlike the league leader in that category (Denver), Cleveland wasn't attacking the basket with notable frequency. It just ate leather when it did.
On defense, the Cavs suffered from a lack of shot-blocking and athleticism in the frontcourt, especially once Varejao went out. Cleveland was last in blocks, rejecting only 4.82 percent of opponent offerings (see chart). In a related story, the Cavs were the league's second-worst defense on "first shots," with only a decent defensive rebound rate raising their overall rank to 27th. Breaking it down, the Cavs were abysmal at virtually every individual phase of defense, although they didn't foul at a high rate.
Fewest blocked shots, 2011-12Team % of Opp. FGA blockedCleveland 4.82New Jersey 4.91Minnesota 5.18Orlando 5.20New York 5.27League avg. 6.26
The horror show on defense extended to the perimeter, we should point out, as the two point guards (Irving and Sessions) were routinely torched and forced the rest of the defense into rotations. Losing Varejao, one of the league's top pick-and-roll defenders, was so hurtful in part because now opposing pick-and-rolls attacked two awful defenders.
While we're dealing with bad news, we should recount a few other tales. Casspi had a somewhat disastrous cameo as the starting small forward and had to be replaced, and while Irving was a revelation, fourth overall pick Tristan Thompson had a disappointing rookie season. His need to stop and gather on every catch nullified several fine dishes from Irving and Sessions, as did his inability to make free throws.
Looking deeper, the Cavs didn't seem to play that hard, frankly, and there were some bizarre personnel interludes -- most notably the five-game stint for Mychel Thompson as the starting shooting guard.
Despite those woes, there was some good news from this season. The Cavs rescued Gee from his D-League/10-day purgatory and he became a credible two-way small forward, Irving won the Rookie of the Year award, and the Sessions trade gives the Cavs more assets going forward -- Cleveland has two first-round and two second-round picks in the 2013 draft and could end up with three first-round picks in 2015.
Dion WaitersBrian Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesRookie Dion Waiters could develop into the backcourt complement to Irving the Cavs need.
The Cavs could have plunged into free agency but elected to keep their powder dry for another season. Instead, the most notable move was that veteran shooting guard Anthony Parker retired. Bear in mind that Cleveland can now use cap space during the season to take on more assets, particularly from teams looking to purge salary for luxury tax purposes. Check out these moves:
Drafted Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller: Waiters came off the bench in college but showed major potential as a slashing scorer at the pro level, one who has ballhandling and passing skills and could prove a potent backcourt partner with Irving. Cleveland desperately needed another player who can get them some easy baskets and he should help the offense immediately.
HOLLINGER'S 11-12 STATS
W-L: 21-45 (Pythagorean W-L: 15-51)Offensive Efficiency: 98.1 (27th)Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (26th)Pace Factor: 94.0 (12th)Highest PER: Kyrie Irving (21.49)
The pick from L.A. in the Sessions trade was used on Zeller, which again solved a need -- this time addressing the size and shot-blocking problems on defense. While Zeller isn't exactly Dikembe Mutombo, he gives Cleveland a true 7-footer and he has some offensive skills; his presence should allow Thompson to play full-time at the 4.
Let Semih Erden go, signed Jon Leuer: Erden couldn't play; Leuer can. Picked off of waivers after Houston let him go, Leuer has a non-guaranteed deal, but he played quite well for Milwaukee in limited minutes last season and it would be a shock if he didn't make the team.
Re-signed Luke Harangody for one year, $1.05 million: Your guess is as good as mine. Harangody's production has consistenly been sub-replacement level, so I don't understand the need to give him guaranteed money. Or any money.
Let Antawn Jamison go, signed C.J. Miles for two years, $4.5 million: A value pickup to fill in the wing rotation, Miles is more comfortable as a 3 than a 2, but at either spot he's likely to be the go-to scorer for Cleveland's second unit. That's really his one skill, so it's an inexpensive fit, especially since the second year isn't guaranteed.
Traded D.J. Kennedy to Memphis for Jeremy Pargo, a 2014 second-round pick and cash: This is the type of move you can make when you're under the cap -- getting paid to take a bad contract off another team's hands. The Grizzlies dumped Pargo, paid his salary and gave the Cavs a pick to take him; Kennedy had a non-guaranteed deal and was waived on arrival. The twist is that Cavs may actually need to play Pargo, depending on how disastrously Daniel Gibson performs, as backup point guard looms as a huge weakness.
Re-signed Alonzo Gee for three years, $9.8 million: That Gee would re-sign was never in doubt since he was a restricted free agent; the two sides finally agreed on a fair deal for the likely starter at small forward, keeping one of the few Cavs with legit defensive chops.
Anderson VarejaoDavid Richard/US PresswireThe Cavs would be just excited as Anderson Varejao if the Brazilian big man can stay healthy.
In a word, "brighter." Irving and Thompson should be better in their second seasons, Varejao should play more than he did a year ago, and rookies Waiters and Zeller fill in important gaps that plagued the Cavs a year ago.
Obviously the most important part is Irving, who I'm projecting to make the All-Star team this season. Offensively he has all the skills and should only continue to develop them, but it's also important that he demonstrate some willingness to stop the opponent. That's especially true with another greenhorn playing alongside him in Waiters, who is also undersized. Perimeter defense could plague this team all season, particularly if the Cavs don't upgrade their effort.
On the other hand, replacing Jamison with a pretty much any warm body will improve the defense some, and the Cavs' parade of replacement-level frontcourt players seemingly has come to an end with the additions of Zeller and Leuer and the return to health of Varejao.
With all this said, they still have some major questions. Can Byron Scott get these guys to play hard on defense? Is Thompson any good? Will Varejao stay healthy after two straight injury years? Can they find a backup point guard?
Given all those issues, it would really require a perfect storm for this team to make the playoffs. Instead, Cavs fans should rejoice in the mere fact that we're discussing this possibility. It's only Year 3 of the post-LeBron nuclear winter, and one shouldn't expect a big payoff just yet. But this will be a competitive team, one that should be particularly improved at the offensive end.
Prediction: 34-48, 4th in Central Division, 11th in Eastern Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:27 (thirteen years ago)
sacramento kings
The Sacramento Kings don't know whether they're coming or going. Literally. But figuratively, too, as this organization bounces from one cringe-worthy transaction to another and the league keeps dropping talented lottery picks on them as compensation.
Alas, the Kings' financial woes and related search for a permanent home may be having the unintended consequence of enforcing some much-needed salary cap discipline. While a couple of horrifying deals remain on the books, Sacramento's cap is in excellent shape going forward -- particularly if you price in a likely amnesty of either John Salmons or Francisco Garcia.
Nonetheless, good management starts at the top, and the Kings' ownership is as weak as any in the league. Financially, the Maloofs are broke and clinging desperately to the life raft of an idea that somebody will pay them to move the team and let them keep control.
Organizationally, they just don't have a clue, showing a bizarre loyalty to general manager Geoff Petrie despite a series of epic mistakes and maintaining a status quo that clearly isn't working.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Kings' roster. Player Profiles Insider
The Maloofs' misguided loyalty extends to coaches. They extended the deal of coach Keith Smart through 2013-14, which I guess they felt they had to do because his 20-33 mark as their coach represents the franchise's high-water point of the past half-decade; previously they'd extended Paul Westphal in similar fashion, only to fire him seven games into the 2011-12 season. Petrie's got next -- his contract expires at the end of this season, and the smart money says the Maloofs won't have the stones to change generals despite a six-year playoff drought and the near-universal consensus that this is among league's worst-run franchises.
While the front office's errors have been notable and regular, the financial constraints also have been heavy at times. Last season's prime example was the club waiving J.J. Hickson in March, partly because he hadn't played well but mostly to save some money by having another team claim him on waivers. That's not the only yard sale the Kings have held in recent years, and it won't be the last.
Bu the nice thing about the NBA is that if you're a bad team, the league will keep lobbing lottery picks your way until you become halfway decent. Sure, they blew one of them on Jimmer Fredette and seem intent on wasting others via what appears to be a nonexistent player development strategy, but the tap keeps flowing. With DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson and now Thomas Robinson on hand, Sacramento has some legitimate talent. Throw in a couple pieces the Kings' front office genuinely found on its own -- Marcus Thornton, Isaiah Thomas and Aaron Brooks -- and they could have a decent team.
They won't, of course, because the support system just isn't there, but it's at least theoretically possible that with another lottery pick or two sent their way and more experience from the current group, the Kings could become pretty good in spite of themselves. By the time that happens, they may even have an owner with actual money and an arena built sometime after Columbus landed.
DeMarcus CousinsRocky Widner/Getty ImagesPaul Westphal didn't hang around long last season, ousted after a conflict with DeMarcus Cousins.
It was your typical goofy Kings campaign, one that got off to a rollicking start when Westphal and Cousins began butting heads days into the season. Westphal suspended Cousins, Petrie saw an opening to throw Westphal under the bus for the team's continued underperformance, and within days Keith Smart (hired over the summer as an assistant) was installed as the new head coach and immediately given a two-year deal.
It was as weird in real life as it sounds on paper, and the upshot was that the Kings changed coaches just seven games into the season. Perhaps not surprisingly, their player development approach continues going sideways. While Cousins showed genuine progress under Smart, Tyreke Evans' career is plowing steadily in reverse, and nobody on the team seems to have any idea how to play defense.
That last item also points an arrow at Smart heading into this season. A coach who theoretically has a defensive rep, his teams have finished 24th, 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency in his three turns as a head coach. Sacramento has the talent to be much, much better than this, but it's an open debate whether Smart is the guy to coax it out of them.HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 22-44 (Pythagorean W-L: 19-47)Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (22nd)Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (28th)Pace Factor: 97.3 (1st)Highest PER: DeMarcus Cousins (21.72)As for more tangible problems, those included a lack of passing and shooting. The Kings were 29th in assist rate, with a dime on just 51.0 percent of their made baskets, and the Kings were also 29th in 3-point shooting at 31.6 percent. Alas, this didn't stop them from hoisting 3s slightly more often than the league average, with Evans and Donte Greene the most egregious offenders (204 tries between them, just 45 makes).
The only player to shoot 3s at a decent clip was point guard Isaiah Thomas, the surprise of the draft with the 60th pick and one who offset the flaming train wreck that was Jimmer Fredette at No. 10 overall. Thomas' development also finally convinced the Kings to stop playing Evans at point guard, another positive development.
The Kings weren't particularly good at shooting 2s either, and didn't draw that many fouls; as a result they were just 27th in true shooting percentage. However, this team's saving grace is that it made up in quantity what it lacked in quality. Between a low turnover rate and the league's seventh-best offensive rebound rate, Sacramento ranked third in the league in shot attempts per possession. Had they shot with any accuracy, they would have ranked much better than their 22nd position in offensive efficiency.
While the offense was bad, the defense was orders of magnitude worse. Sacramento often lazed back in transition, with Cousins and Evans the worst offenders, and in the halfcourt the effort was inconsistent at best -- again, key players like Thornton and Evans were among the worst offenders.
Worst field goal defense, 2011-12Team Opp. 2% Opp. FG% Opp. TS%SAC 51.0 47.6 55.1CHA 50.6 47.5 54.9NJ 50.0 47.2 54.9CLE 49.8 46.7 54.4DET 49.2 46.2 54.3As a result, the Kings were dead last in field-goal defense. They actually hit the triple crown, finishing last in 2-point defense, overall field goal defense, and opponent TS%. In a league that included the Bobcats, this is a staggering accomplishment (see chart). Oddly, they didn't give up an inordinate number of free throws or 3s; they just gave up so many easy 2s that they still finished last.
Moreover, despite the presence of Cousins and Jason Thompson (who had a nice year), the Kings were just 29th in defensive rebound rate. Again, given the talent on the team this was a completely unacceptable performance, although it also reflects a shortage of frontcourt depth: Travis Outlaw often served as the backup 4, and it was as bad in practice as it sounds in theory. The addition of Thomas Robinson and the return of Chuck Hayes may help offset this shortcoming.
Aaron BrooksRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesAaron Brooks returns from China, seeking the form that made him the most improved player in 2010.
With little motivation and less financial wiggle room, the Kings once again were unable to do a whole lot. As NBA.com's John Schuhmann pointed out, only three teams return more than 80 percent of last season's minutes -- the two finalists, Miami and Oklahoma City, and the lowly Kings.
One item of business does remain, however, as Sacramento ponders whether to extend Evans and if so at what price. From here it seems they're better off waiting, but given the Kings' history of irrational early extensions, this situation bears watching.
Drafted Thomas Robinson: The Kings got the last of the sure-ish things with the fifth overall pick, although Robinson replicates a lot of Cousins' strengths and weaknesses -- he's a brutish rebounder and physical force, but not much of a shooter or high-polish finisher. At worst, however, he'll help flesh out a frontcourt rotation that lacked a genuine backup 4 last season, and as with Cousins he'll likely get plenty of put-backs from his teammates' bricks.
Sold Orlando Johnson to Indiana for cash: Yard sale, anyone? A rebuilding team holding the 36th pick in the draft nonetheless sold it, because that's what the Kings have to do these days to make ends meet.
Traded future draft pick to Toronto for James Johnson: The Kings gave Toronto a second-round pick in 2014 for the rights to Johnson, which would be a solid deal in most circumstances. Johnson is an improving combo forward who should give this team a bit more of a defensive presence, with the bulk of his playing time likely coming as the backup small forward. The question is whether this deal will be any more than a one-year rental; Johnson is a restricted free agent next summer and it's an open question, as always, whether the Kings will have either the willingness or the ability to pay him.
Signed Aaron Brooks for two years, $6.5 million: Sacramento shored up its backup point guard spot with Brooks, who played in China last season but had productive stints as a change-of-pace point guard in Houston. Brooks replicates a lot of this team's worst tendencies -- he's a shoot-first point guard with limited court vision -- but even on his worst night he's a major upgrade on Jimmer.
Marcus Thornton, Tyreke EvansKelley L Cox/US PresswireMarcus Thornton and Tyreke Evans hope for an increasing number of chances to celebrate this season.
That starting five doesn't look so shabby, does it? Throw in a healthier Chuck Hayes, and newcomers Johnson, Robinson and Brooks, and the bench would appear to be markedly improved as well. At the very least, there's no reason to play Fredette or Outlaw this season, and John Salmons' time should be dramatically curtailed as well.
A few factors should conspire against them, however. Most prominent among them is the team-wide indifference at the defensive end, Hayes excepted. Of the Kings' five starters, there isn't one of them whom you'd call an above-average defender, although Evans could be if his effort improved. The rampant gambling and cherry-picking of wings Thornton and Evans constantly leaves the others at a disadvantage, while the transition D suffers because of the former two and because Cousins just doesn't move well up and down the court. Also, both point guards are woefully undersized.
Two positives mitigate against that. First, young teams generally get a bit better at defense with more time together. Second, the bench should be considerably better. Johnson could provide a real impact with his athleticism, although his gambling tendencies may only be magnified with this group, and Robinson may prove helpful here too.
Nonetheless, we're probably looking at a bottom-five defense again, and the offense is just a middle-of-the-pack group. They'll get baskets at the rim and in transition, and Cousins will wear out some opponents under the rim. But it's a roster full of me-first gunners, sort of a West Coast version of recent Washington Wizards teams, and we all saw how that worked out. The lack of passing ability (or even willingness) up and down the roster is magnified by the lack of shooting, although adding Brooks and subtracting Greene should help their 3-point percentage.
Meanwhile, there's little reason to think the organization will be of any help as the year goes on. The owners are hanging on to the team by their fingernails and more focused on relocation options than the on-court product, and the ossified front office seems similarly focused on self-preservation. Even if they found money to make a move, it's questionable whether said move would prove helpful.
Sum it all up and the best news we can offer is that this year's team should be less awful than past editions. If Smart can engender some genuine defensive effort they may even hang around on the fringes of the playoff race for a while. More likely, the combination of average offense and awful defense leaves them well out of the money.
Prediction: 32-50, 4th in Pacific Division, 11th in Western Conference
no hornets
What a difference a year makes. The Hornets looked hopeless coming out of the lockout -- they were wards of the state with the league office approving (or disapproving) their personnel moves, they had just traded Chris Paul and were rebuilding around a bunch of spare parts, and nobody knew how long they'd stay in Louisiana.
Fast forward to today and things look much brighter. While the Hornets limped through a 21-45 season -- one that was considered a spectacular overachievement given the talent on hand -- everything else looks peachy. Tom Benson, owner of the NFL's Saints, purchased the Hornets and assured their future in town. General manager Dell Demps, freed of the league's oversight, plucked some value from dark corners.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Hornets' roster. Player Profiles Insider
And, of course, they won the lottery. That's the real difference-maker, as Anthony Davis gives this team the kind of superstar-caliber talent it lacked once it traded Paul. Small markets always begin fretting immediately about how long they can keep said superstar, but history says that these players always sign a rookie extension. Thus, barring any Minnesota-style silliness, the worst-case scenario is that the Hornets have him for eight years before being forced to trade him in the ninth. That's a long window.
In the meantime, the Hornets will keep churning through players trying to identify long-term core pieces to bolster Davis while keeping the cap situation clean. An amazing 22 different players wore teal last season, and while the Jeff Foote and Squeaky Johnson eras are likely to be brief, at least a couple of them (Greivis Vasquez and Jason Smith) look like keepers. The Hornets also committed to two such players in the offseason, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, and still are looking at high draft picks and lots of cap space for the next few years.
Eric GordonMark J. Rebilas/US PresswireEric Gordon missed a majority of last season because of knee problems.
The Hornets weren't much to look at, playing at the league's slowest pace and starved for scoring when Eric Gordon -- the main piece they received in the Paul trade -- missed all but nine games with knee problems. He wasn't alone, as nearly every key player missed significant time. Emeka Okafor was absent for 39 games thanks to assorted maladies, Jason Smith sat out 26, Trevor Ariza and Carl Landry missed 25 games, Jarrett Jack skipped 21 and Chris Kaman missed 19.
That's nearly all the key rotation players, although lesser players Marco Belinelli, Greivis Vasquez and Al-Farouq Aminu didn't miss a game. On many nights, the burgeoning infirmary left the Hornets with people like Solomon Jones and DaJuan Summers playing in real NBA basketball games.
And yet they persevered. The Hornets weren't always pretty, but nobody played harder. Credit Monty Williams with keeping the group focused, and for playing competent defense despite the rotating lineups. Amazingly, New Orleans finished 16th in defensive efficiency, beating out nearly half the league's teams. I have no idea how they pulled this off.
W-L: 21-45 (Pythagorean W-L: 22-44)Offensive Efficiency: 98.3 (26th)Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (16th)Pace Factor: 90.8 (30th)Highest PER: Gustavo Ayon (16.71)
The Hornets weren't good defending inside the arc, but were bizarrely effective defending 3s. Most good 3-point defenses also allow few 3-point attempts, but New Orleans didn't roll like that. Instead, the Hornets were second in the NBA to Denver in opponent 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, with 25.9 percent of opponent shots coming from distance.
However, most of them didn't go in. The Hornets were second only to Boston in 3-point defense, permitting only 31.7 percent accuracy. The fact their opponents were also taking a lot of shots from out there made this doubly effective. In fact, here's a fun stat: The Hornets were only one of two teams that were better off giving up a 3-point try than a 2-point try. (Houston was the other). New Orleans opponents shot 48.9 percent on 2s, placing New Orleans 23rd, but the FG percentage on 3-pointers against them was just 47.5.
3-point percentage defense, 2011-12Team FGA/FTA Opp. 3-Pt %Boston .212 30.8New Orleans .259 31.7Chicago .173 32.5Houston .209 32.5Toronto .239 32.8League average .226 34.9
Offensively, the lack of talent was a more palpable issue, with the outside shooting a particular problem. The Hornets took only 15.2 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, the worst mark in the league, and were 22nd in accuracy. New Orleans also narrowly edged the Thunder for the league's worst turnover ratio, giving it away on 17 percent of their possessions, but the main problem was the shooting.
Here's how bad it was: New Orleans was above the league average in field-goal percentage, but was 22nd in TS% thanks to its last-place finish in secondary percentage. They weren't great at drawing fouls either -- especially for a team that wasn't shooting 3s -- but the lack of 3-point shooting was the real issue. Obviously, with Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon one presumes that long-range shooting won't prove their undoing this year.
The Hornets had some good stories in between all the injuries. Greivis Vasquez and Gustavo Ayon both proved finds off the scrap heap, Jason Smith had a breakout year as a big man off the bench, Jarrett Jack had a career year, and Trevor Ariza stopped taking so many terrible shots. Between all this they won 21 games, even with all the injuries, and should be commended for doing so.
Ryan AndersonNBA Photos/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe reigning Most Improved Player award winner brings instant offense to the Hornets.
While winning the draft lottery was the headline, the Hornets made several other moves that put themselves in a much better position to compete over the next few seasons:
Traded Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza to Washington for Rashard Lewis and a second-round pick; waived Lewis. In a master stroke of cap planning that immediately put the Hornets on a course to turn their fortunes, New Orleans sent out two fairly productive players with onerous contracts; in return they cut $10 million from their 2012-13 payroll and even more from 2013-14. This was accomplished because Lewis' contract was only partially guaranteed, so when the Hornets cut him they reaped the savings. Unbelievably, the Hornets also got a draft pick out of the deal (the No. 46 choice, used on Darius Miller).
Traded Gustavo Ayon to Orlando for a signed-and-traded Ryan Anderson (four years, $34 million). The culmination of some solid scouting by the Hornets' front office was landing Anderson. First, however, they had to unearth Ayon, a Mexican playing in the Spanish league who proved to be extremely effective in his rookie season. With a cap-friendly contract along with his production, he made an enticing trade prospect to put into a deal for Anderson. The Hornets' cap space, accomplished with the maneuver above, did the rest.
Let Marco Belinelli, Chris Kaman, and Carl Landry go; drafted Anthony Davis, Austin Rivers and Darius Miller. Davis was a no-brainer as the first overall pick, and Miller was a "whatever" with the pick from Washington at No. 46 -- a solid enough glue guy with very limited upside. In between was the interesting part, as Rivers was one of the most divisive players in the draft. He's shown a knack for scoring and drawing fouls, but his ability to man the point and score effectively against NBA athletes is an open question. There were safer picks to be made at No. 10, let's put it that way.
Traded Jarrett Jack to Golden State for the rights to Edin Bavcic. I'm not sure what the proper price was for Jack after his Fluke Rule season in 2011-12, but "free" seems low. Jack had one year left on his deal, and at $5.4 million it wasn't onerous. While trading him opened the door for another move (the Lopez trade below), Jack was the starting point guard and would likely have had trade value at the deadline. Don't hold your breath waiting for the Edin Bavcic era -- league rules mandated the Hornets get something back, and this was the most worthless asset that could be included.
Received Brad Miller and two second-round picks from Minnesota. The Hornets essentially purchased two second-round picks from the Hornets in return for taking on Miller's contract, which they then parlayed into Lopez with the next move below. At first it seemed better -- they were getting the picks for just the $848,000 in guaranteed money owed Miller -- but they used the full amount of Miller's salary in the Lopez deal. Technically, the Hornets also gave Minnesota a pick, but it's a top-55 protected second-rounder that is highly unlikely to ever change hands.
Traded Miller and Jerome Dyson to Phoenix for a signed-and-traded Robin Lopez and Hakim Warrick. The Hornets sent two non-guaranteed contracts to Phoenix for Lopez, giving them a solid big man on a good contract (three years, $15 million, partial guarantees), but in return they had to swallow the two years remaining on Warrick's deal. He's unlikely to play, and based on their upcoming cap numbers he seems like a prime candidate for the stretch provision.
Matched Phoenix's four-year max offer sheet to Eric Gordon. The biggest decision of the summer for the Hornets was the one to match Phoenix's max offer sheet for Gordon. For a lot of teams, this would be a bad move. I'm not sure it was for the Hornets, simply because they're going to be under the cap the next two summers even with all the money they're paying Gordon. So that, essentially, takes care of three of the four years on the deal. It's too much, obviously, especially for a guy who only played nine games last year, but Gordon is young enough that the potential downside of this deal seems very limited.
Signed Roger Mason for one year, minimum. New Orleans was short of a shooter and found an inexpensive veteran in Mason. You'd have preferred they go younger, but it's tough to argue with the price.
Anthony DavisBrian Babineau/Getty ImagesAnthony Davis will anchor the Hornets' defense with his shot-blocking ability.
This will be a very different team than the one that struggled to score a year ago. If anything, one wonders if defense will be their undoing this time around. Ariza was their wing stopper and he's gone. Vasquez looks to be the starting point guard, and while I like his court vision he can't stay in front of quick guards at all. Or slow ones, for that matter. Gordon is an undersized 2 and Al-Farouq Aminu -- a disappoint in his sophomore campaign a year ago -- is the closest thing they have to a wing stopper.
Up front, the Hornets have quality size, but their long-term combo of Anderson and Davis also will probably be their weakest defensive pair in 2012-13. Anderson is an amazing shooter who will be a huge help to the offense (and no, he was not a creation of Dwight Howard), but he struggles with physical matchups defensively. Davis is a great shot-blocker but doesn't yet have the strength to play bigger 5s and bail out Anderson against lunchpail 4s. The size off the bench is more encouraging, as Smith and Lopez are solid, productive 7-footers who combine to give this team a nice four-man big rotation.
Offensively, holes remain. Gordon and Anderson will make the starting unit a pretty decent one, but the bench looks pretty thin unless Rivers makes a more emphatic impact than most expect. The small forward spot seems an open sore as well; Aminu is nowhere close to being starter-caliber, and the backup wings (Mason and Xavier Henry) aren't NBA rotation players.
Nonetheless, this team is in a dramatically better spot than a year ago, and with some patience and a couple more shrewd moves they can be a playoff team. That seemed a hopeless proposition before winning the lottery, keeping Gordon and signing Anderson, but between Williams and those three, there's a nucleus here. Get your licks in now, folks, because the Hornets are rising.
Prediction: 30-52, 4th in Southwest, 12th in Western Conference
― moullet, Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:28 (thirteen years ago)
toronto raptors
In spite of themselves, the Raptors are trying to stay the course. A franchise as susceptible as any to the lure of shiny objects (Look -- Steve Nash! Wait, what were we talking about?), Toronto nonetheless largely stayed out of its own way this past offseason as it continues to build its post-Chris Bosh identity.
And quietly, it took some real steps toward doing so despite a miserable win-loss record. For the first time in eons, the Raptors played respectable defense in 2011-12, with new coach Dwane Casey ushering in a new era of fundamentals and accountability that had even the likes of Andrea Bargnani playing something resembling an NBA defense.
This is not the easiest methodology for team president Bryan Colangelo to embrace. He is infamously impatient with slow-mo rebuilding, and one imagines him having "Fight Club"-esque fisticuffs against himself anytime he gets an opportunity to trade one of his assets for a piece that can provide more immediate dividends.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Raptors' roster. Player Profiles Insider
However, when not distracted by the quick fix, he's gotten a lot of the big decisions right. We'll know more about Jonas Valanciunas after this season, but by all accounts, the fifth pick in the 2011 draft is a keeper, and his European stats support that notion. So is Casey, the coach Colangelo lured from Dallas a year ago to finally instill some defensive gravitas into one of the league's most permissive franchises.
The question now is whether the Raptors can hold back during the most trying time -- when the team becomes good enough to kindasorta contend for the playoffs but isn't really in position to do anything substantive. The Grunfeldian urge to short-circuit might prove irresistible at that point, but the sugar high from such a move will be brief and the damage longer lasting.
The Raps, arguably, already made one such move by sending a future lottery pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry. He'll make the Raptors better this season, but the trade doesn't look like a plus unless Toronto can get into the playoffs by 2014. I'm not willing to rule that out, but it's not exactly something you'd rule in, either.
Otherwise, consider this another growth season, in which answers to questions about the kids will be more important than raw wins and losses. Can young bigs such as Valanciunas and Ed Davis make strides? Is Terrence Ross a keeper? Can Bargnani build on his early 2011-12? Can DeMar DeRozan record an assist?
Those answers are of far more importance than whether the Raptors can sneak into the playoffs and get steamrolled in four by Miami. And hopefully, the answers will prove satisfying enough that the Raps will resist the urge to be their own worst enemies.
Dwyane CaseyRon Turenne/NBAE/Getty ImagesLed by new coach Dwane Casey, the Raptors overhauled one of the league's worst defenses.
Toronto started off looking like a borderline playoff contender, as Casey got his troops to massively upgade their defense from the league-worst performance of 2010-11; meanwhile, Bargnani was erupting offensively and was starting to hear All-Star whispers before calf problems derailed his season.
W-L: 23-43 (Pythagorean W-L: 24-42)Offensive Efficiency: 98.5 (25th)Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (12th)Pace Factor: 91.7 (28th)Highest PER: Andrea Bargnani (18.00)
The offense essentially disintegrated once Bargnani went out, as the Raptors had no secondary player capable of shouldering the load. DeRozan proved a disappointment in this capacity, although Jerryd Bayless added some spark once he returned from injury at midseason. Toronto also got a nice comeback from Linas Kleiza after he'd missed a year with microfracture surgery, and James Johnson provided a lift as an energetic combo forward.
On the other hand, Davis and DeRozan both regressed, and on balance, the Raptors' offense was much like their roster, a tasteless stew of mediocrity but lacking any true awfulness. Toronto was below average in every offensive category except the percentage of assisted baskets, but it was not so bad in any single one that it really warranted extra attention. Basically, every other player had to go about 5 percent beyond his comfort zone once Bargnani went out, and the Raps never found a good remedy.
However, Casey did some special work at the defensive end. Toronto had many of the same players who featured in the league-worst defense the previous season, and yet it ranked in the top half of the league. This was borderline miraculous, yes, but also provides further evidence for the increasing conventional wisdom that coaching can have a lot more of an effect on defense than on offense.
Most Opponent Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt, 2011-12Team FTA/FGAToronto .350L.A. Clippers .329Utah .325Golden State .318Indiana .305League avg. .276
What's interesting is that Casey did this by going all Jerry Sloan on everybody; Toronto led the league by a wide margin in opponent free throw rate and in personal fouls. As a result, the Raps finished 29th in opponent secondary percentage. But they made up for it with a solid field goal defense and, just as important, ranked third in defensive rebound rate. The latter is a pretty impressive accomplishment given their reputation as an easy team to push around. However, as we've seen with Utah, fouling this frequently tends to put an upper limit on how good a defense can be. Cracking the top 10 this way is virtually impossible.
The one fly in the ointment in Casey's record was the indefensible 14-game stretch in which Rasual Butler was the starting small forward, which might have been the single biggest what-the-heck personnel decision in the league last season. Butler had no business being in the NBA, let alone starting, and it's still unclear what could have possibly motivated this decision.
Kyle Lowry Ron Turenne/NBAE/Getty ImagesAfter striking out on Steve Nash, the Raptors brought in Kyle Lowry to take over the point in Toronto.
Toronto's offseason got sidetracked by an emotional pursuit of Steve Nash that wasn't entirely rational given where the team stands, begetting an unfortunate side move that leaves the Raptors stuck with Landry Fields for three years. Otherwise, Toronto continued on its general rebuilding course.
Let Jerryd Bayless go; signed Landy Fields for three years, $19.8 million: The hope was that the Knicks would have to match the "poison pill" deal for Fields by using their midlevel exception, and that would take them out of the chase for Nash. Instead, Nash went to the Lakers, and the Knicks didn't match the Raptors' offer sheet anyway. Fields is a nice enough fourth wing, but his lack of shooting doesn't make him a great fit in this system. He's also more of a 3 than a 2, which is where Toronto has the greater need.
Meanwhile, the Raptors kicked Bayless to the curb after he had an extremely productive half-season off the bench in 2011-12. This decision, however, was more defensible given the Lowry trade, as Bayless would have had to play full time at the 2, where there's already a crowd.
Drafted Terrence Ross, Quincy Acy and Tomislav Zubcic. Ross got solid reviews for his defensive work and 3-point shooting, and should fit in immediately as a role-playing wing, although I suspect his ceiling is fairly limited. Second-rounder Acy is a more speculative pick -- he's a great leaper but he's undersized for a 4 and his basketball skills are raw. Expect him to see a lot of run in the D-League. Zubcic had his moments in the Hoop Summit a couple years ago, playing as sort of a destitute man's Toni Kukoc; they'll stash him overseas and see if he can develop.
Signed Jonas Valanciunas: The fifth overall pick in 2011, Valanciunas posted strong translated stats in Europe the past two seasons and should be able to contribute immediately. Unlike a lot of European players, he likes playing around the basket, but the Lithuanian still needs to add muscle and improve his defensive awareness.
Traded Gary Forbes and a future first-round pick to Houston for Kyle Lowry: An interesting move to accelerate Toronto's rebuild. The Raptors get a star point guard on a bargain contract in Lowry but had to give up a pick that is all but guaranteed to land in the lottery (Houston "reverse-protected" it so that if the Raptors make the playoffs, it carries over to the next year). This might not be so bad if the pick they give up is in the 10-12 range, which it might very well be.
As for Lowry, he thrived offensively in Houston in a point guard-friendly system and might see his numbers take a bit of hit this season, but that will be OK if he can regain his defensive mojo. An ace earlier in his career, he's slipped at that end as his offense has ascended, but the hope is that Casey can return him to his old ways.
Traded James Johnson to Sacramento for a 2014 second-round pick: This was a bit of a bummer. Johnson had a productive season for the Raptors as a combo forward, but Toronto needed to thin the ranks at this spot after a busy offseason. Did the Raptors get fair value? Probably not. But if Johnson walked a year from now, they weren't going to get anything.
Of course, one also can look at this as a side casualty of the Fields maneuver, which swallowed both cap room and potential playing time that could have been used more ably (and cheaply) on Johnson.
Signed John Lucas III for two years, $3.1 million: This was a bit ritzy for a third point guard, and because Toronto's other two point guards are also small, it makes it less likely that he can play long stretches off the ball.
Signed Dominic McGuire and re-signed Alan Anderson to one-year, minimum deals: McGuire has a non-guaranteed second season on his deal, which could prove useful next offseason in potential sign-and-trade deals. But in the short term, I'm not sure he's a great fit. He'll have to play the 3 in Toronto, but he can't shoot and his only real success came as a 4 in Golden State. Anderson is a passable end-of-the-bench guy who provides emergency cover on the wings.
Re-signed Aaron Gray for two years, $5.2 million: He's the fifth big on the depth chart right now, but as the only one with genuine bulk, there are nights he will play an important role. As such, this represents decent value.
Toronto RaptorsAP Photo/Aaron Vincent ElkaimAfter shaking up its lineup, Toronto will try to break into the postseason for the first time in five years.
You can guarantee Casey will have these guys defending, and he has a stronger arsenal to call on at the offensive end. Most notably, there's a perimeter playmaker now with Lowry in the fold. All that might fill Raptors fans with heady thoughts of a playoff return, but such a payoff is likely at least a year away.
For starters, remember the Raptors need to improve an awful lot just to become respectable -- they were 20 games under .500 in a shortened season in 2011-12. For another, keep in mind that some of the gains of last season won't carry over. Bayless and Johnson are gone after delivering solid performances in relief roles last season; Johnson was third on the team in minutes, believe it or not. Also, while Bargnani's injury left a dent, the Raptors were generally a healthy team. One has to expect a certain amount of injury attrition, and part of this game is having the depth to handle it.
The good news is Lowry provides a creator that didn't exist last season, which also should mean fewer chances for DeRozan to re-enact his 15-shot/zero-assist routine (don't laugh -- he did that six times in 2011-12). And even better, Valanciunas provides a post scorer that Toronto hasn't had since, well, ever. Throw in a full season from Bargnani and a halfway decent bench crew, and it's easy to imagine the Raptors landing at or near the league average in offensive efficiency.
On the other hand, it's possible they will regress a bit on defense with a rookie playing center, especially if Lowry packs his indifference for his trip north of the border. The wings are suspect (both DeRozan and Kleiza should really be backups), there's a decent chance both Lowry and Bargnani will regress offensively after career years, and those are the only two guys on the roster you can bank on having a PER above the league average. (Amir Johnson is probably the best chance for a third.)
You can see where I'm going with this. If everything goes perfectly fine, maybe Toronto will sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed. But things rarely go perfectly fine. The good news here is that the Raptors will have a quasi-respectable basketball team, and if they can stay patient, the future offers even better treats. But as much as they might try, this process has few shortcuts.
Prediction: 33-49, 5th in Atlantic, 12th in Eastern Conference
hope i made no mistakes
thanks dude. reading that hawks preview made my freaking dick hard... so excited...
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Wednesday, 24 October 2012 12:49 (thirteen years ago)
thanks again!
― Spottie_Ottie_Dope, Thursday, 25 October 2012 15:06 (thirteen years ago)
portland trail blazers
Call it a do-over. Few teams saw more change in the past 12 months than this one, as the soaring optimism of the past half-decade ended with a crashing thud. That Greg Oden-Brandon Roy era? Not so much.
Portland's Rasputin-like ability to shrug off whatever devastating knee injury that season happened to bring also failed it; while "only" three Blazers had season-ending injuries (Roy, Oden and Elliot Williams), the remaining crew disappointed defensively in particular.
By midseason, the handwriting was on the wall, and Portland busted out the dynamite. Disgruntled vets Marcus Camby and Gerald Wallace were shipped out at the trade deadline -- with Wallace netting the sixth overall pick in a gift of a trade with New Jersey -- while Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford followed over the summer. Longtime coach Nate McMillan was shown the door as well, after the team basically quit on him by midseason. He had a good half-decade run; while McMillan's rep as an alleged defensive coach was wildly overrated, his teams consistently outperformed offensively.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Blazers' roster. Player Profiles Insider
Yet the mystery in Portland lies more in how the Blazers are making the sausage. A year after firing GM Rich Cho, they finally got around to hiring another one by bringing in Neil Olshey from the Clippers. While the gig stood empty, several personnel moves -- drafting Nolan Smith, trading Andre Miller for Raymond Felton, signing Jamal Crawford -- didn't work out. Whispers continue that much of the input on these moves and others came from owner Paul Allen's confidantes rather than the basketball staff, most notably from Allen's longtime friend Bert Kolde.
After a curiously low-wattage group of candidates drew interviews for the coaching and GM positions, the Blazers lured Olshey (a solid enough hire) from the Clippers and Terry Stotts as coach. And after a miss on Roy Hibbert in free agency, Portland basically throttled down and went into a quasi-rebuilding mode. The Blazers still have an All-Star power forward in his prime in LaMarcus Aldridge, but they might start two rookies, and every rotation player except Aldridge is 25 or younger.
As a result, the Blazers aren't starting over the way Charlotte or Orlando is, but they aren't exactly arming up to do battle with the Lakers, either. For the time being, this team has no pretense of contending for anything important.
LaMarcus AldridgeRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesAlthough LaMarcus Aldridge shined, earning his first All-Star bid, the Blazers finished just 28-38.
The less we speak of this the better. Despite a dispiriting training camp that saw Roy amnestied because of continued knee problems and Oden undergo yet another microfracture, Portland had a strong start to the season. The Blazers looked like a fringe contender in the West a third of the way through the season, and even after a stretch of close losses, there was little cause for alarm. Through 28 games, Portland was 15-13 against a fairly difficult schedule. At worst, it seemed, the Blazers would make the playoffs.
Then, without warning, the bottom fell out. Some of the veterans effectively quit on McMillan, the team stopped playing defense -- beginning, rather abruptly, by allowing 124 points at home to the 28th-ranked Wizards offense -- and within 15 games, the team was starting over under interim coach Kaleb Canales. (Except for the apparent contractual requirement to continue starting old, washed-up centers, that is, which continued unabated through most of the spring.)
While the vets -- most notably turnover-prone point guard Felton -- took most of the blame, an underlying story was the underperformance of the younger players behind them. Rookie point guard Nolan Smith was a disaster, second-year forward Luke Babbitt wasn't much better and second-year guard Elliot Williams hardly played due to injuries. The only positive development on that front was Nic Batum's emergence as a starter.
W-L: 28-38 (Pythagorean W-L: 31-35)Offensive Efficiency: 102.8 (13th)Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (22nd)Pace Factor: 93.5 (15th)Highest PER: LaMarcus Aldridge (22.73)
Overall, Portland wasn't nearly as bad as its record; even with Aldridge sitting out at the end and the team in full-blown tank mode (Jonny Flynn! Hasheem Thabeet!) after the trade deadline, it was outscored by only 51 points on the season.
Offensively, the Blazers deviated from McMillan's usual high-volume, low-turnover approach, falling to the middle of the pack in both turnovers and offensive rebounds. They still finished 13th in efficiency thanks to some sweet free throw shooting (the league's second best at 79.6 percent) and a high rate of 3-point attempts.
Defensively, however, they slumped to 22nd. There wasn't any specific category that killed them; they just gave up high percentages on both 2s and 3s, and were average to below average at everything else. With the talent on this team, they should have been much better, and it's the reason the season was such a failure.
Given the Blazers' rebuilding approach, the two most important moves were off the court. Portland hired Stotts as coach and lured Olshey to run the front office. Olshey's résumé from L.A. was generally solid (the Summer of Foye and Gomes notwithstanding), resulting in the difficult feat of making the Clippers relevant. He now gets to try a similar feat in Portland, but it might be more difficult without the benefit of a first overall draft pick, sun and sand.
As for Stotts, he's been one of the league's most well-liked assistants for a long time, especially for his offensive acumen, but his two previous head-coaching gigs didn't go well. In both Atlanta and Milwaukee, the teams simply didn't defend well enough -- in his four full and partial seasons at the helm, his teams were 22nd, 25th, 23rd and 29th in defensive efficiency. There were complicating factors in both stops, but he has to show he can summon a decent defensive effort from his troops.
Nicolas Batum Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesPortland matched Minnesota's offer for Nicolas Batum, signing the 23-year-old to a $45 million deal.
Plan A went down the tubes when Indiana matched their max-contract offer to Roy Hibbert, so instead the Blazers went into a fairly full-scale rebuilding mode. Every player older than 28 was jettisoned.
Signed-and-traded Raymond Felton and Kurt Thomas to New York for Jared Jeffries, Dan Gadzuric, Kostas Papanikolaou and a 2016 second-rounder: Gadzuric was waived immediately, and Jeffries is unlikely to play much. The prize here was Papanikolaou, a promising Greek forward drafted in the second round whom the Blazers will leave overseas to develop. They just have to be shocked they got anything for Felton after his miserable 2011-12 season. While Jeffries technically has a three-year deal, the last two aren't guaranteed and he'll almost certainly be waived or traded after the season.
Matched Nicolas Batum's four-year, $45 million offer sheet: The weirdest piece of the offseason was the cloak-and-dagger stuff going on between Minnesota and Portland over Batum. Minnesota had an agreement on an offer sheet but took days to consummate it -- supposedly because it was trying to lure Portland into a sign-and-trade that might have netted the Blazers multiple first-round draft picks and/or Derrick Williams.
That intrigue was more interesting than the ultimate result, which was another restricted free agent staying home. Batum is overpaid at this price if his defense doesn't improve, but at his age (23), future improvement is priced into the deal. The bigger problem was that Portland lost a chance to sign a major free agent before paying Batum, and its cap situation makes it much trickier to try jumping back into the market next summer.
Let Jamal Crawford go; drafted Damian Lillard, Will Barton and Meyers Leonard: I have some concerns about Lillard but he had a great summer league and the Blazers have given him the keys to the offense with no reservations -- there's not even a viable Plan B on the roster if he fails. Leonard might start at center but he's not nearly as far along in his development and might take a few lumps this season. Worryingly, the history of centers drafted late in the lottery is not covered in glory, and nobody will be surprised if a J.J. Hickson-Aldridge frontcourt finishes most games. As for Barton, he was a good value pick in the second round and might squeeze into the mix on the wings.
Traded rights to Jon Diebler to Houston for two second-round draft picks, and signed-and-traded Sasha Pavlovic from Boston: Basically, Portland facilitated Courtney Lee's sign-and-trade to Boston and got two second-round picks for the trouble. Everybody got something out of it: Boston got Lee, Houston got a prospect and Pavlovic got to stay in the NBA. For the moment, anyway.
Let Joel Przybilla and Craig Smith go; signed Joel Freeland and Victor Claver: Overseas stash picks from previous seasons, Freeland and Claver shouldn't have much difficulty improving on Portland's production at the backup center and backup small forward position, respectively. Freeland's stats translate more optimistically, but Claver might be more ready at the defensive end.
Re-signed J.J. Hickson for one year, $4 million: Portland cleverly used a trade exception to claim Hickson on waivers in March after the Kings released him, and the Blazers were wise not to get overly excited about Hickson's burst of productivity upon coming to Portland. This price is fair value for what he is: a solid backup 4 who can play some 5 if needed.
Signed Ronnie Price for one year at veteran's minimum: Price and Lillard apparently are great friends, a fact that is keeping Price in the NBA as a 12th man. But he has severe limitations as a basketball player, since he can neither shoot nor play the point.
Damian LillardJesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty ImagesThe Trail Blazers are hoping rookie point guard Damian Lillard can lead them back in the right direction.
There's a chance the Blazers could ride strong years from Aldridge and Batum, good health, a solid rookie campaign from Lillard, and a strong home-court advantage to the eighth seed in the playoffs. Not one I'd bet on, but a chance. That's the good news.
More realistically, it looks like the Blazers can plan on another high draft pick this June. For starters, the history of rookie point guards is that they get torn to shreds. They learn from it and come out the other end a lot better a year later, but unless you've got Chris Paul or Magic Johnson, chances are he'll take his lumps. I'd say Lillard falls firmly in the non-Magic category.
Second, any health problems are going to be a real issue because the depth just isn't there. Perhaps it all will come together, but too many players here are either unproven (Lillard, Leonard, Claver, Freeland and Smith) or proven but not in a good way (Jeffries, Babbitt, Price and Pavlovic). Amazingly, it appears five of the top 10 players are going to be rookies. Essentially, there are three proven, viable rotation players on the roster (Aldridge, Batum and Wes Matthews), and otherwise there are a ton of question marks. And discouragingly, Williams kept a fine Blazers tradition alive by rupturing his Achilles over the summer. Yes, Portland already has its first season-ending injury in the books.
Stotts will have to shape this, somehow, and improve on last season's 22nd-place finish in defensive efficiency -- an area that, historically, has not been his forte. The Blazers likely will talk playoffs as a goal, but realistically this team is playing for a year or two out. Don't be surprised if the Blazers deal Matthews at midseason, which would allow them to take another spin on the free-agent wheel in 2013. This is particularly true if the young guards play well. Remember, soon the clock will start ticking on Aldridge and his 2015 free agency, and this program will have to show results.
In the meantime, look for league-average offense thanks to Aldridge and Stotts' playbook, subpar defense, and another trip to the lottery.
Prediction: 27-55, 5th in Northwest, tied for 13th in Western Conference
― moullet, Thursday, 25 October 2012 23:44 (thirteen years ago)
OverviewYes, Detroit is still in the league, but I can understand if you'd forgotten that fact at some point in the past half decade. Strapped by two horrific free-agent decisions and an ownership change off the court, and without a doubt the most boring team in the league on it, the Pistons only began to emerge from their shell in the past year once the sale of the team to Tom Gores was completed.
With that out of the way, we're starting to see signs of life. Greg Monroe looks like a star in the making, Rodney Stuckey is a plus, Jonas Jerebko had a nice year, and there's finally light at the end of their looooooong salary cap tunnel ... Yes, Virginia, the Pistons will have cap space next summer.HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 25-41 (Pythagorean W-L: 20-46)Offensive Efficiency: 97.8 (29th)Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (25th))Pace Factor: 91.7 (27th)Highest PER: Greg Monroe (22.09)Yet it's still amazing to see how much the decisions to pay Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva three years ago continue to hamper the team. The Pistons had to give up a first-round pick just to wash their hands of Gordon, essentially selling a likely lottery pick, while Villanueva's continued presence owes mostly to Detroit waiting for the optimal time for his inevitable amnesty.
Other positives have emerged beneath the scenes. Joe Dumars seems re-energized by this whole GM thing after a half-decade run of baffling awfulness that began with the Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson trade and culminated in the twin disasters of Gordon and Villanueva. The Pistons have added analytics staff, patiently avoided bad contracts, and generally started looking the part of a real basketball organization again.
Dumars even was able to keep a head coach around for more than a few hours, as Frank begins his second season with something resembling job security. Ask around and the reviews you get of him are all over the place, but he was able to keep the Pistons on track after a brutal start a year ago and the team showed some genuine improvement after the break.
Now, they just need to win a few games. Unfortunately, you might have to wait a bit on that front. But at least there are tangible signs of progress.
Greg MonroeTim Fuller/US PresswireGreg Monroe gives the Pistons hope of getting up off the floor in the years ahead.
Well, it got ugly fast: Detroit was 4-20 after 24 games, with the team vying to be the league's worst defensive club. However, they turned things around in the second half of the year, going 21-21 in the final 42 games and playing respectable defense from the midway point onward.
The offense, alas, was never respectable. Despite the huge progress made by second-year power forward Greg Monroe -- who finished the year fifth in the Eastern Conference in PER, believe it or not -- the Pistons just didn't have enough weapons around him. Rookie point guard Brandon Knight was a disappointment, center Ben Wallace couldn't score if you left him alone with a Nerf hoop, and with the exception of Gordon, there just wasn't enough shooting anywhere.
Personnel disappointments played a role. Forward Austin Daye, expected to provide some of that shooting, suffered a brutal campaign that saw him yanked from the rotation, and Villanueva was never a factor. Instead, veteran retread Damien Wilkins played 922 minutes off the bench for a rebuilding team, in one of the year's more puzzling personnel developments, and averaged a robust 8.3 points per 40 minutes.
Overall Detroit finished 29th in offensive efficiency, helped along by ranking 27th in 3-piont frequency and 28th in turnover rate. Those two factors were related -- with no shooting threats, Detroit kept trying to attack the rim, driving into crowds and yielding numerous miscues. The only time the Pistons deviated was in late-game situations, where they inexplicably kept feeding Tayshaun Prince to shoot contested 20-footers.
The other factor was how hard this was to watch. The one thing that hasn't changed in Detroit in half a decade is the overwhelming, gouge-your-eyes-out boredom inflicted by watching the team. The Pistons were once again near the bottom of the league in pace factor, spending much of the game with guards dribbling out the shot clock while going no place in particular. While their No. 27 ranking made them look like a freewheeling, run-and-gun outfit compared to previous seasons, the visual was unchanged. Detroit, once again, effectively had four shooting guards and no point guards.
Top rate of opp. assisted baskets, 2011-12Team Ast/FGADetroit .624Golden State .620New Jersey .615Cleveland .602Denver .601
Defensively, Detroit's main characteristic was all the assists it gave up. Detroit opponents assisted on 62.4 percent of its baskets, the highest figure in the league; surprisingly, this happened even though the Pistons didn't give up an inordinate number of 3-pointers. The problem was the 2-pointers: Opponents shredded them for a .492 mark inside the arc, the sixth-worst mark in the league, suggesting either that nobody was "helping the helper" on opposing drives or that they were too focused on not leaving corner 3-point shooters. Or both.
Although the Pistons' record over the final 42 games was encouraging, by other measures Detroit was much worse than its win-loss record. The Pistons won 5.2 games more than expected by their scoring margin, the second-highest figure in the league, so the final record of 25-41 is a bit misleading. Moreover, they had outstanding health -- only Rodney Stuckey (11 games) and Gordon (14) missed much time.
Andre DrummondFernando Medina/Getty ImagesCoach Lawrence Frank likely will have some lessons to offer Pistons teenager Andre Drummond.Detroit's moves were future-focused, bringing in five rookies this year and unloading Gordon in a cap move. The Pistons look desperately thin in the backcourt, with no real shooting on the perimeter except second-rounder Kim English, but with 15 already on the roster, it's unlikely we'll see another move to address that. They aren't playing for this year anyway. Check out these moves:
Let Wallace go, drafted Andre Drummond, Khris Middleton, and Kim English: The big coup here is Drummond, a high-risk, high-reward type who potentially gives Detroit a huge big man who can occupy the middle and free up Greg Monroe from some of the poundings he takes at the 5. Drummond has some warts, however, and is seen more as a project than an immediate contributor. Looking at this roster, he may start anyway. Obviously, Drummond can't be any worse than Wallace offensively, but he might be just as bad from the free throw line. Defensive is the open question, largely dependent on how often he brings his A game.
Second-rounders English and Middleton may get chances to play, especially English. The Pistons don't have a ton of wing depth and badly need more shooting; English, though limited in other respects is an excellent shooter.
Let Damien Wilkins go, signed Kyle Singler for three years, $3 million: Singler was a second-round pick in 2011 that the Pistons stashed in Europe for a year. I didn't like him then and don't now; he had a poor season in Europe (translated PER: 7.37) and the Pistons already have more combo forwards than they know what to do with. It's a cap-friendly dollar number, but all three years are guaranteed -- which is a bit unusual for a second-rounder.
Let Vernon Macklin go, signed Slava Kravstov for three years, $4.9 million: I didn't agree with the decision to let Macklin walk, as he had a fairly positive rookie season for a late-second round pick. But the interest in Kravstov is understandable. He comes from a low-level European league but posted good numbers there and his size is an obvious asset. The Pistons didn't have a true center a year ago, but between Kravstov and Drummond, they now have two seven-footers to help protect Monroe inside.
Traded Gordon and a future first-rounder to Charlotte for Corey Maggette: Here's the logic: Gordon had two guaranteed years left; Maggette had one. So the Pistons paid off Charlotte with a first-round pick (top-14 protected this year, top-8 in 2014, top-1 in 2015) just to wash their hands of the $13.2 million Gordon was owed in 2013-14 and create cap room next summer. Obviously, this was an expensive price to pay: Detroit likely gives up a pick in the 10-12 range in 2014, and perhaps much worse later.
As far as the basketball stuff goes, Maggette has lost a lot of his explosiveness over the past two years and is likely to have a fairly limited impact, plus he'll miss half the year with assorted injuries. On paper, he's the backup shooting guard, but in practice I'm not sure he'll play much.
Rodney StuckeyGreg M. Cooper/US PresswireAfter running the point, Rodney Stuckey's move to the wing last season improved his numbers.
The Pistons are starting to turn the corner, but you have to understand the size of the mess they're cleaning up to appreciate why it's taking so long. Detroit didn't have cap space this year and couldn't make any free agent moves, and nobody is clamoring to come here just for the sun and beaches. The Pistons big "add" was a project center who may not contribute much this season, and their other major move was paying a team to take one of their players.
Meanwhile, the roster still looks overloaded with combo forwards and shoot-first point guards who pound the shot clock into oblivion. It's glaringly lacking in terms of shooting without Gordon, and now looks very iffy depth-wise in the backcourt.
The good news it that Detroit has a genuinely good building block in Monroe, and that the two huge seven-footers the Pistons added should allow him to play more at power forward and spare him some of the physical mismatches that gave him trouble as a center.
The bad news? There's a lot of that, actually. While Stuckey is a good player and Knight may well improve sharply in his second season -- many young point guards do, although Knight wasn't particularly impressive as a rookie -- there's still not a ton of talent in the cupboard. Monroe and Stuckey are the only players who project to have PERs above the league average, and defensively they're likely to take their lumps again.
Overall, Detroit got big breaks both with close games and health last season, and still finished well out of the money in a shortened season. With more normal fortune and a longer slate of games, I'm not sure their win total will change much.
Prediction: 27-55, 5th in Central Division, 13th in Eastern Conference
houston rockets
It's a house built on spec, basically. Houston has all the assets to make a blockbuster deal, and now it just needs a partner willing to dance with them. They had Pau Gasol, and the league vetoed it. They thought they might have Dwight Howard, and instead the Magic took another offer. Whomever is up next (Chris Paul? Josh Smith?), Houston will certainly be in the conversation. The overarching question is whether they can get one of these deals completed (and, er, approved by the league).
Until then, the Rockets are basically collecting as many opportunities as possible to get that player for themselves via other means, from signing Jeremy Lin to trading Kyle Lowry for a lottery pick to littering their own roster with a cross-section of the young and the inexpensive.
But the big theme here is that the Rockets are no longer content to tread water in the middle of the Western Conference standings. They'd much rather be very good, obviously, but if they can't do that they'd prefer to be quite bad and build up the youth, draft picks and cap flexibility needed to rebuild a better version of themselves.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Rockets' roster. Player Profiles Insider
All of this leaves Kevin McHale in a bit of a bind, as he was brought in for the more immediate goal of pushing last season's squad into the playoffs, something that seemed likely until a sudden, late collapse. Now his task is to form an amorphous blob of a roster into something coherent, develop the kids and make this roster look tempting enough that a star might lobby to join it.
In retrospect, Houston probably should have chose this direction sooner, but the hope was that they could still be a playoff team while slowly rebuilding their post-Yao Ming roster. And in the Eastern Conference, they probably would have been. But the Rockets' amazingly bad luck in being a playoff bridesmaid shows no sign of abating. Last year was the third straight season, and fifth since 2000, that the Rockets missed the playoffs despite finishing above .500. In that same time span, it's only happened six times to the league's other 29 teams.
Jeremy LinScott Halleran/Getty ImagesJeremy Lin should put up big numbers in Kevin McHale's point guard-friendly system.
The resolute half-goodness of the 2011-12 Houston Rockets is told most tellingly in their team statistics, where they were right at the league average at darned near everything, leaving us with precious little with which to wow you in the way of graphs and charts.
Look closer, however, and a few nuggets jump out. First of all, the offense was a huge change from Rick Adelman's system, and you could see the results in the statistics for the guards. Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry both had the best seasons of their careers in Kevin McHale's point guard-centric approach, which basically involved giving them the ball, running high pick-and-rolls, and letting them go. Meanwhile, Kevin Martin -- who had the highest scoring rate of any shooting guard in the league (yes, including Kobe and Wade) in 2011-12, became something of an afterthought, mostly spotting up and drawing markedly fewer fouls.
That showed in the one surprise statistic for Houston -- they were just 28th in free throw rate, averaging .235 tries per field goal attempt, despite employing one of the best foul-drawers in captivity in Martin. The Rockets made up for it in other respects, as they both took and made more 3s than average, and that helped them slightly eclipse the league average overall. Nonetheless, it was a decline from their sixth-best rank with similar personnel in 2010-11. Presumably Jeremy Lin will get them to the line more.
If McHale disappointed offensively, he did squeeze more out of the defense. This came with some friction, especially with Lowry, but the Rockets coaxed a league-average season from what, on paper, looked to be some very iffy defensive pairings.
Houston's key was cutting off the 3-pointer. The Rockets were fourth in both opponent 3-point frequency and opponent 3-point accuracy; overall only the three elite defenses (Boston, Chicago and Philly) gave up fewer 3-pointers last season. This appears to have been a conscious choice to trade 2s for 3s: Houston was 24th in 2-point defense but had the second-lowest rate of opponent assisted baskets.
W-L: 34-32 (Pythagorean W-L: 34-32)Offensive Efficiency: 102.8 (12th)Defensive Efficiency: 102.1 (15th)Pace Factor: 94.3 (11th)Highest PER: Marcus Camby (19.6)
From a big-picture perspective, the play of the young players was a bit concerning. Chandler Parsons was the exception, proving to be a second-round steal and taking over as the starting small forward. However, first-round pick Marcus Morris couldn't get on the floor, second-year pro Patrick Patterson regressed after a solid rookie year, and Chase Budinger again failed to improve and was traded after the season.
Despite all this, Houston looked good until the bitter end. The Rockets were 32-25 and seemingly challenging for a top-six seed, but lost six straight games -- including three at home and one on the road to lowly New Orleans -- to suddenly fall out of contention and miss the playoffs.
Kevin MartinRon Chenoy/US PresswireKevin Martin, one of the few rotation holdovers, had the highest scoring rate for shooting guards.
Moves? Why, yes, the Rockets made one or two. Kevin Martin, Chandler Parsons and Patrick Patterson are the only rotation players left from last year's team. Expect more -- the Rockets go into training camp with 20 players under contract. Three have non-guaranteed deals (Greg Smith, Diamon Simpson and Courtney Fortson), but at least two others must be cut or traded.
Traded Kyle Lowry to Toronto for Gary Forbes and a future first-round pick: Lowry had a breakout year in Houston and has one of the league's most cap-friendly contracts, so the Rockets decided to sell high and get a likely future lottery pick. Houston creatively protected the pick on the low side, so that if it's anywhere from 15 to 30 it pushes to the next year -- the first time we've seen a team do this. In doing so, the Rockets basically guarantee themselves a lottery pick from Toronto at some point in the next half-decade. This pick is likely to be the centerpiece of any potential trade Houston puts together for its elusive superstar, although the Raptors are likely to be juuuust good enough that it lands around 10th in 2013.
Let Goran Dragic go, signed Jeremy Lin for three years, $25.2 million: Obviously it's a gamble letting both point guards walk, but Houston left a pretty good plan B for itself by using the "Gilbert Arenas rule" to devise an offer sheet that would have whacked the Knicks financially in the third year. In doing so, they became the rare team to have an offer sheet go unmatched.
This wasn't just a case of spending for spending's sake either. Lin's talents seemingly translate very well to McHale's system, given the success that Lowry and Dragic had a year ago, so he may be a bargain even at this price. Similarly, Houston seems to have made a calculated risk that McHale's system was making the previous two point guards look better than they were, and thereby overvalued in the market.
Signed Omer Asik for three years, $25.2 million: Houston went big with the rest of its free-agent bucks, again targeting a team with luxury tax issues via the Arenas rule. Asik is a poor offensive player, but defensively he's among the best in basketball. The Rockets have been soft at that end since Yao's injury woes began, although Sam Dalembert papered over some of those problems a year ago, but Asik should solidify the interior defense right away. Let's just say he'll get plenty of chances to guard the rim given all the kids at the other spots.
Traded Sam Dalembert to Milwaukee for Jon Leuer, Shaun Livingston and Jon Brockman and swap of first-round picks: A cap move by the Rockets that also moved them up two spots in the 2012 draft, the main point here was to clear Dalembert's contract. They also netted Livingston, however, who is likely to be the backup point guard and should provide decent value. Leuer was waived and Brockman is likely to follow, as he appears to be the 13th-string power forward.
Traded Chase Budinger to Minnesota for a 2012 first-round pick: Budinger has one of the best contracts in basketball, but the Rockets dropped him because he was about to become an unrestricted free agent and paying him in the summer of 2013 might have blocked other moves that are more palatable. So Houston essentially did what a lot of smart teams do in this situation: They reset the clock for three years by getting another player (Terrence Jones) on a rookie contract.
Drafted Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Royce White and Furkan Aldemir: Houston ended up with three first-round picks and got good value with all three picks. (Aldemir, the late second-rounder, is a talented Turkish big man, but an overseas stash pick who reportedly may be reluctant to play in the U.S.).
Signed Donatas Motiejunas. Houston's 2011 first-rounder had a solid year in his native Lithuania. He's another player who is probably more comfortable at the 4, but may need to play some 5 this year to get on the floor. He's not physical at all, but a high skill guy who can shoot and handle.
Signed-and-traded Courtney Lee to Boston for JaJuan Johnson, Sean Williams, E'Twaun Moore and rights to Jon Diebler: Lee wasn't in Houston's plans after they drafted Lamb, so they converted him into more assets by obtaining 2011 first-rounder Johnson and limited sharpshooter Diebler in a three-way deal with Boston and Portland. Williams and Moore had non-guaranteed contracts and were waived.
Signed-and-traded Marcus Camby to New York for Toney Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrellson, two second-round picks and cash: Similar to the Lee deal above, the Rockets got assets for a player who wasn't in their plans -- in this case second-rounders from New York in 2014 and 2015. The Knicks sent money to pay Douglas' contract, and the other two players had non-guaranteed deals and were waived.
Signed Carlos Delfino for two years, $6 million: The second year of this deal is non-guaranteed and one suspects the Rockets will either waive or trade Delfino after the season. In the meantime, he provides something of a stopgap as a wing defender and 3-point shooter, but his play tailed off sharply last season so it's not clear how much help he'll provide. From Houston's perspective, his primary value was his willingness to play on what's effectively a one-year deal and not mess up their cap planning.
Chandler Parsons David Sherman/Getty ImagesChandler Parsons' first season in the NBA ended with All-Rookie second-team honors.
I'll give you two predictions. First, Lin will be the real deal. In this system, with the point guard as the focus, he will thrive just as he did during the heights of Linsanity under Mike D'Antoni. And despite scouts' misgivings about some of his weaknesses, Lin simply does too many high-value things (drawing fouls, assisting at the rim, steals and rebounds) to not be an effective player.
Unfortunately, he won't have much help. Asik will provide a nice backstop defensively but provide little scoring, and the kids are a year or two away from being able to contribute enough to make a substantial difference. About the one potential positive factor would be a return of the 2010-11 Martin, but that would likely require the Rockets to revert to Rick Adelman's offense and take the ball out of Lin's hands more. In fact, it's more likely that Martin is traded at some point and the Rockets just go all-in with Lin on offense.
Unfortunately, there's just not enough else to justify a lofty prediction for this team. The Rockets have six players from the past two drafts that are likely to get meaningful playing time, and the assorted role players on hand (Delfino, Livingston, Forbes) don't have the kind of pedigree that suggests they'll make much impact on the standings.
The only two players who project to have a PER better than the league average are Martin and Lin; while Asik is also likely a net positive due to his defense, that still leaves Houston a few players short unless a couple of the kids greatly outperform expectations. Stranger things have happened, of course, but this is not the way to bet.
Prediction: 27-55, 5th in Southwest, tied for 13th in Western Conference
charlotte bobcats
The Bobcats had a B.J., two D.J.s and an MJ. What they didn't have on most nights was a W.
It takes a lot of misfortune to have the worst record in history, but it was no accident that the Bobcats ended up in this situation. They were an object lesson in How Not To Do Things during the Larry Brown era, and that's really what created this mess. The Brown-Michael Jordan duo committed sundry errors of short-term thinking, basically going all-in to squeeze a modestly talented team into the 2010 playoffs but utterly sabotaging their future in the process.
Disastrous short-term thinking led to deals like swapping a future first-rounder for the rights to Alexis Ajinca, dumping another to snag (and then overpay) Tyrus Thomas, and dealing a lottery pick that could have been Joakim Noah to get Jason Richardson. Disastrous drafting led them to pick Adam Morrison over Rudy Gay and D.J. Augustin over Brook Lopez. The icing on the cake, of course, was the bewildering trade of Tyson Chandler to Dallas for the Mavs' spare parts.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Bobcats' roster. Player Profiles Insider
It all culminated in last season's perfect storm, when just about everything that could go wrong did, but the groundwork for this was being laid as early as 2007. As such, you can see this as a trailing indicator of organizational quality -- the 2011-12 Bobcats were terrible not so much because they made bad decisions that season, but because they made so many unbelievably awful ones from 2007 to 2010.
Similarly, the Bobcats are already starting to slowly, painfully get this ship turned around, and even last season's train wreck is part of that story. Under new general manager Rich Cho, Charlotte has cleaned up its books from the capped-out Brown-era mess. The Bobcats smartly opted to climb off the veteran treadmill in 2011-12 by focusing on rebuilding.
Granted, it wasn't supposed to be this bad. Boris Diaw was supposed to care, Thomas was supposed to look like an NBA basketball player, and Corey Maggette was supposed to provide enough scoring to make up for other deficiencies. None of those things happened. But only a few teams even have the opportunity to be this awful; Charlotte put itself in this position, and as such represents an important case study for front offices on why you shouldn't sell your soul just to get a 7-seed in the playoffs one year. Unfortunately, others have already begun repeating their mistake.
Kemba WalkerAP Photo/Chuck BurtonKemba Walker had a rough introduction, joining the NBA's most woeful franchise.
OK, here's the deal. They stunk, in a way that perhaps no team in the history of the game has stunk before. While they might not have technically been the worst team in history (I still vote for the 1992-93 Mavs that began the year 4-57 and had a mind-blowing minus-14.7 scoring margin), they're certainly on the short list for the discussion. Charlotte finished with both the league's worst offense and the league's worst defense, a staggering display of ineptitude.
It might have been more encouraging if the Bobcats got more impressive performances from their young talent, but by and large this didn't happen. Center Bismack Biyombo showed flashes of potential as a rookie, with some spectacular shot blocks in particular, but offensively he remains very raw. Point guard Augustin failed to develop further and was allowed to leave after the season. Behind him, Kemba Walker had an up-and-down first season. And Thomas, arguably the team's best player a season earlier, had a disastrous campaign that featured one of the largest one-season PER drops in league annals.
W-L: 7-59 (Pythagorean W-L: 5-61)Offensive Efficiency: 92.3 (30th)Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (30th)Pace Factor: 93.6 (17th)Highest PER: Kemba Walker (14.98)
The veterans didn't help, either. Diaw was out of shape, unmotivated and eventually deactivated, before he suddenly showed up in San Antonio looking spry and happy. Maggette and Reggie Williams were supposed to provide points and keep the team quasi-competitive while the other kids worked out the kinks, but Maggette lost a step and was ineffective while Williams struggled with a knee injury.
About the only positives were the emergence of big man B.J. Mullens, picked up from Oklahoma City, and the solid play of reserve forward Derrick Brown -- who, curiously, wasn't retained.
As to their specific strengths and weaknesses, I think we can skip straight to the "weaknesses" part. Offensively, a lack of shooting ability proved murderous. Charlotte was last in 2-point percentage and 3-point percentage, and had the league's third-lowest 3-point rate. While the Bobcats drew fouls at a decent clip, they still finished with a brutal .483 true shooting percentage as a team -- 22 percentage points worse than any other club.
In particular, the inability of the wings to stretch defenses suffocated the offense. Gerald Henderson and Brown were fine players in a vacuum, but combined for just 17 triples the entire season. Point guards Walker and Augustin shot more often, but not with great accuracy.
Defensively, Charlotte was above the league average in shot-blocking thanks to Biyombo, and neither fouled nor surrendered 3s at a particularly high rate. Apparently their opponents were too busy shooting layups to be bothered with the other stuff. Charlotte was 29th in 2-point defense, 30th in overall field goal defense, and 28th in opponent TS%.
Making matters worse was all the shots their opponents got. Charlotte was bad at forcing turnovers and terrible on the defensive glass; as a result, the Bobcats were 26th in opponent shot attempts per possession.
Basically, they need help everywhere, but if you had to pinpoint things, a wing shooter and a quality power forward are the most pressing needs. Ironically, this seemed their strongest position entering last season with Diaw and Thomas.
Charlotte BobcatsKent Smith/Getty ImagesAfter some offseason moves, here's your 2012-13 Bobcats, poised to rise out of the cellar.
Having nothing and needing everything, Charlotte focused on talent and asset acquisition. One major move came off the court, where St. John's assistant coach Mike Dunlap was a surprise hire for the head coaching gig to replace Paul Silas. Dunlap is a younger, high-energy guy with a rep as a teacher, so the hope is that he'll accelerate the rebuilding.
Traded Maggette to Detroit for Ben Gordon and a first-round pick: This was a straight purchase of a lottery pick, basically, as the Bobcats are likely to get a high pick in the 2014 or 2015 draft in return for swallowing an extra year of a bad contract. Gordon's bad deal had one year longer to run than Maggette's, but with Charlotte not needing cap space for free-agent splurges (who's taking the money at this point?), the Bobcats basically decided to pay Gordon $13.2 million in 2013-14 to give themselves a chance at a star with Detroit's draft pick. In the meantime, Gordon answers a genuine need for more shooting.
The pick from Detroit is top-14 protected in 2013, top-8 in 2014, top-1 in 2015, and unprotected thereafter. The most likely scenario is they end up picking 10th or so in 2014, but there's a chance it ends up a very high pick a year later.
Drafted Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeffery Taylor: MKG was a no-brainer pick for Charlotte; big, talented wings with a strong motor and no character issues virtually never fail. His shooting, alas, is his weakest skill, so he won't correct the single greatest shortcoming of last season's roster. Taylor, an early second-round pick, might have been more of a stretch after an outlier senior year shooting 3s, but he can defend the wings.
Let Augustin go, signed Ramon Sessions for two years, $10 million: This is a good system for Sessions, because he thrives with the ball in his hands and the Bobcats desperately need to put the ball in his hands. Sessions isn't a great shooter, but he can carve up defenses with his penetration skills and either score in the paint or set up others. The price and years are right, too, and he'll be a major upgrade on what Augustin gave them a year ago. Just avert your eyes when he's on defense.
Awarded Brendan Haywood in amnesty auction for four years, $8.2 million: This was a decent use of some spare cap dollars to get a quality defensive center to pair with Biyombo; while the years on Haywood's deal are a bit scary, the Bobcats got him so inexpensively that it diminishes a lot of the risk.
Gerald HendersonCraig Mitchelldyer/US PRESSWIREGerald Henderson was the leading scorer and provides hope for team defensive improvement.
Well, they'll be better. How could they be any worse?
In fact, they might not even be the league's worst team this season, not with Orlando undergoing a full tear-down similar to the one Charlotte endured. (Oddly, both Cho and Magic GM Rob Hennigan were assistant general managers in Oklahoma City, which is the most successful practitioner of this model).
They certainly won't be good, however. Not with two rookies starting and a third starter (Biyombo) still largely bereft of meaningful playing experience. Not with a glaring lack of a go-to scorer, a nonexistent home-court advantage, and multiple dead-weight contracts taking up space on the end of the bench. (Yes, Matt Carroll and DeSagana Diop are still here.)
That said, they'll be better. Most bad teams get creamed in the paint, but Charlotte has decent size and may defend somewhat adequately this season. Biyombo and Haywood are two solid 7-footers who can defend the rim and guard good post players; that's an important foundation. At the 4, Thomas is likely to play much, much better than he did a year ago -- especially if Silas' bizarre decision to play him on the wing is consigned to the trash bin -- and Mullens showed signs of being a real offensive weapon with the second unit.
On the wings, Charlotte actually has two pretty good defenders in Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson, although precious little backs them up. Nonetheless, I'll be very surprised if this team finishes 30th in defensive efficiency again.
Finally, the veteran help should accomplish more than least season's bunch. Haywood is part of that, but so is Sessions, who is in a great situation for his talents and should help the starters to be somewhat competent offensively. With all that said, they're still going to get their butts kicked on most nights, if not quite as regularly or emphatically as they did a year ago. Just don't blame Dunlap and Cho for this mess. The groundwork was laid a long time ago.
Prediction: 16-66, tied for fourth in Southeast, tied for 14th in East
― moullet, Thursday, 25 October 2012 23:45 (thirteen years ago)
orlando magic
Questions, questions. So many questions. Why did Dwight Howard opt in when they had a perfectly good deal with the Nets ready to go? Why'd they fire Stan Van Gundy if they knew they were trading Howard anyway? How come Ryan Anderson was thrown out with the bath water? And finally, why did they finally take the Howard deal with the Lakers?
What's certain about the Orlando Magic is they are a full-blown do-over. Trading their all-world center to the Lakers for assorted pieces was only one part of this. They also dismissed general manager Otis Smith and brought in Rob Hennigan from Oklahoma City to try to undo the damage from Smith's reign of overly generous contracts. More surprisingly, they dismissed Van Gundy -- by any standard, one of the most successful coaches of his generation -- and turned to San Antonio assistant Jacque Vaughn to lead the rebuilding.
Hennigan and Vaughn are respected names in this business, so there's no argument with those choices. But the wake of the Howard trade left some wondering how much interference was coming from newly promoted team CEO Alex Martins, who had no experience on the basketball side but was promoted after former president Bob Vander Weide resigned.
The bizarreness extended far beyond the Howard dealings. Trying to stay under the luxury tax for the first time in eons, Orlando had a choice between paying a 30-year-old point guard or a 23-year-old power forward who had just won the league's Most Improved Player award. Guess which one they picked.
Regardless of those choices, the hard work is just beginning -- and that was going to be the case no matter which Howard deal they took and what resolutions they reached with Jameer Nelson and Anderson. They've made things harder than they perhaps could have been, but this was going to be a long, ugly slog any way you slice it.
Glen Davis and Jameer NelsonRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesWith Dwight Howard gone, Glen Davis and Jameer Nelson will have bigger responsibilities this season.
Despite all the drama over Howard's inevitable departure, the Magic had themselves a decent season. Largely, that was because even a half-motivated Howard was still a better center than anyone else in the league. But Orlando also got a breakout year from Anderson, who won the league's Most Improved Player award, and perhaps the best season of J.J. Redick's career. The Anderson-Howard combo up front was particularly potent offensively, allowing the Magic to achieve solid efficiency despite anemic backcourt production.
Howard and Anderson provided two sides of the secondary percentage coin, with Howard leading the NBA in free throw attempts by a comfortable margin (even though he missed 12 games!) and Anderson stroking a league-high 166 3-pointers. Combined, they were the reason Orlando was second only to Oklahoma City in secondary percentage, at 9.27. The Magic were also just 16th in 2-point shooting but ranked 10th in TS%.
The 3s were a bigger factor than the free throws, as Howard's presence in the middle tended to open the perimeter for others and Van Gundy exploits this to its maximum possible advantage. More than a third of Orlando's shots were 3s (34.6 percent, to be exact), which was easily the highest figure in the league. The Magic were also extremely accurate from there, making 37.5 percent to rank third in the league, and as a result punished opponents who sagged on Howard.
It will surprise nobody to learn the Magic were last in the NBA in free throw shooting, at 66 percent, thanks to Howard's off-line deliveries, but the impact of this can be overstated: Even for Orlando, getting to the line was vastly more beneficial than any other result. Despite finishing 16th in 2-point shooting, 20th in offensive rebounding and 24th in turnover rate, the Magic rode the concept of secondary percentage to the 14th-best efficiency mark, one that was more than a full point above the league average.
Defensively, however, they slipped. Orlando had always been an elite defensive team with the combination of Howard's dominance in the middle and Van Gundy's schemes, but last season it began to fall apart. Howard's tepid commitment was more apparent at this end, and so was the breakdown of the rest of the roster thanks to the wayward spending of the Otis Smith era.
Most 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, 2011-12Team 3A/FGAOrlando .346New York .288New Jersey .278Dallas .271L.A. Clippers .269
The Magic couldn't stop quick guards, lacked a wing stopper and couldn't force turnovers. Despite finishing second in defensive rebound rate, they were just 14th overall in defensive efficiency; while luck played a small role (their opponents shot a league-best 77.2 percent from the line), the Magic did nothing particularly well besides rebound, and despite Howard's presence, they were shockingly bad at blocking shots (27th).
Nonetheless, the biggest issue Orlando faced was having only two good players. Howard and Anderson were killers, but nobody else had a PER above the league average and three rotation players finished with single-digit PERs (Quentin Richardson, Earl Clark and Chris Duhon). A head-scratching trade of Brandon Bass for Glen Davis only magnified the talent-drain problem.
Orlando made the playoffs despite losing Howard to a back injury at the end, and even managed to play fairly competitively against Indiana before falling in five games, with Davis having an encouraging finishing stretch. Nonetheless, the takeaway from the Howard-less finish was a rather discouraging one: The Magic went 5-12 in the 17 games without him.
Arron AfflaloGarrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty ImagesArron Afflalo, who was acquired from the Nuggets, is expected to take on a scoring role.
Obviously, the Howard deal was the biggest move, but Orlando also made several other deals to try to set up its post-Howard future, with mixed results. Also, a little-discussed option is that the Magic can buyout Hedo Turkoglu after the season to have max cap room over the summer. (Really, why wouldn't they? He's guaranteed only $6 million anyway.)
Traded Dwight Howard, Earl Clark and Chris Duhon to the Lakers and Jason Richardson to Philadelphia; received Arron Afflalo and Al Harrington from Denver, Josh McRoberts and Christian Eyenga from the Lakers, Nikola Vucevic and Moe Harkless from Denver and four draft picks: Surprisingly, Orlando made a deal that was pretty close to cap-neutral; while it got the Magic under the luxury tax, the primary return from this trade was assets. Scribes talked about Orlando having cap space in 2014, but that was going to happen anyway; this deal did nothing to further that aim. (Or help the Magic much in 2012-13, for that matter; the Turkoglu option was in play either way).
One surprise is how heavily protected the draft picks are, including a 2015 second-rounder for the Lakers that its top-40 protected (!). The Lakers also sent a first-rounder in 2017 with top-five protection; the Magic get a 2015 first-rounder from Philly that is lottery protected and the lesser of Denver or New York's pick in 2014. Basically, they got three late-first-round picks out of this, plus effectively two others (Harkless and Vucevic from the trade).
The curve on draft position versus eventual production suggests that Orlando would have been better off with fewer picks higher in the draft -- such as the guaranteed lottery pick from Toronto that Houston was dangling -- and that was one of my two major misgivings with the trade.
The other is that Orlando took back two assets of limited value from Denver. Afflalo is a decent player but overpaid at $30 million over the next four seasons, while Harrington is a Fluke Rule player and, more importantly, a poor fit on a rebuilding team laden with power forwards. It's not clear the Magic will be able to move either player easily.
Signed-and-traded Ryan Anderson to New Orleans for Gustavo Ayon. In all the bewilderment over the Howard trade, we shouldn't lose sight of the bewilderment at trading Anderson after his breakout 2011-12 season. Ayon is an underrated player, so that part of the trade shouldn't be sneezed at, but Anderson was one of the most impactful offensive players in basketball because of his ability to generate points without empty trips. Instead, for roughly the same cap hit, Orlando did the following ...
Re-signed Jameer Nelson for three years, $25 million. One suspects Orlando's management made this decision with their hearts rather than their heads. The unquestioned locker room leader in O-town through the Howard era, Nelson earned a lot of respect and might prove valuable in shepherding some of the younger guys through the nightly beatings this year. Nonetheless, he's a short 30-year-old guard whose best years are clearly behind him. The third year is only half-guaranteed, but this was still a major, major reach. The fact it effectively cost them Anderson only makes it worse.
Drafted Andrew Nicholson and Kyle O'Quinn. The Magic made this move before acquiring three other power forwards in the Howard trade, and the result is a rather crowded frontcourt situation that might resolve itself via trade at some point this season. Certainly, Nicholson will need to get minutes in a rebuilding program like this one, and a lot of scouts also have a soft spot for O'Quinn's lunch-pail game. Somewhere on the periphery, 2011 second-rounder Justin Harper also lurks.
Obviously, it's very difficult to get all three time, especially with three other frontcourt players -- Ayon, Davis, and Vucevic -- virtually assured minutes. At a minimum, it would seem Orlando needs to reroute McRoberts and Harrington, neither of whom would seem to fit Orlando's rebuilding agenda, but they might spend half a year showcasing them first.
Re-signed Ishmael Smith for two years, minimum. Smith earned himself another chance with a decent showing late in the season and gets a chance to establish himself as a credible full-time backup.
JJ ReddickDouglas Jones/US PresswireCan J.J. Redick provide some of the scoring punch lost with the departure of Ryan Anderson?
Back to the stone age, basically. After winning big with Howard, the Magic are retrenching in a major way. They've left themselves with a lot of flexibility but precious little talent, and most of the assets they own are of the second-tier variety.
The best one they have is a $17.8 million trade exception from the Howard deal, one they'd be most likely to use after the season because using it now would put them into the luxury tax. Nonetheless, this is a big weapon they could potentially use to add a high-salaried player another team is trying to dump.
The problem, of course, is that a great many trade exceptions go unused, and this could be the next in the bunch; Orlando could just as easily waive Turkoglu and have nearly as much space under the cap anyway.
In the meantime, the Magic will have the same mediocrity that surrounded Howard a year ago, only without Howard. Regardless of how good Vaughn is, he'll be hard-pressed to match Van Gundy's achievements with the defense, and offensively the absence of Anderson is likely to be felt just as much as Howard's departure. Again, the Howard-Anderson combination was the only thing that kept this team from being horrible a year ago, and both those guys are gone. Ayon is the lone Orlando player who projects to have a PER above the league average.
If there's a silver lining here, it's ... oh, who are we kidding? There's no silver lining. The Magic lost their superstar center, their rising star power forward and their elite head coach. It's going to take a long time for them to recover, and there's no guarantee the lottery will save them the way it has twice previously.
Prediction: 16-66, tied for 4th in Southeast, tied for 14th in East
― moullet, Monday, 29 October 2012 16:24 (thirteen years ago)
And now, the reckoning begins. With no Steve Nash around to cushion the impact of multitudes of bad decisions, the Phoenix Suns enter a new phase of rebuilding, albeit one that features a roster that is neither terribly young nor terribly talented. About the best that can be said for this roster, at the moment, is that it's cheap -- the Suns are still several million dollars below the salary cap -- and that there's plenty of cap flexibility going forward.
Otherwise, the transition from "Seven Seconds or Less" to "50 Losses or More" seems nearly complete, with Jared Dudley and Channing Frye the last of the old guard that went to the 2010 conference finals. (Pedants will note Goran Dragic left and has since returned.)
However, since owner Robert Sarver shoved out former GM Steve Kerr after that deep playoff run, the Suns have been in a death spiral. A horrific 2010 offseason with Sarver essentially serving as his own GM has proved difficult to expunge, as the contracts given to Josh Childress and Hakim Warrick tied up the Suns' cap. Other dubious decisions (such as trading Dragic and a first-round pick to Houston for Aaron Brooks) only doubled down on the Suns' talent drain, leaving a roster that pales next to that 2009-10 club at every spot except Dudley's.
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Suns' roster. Player Profiles Insider
The good news is Sarver eventually got around to hiring a front office, and while team president Lon Babby and GM Lance Blanks haven't hit any home runs yet or even many singles, they've avoided the kind of colossal blunders that put the Suns in this mess in the first place.
The problem, of course, is that they're going to need a pretty big mop. They've at least started down that road by using their amnesty to waive Childress and by dumping Warrick as a rider to the Robin Lopez trade with New Orleans. The Suns haven't been bad enough to get high draft picks yet, but that likely will change this season. Additionally, they have a total of three first-rounders in the 2013 draft and another extra one coming in 2015.
The Suns also shifted their mindset to value shopping, and while you can question some of the valuations (Michael Beasley for $18 million?), you can at least respect that they're trying to get younger and take some chances on talent, with low-cost vets such as Luis Scola and Jermaine O'Neal thrown in. They'll have enough space to offer a max free-agent contract next summer if they so choose, and sans Childress and Warrick, there isn't an onerous deal left on their books.
Unfortunately, there's just no easy way to deal with the fact that last season they were a veteran team propped up by Nash, and now there's no Nash. Most likely, this team will have to get considerably worse before it gets better.
NashChristian Petersen/Getty ImagesAfter eight seasons in Phoenix, Steve Nash finally said goodbye to the Suns at the end of 2011-12.
Somehow, the Suns persevered, even after a 12-19 start that fulfilled everybody's expectations of them as a lottery team. The defense slowly came together, Nash kept orchestrating the offense and the Suns started winning. Phoenix won 21 of its next 32 games to climb all the way to the No. 8 position in the West, but it couldn't handle a three-game season-closing stretch against three playoff teams in the Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs. The game in Utah was effectively an elimination contest and proved a season-ender, leaving only a farewell game for Nash in the finale.
W-L: 33-33 (Pythagorean W-L: 32-34)Offensive Efficiency: 103.5 (9th)Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (23rd)Pace Factor: 95.0 (9th)Highest PER: Marcin Gortat (21.21)
While the Suns finished 23rd overall in defense, it's worth noting they made considerable improvement as the season went on, and it played a major role in their turnaround. While some of this is owed to since-departed vets such as Grant Hill and Lopez, there's also the fact that they stopped playing Warrick (who was killing them) and abandoned an ill-fated experiment to use Ronnie Price at shooting guard.
By the end, they still weren't great, but they were effective enough that Nash could win games for them at the offensive end. The Suns had a low foul rate and their opponent true shooting percentage was within a whisker of the league average, but a lack of athleticism plagued them. This was most visible in their rebound and turnover totals, both of which were well south of the league average, and as a result, opponents averaged 0.98 shots per possession against them -- the sixth-worst figure in the league. Basically, they were beaten by quantity, not quality.
Offensively, the Suns succeeded despite not having the usual complement of shooters to benefit from Nash's deliveries. Phoenix shot only 34.3 percent on 3-pointers and didn't take them at a particularly high rate. However, the Suns' 49.4 percent mark on 2s was the fifth best; Nash and Marcin Gortat (55.5 percent) both cleaned up from short range, while Dudley and Sebastian Telfair surprisingly ranked among the league's best midrange shooters.
Hill/NashGetty ImagesThe Suns turned a big page this summer by allowing both Grant Hill and Steve Nash to flee to L.A.
In addition to the Suns' other woes, they were dealt a tough blow just before training camp when doctors discovered Frye had a heart problem that likely will cost him the season.
Offered max offer sheet to Eric Gordon: The Suns had max cap space entering the summer and targeted Hornets guard Gordon with their cash. While this was an overspend, they were at least doing it with a young player at a difficult position to fill (shooting guard). Unfortunately for them, New Orleans matched the offer and they had to move on to Plan B, which apparently was to keep their powder dry for 2013.
Signed-and-traded Steve Nash to the Lakers for two first-round picks and two second-round picks: There was no way to get equal value for Nash, but the deal with L.A. at least gives the Suns a couple of minor building blocks for whatever comes next. Realistically, they should have dealt him a year or two earlier, but hanging on to him was as much an emotional decision as a practical one.
As a parting gift, they get the least favorable 2013 first-round pick of either the Lakers, Heat, Kings or Cavaliers (which L.A. originally acquired as part of the Ramon Sessions trade). I think you can eliminate the Cavs and Kings from that equation, given their expectations for this coming season, and assume the Suns will pick between 28th and 30th with the Miami or L.A. pick. The 2015 pick from the Lakers is completely unprotected, and the Suns get a second-round pick in 2013 from Denver that moves to 2014 if it's in the top 40 (it won't be). The other second-round pick from the Lakers was sent to New Orleans in the Lopez trade below.
Signed Goran Dragic for four years, $30 million: This was a reasonable gamble for Phoenix given that Dragic thrived in a similar system in Houston the season before and that he's quite familiar with the Suns from his previous tenure there. He's a different player from Nash -- a scorer rather than a passer -- but he'll be the focal point of the offense until further notice. The fourth year to this deal is a player option, so it's possible the Suns will have him for only three.
Let Grant Hill go; signed Michael Beasley for three years, $18 million: The decision to let Hill go was a pretty easy one -- while he was still an effective defender, the rest of his game slipped last season, and at age 40, he was of little use to a rebuilding team.
As for the Beasley signing, this seems like a reach. Beasley's best hope for redemption is as a faceup 4, but he won't be able to play there for the Suns. Additionally, the Suns spent enough that they're going to commit to him as a starter at the 3 and likely force better players (Dudley or Shannon Brown) to come off the bench behind him. There's talent here so I don't want to dismiss this move entirely, but the Suns paid a lot for a player with a great many warts and one who fits less than ideally into the current structure.
Signed-and-traded Robin Lopez, Hakim Warrick and a second-round pick to New Orleans for Brad Miller, Jerome Dyson, Wes Johnson and a first-round pick from Minnesota: Who'd have thunk it -- the Suns dumped Warrick's contract and received a first-round pick in the same deal. That said, this deal looked better when they thought Frye would be healthy and play backup center, rendering Lopez irrelevant. From that perspective, exchanging Lopez for a protected 2013 first-round pick from the Wolves that New Orleans had lying around seemed like a wise move. Instead, it leaves the Suns thin in the frontcourt behind Gortat.
As for the others, Miller had a nonguaranteed deal (except for $848,000 of it) and was waived, as was Dyson, while Johnson is little more than end-of-bench filler on the wings after a pair of horrifying seasons in Minnesota; that's why the Wolves threw the Suns a first-round pick just to take his $4.3 million deal off their hands.
Won the rights to Luis Scola in amnesty auction for three years, $13.5 million: You can argue the Suns' bid for Scola was on the high side given the team's rebuilding nature and the fact that Scola's play dropped off last season. You can't argue, however, that Scola doesn't give them a genuine low-post threat and a legit starting power forward, two things they didn't have last season.
Drafted Kendall Marshall: Marshall is a heck of a passer, so in this system, there's a chance he could really thrive. He'll have to earn his way onto the court first, however, as Dragic and Telfair both are on the depth chart ahead of him. Don't be surprised if the Suns trade Telfair at some point this season to give Marshall a more prominent role.
Signed Jermaine O'Neal for one year, minimum: After keeping Nash ambulatory and resuscitating Michael Redd, the increasingly ambitious Suns medical staff now seeks to prove it can do damn near anything by attempting to revive O'Neal. Hugely injury-prone and largely wooden in recent seasons, he's the backup center of record with Frye out of the lineup and will be asked to fortify a permissive defense. He probably can still do that on his better nights, but offensively, he's dead weight.
Let Michael Redd go; signed P.J. Tucker for two years, $1.6 million: Tucker played in Europe the past few years after a brief cameo with Toronto in 2006-07, and it's a bit surprising he's back given that his translated European stats weren't particularly impressive. A 4 in a 3's body, he'll have to prove he can make perimeter shots and defend wings. The good news is that it's a nonguaranteed deal.
SunsBarry Gossage/Getty ImagesPhoenix surely will have a different feel this season ... and a few more notches in the loss column.
I joked about the Suns' medical staff above, but that might be the one sustainable advantage this team can point to as a reason for it to exceed expectations. Otherwise, the outlook seems pretty bleak. Phoenix lost the maestro who orchestrated much of its offensive success, and while Dragic is no slouch himself, he's not Steve Nash.
Remember, there were other losses, too. The frontcourt is thin without Frye, the wings are iffy with Beasley as a starter and Johnson seemingly needing to play minutes as the fourth wing, and there is the lack of star power.
Moreover, last season's weaknesses remain. This is still one of the league's least athletic teams. A Gortat-Scola frontcourt isn't scaring anybody, Dudley is the closest thing the Suns have to a wing stopper and first-rounder Marshall is another B athlete (at best). Bench players such as O'Neal, Markieff Morris, Johnson and Telfair don't exactly form a track and field juggernaut, either. The only elite athletes, arguably, are Dragic and Beasley.
There are some positives if you look hard enough. Coach Alvin Gentry will keep everybody positive and on track, Gortat and Scola should provide enough skillful scoring to offset their defensive disadvantages, and it's possible either Dragic or Beasley will break out.
But there are just too many weak links. In a conference as unforgiving as this one, that's going to spell a long season. One can argue the Suns need it, as starved as they were of high picks in the Nash years. Cash in on the three draft picks and free agency next summer, and perhaps their stay at the bottom of the conference will be brief. But they're definitely booking a room here.
Prediction: 24-58, 5th in Pacific, 15th in Western Conference
― moullet, Monday, 29 October 2012 16:25 (thirteen years ago)
had a great reading thunder profile ... seems like harden eff. was a huge part of their offense
― moullet, Monday, 29 October 2012 16:26 (thirteen years ago)
he said he's going to make some revisions to that one
― all mods con (k3vin k.), Monday, 29 October 2012 16:38 (thirteen years ago)
is there a player profile for sheed
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:13 (thirteen years ago)
Old. If he plays the Knicks are in trouble.
― EZ Snappin, Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:13 (thirteen years ago)
thanks professor snappin
― turds (Hungry4Ass), Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:16 (thirteen years ago)
no problem.
― EZ Snappin, Thursday, 1 November 2012 02:17 (thirteen years ago)
Predictions: Impact of Harden trade
What does the Oklahoma City-Houston trade do to our season forecast?
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
I discussed the trade of James Harden to Houston in big-picture terms over the weekend, but now we need to break down the nitty-gritty. In terms of wins and losses for this season, how does this impact the Rockets and Thunder?
The more important estimate, obviously, regards the Thunder, as the trade potentially opens up the Western Conference race much more for other rivals.
For starters, I think we can safely assume that the pieces these teams landed are by and large the ones that will play all season for them. Harden, clearly, isn't going anywhere -- he'll have a five-year max deal by the time you're done handing out candy on Wednesday. The other pieces Houston received are fungible and have no impact on its projection. Similarly, Jeremy Lamb isn't moving anytime soon, and Kevin Martin seems unlikely to relocate without a Godfather-type offer from another club.
(And for those talking up the idea of the Thunder repackaging Martin's expiring contract and the draft picks for another big-name piece, whom did you have in mind? James Harden? The Thunder just made the inverse of said trade for a reason).
As a result, we can fairly cleanly analyze the difference pre- and post-trade. Before the trade, my model had the Thunder winning 58 games. Taking Harden and Daequan Cook out of the Thunder rotation and adding in Lamb and Martin takes them down a peg, even though I projected Martin to do better in Oklahoma City than I had him doing in Houston. (This is subjective, but I do think he'll be better; he was second in the league in points per minute two seasons ago before Kevin McHale's system took the ball out of his hands, and he should have the rock more as a go-to guy for the Thunder's second unit.)
Keeping Martin's other adjustments the same (dings for injury proneness and defense), using my standard rookie score for Jeremy Lamb (here, I leave my ad-libs out of it and estimate a performance based purely on draft position) and tweaking minutes for other players to adjust for the Thunder likely playing a bit more smallball, and I end up at 54 wins for the Thunder.
That's a four-win drop, and at the margin you can see the impact this might have on their title chances -- 58 wins screams contender, while 54 hints more meekly at the chance of a deep playoff run. While it doesn't affect their projected seeding at all, the Thunder grade out as a less-formidable regular-season outfit, and that carries over to how well they project for the postseason, too.
All of which makes sense. You don't make a trade like this, largely motivated by cap considerations and draft picks, without taking a step back in the short term.
As a result, I have to revise my earlier projection that the Thunder would come out of the West in the postseason. I now would rate San Antonio and the Lakers as having a better chance, and with L.A. getting annihilated every night in preseason I would give the upper hand to San Antonio. Yes, I'm going with the Spurs to win the West, topping the Thunder in a revenge-tinged conference finals. (And yes, I know L.A.'s preseason has several mitigating factors, starting with the fact it's, you know, preseason. Still, not a great omen.)
So if I have the Thunder dropping four wins, you might assume I have Houston gaining four. You'd be wrong. These things aren't always linear -- depending on which players are replaced and how minutes are redistributed, trades can have non-matching outcomes.
Like this one, for instance. I plugged in Harden as a starting shooting guard with a full complement of minutes, upped Carlos Delfino's minutes with Lamb gone and threw in an end-of-rotation wing from Houston's many choices (I'd originally gone with Gary Forbes, but apparently the Rockets plan to cut him, so now it's Marcus Morris -- it scarcely matters whether it's one of those two, or Toney Douglas or Daequan Cook or Sam Hinkie that gets these limited minutes).
The result? Houston bumps all the way up to 37 wins from my initial projection of 27, as adding a full minutes complement of All-Star-caliber wing play represents a major upgrade from Martin's projection (both in minutes and quality). Also, a small portion of the projected improvement comes from a tanking tweak in my model -- basically, the Rockets project to stay in the playoff race long enough that they'll still give a crap in March and April, and that adds a win to their total.
Alas, our work is not done. Since I have Houston adding 10 wins and the Thunder dropping only four, there's some housekeeping that needs to happen to even things out. I had to grab six wins back from the league's other 28 teams to even the league out at a combined 1230 wins and 1230 losses.
In practice, I did this by sucking 6/28th of a win from every club's projection. After that, five teams ended up with their win total rounded down rather than up and lost a win; in other words, Minnesota's projection went from 43.6 to 43.3, so after rounding it kicks the Wolves down from 44 wins to 43. Sacramento, Brooklyn, New York and Milwaukee all suffered similar dings.
With one win left to reclaim and Philadelphia's Andrew Bynum yet to take the court, that seemed like an obvious choice to grab a final win away and even the till.
Finally, in the process of revising the estimates for Houston and Oklahoma City, I discovered that my initial set of projections had inadvertently jobbed the Magic out of a win. Break out the champagne, Orlando: You're now No. 29.
As a result, my revised predicted standings now look like this:
ATLANTIC div conf SOUTHWEST div confBoston 48 34 1 3 San Antonio 60 22 1 1Brooklyn 46 36 2 4 Memphis 50 32 2 5Philadelphia 45 37 3 5 Dallas 42 40 3 9New York 44 38 4 7 Houston 37 45 4 11Toronto 33 49 5 12 New Orleans 30 52 5 13
CENTRAL div conf NORTHWEST div confIndiana 52 30 1 2 Denver 59 23 1 2Chicago 43 39 2 8 Oklahoma City 54 28 2 3Milwaukee 37 45 3 10 Utah 44 38 3 7Cleveland 34 48 4 11 Minnesota 43 39 4 8Detroit 27 55 5 13 Portland 27 55 5 14
SOUTHEAST div conf PACIFIC div confMiami 64 18 1 2 LA Lakers 53 29 1 4Atlanta 45 37 2 5 LA Clippers 47 35 2 6Washington 38 44 3 9 Golden State 40 42 3 10Orlando 17 65 4 14 Sacramento 31 51 4 12Charlotte 16 66 5 15 Phoenix 24 58 5 15
― moullet, Thursday, 1 November 2012 03:04 (thirteen years ago)
lol fun predictions w professor perfectionists
― moullet, Thursday, 1 November 2012 03:05 (thirteen years ago)
1Kevin DurantAGE: 24DOB: 9/29/88HT: 6-9WT: 235POS: SF
PPG: 29.3APG: 3.0RPG: 6.73-YR WARP: 45.1
Current: He's the clear choice for the world's second best player, having already proven he's the league's top pure scorer. Durant was remarkable in getting OKC to the NBA Finals last season, and he is a better all-around player now, adding crisper ball movement and defensive playmaking. He also has learned how to score best in crunch time, by using his ball handling and size to create great shots. He's a reluctant superstar and a consummate team player, perhaps behind only Tim Duncan as the best teammate in the NBA. -- David ThorpeFuture: Can Durant actually get better? A 50-40-90 season while using nearly 30 percent of his team's plays is probably the upper bound on his scoring, but Durant also continues to round out the rest of his game. His improved defense and rebounding mean, like LeBron James, Durant might end up as a matchup nightmare at power forward on a regular basis as he ages. -- Kevin PeltonLAST TIME: 1 | PLAYER CARD
2Russell WestbrookAGE: 24DOB: 11/12/88HT: 6-3WT: 187POS: PG
PPG: 22.7APG: 8.3RPG: 5.33-YR WARP: 34.2
Current: Had Rose been healthy, it would have made for a fun debate. And Westbrook might still have ranked No. 2. His will to win is almost unmatched, and no player has a bigger advantage than Westbrook does as an athlete at his position. He still takes too many jumpers early in possessions, but no one can question his commitment to winning because of how many astounding plays he makes to accomplish that goal. Improved ball handling and patience have made him a better set-up man. -- ThorpeFuture: Though Westbrook is just 24, his WARP projections show he's near his peak. Shoot-first point guards tend to top out earlier than players at other positions. To avoid that fate, Westbrook will have to find more balance in his shoot/pass ratios as he relies less on otherworldly athleticism to finish around the rim. This season's improvement to league average from beyond the arc also is encouraging. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 6 | PLAYER CARD
3Blake GriffinAGE: 23DOB: 3/16/89HT: 6-10WT: 251POS: PF
PPG:17.8BPG: 0.6RPG: 8.43-YR WARP: 34.2
Current: Ignore those spectacular dunks, and Griffin still remains one of the league's best "bucket-getters," with explosive inside moves and counters of which he makes more than 70 percent. He is an underrated ball handler and passer, which makes him even more difficult to defend. Griffin is much better as a positional defender now, and one of the top defensive rebounders in the game. He has improved his perimeter shooting, and is a reliable free throw stroke away from being a complete player in all phases. -- ThorpeFuture: Griffin has made steady improvement to his outside game. Hoopdata.com shows Griffin's accuracy from 16-23 feet improving from 33 percent as a rookie to 37 percent last season and 39 percent so far in 2012-13, which is better than average. Griffin's increasing versatility will give the Clippers more options on offense and make him more difficult to defend. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 5 | PLAYER CARD
4James HardenAGE: 23DOB: 8/26/89HT: 6-5WT: 220POS: SG
PPG: 25.8APG: 5.3RPG: 4.43-YR WARP: 36.6
Current: Harden has grown into one of the top offensive players in the NBA. He has got great vision and anticipates defenders well, which gives him a decided advantage as a scorer or passer. He's solid on the perimeter and very tough to defend off the dribble with or without ball screens because of his power and ability to change speeds. He has proven he can be the best player on his team and still drive that team to a good record and a likely playoff appearance. -- ThorpeFuture: Believe it or not, Harden has this group's best WARP projection for 2013-14. Because these projections are based on a small pool of similar players, that doesn't mean Harden will actually leapfrog former teammates Durant and Westbrook, but it does indicate he belongs in the conversation. As Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade age, Harden could soon emerge as the league's top 2-guard. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 8 | PLAYER CARD
5Derrick RoseAGE: 24DOB: 10/4/88HT: 6-3WT: 190POS: PG
PPG: 21.8APG: 7.9RPG: 3.43-YR WARP: 31.7
Current: Rose has a lot of Durant in him, as he is a "reluctant" superstar, which is why his teammates love him so much. He is talent and humility personified. When healthy, he is the most explosive one-on-one dribble-drive threat at the point of attack in the game. His work ethic made him a respectable shooter, and though he does not have great vision, he is happy to pass if that is the best option. Rose has become an elite pick-and-roll player. -- ThorpeFuture: Research doesn't bear out the conventional wisdom that players are better in their second year back from a torn ACL. Still, ACL repair has improved to the point that Rose is unlikely to see serious long-term ramifications. Look for him to resume his place as one of the league's top players as soon as he's fully healthy. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 2 | PLAYER CARD
6Kyrie IrvingAGE: 20DOB: 3/23/92HT: 6-3WT: 191POS: PG
PPG: 23.1APG: 5.7RPG: 3.63-YR WARP: 35.1
Current: Already one of the league's top players. Irving combines offensive skill better than any player on this list, and far better than anyone at this age in recent memory. He has proven he can carry his team with impressive offensive explosions that range from the 3-point line to the paint. Irving plays with a high IQ and is disciplined at shot selection, and would be even more effective on a good team. Irving is a future MVP candidate. -- ThorpeFuture: In a couple of seasons, Irving might lead this list. Among this group, he ranks behind just Durant and Griffin in terms of projected WARP during the 2015-16 season. Irving came into the league so advanced he won't have to spend much time perfecting his jumper. Instead, Irving's bigger area of improvement will be at the defensive end, where he must get stronger. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 9 | PLAYER CARD
7Serge IbakaAGE: 23DOB: 9/18/89HT: 6-10WT: 235POS: PF
PPG: 13.9BPG: 2.8RPG: 8.43-YR WARP: 17.9
Current: Ibaka is one of the few players in this league who can dominate the paint defensively, make numerous plays above the rim on both sides of the court, and be a consistent threat with his jump shot. That outside shooting is a key, as it helps his team's offense enormously with great spacing -- and none of the premier shot blockers in the league can shoot as well as Ibaka can, save Duncan. Ibaka now plays like an experienced veteran, not the raw talent of previous seasons. -- ThorpeFuture: Per Basketball-Reference.com, only three players in NBA history (Andrei Kirilenko, Raef LaFrentz and Josh Smith) have made even 25 3-pointers during a season in which they averaged 2.0 blocks per game. If he continues to expand his range, Ibaka could create a new stereotype. He's 7-of-23 from beyond the arc this season after taking six triples in his first three seasons combined. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 20 | PLAYER CARD
8Kevin LoveAGE: 24DOB: 9/7/88HT: 6-10WT: 260POS: PF
PPG: 18.3BPG: 0.5RPG: 14.03-YR WARP: 40.5
Current: This is awfully high for a player who has broken his hand twice this season and played well, not great, when he did appear in 18 games. But few players have done what he has done in his young career. He's not just the best rebounder/perimeter shooter in the league, he's the best that has ever played. Love is also a tough guy to slow down in the post, and is an underrated defender because of his strength and his talent at getting great defensive position. -- ThorpeFuture: Only Durant has a better WARP projection than Love's, who should suffer no long-term issues from a season marred by injuries. Love boasts two MVPs with very different styles as his best comparables. No. 1 on his list is Dirk Nowitzki; No. 2 is former Minnesota star Kevin Garnett. It's worth watching whether Love continues to drift to the perimeter like Nowitzki or refocuses down low like Garnett. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 3 | PLAYER CARD
9Brook LopezAGE: 24DOB: 4/1/88HT: 7-0WT: 265POS: C
PPG: 18.6BPG: 2.1RPG: 7.33-YR WARP: 20.1
Current: Injuries and bad coaching have always tarnished Lopez, as has his own seeming disinterest for rebounding. But with better players around him he has overcome that bad coaching and become a dominant center in a league that has few. He's one of the NBA's best finishers in shots up to 15 feet and, as dominating centers should, he pounds the defense with a strong paint presence rather than just float outside. He's a solid defender and the best player, by far, on a playoff team. -- ThorpeFuture: Lopez's ability as a low-post scorer has never been in question. His improvement at the other end in 2012-13 will help his chances of living up to a max contract. Lopez is blocking shots at the best rate of his career and has also stepped up his subpar defensive rebounding. That's important because such skills rarely develop in the NBA. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 25 | PLAYER CARD
10Stephen CurryAGE: 24DOB: 3/14/88HT: 6-3WT: 185POS: PG
PPG: 20.6APG: 6.6RPG: 4.13-YR WARP: 23.5
Current: Curry entered the NBA with one of the purest and quickest shooting strokes coming from college. Outside of injuries, he has not disappointed. With an excellent coach who inspires team defense, Curry is captaining a team with a true shot at the playoffs this season. It's his shooting, though, that earns him a top-10 spot on this list, as he ranks one of the elite few shooters on Earth -- perhaps the best ever. That is a weapon of extreme value, even more so come playoff time when interior buckets are tougher to get. -- ThorpeFuture: Just stay healthy. Whenever Curry has been on the court, he has produced, but fans will continue to cringe every time he lands hard on his right ankle after a pair of surgeries. Curry's ability to play either guard position -- he has been effective finishing games off the ball next to Jarrett Jack -- gives Golden State plenty of strategic flexibility going forward. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 14 | PLAYER CARD
11Kenneth FariedAGE: 23DOB: 11/19/89HT: 6-8WT: 228POS: SF
PPG: 12.2APG: 0.9RPG: 9.93-YR WARP: 21.0
Current: On this list, which includes some of the best NBA players overall, Faried tops it in two important categories. He's the quickest "big man" within five feet of space, which is why he's one of the top offensive rebounders in basketball. He also plays with more energy, more often, than any of these 24 guys and 99 percent of the league. That is why he makes so many plays -- he has the motor to make the effort and the quickness to get to the ball first. -- ThorpeFuture: It's hard for an offense to succeed with a power forward who cannot step away from the basket, and Faried is working to develop his shooting. Hoopdata.com shows him attempting more than twice as many shots from 16-23 feet, albeit at a lower percentage his rookie season. Faried must also improve his defensive positioning, since he can be a liability one-on-one. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
12Jrue HolidayAGE: 22DOB: 6/12/90HT: 6-4WT: 205POS: PG
PPG: 19.4APG: 9.0RPG: 4.23-YR WARP: 25.1
Current: As a big-bodied guard with excellent shooting skills in his rookie season, Holiday has morphed into a complete lead guard who can double as a pure scorer when needed. Still younger than many college seniors, he plays like a grizzled veteran in his decision-making and overall control of the game. A borderline All-Star already, Holiday's game truly will explode when he's surrounded by better talent, as he has the hoops IQ to make everyone better. He's learning how to take over games. -- ThorpeFuture: Based on this season's leap forward, Holiday's upside is immense. As Coach Thorpe stated above, Holiday is young -- younger than everyone but Irving ranked ahead of him. So Holiday has at least another couple of seasons of development ahead of him. Already, Holiday has improved his ability to draw contact, an issue in the past. He has already taken more free throws than he did in all of 2011-12. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 24 | PLAYER CARD
13Anthony DavisAGE: 19DOB: 3/11/93HT: 6-10WT: 220POS: PF
PPG: 13.2BPG: 1.9RPG: 8.03-YR WARP: 25.7
Current: No player had a better freshman season in college than Davis, when considering how he did as an individual and how his team did. Davis has a huge impact on the game on both ends of the court, though his offense should be considered a pleasant surprise. He knows how to use his extreme level of athleticism and length but does so under control. His pace of play is impressive, balancing that energy with discipline and a good feel for when and how to make plays. -- ThorpeFuture: As a rookie, Davis has only begun to fulfill the immense potential he showed during his one season at Kentucky. Indeed, Davis is ahead of schedule offensively, but he must bulk up to deal with bigger opponents in the post and become an elite paint defender. That should happen. As he adds strength, Davis will be able to play center, which will open up the Hornets' offense. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
14Greg MonroeAGE: 22DOB: 6/4/90HT: 6-11WT: 250POS: PF/C
PPG: 15.4BPG: 0.6RPG: 9.23-YR WARP: 35.9
Current: Monroe has a very good all-around game; he is a difference-maker on offense with his passing and on defense with his space eating and rebounding. If he finished shots better he would be a top-10 guy here. Monroe has improved greatly since college in playing with more energy and in banging around inside for buckets or to draw fouls. He is a franchise big man waiting for talented teammates to grow up and join him as elite players and playoff contenders. -- ThorpeFuture: Monroe's versatility confuses SCHOENE, which tabs Garnett among his comparables, but also perimeter players such as Grant Hill and Shawn Marion. His skilled offensive game should age well. To become an All-Star, Monroe must improve his defense. He's not a great fit at either frontcourt position because he's slow-footed on the perimeter and a weak shot blocker. Improved positioning can help compensate for those weaknesses. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 7 | PLAYER CARD
15Ryan AndersonAGE: 24DOB: 5/6/88HT: 6-11WT: 240POS: PF
PPG: 16.7BPG: 0.3RPG: 6.83-YR WARP: 31.5
Current: There are few big men in the NBA who can shoot jumpers and 3-pointers as well as Anderson. Fewer even who can also rebound with passion, play with toughness, and make plays with their minds like Anderson. He has an elite-level feel for the game, which is why he frequently outplays men with far better size or athleticism, and he finds openings for his shot like an expert while being selective for where his shots come from. He is solid on defense, as well. -- ThorpeFuture: Gradually, Anderson is showing less dependence on his teammates to set up for high-percentage shots beyond the arc. He has proven that his success wasn't a function of playing with Dwight Howard, and both his usage rate and his percentage of unassisted baskets are up in New Orleans to levels he only reached previously as a second-year reserve in Orlando. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
16Nicolas BatumAGE: 24DOB: 12/14/88HT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SF
PPG: 16.8APG: 4.4RPG: 5.93-YR WARP: 21.2
Current: Batum has transformed from solid starter on a bad team to one of the best two players on a strong playoff contender. He has improved as a shooter and is one of the best few wings in the league at defending ball screens and handoffs -- likely the two most difficult actions for wings to guard. His length and added strength allow him to make plays most can't make, and he's both a legitimate wing scorer and someone who values "Gretzky's" that all-important extra pass; he rarely gets "sticky" with the ball. -- ThorpeFuture: As long as Portland has LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard as its primary options on offense, Batum might not be able to take on many more possessions. Still, Batum's growth as a playmaker this season gives Terry Stotts more options in how to use him. Despite his wingspan, Batum still struggles to defend physical small forwards who can overpower him. Adding strength will help. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 21 | PLAYER CARD
17Thaddeus YoungAGE: 24DOB: 12/14/88HT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SF
PPG: 15.0APG: 1.7RPG: 7.33-YR WARP: 14.0
Current: Young is a dynamic athlete who knows his limits -- a rare thing in today's game. Young can have a big impact on an offense because he almost always makes the right decision with the ball or his own movements. Thus, he is a perfect on-court teammate. He also is very good at cutting quickly, and is one of the league's best wing finishers inside 9 feet. Young's quickness helps him close out shooters in time to impact their shot, so he excels at helping and recovering. -- ThorpeFuture: While Young is thought of as a stretch 4, he's almost completely taken the 3-point shot out of his arsenal, and it will be interesting to see if it ever returns. Young made 56 3-pointers in 2008-09, but over the past two seasons he has made only one in five attempts (one so far in 2012-13). He was decent from downtown, making 33.6 percent career. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 22 | PLAYER CARD
18Paul GeorgeAGE: 22DOB: 5/2/90HT: 6-8WT: 221POS: SF
PPG: 17.3APG: 3.7RPG: 7.73-YR WARP: 18.5
Current: Athleticism, length and toughness have led George toward defensive stardom. He's one of the top-three wing defenders in the NBA and the best defender on the league's best defensive team. He can be both a stopper and a chaos creator, something only a few players can pull off. George finishes possessions by hitting hard the defensive glass, another reason why he enjoys elite status on that end. He's still a work in progress on offense though he's a reliable deep threat and an excellent foul shooter. -- ThorpeFuture: George's development into a go-to scorer was accelerated by Danny Granger's absence, and there's still more room for him to take control of the Indiana offense as Granger ages and Roy Hibbert struggles to score in the post. Improved ball handling will make George more dangerous in the pick-and-roll, which was the source of many of his turnovers during a slow start to the season. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
19DeMarcus CousinsAGE: 22DOB: 8/13/90HT: 6-11WT: 270POS: C
PPG: 17.8BPG: 0.6RPG: 10.43-YR WARP: 34.8
Current: Cousins is a top-five player in pure talent for this list, top 10 for the entire league. But he lets immaturity drag his impact down as a teammate and in on-court production. He is a beast on both backboards, and he clogs up the paint defensively. His emotional issues are part of his willingness to settle for far too many perimeter shots, keeping him from being the consistently dominant offensive player his skills and size says he can be. That talent is enough to be an MVP. -- ThorpeFuture: Though Cousins' attitude will determine his future, he also has room for growth as a player. To thrive as a center, Cousins must reverse the decline in his block rate this season and anchor the paint. Offensively, getting his own shot blocked is holding back Cousins' shooting percentage. His 1.6 blocks against per game are fourth in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 13 | PLAYER CARD
20Brandon JenningsAGE: 23DOB: 9/23/89HT: 6-1WT: 169POS: PG
PPG: 18.6APG: 5.8RPG: 3.63-YR WARP: 32.5
Current: One of the NBA's quickest and slickest ballhandlers, Jennings has always been a fun point guard to play with despite not being blessed with special vision. He makes up for it to some degree with his interest in sharing the ball and making the right play, along with his overall passionate effort. Jennings struggles to shut down opposing offensive-minded players, but he does impact that end by using his quickness to get steals or create turnovers, which have helped his team earn a top-10 defensive ranking. -- ThorpeFuture: SCHOENE loves Jennings' potential, comparing him to Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas and Baron Davis. To get on their level, Jennings must improve his 2-point percentage. He's a poor finisher at the rim against bigger defenders. While critics point to Jennings' 3-point attempts, the real problem is the 3.9 shots per game he takes from 16-23 feet and makes at a similar percentage -- without the benefit of an extra point. -- PeltonLAST TIME: 17 | PLAYER CARD
21Damian LillardAGE: 22DOB: 7/5/90HT: 6-3WT: 195POS: PG
PPG: 18.3APG: 6.6RPG: 3.53-YR WARP: 21.6
Current: Lillard is proving that the line between mid-major and high-major college players is almost non-existent. He's quarterbacking a team through the rugged west and into a strong playoff position. Lillard has a lot of Kyrie Irving in him, a solid athlete with a huge set of skills and an excellent feel for game management. He is poised to see big improvement in the second half of the season, but he already is excellent as a spot-up shooter and pick-and-roll player. -- ThorpeFuture: Because Lillard came into the league so polished, it's difficult to find areas for improvement as a scorer. While he makes good decisions, Lillard can still show growth as a playmaker by seeing more opportunities for passing lanes. Lillard's major growth must come at the defensive end, where he has been abused by top opponents. He has a particularly tough time negotiating screens. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
22Larry SandersAGE: 24DOB: 11/21/88HT: 6-11WT: 235POS: C
PPG: 8.2RPG: 8.5BPG: 3.23-YR WARP: 13.8
Current: The list of premier shot-blockers is small. Sanders is on that list, and he adds an ability to make offensive plays in the pick-and-roll game. He has become an outstanding paint finisher and a big man who is growing more adept at earning buckets inside despite his thin frame. Beyond his shot-blocking prowess, Sanders is hard to score on with a simple post up, allowing his team the option of not doubling the post entry pass -- a huge benefit. -- ThorpeFuture: Sanders suffers the same fate as the other elite shot blockers in this group, though in this case he might belong. This season has demonstrated how Sanders can impact games with his blocks and rebounding, but he still struggles at the other end. Per Hoopdata.com, Sanders has shot just 31.1 percent away from the rim this season. More range will keep defenders honest. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
23DeAndre JordanAGE: 24DOB: 7/21/88HT: 6-11WT: 265POS: C
PPG: 9.0RPG: 7.0BPG: 1.53-YR WARP: 9.5
Current: Jordan has become a decent post-up player with an assortment of moves and counters. Thanks to Chris Paul, he makes a much bigger impact in the transition game, where his physical talents are on full display. He is playing within himself, which allows him to take only shots he can make at a high percentage. Jordan would not be nearly as effective on a lesser team. He is not the defender Sanders is, but is still a key ingredient to an elite defensive team. -- ThorpeFuture: Don't be too concerned about Jordan's poor WARP projections. Like Ibaka, Jordan gets compared to one-dimensional shot blockers who lacked his athleticism. Already, Jordan is on track for more than five WARP this season, and he has got more room for growth as experience helps him improve his basketball IQ. Jordan's best match might be Tyson Chandler, who has continued developing into his 30s. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
24Ed DavisAGE: 23DOB: 6/5/89HT: 6-10WT: 232POS: PF
PPG: 9.2RPG: 6.5BPG: 0.83-YR WARP: 8.9
Current: Davis is finally seeing his production match his potential, and the Raptors are now one of the NBA's hottest teams since he has moved into the starting lineup. Davis has real talent to "feel" out a defense's weaknesses and earn easy baskets by moving to the perfect spot on the floor. He gets a lot of dunks this way, and he finishes a high rate of his non-dunks too. Davis works at rebounding every shot, and does so effectively, while making very few mistakes with the ball. -- ThorpeFuture: With his performance over the past month, Davis has earned the right to stay in the starting lineup after Andrea Bargnani returns, and he might not give up that role for years. Strength remains an issue for the rail-thin Davis, especially in terms of defending the post. MySynergySports.com ranks him 124th out of 152 qualified players in points allowed per post-up. -- PeltonLAST TIME: NR | PLAYER CARD
25Eric BledsoeAGE: 23DOB: 12/9/89HT: 6-1WT: 195POS: PG
PPG: 8.7APG: 2.7RPG: 2.893-YR WARP: 16.9
Current: Bledsoe is a bona-fide starter doing his job backing up Chris Paul. He ranks just behind Westbrook on any athlete scale, and he uses his physical talents to destroy defenders off the dribble and in the paint. He's dramatically improved as a shooter and his ball control, while probably being the best perimeter defender on a top-five defensive team thanks to his power, aggressiveness and quickness. He's one of just a few guards who must be accounted for as an offensive rebounder. -- ThorpeFuture: The main thing Bledsoe needs is minutes, as his performance while Paul was out with a bruised knee demonstrated. Assuming the Clippers hold on to Bledsoe through the trade deadline, improving his 3-point shooting will make it easier for Vinny Del Negro to play him and Paul together in a devastating defensive backcourt. As a starting point guard down the road, Bledsoe will have to cut his high turnover rate. -- Pelton
― moullet, Wednesday, 23 January 2013 03:04 (twelve years ago)
Best 25 Under 25
Thanks for this.
― queef ka queef (Spottie_Ottie_Dope), Wednesday, 23 January 2013 03:17 (twelve years ago)
(assuming they forgot wall)
― moullet, Wednesday, 23 January 2013 03:53 (twelve years ago)
do we want to do this again for haberstroh's?
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Monday, 30 September 2013 19:56 (twelve years ago)