2004 Trade Rumours Thread

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ie the where is carlos headed thread

this (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylc=X3oDMTBpMGlxY3AxBF9TAzk1ODYxNzc3BHNlYwNvZQ--?slug=insidedishmarlinscouldsw&prov=tsn&type=lgns) has some people talking. but it doesn't make much sense: why would the marlins give up "elite player"-value prospects for a reliever - and for all we know not even a good one at that? perhaps the yankees are to ship out a prospect or two as well. and is there or is there not a limit as to how much money can be included in trade?

John (jdahlem), Monday, 7 June 2004 05:18 (twenty years ago) link

eek, i used the british spelling in the title. not very appropriate here is it? i'm such an anglophile.

John (jdahlem), Monday, 7 June 2004 05:20 (twenty years ago) link

So who wins the Carlos Beltran Sweepstakes?

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 7 June 2004 06:11 (twenty years ago) link

Do the Marlins NEED a reliever?

Seriously - I have no idea how bad their BP is (outside of Armando, who has been anything BUT bad).

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 7 June 2004 12:56 (twenty years ago) link

Supposedly the Marlins are interested in trading for Contreras from the Yanks, but I would imagine that The Boss would have to eat much of that salary.

earlnash, Monday, 7 June 2004 14:16 (twenty years ago) link

I don't think "lopsided" even begins to describe this rumor...

----
Trade talks with Mets

The Astros are in discussions with the Mets about a trade that would send right fielder Richard Hidalgo, who lost his starting spot in May, to New York for reliever David Weathers, industry sources say.

Weathers, 34, has a 5-3 record with a 4.28 ERA.

Weathers, a 14-year veteran, is earning $3,93 million this season. Hidalgo, who has been on the trading block for two years, is earning $12 million this year.

Hidalgo, 28, would be owed a $2 million buyout if his $15 million option is not picked up for next season.

Weathers has given up 41 hits and 19 runs over 34 innings in 32 games.

Hidalgo has slumped to a .256 average with four home runs and 30 RBIs.

mattbot (mattbot), Thursday, 17 June 2004 12:44 (twenty years ago) link


Gammons said on BBTN that Houston would pay almost all he's owed this year. In that case, why shouldn't the Mets roll the dice -- but what's Hidalgo's problem anyway?

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 17 June 2004 12:52 (twenty years ago) link

I meant lopsided in that the Astros would get only Weathers (is bullpen help what they really need?) and still probably have to pay two salaries.

I've heard they're shopping Hidalgo because he doesn't get along with Jimy. Certainly it's not because Orlando Palmeiro gives them more in RF.

mattbot (mattbot), Thursday, 17 June 2004 12:57 (twenty years ago) link

Richard and Jimy get along fine as long as Doggie is hitting. Doggie doesn't think he should sit any after hitting .202 for the month of May and .185 to start June.

Palmiero wouldn't be Hidalgo's replacement, anyway. Jason Lane would get the majority of the playing time there. Lane has been hitting well the last week or so, but really hadn't gotten any consistent ABs before that. Hidalgo didn't really lose his starting spot until he strained his neck making a game-saving catch in Milwaukee this past weekend. Officially, he's been sitting because of the injury.

The Astros inability to hit with runners on base has gone from frustrating to surreal to comical.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 13:40 (twenty years ago) link

NO WAY a player is having problems with Jimy Williams? What's next - Lou Pinella throwing a base / chair / player?

Also - if the Astros really think David Weathers will "help" the bullpen, I'm not sure that Hidalgo's the one that should be leaving Houston.

I guess Hidalgo's lackluster start (similar to what he offered 2 years ago) lead RH into Jimy's doghouse. If this trade happens, I really hope Jimy gives Jason Lane the full time job & leaves Orlando Palmeiro ON THE BENCH.

Boldbury you x-posting phreak.

David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 17 June 2004 13:42 (twenty years ago) link

And as far as Weather's is concerned, on the Astros weaknesses this year has been middle relief. Lidge/Dotel have had some glorious failures, but overall they've been solid. Ricky Stone, however, has been consistently awful at bridging the gap to the Lidge/Dotel/Miceli whenever the starters have faltered. While Weathers certainly won't be the savior for this team, he could be stabilizer in the bullpen and that can go a long way.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 13:48 (twenty years ago) link

Apparently, Hidalgo for Weathers has happened, but I can't find a link.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 14:59 (twenty years ago) link

So that gives the Mets, what, 15 OFs?

David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 17 June 2004 15:10 (twenty years ago) link

they will be dealing cameron i bet.

gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 17 June 2004 15:19 (twenty years ago) link

I think there'd be an open revolt by the pitching staff -- as tepid as Cameron's bat has been, the Mets are giving up a lot less XBH this year (whether mitigated by non-Mike factors is arguable). Plus if Hidalgo is an attempt to steal a weak (?) division now with vets, they wouldn't be in "seller" mode with Cameron.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 17 June 2004 15:29 (twenty years ago) link

New Mets starting OF: Hidalgo, Ice Williams, Joe McEwing

David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 17 June 2004 16:50 (twenty years ago) link

On any ball that Cameron doesn't run down, Hidalgo could throw out the runner trying to get to second!

I guess I understand the Astros need for middle relief, but Weathers has been just short of awful this year, hasn't he? I know Howe has used him pretty often. Pardon the NBA draft term, but Hidalgo still strikes me as a player with a fair amount of upside. PECOTA seems to agree, 13% breakout, 48% improve, 16.1% collapse (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/hidalri01.php#forecast).

I dunno, the whole thing smells a little bit to me like the Yankees dumping of Mondesi to the D-backs last year.

mattbot (mattbot), Thursday, 17 June 2004 17:12 (twenty years ago) link

Doggie had been on the trading block in the off-season, but his salary made him hard to move and his performance last year drove his value (to the Astros) up a bit. So, I thinks it's more than a Mondesi Malcontent Move. It's a complete non-performing, over-paid malcontent dump. Yeah, the Astros are still giving Mets $4mil, but the Mets will be on the hook for the $2mil option, or his $15mil salary for next year, if they choose to keep him.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 17:24 (twenty years ago) link

I'd be stunned if the Mets kept Hidalgo at that price w/ Beltran on the market.

David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 17 June 2004 17:36 (twenty years ago) link

"Hidalgo still strikes me as a player with a fair amount of upside. PECOTA seems to agree, 13% breakout, 48% improve, 16.1% collapse."
actually though that means he's got a fairER degree of DOWNSIDE, although a total collapse like he's experienced seems unlikely to sustain itself for long. he's just a weird hitter, i mean look at his history. a worthy gamble, i say.

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:07 (twenty years ago) link

looking at his peripherals over at espn.com though, he's down across the board. highest AB/HR ever, lowest iso power ever, lowest bb/pa since '98, lowest bb/k since his 67 ABs in 97. so he's not only not hitting for average, he's hitting for less power, being less patient, and striking out more than ever before. a fair-sized gamble, then.

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:11 (twenty years ago) link

oh, he's also grounding into double plays at his highest rate ever. which is probably just bad luck, but it's kind of funny. he really is playing like shit this year.

John (jdahlem), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:15 (twenty years ago) link

how's his defense? seemed like he was in the nightly highlight reels in 2002, i think he led the league in OA as well.

gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:33 (twenty years ago) link

Best Defensive RF in NL.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:33 (twenty years ago) link

although jose cruz jr. got the gold glove last year... oh the irony.

gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:34 (twenty years ago) link

Mets could've used a strong defensive RF last night.

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:36 (twenty years ago) link

Doggie wuz robbed.

boldbury (boldbury), Thursday, 17 June 2004 18:40 (twenty years ago) link

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/baseball/mlb/oakland_athletics/8943947.htm?1c

• Kansas City Royals General Manager Allard Baird and former Royals scouting director Art Stewart are in Sacramento this week to watch the Triple-A Rivercats, fueling speculation the A's might be in the Carlos Beltran trading sweepstakes.

The Royals almost certainly will deal the center fielder, who will be a free agent after this season, before the July 31 trade deadline and A's G.M. Billy Beane and Baird are established trading partners.

Two A's officials on Wednesday said no deal is imminent but acknowledged the teams keep in semi-regular contact.

Baird said recently that he is seeking a young third baseman and a catcher for Beltran, and the A's are deep in both positions. Third baseman Mark Teahen (recently promoted to Sacramento after batting .335 with six homers and 36 RBIs at Double-A Midland) is one of the A's top prospects and catchers John Baker and Casey Myers are promising hitters.


the royals also had a scout at a AA game, with the yankees top 2B prospect (presumably) being showcased at third. but it looks like we've got a clear-cut favorite at the moment.

John (jdahlem), Friday, 18 June 2004 03:04 (twenty years ago) link

Jon Heyman, Newsday:

"[Mets' GM Jim] Duquette was dialing up Seattle GM Bill Bavasi yesterday for news on Freddy Garcia, a No. 2 starter. Duquette was told Garcia isn't going anywhere for a week. But he'll be ready come next Thursday to try to beat five other teams: the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox and Angels."

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 18 June 2004 12:41 (twenty years ago) link

teahen? so another moneyball kid w/ a potential impact on this season.

yes, i finally staretd reading moneyball.

j.q. higgins, Friday, 18 June 2004 13:08 (twenty years ago) link

expanding on what i said above:

SWITCHEROO: Seattle scouts have been following the Yankees' Double-A team in Trenton recently and may have asked the Yankees to move prospect Robinson Cano from second base to third to see how he'd handle the position with an eye toward a potential trade. The Yankees are interested in Seattle righthander Freddy Garcia, who is 3-6 with a 3.23 ERA this season.

Asked if Cano had been switched for a showcase, a Yankee official would not be specific but said, "Somebody wanted to see him play third, yes. You can read into that."

The Royals also have had scouts watching Trenton and they have professed a desire to get a third baseman in return for center fielder Carlos Beltran. The Royals also reportedly want a catcher, and the Yanks' top prospect, Dioner Navarro, is the catcher at Trenton.

Cano, a 21-year-old who is batting .297 with six homers and 38RBI at Trenton, played third earlier this week, the first time he's played there as a professional.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/story/204073p-176130c.html

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 19 June 2004 02:52 (twenty years ago) link

oh and gabe white was dumped on the reds in a reversal of last year's white for manning trade. i would've rather gotten rid of heredia.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 19 June 2004 03:00 (twenty years ago) link

enlightening and for the most part spot on article over at "think factory":
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/main/article/markusen061804

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 19 June 2004 03:21 (twenty years ago) link

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2004/06/19/are_red_sox_poised_to_make_beltran_bid/

the yankees could easily beat any sox offer, but they want to overpay for garcia instead...although we'll probably get a story after the trade is completed that the yankees had an offer on the table worth twice as much that baird rejected, or that baird asked for them to break the farm for him. it'd fit with every major bosox trade the past 2-3 years.

but i'm hoping beane will step in here.

John (jdahlem), Sunday, 20 June 2004 13:40 (twenty years ago) link

It must suck being the Evil Empire.

miloauckerman (miloauckerman), Sunday, 20 June 2004 16:39 (twenty years ago) link

I never thought for a second that the Astros might be in the running for Beltran, so this is particularly surprising (the link requires registration, so I have not actually read the article from its source, but copied it from another message board):

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune...l=cs-columnists

Center of attention: Beltran to Astros?

Keep an eye on the Houston Astros in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes.

With Roger Clemens turning in a vintage performance at 41, the Astros know they must do everything possible to make the playoffs. General manager Gerry Hunsicker isn't inclined to place the blame for the 1-6 stretch against Milwaukee and the Cubs on manager Jimy Williams, and the only other way to jump-start the fifth-place team is to make a major transaction.

Given the troubles that Craig Biggio has had playing center field, especially in the quirky pastures of Minute Maid Park, a five-tool player like Beltran makes all the sense in the world.

Poor fielding, especially the limited range that the Astros have at virtually every position except shortstop, is the most telling flaw of a team where the sum doesn't seem to equal the parts. Beltran not only would be a godsend for Houston pitchers, but his acquisition would send a huge statement in the National League Central.

The trade of Richard Hidalgo to the New York Mets opened right field for 27-year-old Jason Lane, a prodigious run producer in the minor leagues. But with Beltran aboard, Lane could share time in left with Biggio, with Lance Berkman moving to right.

Biggio, who is waiting to see if the Astros pick up his option for 2005, also could give second baseman Jeff Kent and maybe even first baseman Jeff Bagwell some needed rest. But owner Drayton McLane will be careful in his handling of Biggio, who entered the weekend hitting .302 with eight homers and 28 runs batted in.

With two catching prospects in John Buck and Hector Gimenez and infield prospects in Chris Burke and Tommy Whiteman, the Astros are among the teams that can meet Kansas City GM Allard Baird's asking price, which is a catcher and a third baseman.

According to sources, the only talks between the Astros and Royals have been about reliever Jason Grimsley. But Beltran is very much on the minds of the Houston front office.

This is the time to make a grab for Beltran, not July 31. A team like Houston could have him for six weeks, then put him on the market again before the trade deadline if he hasn't brought a large return.

boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 21 June 2004 14:53 (twenty years ago) link

Poor fielding, especially the limited range that the Astros have at virtually every position except shortstop, is the most telling flaw of a team where the sum doesn't seem to equal the parts.

uh... who did they just trade?

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 21 June 2004 15:14 (twenty years ago) link

Zing!

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 21 June 2004 15:15 (twenty years ago) link

And, really, the last thing the Astros should probably do is dump their farm system to "make a run". At least the Hidalgo-for-right-handed-scrapple trade made some sense in a financial way. But, hey, it's not like the Astros really NEED a catcher any time soon with Brad "Dead Sexy Sombrero" Ausmus squatting behind the plate. And this assertion:

This is the time to make a grab for Beltran, not July 31. A team like Houston could have him for six weeks, then put him on the market again before the trade deadline if he hasn't brought a large return.

Whahey?

Gerry Hunsicker should be very inclined to blame Jimy Williams for the team's woes.

Boldbury (or whoever knows their stuff re: the Astros) - was Berkman really THAT bad out there in CF?

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 21 June 2004 15:21 (twenty years ago) link

was Berkman really THAT bad out there in CF?

The answer to that question is a resounding NO. He's the only Astro centerfielder to ever go up on the hill to make a catch. Even after seeing him out there for a year, media folks and Astro fans alike fall prey to the misconception that he's a big galoot just because of his body type. Granted he's probably lost a step since that year, but the guy is just a terrific athlete.

boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 21 June 2004 15:40 (twenty years ago) link

So, essentially, they moved a perfectly servicable CF over to accomodate an over-the-hill lifetime Astro they couldn't FATHOM letting walk, but they now want to move out of CF due to "defensive liabilities" so he can cut into the playing time of a youngish OF that could very likely outproduce the elder statesman by a wide margin. Brilliant.

I retract my previous statement re: inclination - Gerry Hunsicker should be very inclined to blame his own damn self for the Astros' woes.

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 21 June 2004 16:20 (twenty years ago) link

I don't know if there's that much difference between Biggio and Berkman in center. My analysis is based on the expectation that Berkman should be a terrible CF because he's a big, burly guy and the perception that he wasn't good because he didn't look like he ran fast while he was out there. He's not Willie Mays out there, but he's no Steve Balboni either. I think Berkman is just as capable as Biggio, but Berkman did complain that all the running in center took a lot out of him and he did struggle down the stretch that year.

Personally, when the Kent deal came through, my initial thought was that Bidge would move to LF, but I think it's a wash either way.

boldbury (boldbury), Monday, 21 June 2004 16:56 (twenty years ago) link

woo! o's just acquired jason grimsley. you guys are dead in the water!

j.q. higgins, Tuesday, 22 June 2004 14:19 (twenty years ago) link

"You guys" = the Orioles, right?

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 14:33 (twenty years ago) link

no...no...

uh, yes.

j.q. higgins, Tuesday, 22 June 2004 15:42 (twenty years ago) link

Out of all the things the Orioles are lacking, they go for a middle relief guy? & didn't they give up a nice chit in renting Brother Grimsley?

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 22 June 2004 16:50 (twenty years ago) link

i think so. hard to say how good denny bautista will be, but i don't get it.

the new gms are supposed to be pitching guys and they gave up ligtenberg for dejean, reacquired fat sidney when they could have gotten kenny rogers for cheap (er) or any other number of reclamation projects that have gone well this year.

not to mention the signings of omar daal and helling last year which i'm still angry about.

j.q. higgins, Tuesday, 22 June 2004 17:02 (twenty years ago) link

Now the rumor is Astros send Dotel to the A's, A's send prospects to the Royals, Royals send Beltran to Astros.

I'd take that.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/2643540

Astros pursuing Royals' Beltran
By BRIAN McTAGGART
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle
RESOURCES

The Astros are one of a handful of teams in the running to obtain Kansas City Royals center fielder Carlos Beltran through a three-team trade, sources have said.


According to sources, the Astros have explored the possibility of acquiring Beltran from the Royals and shipping closer Octavio Dotel to the Oakland A's, who would send prospects to Kansas City.


Beltran, 27, is a switch hitter who is batting .280 with 14 home runs and 50 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. He hit .307 last year with 26 home runs and 100 RBIs and was the AL Rookie of the Year in 1999.


"I'm not going to comment on specific trade discussions," Astros general manager Gerry Hunsicker said. "There are a lot of conversations going on these days."


The Royals are in last place in the American League Central at 27-40 and are prepared clean house. They sent reliever Jason Grimsley to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Denny Bautista on Monday.


Oakland general manager Billy Beane has expressed interest in bolstering his bullpen before the July 31 trading deadline. The A's have a bevy of top prospects in the minor leagues.

boldbury (boldbury), Wednesday, 23 June 2004 17:09 (twenty years ago) link

I'm no expert on their ceilings, but I don't like losing Kazmir. Wow, never expected them to get 2 rotation guys.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1849462

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 30 July 2004 21:46 (twenty years ago) link

actually, i'm wondering how much rick peterson has to do with those trades. if he was behind them, mets fans should be pretty comfortable. can't wait to hear what morbs thinks.

John (jdahlem), Friday, 30 July 2004 21:47 (twenty years ago) link

super xpost!

Expanding on that Marlins comment a little bit...

I guess the AA prospect is some pretty highly regarded pitcher in the Marlins system, Bill Murphy. I can't really speak to the foolishness of letting him go since I've never heard of him.

But the Marlins just downgraded their 1B not just for this year, but most likely long term. How many 1Bs with an 880 OPS making 300k/yr will they find? Conine gives up about 150 points of OPS to Choi. Encarnacion gives up another 30 points of OPS to replace Conine!

Brad Penny's loss hurts and I'm not sure who they think they'll replace him with. Darren Oliver? Marlin please. Didn't they let Encarnacion go for a reason last year? Why do they want him back?

They shore up behind the plate to be sure, but I think they just blew up their team to do so and may have hurt themselves in the long term too.

mattbot (mattbot), Friday, 30 July 2004 21:49 (twenty years ago) link

And it's clear now that this is only about half the deal, so don't bother reading my little rant.

Encarnacion for Larry Walker has been officially rumored during the Marlins game.

mattbot (mattbot), Friday, 30 July 2004 22:40 (twenty years ago) link

just at a glance, it sure seems like the dodgers make out like bandits to me. i'll be interested in hearing the consensus takes on these deals, but my initial reaction:

benson trade, way good for mets
zambrano trade, way good for d-rays
monster deal, way good for dodgers


xpost but wait there's more, eh? i read something awhile ago about arizona being worked in and (randy) johnson possibly going to the dodgers.

John (jdahlem), Friday, 30 July 2004 22:43 (twenty years ago) link

actually the benson trade probably wasn't way good for the mets, but i don't think it was good for the pirates. an ok trade, i guess.

John (jdahlem), Friday, 30 July 2004 22:46 (twenty years ago) link

The self-described radio pundits are puzzled that DePodesta has traded "heart and soul of the Dodgers" Lo Duca.

The Dreaded Rear Admiral (Leee), Friday, 30 July 2004 23:14 (twenty years ago) link

I have a sneaking suspicion that when the dust settles from all these moves, DePodesta is going to come out looking very, very good.

mattbot (mattbot), Friday, 30 July 2004 23:16 (twenty years ago) link

the talk is: johnson to dodgers, charles johnson to dodgers and maybe finley, too.

do the dodgers really have the juice to pick up all these dudes?

jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Saturday, 31 July 2004 00:36 (twenty years ago) link

Mets are stooopid. Marlins are ultra-stoopid (but Jeff Loria's the owner; par for the course). Dodgers are smart. D-Rays ain't as dumb as I thought.

David R. (popshots75`), Saturday, 31 July 2004 01:58 (twenty years ago) link

I think the Marlins are more happy to get a good setup man out of the bullpen and a solid starting catcher more than Encarnacion. From what Gammons said this afternoon, they want to move Cabrera into Left, as he has had problems out there and cost them a couple games.

I guess they figure that with Pavano, Beckett, Willis, Burnette and go fish they can get the job done. Beckett just came off the DL. Other than Benitez, their bullpen has really struggled and they have lost a bunch of close games. Mota hasn't been lights out like last year, but he is still very good.

What will be interesting to see is how effective Gagne is without Mota in front of him. Mota pitched nearly as well as Gagne last year in the setup role.

Finley is a free agent after the end of the season, so they might be getting him as a rental. I've read that the D-Backs didn't want to trade him to San Diego, as they hope to maybe resign him perhaps for next season if they can trade him off before the deadline.

Earl Nash (earlnash), Saturday, 31 July 2004 02:03 (twenty years ago) link

Brad Penny's loss hurts and I'm not sure who they think they'll replace him with. Darren Oliver? Marlin please.

Ahem....Darren Oliver is an Astro.

boldbury (boldbury), Saturday, 31 July 2004 02:44 (twenty years ago) link

earl, i guess i'm just not that high on lo duca, or even mota, who had an amazing year last year but, if you check his peripherals, he's not the same pitcher now. in fact, he looks exactly like 2002 aside from his groundball rate (which is important).

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 03:28 (twenty years ago) link

sorry, got distracted there. the thought was supposed to be that the GB rate is imporant, but he's probably not a 2.14 ERA pitcher.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 03:33 (twenty years ago) link

Plus bullpen arms are notoriously hard to predict for the long-term. As far as I'm concerned, the Marlins gave up two, possibily three long term solutions for their team in exchange for one possible long term solution (Lo Duca), one definite short-term solution (Mota), and one Encarnaciaon.

Seriously, why can't I be a GM?

mattbot (mattbot), Saturday, 31 July 2004 03:34 (twenty years ago) link

especially 30+ year old relievers with only one good year under their belts who've shown significant regression since? i'm not saying mota's a fluke, but i'm not sold on him.

penny would've been gone after next year, but still. i also had no idea encarnacion had been as horrible (this year and in the past) as he has. the dodgers were probably happy to dump him. i don't know what lo duca's contract situation is, but he hasn't historically held up well in the second half, and is getting old. choi, on the other hand, was a definite long-term option and mashes RHP.

i've gotta think the dodgers won this one in a bad way.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 03:46 (twenty years ago) link

Encarnacion is probably a rental, but it does fix a defensive hole as does Lo Duca. Take a look at their pitching stats, they don't have any other reliever with an ERA under 3.50, that has to hurt. At least with Mota, they have someone that can bridge to Benitez.

Are you that sold on Choi? The fact that this top prospect has now been dumped twice in a year might say something. Who knows about the AA guy, he could be a hall of famer in waiting or do nothing.

Unless the Marlins get on a streak like last year, which I doubt will happen, I don't think they can catch Atlanta which is streaking away (lead is up to 4.5).

The Dodgers are probably going to make the playoffs, but are Penny and Choi enough to push them over the top? I don't know about that one, unless they spin Penny for the big unit. They need another big bat to go with Beltre. Choi isn't a wiz with the glove either, he has eight errors, more than any other Dodger.

It just seems to me that the Marlins addressed more what they needed than LA, which got another #3 starter and fair to middling bat like the bunch they already have.

Earl Nash (earlnash), Saturday, 31 July 2004 13:39 (twenty years ago) link

Just to answer one question, yeah, I'm that sold on Choi. He's been mis-used, platooned, and undervalued for taking walks for basically his entire major league career. I hated that the Cubs didn't show a commitment to him last year, even though I like Derrek Lee now.

He may turn out to be the next Mark Bellhorn with a little more pop, I dunno. But maybe in LA he'll finally get a chance to be the everyday first basemen.

Unless the Marlins get on a streak like last year, which I doubt will happen, I don't think they can catch Atlanta which is streaking away...

Yeah, see this is why I think the deal makes even less sense. They're going all in in a division they should be able to win with the talent they have, or at least without having to resort to a blockbuster trade. I think the Mets and Marlins traded away enough young talent yesterday to ensure that the Braves will compete for the NL East title for the next jillion years.

mattbot (mattbot), Saturday, 31 July 2004 14:17 (twenty years ago) link

i agree with m-bot w/r/t: choi. he's never been a regular everyday player mostly because his splits against lefties are a huge dropoff. maybe with some more ABs he can try to pull it around.

gygax! (gygax!), Saturday, 31 July 2004 15:39 (twenty years ago) link

x-postie!

"Fair to middling bat" (in 218 ABs) = .270 / .388 / .495 @ 25 years of age w/ an isolated power (SLG - BA, a show of strungth) of .225

Dodger first baseboys this year:
Shawn Green (373 ABs) = .260 / .340 / .429 (ISO = .169)
Robin Ventura (97 ABs) = .216 / .315 / .289 (ISO = .073)
Olmedo Saenz = (72 ABs) = .236 / .329 / .458 (ISO = .222)

My chest kinda hurts, so I don't wanna see the sort of laughable efforts Choi's replacements (WIL CORDERO AND DAMION EASLEY?) (and even / ESPECIALLY Jeff Conine) have put forth in his stead.

And if the guy actually had more than 31 ABs against lefties (w/ only 6 hits), people might see the sort of pop that lead him to slap around the PCL lefites to the tune of a .550 slugging (as opposed to his .501 SLG against the guys he's supposed to hit).

Don't even trot out the counting stats as a sign of his weakness, given he's been hitting behind both Lowell & Cabrera (and Jeffy Conine - doi?), and if you project him to a full season's production, he's got 30ish homers and over 80 RBIs, which is definitely fine for a guy in the lower half of your batting order. And, hey, y'know, if you put those 30 HRs in a run producing spot of the lineup, you might have that magical 100+ RBI number make an appearance.

I just realized I've spent a good portion of time this year defending & big-upping Hee Sop Choi to naysayers & rabblerousers. Can someone get me in touch w/ his agent, yo?

David R. (popshots75`), Saturday, 31 July 2004 16:33 (twenty years ago) link

eric chavez, btw, has finally started hitting LHP - to the tune of a 1.023 OPS. that's in 120 PAs, so while it's surely too high, it's gotta be significant. this guy could be a monster from here on out, and it should make all those years of penciling him in against lefthanded starters worthwhile.

still, i find it difficult to believe the same will happen to choi. i'm just throwing something out, but i'd guess guys with shorter swings and good plate coverage who don't strike out an obscene amount are more likely to make that turnaround. choi is not that guy.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 17:05 (twenty years ago) link

does anyone else wish the deadline was still midnight, or know why it was changed, or if i'm just imagining that?? cuz it was a lot cooler when it was midnight. now i've gotta sit tight here for another hour, but as far as i can tell absolutely NOTHING is happening. man, this is the dullest, most anticlimactic deadline ever.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 18:10 (twenty years ago) link

i speak too soon once again. the nomar for clement deal is alive and well. apparently it's nomar and lowe for clement and cabrera (the cubs will have traded for orlando).

you can sit back and watch the hysterics unfold here: http://p086.ezboard.com/fsonsofsamhornbostonredsox.showMessageRange?topicID=13592.topic&start=3461&stop=3478

the snag is supposedly that the sox want a prospect, which is ludicrous on their part. nomar for clement is an even swap with long-term considerations taken accout for; so is lowe and cabrera. i really hope the cubs don't give in here, especially because, with wood and prior's health, clement could still be very valuable to them.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 18:20 (twenty years ago) link

oh, an apparently the sox may think nomar's health concerns aren't over with. the cubs would be crazy to give them anything else of value.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 18:22 (twenty years ago) link

now they're saying it's not a top prospect, it's...NICK JOHNSON

i am going to freak out

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 18:47 (twenty years ago) link

aaaand....nothing happened. i think. but finley went to the dodgers.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 19:10 (twenty years ago) link

what's really just incomprehensible to me is that the yankees didn't even acquire a single reliever. i still think cashman is a smart guy, but overall, our front office is the dumbest in baseball. there's really no excuse for not going out and getting SOMEBODY.

John (jdahlem), Saturday, 31 July 2004 23:24 (twenty years ago) link

gammons has the definitive article on the dodgers/sox trades:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1850438

John (jdahlem), Monday, 2 August 2004 01:42 (twenty years ago) link

Definitive? I think he mighta gone too easy on Epstein. Sheehan suggests on BP that the Sox essentially caved to Nomar acting like a dick since the failed winter trade, and that the "improved defense" of Cabrera and Minky doesn't help much on a strikeout/flyball staff. I saw them blow that game to the Twins on TV today, and they look like a squad of sleepwalkers.

The Chisox trading even a mortal 2004 Loaiza for Contreras is another white flag, no?

Of course Benson and V Zambrano will be Rick P's projects now, but VZ's walk rate is esp worrying. At least the pressure's off since the Mets got swept outta the race this weekend... Someone on BP says that Kazmir looks like a future oft-injured risk, a la Darren Dreifort.

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 August 2004 03:52 (twenty years ago) link

won't help much? i don't know how serious nomar's health problems are, but from what i'm reading into how the sox are spinning this, they're serious enough. nomar's got a very good defensive rep (at least as far as i know), so i don't think epstein would be publicly saying his defense could cost them the series if there wasn't any substance there.


here's a chance for range factor to be relevant for once:

reese 4.86
nomar 3.84

now i'm not saying nomar's THAT bad...but there's a decent chance he could be pretty bad. and i'm partly saying this because i think epstein et al evaluated this and concluded as much.

this isn't, of course, taking into account the fact that he might lose/have lost considerable playing time, which would've left the sox with ricky guiterez as their starting shortstop. and depending on who you listen to, nomar was a cancer in the clubhouse as well. in short, this move was simply safe - epstein knows he's as good as anyone in the WC race with or without nomar, but garciaparra wasn't playing defense, didn't want to be there, was leaving at the end of the year, and might have gone down any time. so he was traded. in exchange, the sox got two solid players, one of whom can be a big help in the long-term, cabrera and renteria being the only two obvious options to replace nomar.

maybe epstein could've handled it better, maybe even a lot better. but as it is, the sox are not a worse team than before the deadline. they have enough talent that they didn't need to take a risk on whether or not nomar was going to DL himself, or ever get back to 100%.


and i really have no idea what you're going on about w/ contreras and loaiza. the sox won that one big. my only guess is that the yankees wanted innings (which makes a lot of sense in theory, but i'm not really sure it's going to work out) and/or really are near their cap and wanted to free up some cash for beltran + a pitcher this offseason. also, how on earth is that trade a "white flag" for the chisox (this is the second time i've seen that expression used) when they are the ones taking on cash? they traded a cheap, shitty pitcher for an expensive pitcher with great stuff and shitty results. why would anyone consider that a sign that they're giving up? they're spending cash and taking a risk to get a divisional pennant.

John (jdahlem), Monday, 2 August 2004 06:25 (twenty years ago) link

I don't get it either -- how Contreras is plagued by "shitty results" when he appears to be a shitty MLB pitcher. It doesn't do anything for the rest of 2004 except hike the Chisox' chances of going on winter vacation October 4.

VORP, 2004

Loaiza 15.3
Contreras -0.5


(btw, a BP staffer was recently asked how to directly compare the value of a pitcher against a position player, and the reply was VORP is one way. It's designed to be position-neutral.)

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 12:23 (twenty years ago) link

I don't think think I buy that huge VORP discrepancy:

2004
Contreras:
ERA 5.64, WHIP 1.41, BAA .250, OBPA .332, SLGA .462, OPSA .794, K/9 7.71, K/BB 1.95, GB/FB .85

Loaiza:
ERA 4.86, WHIP 1.43, BAA .283, OBPA .334, SLGA .471, OPSA .805, K/9 5.31, K/BB 1.84, GB/FB 1.01

Loaiza only has the better superficial stats unless there are some park factors that are giving Contreras an unfair edge?

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 13:22 (twenty years ago) link

The Cell's given up the most HRs of any park this year according to ESPN. (Am I reading that right?)

mattbot (mattbot), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 13:27 (twenty years ago) link

Also, Contreras is (relatively speaking) walking a LOT more folks (cf. the gap between BAA & OBPA).

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 13:37 (twenty years ago) link

Contreras: 9 HRs allowed home, 13 HRs allowed away
Loaiza: 16 HRs allowed home, 7 HRs allowed away

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 13:37 (twenty years ago) link

Also, Contreras is (relatively speaking) walking a LOT more folks (cf. the gap between BAA & OBPA).

but DavidR, more importantly Contreras is allowing less batters on base!!!

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 13:38 (twenty years ago) link

also David R: even of the batters that do get hits off of either pitcher, the ones who get hits off of Loaiza hit the ball for more bases.

How much of Contreras' low VORP can be attributed to the Yankees' defense?

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 14:23 (twenty years ago) link

Holy crap!

Contreras: 95.2 IP, 93 H, 22 HRs
Loaiza: 140.2 IP, 156 H, 23 HRs

JC's on pace to allow (in a full year of pitching) over FORTY homers?

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 14:32 (twenty years ago) link

and even then, his slugging % allowed is LESS than Loaiza (who obviously allows more doubles/triples/singles then Contreras).

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 14:38 (twenty years ago) link

Well, the differential between their SLG (.009) is enough that, given the low number of innings JC has under his belt this year, a double or two (or, more likely, more taters) would jack his SLG well past EL's. For EL to give up fewer HRs (rate-wise) than JC while pitching in a bandbox like this year's Comiskeyerica (as opposed to the somewhat pitcher-friendly Yankee Stad?) points to EL having more suckess from this point forward than JC, which is damn faint praise for sure. JC's gotta learn to turn those line-drives near the poles into modest gappers.

Also, I'd imagine the White Sox IF (Konerko / Uribe / Valentin / Crede) has less range and more suckitude defensively than the Yankee IF (Clark / Wilson / Jetes / Rodney) - is there a place where hits allowed are broken down by type?

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 14:48 (twenty years ago) link

blaar blar

the point is pretty simple: contereras can dominate, loaiza can't. while the trade is a bigger risk for the sox than it is for the yankees (for the $ if nothing else), they're NOT waving the flag. they might've gotten an ace-type pitcher for a mediocre one. you just don't throw games like jose has, this year and last, if you don't have the stuff do it. scouts say he does, and when his head or mechanics or whatever don't get in the way, he's done it.

the yankees got loaiza because they think he's capable of pitching a lot of 6IP 4ER starts and letting the offense carry him, while contreras was more a feast or famine type. and i think it's possible they wanted to save some bucks as well, believe it or not. we'll see if it works out, i guess, but it's hard to be pleased from my POV. we're basically hoping loaiza stays consistently mediocre enough to keep the yankees O (which isn't looking so hot to me these days) in games and save the bullpen (mostly the long relief) some innings. sox fans can hope for a lot more.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 15:57 (twenty years ago) link

Here are the pre-/post-all star splits for 2003-2004 season to date:

Contreras:
ERA 4.62/2.56

Loaiza:
ERA 4.17/4.58

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 16:09 (twenty years ago) link

btw to answer dave's q, you can do google name-espn.com-splits.

John (jdahlem), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 16:28 (twenty years ago) link

yeah contreras has
been much better since his wife
and kids have been here

Begs2Differ (Begs2Differ), Tuesday, 3 August 2004 18:42 (twenty years ago) link

two weeks pass...
Trades and Aquisitions Update:

Marlins-
Lo Duca, Mota, and Seanez are all playing well.
Valdez is playing about the same as with old club.
Encarnacion is not doing much.

Dodgers-
Finley is playing well.
Choi is not doing much.
Penny is on the DL.

Red Sox-
Mienkiewicz and Cabrera are both hitting about the same as with their old clubs. Cabrera already has four errors in 19 games, Mienkiewicz hasn't yet had a miscue in the field with the Red Sox.

Cubs-
Nomar is hitting like Nomar. He has three errors since joining the Cubs.

Earl Nash (earlnash), Monday, 23 August 2004 02:38 (twenty years ago) link

Loaiza looked HOTT against the Angels on Saturday through 3 (5 Ks), though he gave up a couple of fly balls, which was suspicious since the Yankee Mag I picked up said EL was a sinker-baller. Also, A-Rod let him down w/ a ole under-the-glove double that should've been an error, and a yip over Olerud's head that definitely was an error. Sure enough, though, the Loaiza Yankee fans have come to know and eviscerate arrived in the 4th inning - Guillen & DaVanon go yahd to the alleys (& not in a shameful just-barely fashion), and some other guys get hits, and the boobirds showered EL with their feces. 5 consecutive hits later, he's gonzo.

Please note: The Red Sox have won 12 of 15, with OC gone goofy w/ the bat in the past couple of days. The Cubs have split their last 10 (though Nomah is, as Earl said, hitting like Nomah), the Dodgers lead has increased (or at least it did prior to Gagne's week-long hiccup) (LENNY HARRIS?), and the Marlins have treaded water for the most part (from what I recall).

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 23 August 2004 11:51 (twenty years ago) link

the Dodgers lead has increased (or at least it did prior to Gagne's week-long hiccup)

Hmm...

NL West:
Los Angeles - Last 10: 5-5
San Francisco - Last 10: 8-2

Giants are still 4.5 back. The padres were 4.5 games back 2 weeks ago.

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 23 August 2004 12:51 (twenty years ago) link

I thought it had, though! They were about 6 games up when BP wrote their "go Dodgers" trade analysis column a while back.

David R. (popshots75`), Monday, 23 August 2004 13:58 (twenty years ago) link

Teams whose trades discussed records since big trades where made:

Red Sox - 23-7
Marlins - 18-11
Dodgers – 18-12
Cubs - 17-12

The Red Sox success isn't really tied much to the trade, although Cabrera has played pretty well. They are the hottest team in the AL over that period and have kept with the blistering pace the Cardinals have been putting up.

The Marlins success is very much tied to the trade, as Lo Duca has hit quite well, Mota and Seanez have definitely improved the bullpen and Valdez has been solid going 3-1 with a 4.00 ERA.

The Dodgers haven't gotten anything out of Penny or Choi, but Finley has hit very well. Having another left handed power hitter in that lineup has to help Shawn Green and Beltre.

Nomar has played pretty well, but it is now obvious the Cubs needed to get another reliever for the strech run. They have played OK, but haven't been able to pull away.

It will be interesting to see how this weekend off because of the hurricane for the Marlins/Cubs effects them down the stretch. The Cubs probably could use some rest for their pitching staff, but the Fish were very hot and probably would not want to have a three day break in the middle of a winning streak. These games could definitely be interesting when they are replayed, as they could decide the wildcard and could include long plane flights on scheduled off days.


Earl Nash (earlnash), Saturday, 4 September 2004 23:34 (twenty years ago) link

who has the deeper long relief of the cubs and the marlins?

gygax! (gygax!), Sunday, 5 September 2004 19:22 (twenty years ago) link


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