Predict Pazz n' Jop 03

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I'll just do the albums right now. Maybe I'll follow up predicting the singles poll or if someone else wants to give a shot, by all means.

Here's roughly how I see the albums poll shaping up:

-The White Stripes, Elephant
-OutKast, Speakerboxxx / The Love Below
-Dizzee Rascal, Boy in da Corner
-Radiohead, Hail to the Thief
-Led Zeppelin, How the West Was Won
-Jay-Z, The Black Album
-Basement Jaxx, Kish Kash
-Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Fever to Tell
-The Strokes, Room on Fire
-The New Pornographers, Electric Version
-50 Cent, Get Rich or Die Tryin'
-New Missy Elliot
-Cat Power, You Are Free
-Drive-by Truckers, Decoration Day
-Lucinda Williams, World Without Tears
-The Rapture, Echoes
-Ted Leo & the Pharmacists, Hearts of Oak
-Warren Zevon, The Wind
-Four Tet, Rounds
-Bubba Sparxxx, Deliverance
-Fountains of Wayne, Welcome Interstate Managers
-The Shins, Chutes Too Narrow
-Ryan Adams, Rock N' Roll
-Blur, Think Tank
-Yo La Tengo, Summer Sun
-The Postal Service, Give Up
-Super Furry Animals, Phantom Power
-Beth Gibbons & Rustin Mann, Out of Season
-Stephen Malkmus & the Jicks, Pig Lib
-Manitoba, Up in Flames
-My Morning Jacket, It Still Moves
-Junior Senior, D-D-Don't Stop the Beat
-Electric Six, Fire
-Liz Phair, Liz Phair
-Panjabi MC, Beware
-Atmosphere, Seven's Travels
-Elvis Costello, North
-Luomo, The Present Lover
-Cursive, The Ugly Organ
-Death Cab for Cutie, Transatlanticism
-The Mars Volta, De-Loused in the Comatorium

― Josh Timmermann (Josh Timmermann), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 19:53 (twenty-two years ago)

i'll be shocked if dizzee and the jaxx finish that high

― mark p (Mark P), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 19:59 (twenty-two years ago)

yeah ilm is warping people's views of reality here

― strongo hulkington's ghost (dubplatestyle), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:01 (twenty-two years ago)

about 1100 of p&j's voters are critics for daily papers who "cast no votes for singles" and vote for roots rock bands you've never heard of

― strongo hulkington's ghost (dubplatestyle), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:02 (twenty-two years ago)

reality = more like da capo 200x

― mark p (Mark P), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:03 (twenty-two years ago)

Considering their current wave of popularity, I'd get ready for the eventual fallout.

(x-post)

about 1100 of p&j's voters are critics for daily papers who "cast no votes for singles" and vote for roots rock bands you've never heard of

But wouldn't they still be considered popular among the crits?

― Nichole Graham (Nichole Graham), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:03 (twenty-two years ago)

Predict Pazz & Jop 2003
Predict the Pazz & Jop Top 10 now

― jaymc (jaymc), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:07 (twenty-two years ago)

Most glaring ommision above, off the top of my head: Neil Young

Most glaring overestimations of how high critics will rate them: Dizzie Rascal, New Pornographers, Ted Leo, Four Tet, Ryan Adams, Super Furry Animals, Gibbons and Mann, Manitoba, Cursive.

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:41 (twenty-two years ago)

And oh yeah, Luomo. Whoever they are. (Hi Michaelangelo!)

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:47 (twenty-two years ago)

― strongo hulkington's ghost (dubplatestyle), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:48 (twenty-two years ago)

And maybe I'm wrong about Ryan Adams, who knows. I kinda assumed that nobody cared about that schmuck anymore, but hey, I'm not in Idaho. Critics have gotta care about SOMEBODY in Idaho this year, right?

(Actually, I don't think Idaho has any people we send ballots too. So if you review records in Idaho, now matter how half-assedly, please email me NOW, okay? I'd like to fill that hole in our electorate.)

(Nothing against Idaho, by the way. At least they're smart enough not to like Manitoba there.)

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:51 (twenty-two years ago)

also, potatoes.

― strongo hulkington's ghost (dubplatestyle), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:53 (twenty-two years ago)

Call the phone number here, I guess.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 20:56 (twenty-two years ago)

God, I love those club names.

― Sam J. (samjeff), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:01 (twenty-two years ago)

You know it's all about Desperado's Outlaw.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:18 (twenty-two years ago)

This seems like a real bad year for singles, despite that whole "best 100 singles of 2003" thread. At least what I think will be remembered as classics, or compared to the last few years... the hip-pop high seems to have ended. I hope beyonce wins

― Vic, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:21 (twenty-two years ago)

Wrong.

There have been a ZILLION good hip-hop singles this year. (I counted.)

Also, it's quite possible that Pink and Justin Timberlake will finish higher than Luomo and Manitoba, in case anybody's interested.

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:26 (twenty-two years ago)

what's pazz and jop?

― jed (jed_e_3), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:33 (twenty-two years ago)

new Homestar Runner characters

― nate detritus (natedetritus), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:36 (twenty-two years ago)

whoa, I guess I brushed up against official rockcrit opinion!

― Vic (Vic), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:38 (twenty-two years ago)

i hope something random like lucinda williams doesnt win again, just because a lot of people put her in the lower half of their lists, which enables her to accumulate mysterious gonzo points

― Vic (Vic), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:41 (twenty-two years ago)

but it would be pretty funny if it happened

― Vic (Vic), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:42 (twenty-two years ago)

http://www.ccchronicle.com/back/2001-05-14/images/homestar2.jpg

― Dom Passantino (Dom Passantino), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:51 (twenty-two years ago)

Timberlake surely last year?

― jaymc (jaymc), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:54 (twenty-two years ago)

And there will be no notable album releases during November?

― Geir Hongro (GeirHong), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 21:59 (twenty-two years ago)

several albums listed on this thread come out in november

― cinniblount (James Blount), Tuesday, 4 November 2003 22:03 (twenty-two years ago)

What does "Timberlake surely last year" mean? Lots of people will vote for it this year anyway (myself included), and it will quite possibly carry over its 2002 point total. (That will happen with other albums too, by the way -- last year, it happened with SEVERAL.)

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 22:08 (twenty-two years ago)

I.e., I wouldn't be surprised if Sean Paul finishes, too.

― chuck, Tuesday, 4 November 2003 22:09 (twenty-two years ago)

Chuck is absolutely right about hip-hop radio at the moment. Best streak since at least the Craig Mack/Biggie days of 1995 and maybe since like 1991-92 (Cypress Hill, Black Sheep, Tribe, Dre, Ice Cube, PE, House of Pain and many other classics). I'm gonna have bitch of time deciding what to put #1 and the only two rock singles that may end up on the list at this moment are "Hardest Button to Button" and Korn's "Right Now."

― Chris O., Tuesday, 4 November 2003 23:18 (twenty-two years ago)

Hip hop radio has never weakened! Lest we forget the magical highs we felt whilst No Limit reigned supreme.

― cunty bollocks (Gear!), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:23 (twenty-two years ago)

Hi Chuck! The Luomo isn't even out in America till early '04, wtf is it doing in that top 40?!

I still think the New Pornographers will finish a lot higher than Chuck (and a few other people) does, and I have hopes of Jaxx hitting top 10 (Rooty was 13th in 2001, a year with a lot more competition, at least crit-consensus-wise), but I know those hopes are just that, hopes.

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:29 (twenty-two years ago)

This thread gives me no reason to believe this year's P&J list will be no less infuriating than previous ones. Though I probably won't get as bothered as Xgau (haha I voted for Wilco and BY GOD I'D DO IT AGAIN!).

Neil Young's totally on my list. Jesus, if you can't find ten albums better than Timberlake's in the last 14 months you just aren't trying.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:32 (twenty-two years ago)

Neil Young apologists amuse the hell out of me

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:37 (twenty-two years ago)

oh yeah I forgot to admit that apologist was totally the wrong fuckin' word back in that thread.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:38 (twenty-two years ago)

yeah especially considering you were talking out your ass even if you had used the right word!

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:46 (twenty-two years ago)

I thought you liked Daft Punks.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 01:50 (twenty-two years ago)

oh miccio - wrong countermove!

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:00 (twenty-two years ago)

new pornographers finishes higher than mr. eddy thinks

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:01 (twenty-two years ago)

also: WTF - THEY KILLED JOCKBEAT?!!! WTF?!!!!!

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:01 (twenty-two years ago)

Re: New Pornographers

I think "The Laws Have Changed" deserves to finish high among the singles category, but Electric Version shouldn't even make the top 30.

― Johnny Fever (johnny fever), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:07 (twenty-two years ago)

I'm kinda curious if David Bowie's new one is gonna place high. There really hasn't been that many albums for the fogeys to latch onto (apologies to all non-fogey Bowie fans out here). Iggy Pop?

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:10 (twenty-two years ago)

bowie's new one? is that a joke?

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:12 (twenty-two years ago)

what was the last bowie to place top 30 p&j?

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:12 (twenty-two years ago)

as I said, I really have no idea what the fogeys are gonna vote for this year. actually, just checked and Bowie was only 109 last year. nevermind.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:14 (twenty-two years ago)

haha maybe it'll just be Steve Earle and Elvis Costello AGAIN.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:14 (twenty-two years ago)

they're gonna vote for lucinda and rufus just like they did two years ago.

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:15 (twenty-two years ago)

haha - maybe those sacd remasters of the dylan catalogue will chart

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:15 (twenty-two years ago)

Now I am so glad
that I never heard N.P.,
29 others [off the above list, or Neil Young either, but all these extra syllables are messing up my already ruined rep]

― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:20 (twenty-two years ago)

dude, while I remain impressed by the haikus, I for one would totally not rag on you for dropping it.

New Pornographers suck.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:21 (twenty-two years ago)

though not as much as My Morning Jacket (a.k.a. Neil Young IS Baby Jessica!)

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:23 (twenty-two years ago)

I for one want you to write haiku forever and ever and ever

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:29 (twenty-two years ago)

the day haikunym
drops haiku is
the day I make yalls cards

(I don't do haiku myself)

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:34 (twenty-two years ago)

I do not ask of
other people what
I cannot do myself...see?

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:38 (twenty-two years ago)

whatever morpheus

― cinniblount (James Blount), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 02:38 (twenty-two years ago)

oh oh oh oh oh oh! New Al Green album!

― nate detritus (natedetritus), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:13 (twenty-two years ago)

(that could be a response to "guess the fogey album"; problem is I've heard a couple tracks from it and it's butter)

― nate detritus (natedetritus), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:13 (twenty-two years ago)

even the poorly written reviews of the Al Green I've read so far (i.e. all of them) have been fairly persuasive. for one thing, he's still got his voice (cf. Solomon Burke)

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:21 (twenty-two years ago)

Al Green is dropping way too late in the year to stir up Pazz and Jop.

― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:28 (twenty-two years ago)

Just glancing over the predictions at the head of the thread, I'm thinking Blur, Malkmus and Liz Phair will be way down in the poll, though I do kind of dig half that Jicks album.

― Bruce Urquhart (Bruce Urquhart), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:38 (twenty-two years ago)

But now that I've heard two of the Al Green tracks I kinda take it back.

― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:41 (twenty-two years ago)

Blur...will be way down in the poll

Not if I have anything to do with it (and I do).

― Johnny Fever (johnny fever), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 03:55 (twenty-two years ago)

Now you just have to convince the hundreds and hundreds of other pollsters to include Blur on their ballots.
I think it might be a tough sell.

― Bruce Urquhart (Bruce Urquhart), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 04:07 (twenty-two years ago)

Well, maybe it will be further down the list that I think it deserves -- but at least I'll have done my part...

― Johnny Fever (johnny fever), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 05:03 (twenty-two years ago)

>>if you can't find ten albums better than Timberlake's in the last 14 months you just aren't trying.<<

Horseshit, Anthony:

another list of new albums i can play all the way through without hardly getting sick to my stomach at all

And after you link to ALL the previous lists, tell me how many of those *you've* "tried," okay? (P.s.: Those are only the GOOD ones!)

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:16 (twenty-two years ago)

>>New Pornographers suck.<<

Well, at least we agree on some things.

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:19 (twenty-two years ago)

What I think about Liz Phair's album is that some people who list it (i.e: not me, though I still think it's a really good record) will give it LOTS of votes. So I'm pretty sure it will finish -- and top 20 is not entirely out of the quesiton, I bet. The equally deserving Malkmus album may NOT finish, which will be the first time in the history of rock criticism (or at least since the *Demolition Plot J-7* EP or whatever) that the singer of Pavement will be UNDERRATED.

New Pornographers probably don't quite "suck," actually. I really don't have feelings about them one way or the other, but near as I can tell, their new album got LESS favorable reviews than their previous one. Same with Lucinda, who I bet will be top 30 at best.

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:26 (twenty-two years ago)

the biggest crime will be that T.I. is shut out. he deserves bettah.

― Haikunym (Haikunym), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:27 (twenty-two years ago)

Last Bowie top 30: *Let's Dance,* probably, though I could be wrong.

Last Iggy top 30: *New Values,* I think-- if it finished that high.

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:28 (twenty-two years ago)

Chuck, I know that technically you can vote for albums released last year -- something about if the album had more impact this year, etc. -- I just couldn't imagine that Justified would have that many carry-over votes, since it was such a high-profile release. (I mean, wasn't the whole reason why White Blood Cells got on so many lists for both '01 and '02 was that it was re-released on V2 in '02?)

― jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:51 (twenty-two years ago)

White Blood Cells placed fourth in '01, it'd have to have gotten enough votes to place in the top 20 of '02 to have carried over--not likely with a 4th place finish. Justin, on the other hand, placed 128th in 2002. so he will almost CERTAINLY finish top 40 if/when people vote for it as a "late-breaking" album. and "Rock Your Body" will definitely be in the top 40 (if not 20, if not 10 or 5) singles.

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:59 (twenty-two years ago)

ditto "Cry Me a River," duh

― M Matos (M Matos), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 19:59 (twenty-two years ago)

*Justified* got 92 points on nine ballots last year. If it gets 47 points this year (i.e.: half of 92), those 92 points will carry over. (Last year, Wilco, the Hives, Drive By Truckers, Andrew WK, Super Furry Animals, the Soundtrack of Our Lives, and the Yeah Yeahs all carried over points from the previous year to finish in the Top 40. *Justified* has been breaking big hit singles all year, and that's one way that previous-year albums -- all the way back to *Off the Wall* in 1980, if I remember right, not to mention 1983's winner, *Thriller* -- have placed high in subsequent years. Rerelease on bigger labels is ANOTHER way, but it's hardly the ONLY way, you know?)

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 20:05 (twenty-two years ago)

Pink just missed finishing top 40 last year in much the same way.

― chuck, Wednesday, 5 November 2003 20:08 (twenty-two years ago)

Okay, good points, Matos and Chuck.

― jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 20:13 (twenty-two years ago)

(Maybe what I was assuming that people wouldn't think to vote for it when assessing their 2003 lists -- but it seems like more people probably take advantage of the last-year loophole than I suspected.)

― jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 20:17 (twenty-two years ago)

My last-year loophole votes'll probably be Northern State and tATu.

― Anthony Miccio (Anthony Miccio), Wednesday, 5 November 2003 23:48 (twenty-two years ago)

Timberlake's album is huge, even if it is derivative and bores me to tears.

You wanna talk sucky? That Cursive album is totally wretched.

Is Cat Power really going to hit 13th (according to the first post)? If that's the case then a lot more women should be photographed with their pubes hanging out. Because that album didn't have nearly the buzz of her last few. That to me seems the most over optimistic call. And actually, same with Blur.

My only hope for P&J is that if Wilco wins again, Xgau will get the name of the drummer right in the cover story this time.

― don weiner, Thursday, 6 November 2003 04:31 (twenty-two years ago)

A few R&B things that I think and/or hope will do well: Calvin Richardson, Anthony Hamilton, Aretha single, possibly Dave Hollister (top 100?), plus that English teenager (Stone?).

― Dylan, Thursday, 6 November 2003 06:22 (twenty-two years ago)

I don't know about Cat Power's buzz as far as being in the "media eye," but most of the reviews of You Are Free that I read at least seemed to think it was her best record yet.

― jaymc (jaymc), Thursday, 6 November 2003 07:08 (twenty-two years ago)

The equally deserving Malkmus album may NOT finish, which will be the first time in the history of rock criticism (or at least since the *Demolition Plot J-7* EP or whatever) that the singer of Pavement will be UNDERRATED

Amen to that. Or at least the part about the new Malkmus being underrated. That's one record from this year that I actually appreciate even more now that when I first heard it.

― o. nate (onate), Thursday, 6 November 2003 18:25 (twenty-two years ago)

Though actually, when I say "underrated," I just mean compared to his earlier stuff and to many albums that are bound to finish higher than it in the poll. Which is to say, though I'll feel he really got gyped if he doesn't finish in the top 40, that doesn't mean I actually think it's one of the 40 best albums that came out this year, per se'.

― chuck, Thursday, 6 November 2003 18:39 (twenty-two years ago)

Well, that's fair enough. The faintess of the praise is outweighed by the unlikeliness (and cachet) of the source! Unlike Mr. Eddy, I do think that post-early-EPs Pavement did some worthwhile things, but I would grant that this album is better than the first Malkmus solo, Terror Twilight, and (taken as a whole) Wowee Zowee.

― o. nate (onate), Thursday, 6 November 2003 19:20 (twenty-two years ago)

I want to start a plot to have Elephant Man win Pazz and Jop. I don't particularly care what for. I want a coronation ceremony, with a crown and and an ermine coat and some diamonte jewellry.

― Tim Finney (Tim Finney), Thursday, 6 November 2003 22:49 (twenty-two years ago)

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