Ichiro/Sisler Watch!

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He certainly will be top 10; if he breaks Sisler I expect he'll be second, perhaps. Writers understand [sic] hits.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 8 September 2004 20:40 (twenty years ago) link

B..b...but he didn't deserve to win in 2001, either! Top five, OK, but MVP? Giambi wuz robbed.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 8 September 2004 21:18 (twenty years ago) link

don't know if it's been pointed out but there's a since-mostly derailed sister thread here Ichiro Suzuki for any of you cats who don't ever venture over to the all-inclusive other

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 9 September 2004 00:25 (twenty years ago) link

Learned on today's SABR e-list: Ichiro is poised to shatter Lloyd Waner's 1927 mark of 198 SINGLES in a season. And in a debate over whether Ich *tries* to hit singles rather than XBH, listee John Pastier says:

"Ichi's 3.13 GB/FB ratio is second in the majors.  Anyone bent on driving the ball into the ground knows that he won't be getting many doubles, and will get no triples or HRs that way...."

ie, It's an amazing skill... the question is if he'd help the team more than if he sacrificed the few-walks, 84% singles approach for a potentially higher OBP *and* SLG.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 9 September 2004 17:55 (twenty years ago) link

XBH's give a team a better chance to have big innings. It also takes fewer batters to "manufacture" runs. That is, a team with all singles hitters will need to get three hits to produce one run, whereas a team with singles and power hitters can score more runs with fewer hits.

That's a problem with Seattle's offense this season -- their best hitter is a singles hitter, so he needs a lot of help to drive in or score runs. Ichiro's SLG isn't so bad ~.480, but that's a bit misleading since most of hit hits are singles. His isolated power is ~.110, which is actually quite awful.

So yeah, a team with a below average offense like Seattle would probably be better off if he were hitting .330/.420/.520 with ~50-60 XBH than the .370/.420/.480 or whatever he's hitting now.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 9 September 2004 20:24 (twenty years ago) link

i'd imagine all teams would be better off with those first numbers. ichiro's higher batting avg is negligible since so many hits are infield singles.

doc, why would you think ichiro would be capable of batting even .275 if he started sitting back and trying to drive the ball? his entire strategy is to rely on his speed and ability to make contact, slap the ball to deep second or deep short and either beat the throw or hope it squeezes through. it might be an interesting experiment if it hadn't already been done - that schwarz article said molitor tried to get him to do just that at the beginning of the season, and it was a disaster.

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 9 September 2004 20:39 (twenty years ago) link

i'd imagine all teams would be better off with those first numbers
Yeah, maybe I should have exagerrated the differences more -- say .290/.380/.520 (OPS is the same, but sacrifice hits for power and walks).

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 9 September 2004 21:40 (twenty years ago) link

But the numbers in my last post look nothing like Ichiro numbers, so we'd be talking about swapping him with a completely different RF with those sorts of numbers (and decent speed) and asking, "would Seattle be better off with this other guy"?

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 9 September 2004 21:42 (twenty years ago) link

Although the whole point is kind of moot because you normally wouldn't care about what sorts of hitters you would need to maximize the potential of such a shitty offense on a losing team.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 9 September 2004 21:43 (twenty years ago) link

His isolated power is ~.110, which is actually quite awful.

David Eckstein and Juan Pierre, 2 players that are fairly similar offensively to Ichiro, have much worse ISOPWR: .054 and .087

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 10 September 2004 04:19 (twenty years ago) link

Well, Juan Pierre is even more overrated than Ichi.

I'm speculating on the consequences of Ichiro trying to drive the ball *some* of the time, as opposed to slapping it almost *all* the time. His ceiling in MLB seems to be 50 XBH a year.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 10 September 2004 12:42 (twenty years ago) link

why are we faulting a player for playing to his strengths? it's not like ichiro is the rob deer of the single; his playing does not bring his team down. in addition, he's the leadoff man, whose primary job is to get on base, which ichiro does very, very well. yes he could be more patient, but how can you argue with his batting average and obp? certainly ichiro gets more attention cuz he's foreign and cuz no one else in the majors right now plays like him (aside, perhaps, xxxstein and pierre, both far inferior players), but ichiro is a helluva player.

i would be curious to see how well ichiro would adjust if he were moved down in the order to the second or third spot. in those cases, with other, slower players on base, the deep grounder that ichiro can beat out becomes a liability, not an asset. judging by ichiro's phenomenal bat control, i would be willing to bet that he would become much more of a line drive hitter...

Yanc3y (ystrickler), Friday, 10 September 2004 13:27 (twenty years ago) link

Wade Boggs to thread...?

David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 10 September 2004 13:59 (twenty years ago) link

yall are forgetting his arm

cinniblount (James Blount), Friday, 10 September 2004 14:17 (twenty years ago) link

But he's not always great at getting on base. He's second in OBP this year, but last year he was 30th, 10th in 2002, and 14th in 2001 (his MVP season). Nobody's saying that he brings the team down, but one of the top 10 players in the league? Arguable.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Friday, 10 September 2004 15:23 (twenty years ago) link

Wade Boggs hit doubles by the truck load at the peak of his hitting prowess.

Ichiro I think is pretty similar to Tony Gwynn or perhaps even Rod Carew, who also was good at getting infield hits (especially by bunting).

Earl Nash (earlnash), Friday, 10 September 2004 15:42 (twenty years ago) link

I'd love to see Ichiro play pepper with the Green Monster for 81 games - that'd definitely (probably?) sex up his SLG.

David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 10 September 2004 15:51 (twenty years ago) link

God, my work computer SUCKS BALLZ & STRIKES.

David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 10 September 2004 16:17 (twenty years ago) link

Basically it shows that Ichiro has hit the monster 1x in the past 6 seasons. He has hit the ball more than 200 feet to left field 3 times in 6 seasons.

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 10 September 2004 16:22 (twenty years ago) link

Ichiro needs 26 hits to tie Sisler's seasonal record over the next 23 games. Let's say that he gets 4.4 ABs/game (seasonal average):

23 games * 4.4 ABs/game = 102 ABs

26/102 = .254 to tie the record, .265 to break it.

he's 0/8 for the weekend so far (you can't ignore his career numbers which long suggested that he was overdue for a fall back to reality). his 3 year splits show that September is by far his worst hitting month (.283, one of only 2 months that he averages less than .300). this really could go down to the wire. could you imagine if he got intentionally walked if it got close?

Here is SI's Ichiro countdown page, which is pretty cool.

gygax! (gygax!), Sunday, 12 September 2004 05:08 (twenty years ago) link

In this article, the author says of the other Seattle hitters:

"Their bats are probably not much different than the one George Sisler swung back in 1920, when he banged out a major-league-record 257 hits."

Except for, like, their center of gravity and the thickness of their handles and their weight, sure.

You've Got to Pick Up Every Stitch (tracerhand), Tuesday, 14 September 2004 03:38 (twenty years ago) link

higher grade pinetar nowadays too

cinniblount (James Blount), Tuesday, 14 September 2004 12:46 (twenty years ago) link

Don't forget the cork!

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 14 September 2004 14:39 (twenty years ago) link

On Topic: last night Ichiro got his third 0-4 in 4 days.

He's batting .200 in the past 7 days.

With a projected 84 at bats remaining in the season, he needs 25 hits to tie the record (.300), 26 to break it (.310).

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 14 September 2004 15:08 (twenty years ago) link

Another oh-fer last night. Perhaps he has something blocking his windpipe?

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 17 September 2004 12:40 (twenty years ago) link

he did get three walks though. two intentional.


maybe i should be posting this in the barry vs. ichiro thread...

the leglo (the leglo), Friday, 17 September 2004 12:43 (twenty years ago) link

Damn it. I want Ichiro to break this record, or at least get really, really close, so I can read old people getting pissed off. (This is the BEST EXAMPLE EVER.) "Dammit, I didn't watch my friends die in th' mud at Okinawa just so one-a them dadgurned Japaneseys could break Sisler's rekkid!"

alfalfa romeo (natepatrin), Friday, 17 September 2004 16:39 (twenty years ago) link

(PS: hitters of the '20s were so prolific because the spitball had just been banned and pitchers were leery after the Ray Chapman beanball death incident and umpires ruled that old mushy deadened balls couldn't remain in play as often, so ta-da, offensive explosion. stick it, old-timers)

alfalfa romeo (natepatrin), Friday, 17 September 2004 16:42 (twenty years ago) link

He's not gonna break the record.

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 17 September 2004 17:50 (twenty years ago) link

He's certainly not gonna break it in 154 games. ASTERISK!!!

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 17 September 2004 18:11 (twenty years ago) link

Exactly.

gygax! (gygax!), Friday, 17 September 2004 18:16 (twenty years ago) link

Nate, you still have to give credit to Sisler. Everyone in the league benefitted from the things you mentioned, but he was the only one who got that many hits.

oops (Oops), Friday, 17 September 2004 18:18 (twenty years ago) link

Nate, that rant you linked to was awesome. Delusion at its finest.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Friday, 17 September 2004 18:56 (twenty years ago) link

I should really use the pejorative "scums" more often.

alfalfa romeo (natepatrin), Friday, 17 September 2004 19:00 (twenty years ago) link

Ichiro is 5 for 5 tonight. 243 hits with 11 games left after tonight, needing 15 hits.

Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 03:40 (twenty years ago) link

Ichiro broke the MLB record for singles in a a season (with an asterisk) yesterday:

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 17:19 (twenty years ago) link

If there's 12 games left, why the asterisk?

oops (Oops), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 21:20 (twenty years ago) link

wait when did the switch to 154 games?

oops (Oops), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 21:21 (twenty years ago) link

In 1898, when Wee Willie Keeler established the record for singles in a season, his Brooklyn Bridegrooms played 149 games. Other teams in the league played anywhere from 145-152 games that year.

jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 21:50 (twenty years ago) link

Oops, I meant that Keeler played for the Baltimore Orioles. Still 149 games, though.

jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 21:51 (twenty years ago) link

Based on some very cursory research, it looks like the 154-game season was established in 1904.

jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 21:55 (twenty years ago) link

Although this site claims it was 1892, so I dunno. I'm guessing that maybe it was officially a 154-game season, but the actual likelihood of each team playing all 154 games was slim, as rain-outs probably weren't made up as frequently as they are now. (The Cubs' games from Sunday-Tuesday of this week were each in a different city!)

jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:00 (twenty years ago) link

so how many anti-ichiro screeds has BP put up so far? or is he still not getting enough attention/praise to make the effort worthwhile?

John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:15 (twenty years ago) link

Baseball Prospectus is like the No Depression of MLB mags

Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:36 (twenty years ago) link

it's more like the OMNI of MLB mags.

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:45 (twenty years ago) link

more like the ILM of music mags (if ILM was a mag)

MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:47 (twenty years ago) link

nah, it's not that bad.

gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 22:49 (twenty years ago) link

ack, I meant to write "the ILM of MLB mags", but I guess the point was made.

MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 22 September 2004 23:09 (twenty years ago) link

Ichiro has 3 more hits tonight, giving him 246 on the year, 11 hits to tie with 10 games left. Y'all do the math

oh and to paraphrase gygax up yonder, Raul Ibanez is 6 for 6, wtf

Gear! (Gear!), Thursday, 23 September 2004 04:01 (twenty years ago) link


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