rolling football gambling thread for degenerates and sickos

here u go

Hi

pitt +4 in houston, bet all ur us steel bonds

i love betting on 'american football' too bad i dont know anything about it

not knowing much about the sport you're betting on makes the wins that much sweeter.

Matt where'd you get Vikes -1.5?
― frogbs, Wednesday, September 28, 2011 1:09 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark

bodog

pitt +4 in houston, bet all ur us steel bonds

i'd be shocked if this line doesn't move

Btw I've found an excellent strategy is to do teasers and bet on everything with a spead of 1.5-2.5 and 7.5-8.5. If you have a 1.5-2.5 point dog, then if you tease 6 points, you get them losing by a touchdown. Likewise, if you have a 7.5-8.5 point favorite, you win even if they only win by a field goal. I'm not sure how much extra value this creates but it seems like it would have more value than randomly teasing games that with 4 or 5 point spreads. I'm sure I'm not the first guy to come up with it but I thought I'd pass it along.

the grantland vegas guy just posted abt that v thing today:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/5238/viva-las-vegas-making-sense-of-teaser-bets-in-week-4-of-the-nfl-season

lol umm did I get my post in before that article went live?

honestly I hadn't thought about doing a teaser past 10 and 14, that's some good advice

Bodog had Atlanta at -5.5 which I eagerly took them up on. This weekend is my first foray into sports betting so it will either be glorious or a nightmare.

I took arizona at +12.5 at USC today and got hooked up in the last 30 seconds or so. Good times.

college football is cruel as hell - if idve hit either my syracuse -2.5 or navy -2.5, both of which were looking p good, id have an extra $300 in my pocket

gamblers/degenerates/sickos are prob not happy abt that last sec score by the panthers

This Detroit miracle comeback is gonna make me a cool $20 lol

ended up winning 3/4 of my bets this weekend. going to chalk it up to beginners luck.

yeah I thought for sure my parlay was shot - it had Lions +7.5
lost the Steelers -4, but I still think that one had good value
also put a few bucks on Colts +10, was prepared to look like a total idiot but I had a hunch the Bucs probably aren't going to destroy anybody

Indianapolis -2.5 Kansas City
Minnesota -2.5 Arizona
Philadelphia -3 At Buffalo
At Houston -6 Oakland
New Orleans -6 At Carolina
At Jacksonville -2.5 Cincinnati
At Pittsburgh -7.5 Tennessee
At NY Giants -9.5 Seattle
At San Francisco -2.5 Tampa Bay
At New England -9.5 NY Jets
San Diego -4 At Denver
Green Bay -5.5 At Atlanta
Detroit -6.5 Chicago

Interesting that the Jets and Bears are such dogs. I would snap bet Chicago if they were +7. Lots of good stuff to tease this week, you can get KC +8.5 vs. Indy (can't see Indy scoring more than 17 or so, even vs. that defense), Arizona +8.5 vs. Minnesota, Cinci +8.5 vs. Jaxxx, and Pittsburgh -.5 vs. the Titans. Acutally the Steelers look the worst out of all those. But I'm definitely taking the KC/Cinci one.

The only bet I lost last week was Atlanta at Seattle at -5.5.. I guess I had no idea the 12th man was such a potent force.. Also won with Detroit, Ravens and Arizona at +12.5 at USC.. Not sure if Im gonna get in on anything this week because I'll be at my college reunion and wont have solid access to tvs anywhere..

lost the Steelers -4, but I still think that one had good value
― frogbs, Tuesday, October 4, 2011 2:17 PM (8 hours ago) Bookmark

dude, no. you gotta admit to yourself when you're way off on games or you'll never learn anything.

only line that interests me right now is Raiders +6. If it creeps up to +7 I'm taking it.

I've admitted mistakes plenty of times but why do you think it wasn't? iirc the line crept up to -3.5 or -3 before closing, the Steelers should have done well shutting down the run and I didn't think their secondary could contain Big Ben. What was your take on it?

The Steelers have looked godawful all year. People out-thought themselves that game bigtime. And then the actual result was a really dominating performance by the Texans.

steelers haven't stopped the run at all!

didn't stop rice, didn't stop joe addai with no quarterback

Also with a team like the Steelers, you should be skeptical of the line moving. How much of that move was really from sharps and not from Steeler nation?

"all year" - its only week 4. a lot of people have the Steelers to miss the playoffs but I kinda feel like they're going to have a strong second half. if they really are as bad as they've looked lately I have no idea why, unless they're just too old

steelers haven't stopped the run at all!

so far no, but I'd expect that to change as the season wears on. for example the Packers are nearly dead last in pass defense despite finishing in the top 5 last year.

theyll be better than this but it's no shocka that foster broke out in that game.

they are old, and now they're starting to get banged up.

I just don't see how you could watch that game and think "well, I still had the line right, this is just variance." The Steelers got absolutely dominated. The scoreline wasn't indicative of how it went because of dumb penalties by the Texans. The Texans pass rush dominated, the Steelers D-Line got punked on the run over and over etc.

I realize that they only looked good vs. the Seahawks but my reasoning was that they're playing well vs. the pass and have been great vs. the run in years past. To me it really seemed like the -4 line was indicitive of people's reluctance to bet the Steelers after one godawful game and one disappointing one, I think they're a good team that's not playing well at the moment but I would guess they'll still make the playoffs. Likewise I felt the Texans have been overrated though they are improved on defense. I don't blame people who thought there was good value in betting against Carolina even though Cam Newton clearly turned out better than anyone could have guessed. Point is even though I thought the Texans would be favored, 4 points seemed like the maximum they'd give 'em, while at the beginning of the year this would almost definitely have swung the other way.

I had detroit, buffalo and oakland in a teaser and they all covered straight up. Oh well.

I did well on a parlay of detroit -6 and green bay -7. I wish I had the balls to bet on teams who arent the OVERWHELMING FAVORITE but fuck it, it has results.

I got a teaser with Cinci, Buffalo, and the Chiefs (had to sweat that one), plus three more that mixed and matched those, so it was a great weekend. Also glad I stayed away from the Bears +5.5 (I guess some books had it at 6.5 - was hoping for 7)

Early lines for Week 6:

10/16 1:00 ET At Green Bay -15 St. Louis
10/16 1:00 ET At Pittsburgh -12 Jacksonville
10/16 1:00 ET Philadelphia -1 At Washington
10/16 1:00 ET At Detroit -5 San Francisco
10/16 1:00 ET At Atlanta -4 Carolina
10/16 1:00 ET At Cincinnati -7 Indianapolis
10/16 1:00 ET At NY Giants -3 Buffalo
10/16 4:05 ET At Baltimore -7.5 Houston
10/16 4:05 ET At Oakland -6 Cleveland
10/16 4:15 ET At New England -7 Dallas
10/16 4:15 ET New Orleans -4.5 At Tampa Bay
10/16 8:30 ET At Chicago -3 Minnesota
10/17 8:35 ET At NY Jets -7 Miami

At the moment I don't really see anything great there. Buffalo +3 looks good. New Orleans -4.5 vs. a team that got obliterated last week seems decent but it may be a trap. I'll probably take both regardless.

jacksonville +12.5 some places... i think i have to take that.

you can tease Jets and Ravens at -1.5 each, and yes I got that one from Grantland :)

i kinda like Texans +8. The Raiders are no joke, and their D-Line had the best game of the season against them. +8 seems like an overreaction to me.

Week 7 lines:

Chicago -1 Tampa Bay (At London)
At Carolina -2.5 Washington
San Diego -2 At NY Jets
At Cleveland -3 Seattle
At Tennessee -3 Houston
At Miami -1.5 Denver
At Detroit -3.5 Atlanta
At Oakland -4.5 Kansas City
Pittsburgh -3.5 At Arizona
At Dallas -12.5 St. Louis
Green Bay -9 At Minnesota
At New Orleans -14 Indianapolis
Baltimore -7.5 At Jacksonville

All the new QB lines seem interesting. Oakland is lucky to get KC on their first game w/ Palmer. Green Bay should crush Ponder, 9 seems too low. I'm thinking about teasing Baltimore to -1.5, then getting a "free" 6 points on every team. Baltimore -1.5 just seems like such a lock vs. Jacksonville.

christian ponder did me dirty and my greenbay -9

nearly bet that but it moved to -12 on my sportsbook. the Ravens line also moved three points. really wish I did what I said I would but I took Atlanta and Pittsburgh so at least I won money. lol @ me for almost betting huge on the Texans then realizing, "wait, I think the Titans are legitimately underrated"

betting on the texans after a horrible loss is a winning strategy imo.

i can't wait to bet on the raiders vs. st. tebow in week 9.

had green bay and baltimore this weekend u_u

oh man

I broke even. Put too much on the Lions but the Texans and Jets got made up for it.

I thought about betting on GB but then I started thinking that maybe the team would be inspired by the McNabb benching.

I'm thinking about teasing Baltimore to -1.5, then getting a "free" 6 points on every team. Baltimore -1.5 just seems like such a lock vs. Jacksonville.

whewwwwwww thank god I did not do this

betting on the texans after a horrible loss is a winning strategy imo.

hadn't even really considered that lol

Stanford is -8 against USC this week. Is that a stone cold lock of the week or foolishness?

this must be a really good week for Vegas as both the Packers and Ravens line moved three points and neither wound up covering the original spread.

Week 8 lines: (with the O/U)

At Tennessee -9.5 Indianapolis 43.5
At Houston -9.5 Jacksonville 40.5
At Carolina -3.5 Minnesota 47.5
New Orleans -14 At St. Louis 48
At Baltimore -13 Arizona 44
At NY Giants -10 Miami 43
At Buffalo (Toronto) -6 Washington 46
Detroit -3.5 At Denver 44
New England -3 At Pittsburgh 50.5
At San Francisco -9.5 Cleveland 38.5
Cincinnati -3 At Seattle 38
At Philadelphia -3.5 Dallas 51
San Diego -3.5 At Kansas City 44

New Orleans by 14 points, seems enticing. The Rams are averaging 8 points a game. Similarly, under 48 total points could be interesting, as we know that the Rams will probably not score more than 14.

No idea at the moment how to bet any of these - New England by 3 over Pittsburgh seems good, and maybe there's something on the Lions/Broncos line, though honestly I have no clue how that one's going to play out.

if stafford is playing I'm betting the Lions. Tebow takes too many sacks already and he's facing the nastiest D-Line in the league.

well I definitely wouldn't take the Broncos. but Staff's been bad the last two games and he may be hurt. if its announced that he's playing for sure I would expect the line to move a point or two.

Week 9:

Atlanta -7 At Indianapolis
At New Orleans -7.5 Tampa Bay
At Houston -10.5 Cleveland
At Buffalo -1.5 NY Jets
At Kansas City -5.5 Miami
San Francisco -3.5 At Washington
At Dallas -12.5 Seattle
At Oakland -8 Denver
At Tennessee -3 Cincinnati
At Arizona -4.5 St. Louis
At New England -8 NY Giants
Green Bay -5.5 At San Diego
At Pittsburgh -3.5 Baltimore

At Philadelphia -6.5 Chicago

Lots of home favorites this week. Cinci +3 seems like a good bet as I doubt the Titan's ability to challenge a winning team and the Bengals seem to be getting better with time. I can see the Oakland/Denver line fluctuating wildly. I really want to bet against Tebow at every opportunity though in this case it means betting on Carson Palmer. I'd also look for the GB/SD line to move following tonight's game.

I bet lions -3 and the under of 43 which led me to breaking even.. was pretty sure the broncos would score next to nothing but didnt anticipate the lions scoring like 42 or whatever they ended up with..

There actually might be value with Oakland -8 just because Tebow is so historically bad. I was hoping for a better line because everyone seems to be overreacting to that ridiculous situation they put Carson Palmer in a week ago. I doubt Palmer will ever be great again, but I'd be shocked if he's worse than mediocre.

didn't see anything worth betting :(

ok I'll do a dumb parlay just so I'm not bored

i decided to do something (probably) very stupid by teasing Falcons -1.5 (vs. the Colts) and getting all these lines with it:

Bucs +15
Browns +17
Jets +8.5
Raiders -1.5
Bengals +8
Packers -.5
Ravens +9.5
Giants +15
49ers PK
Rams +9
Bears +14

I realize I'd have lost my ass had I tried this with the Jags/Ravens two weeks ago (which I nearly did), but I don't see how the Colts wind up pulling this one out. Not sure if I should just be middling everything, seems to be less variance that way but I think the EV is roughly the same

Seahawks +17.5 too, oh boy oh boy oh boy

Week 10

At San Diego -6.5 Oakland
Pittsburgh -3 At Cincinnati
At Kansas City -3 Denver
Jacksonville -3 At Indianapolis
At Dallas -6 Buffalo
Houston -3 At Tampa Bay
At Carolina -3 Tennessee
At Miami -4 Washington
New Orleans -1.5 At Atlanta
At Chicago -1 Detroit
At Cleveland -2.5 St. Louis
At Philadelphia Off Arizona
Baltimore -7 At Seattle
At San Francisco -3.5 NY Giants
At NY Jets -1 New England

At Green Bay -13.5 Minnesota

Lots of weird favs - NYJ and Bears are favorites over NE and Detroit, plus Miami a favorite over Washington.

KC/Denver could be an interesting game to bet on but I have no idea how

Thinking about doing another megateaser on Baltimore -7 vs. Seattle. I know they lost vs. Jax but Ravens -1 seems like it would hit like 85-90% of the time, right?

Chiefs and Chargers look good.

6.5 point tease of Balt +.5 and Lions +7.5 seems very good

I will also take the Chargers - I'm actually coming around on Palmer a little, but its not like the Raiders are super stacked without him!

ok so all three of those teams lost outright, gotta say i lost my a$$ this week

on to Week 11:

NY Jets -6 At Denver
At Atlanta -6 Tennessee
At Miami -2 Buffalo
At Baltimore -7 Cincinnati
At Cleveland PK Jacksonville
Oakland -1 At Minnesota
At Detroit -7 Carolina
At Green Bay -14 Tampa Bay
Dallas -7.5 At Washington
At San Francisco -9.5 Arizona
At St. Louis -2 Seattle
At Chicago -3.5 San Diego
At NY Giants -4.5 Philadelphia
At New England -15 Kansas City

Would definitely take Dallas at -6.5, but they seem like another good teaser team
Philly +4.5 seems like a good bet. I'm not sold on NYG and Philly seems more than capable of beating them if they can curb the stupidity for one game

also it's interesting to note that Miami is a favorite over Buffalo - how quickly things change. Buffalo +2 all the way

also, whoaaaa @ Oakland -1 @ Minnesota, that sounds too good to be true

My weekend picks: bengals +7, raiders -1, cowboys -8

cincy covers in the BELK BOWL in epic fashion

http://lastwordonsports.com/2014/11/07/gambling-web-site-says-jameis-winston-point-shaving/