When I throw up the ‘X,’ that means it’s time to put the kids to bed. It’s X-rated out there! The 2011 NFL Week 4 Thread

Detroit at Dallas
Carolina at Chicago
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Cleveland
Minnesota at Kansas City
Washington at St. Louis
New Orleans at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at Houston
San Francisco at Philadelphia
NY Giants at Arizona
Atlanta at Seattle
Miami at San Diego
New England at Oakland
Denver at Green Bay
NY Jets at Baltimore
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

Detroit at Dallas-- Lions
Carolina at Chicago --Bears
Buffalo at Cincinnati--Bills
Tennessee at Cleveland --Browns
Minnesota at Kansas City --VIkings
Washington at St. Louis -- Rams
New Orleans at Jacksonville-- Saints
Pittsburgh at Houston-- Texans
San Francisco at Philadelphia --49ers
NY Giants at Arizona --Giants
Atlanta at Seattle-- Falcons
Miami at San Diego-- Chargers
New England at Oakland-- Raiders
Denver at Green Bay--Packers
NY Jets at Baltimore--Ravens
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay-- Buccaneers

http://i.imgur.com/XZWSv.jpg

Detroit at Dallas
Carolina at Chicago
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Tennessee at Cleveland
Minnesota at Kansas City
Washington at St. Louis
New Orleans at Jacksonville
Pittsburgh at Houston
San Francisco at Philadelphia
NY Giants at Arizona
Atlanta at Seattle
Miami at San Diego
New England at Oakland
Denver at Green Bay
NY Jets at Baltimore
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay

29-19 on the year

Detroit at Dallas-- Lions
Carolina at Chicago --Bears
Buffalo at Cincinnati--Bills
Tennessee at Cleveland --Browns
Minnesota at Kansas City --VIkings
Washington at St. Louis -- Rams
New Orleans at Jacksonville-- Saints
Pittsburgh at Houston-- Texans
San Francisco at Philadelphia --Phi
NY Giants at Arizona --Giants
Atlanta at Seattle-- Falcons
Miami at San Diego-- Chargers
New England at Oakland-- Raiders
Denver at Green Bay--Packers
NY Jets at Baltimore--Ravens
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay-- Buccaneers <--- is this really Monday?

i'm like dante hall / i just throw up the x

shots! shots! shots! shots! shots! shots! shots! shots!

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/27/jason-taylor-chad-henne-is-more-talented-than-mark-sanchez/

wow, what a ringing endorsement!

well tbf, mark sanchez has won two super bowls

10-6 last wk; 34-14 on the season

Detroit at Dallas-- Dallas
Carolina at Chicago --Bears
Buffalo at Cincinnati--Bills
Tennessee at Cleveland --Titans
Minnesota at Kansas City --vikings
Washington at St. Louis -- skins
New Orleans at Jacksonville-- Saints
Pittsburgh at Houston-- pitt
San Francisco at Philadelphia --eagles
NY Giants at Arizona --Giants
Atlanta at Seattle-- Falcons
Miami at San Diego-- Chargers
New England at Oakland-- Pats
Denver at Green Bay--Packers
NY Jets at Baltimore--Jets
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay-- Buccaneers

8 and 8 (yuck) last week, 30-18 overall

Detroit at Dallas - Lions, Romo may die
Carolina at Chicago - Bears should be up and angry for this; it's a major gut check
Buffalo at Cincinnati - GO FITZ
Tennessee at Cleveland - Tennessee but not with any joy
Minnesota at Kansas City - minnesota in the BATTLE OF THE 0z
Washington at St. Louis - Still think the skins are better than they look
New Orleans at Jacksonville - New Orleans should really light up the board here
Pittsburgh at Houston - Houston in a minor upset
San Francisco at Philadelphia - Iggles even with Gregor Samsa at QB
NY Giants at Arizona - Cardinals; the giants seemed lucky to me this week
Atlanta at Seattle - Picking Falcons as my survival choice
Miami at San Diego - Chargers
New England at Oakland - Pats but this should be a solid scrappy game
Denver at Green Bay - THE BELT
NY Jets at Baltimore - Ravens but I'm really unsure about this
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay - bucs over cololts

http://30.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_ls5rzjTPrl1qzjykfo1_400.png

so is it time for us to just accept that Ryan Fitzpatrick is awesome?

im not entirely convinced its that time yet

yeah awesome is a major stretch right now

"better than chad henne" is appropriate, tho.

Detroit at Dallas - Lions
Carolina at Chicago - Bears Bears Bears
Buffalo at Cincinnati - Biiiiiills
Tennessee at Cleveland - Browns
Minnesota at Kansas City - CHIEFZ
Washington at St. Louis - Skins
New Orleans at Jacksonville - Saints
Pittsburgh at Houston - Texans
San Francisco at Philadelphia - Eagles
NY Giants at Arizona - Cards
Atlanta at Seattle - Falcons
Miami at San Diego - Chargers
New England at Oakland - PATS
Denver at Green Bay - Pack
NY Jets at Baltimore - Ravens
Indianapolis at Tampa Bay - Bucs

y'know, these threads would be way more exciting if we actually guessed on the lines. like is anyone seriously taking Jax here?

my picks:

Dallas -1.5
Saints -8
Skins pk
Browns -1
Bills -4.5
Vikings -3
Panthers +6.5
Steelers +4
Falcons -5.5
Giants -3
Dolphins +7
Packers -13 (in reality I never really gamble on such a big line, but I can see this game being total disaster for Denver)
Pats -6
Jets +3.5
Colts +10

IRL I am almost definitely taking that Steelers line, plus I think I'm gonna tease the Lions to +7.5 and the Saints to -2

also just teased 6.5 for Saints -1.5 and Tennessee +7.5, seems like a real solid bet

I actually would go with Denver +13. +13 is a loooot.

bets I've made so far are Lions +1 and Vikings -1.5

get your parlay card ready

Lions +1.5
Saints -8
Rams pk (surprised this is a pickem)
Browns -1
Bills -4.5
Vikings -3
Bears -6.5
Texans -4 (texans pendulum swings back to a win this week)
Falcons -5.5
Giants -3
Dolphins +7
Broncos +13
Raiders +6
Ravens -3.5
Colts +10

I went 12-4 in my pool this week and now I'm feeling stressed about next week...fuck...feel like Cincinnati's gonna upset the Bills but what a stupid pick that looks like...damn...pressure getting to me

Matt where'd you get Vikes -1.5?
As for the Pack/Broncos game, betting on lines that are like 12+ points is really difficult since a lot of these games can feature a team that's not really trying to score in the 4th quarter, I've been burned before w/ garbage time touchdowns and it really sucks. Obviously if New England's involved you don't really have to worry. But I don't see any advantage Denver has in this matchup, and the Pack's playing at home to boot, I can really see this game being like 14-0 after 8 minutes.

guys i'm going to gently suggest that you make a football gambling thread if you see this being a regular conversation?

yeah, the rest of us non-degenerates have no interest in it

no interest? don't you think debating whether the Packers will win by 14 or more is more interesting than "yes, I think Green Bay will win this one"? the truth about pick 'em polls is that it's very hard to outperform a guy who's always picking the team with the best record over a full season.

I actually don't understand what the gambling stuff means - point spread etc. I could Google it and learn obvs but the reason why I don't is that I also don't care
That said it doesn't bother me any if you talk about it

It's easy, taking Chicago -6.5 means you are betting that Chicago wins by 6.5 or more (their score minus 6.5), while Carolina +6.5 means you are taking their score plus that many points. So if you had Carolina and the score was Bears 27, Panthers 24, you'd still win

I only really bring it up because I think just picking the winner is useless as pretty much everyone's going to pick the Bears, or any other team that's favored by like 5 or more, so I predict everyone's going to have the same picks for like half these matches

well for one thing a lot of us participate in a yahoo pick'em group that uses confidence points so it's not just like things are endlessly tied. also if you actually read folk's picks closely it is interesting to see who has different ideas about some of the key games.

imo spreads aren't interesting because they say a lot less about football than they do about how ppl will spend their gambling money. but i know it's the kind of thing some ppl enjoy going on and on about which i why i was saying it's a perfectly valid thread topic.

your example is kind of weird too--granted the bears are at home but they kind of suck--carolina is a perfectly reasonable upset pick there.

I'm not sure on exact odds but I think 6.5 points is roughly 2:1 when it comes to pick'em, sure you might think Carolina can upset them (Fins could upset SD as well), but if I offer $10 for guessing the winner, is anyone actually picking Carolina there? I don't want to get into hardcore math or talk about standard deviations here, but the Vegas line is extremely unlikely to ever be "off" more than 2 or 3 points, so if all you care about is getting picks right, you'd have to be insane to pick Carolina. Just because they're associated with gambling doesn't mean this has to be gambling talk, IMO they say a lot more about football than a simple pick'em does

yeah but your premise is flawed because there's no money involved here--just the pride that comes from picking the games right! there's a nice little feeling from picking an upset that most folks missed.

I actually don't understand what the gambling stuff means - point spread etc. I could Google it and learn obvs but the reason why I don't is that I also don't care

^ this

i dont care about the weekly picks either, its just a way to jumpstart discussion for the week's games

I understand spreads but don't care about them.

I stopped doing picks because I am relentlessly bad at them.

everyone otm -- start a new thread

so two week 4 threads? that's stupid
for the record, I also think the Packers and Saints will win this week.

you could just make it an rolling gambling on nfl thread.

no, man -- just "football point spreads 2011" or some shit

if it's only like 2 or 3 ppl posting you guys won't need a new thread every week

we start new general threads every week bcuz every single one is like 900 posts

i mean i pretty much don't start reading these threads until the end of the week bcuz i don't care about ppl's picks but the thread is also updated infrequnetly enough that it's not a huge deal

yeah during the midweek this thread is more for breaking news and general nfl vibin

you could just make it an rolling gambling on nfl thread.

I don't really want to talk about gambling, I want to actually discuss who's favored and who's being under/overvalued. I'm not saying that everyone should be guessing on point spreads but I don't understand the uproar when a couple of us do it..?

yeah during the midweek this thread is more for breaking news and general nfl vibin

ummm discussing what the spreads are have to be included in this, don't they? or do we really not care that much about who is likely to win the games?

there was no uproar--it was a gentle suggestion.

to repeat, my sense is that a lot of ppl here are not interested in point spreads, as a vehicle for gambling or otherwise. i have no issue if a few folks do want to chat about those things, and i think a rolling point spread thread would probably foster that discussion and let yall get pretty deep into it.

the only spreads I want to talk about are the spread offense and sometimes cheese

http://www.footballtimes.org/AdvHTML_Upload/Spread60.gif

http://pinchmysalt.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/img_0844-version-2.jpg

that's cheese? looks like cinnamon malted babyshit to me

There is pumpkin in there too for some reason.

People are animals.

well brackett and bullit were essentially their only other talented defensive players so yeah

seriously how is there not a running SNL sketch of chucky quotes that sound really, really wrong

i realized that this game is just kind of a lose-lose for everyone -- the only thing more smh than curtis painter is the bucs allowing curtis painter to throw the longest td pass in colts history

fire the entire indy defense except freeney and mathis, i guess.

― horseshoe, Tuesday, October 4, 2011 1:53 AM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark

nah man Angerer rules

i think chucky/jaws put their mics on mute and are just swearing constantly at both teams

memo to the bucs: it appears as if you are losing the 2011 colts? plz remedy.

angerer might be decent but i'm not sold yet

my standards for linebacking are pretty low, as a Raiders fan...

stupid unnecessary roughness call

oh dear god that is horrible

i didn't see it

RIP career

that bad?

i was on the can, who got hurt

worst thing I've seen since Shaun Livingston's knee injury.

eric foster

eric foster shattered his lower leg

seymour really needed to throw up the X before that play

he fell back with his ankle cracked out to the side at a 45 degree angle

should i rewind my DVR y/n

yeah do it

weirdly euphemistic discussion of what injuries mean to football players

ugh i'm really glad i didn't see it

really torn up by foster's teammate crying

http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/FOSTER-ANKLE.gif

not watching that

of course, football is so violent it's only a matter of time until we see a guy break his neck on national television

well that's happened before so

more like before someone dies

yeah. it'll probably be something totally unexpected, like not a QB or skill player getting hit in the head or one of the defensive backs using his helmet as a weapon. or maybe it will be exactly what you'd think? i was about to write that i don't watch the game because of the violence but on the other hand, isn't washington that much better when receivers worry about landry if they run across the defense..

i don't like the fact that blount is so one-dimensional but it's a hell of a dimension

chris berman should be loaded into a trebuchet and launched into a wall made of swords

anything in particular or just the usual?

looooooooool @ bucs secondary

awesome blocking!

smgdh

yessir
so awesome the first time around i didn't even see wayne go by. nice

what a sexy play

ugh, this is so one of my pet peeves

when your BACK UP QUARTERBACK comes in, you're not running the wildcat. you've put in your back up quarterback, who is now going to run the ball.

bucs training facility is hilarious. i thought it couldn't get any cornier than that giant pirate ship but no..

yeah it wasn't a wildcat it was an option xp

Earlier I saw Blount trying to calm down an angry teammate and I was like "awwww"

no i know -- i was talking even before that, when tirico was like "josh johnson sometimes checks in to run the wildcat." no, he checks in to play... quarterback

xp to matt

Painter showed some huevos there.

this guy Curtis Painter

"i call him light switch, jaws"

he's been waiting 3.5 quarters to read this script

BLOUNT

oh, peyty :(

tampa has dropped... 3 INTs tonight? at least

holy hell, legarrette