baseball prospectus playoff odds chart

Message Bookmarked

Bookmark Removed

... in which the regular season more or less wraps up the way you'd expect.
Here
I guess the most interesting/confusing thing there is how they've predicted that the Yankees and Red Sox will win approximately the same number of games the rest of the way. This is a bit surprising considering the Sox's huge lead in Expected Winning Percentage, and similar strength of schedule down the stretch.

― Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Saturday, 4 September 2004 19:17 (twenty years ago)

I love the slap of reality that chart delivers. The BBTN Jocks can't stop chirping "Watch out fo the Marlins"... who have a 2% shot at the w.c.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 14:16 (twenty years ago)

I don't think the Playoff Odds Report takes stuff like exhaustion into account, but the Marlins play 30 games in 27 days. The Cubs have 27 over the next 27 and I think the Giants play about four games over that same span.

― mattbot (mattbot), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 16:29 (twenty years ago)

No, exhaustion doesn't figure in their calculations.
But they're stuck with that schedule because of rescheduling due to the hurricane, right?

― Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 17:36 (twenty years ago)

yeah, double headers really jack with the rotations, who are florida and chicago's spot-starters?

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 17:49 (twenty years ago)

The Cubs have Glendon Rusch (who's been better than Prior) and Sergio Mitre who started the year as the 5th starter but was inconsistent. He just got recalled from AAA where he was pitching quite well, sub-3 ERA I think. Both are working long relief out of the pen right now.

As long as they don't burn out their bullpen in extra-inning marathons or blowouts, they should be able to keep everyone on normal rest. Big if with this bullpen though.

― mattbot (mattbot), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 18:33 (twenty years ago)

Here's a link to the actual chart (updated daily!) --> LINK

As of today, this chart shows the Red Sox having a 51% chance at the division! Given that they've breezed through this tough stretch of schedule (going 6-1 in their first 7 of 9 games against the AL Best), the only quality competition they have left on their schedule is the Yankees! (And those damn Baltimore bastards...)

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 19:11 (twenty years ago)

very surprising how much higher the cubs' chances are than the astros, giants or pads since their records are so close...

― Yanc3y (ystrickler), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 20:25 (twenty years ago)

Wow! When I started the thread (only three days ago!) I think it was 70-30 in favour of the Yanks winning the division.
(xpost)

― Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 20:26 (twenty years ago)

that's calculated using strength of schedule factors, but it's worth noting the element of fatigue that someone brought up earlier in that the cubs/marlins will have virtually no days off with a few double headers thrown in for good measure. if either of these teams do make it to the playoffs, will they (esp. the bullpen) have enough left to make a run at even the pennant against stronger teams?

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 20:28 (twenty years ago)

that was an xpost to yanc3y.

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 20:29 (twenty years ago)

It's interesting that there's literally a 1 in 200 000 chance that the Astros will overcome an 18-game deficit in the next three weeks and win their division.

― Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 20:36 (twenty years ago)

the marlins are starting someone they brought up from class a in one of friday's doubleheader games.

― maura (maura), Wednesday, 8 September 2004 06:08 (twenty years ago)

D-Train & Rent-A-Car!

― David R. (popshots75`), Wednesday, 8 September 2004 12:05 (twenty years ago)

I'd say starting a newby starter is a 50/50 chance of it working. Sometimes a new starter comes through in that first start, as they are pumped up and no one has ever seen them pitch. Then again, sometimes they completely meltdown and get shellacked.

All of the playoff contenders brought up a few arms as sacrificial lambs if they get into a blowout.

The Angels brought up K-Rod a couple of years ago and he was so good he ended up being their best reliever through the playoffs.

― Earl Nash (earlnash), Wednesday, 8 September 2004 13:50 (twenty years ago)

Marlins' shot at the postseason up to 12%, Astros to 25%.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 9 September 2004 13:09 (twenty years ago)

bump

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 16 September 2004 13:28 (twenty years ago)

The Giants 11% shot of taking the division intruiges me. They have six left with LA, right?

― mattbot (mattbot), Thursday, 16 September 2004 13:50 (twenty years ago)

yeah it's pretty much SD vs. LA vs. SF from here on out. spoiler central.

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 16 September 2004 14:30 (twenty years ago)

ten months pass...

This year's:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

If you read all the fine print, one thing the system doesn't account for is WHO the players are (ie, history) cuz they don't know how to do it.

Most intriguing -- playoff odds for

Indians 49%
Twins 2%

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 11 August 2005 14:51 (nineteen years ago)

That Indians # must be propped up by a strength of schedule factor, Barry do you have that link too?

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 11 August 2005 15:00 (nineteen years ago)

There's a link to the "log" factor that they use to determine the chances of winning each game ... strength of schedule is incorporated into that via the winning %ages of the opposing teams.

Interesting that the White Sox are projected to play .500 ball the rest of the way.

I also love following the miniscule chances of certain teams ... the Pirates have a 0.00005% chance of making the playoffs. Go Bucs! Keep the hope alive!!

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 11 August 2005 18:33 (nineteen years ago)

Most intriguing -- playoff odds for

Indians 49%
Twins 2%

Amazing, isn't it?

― whiteout (bobnope), Friday, 12 August 2005 06:38 (nineteen years ago)

Including last night, Tribe had 8 left vs KC, so...

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 12 August 2005 12:14 (nineteen years ago)

bump

Jays down to 2% after getting swept by $&#(#*$ Detroit.

Everyone's been saying that the Twins are back in it, but they're still only listed at 9%.

It's interesting that the Yankees and Indians, who currently trail the A's in the WC, have a better chance of making the playoffs than the A's do. The 2nd place AL West team averages only 87 wins, and 91 are needed to take the WC (on average). Are the strength of schedule factors really that disparate?

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Monday, 22 August 2005 22:40 (nineteen years ago)

The Indians had a cupcake schedule down the stretch last year and folded up big time. This year they seem to be taking advantage of playing cruddy teams, as their starting pitching has remained solid and they are hitting big since the break.

The NL East race has gotten much more interesting in the past few weeks. A month ago it looked like Atlanta was going to run away and hide, but they have only been playing around .500 while the rest of the division has gotten hot. The Braves have seven games left with both Washington, Philly and six with the Marlins and Mets. This race could get tight and interesting. The Phils are only 3.5 back going into tonight.

I'd say the Astros might have the inside line on the NL Wild Card as the NL East is so even and they are going to be playing each other.

I think a NL spoiler could be the Reds, who have series against Washington, Atlanta, Philly and Houston. The Reds have quietly played much improved baseball in the past two months. Their lineup can chew up an opponent's pitching staff.

― Earl Nash (earlnash), Monday, 22 August 2005 23:11 (nineteen years ago)

God, I want the Marilins to win that division so bad!

― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 05:21 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.jimpoz.com/quotes/images/speakers/monroe-m.jpg http://www.konfiweb.de/web/img/christ_Marilyn_Manson.jpg http://homepage.ntlworld.com/barry.r.clarke/marilyn.jpg

― jaymc (jaymc), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 05:28 (nineteen years ago)

wtf?

― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 05:55 (nineteen years ago)

The A's have to play LAA, Yanks, Boston a total of 14 times; Cleveland is done with all of those, and has 7 vs KC and 6 (after last night) vs Tampa Bay (yeah, nice post-All-Star record, but still). Aside from 6 with Boston and 3 in Oakland, all the Yanks' remaining games are against Toronto or sub-.500 teams. So the A's do have the considerably tougher sked.

>God, I want the Marilins to win that division so bad!<

What, two wild-card world titles ain't enough for the Marilyns?

You've gotta wonder why Bonds will try playing in Sept when the Giants
are around a 3% shot.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 13:07 (nineteen years ago)

Because THIS TIME IT COUNTS!

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 13:09 (nineteen years ago)

You've gotta wonder why Bonds will try playing in Sept when the Giants are around a 3% shot.

The 2005 National League West Division

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 13:31 (nineteen years ago)

Yeah, because that team's gonna do some damage if they actually make the playoffs.

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 13:34 (nineteen years ago)

C'mon, the Pads are clearly not as terrible as the other teams.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 13:36 (nineteen years ago)

Sorry Doc, the Padres ARE that terrible!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/gifs/nlwestwins.gif

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 14:08 (nineteen years ago)

Man, EVERY TEAM in the NL West has allowed at least 30 more runs than they've scored. The Pads have the best differential, but that's not saying much - the 2nd best team (the Dodgers) has a differential of -59.

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 14:12 (nineteen years ago)

BTW - Indians are only 8 back right now, BUT 10 back in the loss column, and the White Sox have 4 less games played.

― David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 14:15 (nineteen years ago)

So yeah, looking at that chart... if Bonds comes back to pre-injury form and Alou stays healthy (as well as Schmidt and Lowry stay consistent), they could come back and maybe even match up well against the Braves or Marlins. A lot of "if"s, I know...

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 14:38 (nineteen years ago)

Gygax, where did you get that Race Chart from? (why did E$PN.com discontinue theirs?)

From the chart, it looks like the Giants have been the division's best team over the past two months.

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 14:47 (nineteen years ago)

That's from Stude's charts on The Hardball Times.

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 15:51 (nineteen years ago)

The Giants also got their closer back (in Benitez, their first legitimate closer since the 2002 World Series) and I can't tell you how many games the Giants bullpen lost in the 8th/9th but trust me, it's a lot.

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 15:53 (nineteen years ago)

What, two wild-card world titles ain't enough for the Marilyns?
I meant the NL east - I just really don't like the Braves and I figure the Marlins have the best chance of taking them out. Plus I can't help but root for Delgado.

― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 17:05 (nineteen years ago)

I'm thinking they'renot gonna pitch like this all September...

So gax, even if .500 is enough to take the Werst, you're looking for the Jints to go 26-12? That'd take Bonds, Benitez, McCovey, Bill Terry and Jeff (One Flap Down) Leonard.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 17:41 (nineteen years ago)

Take a look at that Graph again upthread Morbs, 26-12 against that POS division is entirely possible. As Barry pointed out, the Giants are the only team with any teeth left and with Alou and Benitez back now, and possibly Bonds back in a couple weeks, this is a completely different team.

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 17:56 (nineteen years ago)

Those teeth may be Chiclets! I'm hoping the Mets will wake you outta your opium dream next weekend, Noodles.

I'd totally forgotten the PADS WENT 24-6 this spring til King Kaufman in Salon wrote it today.

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 18:05 (nineteen years ago)

From a Jim Baker column on Prospectus:

One of the many problems with the wild-card concept is the fact that the schedule maker cannot gerrymander the schedule so that those teams competing for it can meet head-to-head down the stretch. This is an obvious but frequently overlooked downfall of having a back door into the playoffs.

A little less than one-third of the games yet to be played by the five American League wild-card hopefuls come against one another. They are:

9: Toronto vs. New York
6: Cleveland vs. Minnesota
3: Cleveland vs. Toronto
3: Cleveland vs. Oakland
3: Oakland vs. Minnesota
3: Oakland vs. New York
0: Cleveland vs. New York, Oakland vs. Toronto, Minnesota vs. New York, Minnesota vs. Toronto

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 20:06 (nineteen years ago)

That graph is not Tufte-approved.

/graphic-design joke

― boldbury (boldbury), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 20:48 (nineteen years ago)

I can't tell you how many games the Giants bullpen lost in the 8th/9th but trust me, it's a lot.

This is the truth, although I think Baker and Alou have proven that they can ruin just about any closer.

― polyphonic (polyphonic), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 21:28 (nineteen years ago)

Like Joe Nathan?

― gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 21:30 (nineteen years ago)

Nathan didn't close, though.

Nen (career ending injury)
Worrell (disappeared off the face of the earth)
Herges (DFA)
Hermanson (completely fell apart down the stretch)
Borowski (dead at this point, right?)
Hawkins (imploded)
Walker (sucks)

I guess Dempster has been okay but not particularly good or bad.

― polyphonic (polyphonic), Tuesday, 23 August 2005 21:42 (nineteen years ago)

Hermanson (completely fell apart down the stretch)

He pitched in 5 games straight (including 13 of the last 23 games) to end the Giants' playoff run. That is not so much falling apart as it is sheer overuse.

― gygax! (gygax!), Wednesday, 24 August 2005 19:01 (nineteen years ago)

That is not so much falling apart as it is sheer overuse.

But my whole point is that his falling apart was due to his use. I mean, that's why I brought up Alou and Baker in the first place.

― polyphonic (polyphonic), Wednesday, 24 August 2005 19:05 (nineteen years ago)

Borowski (dead at this point, right?)
He's been pitching rather well for the Rays in the set-up role. So i guess you're half right.

― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, 24 August 2005 19:25 (nineteen years ago)

Looks like the Mets & the Astros have the best shot at the NL wild card (about 27% each), and the Indians have the best shot (41%) in the AL. Cubs are barely holding on (0.1%)...wait till next year...again...

http://www.coolstandings.com

BP playoff odds look to be similar to those at coolstandings.

― smoot365 (GoCubbies), Friday, 26 August 2005 22:46 (nineteen years ago)

two weeks pass...

BP's most likely to blow their division lead:

Angels 41%
Red Sox 21%
White Sox 19%
Braves 9%
Padres 3%

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 15 September 2005 12:43 (nineteen years ago)

Haha, the most dominant team within their division = PADRES!

― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 15 September 2005 13:44 (nineteen years ago)

You mean except for STL?

― gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 15 September 2005 13:54 (nineteen years ago)

First place schmirst place.

― David R. (popshots75`), Thursday, 15 September 2005 14:14 (nineteen years ago)

two weeks pass...

Yankees 81%
Indians 64%
Red Sox 53%

Astros 94%
Phillies 6%

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 30 September 2005 16:49 (nineteen years ago)

ten months pass...

The NYT just published an article about the BP Playoff Odds Chart (reprinted in a few other places if you g00gle for it, including here: http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/06/sports/ODDS.php)

― NoTimeBeforeTime (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 10 August 2006 21:31 (eighteen years ago)

There are 3 different charts now, tho (w/PECOTA projections, and don't bother 'splainin the other to me).

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 August 2006 17:58 (eighteen years ago)

the other (ELO) is more trend-sensitive.

if you're a scrabble tourney player (*ahem*), or have ever done "ladder"-based statistical analysis (double-*ahem*), it may ring a bell.

― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, 16 August 2006 18:35 (eighteen years ago)

It's a livin' thing

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 16 August 2006 18:49 (eighteen years ago)

ELECTRIC LIGHT ORCHESTRA

― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 16 August 2006 19:19 (eighteen years ago)

four years pass...

does anyone still have a subscription to BP? i havent bothered in a couple of years, but up until this season i still checked the Team Audit pages, which are now much more bare than they used to be. can anyone with a sub confirm whether or not they look better behind the pay wall?

― anime hitler, the futanari führer (Princess TamTam), Thursday, 19 May 2011 19:57 (fourteen years ago)

I never look at that kinda stuff, so i can't say

― the gay bloggers are onto the faggot tweets (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 19 May 2011 20:00 (fourteen years ago)

do you think you could take a screenshot of one of the audit pages for me so I can see the difference? please? http://i.imgur.com/BdyAc.gif

― anime hitler, the futanari führer (Princess TamTam), Thursday, 19 May 2011 20:06 (fourteen years ago)

haha, do you think I know how to take a screenshot?

― the gay bloggers are onto the faggot tweets (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 19 May 2011 21:15 (fourteen years ago)

lol i figured that was a longshot

― anime hitler, the futanari führer (Princess TamTam), Thursday, 19 May 2011 21:19 (fourteen years ago)

morbs:

1) go to page in question, press the control plus print screen buttons at the same time
2) open up ms paint (you have this) then control letter v
3) save as DONTFORGETTHISIMAGEIMRIGHTHERE.jpg on your Desktop, so you know it's there.
4) go to web page imgur.com
5) upload image from desktop
6) control c the little squiggly code that ends with .jpg
7) use ilxor [ img ] [ /img] tag (i know you know how to do this)
8) paste the squiggly into the tag and enter your post

YOU CAN MAKE US PROUD

― sanskrit, Friday, 20 May 2011 01:43 (fourteen years ago)

way too much work for Tam Tam's benefit

― the gay bloggers are onto the faggot tweets (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 May 2011 02:55 (fourteen years ago)

consarn it

― sanskrit, Saturday, 21 May 2011 00:26 (fourteen years ago)

haha

― mookieproof, Saturday, 21 May 2011 00:50 (fourteen years ago)

You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.